Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

Stalled: Germany

Posted by hkarner - 14. November 2018

Date: 14-11-2018

Source: The Economist

The economy haD been trundling along quite nicely in recent years, thanks to buoyant global trade and rock-bottom interest rates. But third-quarter figures out today show German growth going into reverse: GDP declined 0.2% on the previous quarter. One big factor is stricter vehicle-emissions tests, introduced after a series of cheating scandals. Carmakers put the brakes on production as they raced to ensure their inventories had the new certificates.

Production slipped by 9% in the three months to August, compared with the previous three months. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Global Economy’s Three Games

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2018

, Project Syndicate

Jean Pisani-Ferry, a professor at the Hertie School of Governance (Berlin) and Sciences Po (Paris), holds the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa chair at the European University Institute and is a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank.

Three major players – the United States, China, and a loose coalition formed by the other members of the G7 – are shaping the future of the international economic and geopolitical order. And they are all engaged in three contests simultaneously, without knowing which one is the most important.

PARIS – Chess masters are able to play simultaneously on several boards with several partners. And the more time passes, the more US President Donald Trump’s international economic strategy looks like such a match.

There are three major players: the United States, China, and a loose coalition formed by the other members of the G7. And there are three games, each of which involves all three players. Unlike chess, however, these games are interdependent. And no one – perhaps not even Trump – knows which game will take precedence. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mit diesen radikalen Forderungen will der Club of Rome die Wirtschaft verändern

Posted by hkarner - 18. Oktober 2018

Die reichsten zehn Prozent der Erde zusammen dürften nicht mehr als 40 Prozent des Weltvermögens besitzen, sagen Ökonomen.

Nur eine radikale Transformation der Weltwirtschaft in den kommenden Jahrzehnten kann Wohlstand und das Überleben des Planeten in Einklang bringen. Zu dieser Erkenntnis kommt die Organisation Club of Rome, die sich für eine nachhaltige Zukunft einsetzt und am Mittwoch ihr 50-jähriges Bestehen in der italienischen Hauptstadt feiert.

Nur ein Szenario verspricht wirklichen Erfolg für „die Ziele der Menschheit und den Planeten“, erklärte Per Espen Stoknes von der Norwegian Business School, die an dem Bericht beteiligt war. Dafür seien fünf Bedingungen erforderlich:

1. Radikale Energiewende

Es sei etwa nötig, ab 2020 in jedem Jahrzehnt den Ausstoß fossiler Brennstoffe zu halbieren.

2. Nachhaltige Lebensmittelproduktion

Eine nachhaltigere Landwirtschaft sei zwingend notwendig, damit 2050 schätzungsweise zehn Milliarden Menschen ernährt werden könnten.

3. Abbau von Ungleichheit durch faire globale Steuersysteme Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The British way: vote without sufficient thinking, planning or foresight

Posted by hkarner - 7. Oktober 2018

Date: 06-10-2018
Source: The Guardian By David Conn
Subject: Will Nissan stay once Britain leaves? How one factory explains the Brexit business dilemma

In the 1980s, Thatcher’s government sold Britain as ‘a gateway to Europe’. Nissan came to Sunderland and thrived – but now its future is uncertain.

Earlier this year, when the British government’s assessments of the economic impact of Brexit were finally published, they revealed that the north-east of England was at risk of the deepest damage. Although the region still bears scars from the decline of heavy industry in the 1980s, today the north-east is the only part of Britain that exports more to European countries than it imports. And, amid the region’s new and rebuilt industries, such as pharmaceuticals, the most significant engine of recovery has been Nissan, the Japanese carmaker, which is housed in a giant factory complex just off the A19 at Washington, near Sunderland.

The plant was opened with great ceremony by Margaret Thatcher in 1986. Sharon Hodgson, now Labour MP for Washington and Sunderland West, which includes the plant, remembers that as a teenager, she was amazed when it was announced that Nissan would be setting up there. “Growing up in the north-east then, we had seen everything close – the mines, the shipyards, so many people put out of work. It was the cruellest, most awful time,” she said. “As a young woman, I remember the feeling of hope and optimism when Nissan came, the shock and surprise that we were actually going to get something.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Asia’s Strongmen and Their Weak Economies

Posted by hkarner - 5. Oktober 2018

Jayati Ghosh is Professor of Economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi and a member of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation.

Many people seem to believe that authoritarian rulers deliver better economic results. And yet, with the possible exception of China’s Xi Jinping, Asia’s autocrats, from India to the Philippines, are presiding over increasingly fragile states and even more vulnerable economies.

NEW DELHI – US President Donald Trump grabs the most headlines, but the cult of the strongman leader is most developed in Asia. The continent abounds with rulers – including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and the strongest of them all, Chinese President Xi Jinping – who make a virtue of centralizing power.

Obviously, leadership styles vary. But all of Asia’s strongmen share a key characteristic: they secure public support by preying on economic ignorance. In particular, they trade on the popular belief that leaders who concentrate political power are freer to guide economic growth. For the most part, people accept this claim, expecting that financial gain and “development” will be their reward. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Italian Economy’s Moment of Truth

Posted by hkarner - 11. Juni 2018

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Advisory Board Co-Chair of the Asia Global Institute in Hong Kong, and Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

Unlike many other European countries, Italy still has not restored economic growth to its pre-crisis level – a fundamental failing that lies at the heart of many of its political problems. Now that a new anti-establishment government is taking power, it remains to be seen if the economy will be remade, or broken further.

MILAN – Italy and Europe are at an inflection point. After an election in March in which the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the far-right League party captured a combined parliamentary majority, followed by months of uncertainty, Italy has become the first major EU member state to be governed by a populist coalition.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Economy with a Fever

Posted by hkarner - 30. April 2018

April 27, 2018

Economic indicators are similar. Lately I see a lot of talk about the flattening yield curve and speculation it might invert as the economy enters recession. If that happens, the inverted yield curve won’t be the culprit. It will point to another culprit, or combination of them.

This is something I watch carefully because a recession is long overdue, if history means anything. Some argue this time is different. Maybe so, but I’m not inclined to bet on it. Today we’ll explore some reasons why.


Now, on with our fever treatment, which of course, brings up a story.

In late 2006, when the yield curve was last in the process of inverting, I put in a call to then New York Fed’s Dr. Fred Mishkin, who co-authored a seminal report reviewing 20 different indicators as recession forecasting tools. They found only the inverted yield curve had any true significance, and then it was generally a year early. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Many results in microeconomics are shaky

Posted by hkarner - 28. April 2018

Date: 26-04-2018
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

The third in our series on the shortcomings of the economics profession

MICROECONOMISTS are wrong about specific things, Yoram Bauman, an economist and comedian, likes to say, whereas macroeconomists are wrong in general. Macroeconomists have borne the brunt of public criticism over the past decade, a period marked by financial crisis, soaring unemployment and bitter arguments between the profession’s brightest stars. Yet the vast majority of practising dismal scientists are microeconomists, studying the behaviour of people and firms in individual markets. Their work is influential and touches on all aspects of social policy. But it is no less fraught than the study of the world economy, and should be treated with corresponding caution.

For decades non-economists have attacked the assumptions underlying economic theory: that people are perfectly informed maximisers of their own self-interest, for instance. Although economists are aware that markets fail and humans are not always rational, many of their investigations still rely on neoclassical assumptions as “good enough” descriptions of the world. But this “101ism”, as Noah Smith, an economist and journalist, calls it, is less prevalent than it was in the 1950s and 1960s, when researchers like Gary Becker reckoned everything from crime to marriage could be described in terms of rational self-interest. Since the 1970s, as Roger Backhouse and Béatrice Cherrier describe in “The Age of the Applied Economist”*, a new collection of essays, the field has taken a decidedly empirical turn. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Us vs. Them

Posted by hkarner - 27. April 2018

Mauldin Economics, 26/4

By Dr. Ian Bremmer

Dear John,

Last week was James Comey week here in the United States. The former FBI director came out swinging, announcing that Donald Trump isn’t morally fit to be president. Note to Comey: 1) We knew that. 2) We elected him anyway.

What does that say about the United States? That much of the electorate is morally unfit? If so, which part? The part that voted for Trump? The (larger) part that stayed home and didn’t cast a ballot in the most important election in decades? The part that continued to vote for a bunch of establishment candidates who allowed the system to progress to the point where someone like Trump could actually be elected?

Don’t get me going about the Electoral College. Trump and Hillary Clinton both campaigned given the rules in place; they would’ve campaigned differently with different rules. We know all about the Russians and Cambridge Analytica. Yes, the election could have gone differently. But let’s be clear: Trump beat a huge Republican crowd… and Ted Cruz was a close second. Bernie Sanders could have easily been the Democratic nominee.

And all this on the back of Brexit. Soft authoritarian governments popping up and gaining momentum across Eastern Europe. Historic drubbings of establishment forces in the European Union’s three most important remaining economies: Germany, France, and Italy. This isn’t coincidence.

And so back to our note to Comey: 3) Isn’t there a bigger point here? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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„Donut-Ökonomie“: Vom Mut, eine neue Ökonomie zu denken

Posted by hkarner - 23. April 2018

Nicht schlecht: Hätte sie allerdings die Föhrenbergkreis-Arbeit „Auf der Spurensuche nach einer Neuen  Wirtschaftsordnung“ aus dem Jahr 2001 gelesen, dann wäre sie schon 17 Jahre früher so klug gewesen (hfk)

Christian Felber, 21. April 2018, 12:00 derstandard.at

Die britische Ökonomin Kate Raworth stellt mit einem überraschenden Donut-Diagramm die Wirtschaftswissenschaft auf den Kopf

Gäbe es den Ökonomienobelpreis – Kate Raworth würde ihn verdienen. Sie wäre nach 75 Männern die zweite Frau, die den sogenannten „Preis der Schwedischen Reichsbank in Wirtschaftswissenschaft zur Erinnerung an Alfred Nobel“ erhielte. In ihrem Buch Donut-Ökonomie dekonstruiert sie das vorherrschende neoklassische Paradigma der Wirtschaftswissenschaft – vom „Marktmechanismus“ über den „Homo oeconomicus“ bis zum Glauben an das BIP – und setzt sieben neue Denkansätze für die ÖkonomIn des 21. Jahrhunderts an dessen Stelle, beginnend mit einem neuen Ziel für die Disziplin.

Damit liefert sie der weltweit wachsenden Studentenprotestbewegung – von der angelsächsischen Rethinking Economics bis zur deutschen Gesellschaft für plurale Ökonomik – eine allgemein verständliche und von mathematischem Ballast befreite Theoriegrundlage. Raworth, die sich als „frustriert“ von ihrem Studium der Ökonomie deklariert, „weil diese eigenartige Annahmen darüber traf, wie die Welt funktionierte, während sie die meisten Dinge beschönigte, über die ich mir Sorgen machte“, beginnt ihr Buch mit dem Auszug von Studierenden aus der Vorlesung von Gregory Mankiw in Harvard, als dieser ein zu einseitiges Bild der Ökonomie zeichnete. Mankiw folgt als weltweit führender Lehrbuchautor Paul Samuelson, dessen Standardwerke sich in 60 Jahren weltweit vier Millionen Mal verkauft haben. Berühmt wurde Samuelson für seinen Ausspruch: „Es ist mir egal, wer die Gesetze eines Landes schreibt, solange ich die Lehrbücher für Wirtschaftswissenschaft schreiben kann.“

Leben im Donut als neues Ziel

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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