Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2017
By Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Direct, 18/4
Momentum in the global economy has been building since the middle of last year, allowing us to reaffirm our earlier forecasts of higher global growth this year and next. We project the world economy to grow at a pace of 3.5 percent in 2017, up from 3.1 percent last year, and 3.6 percent in 2018. Acceleration will be broad based across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies, building on gains we have seen in both manufacturing and trade.
Our new projection for 2017 in the April World Economic Outlook is marginally higher than what we expected in our last update. This improvement comes primarily from good economic news for Europe and Asia, as well as our continuing expectation for higher growth this year in the United States.
Despite these signs of strength, many other countries will continue to struggle this year with growth rates significantly below past readings. Commodity prices have firmed since early 2016, but at low levels, and many commodity exporters remain challenged – notably in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. At the same time, a combination of adverse weather conditions and civil unrest threaten several low-income countries with mass starvation. In Sub-Saharan Africa, income growth could fall slightly short of population growth, but not by nearly as much as last year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Growth, IMF, Obstfeld | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 30. März 2017
Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. In 2006, he was appointed to President Bush’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and, in 2009, was appointed to President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Currently, he is on the board of directors of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Group of 30, a non-profit, international body that seeks greater understanding of global economic issues.
MAR 29, 2017 Project Syndicate
CAMBRIDGE – After a long and slow recovery from the recession that began a decade ago, the United States economy is now booming. The labor market is at full employment, the inflation rate is rising, and households are optimistic. Manufacturing firms and homebuilders are benefiting from increasing activity. The economy is poised for stronger growth in the year ahead. We no longer hear worries about secular stagnation.
The overall unemployment rate is just 4.7%, while unemployment among college graduates is only 2.4%. Average hourly earnings are 2.8% higher than they were a year ago. The tight labor market and rising wages are inducing some individuals who had stopped looking for work to return to the labor force, boosting the participation rate.
A clear indication that the economy is at full employment is that the rate of inflation is increasing. The “core” consumer price index (which omits volatile energy and food prices) has reached an annual rate of 2.2%, substantially higher than the 1.8% average during the previous three years. During the most recent three months, core inflation rose at a 2.8% annual rate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Feldstein, Growth, Project Syndicate, Recession, Secular stagnation, Unemployment, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 15. März 2017
Posted on March 14, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Christine Lagarde
Versions in: عربي (Arabic), Français (French), and Deutsch (German)
Baden-Baden, the German spa town built on ancient thermal springs, is a fitting venue to discuss the health of the global economy during this week’s meeting of the Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors.
Policymakers will likely share a sense of growing optimism, because the recent strengthening of activity suggests that the world economy may finally snap out of its multi-year convalescence.
Economic prescriptions have played an important part in the recovery, and will continue to do so for some time. Maintaining the positive growth momentum continues to require supportive macroeconomic policies. And the participants at the meetings will need to take action, individually and collectively, to make growth more inclusive and resilient.
Have we reached a turning point? The short answer is yes—at least for now. Growth outturns in the second half of last year were generally solid. Manufacturing and confidence indicators are picking up, and there are signs that global trade volumes are rising along with them. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, G20, Growth, IMF, Lagarde | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
While there are often disparities between the White House and independent agencies on growth projections, they are rarely this large
WASHINGTON—The Trump administration has drafted preliminary economic growth forecasts in its federal budget planning that rely on assumptions that are far rosier than projections made by independent agencies and most private forecasters, according to several people familiar with the discussions.
The forecasts are being revised, these people said, following an internal debate. One concern is that pressing staff economists to produce aggressive forecasts might undercut the credibility of top appointees forced to later defend those numbers.
The deliberations show the challenge the administration faces as it tries to reconcile the competing goals of cutting taxes, boosting military and infrastructure spending, preserving Medicare and Social Security programs and keeping budget deficits from soaring. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Forecast, Trump, USA, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2017
Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the IMF, is a professor at MIT Sloan, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and co-founder of a leading economics blog, The Baseline Scenario. He is the co-author, with James Kwak, of White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters to You.
JAN 30, 2017, Project Syndicate
WASHINGTON, DC – US President Donald Trump has an obvious problem with data that he doesn’t like, as he showed on his first full day in office, by attacking the media for reporting accurately the size of the crowd that attended his inauguration. It should be no less obvious that this same reliance on “alternative facts” poses a severe threat in the realm of economic policymaking.
The number of people who attended the inauguration – far less than Trump wanted to believe – could easily be inferred from the available evidence (including photographs of the National Mall and the number of subway riders). But the discussion has now broadened to the more serious question of whether millions of people voted illegally, as Trump has insisted since the election. He has implicitly conceded that he lost the popular vote by nearly three million votes, but maintained, despite all evidence to the contrary, that massive voter fraud occurred. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: alternative facts, Economy, Johnson, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 30. Januar 2017
Der Präsident und seine wirtschaftspolitischen Berater ziehen ein Resümee: In vielerlei Hinsicht wird eine Erfolgsbilanz präsentiert; es zeigt aber auch viele Baustellen und Defizite in der amerikanischen Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik auf.
Jedes Jahr im Januar legt der amerikanische Präsident der Öffentlichkeit seinen „Wirtschaftsbericht“ („Economic Report of the President“) vor. Der wird zusammen mit dem Jahresbericht des „Council of Economic Advisers“ (CEA) veröffentlicht. Das ist das offizielle wirtschaftspolitische Beratungsgremium des Präsidenten. Es besteht aus nur drei Mitgliedern, wird aber von rund 30 weiteren Ökonomen in seiner Arbeit unterstützt. Der diesjährige Bericht (s. hier) ist auch eine Art Schlussbilanz der Wirtschaftspolitik und -entwicklung der letzten acht Jahre, also der Obama Präsidentschaft, die mit dem Amtsantritt von Donald Trump letzte Woche zu Ende gegangen ist. Der Bericht präsentiert in vielerlei Hinsicht eine Erfolgsbilanz. Er zeigt aber auch viele Baustellen und Defizite in der amerikanischen Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik auf. Der mangelnde Erfolg auf einigen wichtigen Gebieten war sicher auch ein wichtiger Grund für den Wahlsieg des neuen Präsidenten, der die Welle des Populismus in Wildwest-Manier geritten ist, aber eine Volkswirtschaft in recht guter Lage erben wird. Es zeichnet sich ab, dass der neue Präsident nicht nur teilweise andere wirtschaftspolitische Ziele verfolgen, sondern auch andere Mittel und Strategien zu ihrer Erreichung einsetzen wird. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Bibow, Economy, Makroskop, Obama, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. Januar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
In meeting with car industry, U.S. president says he will speed up process of environmental permitting
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with General Motors CEO Mary Barra during a meeting with auto-industry executives in the Roosevelt Room of the White House.
President Donald Trump said businesses have to wait too long to obtain permits and vowed to create a friendlier climate for companies that want to invest in the U.S., stepping up a push to curb the flow of jobs overseas.
In a meeting at the White House Tuesday with auto industry executives, Mr. Trump said he would streamline and shorten the process by which applicants win approval to do business in the U.S.
He said environmental regulations, in particular, have become unnecessarily burdensome.
“We’re going to make the process much more simple for the oil companies and everybody else that wants to do business in the United States,” Mr. Trump said at the start of a meeting with executives from General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Automotive, Economy, Trump, USA, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 20. Januar 2017
Philippe Legrain, a former economic adviser to the president of the European Commission, is a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics’ European Institute and the author of European Spring: Why Our Economies and Politics are in a Mess – and How to Put Them Right.
JAN 19, 2017 Project Syndicate
LONDON – British Prime Minister Theresa May is leading the United Kingdom toward a very “hard” Brexit in 2019 – and potentially off a cliff, if the UK leaves the European Union without an exit or trade deal. In her January 17 speech, May outlined her objectives for negotiating with the EU, and made it clear that she will prioritize hardline Brexiteers’ demands over the country’s economic interests.
It isn’t surprising that May would choose a Brexit variant whereby Britain leaves both the EU’s single market and its customs union: she knows little, and cares even less, about economics. Her ultimate objective is to survive as Prime Minister, and she believes that controlling immigration – a longtime personal obsession – will endear her to “Leave” voters, and that ending the European Court of Justice’s jurisdiction in Britain will pacify the nationalists in her Conservative Party. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Economy, Legrain, Project Syndicate, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2017
Posted on January 16, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Today we released our update to the World Economic Outlook.
An accumulation of recent data suggests that the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies. Our earlier projection, that world growth will pick up from last year’s lackluster pace in 2017 and 2018, therefore looks increasingly likely to be realized. At the same time, we see a wider dispersion of risks to this short-term forecast, with those risks still tilted to the downside. Uncertainty has risen.
Our central projection is that global growth will rise to a rate of 3.4 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018, from a 2016 rate of 3.1 percent. Much of the better growth performance we expect this year and next stems from improvements in some large emerging market and low income economies that in 2016 were exceptionally stressed. That being said, compared to our view in October, we now think that more of the lift will come from better prospects in the United States, China, Europe, and Japan. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Growth, IMF, Obstfeld, WEO | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2017
on January 3, 2017 RGE EconoMonitor
Key takeaway – Across the globe, populism and protectionism are on the rise and macro fundamentals remain weak. In this challenging context, growth will remain subdued in 2017, hampered by sluggish investment and productivity, ever-accumulating savings and modest inflation. With the exception of the Unites States (US), developed markets (DMs) will stagnate, burdened by debt and structural rigidities. In the US, if Trump’s policies veer toward pragmatism, the economy will grow above trend, lifting financial markets, especially in the first part of the year. Emerging markets (EMs) will face low growth and risks of political volatility. At the global level, geopolitical tensions, financial instability and competitive devaluations remain key risks. Fiscal and monetary policies are unlikely to strengthen demand and investment; fiscal policy might turn expansionary only in the US. Monetary policies, unable to spur growth, will steadily diverge – with a mild tightening cycle in the US and easing in the Eurozone (EZ) and Japan. While traditional banks remain under pressure, asymmetric economic performance and diverging monetary policies will increase the risk of market dislocations. Unusual times call for unusual portfolios: investors should lower their return expectations, and increase exposure to alternatives. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Emerging Markets, Magnoli Bocchi, Populism, Protectionism, RGE Monitor | Leave a Comment »