Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
While there are often disparities between the White House and independent agencies on growth projections, they are rarely this large
WASHINGTON—The Trump administration has drafted preliminary economic growth forecasts in its federal budget planning that rely on assumptions that are far rosier than projections made by independent agencies and most private forecasters, according to several people familiar with the discussions.
The forecasts are being revised, these people said, following an internal debate. One concern is that pressing staff economists to produce aggressive forecasts might undercut the credibility of top appointees forced to later defend those numbers.
The deliberations show the challenge the administration faces as it tries to reconcile the competing goals of cutting taxes, boosting military and infrastructure spending, preserving Medicare and Social Security programs and keeping budget deficits from soaring. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Forecast, Trump, USA, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2017
Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the IMF, is a professor at MIT Sloan, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and co-founder of a leading economics blog, The Baseline Scenario. He is the co-author, with James Kwak, of White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters to You.
JAN 30, 2017, Project Syndicate
WASHINGTON, DC – US President Donald Trump has an obvious problem with data that he doesn’t like, as he showed on his first full day in office, by attacking the media for reporting accurately the size of the crowd that attended his inauguration. It should be no less obvious that this same reliance on “alternative facts” poses a severe threat in the realm of economic policymaking.
The number of people who attended the inauguration – far less than Trump wanted to believe – could easily be inferred from the available evidence (including photographs of the National Mall and the number of subway riders). But the discussion has now broadened to the more serious question of whether millions of people voted illegally, as Trump has insisted since the election. He has implicitly conceded that he lost the popular vote by nearly three million votes, but maintained, despite all evidence to the contrary, that massive voter fraud occurred. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: alternative facts, Economy, Johnson, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 30. Januar 2017
Der Präsident und seine wirtschaftspolitischen Berater ziehen ein Resümee: In vielerlei Hinsicht wird eine Erfolgsbilanz präsentiert; es zeigt aber auch viele Baustellen und Defizite in der amerikanischen Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik auf.
Jedes Jahr im Januar legt der amerikanische Präsident der Öffentlichkeit seinen „Wirtschaftsbericht“ („Economic Report of the President“) vor. Der wird zusammen mit dem Jahresbericht des „Council of Economic Advisers“ (CEA) veröffentlicht. Das ist das offizielle wirtschaftspolitische Beratungsgremium des Präsidenten. Es besteht aus nur drei Mitgliedern, wird aber von rund 30 weiteren Ökonomen in seiner Arbeit unterstützt. Der diesjährige Bericht (s. hier) ist auch eine Art Schlussbilanz der Wirtschaftspolitik und -entwicklung der letzten acht Jahre, also der Obama Präsidentschaft, die mit dem Amtsantritt von Donald Trump letzte Woche zu Ende gegangen ist. Der Bericht präsentiert in vielerlei Hinsicht eine Erfolgsbilanz. Er zeigt aber auch viele Baustellen und Defizite in der amerikanischen Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik auf. Der mangelnde Erfolg auf einigen wichtigen Gebieten war sicher auch ein wichtiger Grund für den Wahlsieg des neuen Präsidenten, der die Welle des Populismus in Wildwest-Manier geritten ist, aber eine Volkswirtschaft in recht guter Lage erben wird. Es zeichnet sich ab, dass der neue Präsident nicht nur teilweise andere wirtschaftspolitische Ziele verfolgen, sondern auch andere Mittel und Strategien zu ihrer Erreichung einsetzen wird. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Bibow, Economy, Makroskop, Obama, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. Januar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
In meeting with car industry, U.S. president says he will speed up process of environmental permitting
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with General Motors CEO Mary Barra during a meeting with auto-industry executives in the Roosevelt Room of the White House.
President Donald Trump said businesses have to wait too long to obtain permits and vowed to create a friendlier climate for companies that want to invest in the U.S., stepping up a push to curb the flow of jobs overseas.
In a meeting at the White House Tuesday with auto industry executives, Mr. Trump said he would streamline and shorten the process by which applicants win approval to do business in the U.S.
He said environmental regulations, in particular, have become unnecessarily burdensome.
“We’re going to make the process much more simple for the oil companies and everybody else that wants to do business in the United States,” Mr. Trump said at the start of a meeting with executives from General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Automotive, Economy, Trump, USA, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 20. Januar 2017
Philippe Legrain, a former economic adviser to the president of the European Commission, is a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics’ European Institute and the author of European Spring: Why Our Economies and Politics are in a Mess – and How to Put Them Right.
JAN 19, 2017 Project Syndicate
LONDON – British Prime Minister Theresa May is leading the United Kingdom toward a very “hard” Brexit in 2019 – and potentially off a cliff, if the UK leaves the European Union without an exit or trade deal. In her January 17 speech, May outlined her objectives for negotiating with the EU, and made it clear that she will prioritize hardline Brexiteers’ demands over the country’s economic interests.
It isn’t surprising that May would choose a Brexit variant whereby Britain leaves both the EU’s single market and its customs union: she knows little, and cares even less, about economics. Her ultimate objective is to survive as Prime Minister, and she believes that controlling immigration – a longtime personal obsession – will endear her to “Leave” voters, and that ending the European Court of Justice’s jurisdiction in Britain will pacify the nationalists in her Conservative Party. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Economy, Legrain, Project Syndicate, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2017
Posted on January 16, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Today we released our update to the World Economic Outlook.
An accumulation of recent data suggests that the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies. Our earlier projection, that world growth will pick up from last year’s lackluster pace in 2017 and 2018, therefore looks increasingly likely to be realized. At the same time, we see a wider dispersion of risks to this short-term forecast, with those risks still tilted to the downside. Uncertainty has risen.
Our central projection is that global growth will rise to a rate of 3.4 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018, from a 2016 rate of 3.1 percent. Much of the better growth performance we expect this year and next stems from improvements in some large emerging market and low income economies that in 2016 were exceptionally stressed. That being said, compared to our view in October, we now think that more of the lift will come from better prospects in the United States, China, Europe, and Japan. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Growth, IMF, Obstfeld, WEO | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2017
on January 3, 2017 RGE EconoMonitor
Key takeaway – Across the globe, populism and protectionism are on the rise and macro fundamentals remain weak. In this challenging context, growth will remain subdued in 2017, hampered by sluggish investment and productivity, ever-accumulating savings and modest inflation. With the exception of the Unites States (US), developed markets (DMs) will stagnate, burdened by debt and structural rigidities. In the US, if Trump’s policies veer toward pragmatism, the economy will grow above trend, lifting financial markets, especially in the first part of the year. Emerging markets (EMs) will face low growth and risks of political volatility. At the global level, geopolitical tensions, financial instability and competitive devaluations remain key risks. Fiscal and monetary policies are unlikely to strengthen demand and investment; fiscal policy might turn expansionary only in the US. Monetary policies, unable to spur growth, will steadily diverge – with a mild tightening cycle in the US and easing in the Eurozone (EZ) and Japan. While traditional banks remain under pressure, asymmetric economic performance and diverging monetary policies will increase the risk of market dislocations. Unusual times call for unusual portfolios: investors should lower their return expectations, and increase exposure to alternatives. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Emerging Markets, Magnoli Bocchi, Populism, Protectionism, RGE Monitor | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2016
„Annus horribilis“ (hfk)
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: 2016, Brexit, Economy, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Conservative fiscal and monetary policies, plus an autocrat’s ability to impose austerity measures, keep Russia afloat where the Soviet Union sank
“Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart,” Russian President Vladimir Putin famously said in 2010. But he quickly added, “Whoever wants it back has no brain.”
Mr. Putin isn’t usually known as a savvy economic steward. Yet as we mark the 25th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s collapse this week, his famed comments sum up the increasingly clear results of an epic historical experiment. To run that experiment, first, take two authoritarian regimes based in Moscow, one rooted in state-run socialism, the other in crony capitalism. Next, expose them both to a series of shocks: low oil prices, costly military adventures abroad, confrontation with the West and a sluggish economy in which political dictates override market forces. Then wait several years to see which regime survives.
When the Soviet Union confronted this array of challenges in the mid-1980s, it promptly collapsed. But facing very similar forces today, Mr. Putin’s government has survived—even thrived. What has made the difference, above all, is Mr. Putin’s devotion to conservative fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with an authoritarian’s ability to implement austerity measures without consulting his population. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Debt, Economy, Growth, Miller, Putin, Russia, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 27. Dezember 2016
Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.
DEC 23, 2016 Project Syndicate
LONDON – Let’s be honest: no one knows what is happening in the world economy today. Recovery from the collapse of 2008 has been unexpectedly slow. Are we on the road to full health or mired in “secular stagnation”? Is globalization coming or going?
Policymakers don’t know what to do. They press the usual (and unusual) levers and nothing happens. Quantitative easing was supposed to bring inflation “back to target.” It didn’t. Fiscal contraction was supposed to restore confidence. It didn’t. Earlier this month, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, delivered a speech called “The Specter of Monetarism.” Of course, monetarism was supposed to save us from the specter of Keynesianism!
With virtually no usable macroeconomic tools, the default position is “structural reform.” But no one agrees on what it entails. Meanwhile, crackpot leaders are stirring discontented voters. Economies, it seems, have escaped from the grasp of those supposed to manage them, with politics in hot pursuit. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economist, Economy, Project Syndicate, Skidelsky | Leave a Comment »