Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘IMF’

Ten Years After Lehman—Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead

Posted by hkarner - 6. September 2018

By Christine Lagarde

September 5, 2018, IMF Blog

The global financial crisis remains one of the defining events of our time. It will forever mark the generation that lived through it. The fallout from the crisis—the heavy economic costs borne by ordinary people combined with the anger at seeing banks bailed out and bankers enjoying impunity, at a time when real wages continued to stagnate—is among the key factors in explaining the backlash against globalization, particularly in advanced economies, and the erosion of trust in government and other institutions.

In this sense, the crisis cast a long shadow, which shows no sign of going away any time soon. Yet the tenth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers—what I once referred to as a “holy cow” moment—gives us an opportunity to evaluate the response to the crisis over the past decade.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers provoked a broader run on the financial system, leading to systemic crisis. All told, twenty-four countries fell victim to banking crises, and economic activity has still not returned to trend in most of them. One study suggests that the average American will lose $70,000 in lifetime income because of the crisis. Governments continue to feel the pinch too. Public debt in advanced economies rose by more than 30 percentage points of GDP—partly due to economic weakness, partly due to efforts to stimulate the economy, and partly due to bailing out failing banks.

We are now facing new, post-crisis, fault lines. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Euro Area Inflation: Why Low For So Long?

Posted by hkarner - 29. August 2018

August 28, 2018

European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany: Convergence of core inflation towards the ECB’s medium-term objective is likely to be gradual 

The euro area economy is in its fifth year of recovery, unemployment is close to its pre-crisis level and the output gaps of most countries have closed. Yet, core inflation continues to be low, notwithstanding temporarily high headline inflation due to higher energy prices.

The puzzle

It may look as if the traditional Phillips curve relationship between core inflation and unemployment has broken down over the past five years.

During 2012 to 2014, the euro area experienced a “missing disinflation” episode, where inflation stayed at relatively high levels despite high and increasing unemployment. From 2014 to 2017, there was a “missing inflation” period, with little inflation pressure despite considerable reductions in labor market slack. Some have attributed this to a broken Phillips curve, to difficulties in correctly quantifying slack, or low global inflation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Hyperinflationäres Gold bei 175 Millionen Dollar

Posted by hkarner - 13. August 2018

Dank an R.K.
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Gold offenbart wirtschaftliches Missmanagement und die Währungsabwertung, die in den letzten 100 Jahren in den meisten Ländern der Welt um sich griffen. Wenn die Schuldenblasen platzen, kommt globale Hyperinflation.

 

Von Egon von Greyerz, Matterhorn Asset Management AG

Über der Weltwirtschaft hängt das Damoklesschwert, und nur ein einziges Rosshaar hält es. Eigentlich könnte man einer so offensichtlichen Gefahr dadurch entgehen, dass man das Haar mit einer Goldkette austauscht oder das Schwert ganz einfach entfernt. Doch die Elite und die Zentralbanker hatten andere Pläne. Das Haar wurde nicht durch eine solide Metallkette ersetzt, stattdessen hängt das Schwert heute an einem hauchdünnen Faden, der jederzeit reißen kann.

Vor einem Jahrzehnt stand das globale Finanzsystem kurz vor seinem Zusammenbruch. Auf der ganzen Welt pumpten Zentralbanken, allen voran die Federal Reserve, rund 25 Billionen Dollar an Krediten und Garantien ins System. Banken wie Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch und die Bank of America bekamen Billionen (siehe Tabelle unten). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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5 Things You Need to Know About the IMF and the Sustainable Development Goals

Posted by hkarner - 27. Juli 2018

By Tony Annett and Chris Lane, IMF Blog

July 26, 2018

The global economic juggernaut is bumping into the boundaries of environmental safety 

Although we live in an age of unparalleled wealth and technological achievement, billions of people are still suffering from poverty, hunger, exclusion, and conflict. And the global economic juggernaut is bumping into the boundaries of environmental safety, including by changing the climate in a perilous manner through the burning of fossil fuels.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—endorsed by 193 countries in 2015 as a blueprint for policy through 2030—represent a holistic response to this complex set of interrelated challenges. The IMF is engaged with the SDGs when they affect economic stability and sustainable and inclusive growth. Here are five things to know about how the IMF helps countries reach these goals, in the context of the five SDG pillars of people, prosperity, planet, peace, and partnership.

Billions of people still suffer from poverty, hunger, exclusion, and conflict. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How To Deal With Failed Banks

Posted by hkarner - 4. Juli 2018

By Deniz Igan, IMF Blog

July 3, 2018

Reforms since the global financial crisis have made bail-ins a credible option and bail-outs less likely 

During the global financial crisis, policymakers faced a steep trade-off in handling bank failures. Using public funds to rescue failing banks (bail-outs) could weaken market discipline and lead to excessive risk taking—the moral hazard effect.

Letting private investors absorb the losses (bail-ins) could destabilize the financial sector and the economy as a whole—the spillover effect. In most cases, banks were bailed out.

This created public resentment and prompted policymakers to introduce measures to shift the burden of bank resolution away from taxpayers to private investors.

Resolving a failing bank should rely on bail-ins: private stakeholders should bear the losses. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Estimating Cyber Risk for the Financial Sector

Posted by hkarner - 23. Juni 2018

June 22, 2018

Average annual losses to financial institutions from cyber-attacks could reach a few hundred billion dollars a year 

Cyber risk has emerged as a significant threat to the financial system. An IMF staff modeling exercise estimates that average annual losses to financial institutions from cyber-attacks could reach a few hundred billion dollars a year, eroding bank profits and potentially threatening financial stability.

Recent cases show that the threat is real. Successful attacks have already resulted in data breaches in which thieves gained access to confidential information, and fraud, such as the theft of $500 million from the Coincheck cryptocurrency exchange. And there is the threat that a targeted institution could be left unable to operate.

Not surprisingly, surveys consistently show that risk managers and other executives at financial institutions worry most about cyber-attacks, as in the graphic below. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Perils of Corporate Concentration

Posted by hkarner - 21. Juni 2018

Date: 20-06-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By William A. Galston

U.S. companies are too big and have too much market power. Workers are suffering.

Amid the din of daily political combat, it’s easy to overlook long-term trends reshaping the country. The stock market has quadrupled since 2009’s Great Recession low, but the growth of real wages has failed to accelerate, even as unemployment has fallen from 10% to under 4%. An International Monetary Fund paper published earlier this month suggests these developments are linked to a single cause—increasing corporate concentration throughout the U.S. economy.

A standard definition of market power, say the authors of the IMF paper, is the ability to maintain prices above marginal cost—the level that would prevail under perfect competition. They find that between 1980 and 2016, markups by U.S. companies have increased by an average of 42%. Although markups have risen in all major industry sectors, some have experienced increases far above the average, led by 419% for biotechnology. Not surprisingly, there is a strong relationship between markups and profitability.

There is also evidence that markups are related to market concentration, which has surged in recent decades. Since the mid-1990s the standard measure of concentration used in antitrust analysis, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, has risen by 50%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Anatomy of Global Debt

Posted by hkarner - 17. Juni 2018

Howard Davies, the first chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority (1997-2003), is Chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland. He was Director of the London School of Economics (2003-11) and served as Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry.

The IMF’s new Global Debt Database is an impressive piece of work. And the numbers suggest that the so-called debt intensity of growth has increased: we seem to need higher levels of debt to support a given rate of economic than we did before.

LONDON – At the end of May, the International Monetary Fund launched its new Global Debt Database. For the first time, IMF statisticians have compiled a comprehensive set of calculations of both public and private debt, country by country, constructing a time series stretching back to the end of World War II. It is an impressive piece of work.

The headline figure is striking. Global debt has hit a new high of 225% of world GDP, exceeding the previous record of 213% in 2009. So, as the IMF points out, there has been no deleveraging at all at the global level since the 2007-2008 financial crisis. In some countries, the composition of debt changed, as public debt replaced private debt in the post-crisis recession, but that shift has now mostly stopped.

Are these large figures alarming? In aggregate terms, perhaps not. At a time when economic growth is robust almost everywhere, financial markets are relaxed about debt sustainability. Long-term interest rates remain remarkably low. But the numbers do tend to support the hypothesis that the so-called debt intensity of growth has increased: we seem to need higher levels of debt to support a given rate of economic growth than we did before. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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