The Changing Geopolitics of European Emotion

Dominique Moisi

Dominique Moisi is Senior Counselor at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. He is the author of La Géopolitique des Séries ou le triomphe de la peur.

JUN 28, 2017 Project Syndicate

PARIS – A new triangle of geopolitical emotion has emerged in Europe: Great Britain has ceased feeling superior to France, and France has stopped feeling inferior to Germany. The question is whether this sentimental transformation will ultimately reorder the balance of power in Europe, and possibly the world.

Developments currently underway in Britain and France will prove decisive. It remains to be seen how the British repair the damage they are inflicting upon themselves through the Brexit quagmire. And it is still unclear if the French can harness the strong and positive energy of their new president, Emmanuel Macron, to implement badly needed reforms.

But even as those uncertainties play out, both countries are engaging in a kind of zero-sum transfer of emotions that is impossible to ignore. In the past, traveling to London from Paris, one could easily sense the difference between the two cities. London was bursting with dynamism, and proud to assert itself as the world capital of multiculturalism. Paris, although undeniably more beautiful, was in danger of becoming a new Rome, a prisoner of its past glory, at best a place to visit, but not a place to be.

Yellen: Globalization, Technological Change Have Been Harmful to Many

Date: 28-06-2017

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Fed chief also says the U.S. financial system is ‘safer and sounder’ than before the crisis

LONDON—The offshoring of jobs associated with globalization combined with technological change have been devastating for many American communities, while designing programs to help has proved difficult, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Tuesday.

Speaking at the British Academy, Ms. Yellen said the two processes were intertwined, and had led to a loss of middle-income jobs that created a feeling of despair among those affected.

“Both of these things have been quite harmful to a very large share of the population,” she said, referencing a range of problems such as increased death rates among some segments, and rising drug use.

Ms. Yellen’s comments about the downside of some big changes in the economy over recent decades were unusually direct.

“Trade can be good, and it has been good,” she said. “But there are losers, and it’s challenging to design interventions that would help the losers.”

Ms. Yellen also said the U.S. financial system is “safer and sounder” than it was before 2008, although another crisis can’t be ruled out, Ms. Yellen said the Fed is spending more time on detecting threats to financial stability, including in places that aren’t subject to regulation.

China’s Hong Kong at 20

Chris Patten

Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong and a former EU commissioner for external affairs, is Chancellor of the University of Oxford.

JUN 28, 2017  Project Syndicate

LONDON – While I was Governor of Hong Kong, from 1992 until the handover of the city to China in 1997, I kept a diary. Consulting that diary over the last few months, as I write a book partly about my experience there, I have discovered several passages describing China’s “struggle” school of diplomacy – one that endures even today, as we approach the 20th anniversary of Hong Kong’s return to Chinese sovereignty.

In China’s struggle school of diplomacy, no decision could be confirmed without a protracted argument with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials. That argument ended only when it became clear that the Chinese could squeeze no other concessions out of those on the other side of the table. Time, Chinese negotiators seemed (or pretended) to believe, was on their side, so they could always wait out their opponents.

Europe’s Backyard

Date: 28-06-2017
Source: DER SPIEGEL

Tensions Rising in Balkans as Hopes for EU Future Fade

Fourteen years after being told they had a future in the European Union, countries in the Western Balkans are losing hope. Meanwhile, Turkish and Russian influence in the region is on the rise. So too is the nationalist rhetoric of old.

The EU’s Fading Attraction in the Balkans

The man who hopes to become the prime minister of Kosovo has a past, documented under case file IT-04-84 at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague. Forty-eight-year-old Ramush Haradinaj, aka Smajl, was accused of crimes against humanity in 37 cases, including murder and torture.

The allegations are from the 1990s, when he was a field commander for the Kosovo Liberation Army (UÇK) in the war against the Serbs. The court ultimately found Haradinaj not guilty, a product of witnesses declining to testify at the last moment or, in some cases, dying suddenly. The United Nations police force in Kosovo has accused the UÇK veteran of dealing cocaine, while Germany’s foreign intelligence service, the BND, described him in a 2005 analysis as being the head of a group involved in „the entire spectrum of criminal activities.“

ÜBER AUTONOMES DENKEN UND FAHREN

FURCHE-Kolumne 218 Wilfried Stadler 

Während des Versuchs, Eintrittskarten für ein Museum auf elektronischem Weg vorzubestellen, leuchtete mir jüngst am Bildschirm meines Notebooks die überraschende Aufforderung entgegen, durch Ankreuzen des Satzes „I´m not a robot“ mein Menschsein zu bestätigen. Nur kurz war ich verunsichert – dann klickte ich entschlossen meine Zustimmung. Erst nachdem mir das System diese digitale Selbst-Behauptung abgenommen hatte, ließ sich der Zahlungsvorgang abschließen. Ich war erleichtert. Was wäre wohl geschehen, hätte man – oder vielmehr: es – mir nicht geglaubt?
Gedankenspiele rund um eine künstliche Intelligenz, die uns eines Tages überlegen und damit zugleich übermächtig werden könnte, nehmen in geradezu beängstigender Dichte an Ernsthaftigkeit zu. Der „Homo Deus“, über dessen künftige Selbst-Überhöhung Yuval Noah Harari einen spannenden futuristischen Bestseller geschrieben hat, scheint in unaufhaltbarem Über-Mut seine intellektuelle Selbst-Enteignung vorzubereiten.

Can China Replace the West?

Date: 28-06-2017
Source: http://www.nybooks.com by Gideon Rachman

Jessica T. Mathews MAY 11, 2017 ISSUE
Easternization: Asia’s Rise and America’s Decline from Obama to Trump and Beyond

Gideon Rachman’s Easternization, his new survey of a transformed Asia, admirably does what so little writing on foreign affairs attempts. It treats with equal facility economics, geopolitics, security, enough history for needed background, official thinking, and public attitudes. Rachman, chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times, has an eye for the telling statistic and for the memorable detail that makes it stick. He packs an enormous amount of information into a short book and opens windows of understanding for nonexperts onto this immensely important three fifths of humanity. And while not directly concerned with the new American administration, the story he tells shows well why Donald Trump’s foreign policies could end so badly for the United States and for the world.

But Rachman does not, in the end, make a convincing case for the book’s thesis—embodied in its one-word title. The central issue, he writes, is “how the rise in Asian economic power is changing world politics.” His momentous answer is that “the West’s centuries-long domination of world affairs,” stretching back to 1500, “is now coming to a close.” Without doubt, Asia’s economic ascent has been extraordinary, but Westernization—the spread of the West’s influence and values—has rested on much more than its wealth and the military power derived from it. Those other elements—including open governments, readiness to build institutions, and contributions to others’ security and growth—are weak or absent in Asia today. Easternization is neither here nor coming soon.

Buffett kritisiert Obamacare-Umbau als „Hilfe für Reiche“

Er habe vermögende Freunde, die durch die geplante Reform der Krankenversicherung zehn Millionen Dollar und mehr an Abgaben an den Fiskus sparen würden, sagt US-Starinvestor Warren Buffett.

US-Starinvestor Warren Buffett

28.06.2017 um 06:51, diepresse.com

Starinvestor Warren Buffett hat die Pläne der Republikaner zum Umbau des US-Gesundheitssystems als Steuergeschenk für Spitzenverdiener kritisiert. Der Entwurf der Partei von Präsident Donald Trump zur Neuordnung der „Obamacare“-Krankenversicherung könne auch als „Gesetz zur Hilfe von Reichen“ betitelt werden, sagte der Börsen-Guru in einem Interview vom Dienstag dem US-Sender PBS.

Er habe vermögende Freunde, die durch die geplante Reform der Krankenversicherung zehn Millionen Dollar und mehr an Abgaben an den Fiskus sparen würden, so Buffett. Bei ihm selbst würden die Steuern dadurch um 17 Prozent geringer ausfallen, sagte der 86-Jährige.

Macron will die Lizenz zur Reform

Der Präsident will seine umstrittene Arbeitsmarktreform künftig über Verordnungen durchsetzen können. Das Parlament muss dem Gesetz noch zustimmen.

 Im Kampf gegen die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit will Macron Unternehmen mehr Flexibilität und Planungssicherheit geben. –

28.06.2017 um 14:23, diepresse.com

Die französische Regierung hat den Startschuss für ihre umstrittene Arbeitsmarktreform gegeben. Bei einer Kabinettssitzung brachte die Regierung am Mittwoch in Paris ein Gesetz auf den Weg, das Staatschef Emmanuel Macron eine Lockerung des Arbeitsrechts über Verordnungen erlauben soll.

Damit will der sozialliberale Präsident seine Reform schneller umsetzen, als wenn sie den üblichen parlamentarischen Weg ginge. Das Parlament muss dem Gesetz, das Macron den Rückgriff auf Verordnungen erlaubt, aber noch zustimmen. Es wird sich ab dem 24. Juli mit der Vorlage befassen. Eine Zustimmung gilt als sicher: Der Präsident hat in der Nationalversammlung eine breite Mehrheit.

Im Kampf gegen die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit will Macron Unternehmen mehr Flexibilität und Planungssicherheit geben. Unter anderem sollen Betriebsvereinbarungen im Vergleich zu Branchenvereinbarungen mehr Gewicht bekommen. Entschädigungen nach einer unrechtmäßigen Entlassung sollen gedeckelt, verschiedene Arbeitnehmervertretungen fusioniert werden. Gewerkschaften stehen dem Reformvorhaben äußerst kritisch gegenüber.

Who Does Business Represent?

Ricardo Hausmann

Ricardo Hausmann, a former minister of planning of Venezuela and former Chief Economist of the Inter-American Development Bank, is Director of the Center for International Development at Harvard University and a professor of economics at the Harvard Kennedy School.

JUN 28, 2017 Project Syndicate

CAMBRIDGE – On whose behalf do business associations speak? Well, business. But who is “business”?

It’s an increasingly urgent question, because while firms have radically changed how they think about themselves, business associations have yet to catch up. And the resulting lag is making capitalism less legitimate in many countries.

The traditional view of the firm – shared by both Karl Marx and Milton Friedman – is that it is an organization owned by capitalists (shareholders), on whose behalf it is run. It hires workers and buys other inputs to maximize returns for those who put up the money. According to Friedman, the social responsibility of the firm is to increase profits. Any goal that does not directly benefit shareholders is just another distortionary tax.

But what makes all of a firm’s stakeholders behave in a way that maximizes value? In fact, modern corporations struggle to create a sense of a collaborative community of employees, managers, suppliers, lenders, distributors, service providers, customers, and shareholders, all cooperating to create value by better satisfying customer needs and aspirations.

We Need More Europe. Which Europe? Hints from Strategic Games

By Luciano Andreozzi and Roberto Tamborini on June 19, 2017  RGE EconoMonitor

One of the “consensus views” drawn from the hard lessons of the global crisis exploded in 2008 is that in Europe, and in the Monetary Union (EMU) in particular, the crisis was exacerbated and prolonged by some deficiencies in the original design of the EMU as a supranational institution with the overarching purpose of generating and distributing collective benefits from integration and policy coordination (e.g. Baldwin and Giavazzi (eds.) 2015, 2016). The most prominent problems brought to the forefront by the crisis are two. The first is that the system fails to prevent member countries from pursuing policies in the pure national interest notwithstanding social and economic costs due to mutual negative spillovers (what game theorists call “non-cooperative policies”). The second is that no one thinks for the EMU as a whole at the supranational level either (with the exception, by statute, of the ECB); the EMU is just the statistical average of what the single countries are doing. Therefore, another element in this consensus view is that, in order to overcome the flaws emerged during the crisis, institutional reforms are necessary which should ideally be aimed at fostering integration on the grounds of economic policy and governance (see the so-called ‘Five Presidents Report’ (Juncker et al. 2015), and the Commission’s White Paper about the future of the EU, 2016).