Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Finanzkrise’

Japanified World Ahead

Posted by hkarner - 15. April 2019

By John Mauldin

April 12, 2019

Losing Decades
Too Much, Too Fast
A $10 Trillion Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Mastering Private Markets

Regular readers may have noticed me slowly losing confidence in the economy. Your impression is correct and there’s a good reason for it, as I will explain today. The facts have changed so my conclusions are changing, too.

I still think the economy is okay for now. I still see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point this growth phase will end, either in recession or an extended flat period (even flatter than the last decade, which says a lot). And I still think we are headed toward a global credit crisis I’ve dubbed The Great Reset.

What’s evolved is my judgment on the coming slowdown’s severity and duration. I think the rest of the world will enter a period something like Japan endured following 1990, and is still grappling with today. It won’t be the end of the world; Japan is still there, but the little growth it’s had was due mainly to exports. That won’t work when every major economy is in the same position.

Describing this decline as “Japanification” may be unfair to Japan but it’s the best paradigm we have. The good news is it will spread slowly. The bad news is it will end slowly, too. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Weak Spots in Global Financial System Could Amplify Shocks

Posted by hkarner - 11. April 2019

By Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci

In the United States, the ratio of corporate debt to GDP is at record-high levels. In several European countries, banks are overloaded with government bonds. In China, bank profitability is declining, and capital levels remain low at small and medium-size lenders.

Vulnerabilities like these are on the rise across advanced and emerging market economies, according to the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report. They aren’t all setting off alarm bells just yet. But if they continue to build, especially with still-easy financial conditions, they could amplify shocks to the global economy, raising the odds of a severe economic downturn a few years down the road.

With the right mix of policies, countries can sustain growth while keeping vulnerabilities in check.

This poses a dilemma for policymakers seeking to counter a slowing global economy, as discussed in the World Economic Outlook. By taking a patient approach to monetary policy, central banks can accommodate growing downside risks to the economy. But if financial conditions remain easy for too long, vulnerabilities will continue to build, and the odds of a sharp drop in economic growth at some later point will be higher. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Capitalism Gone Wild

Posted by hkarner - 6. April 2019

By John Mauldin

April 5, 2019

Unwise Investment
Zombie Companies
Gummed-Up Economy
Uncreative Destruction
The Drive for Scale
Helicopter Governments

Recession is coming. We can debate the timing, but the economy will turn decisively downward at some point. My own analysis, looking at the data available on April 4, says recession isn’t likely this year but unfortunately looks very probable in 2020.

In addition to when it will happen, there’s also the question of how deep the next recession will be. A shallow downturn wouldn’t be fun, but compared to the last one might feel relatively refreshing.

Alas, I don’t think we will be that lucky. I think the opposite: The next recession will be deeper, longer and far more painful to many more people than your average recession, and could persist as long as the last one. That is because the next recession in all likelihood will be truly global. If you sailed through 2007–2009 without your lifestyle changing, I wouldn’t assume it will happen that way again.

Ironically, but not surprisingly, it will be the response to the last recession that makes the next one so much worse. Part of the reason is that investors once again “learned” that if you simply stay the course, the market will get you back to where you were and more. The massive move into low-fee index investing instead of active management will make the next recession more painful. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Zentralbank der Zentralbanken: IWF hat nicht genügend Geld, um auf neue Krise zu reagieren

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Dank an H.G.

Andere sollen einspringen

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 29.03.19 15:53 Uhr

Der IWF hat nicht ausreichend finanzielle Mittel zur Verfügung, um eine mögliche neue
Krise abzufangen, sagt der Chef der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich.
Nach Ansicht des Chefs der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich (BIZ), Agustin Carstens,
wäre im Falle einer neuen Finanzkrise selbst der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) machtlos.
Carstens machte seine Aussagen mit Blick auf den türkischen Finanzmarkt, welcher seit Tagen von
starken Verkaufswellen erfasst wird und der die Keimzelle einer Krise des Weltfinanzsystems bilden
könnte.

Der IWF habe nicht genügend Geld, das er verleihen könnte, wenn plötzlich eine größere Krise in den
Schwellenländern ausbricht, die sich auf mehrere Staaten auswirkt, sagte Carstens auf einer Konferenz
bei der französischen Zentralbank am Donnerstag. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s Decade of Sweeping Economic Change

Posted by hkarner - 3. April 2019

Zhang Jun is Dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University and Director of the China Center for Economic Studies, a Shanghai-based think-tank.

The changes China’s economy has undergone over the last decade are sweeping, unprecedented, and essential. The world would be far better served by an effort to understand them than by attempting to prove that the country’s achievements are less impressive than they are.

SHANGHAI – For the West, the year 2008 marked the beginning of a difficult period of crisis, recession, and uneven recovery. For China, 2008 was also an important turning point, but one followed by a decade of rapid progress that few could have foreseen.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Debt Crisis Is Coming Soon

Posted by hkarner - 22. März 2019

Date: 21-03-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Martin Feldstein

To avoid economic distress, the government has to reduce future entitlement spending.

The most dangerous domestic problem facing America’s federal government is the rapid growth of its budget deficit and national debt.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the deficit this year will be $900 billion, more than 4% of gross domestic product. It will surpass $1 trillion in 2022. The federal debt is now 78% of GDP. By 2028, it is projected to be nearly 100% of GDP and still rising. All this will have very serious economic consequences, and the CBO understates the problem. It has to base its projections on current law—in this case, the levels of spending and the future tax rules and rates that appear in law today.

Those levels don’t match realistic predictions. Current law projects that defense spending will decline as a share of GDP, from a very low 3.1% now to about 2.5% over the next 10 years. None of the military and civilian defense experts with whom I’ve spoken believe that will happen, given America’s global responsibilities and the need to modernize U.S. military equipment. It is likelier that defense spending will stay around 3% of GDP or even increase in the coming decade. And if the outlook for defense spending is increased, the Democratic House majority will insist that the nondefense discretionary spending should rise to match its trajectory. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can Economics Shake Its Shibboleths?

Posted by hkarner - 16. März 2019

Date: 15-03-2019
Source: by Jim O’Neill

Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chairman of Chatham House.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, economic orthodoxies have been collapsing left and right. Under conditions of low unemployment, elusive inflation, weak productivity growth, and high profitability, economists in advanced economies may need to go back to the drawing board.

LONDON – Though economics aspires to the rigor of the natural sciences, at the end of the day it is still a social science. At no point in the past 40 years has this been more evident than it is now.

For decades, conventional macroeconomic analysis has rested on the edifice of the Phillips curve, which asserts a clear tradeoff between unemployment and inflation: when the unemployment rate falls below a certain point, inflation must rise. But this assumption has not been borne out in the decade since the 2008 financial crisis. In both the United Kingdom and the United States, for example, the unemployment rate is historically low, yet inflation remains weak.

Or consider monetary policy. Even after years of quantitative easing (QE) and ultra-low interest rates, central bankers in the advanced economies – particularly the eurozone – have continued to undershoot their inflation targets. Economists have also had to question long-held assumptions about downward nominal wage rigidity, an artifact of the 1960-70s, when organized labor was much stronger. Clearly, the idea that employees will always resist cutting wages (or workers’ hours) no longer applies. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Renewing Europe

Posted by hkarner - 6. März 2019

European citizens need to learn from the Brexit impasse and apply those lessons ahead of and after the European Parliament election in May. That means embracing reforms that advance the three goals that lie at the heart of the European project.

PARIS – Never, since World War II, has Europe been as essential. Yet never has Europe been in so much danger. Brexit stands as the symbol of that. It symbolises the crisis of Europe, which has failed to respond to its peoples’ needs for protection from the major shocks of the modern world. It also symbolises the European trap. That trap is not one of being part of the European Union. The trap is in the lie and the irresponsibility that can destroy it.

Who told the British people the truth about their post-Brexit future? Who spoke to them about losing access to the European market? Who mentioned the risks to peace in Ireland of restoring the former border? Nationalist retrenchment offers nothing; it is rejection without an alternative. And this trap threatens the whole of Europe: the anger mongers, backed by fake news, promise anything and everything.

We have to stand firm, proud and lucid, in the face of this manipulation and say first of all what today’s united Europe is. It is a historic success: the reconciliation of a devastated continent in an unprecedented project of peace, prosperity and freedom. We should never forget that. And this project continues to protect us today. What country can act on its own in the face of aggressive strategies by the major powers? Who can claim to be sovereign, on their own, in the face of the digital giants?

How would we resist the crises of financial capitalism without the euro, which is a force for the entire European Union? Europe is also those thousands of projects daily that have changed the face of our regions: the school refurbished, the road built, and the long-awaited arrival of high-speed Internet access. This struggle is a daily commitment, because Europe, like peace, can never be taken for granted. I tirelessly pursue it in the name of France to take Europe forward and defend its model. We have shown that what we were told was unattainable, the creation of a European defence capability and the protection of social rights, was in fact possible. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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In a Down Market, ETFs Could Make Things Even Worse

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2019

Date: 04-03-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal
New research suggests that the proliferation of exchange-traded funds could create problems in a volatile market

A study shows that when ETF dealers make markets, they might sometimes be selling shares that they neither own nor have borrowed.

There’s a potential problem lurking in the financial markets, and it is partly a result of exchange-traded funds.

While ETFs have been widely praised for lowering trading costs, and have soared in popularity with investors, there have been concerns dating back at least to 2011 that the profusion of ETFs based on the same or similar stocks makes markets more vulnerable in times of volatility. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Deutsche Bank Lost $1.6 Billion on a Bond Bet

Posted by hkarner - 22. Februar 2019

Date: 21-02-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

One of the banking industry’s biggest soured bets since the financial crisis involved a complex municipal-bond investment. Warren Buffett was enmeshed in the deal.

Deutsche Bank AG racked up a loss of $1.6 billion over nearly a decade on a complex municipal-bond investment that it bought in the runup to the 2008 financial crisis, and failed to confront head-on even as markets were upended and regulations tightened.

The loss, which hasn’t previously been reported, represents one of Deutsche Bank’s largest ever from a single wager—roughly quadruple its entire 2018 profit—and ranks as one of the banking industry’s biggest soured bets in the last decade. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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