Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

The Anatomy of Populist Economics

Posted by hkarner - 26. Februar 2017

Date: 24-02-2017
Source: Project Syndicate

BRIGITTE GRANVILLE

Brigitte Granville is Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy at the School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London. She is the author of Remembering Inflation and a forthcoming book on the French predicament on the eve of the country’s presidential and parliamentary elections in 2017.

PARIS – For at least the past year, populism has been wreaking havoc on Western democracies. Populist forces – parties, leaders, and ideas – underpinned the “Leave” campaign’s victory in the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States. Now, populism lurks ominously in the background of the Netherlands’ general election in March and the French presidential election in April and May.

But, despite populism’s seeming ubiquity, it is a hard concept to pin down. Populists are often intolerant of outsiders and those who are different; and yet Geert Wilders, the far-right Dutch populist leader, is a firm believer in gay rights. In the US, Trump’s presidential campaign was described as an anti-elite movement; and yet his administration is already practically a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Shallow State

Posted by hkarner - 26. Februar 2017

Date: 24-02-2017
Source: Foreign Policy, David Rothkopf

David Rothkopf is CEO and editor of the FP Group. His latest book, National Insecurity: American Leadership in an Age of Fear, was released in paperback earlier this year.
Forget the conspiracy theories. Something much more dangerous is seeking to gut our government and change the character of our society.

trump-tweety-birdThe “deep state” is the flavor of the month for conspiracy theorists, the “black helicopters” of 2017. The idea of career intelligence and military officers and bureaucrats marshaling the institutional power they have spent decades mastering to advance their goals regardless of the whims or wants of elected public officials or the people at large is irresistible, Tom Clancy stuff.

But I’ve seen what there is of a deep state, and let me tell you, based on very nearly 25 years living and working in Washington, it is not the dark fantasy of highly competent government workers that worries me.

No, what worries me is something new, more real, and much more dangerous: the shallow state. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Tony Blair’s Democratic Insurrection

Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2017

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Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2017

Date: 24-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By JAMES MACKINTOSH
Subject: Can You Make Money in a Euro Collapse?

In a euro breakup scenario, there are a few ways bond investors can protect against a redenomination into a devalued currency

As Europe is roiled by fears of a breakup of its currency, investors and lawyers have begun digging through bond documentation in the hope of finding ways to protect themselves against the possible return of the franc, lire and deutsche mark.

The plethora of bonds available offer many ways to bet on the possibility of the end of the euro. One opportunity comes from ancient bonds dating from before the single currency was created, another from bonds sold under English rather than French or Italian law. But so far, investors seem to be making significant bets on only the simplest option—that of switching to the bonds of safe countries such as Germany, even though the safety that its bonds appear to offer could prove illusory in a worst-case European breakup.

There is no sure-fire way to protect an investment against what would be the biggest default in history—the redenomination of French or Italian bonds from euros into new francs and lire. Even though the bonds would be paid in full in francs or lire, investors paid in the devalued currencies would still class it as a default. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Battle for Britain

Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2017

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European Central Bankers Don’t Like What They’re Hearing From Trump

Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2017

Date: 24-02-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Political style and economic policy, particularly protectionism, concern pro-globalization policy makers

trump-ccPresident Donald Trump, has sent up enough protectionist flags to concern EU central bankers.

Two top European central bankers had harsh words about the economic policy coming from the U.S. in remarks Thursday.

The establishment of protectionist policies in the U.S. risks undermining a key element to wealth, the head of Germany’s central bank said.

The blunt language reflects the concern felt across the globe from policy makers as they try to make sense of President Donald Trump’s unconventional economic policy and political style.

“The U.S. erecting trade barriers leading to other countries becoming more protectionist would, I firmly believe, potentially call into question one of the key pillars of our prosperity,” said Jens Weidmann in the opening of the central bank’s annual report.

The new president’s administration has angered many in Germany by accusing Europe’s largest economy of unfairly benefiting from an undervalued euro. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Are technology firms madly overvalued?

Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2017

Date: 23-02-2017
Source: The Economist: Schumpeter

Three financial sanity tests for whether there is a bubble

madly-overvaluedIS THE technology industry in La La Land? There are alarming signs. House prices in San Francisco have risen by 66% more than in New York over the past five years. Even at the height of the dotcom bubble in 2001, the gap was lower, at 58%. Shares of technology firms trade on their highest ratio to sales since the turn of the century. Four of the world’s most valuable firms are tech companies: Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. Snap, a tiddler with $400m of sales and $700m of cash losses in 2016, is expected to list shares on March 1st that will give it a valuation of over $20bn.

For companies and investors in any industry, it is hard to work out if you are living in a bubble. To help, Schumpeter has created three sanity tests for global tech firms. These examine their cashflow, whether investors differentiate between companies, and whether forecasts of their future earnings suffer from a fallacy of composition. The exercise suggests that tech valuations are frothy, but not bubbling. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why taxing robots is not a good idea

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2017

Date: 23-02-2017
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

Bill Gates’s proposal is revealing about the challenge automation poses

BILL GATES is an unlikely Luddite, however much Microsoft may have provoked people to take a hammer to their computers. Yet in a recent interview with Quartz, an online publication, he expressed scepticism about society’s ability to manage rapid automation. To forestall a social crisis, he mused, governments should consider a tax on robots; if automation slows as a result, so much the better. It is an intriguing if impracticable idea, which reveals a lot about the challenge of automation.

In some distant future robots with their own consciousnesses, nest-eggs and accountants might pay income taxes like the rest of us (presumably with as much enthusiasm). That is not what Mr Gates has in mind. He argues that today’s robots should be taxed—either their installation, or the profits firms enjoy by saving on the costs of the human labour displaced. The money generated could be used to retrain workers, and perhaps to finance an expansion of health care and education, which provide lots of hard-to-automate jobs in teaching or caring for the old and sick. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mapping the Future of AI

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2017

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It’s Like the Financial Crisis Never Happened…

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2017

Date: 23-02-2017
Source: The Economist

A decade since the U.S. subprime crisis began, and everything’s wonderful on Wall Street

wall-street-ccA decade after the world began to notice the losses on derivatives linked to the toxic waste of structured subprime mortgages, American stocks have produced such big returns that the biggest crash in generations barely registers.

The 10-year average compound return on U.S. shares was 4.9% a year after inflation at the start of 2016, only slightly below the average for world stocks since the end of the Gilded Age in 1900, according to calculations for Credit Suisse by Elroy Dimson,Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School.

The same isn’t true for the rest of the world. British stocks made only 3% after inflation, including dividends, in the past decade, while real Japanese returns were barely positive and French shares delivered less than 2%. German stocks weren’t quite so bad thanks to its export powerhouses, and their 4.3% return adjusted for inflation is in line with the very long-term return from the world outside the U.S.

This global divergence is covered up by the record highs of global stocks in the past week. On Wednesday morning in London the MSCI All-Country World index was setting another new high after breaking the 2015 high a week ago. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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