Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017
Interview András Szigetvari25. April 2017, 07:00 derstandard.AT
Politische Orientierungslosigkeit in den USA und die Folgen eines Brexits sieht Ewald Nowotny als die Bedrohungen für Europas Wirtschaft
Bei der Tagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds in Washington wurden Finanzminister und Notenbanker am vergangenen Wochenende über die größten Bedrohungen für die Weltwirtschaft unterrichtet. Politische Risiken standen dabei im Vordergrund. Nebenbei versuchte die österreichische Delegation mit Nowotny Klarheit über den Kurs der Trump-Regierung zu bekommen.
STANDARD: Welche Entwicklungen bereiten Ihnen derzeit am meisten Sorgen: der Brexit, die protektionistischen Tendenzen in den USA, der Nationalismus in Europa?
Nowotny: Beunruhigend sind aktuell vor allem die Unsicherheiten, die in Bezug auf künftige Maßnahmen der US-amerikanischen Regierung bestehen. Einer unserer Gesprächspartner in Washington hat uns gesagt, dass Trump und sein Team gar nicht erwartet haben, dass sie gewinnen. Sie haben also Wahlprogramme, sind aber nicht darauf vorbereitet, wie es weitergehen soll, und müssen sich das erst mühsam erarbeiten. Das heißt, die größte Ökonomie der Welt könnte für einige Zeit orientierungslos dahinschlingern. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, ECB, Nowotny, Standard, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 12. April 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Central bank says establishing a shell company in the eurozone wouldn’t be acceptable
London’s Canary Wharf financial district could see some of its residents moving their headquarters to the EU after Brexit.
FRANKFURT—Banks relocating to the eurozone as a result of Brexit will probably have to wait six months to secure a license, and the process could take up to a year, the European Central Bank said.
The comments, from the eurozone’s top banking supervisor, underline the pressure on U.K.-based banks to move quickly ahead of Britain’s expected departure from the European Union by March 2019.
In a document published Tuesday to address banks’ Brexit-related queries, the ECB said it usually takes six months to decide whether to grant a banking license. That period may be shorter if a bank already operates in the eurozone and simply wants to extend its license, the supervisor said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Brexit, ECB, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 29. März 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Italy is the biggest political threat on the horizon for investors
Beppe Grillo leads the 5 Star Movement, which wants Italians to have a national vote on whether to leave the eurozone.
Politics has been a big driver of markets, but investors may be worrying about the wrong politics. Squabbling over health care hurts the chance of a big U.S. tax cut, and the neurotic can find plenty to fear in the French presidential election. Much less attention has been paid to the biggest political threat on the horizon for investors: Italy.
Italian elections are events investors have learned to disregard after 44 governments in 50 years. The next election might be different, thanks to the potential for a nasty three-way feedback loop between populist politics, the European Central Bank and the bond market.
To see how it could go wrong, think about things from the point of view of holders of Italian government bonds. Their ever-present worry is a repeat of 2011, when a standoff between a populist Italian prime minister and the rest of Europe pushed 10-year yields above 7% (they are now at just 2.37%, even after more than doubling since last summer). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: bond yields, ECB, Europe, Italy, Trump, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 28. März 2017
Die Europäischen Zentralbank muss nach Auffassung von Transparency International stärker beaufsichtigt werden.
Die EZB stoße in den Bereich politischer Entscheidungen vor ohne dabei jedoch genauer überprüft zu werden, begründete die Nichtregierungsorganisation Transparency International ihre Forderung in einem am Dienstag veröffentlichten Bericht. Die Zentralbank müsse transparenter werden. Sie solle mehr von ihren Entscheidungen und Stellungnahmen veröffentlichen, Integritätsvorschriften stärken und offener über politische Entscheidungen Auskunft geben. Die EZB verliere in der Öffentlichkeit erheblich an Vertrauen, gleichzeitig habe sie aber mehr Verantwortung. Das belaste die Rechenschaftspflicht der EZB. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: ECB, Presse, Regulieren, Transparency International | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. März 2017
Source: The Economist
Members agree that the single currency needs more integration, But they disagree over how
MANY BRITISH TORY Eurosceptics trace their beliefs back to the 1992 Maastricht treaty which agreed to create a single currency. To them, Maastricht represented a Franco-German stitch-up. The French president, François Mitterrand, accepted German unification, and in exchange the German chancellor, Helmut Kohl, agreed to give up the D-mark for the euro.
In fact money was crucial from the very start of the European project. In the 1950s Jacques Rueff, a leading French economist, declared that “Europe will be made through a currency, or it will not be made.” After the break-up of the Bretton Woods international monetary system in 1971, European countries made many attempts, usually in vain, to ensure currency stability through such arrangements as the “snake”, the European monetary system and the exchange-rate mechanism.
A move to a single European currency may have seemed a logical extension of such efforts, yet it was far more momentous. However fixed an exchange-rate arrangement pretends to be, it can be altered at any time. Indeed, that is what happened repeatedly in the 1980s and 1990s. The point of the single currency was to put an end to such disruption. By launching the euro in 1999 and replacing national notes and coins in 2002, the EU was not just underpinning the single European market, its most successful project. It was also taking a giant leap towards deeper political and economic integration.
The design of the euro suffered from two big defects that still haunt the single currency Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: ECB, Economist, ESM, Euro | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 23. März 2017
BRUSSELS – Despite recently experiencing an overall economic uptick, the eurozone remains fragile and uninsured against the risk of another crisis. And a major reason is that it is still vulnerable to asymmetric boom-and-bust cycles.
Simply put, while all eurozone members can benefit during good times, some suffer far more than others during busts. This means that whenever the next crisis hits, safety-conscious investors will flee from fiscally weak countries toward fiscally strong ones that have a proven track record of generating economic growth.
When the economic calculus reverses, we can expect to experience a sense of déjà vu. Each country’s gain will entail another country’s loss, which will undermine inter-eurozone cooperation and fuel political tensions. The effects will likely reverberate through each country’s domestic politics, strengthening forces that favor disintegration. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banking Union, Crisis, ECB, ESM, Euro, Marzinotto, OMT, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. März 2017
Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.
MAR 16, 2017 Project Syndicate
BRUSSELS – What does the eurozone’s future hold? It depends where you look. Some economic indicators suggest that things are looking up for the common currency’s survival; for example, employment has returned to its pre-crisis peak, and per capita GDP growth exceeded that of the United States last year. At the same time, political risks seem to be increasing, despite the improvements in Europe’s economy.
The evidence of an increasing risk of a eurozone breakup comes from three different indicators. But closer examination of those indicators suggests that, while the longer-term risks remain substantial, the short-term risks are rather low. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: ECB, Euro, Europe, France, Gros, Italy, Project Syndicate, Target | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. März 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Even a slight change in message could rock markets and upset the eurozone’s recovery
The headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt.
FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank is entering uncharted territory as it prepares to signal a possible retreat from its massive monetary stimulus without triggering a violent market reaction.
Bond markets reeled last week on reports that ECB officials had discussed how they might wind down their easy-money policies, which include a giant bond-purchase program and subzero interest rates.
Top officials have since closed ranks around a uniformly dovish message. But as the bloc’s economy strengthens and inflation picks up, investors are watching closely for any sign of a U-turn from Frankfurt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: ECB, Euro, Stimulus, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 9. März 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Mixed messages reflect the difficulties of crafting a single monetary policy for 19 nations
FRANKFURT—Europe’s economy is accelerating, sparking optimism during a year of contentious politics but also rekindling a war of words between the eurozone’s top monetary officials.
In one camp is European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who wants to avoid dramatic moves with fraught elections looming in the Netherlands, France and Germany. In the other is German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, an ardent critic of the ECB’s easy-money policies, who is concerned the dosage of stimulus is too strong for a healing economy.
The two sides closed ranks last year when the bloc flirted with deflation and the ECB came under attack from senior German politicians. But divisions are re-emerging as the bloc’s €10 trillion economy strengthens.
In a rare turn, the eurozone is currently the fastest-growing major advanced economy, according to financial-data firm IHS Markit, and its inflation rate has rebounded to 2%, slightly above the ECB’s target rate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: ECB, Euro, Europe, Interest, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. März 2017
Marcel Fratzscher, a former senior manager at the European Central Bank, is President of the think tank DIW Berlin and Professor of Macroeconomics and Finance at Humboldt University, Berlin.
MAR 7, 2017 Project Syndicate
BERLIN – Now that Germany’s current-account surplus has reached a record €270 billion ($285 billion), or close to 8.7% of GDP, the ongoing debate about its economic model has intensified. Eurozone politicians and Donald Trump’s administration in the United States are each blaming the other for the economic imbalance; and all are blaming the euro.
Trump’s administration, for its part, has attacked Germany for exporting too much, and accused it of manipulating the euro. In fact, Germany’s trade surplus has little to do with the euro; which has become a convenient scapegoat – a stand-in for other policy mistakes.
Many Germans view the latest wave of criticism as a sign that others are merely envious of their country’s success, and they have angrily refuted arguments that Germany has tried to gain an unfair competitive advantage. Germany, they point out, does not engage in price dumping or direct export promotion, and its leaders do not target the euro.
On the contrary, prior to adopting the common currency, Germany had for decades pursued a strong-Deutsche Mark policy, because it wanted to encourage domestic exporters to maintain competitiveness through innovation, rather than reliance on the exchange rate. This was the central feature of Germany’s economic model after World War II, and the main reason its long Wirtschaftswunder (“economic miracle”) could be sustained. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: current account balance, ECB, Fed, Fratzscher, Germany, Project Syndicate | 1 Comment »