Posted by hkarner - 30. März 2017
Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. In 2006, he was appointed to President Bush’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and, in 2009, was appointed to President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Currently, he is on the board of directors of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Group of 30, a non-profit, international body that seeks greater understanding of global economic issues.
MAR 29, 2017 Project Syndicate
CAMBRIDGE – After a long and slow recovery from the recession that began a decade ago, the United States economy is now booming. The labor market is at full employment, the inflation rate is rising, and households are optimistic. Manufacturing firms and homebuilders are benefiting from increasing activity. The economy is poised for stronger growth in the year ahead. We no longer hear worries about secular stagnation.
The overall unemployment rate is just 4.7%, while unemployment among college graduates is only 2.4%. Average hourly earnings are 2.8% higher than they were a year ago. The tight labor market and rising wages are inducing some individuals who had stopped looking for work to return to the labor force, boosting the participation rate.
A clear indication that the economy is at full employment is that the rate of inflation is increasing. The “core” consumer price index (which omits volatile energy and food prices) has reached an annual rate of 2.2%, substantially higher than the 1.8% average during the previous three years. During the most recent three months, core inflation rose at a 2.8% annual rate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Feldstein, Growth, Project Syndicate, Recession, Secular stagnation, Unemployment, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2017
By Michael Snyder, on February 8th, 2017, The Economic Collapse
Is the U.S. economy about to get slammed by a major recession? According to Gallup, U.S. economic confidence has soared to the highest level ever recorded, but meanwhile a whole host of key economic indicators are absolutely screaming that a new recession is beginning. And if the U.S. economy does officially enter recession territory in 2017, it certainly won’t be a shock, because the truth is that we are well overdue for one. Donald Trump has inherited quite an economic mess from Barack Obama, and it was probably inevitable that we were headed for a significant economic downturn no matter who won the election.
One of the key indicators to watch is average weekly hours. When the economy shifts into recession mode, employers tend to start cutting back hours, and that is happening right now. In fact, as Graham Summers has pointed out, we just witnessed the largest percentage decline in average weekly hours since the recession of 2008… Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in weitere Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economic Collapse, Finanzkrise, Recession, Snyder, Summers, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 3. Januar 2017
Jean Pisani-Ferry is a professor at the Hertie School of Governance (Berlin) and Sciences Po (Paris). He currently serves as Commissioner-General of France Stratégie, a public policy advisory institution.
JAN 2, 2017 Project Syndicate
PARIS – Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan are remembered for the laissez-faire revolution they launched in the early 1980s. They campaigned and won on the promise that free-market capitalism would unleash growth and boost prosperity. In 2016, Nigel Farage, the then-leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) who masterminded Brexit, and US President-elect Donald Trump campaigned and won on a very different basis: nostalgia. Tellingly, their promises were to “take back control” and “make America great again” – in other words, to turn back the clock.
As Columbia University’s Mark Lilla has observed, the United Kingdom and the US are not alone in experiencing a reactionary revival. In many advanced and emerging countries, the past suddenly seems to have much more appeal than the future. In France, Marine Le Pen, the nationalist right’s candidate in the upcoming presidential election, explicitly appeals to the era when the French government controlled the borders, protected industry, and managed the currency. Such solutions worked in the 1960s, the National Front leader claims, so implementing them now would bring back prosperity. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Pisani-Ferry, Progress, Recession, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 21. November 2016
By John Mauldin, November 20, 2016
– Winston Churchill
“Crying is all right in its way while it lasts. But you have to stop sooner or later, and then you still have to decide what to do.”
– C.S. Lewis, The Silver Chair
“I must have a prodigious amount of mind; it takes me as much as a week, sometimes, to make it up!”
– Mark Twain
No matter who won the presidency, the economic way forward was not going to be easy. The Republican team understands they must “stand and deliver.” But as we will see in today’s letter, that is not going to be easy. I’m going to depart from the normal format of my letters, where I talk about the economic realities we face and how we should invest, and instead offer my view of what I think the Trump administration and the GOP-led Congress should do. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Flat Tax, Mauldin, Recession, Trump, USA, Velocity | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2016
Michael J. Boskin
Michael J. Boskin is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was Chairman of George H. W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1989 to 1993, and headed the so-called Boskin Commission, a congressional advisory body that highlighted errors in official US inflation estimates.
OCT 21, 2016 Project Syndicate
STANFORD – Economic forecasts for 2017 project continued frailty in the global economy, and subpar growth for most countries and regions. Obvious economic problems include Europe’s weak banks, China’s distorted property market, political uncertainty in the West, historically high private and public debt – 225% of GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund – and the reluctance of heavily indebted Greece and Portugal to comply with IMF programs.
Additional global economic risks, such as a major oil-market disruption that could drive prices up, are not as obvious, and thus receive less attention. Economists call such events “shocks” precisely because they come unexpectedly and can have far-reaching consequences. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Boskin, Greece, Growth, Project Syndicate, Recession | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 13. Oktober 2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal
In WSJ survey, GDP forecasts are little changed at 2.2% in 2017, 2% in 2018
The U.S. must face one of two scenarios: Either the next president will face a recession in office, or the U.S. will have the longest economic expansion in its history.
Odds are that the recession is more likely.
Economists in The Wall Street Journal’s latest monthly survey of economists put the odds of the next downturn happening within the next four years at nearly 60%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Recession, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 5. Oktober 2016
– Roger McNamee
“Our American ancestors prioritized growth and investment in our nation’s infrastructure.”
– Cory Booker
“There are two Americas – separate, unequal, and no longer even acknowledging each other except on the barest cultural terms.”
– David Simon
I, along with about 80 million of my fellow US citizens, watched the Clinton/Trump debate last Monday night. I am sure that we all have our own takeaways, and I won’t add my own thoughts on who won. But today’s letter is going to be about one of the few things the candidates agreed on: they both believe we need more infrastructure spending.
I am often asked to provide a summary to open my letter, and for this letter it really does make sense to offer one. I am going to make the following points herein: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Mauldin, Recession, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 23. August 2016
Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 22.08.16 09:16 Uhr
Die Zahl der Insolvenzen in den USA stieg im laufenden Jahr deutlich an. Zur Jahresmitte hatten schon mehr Unternehmen ihre Zahlungsunfähigkeit erklären müssen als im gesamten Jahr 2015. Mehr Insolvenzen gab es zuletzt nur im Krisenjahr 2009.
Die schlechte Lage der US-Wirtschaft erhöht die Chancen von Donald Trump.
Einem Bericht der Rating-Agentur Standard & Poor’s zufolge steigt die Zahl der bankrotten US-Unternehmen in den USA stark an. Ende Juni lag diese demzufolge bei 100 – die gesamte Konkursmasse stieg auf über 150 Milliarden Dollar. Mittlerweile, so der Finanzblog Zerohedge, sind sogar 113 Firmen betroffen.
Damit mussten bereits Mitte des laufenden Jahres mehr Unternehmen Insolvenz anmelden als im gesamten vergangenen Jahr. Standard & Poor’s zufolge „liegt deren Anzahl 57 Prozent über dem Wert des Vergleichszeitraumes. Das letzte Mal, als die Zahl der Insolvenzen zu diesem Zeitpunkt des Jahres höher lag, war im Krisenjahr 2009 mit 208.“ In diesem Sinne können die Daten als Hinweis auf eine bevorstehende Rezession verstanden werden. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: DWN, Fracking, oil price, Recession, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 14. Juli 2016
July 12, 2016 9:37 am July 12, 2016 9:37 am, Paul Krugman, NYT
OK, I am still finding it hard to understand the near-consensus among my colleagues about the short- and medium-term effects of Brexit. As I’ve tried to point out, while there are clear reasons to believe that Brexit will make Britain somewhat poorer in the long run, it’s not completely obvious why this should lead to a recession in the short run. I got some thoughtful responses, but they raised more questions in my mind. And I have to say that quite a lot of the reaction I’ve received has involved strange failures of reading comprehension; it’s as if economists simply can’t process the proposition that what’s bad in the long run might not have obviously bad consequences in the short run.
So let me give an example of the kind of analysis that I think should raise eyebrows: BlackRock’s dire warnings about UK slump:
Britain will fall into recession over the coming year and growth in each of the next five years will be at least 0.5 percentage points lower as a result of Britain leaving the European Union, BlackRock said on Tuesday.
“Our base case is we will have a recession,” Richard Turnill, chief investment strategist at the world’s largest asset manager, told reporters at the firm’s investment outlook briefing.
“There’s likely to be a significant reduction of investment in the UK,” he said, adding that Brexit will ensure political and economic uncertainty remains high.
When we say “uncertainty”, what do we mean? The best answer I’ve gotten is that for a while, until things have shaken out, firms won’t be sure where the good investment opportunities in Britain are, so there will be an option value to waiting. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Europe, Growth, Krugman, NYT, Recession | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 14. Juli 2016
Gordon Brown, former Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom, is United Nations Special Envoy for Global Education and Chair of the International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity.
JUL 13, 2016, Project Syndicate
LONDON – Britain will have a new prime minister today – but the country’s post-European Union future remains uncertain. Indeed, prolonged delays are likely in implementing the voters’ decision to leave the EU.
The first uncertainty is the date when exit negotiations will start. The process should be completed within two years of invoking Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon; but the incoming prime minister, Theresa May, has already said she would not want to trigger negotiations until the end of the year.
The second uncertainty is whether the negotiations can simultaneously resolve the United Kingdom’s terms of exit from the EU and its future trading arrangements with Europe’s single market. While the UK will claim that, under Article 50, negotiators should be “taking into account the framework of future relationships,” the EU trade negotiator is insisting that future arrangements can be discussed only after Britain leaves. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Britain, Brown, EEA, Europe, Globalization, Recession | Leave a Comment »