Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

Trump’s Assault on the Global Trading System

Posted by hkarner - 17. August 2019

Date: 16-08-2019
Source: Foreign Affairs By Chad P. Bown And Douglas A. Irwin

And Why Decoupling From China Will Change Everything 

Donald Trump has been true to his word. After excoriating free trade while campaigning for the U.S. presidency, he has made economic nationalism a centerpiece of his agenda in office. His administration has pulled out of some trade deals, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), and renegotiated others, including the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement. Many of Trump’s actions, such as the tariffs he has imposed on steel and aluminum, amount to overt protectionism and have hurt the U.S. economy. Others have had less obvious, but no less damaging, effects. By flouting international trade rules, the administration has diminished the country’s standing in the world and led other governments to consider using the same tools to limit trade arbitrarily. It has taken deliberate steps to weaken the World Trade Organization (WTO)—some of which will permanently damage the multilateral trading system. And in its boldest move, it is trying to use trade policy to decouple the U.S. and Chinese economies. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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German Economy Contracts as Global Trade Battle Bites

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2019

Date: 14-08-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Decline in GDP indicates that Europe’s largest economy has now become a drag on the region

Germany’s economy shrank slightly in the second quarter, rekindling fears of a recession and underscoring how Europe’s industrial core is suffering from the uncertainty caused by the U.S.-China trade dispute.

Economists and the government have cited the tensions between Beijing and Washington and the possibility of Britain leaving the European Union without a negotiated settlement as the main reasons for the cooling of Germany’s export-driven economy.

Analysts said the downturn should be a wake-up call for European policy makers to consider measures to stimulate activity in the region. Berlin, which has generated a budget surplus for the past five years, has been under pressure for months to loosen its strict fiscal policy to energize demand at home and in neighboring countries. The government has resisted any bold move so far, though is planning modest tax cuts and is working on its version of the Green New Deal, to be unveiled this fall. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s One-Way Economy

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2019

Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chair of Chatham House.

If these were normal times, recent global developments would be showing up as sharply rising risk premia. But with monetary policymakers trying to sustain the current growth cycle in the face of disruptions from an incompetent US administration, these are anything but normal times.

LONDON – Nowadays, when people ask me how I am, I answer, jokingly, that I’m doing great, so long as I ignore Donald Trump’s presidency in the United States, Brexit, the crisis of the United Kingdom’s major political parties, and the performance of Manchester United.

But recently, the litany of unfortunate circumstances has gotten so long that the joke is hard to pull off. One now must also list the political in Hong Kong, a burgeoning diplomatic and economic dispute between Japan and South Korea, the Indian government’s of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy – and India-Pakistan tensions more generally – and growing turmoil within South Africa’s ruling African National Congress.Making matters worse, this has been a particularly rough summer in terms of the weather: heat waves across Europe and the US have served as a forceful reminder of the growing effects of climate change on our everyday lives. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why predicting the impact of a no-deal Brexit is so hard

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juli 2019

Date: 27-07-2019
Source: The Economist

Estimates of the economic effects of no-deal on GDP are varied

Apart from Economists for Free Trade (eft), a pro-Brexit group, almost no wonks believe that leaving the eu without a deal would be good for the economy. The majority flinch when Boris Johnson, the new prime minister, promises that Britain will push off by October 31st “come what may”. Yet the question of just how bad a no-deal Brexit would be has many answers.

On July 18th the Office for Budget Responsibility (obr), the fiscal watchdog, warned that a no-deal exit would “push the economy into recession”. The next day Oxford Economics argued that “no-deal Brexit might be bad, but not obr bad.” Capital Economics, another consultancy, wrote last year that in its central no-deal scenario “we don’t expect…a full-blown recession.” Estimates of the long-term effect on gdp are even more varied (see chart).

If Britain leaves without a deal it will become a member of the World Trade Organisation on its own, not as part of the eu. Britain would generally have to charge the same tariffs on eu imports as on non-eu ones. Regulations governing everything from medicines to electricity connections to financial services could lapse. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Global Economy’s Next Winners

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juni 2019

Date: 27-06-2019
Source: Foreign Affairs

What It Takes to Thrive in the Automation Age

By Susan Lund, James Manyika, and Michael Spence

Back in business: at an Amazon warehouse in Florence, New Jersey, August 2017

The countries that once led the world toward economic openness are retreating into protectionism. Over the past two and a half years, the United States has abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership and imposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, and a wide range of Chinese goods. The United Kingdom is in the process of leaving the world’s largest free-trade area. And rising nationalist sentiment is threatening to repeat these self-destructive acts elsewhere. The rich world is turning inward.

Its timing couldn’t be worse. Even as critics of free trade gain the upper hand, globalization, wholly of its own accord, is transforming in rich countries’ favor. Economic growth in the developing world is boosting demand for products made in the developed world. Trade in services is up. Companies are moving production closer to their customers so they can respond faster to changes in demand. Automation has slowed the relentless search for people willing to work for ever-lower wages. And the greater complexity of modern goods means that research, design, and maintenance are coming to matter more than production. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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America’s Illusions of Growth

Posted by hkarner - 15. Mai 2019

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of Columbia’s Center for Sustainable Development and of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. His books include The End of Poverty, Common Wealth, The Age of Sustainable Development, Building the New American Economy, and most recently, A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism.

Many commentators have interpreted buoyant GDP and unemployment data in the United States as vindicating President Donald Trump’s economic policies, and some suggest that his re-election chances have improved as a result. But these indicators fail to measure what really counts for the public.

NEW YORK – National politics in the United States has become enslaved to macroeconomic indicators that have little bearing on true wellbeing. For many commentators, the snapshot growth rate of 3.2% for the first quarter of 2019, coupled with a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.6% in April, implies that President Donald Trump’s economic policies have been vindicated, and some suggest that his re-election chances have improved as a result.

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Is Erdogan Losing His Grip on Turkey?

Posted by hkarner - 9. Mai 2019

Date: 08-05-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Medeni Sungur

Local elections in Istanbul and five other cities were the most serious losses for his party since 2002.

Turkey’s Supreme Electoral Council ordered a new election for mayor of Istanbul Monday, handing a victory to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party, known by the Turkish acronym AKP. Mr. Erdogan’s candidates were defeated in five of six major cities on March 31. Despite this week’s ruling in Istanbul—where the new vote is set for June 23—the results should serve as a lesson to Mr. Erdogan and populist politicians everywhere.

The opposition is now set to govern major Turkish cities for the first time in the 17 years since Mr. Erdogan became prime minister. It happened despite heavy propaganda, use of public resources to promote the AKP, and the demonization of opposition parties as terrorist collaborators. What happened? The answer lies in the faltering economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Weltmächte im Vergleich

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2019

Wirtschaftlich kann die Europäische Union natürlich mit den USA und China mithalten. Aber wie stark sind die 28 EU-Länder, wenn es um Patente, Soldaten oder olympische Medaillen geht?

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The Global Economy: A Delicate Moment

Posted by hkarner - 10. April 2019

By Gita Gopinath

A year ago, economic activity was accelerating in almost all regions of the world. One year later, much has changed. The escalation of US–China trade tensions, needed credit tightening in China, macroeconomic stress in Argentina and Turkey, disruptions to the auto sector in Germany, and financial tightening alongside the normalization of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies have all contributed to a significantly weakened global expansion, especially in the second half of 2018.

With this weakness expected to persist into the first half of 2019, our new World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects a slowdown in growth in 2019 for 70 percent of the world economy. Global growth softened to 3.6 percent in 2018 and is projected to decline further to 3.3 percent in 2019. The downward revision in growth of 0.2 percentage points for 2019 from the January projection is also broad based. It reflects negative revisions for several major economies including the euro area, Latin America, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia.

After the weak start, growth is projected to pick up in the second half of 2019. This pickup is supported by significant monetary policy accommodation by major economies, made possible by the absence of inflationary pressures despite growing at near potential. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England have all shifted to a more accommodative stance. China has ramped up its fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter the negative effect of trade tariffs. Furthermore, the outlook for US–China trade tensions has improved as the prospects of a trade agreement take shape. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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