Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Finanzkrise’

IWF-Chefin warnt vor wirtschaftlicher Nord-Süd-Kluft in der EU

Posted by hkarner - 17. Februar 2019

15. Februar 2019, 08:29 derstandard.at

Laut Christine Lagarde wurde die Situation seit der Finanzkrise schlechter

München – IWF-Chefin Christine Lagarde hat vor einer wachsenden wirtschaftlichen Kluft zwischen den Nord- und Südstaaten in der EU gewarnt: Während die osteuropäischen Länder in den vergangenen Jahren den Abstand zu den alten EU-Mitgliedsstaaten verringert hätten, sei die Anpassung zwischen Nord und Süd in den vergangenen 20 Jahren nicht vorangekommen. „Seit der (Finanz-)Krise ist die Situation sogar noch schlechter geworden“, sagte Lagarde am Donnerstagabend auf der Münchner Europakonferenz. Deshalb müsse nun eine Aufholjagd beginnen, wenn man die EU auch politisch stabil halten wolle. Nötig seien Strukturreformen vor allem auf drei Gebieten: Zum einen müssten die Arbeitsmärkte in Ländern wie Griechenland oder Italien flexibler werden. Lagarde verwies auf Portugal als positives Beispiel. Dort seien sehr viel mehr feste statt befristete Jobs entstanden, weil die Arbeitsgesetze flexibler geworden seien.

Gesetzliche Rahmenbedingungen verbessern

Zweitens sei es nötig, die gesetzlichen Rahmenbedingungen für Firmen zu verbessern. In Griechenland dauere es etwa neunmal so lang, eine Firma abzuwickeln, wie in Irland. „Einen gemeinsamen Versicherungsmarkt in der EU kann es aber erst geben, wenn auch die Insolvenzregeln harmonisiert sind“, sagte sie. Drittens sei es für die südlichen EU-Staaten nötig, mehr in Forschung und Entwicklung zu investieren. Italien, Portugal und Spanien hätten zwischen 2000 und 2014 durchschnittlich nur ein Prozent ihrer Wirtschaftsleistung für Innovationen ausgegeben. Zum Vergleich: In Deutschland erreichten die Forschungsausgaben 2018 erstmals die Marke von drei Prozent des BIP. (APA, Reuters, 15.2.2019) – derstandard.at/2000098046638/IWF-Chefin-warnt-vor-wirtschaftlicher-Nord-Sued-Kluft-in-der

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Financial Stability in Abnormal Times

Posted by hkarner - 5. Februar 2019

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Despite improvements in the financial system since the 2008 crisis, the piecemeal reforms that have been enacted fall far short of what is needed. And an inexorably growing financial system, combined with an increasingly toxic political environment, means that the next major financial crisis may come sooner than you think.

CAMBRIDGE – A decade on from the 2008 global financial crisis, policymakers constantly assure us that the system is much safer today. The giant banks at the core of the meltdown have scaled back their risky bets, and everyone – investors, consumers, and central bankers – is still on high alert. Regulators have worked hard to ensure greater transparency and accountability in the banking industry. But are we really all that safe?

Normally, one would say “yes.” The kind of full-blown systemic global financial crisis that erupted a decade ago is not like a typical septennial recession. The much lower frequency of systemic crises reflects two realities: policymakers respond with reforms to prevent their recurrence, and it normally takes investors, consumers, and politicians a long time to forget the last one. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Second Chance to Fix Finance

Posted by hkarner - 5. Februar 2019

Bertrand Badré

Bertrand Badré, a former managing director of the World Bank, is CEO and Founder of Blue like an Orange Sustainable Capital, and Co-Chair of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on International Governance, Public-Private Cooperation, and Sustainable Development. He is the author of Can Finance Save the World? 

Laurence Daziano is a professor of economics at Sciences Po Paris.

Despite progress since the 2008 financial crisis, reforms of the financial sector have been fragmented rather than fundamental. In particular, the system still lacks the effective holistic regulations needed to encourage the optimal global allocation of capital.

PARIS – In December 2018, US stocks recorded their biggest monthly decline since the subprime mortgage crisis. The sharp fall reflected current concerns about slower economic growth, higher interest rates, Brexit, a possible US-China trade war, and rising geopolitical uncertainty. But the recent equity-market volatility has been made worse by a global financial system that remains largely unreformed more than a decade after the 2008 crisis.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Should We Then Invest?

Posted by hkarner - 27. Januar 2019

January 25, 2019

To be absolutely certain about something, one must know everything or nothing about it.“

—Henry Kissinger, former US Secretary of State

This month I’ve discussed some possible pathways for 2019. But beyond that, for the past year or so, I have been talking about what I think may unfold over the next decade. The term I often use is The Great Reset, but in my mind it’s more than just resetting global debt.

I think a number of equally important trends, all extraordinarily eventful, some amazingly positive and some frustratingly negative, when taken all together (which we’ll have to, like it or not) will produce an era unlike anything previously seen in human history. I call it the Age of Transformation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Cleaning up Italy’s banks is proving slow and painful

Posted by hkarner - 25. Januar 2019

Date: 24-01-2019
Source: The Economist

The scars of the financial crisis will be slow to fade

“The boils that had to burst have burst,” says Mario Deaglio, an economist at the University of Turin, of Italy’s banks. The latest carbuncle to come to a head is Banca Carige, which was put into temporary administration by the European Central Bank (ecb) on January 2nd—the first time the euro-zone regulator has exercised this power. The move followed a shareholders’ meeting in December that failed to approve the first tranche of a €400m ($455m) capital increase.

The ecb appointed three administrators, including Carige’s former chief executive and chairman, giving them three months to reduce the €3bn stock of bad loans and arrange a merger. Italy’s government issued a decree to guarantee the bank’s bonds for up to €3bn, and to support a precautionary recapitalisation, if requested. On January 18th Banca Carige said it would issue government-backed bonds to the tune of €2bn, and perhaps a further €1bn. But it maintains that it will find a market solution. The administrators will present a business plan next month. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Is the World Prepared for the Next Financial Crisis?

Posted by hkarner - 25. Januar 2019

Yes, correct, Madame! (hfk)

Date: 23-01-2019
Source: foreignpolicy.com BY CHRISTINE LAGARDE

New regulations and reforms have helped, but major threats still loom.

The world in 2019 is still reckoning with the legacy of the global financial crisis, which is hardly surprising given its scale and lasting impact. Ten years on from the Lehman Brothers collapse, one question about the financial system keeps coming up: Are we safer than we were in 2008? The short answer is yes—but not safe enough. While there has been marked progress, more needs to be done, including keeping pace with potential new risks from a rapidly evolving financial landscape.

First, the progress. Banks have bigger and better capital buffers and more liquidity. Countries have taken steps to address systemic risks posed by institutions seen as too big to fail. Regulation and supervision have been strengthened; many countries have stepped up their focus on monitoring financial stability, and many now also conduct regular stress tests to check banks’ health. A substantial portion of trading in over-the-counter derivatives has shifted to safer central clearing systems.

For its part, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its ability to analyze and monitor sources of systemic risk. The IMF has improved its ability to analyze and monitor sources of systemic risk. It has partnered with national authorities to help them identify potential trouble spots, such as excessive consumer or corporate debt; develop tools to curb risks; and strengthen analysis of their financial systems.

What about areas where progress has been inadequate or where new risks have emerged? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit: Blame it on the banking crisis

Posted by hkarner - 19. Januar 2019

Nicholas Crafts 15 January 2019, vox.eu

Professor of Economics and Economic History at the University of Warwick and CEPR

The banking crisis of ten years ago was a serious policy failure (Independent Commission on Banking 2011). Leverage increased dramatically from the late 1980s to the crisis while loss-absorbing equity capital was inadequate. Regulation that addressed these issues could have maintained financial stability at minimal cost to economic growth (Miles et al. 2013).

The banking crisis was damaging in many ways, most obviously through the output and fiscal costs of the recessionary shock that it imposed on the economy. The key point for the argument of this column is that it reduced the level of potential output in the economy and accordingly raised the structural budget deficit. This effect comes through decreases in capital, human capital and total factor productivity. A conventional estimate might be that the crisis of ten years ago probably reduced the level of potential output in the UK by somewhere between 3.8% and 7.5% (Table 1).

Table 1 Estimates of the impact of the banking crisis on the level of UK potential output (% GDP) Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Building Defenses Against the Next Economic Downturn

Posted by hkarner - 18. Januar 2019

By David Lipton

The global economy faces a number of complex challenges from technological change and globalization, and the lingering effects of the 2008-9 financial crisis. At the same time, we are witnessing lower levels of trust in the core institutions that have helped to deliver tremendous growth and prosperity over the past 40 years. These developments threaten to fragment the international order that has governed the global economy.

History suggests such a downturn is somewhere over the horizon.

The symptoms of this fragmentation include rising trade tensions, discord with and within some multilateral institutions, and a dilution of efforts to address the profound cross-border challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, cyber-crime, and refugee flows. The question inevitably arises: if this is occurring at a time of solid global growth and relative financial stability, what might the next economic downturn produce? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s Writing on the Wall

Posted by hkarner - 10. Januar 2019

Harold James

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of the new book The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.

It is often said that Italy’s divergence from the rest of Europe, in terms of per capita income, started either with the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 or with the adoption of the euro in 1999. But this chronology masks a more profound transformation in modern Italy.

PRINCETON – As the home of both the Roman Empire and the Renaissance, Italy has long been at the forefront of cultural developments in Europe and Western Eurasia. But it has also long served as an example of political decline. Edward Gibbon’s classic The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, after all, was meant as a warning to the author’s empire-building contemporaries.

Italy’s economic stagnation after the early seventeenth century was also held up as a cautionary tale. The nineteenth-century English critic John Ruskin implored members of Britain’s mercantile society to ponder the tragedies of Tyre and Venice. Describing Venice in “the final period of her decline,” he wrote of “a ghost upon the sands of the sea, so weak – so quiet – so bereft of all but her loveliness, that we might well doubt, as we watched her faint reflection in the mirage of the lagoon, which was the City, and which the Shadow.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Vier Gründe, im Jahr 2019 wirtschaftlich auf der Hut zu sein

Posted by hkarner - 27. Dezember 2018

Ansichtssache. Alexander Hahn, 26. Dezember 2018, 14:02 derstandard.at

Der nächste Abschwung rückt näher. Offen bleibt, wann er eintritt – und wie die vier Anlageklassen Aktien, Anleihen, Rohstoffe und Währungen reagieren

Einer Börsenweisheit zufolge verhält es sich mit Crash-Propheten wie mit stehengebliebenen Uhren: Zweimal am Tag liegen sie richtig. Wer stets vor der nächsten Krise warnt, wird irgendwann recht behalten. Derzeit leidet sowohl der Zyklus der Konjunktur als auch jener der Börse bereits an fortgeschrittener Altersschwäche – und im Lauf des Jahres 2018 mehrten sich die Warnsignale für eine nahende Trendwende nach unten. Die Wall Street rutschte gegen Ende des Jahres in negative Terrain, in Europa ging es ebenfalls mehrheitlich bergab. Es ist zwar nicht ausgemacht, dass sich diese durchwachsene Tendenz fortsetzt, dennoch sollten Investoren mit erhöhter Vorsicht auf das Jahr 2019 blicken. Ein Überblick, was für einen Abschwung spricht.

Konjunktur

Obwohl das leicht negative Wachstum der deutschen Konjunkturlokomotive im dritten Quartal unter Ökonomen als Ausreißer gilt, der den Problemen der Autoindustrie im Zuge der neuen Abgastests geschuldet ist, zeigt die wirtschaftliche Abkühlung im Nachbarland doch, dass die Zeit der Hochkonjunktur auf ihr Ende zugeht. Die gute Nachricht: Auch im nächsten Jahr soll die Wirtschaft beiderseits des Atlantiks noch wachsen, und vor 2020 geben Ökonomen einer möglichen Rezession in den USA keine Chance. Die weniger gute: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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