Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

The Global Economy: A Delicate Moment

Posted by hkarner - 10. April 2019

By Gita Gopinath

A year ago, economic activity was accelerating in almost all regions of the world. One year later, much has changed. The escalation of US–China trade tensions, needed credit tightening in China, macroeconomic stress in Argentina and Turkey, disruptions to the auto sector in Germany, and financial tightening alongside the normalization of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies have all contributed to a significantly weakened global expansion, especially in the second half of 2018.

With this weakness expected to persist into the first half of 2019, our new World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects a slowdown in growth in 2019 for 70 percent of the world economy. Global growth softened to 3.6 percent in 2018 and is projected to decline further to 3.3 percent in 2019. The downward revision in growth of 0.2 percentage points for 2019 from the January projection is also broad based. It reflects negative revisions for several major economies including the euro area, Latin America, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia.

After the weak start, growth is projected to pick up in the second half of 2019. This pickup is supported by significant monetary policy accommodation by major economies, made possible by the absence of inflationary pressures despite growing at near potential. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England have all shifted to a more accommodative stance. China has ramped up its fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter the negative effect of trade tariffs. Furthermore, the outlook for US–China trade tensions has improved as the prospects of a trade agreement take shape. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Economic Dignity

Posted by hkarner - 13. März 2019

Date: 12-03-2019
Source: The New York Times BY GENE SPERLING

We must not lose sight of what economic policy is all about: allowing people to lead dignified lives.

GENE SPERLING was National Economic Adviser and Director of the National Economic Council for both President Obama (2011-2014) and President Clinton (1997-2001).

For all the things we find time for in the ongoing economic policy debates I have seen or been part of over the last 30 years, battles over policy, there seems to me too little reflection on the most basic economic question of all: What exactly is our ultimate economic goal in terms of increasing human happiness and well-being?

Indeed, in the absence of that more clear focus on an economic fixed star, it becomes too easy to start to see the economic targets, political strategies, and specific policy postures as if they were the end goals in themselves—as opposed to means to arrive at a higher end goal for lifting up human fulfillment.

Over the years, I have found myself stepping outside of the normal metrics that define our national economic dialogue to ask myself: What would a person on his or her death bed say mattered most in his or her economic life? That is the question that guides this essay. It seeks neither to explore highly technical issues of economic measurement nor sort out competing theories of social justice. It is rather one policymakers’ attempt to go out of the comfort zone of numbers to delve into this larger question. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Market Concentration Is Threatening the US Economy

Posted by hkarner - 12. März 2019

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His latest book, People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent, will be published in April.

Rising inequality and slow growth are widely recognized as key factors behind the spread of public discontent in advanced economies, particularly in the United States. But these problems are themselves symptoms of an underlying malady that the US political system may be unable to address.

NEW YORK – The world’s advanced economies are suffering from a number of deep-seated problems. In the United States, in particular, inequality is at its highest since 1928, and GDP growth remains woefully tepid compared to the decades after World War II.

After promising annual growth of “4, 5, and even 6%,” US President Donald Trump and his congressional Republican enablers have delivered only unprecedented deficits. According to the Congressional Budget Office’s latest projections, the federal budget deficit will reach $900 billion this year, and will surpass the $1 trillion mark every year after 2021. And yet, the sugar high induced by the latest deficit increase is already fading, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting US growth of 2.5% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020, down from 2.9% in 2018. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s prime minister frets about the country’s economy

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2019

Date: 09-03-2019
Source: The Economist

But he swears off large-scale stimulus to revive it

China’s rubber-stamp parliament can seem unchanging from one year to the next. Shortly past 9am on March 5th—the same date and time as always—Li Keqiang, the prime minister, rose in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People to deliver his annual work report (after delegates had sung the national anthem, accompanied by a military band). His speech took, as ever, nearly two hours. He reviewed the government’s targets last year for growth, investment, employment and more, all of which it had reached. He also announced another series of targets that, as sure as stiff-backed soldiers hoist up the country’s flag in Tiananmen Square every morning, China will achieve again. Mr Li closed with a customary rousing pledge to bring about the “Chinese dream of national rejuvenation”. Delegates, having made a good show of listening raptly throughout, dutifully applauded.

Yet despite all the familiar pomp and well-worn phrases, there were enough new policies and numbers in Mr Li’s speech to highlight the economic uncertainty now facing many in China, including the government itself. The report, which marked the start of the legislature’s annual ten-day session, was laced with caution. Mr Li said China would aim for gdp growth of between 6% and 6.5% this year, down from 6.6% in 2018. Though still strong for an economy of China’s size, it would be the slowest rate in nearly 30 years. Many economists think the official figures exaggerate the pace. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Posted by hkarner - 26. Februar 2019

Date: 25-02-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject: As Ex-Enron CEO Exits Prison, Some of Company’s Old Businesses Thrive

Companies built from pieces of the scandal-plagued energy giant have become industry leaders

Enron is a symbol of corporate fraud and excess since the Houston-based energy conglomerate collapsed nearly two decades ago.

Former Enron Corp. Chief Executive Jeffrey Skilling has been released from federal custody after serving more than 12 years in prison for his role in one of the biggest business scandals in American history. He re-enters a world in which some of the businesses built from his old company’s less appreciated assets have become formidable in their own right.

Enron is a symbol of corporate fraud and excess since the Houston-based energy conglomerate collapsed nearly two decades ago amid questions about its accounting practices. Mr. Skilling, who was released Thursday according to the Federal Bureau of Prisons, was among several executives who faced criminal charges after the company filed for bankruptcy in 2001. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The struggle to reform China’s economy

Posted by hkarner - 23. Februar 2019

Date: 21-02-2019
Source: The Economist

How Xi Jinping could both calm the trade war and make China richer

For the past two weeks Chinese and American negotiators have been locked in talks in Beijing and Washington to end their trade conflict before the deadline of March 1st, when America will ratchet up tariffs on Chinese goods or, perhaps, let the talks stretch into extra time. Don’t be distracted by mind-numbing details on soyabean imports and car joint-ventures. At stake is one of the 21st century’s most consequential issues: the trajectory of China’s $14trn economy.

Although President Donald Trump started the trade war, pretty much all sides in America agree that China’s steroidal state capitalism makes it a bad actor in the global trading system and poses a threat to security. Many countries in Europe and Asia agree. At the heart of these complaints is the role of China’s government, which funnels cheap capital towards state firms, bullies private companies and breaches the rights of foreign ones. As a result, China grossly distorts markets at home and abroad.

The backlash is happening just as China’s model of debt, heavy investment and state direction is yielding diminishing returns. Growth this quarter may fall to 6%, the worst in nearly three decades. Many suspect that the true figure is lower still. By opening the economy and curbing the state, Xi Jinping, China’s autocratic leader, could boost performance within China’s borders and win a less hostile reception beyond them. He is loth to limit the power of the government and the party, or to accept American demands. But China’s path leads to long-term instability. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Posted by hkarner - 14. Februar 2019

FURCHE-Kolumne 260  Wilfried Stadler

Klimafragen stellen sich nicht nur, wenn es um Wetterprognosen geht. Im übertragenen Sinn beschäftigen sie uns auch, wenn sich das Wirtschaftsklima ändert und die ökonomische Großwetterlage Anlass zur Sorge gibt.

Als sich im Herbst vergangenen Jahres der Horizont an den Börsen verdüsterte, konnten die teils heftigen Kursverluste noch als überfällige Korrektur nach einer langen Schönwetterphase interpretiert werden. Mittlerweile zeigen sich jedoch auch ganz reale, konjunkturelle Gewitterwolken. Schon korrigieren die Weltbank-Ökonomen ihre bis vor kurzem noch deutlich optimistischeren Prognosen nach unten.

Realwirtschaftlich ist jedoch kein überzeugender Grund für eine Abkühlung der Wirtschaftsdynamik auszumachen, gibt es doch in vielen Regionen der Welt einen unglaublichen Aufholbedarf. Das gilt für ehemalige Planwirtschaftsländer und nunmehrige EU-Mitgliedsstaaten wie Rumänien oder Bulgarien ebenso wie für zahlreiche Staaten des asiatischen Raumes und schon gar des Nahen Ostens und Afrikas.

Denn so sehr auch der isolierte Blick auf saturierte Marktwirtschaften ein Ende des Wachstums nahelegen würde, so realitätsfern ist diese Sichtweise, wenn in den Betrachtungshorizont all die bisher benachteiligten Zonen einbezogen werden. Dort bedarf es zur Schaffung zumutbarer Lebensbedingungen dringend wirtschaftlicher Belebung – und die geht nun einmal mit Wachstum einher. Nur so entstehen Arbeitsplätze, nur so Kaufkraft, nur so die nötigen Steuereinnahmen, um jene Grundfunktionen zu finanzieren, ohne die kein Rechtsstaat und damit auch keine Wirtschaftsordnung funktioniert. Die zu erwartenden Umweltkosten dieses Wachstums in den bisher benachteiligten Teilen der Welt erhöhen noch unsere Verantwortung dafür, umso konsequenter klimaschonende Strategien zu fahren. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Incredible Shrinking Europe

Posted by hkarner - 12. Februar 2019

Date: 12-02-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Walter Russell Mead

The Continent’s grand unity project is failing, and its global influence is fading.

Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs. As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.

As its economy lags behind, Europe is becoming more divided politically. Brexit negotiations have inflamed tempers on both sides of the English Channel; Central European countries like Hungary and Poland are alienated from the West; much of Southern Europe remains bitter about the aftermath of the euro crisis; and anti-EU political parties continue to gain support across the bloc. A recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations projects that anti-EU parties from the right and left are on course to control enough seats in the next European Parliament that they will be able to disrupt the EU and weaken it further. This wasn’t supposed to happen. The EU was founded to stop Europe’s decline, not reflect it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump vs. the Economy

Posted by hkarner - 30. Dezember 2018

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Between publicly chastising US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and escalating his trade war with China, US President Donald Trump has finally rattled the markets. While investors were happy to look the other way during the first half of Trump’s term, the dangerous spectacle unfolding in the White House can no longer be ignored.

NEW YORK – Financial markets have finally awoken to the fact that Donald Trump is US president. Given that the world has endured two years of reckless tweets and public statements by the world’s most powerful man, the obvious question is, What took so long?

For one thing, until now, investors had bought into the argument that Trump is all bark and no bite. They were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as long as he pursued tax cuts, deregulation, and other policies beneficial to the corporate sector and shareholders. And many trusted that, at the end of the day, the “adults in the room” would restrain Trump and ensure that the administration’s policies didn’t jump the guardrails of orthodoxy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Premier Conte: „Italiens Wirtschaftslage ist solide“

Posted by hkarner - 29. Dezember 2018

„Italien ist die siebtstärkste Volkswirtschaft der Welt und die Ersparnisse der Italiener sind hoch“, erklärte Conte bei einer Pressekonferenz zum Jahresende.

Der italienische Premier Giuseppe Conte ist der Ansicht, dass Italiens Wirtschaftslage solide sei. Zwar sei das Land von einer hohen Verschuldung belastet, diese sei jedoch unter Kontrolle. „Italien ist die siebtstärkste Volkswirtschaft der Welt und die Ersparnisse der Italiener sind hoch“, erklärte Conte bei einer Pressekonferenz zum Jahresende.

Die Regierung habe Italiens Wachstumsprognosen 2019 auf 1,0 Prozent nach unten revidieren müssen. „Dies bedeutet aber nicht, dass wir uns mit einem niedrigen Wirtschaftswachstum begnügen wollen“, so Conte. Er äußerte die Hoffnung, dass die italienische Wirtschaft im neuen Jahr kräftiger als 1,0 Prozent wachsen werde.

Conte zeigte sich überzeugt, dass die Regierung aus der rechten Lega und der populistischen Fünf-Sterne-Bewegung bis Ende der fünfjährigen Legislaturperiode im Sattel bleiben wird. Die Regierung brauche Zeit, um ihren umfangreichen Koalitionsvertrag umzusetzen. „Es besteht eine perfekte Harmonie zwischen den beiden politischen Kräften, zwischen den Vorsitzenden der Regierungsparteien und mir. Beide Parteichefs, Matteo Salvini und Luigi Di Maio, sind sehr vernünftig“, lobte Conte. Seit dem Regierungsantritt im Juni sei es nie zu Divergenzen zwischen den Regierungskräften gekommen. Die beiden Regierungsparteien würden lediglich im Interesse der Bürger handeln.

Conte kündigte die Einrichtung eines Komitees an, das Verschwendungen in der öffentlichen Verwaltung reduzieren soll. Damit sollen Gelder gespart werden, die zur Umsetzung der Reformen der Regierung verwendet werden sollen, sagte Conte.

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