Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘WSJ’

World Trade Flows Grew at Slowest Pace since Financial Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 27. Februar 2017

Date: 25-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Signs of a modest pickup toward year-end

A South Korean shipping vehicle at Hamburg harbor in Germany. Global trade flows grew by 1.2% in 2016.

International trade flows grew at the slowest pace since the financial crisis in 2016, but there were signs of a modest pickup as the year drew to a close.

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis said on Friday that the volume of exports and imports of goods was 1.2% higher than in 2015, marking a slowdown from the 2% rate of growth recorded in the preceding year and the smallest rise since volumes crashed in 2009.

However, there were signs exports and imports might be reviving, with volumes up 1.1% in the final three months of the year compared with the third quarter, almost double the rate of increase in the three months to September. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2017

Date: 24-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By JAMES MACKINTOSH
Subject: Can You Make Money in a Euro Collapse?

In a euro breakup scenario, there are a few ways bond investors can protect against a redenomination into a devalued currency

As Europe is roiled by fears of a breakup of its currency, investors and lawyers have begun digging through bond documentation in the hope of finding ways to protect themselves against the possible return of the franc, lire and deutsche mark.

The plethora of bonds available offer many ways to bet on the possibility of the end of the euro. One opportunity comes from ancient bonds dating from before the single currency was created, another from bonds sold under English rather than French or Italian law. But so far, investors seem to be making significant bets on only the simplest option—that of switching to the bonds of safe countries such as Germany, even though the safety that its bonds appear to offer could prove illusory in a worst-case European breakup.

There is no sure-fire way to protect an investment against what would be the biggest default in history—the redenomination of French or Italian bonds from euros into new francs and lire. Even though the bonds would be paid in full in francs or lire, investors paid in the devalued currencies would still class it as a default. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Dow Is More than 2000 Points Above Its 200-Day Moving Average

Posted by hkarner - 23. Februar 2017

Date: 23-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Chartwatchers take note: The Dow Jones Industrial Average just did something it’s never done before.

The blue-chip index that holds names like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Boeing closed more than 2000 points above its 200-day moving average for the first time in its 120-year plus history, according to WSJ Market Data Group. The Dow closed at 20743 on Tuesday, while the gauge of its price trend was at 18688.32.

The lofty heights reached by the Dow relative to its 200-day average is a sign of how quickly the market has jumped in recent months, forcing the moving average to play catch-up. Some also see it as a sign that the market is getting ahead of itself and could be poised to reverse back toward its longer-term trend line, and caution about similar signals from the S&P 500. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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EU Moves to Stop Multinationals Reducing Taxes

Posted by hkarner - 22. Februar 2017

Date: 22-02-2017

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Finance ministers agree to plan to prevent companies from using legal loopholes to avoid taxation

BRUSSELS—European Union finance ministers on Tuesday agreed to more measures to stop international corporations from cutting their tax bills.

The proposed rules would deal with several legal loopholes that allow multinationals to avoid taxation—such as devices to shift profits and move debt to countries outside the EU where there are more generous interest deductions.

EU officials said the rules would ensure that companies didn’t take advantage of so-called double non-taxation agreements—which were originally intended to ensure a company didn’t pay tax in two different countries, but are currently being aggressively exploited. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Periphery Debt Market Welcomes New Member: France

Posted by hkarner - 22. Februar 2017

Date: 21-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Some investors are selling French government debt over concerns the country could leave the eurozone

Le PenA poll on Monday showing French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen in the lead for April’s first round of the presidential election drove yields on French 10-year bonds to jump to 1.064%.

Investors are once again selling the bonds of Europe’s peripheral economies amid political concerns. This time around, France has joined the club.

Some investors are selling French government debt, worried that the country will elect Marine Le Pen as its president, a candidate that has promised to take the country out of the eurozone. That has left French bonds behaving increasingly like their peers in the parts of Europe hit hardest by the 2011-12 sovereign-debt crisis.

It is quite a flip for Europe’s second-largest economy. After that crisis, French bonds traded with Germany’s. On Monday, a poll showing Ms. Le Pen comfortably in the lead for April’s first round of the presidential election drove yields on French 10-year bonds to jump to 1.064%. Yields rise as bond prices fall. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump Team’s Growth Forecasts Far Rosier Than Those of CBO, Private Economists

Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2017

Date: 18-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

While there are often disparities between the White House and independent agencies on growth projections, they are rarely this large

WASHINGTON—The Trump administration has drafted preliminary economic growth forecasts in its federal budget planning that rely on assumptions that are far rosier than projections made by independent agencies and most private forecasters, according to several people familiar with the discussions.

The forecasts are being revised, these people said, following an internal debate. One concern is that pressing staff economists to produce aggressive forecasts might undercut the credibility of top appointees forced to later defend those numbers.

The deliberations show the challenge the administration faces as it tries to reconcile the competing goals of cutting taxes, boosting military and infrastructure spending, preserving Medicare and Social Security programs and keeping budget deficits from soaring. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Global Risks Begin to Recede

Posted by hkarner - 17. Februar 2017

Date: 16-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

It isn’t just the Trump effect; from oil prices to Chinese outflows, the world is looking up

Oil prices are rising after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reduced production, contributing to a world-wide shift toward optimism in business surveys and markets.

It’s tempting to see surging U.S. stock prices and business confidence as all coming in response to President Donald Trump’s election.

But the upswing is global: In Europe, Japan, China and elsewhere, business surveys and markets have turned markedly more optimistic.

This is partly because investors hope that any fiscal stimulus Mr. Trump enacts will spill over to other countries. Yet a confluence of other factors is also at work: Oil prices are on an upswing thanks to production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Chinese and European economic activity picked up in the second half of last year. And, economically speaking, populism has so far been a wet firecracker. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Falling Correlations Spell Opportunity for Investors

Posted by hkarner - 17. Februar 2017

Date: 16-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

With stocks, bonds, and commodities no longer rising together, asset allocation suddenly matters again

Gold ccAsset classes with seemingly little in common, such as gold and technology stocks, are among the top performers in 2017 so far.

The tight synchronization that has characterized financial markets for much of the past decade is breaking down, presenting investors with opportunities and risks they haven’t grappled with in years.

Global stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities have parted ways in recent months, after largely rising in lockstep for most of the post-financial-crisis period.

Cross-asset correlation recently fell to its lowest level since 2006, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis of 34 indicators tracking the relative performance of different asset classes and regions.

Asset classes with seemingly little in common have shone in recent weeks. Gold, emerging-markets and technology stocks rank among the top performers in 2017 so far. The prices of government bonds issued by rich countries, after rallying to record highs in some cases last year, have declined sharply in the U.S. and Europe since mid-2016, as inflation has begun to pick up. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Spies Keep Intelligence From Donald Trump on Leak Concerns

Posted by hkarner - 17. Februar 2017

Date: 16-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Decision to withhold information underscores deep mistrust between intelligence community and president

U.S. intelligence officials have withheld sensitive intelligence from President Donald Trump because they are concerned it could be leaked or compromised, according to current and former officials familiar with the matter.

The officials’ decision to keep information from Mr. Trump underscores the deep mistrust that has developed between the intelligence community and the president over his team’s contacts with the Russian government, as well as the enmity he has shown toward U.S. spy agencies. On Wednesday, Mr. Trump accused the agencies of leaking information to undermine him.

In some of these cases of withheld information, officials have decided not to show Mr. Trump the sources and methods that the intelligence agencies use to collect information, the current and former officials said. Those sources and methods could include, for instance, the means that an agency uses to spy on a foreign government. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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French Election Puts Possibility of ‘Frexit’ on the Agenda

Posted by hkarner - 17. Februar 2017

Date: 16-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON

Two front-runners agree that the defining issue is France’s membership of the eurozone

PARIS—What’s striking about the French presidential election is the extent to which the two front-runners share a basic analysis of the choice facing the country. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing National Front, and Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old former economy minister who quit François Hollande’s government to stand as an independent, are poles apart politically. But both agree that the defining issue is France’s membership of the eurozone.

Both point to the widening divergence between Germany and France’s economic performance during the past decade as evidence that the status quo isn’t sustainable. The National Front points to a recent International Monetary Fund study that suggested the euro is up to 15% undervalued in Germany and 6% overvalued in France as proof that France is at a competitive disadvantage. It argues that the only way France can remain a member of what one party official calls the “fixed eurozone exchange-rate regime” is to pursue an internal devaluation by cutting back on social protections and driving down wages. The alternative is to quit the eurozone. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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