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Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

Trump Team’s Growth Forecasts Far Rosier Than Those of CBO, Private Economists

Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2017

Date: 18-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

While there are often disparities between the White House and independent agencies on growth projections, they are rarely this large

WASHINGTON—The Trump administration has drafted preliminary economic growth forecasts in its federal budget planning that rely on assumptions that are far rosier than projections made by independent agencies and most private forecasters, according to several people familiar with the discussions.

The forecasts are being revised, these people said, following an internal debate. One concern is that pressing staff economists to produce aggressive forecasts might undercut the credibility of top appointees forced to later defend those numbers.

The deliberations show the challenge the administration faces as it tries to reconcile the competing goals of cutting taxes, boosting military and infrastructure spending, preserving Medicare and Social Security programs and keeping budget deficits from soaring. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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“Alternative Facts” and US Economic Policy

Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2017

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Obamas Wirtschaftspolitik

Posted by hkarner - 30. Januar 2017

Amerika | 27.01.2017, Makroskop

Der Präsident und seine wirtschaftspolitischen Berater ziehen ein Resümee: In vielerlei Hinsicht wird eine Erfolgsbilanz präsentiert; es zeigt aber auch viele Baustellen und Defizite in der amerikanischen Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik auf.

Jedes Jahr im Januar legt der amerikanische Präsident der Öffentlichkeit seinen „Wirtschaftsbericht“ („Economic Report of the President“) vor. Der wird zusammen mit dem Jahresbericht des „Council of Economic Advisers“ (CEA) veröffentlicht. Das ist das offizielle wirtschaftspolitische Beratungsgremium des Präsidenten. Es besteht aus nur drei Mitgliedern, wird aber von rund 30 weiteren Ökonomen in seiner Arbeit unterstützt. Der diesjährige Bericht (s. hier) ist auch eine Art Schlussbilanz der Wirtschaftspolitik und -entwicklung der letzten acht Jahre, also der Obama Präsidentschaft, die mit dem Amtsantritt von Donald Trump letzte Woche zu Ende gegangen ist. Der Bericht präsentiert in vielerlei Hinsicht eine Erfolgsbilanz. Er zeigt aber auch viele Baustellen und Defizite in der amerikanischen Wirtschafts- und Sozialpolitik auf. Der mangelnde Erfolg auf einigen wichtigen Gebieten war sicher auch ein wichtiger Grund für den Wahlsieg des neuen Präsidenten, der die Welle des Populismus in Wildwest-Manier geritten ist, aber eine Volkswirtschaft in recht guter Lage erben wird. Es zeichnet sich ab, dass der neue Präsident nicht nur teilweise andere wirtschaftspolitische Ziele verfolgen, sondern auch andere Mittel und Strategien zu ihrer Erreichung einsetzen wird. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump Warns Auto Executives on Moving Business Overseas

Posted by hkarner - 25. Januar 2017

Date: 24-01-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

In meeting with car industry, U.S. president says he will speed up process of environmental permitting

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with General Motors CEO Mary Barra during a meeting with auto-industry executives in the Roosevelt Room of the White House.

President Donald Trump said businesses have to wait too long to obtain permits and vowed to create a friendlier climate for companies that want to invest in the U.S., stepping up a push to curb the flow of jobs overseas.

In a meeting at the White House Tuesday with auto industry executives, Mr. Trump said he would streamline and shorten the process by which applicants win approval to do business in the U.S.

He said environmental regulations, in particular, have become unnecessarily burdensome.

“We’re going to make the process much more simple for the oil companies and everybody else that wants to do business in the United States,” Mr. Trump said at the start of a meeting with executives from General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit Into Trumpland

Posted by hkarner - 20. Januar 2017

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A Shifting Global Economic Landscape: Update to the World Economic Outlook

Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2017

Posted on by iMFdirect

maury-obstfeld-blogsize-final2By Maurice Obstfeld

Today we released our update to the World Economic Outlook.

An accumulation of recent data suggests that the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies. Our earlier projection, that world growth will pick up from last year’s lackluster pace in 2017 and 2018, therefore looks increasingly likely to be realized. At the same time, we see a wider dispersion of risks to this short-term forecast, with those risks still tilted to the downside. Uncertainty has risen. 

Our central projection is that global growth will rise to a rate of 3.4 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018, from a 2016 rate of 3.1 percent. Much of the better growth performance we expect this year and next stems from improvements in some large emerging market and low income economies that in 2016 were exceptionally stressed. That being said, compared to our view in October, we now think that more of the lift will come from better prospects in the United States, China, Europe, and Japan. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Year Ahead: Where to Invest in 2017

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2017

By on January 3, 2017  RGE EconoMonitor

The Year Ahead: Where to Invest in 2017

 Key takeaway – Across the globe, populism and protectionism are on the rise and macro fundamentals remain weak. In this challenging context, growth will remain subdued in 2017, hampered by sluggish investment and productivity, ever-accumulating savings and modest inflation. With the exception of the Unites States (US), developed markets (DMs) will stagnate, burdened by debt and structural rigidities. In the US, if Trump’s policies veer toward pragmatism, the economy will grow above trend, lifting financial markets, especially in the first part of the year. Emerging markets (EMs) will face low growth and risks of political volatility. At the global level, geopolitical tensions, financial instability and competitive devaluations remain key risks. Fiscal and monetary policies are unlikely to strengthen demand and investment; fiscal policy might turn expansionary only in the US. Monetary policies, unable to spur growth, will steadily diverge – with a mild tightening cycle in the US and easing in the Eurozone (EZ) and Japan. While traditional banks remain under pressure, asymmetric economic performance and diverging monetary policies will increase the risk of market dislocations. Unusual times call for unusual portfolios: investors should lower their return expectations, and increase exposure to alternatives. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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2016 in charts

Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2016

„Annus horribilis“ (hfk)2016-in-charts

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Why Putin’s Economy Survives

Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2016

Date: 30-12-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Conservative fiscal and monetary policies, plus an autocrat’s ability to impose austerity measures, keep Russia afloat where the Soviet Union sank

“Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart,” Russian President Vladimir Putin famously said in 2010. But he quickly added, “Whoever wants it back has no brain.”

Mr. Putin isn’t usually known as a savvy economic steward. Yet as we mark the 25th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s collapse this week, his famed comments sum up the increasingly clear results of an epic historical experiment. To run that experiment, first, take two authoritarian regimes based in Moscow, one rooted in state-run socialism, the other in crony capitalism. Next, expose them both to a series of shocks: low oil prices, costly military adventures abroad, confrontation with the West and a sluggish economy in which political dictates override market forces. Then wait several years to see which regime survives.

When the Soviet Union confronted this array of challenges in the mid-1980s, it promptly collapsed. But facing very similar forces today, Mr. Putin’s government has survived—even thrived. What has made the difference, above all, is Mr. Putin’s devotion to conservative fiscal and monetary policies, coupled with an authoritarian’s ability to implement austerity measures without consulting his population. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Economists versus the Economy

Posted by hkarner - 27. Dezember 2016

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