Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

Emmanuel Macron’s reforms are working, but not for him

Posted by hkarner - 23. Februar 2020

Date: 20‑02‑2020

Source: The Economist

Unemployment in France is falling. So are the president’s poll ratings

Abroad grin spreads across Aboubacar Koumbassa’s face as he displays the result of his morning’s class: a tray of oven‑hot pains‑aux‑raisins (currant pastries), which he and his classmates have baked for the first time. The 18‑year‑old, in a white chef’s cap and apron, had originally hoped for an apprenticeship as an electrician. But it was easier to secure one at a bakery. He now spends one week in three in the classroom, travelling over an hour by train. The other two weeks he is learning on the job. “I made the right choice,” he says, carefully inspecting his pastry, “because this is teamwork. Here we learn the theory, and at my firm we are really working.”

Apprenticeships offer a much‑needed path out of France’s highly academic school system and into the world of work. The Campus des Métiers, where Mr Koumbassa studies, lies in the Paris suburb of Seine‑Saint‑Denis, a neighbourhood of brutalist tower blocks with a poverty rate twice the national average. The centre trains some 1,400 apprentices, in subjects ranging from car mechanics and plumbing to hairdressing and patisserie. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Finding Solid Footing for the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 20. Februar 2020

As the Group of Twenty industrialized and emerging market economies (G-20) finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Riyadh this week, they face an uncertain economic landscape.

After disappointing growth in 2019, we began to see signs of stabilization and risk reduction, including the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal. In January, the IMF projected growth to strengthen from 2.9 percent in 2019 to 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021. This projected uptick in growth is dependent on improved performance in some emerging market and developing economies.

Monetary and fiscal policy have been doing their part. In fact, monetary easing added approximately 0.5 percentage points to global growth last year. Forty-nine central banks cut rates 71 times as part of the most synchronized monetary action since the global financial crisis.

But the global economy is far from solid ground. While some uncertainties have receded, new ones have emerged. The truth is that uncertainty is becoming the new normal. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Global Economy Without a Cushion

Posted by hkarner - 29. Januar 2020

Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

From 1990 to 2008, annual growth in world trade was fully 82% faster than world GDP growth. Now, however, reflecting the unusually sharp post-crisis slowdown in global trade growth, this cushion has shrunk dramatically, to just 13% over the 2010-19 period, leaving the world economy more vulnerable to all-too-frequent shocks.

NEW HAVEN – With the benefit of full-year data, only now are we becoming aware of the danger the global economy narrowly avoided in 2019. According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest estimates, world GDP grew by just 2.9% last year – the weakest performance since the outright contraction in the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009 and far short of the 3.8% pace of post-crisis recovery over the 2010-18 period.

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The Truth About the Trump Economy

Posted by hkarner - 19. Januar 2020

Joseph E. Stiglitz

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent.

It is becoming conventional wisdom that US President Donald Trump will be tough to beat in November, because, whatever reservations about him voters may have, he has been good for the American economy. Nothing could be further from the truth.

NEW YORK – As the world’s business elites trek to Davos for their annual gathering, people should be asking a simple question: Have they overcome their infatuation with US President Donald Trump?

Two years ago, a few rare corporate leaders were concerned about climate change, or upset at Trump’s misogyny and bigotry. Most, however, were celebrating the president’s tax cuts for billionaires and corporations and looking forward to his efforts to deregulate the economy. That would allow businesses to pollute the air more, get more Americans hooked on opioids, entice more children to eat their diabetes-inducing foods, and engage in the sort of financial shenanigans that brought on the 2008 crisis. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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2019 in Review: The Global Economy Explained in 5 Charts

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2019

By Gita Gopinath, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Malhar Nabar

Global growth this year recorded its weakest pace since the global financial crisis a decade ago, reflecting common influences across countries and country-specific factors.

Rising trade barriers and associated uncertainty weighed on business sentiment and activity globally. In some cases (advanced economies and China), these developments magnified cyclical and structural slowdowns already under way.

Further pressures came from country-specific weakness in large emerging market economies such as Brazil, India, Mexico, and Russia. Worsening macroeconomic stress related to tighter financial conditions (Argentina), geopolitical tensions (Iran), and social unrest (Venezuela, Libya, Yemen) rounded out the difficult picture. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die nächste Dekade stellt die Weltwirtschaft auf den Kopf

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2019

Date: 09‑12‑2019

Source: Die Welt Von Frank Stocker

Asia, China, Hong Kong, A man wearing a back pack, stands on a high elevated rocky viewpoint on Victoria Peak, overlooking the Hong Kong skyline at dawn, looking out over the illuminated city as the night transforms into early in the morning.

In der nächsten Dekade wird sich die Rangliste der wichtigsten Volkswirtschaften fundamental verändern. Die Bundesrepublik riskiert, zwischen zwei Fronten zu geraten. Zwar gäbe es einen Ausweg, doch Experten zweifeln an Deutschlands Fähigkeiten.

Nur noch wenige Wochen, dann beginnt ein neues Jahrzehnt. Die Zwanziger des letzten Jahrzehnts waren eine Zeit des Aufschwungs und wurden daher später als „die Goldenen Zwanziger“ bezeichnet. Zugleich begann damals aber auch der Übergang des globalen wirtschaftlichen Machtzentrums vom britischen Empire auf die USA.

New York etablierte sich als zweiter wichtiger Finanzplatz, von dem dann am Ende des Jahrzehnts die Schockwellen des großen Börsencrashs mit all seinen Folgen ausgingen. Ob die Zwanziger auch diesmal golden werden, ist ungewiss. Sicher ist jedoch, dass sich in der kommenden Dekade erneut ein Führungswechsel in der Weltwirtschaft vollziehen wird.

China wird die USA überholen, und die Konkurrenz der beiden Mächte wird die Welt vor eine Zerreißprobe stellen. Deutschland wird darunter besonders leiden. Zugleich werden weitere Machtzentren in Ländern entstehen, die bisher kaum jemand im Auge hat.

Seit Jahrzehnten sind die USA die größte Volkswirtschaft der Erde, im vergangenen Jahr betrug die Wirtschaftsleistung rund 20,5 Billionen Dollar, Chinas Bruttoinlandsprodukt lag bei rund zwei Dritteln davon. Allerdings: Vor zehn Jahren umfasste Chinas Wirtschaftskraft weniger als ein Drittel jener der USA, das Reich der Mitte wächst wesentlich schneller.

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Egalitarianism: Inequality could be lower than you think

Posted by hkarner - 30. November 2019

Date: 28‑11‑2019

Source: The Economist

But there is plenty to do to make economies fairer

Even in a world of polarisation, fake news and social media, some beliefs remain universal, and central to today’s politics. None is more influential than the idea that inequality has risen in the rich world. People read about it in newspapers, hear about it from their politicians and feel it in their daily lives. This belief motivates populists, who say selfish metropolitan elites have pulled the ladder of opportunity away from ordinary people. It has given succour to the left, who propose ever more radical ways to redistribute wealth. And it has caused alarm among business people, many of whom now claim to pursue a higher social purpose, lest they be seen to subscribe to a model of capitalism that everyone knows has failed.

In many ways the failure is real. Opportunities are restricted. The cost of university education in America has spiralled beyond the reach of many families. Across the rich world, as rents and house prices have soared, it has become harder to afford to live in the successful cities which contain the most jobs. Meanwhile, the rusting away of old industries has concentrated poverty in particular cities and towns, creating highly visible pockets of deprivation. By some measures inequalities in health and life expectancy are getting worse. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A New Climate Economy

Posted by hkarner - 27. November 2019

By Gita Bhatt

“Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.” The quip, attributed to 19thcentury American humorist Mark Twain, might describe the current state of play on climate change. In Twain’s day, it was absurd to suppose humans could do anything about the weather.

Today, we understand that we can and we must.

The changing climate, largely wrought by humans, is bringing rising sea levels, temperature extremes, and more frequent and harsher storms. These threaten to displace lives, livelihoods, and communities, with clear economic consequences, often at a high price tag, around the world.

Simply put, climate is the biggest risk the world faces. What can we do to move from talk to action?

This issue of Finance & Development looks at the economic and financial impact of climate policy choices. It points to concrete solutions that offer growth opportunities, driven by technological innovation, sustainable investment, and a dynamic private sector.

For IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, dealing with climate change requires not only mitigating damage, but also adapting for the future. This means pricing risk and providing incentives for green investment. Kenneth Gillingham shows that in the long run, the costs of climate action may be lower than we think. Ian Parry estimates that aggressive carbon taxes would help individual nations meet their emission-reduction goals and scale up action globally. Mark Carney and others show how harnessing finance can open enormous opportunities—from transforming energy to reinventing protein. Finally, Ralph Chami and fellow researchers highlight how saving whales can help save the planet. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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When the meaning is in the method

Posted by hkarner - 23. November 2019

Date: 21-11-2019
Source: The Economist

Two Nobel-prizewinning economists show how problems should be solved

Good Economics for Hard Times. By Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo. PublicAffairs; 432 pages; $30. Allen Lane; £25.

When the authors of this excellent book were awarded the Nobel prize for economics last month, French media crowed that a Frenchwoman had won it; Indian media that an Indian-born economist and his wife had done so. Most reports eventually mentioned that their national champion was not the sole laureate. But the parochialism of the headlines bears out one of the book’s central observations.

The world is messier than conventional economic models assume. People respond not only to material incentives but also to the pull of tribe and custom. They are not only rational but also emotional, superstitious and attached to the familiar. All economists know that their models oversimplify—that is what models are for. But few have grappled as energetically with the complexity of real life as Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee, or got their boots as dirty in the process.

The couple are best known, along with their fellow Nobel laureate Michael Kremer, for pioneering the use of randomised controlled trials to answer economic questions. An earlier book, “Poor Economics”, is full of powerful examples. To see whether small loans improve the lives of the poor, the team persuaded a microlender in Hyderabad to expand into some randomly selected districts but not others. (They found that microcredit works, but not as well as its boosters claim.) In another trial, they found that Indian teachers were more likely to show up to work if they were made to take date-stamped photos of themselves, and their pay was docked if they missed classes.

“Good Economics for Hard Times” is more wide-ranging. It reviews the evidence for what works and what doesn’t in tackling some of the world’s biggest problems, from climate change to trade. The authors admit that their knowledge is imperfect and their proposals will need refining. They don’t claim to understand what causes rapid economic growth, for instance. They would far rather you absorbed their evidence-based, trial-and-error method than any specific policy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Good Economics for Hard Times’

Posted by hkarner - 20. November 2019

Date: 18-11-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By William Easterly

Review: Sticky Markets, Tricky Solutions

Free-market advocates often assume the free mobility of labor. The truth is that people don’t move so fluidly. Markets can be sticky.

Free-market advocates often forget that labor markets can be sticky.

Proponents of market reforms are quick to tout the benefits that markets have to deliver. But as Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, two of this year’s Nobel laureates in economics, repeatedly show in “Good Economics for Hard Times,” some apologists have a tendency to overpromise. Markets, the authors remind us, can be sticky. Pro-market reforms like freer trade, for instance, only work as well as advocates predict when people can freely move to better opportunities. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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