Die nächste Finanzkrise naht! – Fragen an die Spitzenkandidaten zur EU-Wahl

Das Dokument:    Was haben wir aus der Finanzkrise gelernt _ Neue Krise

Dieser Brief erging an die Spitzenkandidaten der Parteien zur EU-Wahl:

der Föhrenbergkreis ist der führende Think-Tank zur Finanzkrise. Wir haben Followers aus 151 Ländern.

Seit 2008 ist nichts Seriöses zur Verhinderung der nächsten Krise passiert. Und wir haben die große Sorge, dass etwa ab 2020 der nächste Tsunami droht, ärger als 2008 (weil ja inzwischen nicht entschuldet wurde, ganz im Gegenteil!). Diesmal wird es besonders die Arbeitsplätze treffen, was ja durchaus gegen Ihre Kerninteressen geht.

Dass die EU am wenigsten getan hat, liegt nicht an den Staaten, sondern ausschließlich an den EU-Institutionen. Dabei ist das EU-Parlament ja peinlich wirkungslos geblieben. Und wir sehen dieses (unter den zwei wichtigsten) Thema nicht ordentlich auf der Agenda der wahlwerbenden Parteien bzw. deren Spitzenkandidaten.

Deswegen haben wir die beiliegende Analyse erstellt, mit den Fragen an die 7 Spitzenkandidaten Österreichs. Wir werden Ihre Antworten – zusammen mit den anderen – auf unserer Homepage – und mit wichtigen Medien – veröffentlichen und bitten um Ihre Stellungnahme bis 19. Mai.

Kick-Starting Brexit?

Date: 24-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject: British Government Tries to Kick-Start Brexit in Bid to Avoid EU Elections

Lawmakers have rejected Theresa May’s Brexit deal three times

LONDON—The British government is considering giving lawmakers a vote on a critical piece of Brexit legislation as early as next week, a change of tack as it tries to kick-start the country’s stuttering exit from the European Union.

British lawmakers returned to the Brexit treadmill Tuesday after an Easter break, to face the familiar conundrum: finding a deal on the U.K.’s exit from the EU that can win a majority in Parliament.

Prime Minister Theresa May wants the U.K. to formalize its departure from the trading bloc by May 22, so it doesn’t have to take part in elections for the European Parliament the following day.

Tech Offers a Virtual Window into Future Climate Change Risk

Date: 24-04-2019
Source: Scientific American

AI and supercomputing are rapidly shifting the way disaster planners, regulators and insurers gauge climate hazards

Accurately predicting the on-the-ground impacts of climate change remains one of the thorniest challenges facing scientists, regulators, planners and insurers.

But as climate disasters occur with alarming frequency, experts are relying more heavily on predictive technologies that leverage supercomputing and artificial intelligence to identify the where, how and why of climate impacts.

Known as “climate risk analytics,” the delivery of data-based predictive information about risks associated with wind, floods, fires, droughts and other climate disasters is rapidly proliferating, according to experts.

Germany’s Dirty Green Cars

Date: 24-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

Berlin and Brussels stifle innovation by picking ‘winners.’

A Tesla Inc. Model 3 electric automobile .

Germany’s worst industrial scandal in recent memory arrived when auto companies fiddled with emissions tests to make diesel cars seem greener than they are. Now a new study suggests that electric cars touted as a diesel alternative also aren’t so great for the environment.

A study this month by the IFO think tank in Munich found that a popular electric car releases more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than a comparable diesel engine. The authors compared CO2 output for a Tesla Model 3 and a Mercedes C220d sedan. They calculated that the diesel Mercedes releases about 141 grams of carbon dioxide per kilometer driven, including the carbon emitted to drill, refine and transport its fuel. The Tesla? Between 156 and 181 grams.

The main Tesla problem—and subject of a long-running debate—concerns the CO2 emitted to manufacture the battery. The IFO report pegs this at between 73 and 98 grams per kilometer, assuming a 10-year battery life at 15,000 kilometers of driving per year.

Te Problem With EU Foreign Policy

Date: 24-04-2019
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne

Too much historical baggage

Several mirage 2000 fighter jets took off from an air base in N’Djamena, Chad’s capital, on February 3rd and flew north over the savannah and the scrubby Sahel towards the Sahara Desert. There the French planes bombed a column of some 50 lorries carrying rebels south from the Libyan border. Paris’s action was co-ordinated not with the rest of the eu, but with Chad’s brutal government and Khalifa Haftar, the Libyan warlord who controls swathes of his country. Today France is still backing General Haftar as he shells the post-Qaddafi “government of national accord” in Tripoli. On April 10th Paris blocked an eu statement urging him to stop, infuriating its European allies.

Africa is churning and Asia is rising. President Donald Trump has raised doubts about the transatlantic alliance. Europe’s share of the world’s population and wealth is shrinking. Yet the eu still generates 22% of global gdp. And its members are trying to act more as one. In 1993 the eu established a mechanism for a “Common Foreign and Security Policy”. In 2011 it created the “European External Action Service”, a form of diplomatic corps, and a “high representative” to lead it (currently Federica Mogherini, an Italian). In the decade since then it has brokered a deal curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions and taken on pirates near the Horn of Africa. In February it held its first summit with the Arab League and on April 9th it deployed newly tough language in a summit with China. Its new “Permanent Structured Co-operation” provides a framework for mutual defence and inspires talk of a “European army”.

Naht der Winter für die EU?

Apr 23, 2019 Mark Leonard, Project Syndicate

Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

BERLIN – Ein weit verbreitetes Narrativ besagt, dass die Europawahlen im Mai der „dritte Akt“ in dem populistischen Drama sein werden, das 2016 mit dem Brexit-Referendum im Vereinigten Königreich und der Wahl von US-Präsident Donald Trump begann. Zu erwarten, so heißt es, sei ein großer Showdown zwischen den Kräften „offener“ und „geschlossener“ Gesellschaften, in dem die Zukunft der Europäischen Union auf dem Spiel steht. Es klingt alles sehr plausibel. Und es ist völlig falsch.

Der Brexit und die Wahl Trumps führten viele politische Analysten zu dem Schluss, dass auch die europäischen Wähler die etablierten Parteien für neue, identitätsgestützte Tribus aufgeben würden. Doch in Amerika sind die politischen und regionalen Trennlinien derart verfestigt, dass sie beeinflussen, wo jemand arbeitet, wen man heiratet und wie man die Welt betrachtet. Und im Vereinigten Königreich haben sich schon seit langem ähnliche Gräben zwischen Nord und Süd, jung und alt, Stadt und Land sowie Hochschulabsolventen und denjenigen, die keine Hochschule besucht haben, aufgebaut.

Kurz: „Schulden sind das Unsozialste, was ein Staat tun kann“!

24. April 2019, 13:43 derstandard.at

Die Regierung verspricht, die Schuldenquote unter die Marke von 60 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts zu drücken

Wien – Die Regierungsspitze hat sich am Mittwoch nach dem Ministerrat ob des beschlossenen Stabilitätsprogramms hocherfreut gezeigt. Kanzler Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) sprach angesichts dessen, dass keine neuen Schulden mehr eingemeldet werden, von einer „Trendwende“. „Seit 1954 erstmals keine neuen Schulden zu machen, das ist keine Selbstverständlichkeit“, ergänzte Vizekanzler Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ). Schulden seien das „Unsozialste“, was ein Staat seinen Bürgern antun könne, „aber auch, was er den nachfolgenden Generationen antun kann“, sagte Kurz im Presserfoyer nach der Regierungssitzung. Das Erreichen des Nulldefizits sei keineswegs nur der Konjunktur geschuldet sei: „Ich bitte um einen Funken Objektivität“, sagte Kurz. Denn wenn man zurückblicke, so habe es auch in der Vergangenheit wirtschaftlich „sehr starke Jahre“ gegeben. Aber damals sei eines immer gleich geblieben: „Es gab immer neue Schulden. Es gab schon viele Jahre in der Geschichte, wo die Konjunktur gleich gut oder besser war als im vergangenen Jahr – und trotzdem wurde immer mehr ausgegeben. Insofern kann man stolz sein, dass es uns als Bundesregierung gelungen ist, diese 60 Jahre andauernde Schuldenpolitik zu stoppen“, noch dazu bei „gleichzeitiger Steuerentlastung“.

Maastricht-Ziel für 2023 angepeilt „

Ja, da sind wir wirklich froh, aber auch stolz darauf“, sagte Strache über die Budgetdaten. „Die Stabilitätsdaten stellen sicher, dass wir keine neuen Schulden machen.“ Zwar sei es „vollkommen richtig, wenn immer behauptet wird, es liegt an der guten Konjunktur – ja, auch“, räumte er ein. „Aber in der Vergangenheit haben die Sozialisten bewiesen, dass es auch für sie bei guter Konjunktur kein Problem war, Steuergeld zu verschwenden.“

Das Zerrbild der Deutschen vom Sozialstaat

23-04-2019

Von Dorothea Siems, welt.de

Chefkorrespondentin für Wirtschaftspolitik

Ökonomen haben untersucht, wovor sich die Deutschen am meisten fürchten – und festgestellt, dass diese Ängste sich nur selten mit der Realität decken. Insbesondere die Mittelschicht fühlt sich ungerecht behandelt. Eine gefährliche Entwicklung.

Altersarmut, Pflegenotstand, sozialer Abstieg oder wachsende Kriminalität – die Deutschen machen sich große Sorgen um die Zukunft. Und ihr Vertrauen, dass der Staat sie vor diesen Risiken schützen kann, schwindet.

Wie kritisch die Bundesbürger den Sozialstaat sehen, zeigt eine breit angelegte repräsentative Umfrage, die die Industrieländerorganisation OECD in 21 Staaten durchführen ließ. Obwohl Deutschland sich im zehnten Jahr eines Konjunkturaufschwungs befindet, sich der Vollbeschäftigung nähert und immerhin fast ein Drittel der gesamten Wirtschaftsleistung für Soziales aufwendet, sind die Sorgen hierzulande keineswegs geringer als in vielen ärmeren Ländern oder Staaten mit einer größeren sozialen Ungleichheit. Außerdem fühlt sich ein Großteil der Deutschen vom Sozialstaat unfair behandelt. Die OECD-Studie „Risks that matter“ zu den wirtschaftlichen und sozialen Ängsten haben die Forscher nun im Internet veröffentlicht.

Fragt man die Bundesbürger, welche drei Risiken sie kurzfristig am meisten fürchten, kommt die Angst vor Krankheit und Behinderung an erster Stelle. Gut jeden Zweiten treibt die Sorge um, er könnte in ein oder zwei Jahren gesundheitliche Probleme bekommen. Die Furcht vor Kriminalität und Gewalt nennen die Bundesbürger mit 47 Prozent am zweithäufigsten.

India Struggles to Employ an Exploding Population

Date: 22-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject: ‘The Youth Bulge’: India Struggles to Employ an Exploding Population

As Indians elect a government, the country’s economy faces a challenge that could define its global success in the years ahead

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party were featured in this recent campaign advertisement in Beed, Maharashtra, India.

SAHARANPUR, India—Amid the cacophony of India’s general election, now in
full swing as up to 900 million people vote over five weeks, one note rings through: the shortage of jobs for the country’s exploding youth population.

The high hopes Prime Minister Narendra Modi sparked in the 2014 election when he promised “achhe din,” or good times, are now colliding with economic distress in rural areas. Around this northern Indian city and in similar regions across the country, legions of young Indians struggle to survive in the informal economy while unable to find regular jobs in the cities either.

Agriculture provides nearly half India’s employment, even though those workers earn less than 20% of the national income. That imbalance hasn’t changed much in the past five years under Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led government, which is running for reelection. India hasn’t created the sorts of entry-level manufacturing jobs for rural workers, either, as happened in China and other Asian countries that successfully established export industries.

Work in the Year 2030

Date: 23-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Expect robots, re-skilling

April 12, 2019 – Orlando, Florida, United States – Customer orders are carried on a conveyor system at the newest Amazon Robotics fulfillment center during its first public tour on April 12, 2019 in the Lake Nona community of Orlando, Florida. The over 855,000 square foot facility opened on August 26, 2018 and employs more than 1500 full-time associates who pick, pack, and ship customer orders with the assistance of hundreds of robots which can lift as much as 750 pounds and drive 5 feet per second.

A number of recent studies have taken a close look at the the future of work over the next 10 to 15 years. Recently the World Economic Forum in collaboration with the Boston Consulting Group released the Eight Futures of Work Scenarios and Their Implications. The white paper considered eight distinct scenarios on what work might be like by 2030, based on different combinations of three of the most impactful and uncertain variables affecting the future of work: the rate of technological change; the evolution of learning in the workforce; and the magnitude of talent mobility across geographies.

For simplicity, the study considered two possible outcomes for each variable:

Technological Change. Developments in data science, AI, robotics, IoT, blockchain and other advanced technologies will have a major impact on labor markets over the next 10 – 15 years. The two possible outcomes are:

Ÿ       Steady: Change proceeds at the current (or slower) pace, with large-scale automation of blue- and white-collar routine tasks, but higher skilled tasks remain relatively untouched.
Ÿ       Accelerated: In addition to routine tasks, machines become capable of performing non-routine tasks requiring cognitive skills, as well as a wide range of physical tasks.

Learning Evolution. An even larger challenge will be ensuring that workers have the skills and support needed to transition to new jobs. The growing demand for expertise in rapidly advancing technologies will require continuous training. We’ll see increased demand for human skills like creativity, originality, critical thinking, emotional intelligence, leadership, reasoning, problem solving and ideation. The two outcomes considered are:

Ÿ       Slow: Many displaced workers compete for fewer roles that match their skills, while companies face increasing talent shortages.
Ÿ       Fast: Concerns about technological change and talent gaps lead o reforms in education systems. Companies invest heavily in the training and re-skilling of their workers, which along with lifelong learning help create a dynamic, creative workforce.

Talent Mobility. The third major variable, worker’s movement within and across borders, will be affected by a number of factors, including economic opportunities, travel regulations, crises and conflicts. The two possible outcomes are:

Ÿ       Low: National as well as local governments impose restrictions on migration to protect jobs in the short term. Talent shortages impact economic growth, while low levels of mobility dampen the exchange of new ideas and the expansion of markets.
Ÿ       High: Large scale movements of people searching for better opportunities become the norm. High-skilled workers flow to high-income enclaves, which are generally concentrated in large urban areas all around the world.

The eight future of work scenarios are based on different combinations of these three variables. Let me briefly summarize the salient qualities of each.

Workforce Autarkies: Steady technological change; slow learning evolution; low talent mobility.

Workforce autarkies are nationalist economies that aim to be self-sufficient. “Reacting to the worries of displaced workers, governments have imposed restrictions on international labour mobility and sought to fulfil their economies’ talent needs internally.” State protectionism can provide some relief to lower-skilled workers, but forces employers to move work requiring higher-skilled talent to countries with unrestricted markets. “The resulting reduction in knowledge transfer and continued talent shortfalls for local companies has reduced growth and dynamism over time, reducing the capacity of local labour markets.”

Mass Movement: Steady technological change; slow learning evolution; high talent mobility

In this scenario, both lower- and higher-skilled workers are on the move searching for better opportunities. This helps businesses access the best talent, but increases competition between workers at all skills levels, potentially leading to social tensions.

Robot Replacement: Accelerated technological change; slow learning evolution; low talent mobility

In this scenario, technology and machines advance rapidly while many in the workplace are unable to keep pace and face shrinking opportunities, further leading to increased automation. This hollowing out of the labor market will potentially lead to “deep and growing inequalities, polarized values and divided views about technology,” with conflict on the rise.

Empowered Entrepreneurs: Steady technological change; fast learning evolution; low talent mobility

This scenario is characterized by a highly skilled, motivated workforce, leading to a dynamic market for workers to create entrepreneurial opportunities for themselves. It might also lead to governments restricting labor mobility to protect their investments in high-skilled talent.

Polarized World: Accelerated technological change, slow learning evolution; high talent mobility

The combination of accelerated technological change and slow learning has led to large sections of the workforce being unemployable, while the lack of human skills is increasing the pressure to automate. Deep and growing inequalities dominate society, with large-scale movements of people within and across countries in search of opportunities. Affluent, globally-dispersed urban super-economies trade ideas, goods and services with each other.

Skilled Flows: Steady technological change, fast learning evolution; high talent mobility

The fast pace of learning has led to a highly skilled, motivated, dynamic workforce across a range of industries and sectors. Labor mobility within and cross borders has become the norm, with credentials and degrees increasingly standardized across countries and regions.

Productive Locals: Accelerated technological change, fast learning evolution; low talent mobility

The combination of accelerated technological changes and fast learning leads to a strong demand for high-skilled human workers to work with and complement increasingly smart machines. However, low mobility lead to talent shortages and dampen the exchange of new ideas and expansion of markets, causing companies and workers to focus on their local economies.

Agile Adapters: Accelerated technological change, fast learning evolution; high talent mobility.

“There is a strong demand for human workers to complement machines, manage the shifts underway and specialize in new kinds of roles… High talent mobility within countries and across borders, combined with widespread opportunities for online platform work that crosses borders, has created a global workforce that is highly agile, productive and globalized, rapidly diffusing values, ideas, technologies, goods and services around the world.”

The white paper makes it clear that scenarios are not predictions, which, in the end would be an impossible feat. Rather the scenarios are designed to stimulate discussions among policy-makers, businesses, academic institutions and individuals so they’re better prepared for the potentially big changes to come.

“All of the scenarios we present are possible, but none is certain,“ the paper concludes. „The most likely outcome is a combination, with different scenarios playing out simultaneously in different geographies, industries, age cohorts and socio-economic groups.”

Irving Wladawsky-Berger worked at IBM for 37 years, has been a strategic advisor to Citigroup, HBO and Mastercard and adjunct professor at Imperial College.  He’s currently visiting lecturer and research affiliate at MIT,  and is a regular contributor to CIO Journal.