Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

The Real Italian Job: Make the Economy More Productive

Posted by hkarner - 1. März 2018

Date: 27-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Dysfunctional government and entrenched habits are holding back businesses, researchers say

ROME—The campaign leading up to Italy’s national elections on March 4 has featured populist promises of largess but neglected what economists have long said is the real Italian disease: The country has forgotten how to grow.

Take Gianni Angelilli’s pizzeria in downtown Rome. He uses an innovative dough mix and flexible cooking methods, drawing long lines and rave reviews. But Italy is too bureaucratic, the locals have no money and his ambition isn’t what it used to be, Mr. Angelilli said. If he opens more outlets, they will be abroad.

Now, foreigners have more desire to eat well than Italians,” he said. “Italy is dead. Italy is finito.”

Italy prides itself on its creativity, but its economy is recovering from the upheaval of recent years at a slower pace than the rest of Europe. The core of the problem is a lack of growth in productivity, which means the country has steadily lost touch with a rapidly changing world over the last quarter-century. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Fed’s Powell Says His Economic Outlook Has Improved

Posted by hkarner - 1. März 2018

Date: 28-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Central-bank chief sees ‘further gradual increases’ in interest rates

WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the economy’s prospects have brightened in recent months, indicating the central bank is on track to keep gradually lifting short-term interest rates and perhaps even pick up the pace this year.

“My personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December,” he told members of the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday in his first Capitol Hill appearance since taking over as Fed chief earlier this month.

“We’ve seen continuing strength in the labor market. We’ve seen some data that will, in my case, add some confidence to my view that inflation is moving up to target. We’ve also seen continued strength around the globe, and we’ve seen fiscal policy become more stimulative,” he said in answer to a question about what could cause the Fed to raise rates more than three times this year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Working Toward the Next Economic Paradigm

Posted by hkarner - 28. Februar 2018

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

Building support for a new unifying economic paradigm to replace the discredited Washington Consensus will be an analytically challenging, politically demanding, and time-consuming process. In the meantime, both economists and policymakers must ensure that the existing paradigm doesn’t cause more damage than it already has.

LAGUNA BEACH – For decades, the Western world put its faith in a well-defined and broadly accepted economic paradigm with applications at both the national and global levels. But, against a background of declining confidence in the ability of “experts” to explain, let alone predict, economic developments, that faith has deteriorated. With a new paradigm having yet to emerge, the world economy faces a heightened risk of fragmentation, with already-vulnerable countries being left even further behind.

The paradigm that, until recently, dominated much of economic thinking and policymaking is embodied in the so-called Washington Consensus – a set of ten broadly applicable policy prescriptions for individual countries – and, at the international level, in the pursuit of economic and financial globalization. The idea, simply put, was that countries would benefit from embracing market-based pricing and deregulation at home, while fostering free trade and relatively open cross-border capital flows. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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What the Price of Iberian Ham Tells Us About Spain’s Economy

Posted by hkarner - 20. Februar 2018

Date: 19-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Spaniards are shaking off one of the country’s worst downturns in decades and splurging on goods recently considered extravagant

RONDA, Spain—The latest sign of Spain’s bullish economic recovery?
A surge in ham prices that some are calling a bubble.

Cheered by strong economic growth, Spaniards are shaking off one of the country’s worst downturns in decades and splurging on goods recently considered extravagant. That includes the ultimate Spanish gastronomic luxury: free-range, acorn-fed Iberian ham.

On a recent morning, José Manuel Jiménez Laguna, a pig broker, fielded calls from farmers eager to buy Iberian piglets at prices that are 40% higher than a year ago. A 50-pound, purebred Iberian piglet, which produces high-quality jamón ibérico de bellota, sells on average for around €115 ($143) vs. around €83 at the same time last year.

Iberian pigs that graze on acorns produce meat that has a special marbling and taste, which fetches a higher price.

What the Price of Iberian Ham Tells Us About Spain’s Economy

“The prices are astronomical!” Mr. Jiménez Laguna told a rancher over the phone while driving between farms near Ronda in southern Spain. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Global Economy Is Doing Great. Be Afraid.

Posted by hkarner - 28. Januar 2018

Date: 26-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

At Davos, financial chiefs are upbeat about the markets, and that is what has them worried

A topic of conversation at this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, is how far equities could rise before falling back, and when it might happen. 

Cognitive dissonance is in the air. This year’s mental split allows finance chiefs to believe that everything’s bullish, the world economy is finally in synchronized growth mode and markets are quite rightly on fire—while worrying that it is all just too good to last.

“Everybody’s making money, and the clouds on the horizon don’t look very threatening,” said Stephen Schwarzman, chairman and chief executive of private equity group Blackstone . “That’s enough to create a positive environment.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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„Deutschlands goldenes Jahrzehnt wird in den 2020ern enden“

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2018

Die gute Konjunktur verdecke den Blick auf die verdeckten strukturellen Probleme in der deutschen Wirtschaft, sagen Ökonomen. Und die öffentliche Verwaltung sei zu behäbig.

Auf den ersten Blick sieht die deutsche Wirtschaftslage rosig aus. Daten vom Arbeitsmarkt, Einkaufsmanagerindizes und eine lockere Geldpolitik der EZB schaffen die Voraussetzungen für anhaltende Zuversicht. Aber es gibt Risiken, die der Feststimmung, wie ifo-Chef Clemens Fuest im Dezember die Lage umschrieb, ein jähes Ende bereiten könnten.

Noch sei die abnehmende Wettbewerbsfähigkeit für Investoren kein Thema, sagt Maximilian Kunkel, Chef-Anlagestratege Wealth Management UBS Deutschland und verweist auf den derzeitigen global synchronisierten konjunkturellen Aufschwung. Aber der Aufschwung sei zyklisch und nicht strukturell. Strukturelle Reformen in Deutschland seien unbedingt notwendig, sowie Investitionen in Bildung, Infrastruktur und Forschung. Deutschland ist in puncto Standortqualität international bereits zurückgefallen, zeigt der „Doing-Business-Bericht“ der Weltbank vom vergangenen Herbst.

„Erfolg macht behäbig“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Stupid Economy

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2018

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of the new book The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.

Advances in automation and artificial intelligence already pose a clear threat to countless occupations, just as the technologies of the Industrial Revolution did for many forms of manual labor in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. But this time, it is not just our jobs that are in danger.

PRINCETON – Most discussions about the march of robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) have understandably concentrated on fears of massive job losses. But the implications of these technologies are actually far more terrifying. We have been brought to the brink of an alarming evolutionary transformation, not just of human capacities, but of the individual self.

History provides only a partial guide for the uncertain future we face. What we know from the first Industrial Revolution is that new technologies can fundamentally alter humans and other species. The key to this process, according to Cambridge University’s Tony Wrigley, the great historian of the era, was the replacement of human- and animal-driven mechanical energy by more productive forms, such as coal and other fossil fuels. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Economy in Cartoons: How an Economy Grows

Posted by hkarner - 3. Januar 2018

Thanks to H.F.

Schiff how-an-economy-grows


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Economy on a Roll

Posted by hkarner - 2. Januar 2018

I don’t really think of myself as a forecaster. I talk about the future all the time, of course, and I tell you what I think is coming – but whether it will arrive next month, next year, or five years from now is a different question. Timing is hard.

So, when I write annual forecast letters like this one, I put some extra pressure on myself. In addition to identifying the macro forces in play, I try to anticipate when we will see their impact. That’s never been easy, and it seems to get tougher every year. But inquiring minds want to know, so here we go.


Objects in Motion Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Global Economy in 2018

Posted by hkarner - 29. November 2017

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Advisory Board Co-Chair of the Asia Global Institute in Hong Kong, and Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

The global economy will confront serious challenges in the months and years ahead, and looming in the background is a mountain of debt that makes markets nervous – and that thus increases the system’s vulnerability to destabilizing shocks. Yet the baseline scenario seems to be one of continuity, with no obvious convulsions on the horizon.

HONG KONG – Economists like me are asked a set of recurring questions that might inform the choices of firms, individuals, and institutions in areas like investment, education, and jobs, as well as their policy expectations. In most cases, there is no definitive answer. But, with sufficient information, one can discern trends, in terms of economies, markets, and technology, and make reasonable guesses.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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