McKinsey Studie: New Rules for Retail Banking

Rewriting-the-rules-Succeeding-in-the-new-retail-banking-landscape.McK

EIN SCHÖPFERISCHER ÖKONOM

FURCHE-Kolumne 260 Wilfried Stadler

Bald ist es hundert Jahre her, dass Joseph A. Schumpeter im Alter von erst 36 Jahren in der ersten demokratisch gewählten Regierung der jungen „Republik Deutschösterreich“ am 15. März 1919 das Amt des Finanzministers antrat. Er war damals Universitätsprofessor in Graz und hatte es bereits in jungen Jahren zu einem Ehrendoktorat an der Columbia University gebracht. Schon früh interessierte ihn die Rolle des innovativen Unternehmers in einer von technologischen Umbrüchen bestimmten Wirtschaftswelt – später wurde daraus die Wortprägung von der „schöpferischen Zerstörung“.

Als parteiloses Mitglied des Regierungsteams von Staatskanzler Karl Renner fand er – nur wenige Monate nach dem Zusammenbruch der Donaumonarchie – eine denkbar schwierige Aufgabenstellung vor. Noch bevor das endgültige Staatsgebiet feststand, waren schon grundlegende steuerpolitische Themen zu entscheiden, ebenso – bei darniederliegender Konjunktur – Fragen der Sanierung des Staatshaushalts. Während Schumpeter Konzepte verfolgte, mit denen Wien weiterhin Finanzzentrum auch für die Nachfolgestaaten bleiben sollte, drängte sein sozialdemokratischer Kontrahent Otto Bauer als Außenminister auf eine Währungsunion mit Deutschland, um den in der Verfassung der jungen Republik ausdrücklich vorgesehenen Anschluss an den großen Nachbarn vorzubereiten. Das alles spielte sich parallel zum Ringen um den Vertrag von St. Germain ab, der dem jungen Staat im September 1919 nicht nur hohe Reparationszahlungen sondern auch das Verbot eines Zusammenschlusses mit Deutschland auferlegte.

The Big Tech/FinTech Disruption

Feb 20, 2019 Howard Davies, Project Syndicate

Howard Davies, the first chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority (1997-2003), is Chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland. He was Director of the London School of Economics (2003-11) and served as Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry.

A new report by the Financial Stability Board argues that the Big Tech could “affect the degree of concentration and contestability in financial services, with both potential benefits and risks for financial stability.” Managing the risks will require much more than vigilance by banking supervisors.

LONDON – As its Valentine’s Day present to the world, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) in Basel published a report on financial technology, or fintech, and market structure in financial services. The subtitle was more insightful, and revealed the authors’ intentions: “market developments and potential financial stability implications.”

This Time Really Is Different

Feb 20, 2019 Christopher Smart, Project Syndicate

Christopher Smart is Head of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Research at Barings and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was a special assistant to the US president for International Economics, Trade, and Investment (2013-2015) and Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Europe and Eurasia (2009-13).

Business cycles wouldn’t be cycles if there were not similarities in how firms confront changing market conditions over time. But as the current cycle nears its inevitable end, investors should not lose sight of the unprecedented technological, political, and liquidity risks that will make the next cycle uniquely perilous.

BOSTON – Respectable investors aren’t supposed to say, “This time is different.” But, given the market gyrations in recent months, they would do well to keep an eye on what really is different from the last time the business cycle turned.

Brexit’s Lost World

Feb 20, 2019 Ngaire Woods, Project Syndicate

Ngaire Woods is Founding Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford.

When the British electorate voted nearly three years ago to leave Europe behind, the world looked very different than it does today. Instead of a vibrant multinational order, Britain now faces a world challenged by Donald Trump’s presidency, cooler relations with China, and electoral manipulation by hostile powers.

OXFORD – Dramatic changes have swept the world since British voters decided in 2016 to leave the European Union. None of them could have been easily foreseen in 2016, but their occurrence makes avoiding a no-deal Brexit a matter of urgent national security for the UK.

Three shifts, in particular, have created a more hostile environment for a plucky country wanting to set out on its own. First, the global rules-based system has been seriously weakened. Second, China no longer looks like such a good partner for the United Kingdom. And, third, tech platforms have left democracy in Britain – and elsewhere – increasingly vulnerable to foreign interference.