Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘IMF’

The Next Phase of Finance

Posted by hkarner - 14. März 2018

Bertrand Badré

Bertrand Badré, a former managing director of the World Bank, is CEO and Founder of Blue like an Orange Sustainable Capital and author of Can Finance Save the World? 

Today’s strengthening economic recovery has not overcome the understandable but devastating loss of trust in the financial system that followed the crisis a decade ago. Restoring trust will require reasserting control over the financial sector, to ensure that it is serving the economy, not the other way around.

WASHINGTON, DC – The decade since the global financial crisis has been tumultuous, to say the least. True, no great war has erupted, and we have more or less avoided the mistakes of the Great Depression, which led in the 1930s to greater protectionism, bank failures, severe austerity, and a deflationary environment. But renewed market tensions indicate that these risks have not been eradicated so much as papered over.

In a sense, the story of the 2008 financial crisis begins when the global order was created from the ashes of World War II. Initiatives like the Bretton Woods institutions (the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund), the Marshall Plan, and the European Economic Community supported the reconstruction of significant portions of the world economy. Despite the Cold War (or perhaps because of it), they also re-started the globalization that WWII had brought to a halt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Take This Quiz on Fintech!

Posted by hkarner - 12. März 2018

03/12/2018 07:59 AM EDT
By IMFBlog March 12, 2018 .
From artificial intelligence to cryptography, rapid advances in digital technology are transforming the financial services landscape, creating opportunities and challenges for consumers, service providers, and regulators alike. This new wave of technology is often called “fintech” and the industry is thriving.

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Climbing Out of Debt

Posted by hkarner - 2. März 2018

A new study offers more evidence that cutting spending is less harmful to growth than raising taxes

Alberto Alesina, Carlo A. Favero, and Francesco Giavazzi, IMF Blog 1 Mar 2018

Almost a decade after the onset of the global financial crisis, national debt in advanced economies remains near its highest level since World War II, averaging 104 percent of GDP. In Japan, the ratio is 240 percent and in Greece almost 185 percent. In Italy and Portugal, debt exceeds 120 percent of GDP. Without measures either to cut spending or increase revenue, the situation will only get worse. As central banks abandon the extraordinary monetary measures they adopted to battle the crisis, interest rates will inevitably rise from historic lows. That means interest payments will eat up a growing share of government spending, leaving less money to deliver public services or take steps to ensure long-term economic growth, such as investing in infrastructure and education. Servicing debt will become a major burden.

What is the best way to reduce debt to sustainable levels? That question has taken on renewed importance since the global financial crisis of 2008, when government spending to stimulate growth and help the unemployed boosted budget deficits to postwar records. Some economists argue that cutting spending is the best medicine for restoring fiscal health. Others insist, on the contrary, that spending cuts are self-defeating, because they hurt economic growth. They prescribe even more government spending to reinvigorate a flagging economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Money Sent Home by Migrants Buffers Income Shocks

Posted by hkarner - 1. März 2018

By Kimberly Beaton, Luis Catão and Zsoka Koczan, IMF Blog

February 28, 2018

In 2015, migrants sent home $441 billion – almost three times the total value of official development assistance 

Worldwide, 250 million people, or 3 percent of the global population, live outside their country of birth. Many of these migrants maintain strong ties with their home countries, sending part of their incomes to families back home. In 2015, migrants sent home $441 billion – almost three times the total value of official development assistance.

About 45 percent of these remittances flow from advanced economies to emerging market and developing economies. These funds have the potential to be an important mechanism for sharing income risks on a global scale. That is, if a family living in a developing country loses part of its income, higher remittances from relatives abroad could help compensate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Euro Area Needs a Fiscal Union

Posted by hkarner - 22. Februar 2018

By Helge Berger, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Maurice Obstfeld, IMF

February 22, 2018

Without more tangible elements of a fiscal union, the euro area will remain fundamentally vulnerable to shocks. 

The euro area is experiencing a robust recovery, but the architecture supporting Europe’s currency union remains incomplete and leaves the region vulnerable to future financial crises.

While substantial progress has been made to address some architectural issues—conditional lending facilities and key elements of a banking union—we argue in our recent paper that the euro area needs to build elements of a common fiscal policy, including more fiscal risk sharing, to preserve financial and economic integration and stability. Without some degree of fiscal union, the region will continue to face existential risks that policymakers should not ignore. While this is not a new topic, the current favorable economic climate might be the moment to advance the discussion—and the chance to strengthen the euro area.

If Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) were like any other large currency area, such as the United States, member states would tackle economic or financial shocks together. They would have empowered a central government or jointly run institutions to deal with stressed financial entities, secure bank deposits, and provide fiscal relief to member states in a particularly deep recession. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Verantwortungslose EZB

Posted by hkarner - 20. Februar 2018

Jürgen Stark

Jürgen Stark is a former Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and former Deputy Governor of the Deutsche Bundesbank.

FRANKFURT – Der jüngste Flash-Crash des Dow Jones Aktien-Index um fast 1.600 Punkte zeigt, wie stark die Finanzmärkte und Wirtschafts-Akteure von der Politik der Zentralbanken abhängig geworden sind. Durch die niedrigen Zinsen und die mengenmäßige Lockerung der Geldpolitik wurden Anreize gesetzt, immer höhere Risiken einzugehen, die nicht adäquat bepreist sind. Je länger diese Politiken fortgesetzt werden, umso größer wird die Bedrohung für die globale Finanzstabilität.

Tatsache ist, dass die ultra-lockere Geldpolitik schon seit langer Zeit nicht mehr angemessen ist. Die Weltwirtschaft, insbesondere die fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften, erfahren eine zunehmend stärkere wirtschaftliche Erholung. Nach dem aktuellen Wirtschaftlichen Ausblick des Internationalen Währungsfonds wird sich das wirtschaftliche Wachstum in den nächsten Quartalen insbesondere in den USA und dem Euro-Raum fortsetzen.

Dennoch befürchten internationale Institutionen, einschließlich des IWF, abrupte Marktkorrekturen, die sich normalerweise vollziehen, wenn sich die Inflations- oder Zinserwartungen ändern. Sie plädieren daher für einen sehr langsamen Ausstieg aus der derzeitigen Geldpolitik. So verzögern die Zentralbanken die Normalisierung der Geldpolitik immer mehr mit der Folge, dass die Vermögenspreise weiter gestiegen und dramatische Marktverzerrungen entstanden sind, die Korrekturen unvermeidlich machen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Buzz of Populism and Its Pull on the Economy

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2018

February 9, 2018

If you believe the economy can explain the rise of populism, political scientist Cristóbal Rovira Kaltwasser says it’s a bit more complicated than that.

“If you think about populist radical right parties in Western Europe, the party that gets the most votes is in Switzerland. And the economy in Switzerland is running perfectly!”

Populism has become a bit of a buzz word of late, and it was the subject of a seminar at the 2018 American Economic Association’s Annual Meeting. The IMF’s Antonio Spilimbergo organized the panel, which included Kaltwasser and economic stalwarts Dani Rodrik and Raghuram Rajan.

In this podcast, Kaltwasser delves into populism, where populist politicians pin the people against the elite and pressure mainstream political parties to adapt.

Kaltwasser says economists often argue that the rise of populism is related to the so-called modernization losers—those who have been losing due to the globalization process, and conclude that those people are going to vote for populist right parties. But he points out that being a modernization loser is not an objective category. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Countries in the IMF Financial Spotlight in 2018

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2018

By IMF Blog

January 31, 2018

Financial sector assessments are showing that countries and financial systems are adapting better methods to monitor financial vulnerabilities 

The IMF in 2018 will complete ten assessments of countries’ financial systems, to identify risks and propose policies to strengthen their financial stability. Three of this year’s reviews will be for countries with Systemically Important Financial Systems : Belgium, Brazil and Poland. In addition, IMF experts will assess the euro area’s financial stability. Other financial stability assessments will cover Armenia, Jamaica, Namibia, Peru, Romania, and Tanzania.

Some highlights for countries under the Financial Sector Assessment Program review in 2018 include: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Current Economic Sweet Spot Is Not the “New Normal”

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2018

January 22, 2017

Global growth continues to pick up and is broad based. But no matter how tempting it is to sit back and enjoy the sunshine, policy can and should move to strengthen the recovery (photo: Mumbai, India, Ingram Publishing/Newscom).

As the year 2018 begins, the world economy is gathering speed. The new World Economic Outlook Update revises our forecast for the world economy’s growth in both 2018 and 2019 to 3.9 percent. For both years, that is 0.2 percentage points higher than last October’s forecast, and 0.2 percentage points higher than our current estimate of last year’s global growth.

This is good news. But political leaders and policymakers must stay mindful that the present economic momentum reflects a confluence of factors that is unlikely to last for long. The global financial crisis may seem firmly behind us, but without prompt action to address structural growth impediments, enhance the inclusiveness of growth, and build policy buffers and resilience, the next downturn will come sooner and be harder to fight.

Every government should be asking itself three questions today. First, how can we raise economic efficiency and output levels over the longer term? Second, how can we support resilience and inclusiveness while reducing the likelihood that the current upswing ends in an abrupt slowdown or even a new crisis? Third, how can we be sure to have the policy tools we will need to counter the next downturn? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Weak Productivity: The Role of Financial Factors and Policies

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2018

By Romain Duval, Giuseppe Nicoletti, and Fabrizio Zampolli, IMF Blog

January 8, 2018

weak productivity has been a problem even before the global financial crisis 

Almost ten years after the onset of the global financial crisis productivity growth remains anaemic in advanced economies despite very easy monetary conditions, casting doubts on the sustainability of the cyclical recovery. The productivity slowdown started well before the crisis, which then amplified the problem. To what extent can this slowdown be ascribed to policies and financial factors, including loose monetary policy prior to 2008, corporate and bank balance sheet vulnerabilities, and the exceptional monetary and financial policy responses to the crisis?

Together with policymakers and top scholars in the fields of finance and productivity, the Bank for International Settlements, the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, supported by the Global Forum on Productivity, will seek to address this question with a conference on Weak Productivity: The Role of Financial Factors and Policies held at OECD Headquarters in Paris, France on January 10 and 11. As the organizers of this conference, our goal is to stimulate and inform the policy debate, as well as open promising avenues for further research. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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