Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

Making the Best of a Post‑Pandemic World

Posted by hkarner - 12. Mai 2020

Date: 12‑05‑2020

Source: Project Syndicate by Dani Rodrik

Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, is the author of Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy. 

Insofar as the world economy was already on a fragile, unsustainable path, COVID‑19 clarifies the challenges we face and the decisions we must make. The fate of the world economy hinges not on what the virus does, but on how we choose to respond.

CAMBRIDGE – The global economy will be shaped in the years ahead by three trends. The relationship between markets and the state will be rebalanced, in favor of the latter. This will be accompanied by a rebalancing between hyper‑globalization and national autonomy, also in favor of the latter. And our ambitions for economic growth will need to be scaled down. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Der Eurozone droht der Süden wegzubrechen

Posted by hkarner - 8. Mai 2020

Die Eurozone wird sich im besten Fall bis Ende 2021 stabilisieren. Die Südländer stürzen ab, Österreich steht relativ gut da. Es drückt bei Arbeitsmarkt, Konsum und Export

Thomas Mayer aus Brüssel

Es sind trübe Aussichten, die EU-Wirtschaftskommissar Paolo Gentiloni vor allem seinen Landsleuten in Italien präsentierte.

Die Vorlage der Wirtschaftsprognosen war in Vor-Corona-Zeiten stets Routine in der EU-Kommission. Jedes Quartal werden für jedes EU-Land die wichtigsten Zahlen präsentiert, die dann die Basis für die gemeinsamen wirtschafts- und finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen bilden.

Mit der Ruhe ist es nun vorbei. Es wird mindestens bis Ende 2021 dauern, die Einbrüche durch die Corona-Krise einigermaßen abzufangen – und das nur im Bestfall und bei einer Handvoll Staaten wie Deutschland, Österreich, Luxemburg und in Nordeuropa. Vor allem Italien, Griechenland, Spanien und – etwas abgeschwächt – auch Frankreich droht hingegen ein jahrelanges Verharren auf der Kriechspur, sofern die Union nicht kräftig gegensteuert. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Life after lockdowns

Posted by hkarner - 2. Mai 2020

Date: 30‑04‑2020

Source: The Economist

It will be hard in ways that are difficult to imagine today

In many things 90% is just fine; in an economy it is miserable, and China shows why. The country started to end its lockdown in February. Factories are busy and the streets are no longer empty. The result is the 90% economy. It is better than a severe lockdown, but it is far from normal. The missing bits include large chunks of everyday life. Rides on the metro and on domestic flights are down by a third. Discretionary consumer spending, on such things as restaurants, has fallen by 40% and hotel stays are a third of normal. People are weighed down by financial hardship and the fear of a second wave of covid‑19. Bankruptcies are rising and unemployment, one broker has said, is three times the official level, at around 20%.

If the post‑lockdown rich world suffers its own brand of the 90% economy, life will be hard—at least until a vaccine or a treatment is found. A plunge in gdp in America of anything like 10% would be the largest since the second world war. The more suffering covid‑19 causes, the more profound and enduring its economic, social and political effects are likely to be. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Government Economy

Posted by hkarner - 1. Mai 2020

Date: 30‑04‑2020

Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

GDP shrinks 4.8% as private spending and investment plunge.

State and federal governments are now essentially running the American economy. How do you like it? That’s the biggest news in Wednesday’s initial estimate for first quarter economic growth, which shrank at a 4.8% annual rate. Governments shut down private commerce in March, and the private investment and consumption that drive American prosperity fell off a cliff.

And we’re only part of the way down. The second quarter began April 1, and economists vary in their estimates of how much more the economy will shrink through June. The optimists say 20%‑30% year over year, but minus‑50% isn’t an outrageous bet.

The point about government isn’t ideological because government spending was about the only contributor to growth in the first quarter, adding 0.13% to GDP. Nearly all of that was federal spending, with states chipping in 0.2%. Congratulations. Housing also contributed a bit, though most of that probably came before the March lockdowns. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Posted by hkarner - 27. April 2020

FURCHE-Kolumne 291    Winfried Stadler

Auf die Phase Eins („Alle Macht den Virologen“) folgten schon bald erste Schnelldiagnosen renommierter Philosophen, die in der Krise eine unverhoffte Chance sehen wollen. Angesichts der von Tag zu Tag sichtbarer werdenden, dramatischen Folgeschäden sind derlei schönfärbende Schnelldiagnosen mittlerweile seltener geworden. Dafür treten nun vermehrt System-Deuter an die Öffentlichkeit, die ihre klammheimliche Freude am drohenden Untergang der bisherigen Weltordnung nur schwer verbergen können.

So verstieg sich der von mir als Dichter und Denker ansonsten hoch geschätzte Ilja Trojanow kürzlich zu der Aussage, wir erlebten derzeit die Demontage einer auf Wachstum basierenden Wirtschaft. Deren Verfehltheit sei allein schon an der Tatsache erkennbar, „dass Panik und Hysterie aufkommt, wenn einen Monat lang nicht gearbeitet, produziert oder konsumiert wird“. Nun: so wenig es gegen den menschlichen Organismus spricht, dass er vom Zusammenbruch bedroht ist, sobald man ihm abrupt Nahrung und Flüssigkeit entzieht, so wenig verdient wohl ein Wirtschaftskreislauf unsere Verachtung, der auf Grund einer Pandemie zu kollabieren droht! Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Getting the Restart Right: How to Lead When Nobody Has a Map

Posted by hkarner - 26. April 2020

Date: 25‑04‑2020

Source: The Wall Street Journal By Sam Walker

After a sprint of crisis management, the real leadership test is what comes next. Returning to the familiar would be a mistake.

For business leaders, the coronavirus pandemic has been a baptism in crisis management; an exercise in making gut‑wrenching choices, staying calm, projecting confidence and providing comfort.

Deep down, however, we all know that the real leadership test is yet to come.

In addition to the staggering human toll, this crisis has upended everything we thought we knew about finance and the global economy and exposed glaring operational weaknesses across business. Early predictions of a “V” shaped recovery have softened to a “U,” or possibly an “L” if we’re not careful.

When the Great Restart begins, many leaders will fall back on an idea once espoused by Machiavelli, who wrote: “The great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearances, as though they were realities.” They will try to reduce the anxiety in the air by restoring familiar routines, procedures and traditions. The problem is that business, as we knew it, cannot be recovered. It will need to be reinvented. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe Suffers Record Collapse in Economic Activity

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2020

Date: 23‑04‑2020

Source: The Wall Street Journal By Paul Hannon

Surveys suggest it is almost certain the global economy has entered a recession

In the U.K., the composite Purchasing Managers Index fell to an all‑time low in April.

Business activity in Europe and Japan collapsed in April as governments tightened restrictions on movement and social interaction aimed at limiting the spread of the coronavirus, according to surveys of purchasing managers.

The surveys, out Thursday, suggest governments have effectively closed parts of the economy where face‑to‑face interaction is unavoidable—such as restaurants and barbers—and activity has tumbled in parts of the economy less directly affected.

The drop in services sector activity is unprecedented in the history of the surveys, even in the wake of the global financial crisis. Manufacturing activity has been less severely affected. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Coronavirus laut OECD „größtes Wirtschaftsrisiko seit der Finanzkrise“

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2020

dank an H.G.
02.03.2020 um 14:57

Die Coronavirus-Epidemie kann nach Einschätzung der Industriestaaten-Organisation OECD die Weltwirtschaft aus der Spur bringen.

Industriekrise in China, Flaute in der Weltwirtschaft, Sorge um die deutsche Konjunktur: Das neuartige Coronavirus ist nach Einschätzung der OECD das „größte Wirtschaftsrisiko seit der Finanzkrise“. Im schlimmsten Fall könnte sich das weltweite Wachstum sogar nahezu halbieren, warnte die OECD. Dann drohe ein „Dominoeffekt“.

Besonders deutlich werden die Folgen des Ausbruchs an ihrem Ursprungsort China: Produktion, Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Emmanuel Macron’s reforms are working, but not for him

Posted by hkarner - 23. Februar 2020

Date: 20‑02‑2020

Source: The Economist

Unemployment in France is falling. So are the president’s poll ratings

Abroad grin spreads across Aboubacar Koumbassa’s face as he displays the result of his morning’s class: a tray of oven‑hot pains‑aux‑raisins (currant pastries), which he and his classmates have baked for the first time. The 18‑year‑old, in a white chef’s cap and apron, had originally hoped for an apprenticeship as an electrician. But it was easier to secure one at a bakery. He now spends one week in three in the classroom, travelling over an hour by train. The other two weeks he is learning on the job. “I made the right choice,” he says, carefully inspecting his pastry, “because this is teamwork. Here we learn the theory, and at my firm we are really working.”

Apprenticeships offer a much‑needed path out of France’s highly academic school system and into the world of work. The Campus des Métiers, where Mr Koumbassa studies, lies in the Paris suburb of Seine‑Saint‑Denis, a neighbourhood of brutalist tower blocks with a poverty rate twice the national average. The centre trains some 1,400 apprentices, in subjects ranging from car mechanics and plumbing to hairdressing and patisserie. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Finding Solid Footing for the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 20. Februar 2020

As the Group of Twenty industrialized and emerging market economies (G-20) finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Riyadh this week, they face an uncertain economic landscape.

After disappointing growth in 2019, we began to see signs of stabilization and risk reduction, including the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal. In January, the IMF projected growth to strengthen from 2.9 percent in 2019 to 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021. This projected uptick in growth is dependent on improved performance in some emerging market and developing economies.

Monetary and fiscal policy have been doing their part. In fact, monetary easing added approximately 0.5 percentage points to global growth last year. Forty-nine central banks cut rates 71 times as part of the most synchronized monetary action since the global financial crisis.

But the global economy is far from solid ground. While some uncertainties have receded, new ones have emerged. The truth is that uncertainty is becoming the new normal. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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