The Economy Needs Amazons, but It Mostly Has GEs

Date: 22-06-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Greg Ip

GE wrote the rules of corporate finance, Amazon broke them. To end economic stagnation we need more Amazons.

When Amazon.com Inc. announced Friday it was buying Whole Foods, the stock market got a taste of something long missing: volatility.

The turmoil, however, was confined to retail. While the two companies’ stocks rose sharply and their competitors’ tanked, the rest of the market remained placid. Indeed, months of historically low market volatility has begun to look like dangerous complacency.

Yet there is another, potentially more troubling explanation: stagnation. Muted markets may be the inevitable product of steady, sluggish growth, low and predictable interest rates, declining business startups and failures, and decreased competition. In other words, the problem is, there aren’t enough Amazons disrupting the stock market and the economy.

Donald Trump’s Trade-Knowledge Deficit

Pascal Salin

Pascal Salin, a former president of the Mont Pèlerin Society, is honorary Professor of Economics at University Paris-Dauphine.

JUN 22, 2017, Project Syndicate

PARIS – As a longtime champion of liberty and free trade, it is not surprising that the United States enjoys one of the highest standards of living in the world. But unless its policymakers act soon, the US could find itself in the same unhappy condition as my own country, France.

Ever since François Mitterrand was elected to the French presidency in 1981, France has steadily raised taxes, increased public expenditures, and imposed additional layers of regulation. Even governments supposedly on the right, under Presidents Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, pursued socialist economic policies. Consequently, France has long suffered from anemic growth and high unemployment – a perfect example of what can happen when the state intervenes in economic activities.

The downside of government intervention should be obvious to everyone. But that has not stopped politicians such as US President Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen of the French National Front from proposing interventionist and protectionist policies.

Kann die Sonne Trumps Mauer zu Mexiko wirklich bezahlen?

Der US-Präsident will den strittigen Grenzwall mit Solarpaneelen ausstatten und den Strom verkaufen, damit sich „die Mauer selbst zahlt“. Doch die Rechnung geht nicht auf.

 

Von Matthias Auer diepresse.com
22.06.2017 um 18:03

Washington/Wien. Die Mauer zu Mexiko. Sie war eines jener umstrittenen Wahlversprechen, die Donald Trump das Präsidentenamt beschert haben. Doch das Multimilliarden-Dollar-Projekt kommt nicht so recht in die Gänge – weil niemand da ist, der es bezahlen will. Mexiko denkt nicht daran, auf Trumps Forderungen einzugehen und die Kosten für den Grenzwall selbst zu tragen. Auch der US-Kongress gibt keine oder nur minimale Mittel für den Bau frei. Nun soll die Sonne die Rechnung für die tausend Meilen (1609 km) lange Mauer begleichen.

The Global Economy in 2067

Kaushik Basu

Kaushik Basu, former Chief Economist of the World Bank, is Professor of Economics at Cornell University and Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

JUN 21, 2017  Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – The world is experiencing a slow-motion economic crisis – one that, most experts agree, will continue for the foreseeable future. The global economy has grown in fits and starts since the economic crisis of 2008 – one of the longest recorded stagnations of the modern era. In virtually all middle- and high-income countries, wages (as a share of GDP) have been steadily declining for nearly 40 years. But what about the next 50?

Today, the situation certainly looks bleak. Economic stagnation and widening inequality have contributed to a surge in xenophobia and nationalism in the advanced countries, exemplified by the United Kingdom’s vote to exit the European Union and the election of US President Donald Trump – and now his decision to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. Meanwhile, large parts of the developing world – notably, the Middle East and North Africa – have been embroiled in conflict, with some teetering on the edge of state failure.

Who Will Fill America’s Shoes?

Richard N. Haass

Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003), and was President George W. Bush’s special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author of A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order.

JUN 21, 2017 Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – It is increasingly clear that US President Donald Trump represents a departure when it comes to America’s global outlook and behavior. As a result, the United States will no longer play the leading international role that has defined its foreign policy for three quarters of a century, under Democratic and Republican presidents alike.

We have already seen many examples of this change. The traditional US commitment to global organizations has been superseded by the idea of “America first.” Alliances and security guarantees once regarded as a given are increasingly conditioned on how much allies spend on defense and whether they are seen to derive unfair advantage from trade with the US.

More broadly, foreign trade is viewed with suspicion – supposedly a source of job loss rather than an engine of investment, job creation, growth, and stability. Immigration and refugee policies have become more restrictive. Less emphasis is being placed on promoting democracy and human rights. More dollars are going to defense, but fewer resources are being devoted to supporting global health or development.

The Russian-Roulette Presidency

Elizabeth Drew

Elizabeth Drew is a regular contributor to The New York Review of Books and the author, most recently, of Washington Journal: Reporting Watergate and Richard Nixon’s Downfall.

JUN 21, 2017 Project Syndicate

WASHINGTON, DC – Unless US President Donald Trump decides that he has had enough, and returns to his gilded Manhattan tower, his presidency’s metastasizing crisis will continue to haunt him. Investigations in the United States Senate and House of Representatives are underway, and the most serious inquiry is being conducted by a special counsel, Robert Mueller, who is hiring a fearsome team of specialists in criminal law.

Investigators are looking into what Russia did to try to tip the 2016 US presidential election in Trump’s favor, and whether Trump’s campaign colluded with Russian officials in that effort. The congressional inquiries are also supposed to recommend ways to prevent foreign powers from interfering in future elections, especially after recent reports suggesting that Russia’s meddling was even more ambitious than was previously known.

The EU’s Mafia State

Bálint Magyar

Bálint Magyar, a sociologist, is a former Hungarian minister of education.

JUN 21, 2017, Project Syndicate

BUDAPEST – Following the collapse of communism, many of us in Central and Eastern Europe had hoped that the region would steadily move toward liberal democracy, and that any obstacles en route to that goal could be overcome. But in many former communist countries, older systems of patronage and corruption have survived, and taken new forms. What we thought was a transitional phase has become a permanent state of affairs.

Consider Hungary, which has become a mafia state during the seven years of Viktor Orbán’s rule as prime minister. Hungary is unique in that it moved toward liberal democracy and joined the European Union before changing course and heading toward autocracy. The rest of the region’s mafia states, such as Russia, Azerbaijan, and other Central Asian former Soviet republics, either passed through a period of oligarchic flux, or took a direct path from communist dictatorship to criminal enterprise.

Globalism’s Great French Hope

Date: 21-06-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal by Greg Ip

French president Emmanuel Macron has exposed a hole in the nationalist agenda,

For global elites left dispirited by Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and Donald Trump’s presidency?, France has provided a shot of adrenaline. Emmanuel Macron won the presidency last month on a proudly pro-European platform, and Sunday, French voters gave him a solid legislative majority.

It is premature to say the nationalist wave has crested. But after establishment victories in the Netherlands and Austria and a setback to Brexit champion Theresa May, it appears globalism—whether the European Union specifically or open borders more generally—is not as politically poisonous as feared.

Still, the message of the last few months is not that voters are in love with globalism again: Turnout in the French elections was historically low. Rather, it’s that nationalists have been far better at spurring anger at the status quo than offering a coherent replacement, as Britain’s Brexit confusion and Mr. Trump’s stalled agenda demonstrate. The public unhappiness that fueled their rise remains, although it increasingly is being felt on the left, not just the right.

Ökonom: „Als Individuen können wir die Welt nicht retten“

InterviewNora Laufer, 21. Juni 2017, 11:00 derstandard.at

Graeme Maxton begrüßt den Ausstieg der USA aus dem Pariser Klimaabkommen

Grame Maxton, Generalsekretär des Club of Rome, fordert eine Ein-Kind-Politik in Europa und weniger Demokratie in Umweltfragen. Er spricht über sein Buch „Ein Prozent ist genug“, über Kapitalismus und wieso vegane Ernährung der Umwelt nicht unbedingt hilft.

STANDARD: Zugespitzt formuliert prognostiziert der Club of Rome seit 40 Jahren den Weltuntergang. Ist es bald so weit?

Maxton: Wir haben vorausgesagt, dass das wirtschaftliche und ökologische System in den 2030er- oder 2040er-Jahren kollabieren wird. Ich würde sagen, dass der Verfallsprozess vor zehn Jahren begonnen hat und sich in 20 Jahren zuspitzt. Es geht jetzt nicht mehr darum, den Klimawandel zu umgehen, sondern ihn zu managen.

STANDARD: Wie kann der Effekt abgeschwächt werden?

Maxton: Zuerst müssen wir aufhören, es schlimmer zu machen. Unser ökologischer Fußabdruck ist zu groß. Wir leben, als hätten wir eineinhalb Planeten. In Europa als hätten wir drei Planeten, in den USA fünf. Wir müssen weniger Ressourcen verwenden, weniger verschmutzen, vor allem was Treibhausgase betrifft.

Fintech: Capturing the Benefits, Avoiding the Risks

By Christine Lagarde, IMF Blog

June 20, 2017

A signboard at a store in Guangzhou, China, lists various forms of mobile payment (photo: Imagine China/Newscom)

When you send an email, it takes one click of the mouse to deliver a message next door or across the planet. Gone are the days of special airmail stationery and colorful stamps to send letters abroad.

International payments are different. Destination still matters. You might use cash to pay for a cup of tea at a local shop, but not to order tea leaves from distant Sri Lanka. Depending on the carrier, the tea leaves might arrive before the seller can access the payment.

All of this may soon change. In a few years, cross-border payments and transactions could become as simple as sending an email.

Financial technology, or Fintech, is already touching consumers and businesses everywhere, from a local merchant seeking a loan, to the family planning for retirement, to the foreign worker sending remittances home.