Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Recession’

Understanding Today’s Stagnation

Posted by hkarner - 24. Mai 2017

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The Risks to America’s Booming Economy

Posted by hkarner - 30. März 2017

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Recession 2017? Things Are Happening That Usually Never Happen Unless A New Recession Is Beginning

Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2017

By Michael Snyder, on February 8th, 2017, The Economic Collapse

New Crisis - Public DomainIs the U.S. economy about to get slammed by a major recession?  According to Gallup, U.S. economic confidence has soared to the highest level ever recorded, but meanwhile a whole host of key economic indicators are absolutely screaming that a new recession is beginning.  And if the U.S. economy does officially enter recession territory in 2017, it certainly won’t be a shock, because the truth is that we are well overdue for one.  Donald Trump has inherited quite an economic mess from Barack Obama, and it was probably inevitable that we were headed for a significant economic downturn no matter who won the election.

One of the key indicators to watch is average weekly hours.  When the economy shifts into recession mode, employers tend to start cutting back hours, and that is happening right now.  In fact, as Graham Summers has pointed out, we just witnessed the largest percentage decline in average weekly hours since the recession of 2008… Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Abandonment of Progress

Posted by hkarner - 3. Januar 2017

 

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What Should Trump Do?

Posted by hkarner - 21. November 2016

By John Mauldin, November 20, 2016mauldin

– Winston Churchill

“Crying is all right in its way while it lasts. But you have to stop sooner or later, and then you still have to decide what to do.”
–  C.S. Lewis, The Silver Chair

“I must have a prodigious amount of mind; it takes me as much as a week, sometimes, to make it up!”
– Mark Twain

No matter who won the presidency, the economic way forward was not going to be easy. The Republican team understands they must “stand and deliver.” But as we will see in today’s letter, that is not going to be easy. I’m going to depart from the normal format of my letters, where I talk about the economic realities we face and how we should invest, and instead offer my view of what I think the Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress should do. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Out of Ammunition to Combat Recession?

Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2016

Photo of Michael J. Boskin

Michael J. Boskin

Michael J. Boskin is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was Chairman of George H. W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1989 to 1993, and headed the so-called Boskin Commission, a congressional advisory body that highlighted errors in official US inflation estimates.

OCT 21, 2016 Project Syndicate

STANFORD – Economic forecasts for 2017 project continued frailty in the global economy, and subpar growth for most countries and regions. Obvious economic problems include Europe’s weak banks, China’s distorted property market, political uncertainty in the West, historically high private and public debt – 225% of GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund – and the reluctance of heavily indebted Greece and Portugal to comply with IMF programs.

Additional global economic risks, such as a major oil-market disruption that could drive prices up, are not as obvious, and thus receive less attention. Economists call such events “shocks” precisely because they come unexpectedly and can have far-reaching consequences. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Economists Believe a Recession Is Likely Within Next Four Years

Posted by hkarner - 13. Oktober 2016

Date: 13-10-2016

Source: The Wall Street Journal

In WSJ survey, GDP forecasts are little changed at 2.2% in 2017, 2% in 2018

The U.S. must face one of two scenarios: Either the next president will face a recession in office, or the U.S. will have the longest economic expansion in its history.

Odds are that the recession is more likely.

Economists in The Wall Street Journal’s latest monthly survey of economists put the odds of the next downturn happening within the next four years at nearly 60%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Start Moving Some Dirt

Posted by hkarner - 5. Oktober 2016

By John Mauldin, October 2, 2016Mauldin Video

– Roger McNamee

“Our American ancestors prioritized growth and investment in our nation’s infrastructure.”
– Cory Booker

“There are two Americas – separate, unequal, and no longer even acknowledging each other except on the barest cultural terms.”
– David Simon

 

I, along with about 80 million of my fellow US citizens, watched the Clinton/Trump debate last Monday night. I am sure that we all have our own takeaways, and I won’t add my own thoughts on who won. But today’s letter is going to be about one of the few things the candidates agreed on: they both believe we need more infrastructure spending.

I am often asked to provide a summary to open my letter, and for this letter it really does make sense to offer one. I am going to make the following points herein: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rezession kündigt sich an: US-Insolvenzen steigen deutlich

Posted by hkarner - 23. August 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

Die Zahl der Insolvenzen in den USA stieg im laufenden Jahr deutlich an. Zur Jahresmitte hatten schon mehr Unternehmen ihre Zahlungsunfähigkeit erklären müssen als im gesamten Jahr 2015. Mehr Insolvenzen gab es zuletzt nur im Krisenjahr 2009.

TrumpDie schlechte Lage der US-Wirtschaft erhöht die Chancen von Donald Trump.

Einem Bericht der Rating-Agentur Standard & Poor’s zufolge steigt die Zahl der bankrotten US-Unternehmen in den USA stark an. Ende Juni lag diese demzufolge bei 100 – die gesamte Konkursmasse stieg auf über 150 Milliarden Dollar. Mittlerweile, so der Finanzblog Zerohedge, sind sogar 113 Firmen betroffen.

Damit mussten bereits Mitte des laufenden Jahres mehr Unternehmen Insolvenz anmelden als im gesamten vergangenen Jahr. Standard & Poor’s zufolge „liegt deren Anzahl 57 Prozent über dem Wert des Vergleichszeitraumes. Das letzte Mal, als die Zahl der Insolvenzen zu diesem Zeitpunkt des Jahres höher lag, war im Krisenjahr 2009 mit 208.“ In diesem Sinne können die Daten als Hinweis auf eine bevorstehende Rezession verstanden werden. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Still Confused About Brexit Macroeconomics

Posted by hkarner - 14. Juli 2016

July 12, 2016 9:37 am July 12, 2016 9:37 am, Paul Krugman, NYTKrugman the biker

OK, I am still finding it hard to understand the near-consensus among my colleagues about the short- and medium-term effects of Brexit. As I’ve tried to point out, while there are clear reasons to believe that Brexit will make Britain somewhat poorer in the long run, it’s not completely obvious why this should lead to a recession in the short run. I got some thoughtful responses, but they raised more questions in my mind. And I have to say that quite a lot of the reaction I’ve received has involved strange failures of reading comprehension; it’s as if economists simply can’t process the proposition that what’s bad in the long run might not have obviously bad consequences in the short run.

So let me give an example of the kind of analysis that I think should raise eyebrows: BlackRock’s dire warnings about UK slump:

Britain will fall into recession over the coming year and growth in each of the next five years will be at least 0.5 percentage points lower as a result of Britain leaving the European Union, BlackRock said on Tuesday.

“Our base case is we will have a recession,” Richard Turnill, chief investment strategist at the world’s largest asset manager, told reporters at the firm’s investment outlook briefing.

“There’s likely to be a significant reduction of investment in the UK,” he said, adding that Brexit will ensure political and economic uncertainty remains high.

When we say “uncertainty”, what do we mean? The best answer I’ve gotten is that for a while, until things have shaken out, firms won’t be sure where the good investment opportunities in Britain are, so there will be an option value to waiting. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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