Russian emails appear to show ‘network’ holding $4.5bn assets linked to Putin

Date: 21‑06‑2022

Source: The Guardian

Exclusive: Questions over palaces, vineyards and yachts run by entities that appear to be part of a cooperative

Vladimir Putin has been accused of secretly accumulating vast wealth through proxies.

Palaces, yachts and vineyards reportedly provided to Vladimir Putin by friends and oligarchs can now be linked to what appears to be an informal network holding assets worth more than $4.5bn (£3.7bn).

A digital paper trail appears to suggest that an array of holiday homes and other assets reportedly used by the Russian president, which according to available records belong to or have been owned by separate individuals, companies and charities, are linked through a common email domain name, LLCInvest.ru.

Let’s Count What Really Matters

Date: 20‑06‑2022

Source: Project Syndicate by Jayati Ghosh

Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, is a member of the UN Secretary‑General’s High‑Level Advisory Board on Effective Multilateralism. 

Regularly tracking four alternative economic indicators would provide a very different view of comparative performance from the one that emerges from GDP‑based analysis. And public awareness of this revised view of reality could well mobilize support for fundamental different policies at the national and international level.

MEXICO CITY – Despite the well‑known problems with using gross domestic product as an indicator of human development, policymakers around the world still seem to be obsessed with it. Governments seek to promote GDP growth through all possible means, often regardless of the wider consequences for the planet and the distribution of rewards. The current focus on quarterly growth reflects a particularly unhealthy short‑term perspective. And yet the International Monetary Fund and other multilateral organizations refer to GDP in all assessments of economic performance and make it the sole focus of their forecasts.

How the US Could Lose the New Cold War

Date: 18‑06‑2022

Source: Project Syndicate by Joseph E. Stiglitz

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University, is a former chief economist of the World Bank (1997‑2000), chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, and co‑chair of the High‑Level Commission on Carbon Prices. He is a member of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation and was lead author of the 1995 IPCC Climate Assessment. 

Since the United States seems serious about confronting China in an extended contest for global supremacy, it had better start getting its own house in order. Other countries will not want to ally themselves with a power that rests on increasingly uncertain economic, social, and political foundations.

NEW YORK – The United States appears to have entered a new cold war with both China and Russia. And US leaders’ portrayal of the confrontation as one between democracy and authoritarianism fails the smell test, especially at a time when the same leaders are actively courting a systematic human‑rights abuser like Saudi Arabia. Such hypocrisy suggests that it is at least partly global hegemony, not values, that is really at stake.

Gradually Worse

• John Mauldin, Thoughts from the Frontline|
• June 17, 2022

Anguish All Around: Against Gradualism

This time last year, the great debate was whether inflation would be “transitory.” That question is now settled (Narrator: “It wasn’t transitory at all.”), we have moved on to debating what the Federal Reserve will do about it… and can do about it.

The experts at the Strategic Investment Conference fell into two camps: The Fed will move either a) too fast and spark a deep recession, or b) too slow and let inflation get much worse. (There’s a theoretical chance the Fed finds a perfect path in between, but I don’t know anyone who seriously expects it.) That means we are heading somewhere unpleasant; the only question is what kind of unpleasantry we’ll get.

What the Ukraine War Should Teach China

Date: 09‑06‑2022

Source: Project Syndicate by Minxin Pei

Minxin Pei, Professor of Government at Claremont McKenna College, is a non‑resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. 

Russia’s military has performed far worse than expected in Ukraine. This does not bode well for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, which shares many of the same weaknesses, some of which – such as politicization and lack of combat experience – are even more pronounced.

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – As Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its fourth month, the endgame remains murky. But one thing is clear: Russia’s military has taken a beating from Ukrainian forces that, at the start of the conflict, were thought to be no match for it. For China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which shares many of the deficiencies that are undercutting Russia’s effectiveness on the battlefield, this should be a wake‑up call.

Can Nuclear Energy Come Back from the Grave?

Date: 09‑06‑2022

Source: Project Syndicate by Nick Butler

Nick Butler, a visiting professor at King’s College London, is Founding Chair of the Kings Policy Institute and Chair of Promus Associates.

From China to the United Kingdom, policymakers regard nuclear power as part of the solution to the twin challenges of energy security and climate change. But it remains to be seen whether the industry will finally establish itself as a major global electricity supplier, or again fail to live up to its promise.

LONDON – Nuclear power has been in decline since the Fukushima disaster in Japan more than a decade ago, but it may be poised for a comeback. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and soaring natural‑gas prices have led some to argue that nuclear energy can help solve the twin challenges of energy security and climate change. Is the industry back in business, or will this prove to be another false dawn?

Understanding the New Nationalism

Date: 09‑06‑2022

Source: Project Syndicate by Daron Acemoglu

Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics at MIT, is co‑author (with James A. Robinson) of Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty (Profile, 2019) and The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty (Penguin, 2020).

 While undoubtedly yielding large benefits, the post‑Cold War project of globalization also created the conditions for resurgent nationalism around the world. With their international credibility at low ebb, Western policymakers will need to rethink how they engage economically and politically with countries that have embraced it.

CAMBRIDGE – The euphoria after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 was not just about what Francis Fukuyama called an “unabashed victory of economic and political liberalism.” It was also about the decline of nationalism. With the world economy rapidly becoming more integrated, it was assumed that people would leave their national identities behind. The project of European integration – embraced enthusiastically by well‑educated, upwardly mobile young people – was not just supranational, but post‑national.

Will Europe’s Embargo on Russian Oil Succeed?

Date: 07‑06‑2022

Source: Project Syndicate by Daniel Gros

Daniel Gros is a member of the board and a distinguished fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies. 

Europe’s decision to ban most Russian oil imports is based on a simple calculation: because the EU accounts for about half of Russia’s oil exports, an embargo would roughly halve Russia’s oil‑export revenues. But the reality is more complicated.

BRUSSELS – As the war in Ukraine passes the 100‑day mark, it is worth asking how much damage Western sanctions have done to Russia’s economy, and whether forthcoming measures – especially the European Union’s newly announced embargo on most Russian oil – can change Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategic calculations.

Oil used to provide the bulk of Russia’s export earnings. In December 2021, exports stood at 7.8 million barrels per day – an annual rate exceeding 2.8 billion barrels. While this is a pre‑invasion figure, Russia is expected to maintain robust export capacity until lack of access to cutting‑edge Western equipment limits production.

The Other Side of US Exceptionalism

Date: 08‑06‑2022

Source: Project Syndicate by Dani Rodrik

Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, is President of the International Economic Association and the author of Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy (Princeton University Press, 2017). 

American policymakers readily conflate the goal of reasserting US global primacy with the establishment of a more secure and prosperous world order. But the myth of US exceptionalism too often blinds them to the reality of how they exercise power.

CAMBRIDGE – When I started teaching at Harvard’s Kennedy School in the mid‑1980s, competition with Japan was the dominant preoccupation of US economic policy. The book Japan as Number One by Harvard’s premier Japan expert at the time, Ezra Vogel, set the tone of the debate.

I remember being struck back then by the degree to which the discussion, even among academics, was tinged by a certain sense of American entitlement to international preeminence. The United States could not let Japan dominate key industries and had to respond with its own industrial and trade policies – not just because these might help the US economy, but also because the US simply could not be number two.

Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine, says Emmanuel Macron

Date: 05‑06‑2022

Source: The Guardian

French president says door must be left open to allow for improvement in diplomatic relations after war

Macron has said Vladimir Putin made a ‘historic and fundamental’ error in invading Ukraine.

Russia must not be humiliated in Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron has said, to allow an improvement in diplomatic relations between the west and Moscow whenever the war comes to an end.

The French president said his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, had made a “historic and fundamental” error in invading Ukraine, but that nevertheless a wider escalation in hostilities had to be avoided.