Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘IMF’

A Weakening Global Expansion Amid Growing Risks

Posted by hkarner - 22. Januar 2019

While global growth in 2018 remained close to postcrisis highs, the global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected. This update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects global growth at 3.5 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.2 and 0.1 percentage point below last October’s projections.

The downward revisions are modest; however, we believe the risks to more significant downward corrections are rising. While financial markets in advanced economies appeared to be decoupled from trade tensions for much of 2018, the two have become intertwined more recently, tightening financial conditions and escalating the risks to global growth.

The global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected.

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Building Defenses Against the Next Economic Downturn

Posted by hkarner - 18. Januar 2019

By David Lipton

The global economy faces a number of complex challenges from technological change and globalization, and the lingering effects of the 2008-9 financial crisis. At the same time, we are witnessing lower levels of trust in the core institutions that have helped to deliver tremendous growth and prosperity over the past 40 years. These developments threaten to fragment the international order that has governed the global economy.

History suggests such a downturn is somewhere over the horizon.

The symptoms of this fragmentation include rising trade tensions, discord with and within some multilateral institutions, and a dilution of efforts to address the profound cross-border challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, cyber-crime, and refugee flows. The question inevitably arises: if this is occurring at a time of solid global growth and relative financial stability, what might the next economic downturn produce? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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New Data on Global Debt

Posted by hkarner - 3. Januar 2019

By Samba Mbaye and Marialuz Moreno Badia; imf Blog

January 2, 2019
Until recently, we had a partial view of global debt. Our new update to the IMF’s Global Debt Database, first made public in May 2018, now fills even more of the gaps. We have compiled data on public and private debt for 190 countries, dating back to 1950, which now includes the latest numbers for 2017.

We make these data free and publicly available for all to use because we believe transparency can help create better public policy.

The long view

In the past, we had detailed information about some bigger economies, such as the United States and Japan, but existing databases either covered a narrow measure of debt—for example, bank credit—for a broad sample of countries, or a comprehensive one for a few countries and years. By including both the government and private sides of borrowing for the entire world, the Global Debt Database offers an unprecedented picture of global debt in the post-World War II era. From all these data we have gathered a few new insights on debt:

  • Global debt has reached an all-time high of $184 trillion in nominal terms, the equivalent of 225 percent of GDP in 2017. On average, the world’s debt now exceeds $86,000 in per capita terms, which is more than 2½ times the average income per-capita.
  • The most indebted economies in the world are also the richer ones. You can explore this more in the interactive chart below. The top three borrowers in the world—the United States, China, and Japan—account for more than half of global debt, exceeding their share of global output.
  • The private sector’s debt has tripled since 1950. This makes it the driving force behind global debt. Another change since the global financial crisis has been the rise in private debt in emerging markets, led by China, overtaking advanced economies. At the other end of the spectrum, private debt has remained very low in low-income developing countries.
  • Global public debt, on the other hand, has experienced a reversal of sorts. After a steady decline up to the mid-1970s, public debt has gone up since, with advanced economies at the helm and, of late, followed by emerging and low-income developing countries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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5 Charts That Explain the Global Economy in 2018

Posted by hkarner - 21. Dezember 2018

By Oya Celasun, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Blog

December 20, 2018

The global economy started 2018 on a positive note but the momentum lost steam 

  1. The global economy started 2018 on an upbeat note, buoyed by a pickup in global manufacturing and trade through 2017. As investors’ confidence in the global economic outlook lost steam, so did the upswing. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Five Actions to Strengthen the Euro Area Banking Union

Posted by hkarner - 15. Dezember 2018

By Atilla Arda, Daniel Hardy, and Maike B. Luedersen, IMF Blog

December 14, 2018

Progress has been made, but more needs to be done to strengthen the euro area’s banking union 

Dealing with problem banks in a prompt, efficient, and even-handed manner is essential for the European banking union. Much progress has been made, but more needs to be done to strengthen both institutions and practices. We outline the recommendations in this area proposed as part of the IMF’s recent assessment of the euro area financial sector.

Having in place a sound framework and the operational capacity to handle problem banks is critical to “leveling the playing field” in the banking union and to reducing risks. A truly common system is needed to ensure that banks compete on their own merits and are not advantaged or disadvantaged by the jurisdiction where they incorporate. Good supervision—as we’ve seen under the Single Supervisory Mechanism—may reduce the probability of a bank failing abruptly. Yet from time to time banks do fail, so the crisis preparedness and management system needs to be ready to address what might otherwise be costly episodes for governments and economies alike. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Währungsfonds: Staaten schlecht für Krise gewappnet

Posted by hkarner - 12. Dezember 2018

11. Dezember 2018, 13:40 derstandard.at

Das größte Risiko für die Weltwirtschaft sei der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China

London – Regierungen und Notenbanken sind laut dem Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) für eine Krise womöglich nicht ausreichend gewappnet. IWF-Vizechef David Lipton warnte am Dienstag auf einer Bankenkonferenz in London, es zögen Sturmwolken über der Weltwirtschaft auf. Das größte Risiko sei der Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China. Der zwischen beiden Seiten vereinbarte Burgfriede müsse dauerhaft gemacht werden, ansonsten könne die Weltwirtschaft in einen Abschwung geraten.

Der Fonds habe während der konjunkturellen Schönwetterperiode immer wieder gemahnt, das Dach wetterfest zu machen: „Doch ich fürchte: Die Arbeit an der Krisenprävention ist unvollständig.“ Auch die Währungshüter könnten neuen Belastungen ausgesetzt werden. Letztlich sei es möglich, dass sie wieder unorthodoxe Maßnahmen als Antwort auf neue Herausforderungen entwickeln müssten: „Doch weil deren Wirksamkeit unsicher ist, sollten wir über die Möglichkeiten der Geldpolitik beunruhigt sein“, so Lipton. Während die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve (Fed) auf ihre heuer vierte Zinserhöhung zusteuert, will die EZB einen Schritt weg von der Krisenpolitik unternehmen und ihre bisher rund 2,6 Billionen Euro schweren Anleihenkäufe zum Jahresende auslaufen lassen. (APA, Reuters, 11.12.2018) – derstandard.at/2000093680416/Waehrungsfonds-warnt-vor-Konjunktur-Sturmwolken

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A Planet at Risk Requires Multilateral Action

Posted by hkarner - 4. Dezember 2018

Signe Krogstrup and Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Blog

 December 3, 2018

A wolf in the snow: the planet isn’t crying wolf as man’s economic activities reach a scale where the global climate is at risk (photo: cc)

The COP-21 Paris Agreement limiting greenhouse gas emissions was a major achievement on the road to meeting the threat of climate change. But as the evidence becomes increasingly unambiguous that human activity is destabilizing the Earth’s climate and biosphere, policymakers will need to do more. The inherently shared nature of the threat underlines the need for closer and more comprehensive international cooperation to preserve the habitat in which human life has thrived.

William Nordhaus, to be honored next week with the Nobel Prize for his work on environmental economics, wrote in 1977:

„In contemplating the future course of economic growth in the West, scientists are divided between one group crying “wolf” and another which denies that species’ existence. One persistent concern has been that man’s economic activities would reach a scale where the global climate would be significantly affected. Unlike many of the wolf cries, this one, in my opinion, should be taken very seriously.“

A little over four decades later, the wolf is at the door.

Looking back, 2018 has seen more intense heat waves, wildfires, and storms. Seventeen of the 18 warmest years on record have occurred since 2000. 2018 is on track to join these ranks. Meanwhile, greenhouse gas emissions keep rising. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Unternehmensschulden gefährden das Finanzsystem

Posted by egloetzl - 3. Dezember 2018

Neue Solidarität 48/2018

Der Zustrom von Geldern aus dem „umgedrehten Carrytrade“ hat vor allem die Aktienkurse und die Unternehmensschulden aufgebläht. Ein „Kamingespräch“ mit dem EIR-Wirtschaftsexperten Paul Gallagher.

Die drohende Gefahr eines Finanzkrachs war am 15. November das Thema des wöchentlichen „Kamingesprächs“ (Fireside Chat), einer Telefonkonferenz mit Aktivisten des LaRouche-Aktionskomitees aus den gesamten USA. Zu Gast war der EIR-Wirtschaftsredakteur Paul Gallagher, der insbesondere die gefährliche Entwicklung der Unternehmensschulden analysierte und warnte, der „Trump-Aufschwung“, von dem in Amerika häufig die Rede ist, könnte schon sehr bald zuende sein, „denn wir sind mit der Gefahr einer Explosion des Finanzsystems konfrontiert“. In diesem Zusammenhang sei das Programm, für das die amerikanische LaRouche-Bewegung eintritt, jetzt ganz entscheidend. Wir geben im folgenden eine Zusammenfassung von Gallaghers Argumentation.

Die Beschäftigung in der Industrie und allgemein im Produktionssektor sei zuletzt zwar recht deutlich gestiegen, „womit der Trend mindestens der letzten anderthalb Jahrzehnte – eigentlich ein Trend, der bis in die 1980er Jahre zurückreicht – in den letzten beiden Jahren wenigstens zeitweilig umgekehrt wurde“. Das habe Präsident Trump bisher eine gewisse Unterstützung gesichert. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A New Social Contract

Posted by hkarner - 1. Dezember 2018

November 30, 2018

As the world seeks to address the rise of populism and nationalism, it is becoming clear that economic insecurity lies at the heart of much of the discontent. In the wake of the global financial crisis, voters in wealthy countries began to lose faith in the state’s ability to protect them. The profound changes sweeping labor markets, caused by the rise of technology and continued globalization, have only deepened this anxiety. At the same time, people in poor countries still have not attained even basic standards of living, with many risking their lives in search of a more prosperous future.

This has prompted many to rethink social protection. In this issue, F&D shines a spotlight on this work. We do so in partnership with the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), which last year launched a research project to redefine the welfare state. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Destroy Cryptocurrencies

Posted by hkarner - 21. November 2018

 

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Leading economic policymakers are now considering whether central banks should issue their own digital currencies, to be made available to everyone, rather than just to licensed commercial banks. The idea deserves serious consideration, as it would replace an inherently crisis-prone banking system and close the door on crypto-scammers.

NEW YORK – The world’s central bankers have begun to discuss the idea of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and now even the International Monetary Fund and its managing director, Christine Lagarde, are talking openly about the pros and cons of the idea.

This conversation is past due. Cash is being used less and less, and has nearly disappeared in countries such as Sweden and China. At the same time, digital payment systems – PayPal, Venmo, and others in the West; Alipay and WeChat in China; M-Pesa in Kenya; Paytm in India – offer attractive alternatives to services once provided by traditional commercial banks. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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