Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Finanzkrise’

European Threats

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2018

December 7, 2018

Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember.

That makes me an extremely unusual American. Most of us never visit Europe, except maybe for a rare dream vacation. And that’s okay because our own country is wonderful and has a lifetime of sights to see. But it does affect our perspective on the world. Many of us don’t fully grasp how important Europe is to the US and global economy.

We may soon get a lesson on that. I’ve talked about Italy’s ongoing debt crisis, which is not improving, but Europe has other problems, too. Worse, events are coalescing such that several potential crises—all major on their own—could strike at the same time, and not too long from now. As I’ve been saying for about three years, there is no reason for the US to have a recession on its own. I think events elsewhere will push us into it, and Europe is a really big current risk. I know from my visits to Europe and discussions with friends there, they see all sorts of problems with Trump and particularly his tariffs.

However, another concern is that the various actors in Europe are not playing nice with each other. I tell my European friends the same forces that yielded Trump are coming to a European country near them. In some places, they already have. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Tiefer Blick: Billiges Geld hat zu neuen Exzessen an den Finanzmärkten geführt

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Ein wesentlicher, sehr offener und mutiger Beitrag von Andreas Schnauder aus dem heutigen Standard (hfk)

Standard Tiefer Blick

 

 

 

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From Economic Crisis to World War III

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Qian Liu

Qian Liu is an economist based in China.

The response to the 2008 economic crisis has relied far too much on monetary stimulus, in the form of quantitative easing and near-zero (or even negative) interest rates, and included far too little structural reform. This means that the next crisis could come soon – and pave the way for a large-scale military conflict.

BEIJING – The next economic crisis is closer than you think. But what you should really worry about is what comes after: in the current social, political, and technological landscape, a prolonged economic crisis, combined with rising income inequality, could well escalate into a major global military conflict.

The 2008-09 global financial crisis almost bankrupted governments and caused systemic collapse. Policymakers managed to pull the global economy back from the brink, using massive monetary stimulus, including quantitative easing and near-zero (or even negative) interest rates.

But monetary stimulus is like an adrenaline shot to jump-start an arrested heart; it can revive the patient, but it does nothing to cure the disease. Treating a sick economy requires structural reforms, which can cover everything from financial and labor markets to tax systems, fertility patterns, and education policies.

Policymakers have utterly failed to pursue such reforms, despite promising to do so. Instead, they have remained preoccupied with politics. From Italy to Germany, forming and sustaining governments now seems to take more time than actual governing. And Greece, for example, has relied on money from international creditors to keep its head (barely) above water, rather than genuinely reforming its pension system or improving its business environment. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Unternehmensschulden gefährden das Finanzsystem

Posted by egloetzl - 3. Dezember 2018

Neue Solidarität 48/2018

Der Zustrom von Geldern aus dem „umgedrehten Carrytrade“ hat vor allem die Aktienkurse und die Unternehmensschulden aufgebläht. Ein „Kamingespräch“ mit dem EIR-Wirtschaftsexperten Paul Gallagher.

Die drohende Gefahr eines Finanzkrachs war am 15. November das Thema des wöchentlichen „Kamingesprächs“ (Fireside Chat), einer Telefonkonferenz mit Aktivisten des LaRouche-Aktionskomitees aus den gesamten USA. Zu Gast war der EIR-Wirtschaftsredakteur Paul Gallagher, der insbesondere die gefährliche Entwicklung der Unternehmensschulden analysierte und warnte, der „Trump-Aufschwung“, von dem in Amerika häufig die Rede ist, könnte schon sehr bald zuende sein, „denn wir sind mit der Gefahr einer Explosion des Finanzsystems konfrontiert“. In diesem Zusammenhang sei das Programm, für das die amerikanische LaRouche-Bewegung eintritt, jetzt ganz entscheidend. Wir geben im folgenden eine Zusammenfassung von Gallaghers Argumentation.

Die Beschäftigung in der Industrie und allgemein im Produktionssektor sei zuletzt zwar recht deutlich gestiegen, „womit der Trend mindestens der letzten anderthalb Jahrzehnte – eigentlich ein Trend, der bis in die 1980er Jahre zurückreicht – in den letzten beiden Jahren wenigstens zeitweilig umgekehrt wurde“. Das habe Präsident Trump bisher eine gewisse Unterstützung gesichert. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Seventh-Inning Debt Stretch

Posted by hkarner - 19. November 2018

November 16, 2018

Within the closed system called Earth, we are much better at creating debt than eliminating it. But when we have too much, we eventually eliminate it in painful and unpleasant ways via some kind of debt crisis. This has happened over and over again throughout history.

Today we’ll look at a new book by Ray Dalio called Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises in which he examines those debt cycles and what we can do about them. I read it on my recent trip to Frankfurt and I highly recommend you do the same. That link is for Amazon but you can also get a free PDF copy here. I read it on my Kindle so I could highlight and save notes in the cloud for later reference. Worth every penny of the $14.99 I spent.

At a minimum, you should read the first 60 pages, which explain his principles and thoughts. The rest of the book dives deep in the weeds of 48 modern debt crises, sorting them into different types and then analyzing each type. Data wonks will love that part. Ray gives us a brilliant tour de force examination of how debt crises arise and what you can do when one strikes.

At first blush, you will think that Ray is more optimistic than I am about the next debt crisis and an eventual event which I called The Great Reset, which I’ve written about extensively this year. I see The Great Reset as a generation-scarring economic cataclysm. Debt crises, while painful, have a fundamentally different character.

Ray’s book has helped me refine what I mean by The Great Reset. We’ll explore this more in future letters but here is one very important, critical, point:

 It is possible we will have another debt crisis separate from The Great Reset I envision. Indeed, it may be quite likely. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Give Italy’s Government a Chance

Posted by hkarner - 19. November 2018

Bill Emmott is a former editor-in-chief of The Economist.

Given the poor track record of populist economic policies, it is understandable that the European Commission’s first instinct is to take a hard line against the Italian government’s proposed 2019 budget. But in doing so, it is condemning Italy to continued economic stagnation, and risking a much larger political crisis.

LONDON – In Europe, hardly anyone has a good word to say about Italy’s upstart ruling coalition, which comprises the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) and the nationalist League party. The only disagreement is between those who want to penalize Italy immediately for defying eurozone budget rules and those who are willing to delay punishment, or at least administer it more slowly. But here’s an idea: Why not eschew punishment altogether and give Italy’s government a chance?

The reason is not that the coalition is particularly likeable. It isn’t. M5S goes out of its way to insult and threaten critical journalists, and the League disparages immigrants and badgers local governments that show hospitality toward asylum seekers who have risked their lives crossing the Mediterranean. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Banken in Europa taumeln in die nächste Finanzkrise

Posted by hkarner - 5. November 2018

Dank an J.G. Wie immer, eine ganz scharfe Analyse von R. Barazon (hfk)

DWN, Roland Barazon, 5/11/2018

Banken in Europa taumeln in die nächste Finanz-Krise – DWN

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Blame the Economists?

Posted by hkarner - 5. November 2018

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

Ever since the 2008 financial crash and subsequent recession, economists have been pilloried for failing to foresee the crisis, and for not convincing policymakers of what needed to be done to address it. But the upheavals of the past decade were more a product of historical contingency than technocratic failure.

BERKELEY – Now that we are witnessing what looks like the historic decline of the West, it is worth asking what role economists might have played in the disasters of the past decade.

From the end of World War II until 2007, Western political leaders at least acted as if they were interested in achieving full employment, price stability, an acceptably fair distribution of income and wealth, and an open international order in which all countries would benefit from trade and finance. True, these goals were always in tension, such that we sometimes put growth incentives before income equality, and openness before the interests of specific workers or industries. Nevertheless, the general thrust of policymaking was toward all four objectives. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Economic Brake Lights

Posted by hkarner - 3. November 2018

By John Mauldin

November 2, 2018

Zombies and Unicorns
Missing Investment
The Deficit and Debt Drag on the Economy
Swimming in Liquidity

But, like Cinderella at the ball, you must heed one warning or everything will turn into pumpkins and mice: Mr. Market is there to serve you, not to guide you. It is his pocketbook, not his wisdom, that you will find useful. If he shows up some day in a particularly foolish mood, you are free to either ignore him or to take advantage of him, but it will be disastrous if you fall under his influence. Indeed, if you aren’t certain that you understand and can value your business far better than Mr. Market, you don’t belong in the game. As they say in poker, “If you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy.”

Warren Buffett (b. 1930), 1987 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat its mistakes.

—George Santayana (1863–1952), Spanish-American philosopher

Those who don’t study history are doomed to repeat it. Yet those who do study history are doomed to stand by helplessly while everyone else repeats it.

—Tom Toro (b. 1982), American cartoonist for The New Yorker Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rom bereitet Bankenrettung vor

Posted by hkarner - 1. November 2018

Dank an J.G.
31. Oktober 2018, 07:00, derstandard.at

Italiens Regierung trifft Vorkehrungen für Bankenhilfen. Immer mehr vermögende Italiener bringen ihr Geld in die Schweiz und auch nach Österreich

Rom – Regierungschef Giuseppe Conte hat Wirtschaftsminister Giovanni Tria mit der Vorbereitung von Bankenhilfen beauftragt. Rom will vorerst die Ergebnisse des Stresstests für Banken vom 2. November abwarten. Bereits der vorige Premierminister Paolo Gentiloni hatte einen Bankenrettungsfonds in der Höhe von 20 Milliarden Euro eingerichtet, wovon noch 15 Mrd. genutzt werden können. In den Genuss des Fonds sollen primär die Krisenbanken Carige, Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), die Volksbank von Bari und der Credito Valtellinese gelangen.

Kapitalflucht

Mehrere Vermögensverwalter berichten derweilen von einer wachsenden Kapitalflucht vermögender italienischer Familien Richtung Schweiz und Österreich. Und Italiens Anleger werden immer skeptischer: Laut monatlicher Umfrage des Analysehauses Sentix bei mehr als 1000 Anlegern in der Eurozone hat sich der Anteil der Investoren, die ein Ausscheiden mindestens eines Landes aus der Eurozone innerhalb der nächsten zwölf Monate erwarten, von 8,9 auf 13,2 Prozent erhöht. In Italien liegt der Anteil über dem Schnitt: 15,1 Prozent der befragten Privatanleger halten einen Austritt Italiens aus der Eurozone in der Zeit für möglich. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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