Die nächste Finanzkrise naht! – Nun doch einige Antworten der Spitzenkandidaten zur EU-Wahl

Das Dokument:    Was haben wir aus der Finanzkrise gelernt _ Neue Krise

25. April 2019.

Dieser Brief erging an die Spitzenkandidaten der Parteien zur EU-Wahl:

der Föhrenbergkreis ist der führende Think-Tank zur Finanzkrise. Wir haben Followers aus 151 Ländern.

Seit 2008 ist nichts Seriöses zur Verhinderung der nächsten Krise passiert. Und wir haben die große Sorge, dass etwa ab 2020 der nächste Tsunami droht, ärger als 2008 (weil ja inzwischen nicht entschuldet wurde, ganz im Gegenteil!). Diesmal wird es besonders die Arbeitsplätze treffen, was ja durchaus gegen Ihre Kerninteressen geht.

Dass die EU am wenigsten getan hat, liegt nicht an den Staaten, sondern ausschließlich an den EU-Institutionen. Dabei ist das EU-Parlament ja peinlich wirkungslos geblieben. Und wir sehen dieses (unter den zwei wichtigsten) Thema nicht ordentlich auf der Agenda der wahlwerbenden Parteien bzw. deren Spitzenkandidaten.

Deswegen haben wir die beiliegende Analyse erstellt, mit den Fragen an die 7 Spitzenkandidaten Österreichs. Wir werden Ihre Antworten – zusammen mit den anderen – auf unserer Homepage – und mit wichtigen Medien – veröffentlichen und bitten um Ihre Stellungnahme bis 19. Mai.

Update 23/05/2019.

Grüne

Als Einzige haben zeitgerecht die Grünen (Werner Kogler) geantwortet, also die mit den geringsten Ressourcen. Wohl auch, weil sie als Einzige gute Vorschläge in Ihrem Programm haben, sogar den Vorschlag zu einem Trennbankensystem. Wahlprogramm_DieGruenen_EPWahl2019  Siehe SS. 16/17.

Nach einer Urgenz haben andere Spitzenkandidaten wie folgt geantwortet:

ÖVP/Karas: Mi. 22.05.2019 23:28

Sehr geehrter Herr Professor Karner,

With Great Demographics Comes Great Power

Date: 15-06-2019
Source: Foreign Affairs By Nicholas Eberstadt

Why Population Will Drive Geopolitics

Demographics may not be destiny, but for students of geopolitics, they come close. Although conventional measures of economic and military power often receive more attention, few factors influence the long-term competition between great powers as much as changes in the size, capabilities, and characteristics of national populations.

The United States is a case in point. In 1850, the United States was home to some 23 million people, 13 million fewer than France. Today, the U.S. population is close to 330 million, larger than the British, Dutch, French, German, and Italian populations combined. For more than a century, the United States has had the world’s largest skilled work force, and by measures such as mean years of adult schooling, it has long had among the world’s most highly educated populations. These favorable demographic fundamentals, more than geography or natural resources, explain why the United States emerged as the world’s preeminent economic and military power after World War II—and why it still occupies that position today.

Europe’s Populists Are Here to Stay

Date: 15-06-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Matthew Goodwin

New parties are finding success by addressing the concerns of voters who feel neglected and disdained by liberal elites.

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“Only five years ago the newspapers were talking about the League being extinct. Now we are the biggest party in the north and the south [of Italy].” This was the triumphant statement of Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, after his national populist party, the League, finished first among Italian voters in last month’s election for the European Parliament.

“It is not only the League that is the first party,” continued Mr. Salvini, the de facto head of Europe’s growing national populist family. “Marine Le Pen is the biggest party in France. Nigel Farage has the biggest party in Great Britain. It is a sign of a Europe that has changed.”

Mr. Salvini and his allies have reason to feel confident. The percentage of seats in the European Parliament now held by populists of all stripes—whether left populists, right populists or others that aren’t easily defined, like the 5 Star Movement in Italy or Britain’s new Brexit Party—hit an all-time high of 29%. But it is the national populists who are most successful. From the League in Italy to National Rally in France, Vox in Spain and the Sweden Democrats, this party family has a record 16% of seats in the European Parliament. They are nowhere near a majority, but they have consolidated and are now a more disruptive force.

National populist parties share a common approach and program. They seek to advance what they see as the interests and culture of their country’s ethno-cultural majority; they present themselves as giving voice to people who feel neglected, even held in contempt, by distant, self-serving liberal elites.

Amazon’s next big thing may redefine big

Date: 15-06-2019
Source: BBC

„I see Amazon as a technology company that just happened to do retail,“ begins Werner Vogels, Amazon’s chief technology officer.

„When Jeff [Bezos] started Amazon, he wasn’t thinking about starting a bookshop. He was really fascinated by the internet.”

Only „mortal humans“, he tells me in an interview, ever saw Amazon as merely a retailer. So the question now is: what will Amazon become next? And are mere mortals ready for it?

Its recent Re:Mars event in Las Vegas demonstrated clearly – through presentations about machine-learning, robotics and space – that the firm is going through a transition phase that, if successful, will redefine its relationship with the public.

Saalschlacht in der Notenbank oder warum dort ein Rechter ausgezeichnet wird

Renate Graber,15. Juni 2019, 10:00 derstandard.at

In der Nationalbank wird ein Konferenz mit „libertären“ Ökonomen stattfinden – inklusive Preisverleihung an einen extrem rechten Ökonomen. (Mit-)Veranstalterin: OeNB-Vizepräsidentin Kolm

So richtig willkommen ist sie – aus jetziger Sicht – nicht. Im Kassensaal der Oesterreichischen Nationalbank (OeNB) findet am 13. und 14. November eine internationale Konferenz statt, die Austrian Economics Center sowie Hayek-Institut unter Barbara Kolm (mit)veranstalten. Konferiert wird laut Ankündigung im Internet über „Die österreichische Schule der Nationalökonomie im 21. Jahrhundert“, „libertäre“ Ökonomen werden die Referate halten, ebensolche teilnehmen. Und: Dem umstrittenen US-Historiker, Autor, Blogger und Podcaster (Contra Krugman) Thomas Woods soll der 2019 Hayek Lifetime Achievemet Award verliehen werden. Woods gilt als Murray-Rothbard-Anhänger; der US-Ökonom war Vordenker der anarchokapitalistischen Bewegung und der Libertarian Party. Harvard- und Columbia-Absolvent Wood war zudem bei der Gründung der rassistischen, weißen und nationalistischen League of the South dabei, die er auch unterstützte. Man könnte ihn also getrost einen extrem Rechten nennen.

„Nowotny nicht zuständig“

How to stop governments borrowing behind their people’s backs

Date: 13-06-2019
Source: The Economist

Principles on debt transparency endorsed at a G20 summit may help

In 2016 the government of Mozambique confessed to secret debts of $1.4bn, or 11% of gdp, mostly as loan guarantees for state-backed companies. Growth faltered, the currency slumped and foreign donors pulled back. The results have been “devastating”, says Denise Namburete, a civil-society activist, describing health centres that have gone two years without medicines. American prosecutors are pursuing eight people involved in the scandal, including three foreign bankers and a former finance minister, on charges of money-laundering and fraud.

The Mozambique case may be unusual—or not. Even the imf is scratching its head about how much governments truly owe. In some places the mystery is loans from China and other emerging lenders. In others it is advance payments from oil traders, liabilities from public-private partnerships or hidden loans from commercial banks. The Institute of International Finance (iif), a group of banks and financial institutions, has responded to mounting concern by drafting principles on debt transparency. Finance ministers of g20 countries endorsed them at a summit in Fukuoka, in Japan, on June 8th-9th.

Drone deliveries are advancing in health care

Date: 13-06-2019
Source: The Economist

No longer just in Africa, but in Europe and America too

A few years ago Jeff Bezos made a prediction. By 2018 his e-commerce empire, Amazon, would be delivering items by drone. Prime Air has yet to launch. But startups are making progress—mostly in health care, where they are vying to tap into a lucrative, $70bn global market in health-care logistics. As they deal with regulators and investors, these firms are charting the course for other aerial deliveries.

One of the best known is Zipline, based in San Francisco. It took off in Rwanda in 2016, where it is now a national on-demand medical drone network, delivering 150 medical products, mostly blood and vaccines, to hard-to-reach places. Maternal mortality rates are declining thanks to the delivery of blood. Other firms have used drones to supply medicines in Bhutan, Malawi and Papua New Guinea. Patients in many Swiss hospitals can receive results on the day a sample is taken. Zipline is expanding into Ghana and, later this year, into North Carolina, an American state with many out-of-the-way rural medical facilities. It wants to serve 700m people in the next three to four years.

Why Erkki Liikanen should be the ECB’s next boss

I fully agree. He was leading the (unsuccessful) Liikanen Commission to regulate the EU Banking Industry. When he was commissioner in Brussels he flew once into Vienna to just meet us from the Föhrenbergkreis to discuss our work on „Spurensuche nach einer neuen Wirtschaftsordnung“. And he promoted our ideas in Brussels. (hfk)

Date: 13-06-2019
Source: The Economist

Mario Draghi’s successor must have expertise, judgment and political skills

One of the biggest jobs in Europe is up for grabs: head of the European Central Bank (ecb). It sets interest rates across much of the continent, supervises banks and underwrites the euro, used by 19 countries with 341m citizens. The ecb’s outgoing boss, Mario Draghi, who steps down in October after eight years in charge, has done a sterling job in difficult circumstances. His tenure illustrates what is at stake. After a sovereign-debt crisis in 2010-12 threatened to sink the euro, it was Mr Draghi who ended the financial panic by pledging that the ecb would do “whatever it takes” to stop the euro zone from breaking up.

Although he saved the euro, Mr Draghi leaves behind problems. The economy is faltering; a recession at some point in the next eight years is possible. There is little prospect of fiscal easing—Germany doesn’t want to borrow more and southern Europe can’t afford to. So monetary policy is the main lever to stimulate growth. Unfortunately interest rates are close to zero. And the risk of another debt crisis bubbles away. Italy’s populists have been ignoring demands from the European Commission to take control of the public debt, now 132% of gdp.

Europe’s political leaders will gather on June 20th and 21st to divide up the top jobs in Europe, including the ecb presidency. The temptation will be to make the central-bank position part of the horse-trading, picking the new chief on the basis of nationality. Instead, for Europe’s sake, the selection should be determined by three tests: economic expertise, political talent and sound judgment.

Technical competence matters. Interest rates are so low that the bank’s toolbox may need to be expanded in creative ways. Political nous is more important than at other big central banks such as the Federal Reserve. The new boss must build support in the bank’s 25-strong rate-setting body, and across 19 national governments and their citizens. The bank must also make the case for further reform to the euro zone, without which banking and sovereign-debt crises are a constant danger. And, if a crisis does strike, sound judgment becomes paramount. If the markets sniff equivocation or muddle from the ecb president, the financial system could rapidly spiral out of control, as panicky investors dump the bonds of weaker banks and countries.

The ECB presidency is distinct but not immune from backroom deals

Date: 13-06-2019
Source: The Economist
Subject: Triangulation

Europe works in strange ways

“The longest lunch in history” is how Jonathan Powell, an adviser to Tony Blair, a former British prime minister, has described the appointment of the first head of the European Central Bank (ecb) in 1998. The French, keen to have their man in the job, had convinced the Germans that Wim Duisenberg, a Dutchman, should serve only half of his eight-year term before making way for a Frenchman. Mr Duisenberg resisted, giving in only after midnight.

The choice in 2011 of the third and current president, Mario Draghi, an Italian, involved less drama. Even so, France and Italy fell out after Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, another Italian on the bank’s six-strong executive board, initially refused to give way to a French national. “What can I do? Shall I kill him?” Silvio Berlusconi, then Italy’s prime minister, asked Nicolas Sarkozy when his French counterpart complained.

Mr Draghi departs in October. What tales will be told of his successor’s selection? The scope for theatrics is greater than ever. The choice is always political: national leaders make nominations and eventually agree on a name. But Mr Draghi’s term ends in the wake of European elections, as they are also deciding other top jobs. At a summit on June 20th-21st the European Council of leaders aspires to pull off a package deal covering the key roles. Succeed or no, the next few months will be a test of whether the process for choosing the next ecb leader has become any more sensible.

The question is not who will lead the Conservative Party, but whether it will survive

Date: 13-06-2019
Source: The Economist: Bagehot

Brexit could prove to be an extinction event for the party that has dominated British politics for much of the past century-and-a-half

There are few things that Britain’s Conservatives relish more than a leadership election. For candidates, it is a chance to talk about their favourite subject—themselves. For mps and party members, it is an opportunity to trade their votes for favours or flattery. But the brighter Tories recognise that this is a leadership election with a difference: this time they are dancing on the edge of a volcano. The natural party of government for much of the past century-and-a-half could face catastrophe, in the form of an internal split or a wipeout in the next election.

The party’s recent electoral performance has been disastrous. It saw its vote-share crumble to 9% in the European election last month and then came third in the Peterborough by-election. It is polling below 20%. Any honeymoon the next party leader enjoys is sure to be brief, for the Conservatives run a minority government that is trying to push through a complicated and controversial divorce bill in the face of profound divisions in their own ranks, not to mention the country, and mounting impatience in Brussels. The next prime minister could face a vote of no confidence within a month and a general election within a year.

Tory candidates are misleading people about a no-deal Brexit

Date: 13-06-2019
Source: The Economist

Hardliners say it would be fine, moderates say it could be stopped. Both may be in for a nasty surprise

Fully ten leadership candidates faced a first ballot of Conservative mps as we went to press. In hopes of being one of the final two to go through to a vote by party members, they are vying to promise the most extravagant tax and spending plans. But the immediate challenge for the winner, who will take office in late July, will be Brexit, which is due to happen three months later. And here the promises vary from instant renegotiation of Britain’s exit deal to withdrawing with no deal at all.

The timing is tight. Parliament is likely to go into recess just after the new prime minister is installed, and the European Union will go on holiday. mps come back in September, but for less than two weeks before their party conferences. Brussels will be preoccupied with getting a new commission approved by the European Parliament by November 1st. A summit of eu leaders on October 17th-18th will come just a fortnight before the Brexit deadline.