Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

The Real Risk to the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2017

Christopher SmartChristopher Smart is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He was a special assistant to the US president for International Economics, Trade, and Investment (2013-2015) and Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Europe and Eurasia (2009-13).

One might assume that the brewing crises on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East pose a serious threat to the current global economic expansion. But political crises often induce only brief market corrections, whereas gradual shifts in international global institutions can be far more consequential for investor behavior.
WASHINGTON, DC – One of the great mysteries of today’s global markets is their irrepressible enthusiasm, even as the world around them appears on the verge of chaos or collapse. And yet, investors may be more rational than they appear when it comes to pricing in political risks. If investing is foremost about discounting future cash flows, it’s important to focus precisely on what will and will not affect those calculations. The potential crises that may be most dramatic or violent are, ironically, the ones that the market has the easiest time looking through.

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Three Scenarios for the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 11. Oktober 2017

The International Monetary Fund, which in recent years had characterized global growth as the “new mediocre,” recently upgraded its World Economic Outlook. But is the IMF right to think that the recent growth spurt will continue over the next few years, or is a temporary cyclical upswing about to be subdued by new tail risks?

NEW YORK – For the last few years, the global economy has been oscillating between periods of acceleration (when growth is positive and strengthening) and periods of deceleration (when growth is positive but weakening). After over a year of acceleration, is the world headed toward another slowdown, or will the recovery persist?

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Brexit Poses Risk to U.K.’s Existing Economic Order

Posted by hkarner - 10. Oktober 2017

Date: 09-10-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

At last week’s Conservative Party conference, there was growing concern at where the process is heading

British Prime Minister Theresa May

The British people didn’t vote for a revolution. They simply voted to leave the European Union. But senior figures across the political spectrum believe that a revolution is what Britain is getting.

Contrary to what Brexiters said during last year’s referendum—and continued to insist until recently—Britain’s departure from the EU is going to be anything but easy. It is increasingly clear that Brexit was an act of violence against the existing economic order.

There is scarcely a corner of the U.K. economy that is unaffected by the decision to reverse 43 years of European integration. At last week’s conference of the ruling Conservative Party, there was growing concern at where this process is heading and how it might end.

What makes Brexit so destabilizing is that it shares two features common to revolutions. First, it has created a parallel legitimacy, pitching the supposed “will of the people” expressed in the referendum against the traditional sovereignty of Parliament, thereby constraining the ability of elected representatives to exercise their own judgment.

Second, it has created a power vacuum. Brexiters campaigned under the slogan “Take Back Control,” but they never agreed who should take control of the powers currently held by Brussels. They shook the economic order but without a coherent plan as to what to put in its place. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Germany’s Economic Road Ahead

Posted by hkarner - 26. September 2017

Clemens Fuest is President of the Ifo Institute and Professor of Economics at the University of Munich.

The next German government will have a chance to lay the groundwork for the country’s future prosperity. But if policymakers are to make the most of the opportunity, they will have to act neither rashly nor reticently.
MUNICH – The next German government will face economic-policy challenges in five key areas: digitalization and automation, demographic change, globalization, climate change, and European integration. 

With respect to digitalization, Germany tends to fluctuate between excessive enthusiasm for expanding fiber-optic networks and fear of the impact of new, largely unregulated business models, such as those underpinning avatars of the “sharing economy” like Uber and Airbnb.

But German policymakers must not respond to such sentiments with kneejerk reactions. Rolling out a nationwide fiber-optic network, rather than simply servicing the locales that are most in need, would be both expensive and inefficient. And politicians should focus their regulatory efforts on ensuring that sensible digital business models and private investment are not obstructed. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Cyber Age Has Hardly Begun

Posted by hkarner - 19. September 2017

Date: 18-09-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The information sector accounts for less than 10% of GDP and 5% of jobs.

Apparently American companies can be organized now into two camps: smoking-hot tech firms and old economy roadkill. Economists cite soaring tech stock valuations as evidence of a two-speed economy. Yet Silicon Valley magic hasn’t benefited most companies or created jobs for most Americans. What’s going on?

Amazon’s market value is twice that of Wal-Mart and 500-fold that of evaporating Sears. Apple’s valuation is twice Exxon ’s , and Facebook and Google are each valued at 20-fold CBS . Next come 200 “unicorns,” private software-dominated startups each valued at over $1 billion. Uber has a valuation greater than all car rental companies combined, and 8-year-old Airbnb is worth as much as 80-year-old Marriott. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Eurozone Economic Sentiment Hits 10-Year High

Posted by hkarner - 1. September 2017

Date: 31-08-2017

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Improvement is led by rising confidence among industrial companies and the services sector

FRANKFURT—Economic sentiment in the eurozone reached its “highest level in more than 10 years”

in August, led by rising confidence among industrial companies and in the services sector, the European Commission said Wednesday.

Its Economic Sentiment Indicator, which aggregates business and consumer confidence, jumped to 111.9 from 111.3 in July. This marks the highest level since July 2007. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a stable outcome.

Italy recorded the sharpest rise in economic sentiment among the region’s largest economies, followed by France and Spain—a sign the recovery is spreading. The mood, however, eased slightly in Germany and the Netherlands, the region’s traditional powerhouses. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Global Economy’s New Rule-Maker

Posted by hkarner - 29. August 2017

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Making money in the subcontinent

Posted by hkarner - 28. August 2017

Date: 27-08-2017
Source: The Economist

Big firms in India face new competition

As it gets easier to do business, it will get harder to earn huge profits

IF YOU run a big firm in India you must straddle different worlds. The country’s leading bosses can wax lyrical about artificial intelligence and debate returns on capital with foreign fund managers. But they have also mastered India’s poor infrastructure and huge informal economy. Shiny campuses sit beside open sewers. Millions of customers can be reached only by dirt tracks. Suppliers and distributors often operate in the shadows. In a typical month an Indian boss might have wheatgrass shots in Silicon Valley, slug bootlegged single malt with a local politician and sip masala chai from clay cups with villagers.

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is the world’s seventh-largest and its stockmarket the ninth-biggest, but the country is like no other major economy. The informal sector accounts for about 50% of output, 80-90% of jobs and at least 90% of firms. Red tape and bad roads mean the country comes 130th in the World Bank’s ease-of-doing-business rankings. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The “free” economy comes at a cost

Posted by hkarner - 26. August 2017

Date: 24-08-2017
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

But economists struggle to work out how much

FACEBOOK, whose users visit for an average of 50 minutes a day, promises members: “It’s free and always will be.” It certainly sounds like a steal. But it is only one of the bargains that apparently litter the internet: YouTube watchers devour 1bn hours of videos every day, for instance. These free lunches do come at a cost; the problem is calculating how much it is. Because consumers do not pay for many digital services in cash, beyond the cost of an internet connection, economists cannot treat these exchanges like normal transactions. The economics of free are different.

Unlike conventional merchants, companies like Facebook and Google have their users themselves produce value. Information and pictures uploaded to social networks draw others to the site. Online searches, selections and “likes” teach algorithms what people want. (Now you’ve bought “The Communist Manifesto”, how about a copy of “Das Kapital”?)

The prevalence of free services is partly a result of history. In the early years of the internet, consumers became used to getting stuff for nothing. They have little idea of how much their data are worth; since digital companies have access to billions of people, the value of one person’s data is tiny anyway. More fundamentally, scarcity is not a constraint in the digital world as it is in the physical one. Data are both inexhaustible and super-cheap to transport.
In 1993 MCI Mail was charging people 50 cents for the first 500 characters of a digital message, increasing by ten cents for each extra 500. The internet slashed that price to zero. Charging would have been impractical, so small is the marginal cost.

Users may pay nothing, but companies like Google and Facebook have fixed costs to cover: engineers, data centres, etc. To make money, they squeeze their users indirectly, by charging companies to put appropriate advertisements in front of captive eyeballs. In the second quarter of 2017, Facebook eked an average of $4.65 out of each of its users by peppering screens with ads and promoted posts. (By comparison, just eight cents came from payments and other fees, mainly from people paying for stuff within virtual games.) Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mistrust in America could sink the economy

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2017

Date: 10-08-2017
Source: The Economist: Schumpeter

Part of the problem is a lack of competition in some industries

AMERICA is a grumpy and confused place. For an overarching explanation of what has gone wrong, a decline in trust is a good place to start. Trust can be defined as the expectation that other people, or organisations, will act in ways that are fair to you. In the White House and beyond there is precious little of it about. People increasingly view institutions as corrupt, strangers as suspicious, rivals as illegitimate and facts as negotiable.

The share of Americans who say “most people can be trusted” fell from 44% in 1976 to 32% in 2016, according to a survey from the University of Chicago. In a new book, “The Retreat of Western Liberalism”, Edward Luce, a commentator for the Financial Times in Washington, argues that distrust will contribute to America’s decline and eventually, even, to autocracy. Lack of faith is chewed over in boardrooms, too. In his latest letter to shareholders, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s boss, describes trust as America’s “secret sauce” and worries that the bottle is running dry. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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