Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘IMF’

What We Have Seen and Learned 20 Years After the Asian Financial Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 14. Juli 2017

By Mitsuhiro Furusawa

July 13, 2017 IMF Blog

Asia today is the fastest-growing region in the world, and the largest contributor to global growth. It has six members of the Group of Twenty advanced and emerging economies, and its economic and social achievements are well recognized.

But 20 years ago, July 1997 marked the beginning of the Asian Financial Crisis, when a combination of economic, financial and corporate problems triggered a sharp loss of confidence and capital outflows from the region’s emerging market economies. The crisis began in Thailand on July 2, when the baht’s peg to the dollar was dropped, and eventually spread to Korea, Indonesia and other countries.

The 20th anniversary of the Asian Crisis is a good moment to ask whether the region is better prepared today to address another major economic shock. I would offer a “Yes, by all means.” Of course, important vulnerabilities remain, especially the elevated levels of corporate and household debts in some countries. But the overall picture is one of greater resilience. Let me explain why. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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IWF schenkt Trump ein: Stärkung statt Belastung der Unterschicht nötig

Posted by hkarner - 27. Juni 2017

27. Juni 2017, 14:00 derstandard.at

In seinem Länderbericht kritisiert der Währungsfonds Ungleichheit und Armut – hier müsse die Regierung ansetzen

Auf den ersten Blick läuft die US-Wirtschaft rund. Seit Jahren verzeichnen die Vereinigten Staaten höheres Wachstum als beispielsweise Europa und Japan und annähernd Vollbeschäftigung. Doch auf den zweiten Blick stellt sich die Lage anders dar, wie der Internationale Währungsfonds in einem am Dienstag erschienenen Länderbericht konstatiert. Der Fonds senkte am Dienstag seine US-Wachstumsprognose für das laufende Jahr um 0,2 Punkte auf 2,1 Prozent und für kommendes Jahr um 0,4 Punkte auf ebenfalls 2,1 Prozent. Der Wohlstand ist immer ungleicher verteilt. Seit 2000 hat sich das Realeinkommen für mehr als die Hälfte der Amerikaner verschlechtert. Auch die niedrige Arbeitslosigkeit täuscht. Tatsächlich haben viele US-Bürger resigniert und sind aus dem Arbeitsmarkt ausgeschieden. Nur noch 63 der Bevölkerung sind beschäftigt oder suchen einen Job. 2007 lag diese Quote noch bei 66 Prozent. Und: Mit 13,5 Prozent ist die Armutsrate eine der höchsten in entwickelten Volkswirtschaften.

CO2-Steuer gefordert

Während US-Präsident Donald Trump Steuererleichterungen für Reiche und Konzerne plant, macht der Währungsfonds anders gelagerte Vorschläge. Vor allem untere und mittlere Einkommen sollten entlastet werden. Auch bei der Gegenfinanzierung setzt der Fonds andere Prioritäten als das Weiße Haus: Eine bundesweite Umsatzsteuer von fünf Prozent, eine CO2-Abgabe und höhere Steuern auf Gas sollten gut zwei Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts erlösen. Zudem wünscht sich der Währungsfonds weitere Schritte zur Stärkung der unteren Einkommensschichten. Ein einheitlicher und höherer Mindestlohn zählt ebenso zu den Vorschlägen wie leichterer Zugang zum Bildungssystem und bessere soziale Absicherung. All das würde nicht nur die Ungleichheit mindern, sondern auch die Produktivität erhöhen, ist der IWF überzeugt. Stattdessen plane die US-Regierung in ihrem Haushaltsplan übermäßige Kürzungen bei unteren und mittleren Einkommensgruppen. (as, 27.6.2017) – derstandard.at/2000059874476/IWF-schenkt-Trump-ein-Staerkung-statt-Belastung-der-Unterschicht

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Fintech: Capturing the Benefits, Avoiding the Risks

Posted by hkarner - 21. Juni 2017

By Christine Lagarde, IMF Blog

June 20, 2017

A signboard at a store in Guangzhou, China, lists various forms of mobile payment (photo: Imagine China/Newscom)

When you send an email, it takes one click of the mouse to deliver a message next door or across the planet. Gone are the days of special airmail stationery and colorful stamps to send letters abroad.

International payments are different. Destination still matters. You might use cash to pay for a cup of tea at a local shop, but not to order tea leaves from distant Sri Lanka. Depending on the carrier, the tea leaves might arrive before the seller can access the payment.

All of this may soon change. In a few years, cross-border payments and transactions could become as simple as sending an email.

Financial technology, or Fintech, is already touching consumers and businesses everywhere, from a local merchant seeking a loan, to the family planning for retirement, to the foreign worker sending remittances home. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Trade with China Boosts Productivity

Posted by hkarner - 26. Mai 2017

By JaeBin Ahn and Romain Duval, IMF Blog

May 24, 2017

Container port, China. Trade with China has helped improve living standards in advanced economies through higher productivity 

Advocates of protectionist policies in advanced economies blame job losses on growing trade with China, and influential researchers have provided some empirical backing for their claims. Yet the benefits of trade with China are often overlooked. Among them is faster growth in productivity—the key driver of improved living standards. This suggests that rather than erecting new barriers to trade, advanced economies should continue to open up—while doing much more to help those who have lost their jobs to overseas competition.

Our new research shows that for advanced economies:

  • Productivity growth has been faster in countries and industries that have been more exposed to China’s opening to trade, all else equal; and
  • As much as 12 percent of the increase in productivity over the 12 years from 1995 through 2007 can be attributed to China’s integration into world trade. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Chart of the Week: Central and Eastern Europe Close the Gap

Posted by hkarner - 23. Mai 2017

By IMFBlog

May 22, 2017

Most of the countries of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe will see their economies humming away at a strong growth rate in 2017. A measure of their success at fully utilizing their economic machine is the output gap—the difference between what the economy is currently producing, and what it can produce when it is at full capacity.

Our Chart of the Week from a recently published report on the Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European region shows how close these economies come to performing at full potential.

Overall, growth has increased in the region, and indicators, such as the availability of workers, point to further pick up everywhere but Turkey, which accounts for 21 percent of GDP in the region.

Some economies, notably Turkey and the largest economy in the region, Russia, which together account for 62 percent of GDP in the region, appear to operate somewhat below capacity, because of insufficient investment and demand, respectively. In turn, most of the Baltic countries, Central Eastern Europe, and Southeastern Europe are around full capacity, or have even surpassed as unemployment rates have declined to pre-crisis lows. Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Ukraine are still far from going full throttle.

Surpassing the full capacity point usually brings with it rising wages as the available workforce dwindles. Inflation also tends to rise because consumers’ demand for products and services increases. Yet, prices have not gone up significantly in the region despite the widespread closure of the output gap, growing wages, and a less idle workforce everywhere but in Turkey and the Commonwealth of Independent States. That is partly because of still low imported inflation from the euro area.

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Getting Fiscal Stimulus and Central Bank Independence In Synch

Posted by hkarner - 12. Mai 2017

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Chart of the Week: Conflict’s Legacy for Growth

Posted by hkarner - 9. Mai 2017

By IMFBlog

May 8, 2017

Conflict has been on the rise since the early 2000s given the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.

Conflict leads not only to immeasurable human costs, but also to substantial economic losses with consequences that can persist for years. The tragic rise in conflict has weighed on global GDP growth in recent years, given the increasing number of countries experiencing strife, the severe effect on economic activity, and the considerable size of some of the affected economies.

The IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook (Box 1.1) takes a closer look through the lens of conflict’s impact on economic growth and migration. 

Countries currently involved in conflict accounted for 1 to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2010. The World Economic Outlook measured conflict based on severity—if there are at least 50, 100, or 150 conflict-related deaths per million people in the country and for three different periods: 2002 to 2005, 2006 to 2009, and 2010 to 2015. The share of global GDP affected by conflict is based on the first year in each period, before the negative effects of conflict on GDP have fully materialized. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A False Spring at the Spring Meetings?

Posted by hkarner - 3. Mai 2017

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New Life for the SDR?

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

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A Practical Agenda for Revolutionary Times

Posted by hkarner - 22. April 2017

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