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Posts Tagged ‘IMF’

How Trade with China Boosts Productivity

Posted by hkarner - 26. Mai 2017

By JaeBin Ahn and Romain Duval, IMF Blog

May 24, 2017

Container port, China. Trade with China has helped improve living standards in advanced economies through higher productivity 

Advocates of protectionist policies in advanced economies blame job losses on growing trade with China, and influential researchers have provided some empirical backing for their claims. Yet the benefits of trade with China are often overlooked. Among them is faster growth in productivity—the key driver of improved living standards. This suggests that rather than erecting new barriers to trade, advanced economies should continue to open up—while doing much more to help those who have lost their jobs to overseas competition.

Our new research shows that for advanced economies:

  • Productivity growth has been faster in countries and industries that have been more exposed to China’s opening to trade, all else equal; and
  • As much as 12 percent of the increase in productivity over the 12 years from 1995 through 2007 can be attributed to China’s integration into world trade. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Chart of the Week: Central and Eastern Europe Close the Gap

Posted by hkarner - 23. Mai 2017

By IMFBlog

May 22, 2017

Most of the countries of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe will see their economies humming away at a strong growth rate in 2017. A measure of their success at fully utilizing their economic machine is the output gap—the difference between what the economy is currently producing, and what it can produce when it is at full capacity.

Our Chart of the Week from a recently published report on the Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European region shows how close these economies come to performing at full potential.

Overall, growth has increased in the region, and indicators, such as the availability of workers, point to further pick up everywhere but Turkey, which accounts for 21 percent of GDP in the region.

Some economies, notably Turkey and the largest economy in the region, Russia, which together account for 62 percent of GDP in the region, appear to operate somewhat below capacity, because of insufficient investment and demand, respectively. In turn, most of the Baltic countries, Central Eastern Europe, and Southeastern Europe are around full capacity, or have even surpassed as unemployment rates have declined to pre-crisis lows. Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Ukraine are still far from going full throttle.

Surpassing the full capacity point usually brings with it rising wages as the available workforce dwindles. Inflation also tends to rise because consumers’ demand for products and services increases. Yet, prices have not gone up significantly in the region despite the widespread closure of the output gap, growing wages, and a less idle workforce everywhere but in Turkey and the Commonwealth of Independent States. That is partly because of still low imported inflation from the euro area.

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Getting Fiscal Stimulus and Central Bank Independence In Synch

Posted by hkarner - 12. Mai 2017

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Chart of the Week: Conflict’s Legacy for Growth

Posted by hkarner - 9. Mai 2017

By IMFBlog

May 8, 2017

Conflict has been on the rise since the early 2000s given the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria.

Conflict leads not only to immeasurable human costs, but also to substantial economic losses with consequences that can persist for years. The tragic rise in conflict has weighed on global GDP growth in recent years, given the increasing number of countries experiencing strife, the severe effect on economic activity, and the considerable size of some of the affected economies.

The IMF’s most recent World Economic Outlook (Box 1.1) takes a closer look through the lens of conflict’s impact on economic growth and migration. 

Countries currently involved in conflict accounted for 1 to 2.5 percent of GDP in 2010. The World Economic Outlook measured conflict based on severity—if there are at least 50, 100, or 150 conflict-related deaths per million people in the country and for three different periods: 2002 to 2005, 2006 to 2009, and 2010 to 2015. The share of global GDP affected by conflict is based on the first year in each period, before the negative effects of conflict on GDP have fully materialized. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A False Spring at the Spring Meetings?

Posted by hkarner - 3. Mai 2017

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New Life for the SDR?

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

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A Practical Agenda for Revolutionary Times

Posted by hkarner - 22. April 2017

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Five Keys to a Smart Fiscal Policy

Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2017

By Vitor Gaspar and Luc Eyraud, IMF Blog, April 19

We live in a world of dramatic economic change. Rapid technological innovation has fundamentally reshaped the way we live and work. International trade and finance, migration, and worldwide communications have made countries more interconnected than ever, exposing workers to greater competition from abroad. While these changes have brought tremendous benefits, they have also led to a growing perception of uncertainty and insecurity, particularly in advanced economies.

Today’s conditions require new, more innovative solutions, which the IMF calls smart fiscal policies. By smart policies we mean policies that facilitate change, harness its growth potential, and protect people who are hurt by it. At the same time, excessive borrowing and record levels of public debt have limited the financial resources available to government. So, fiscal policy must do more with less. Fortunately, researchers and policy makers are realizing that the fiscal tool kit is broader and the tools more powerful than they thought. Five guiding principles sketch the contours of these smart fiscal policies, which are described in chapter one of the IMF’s April 2017 Fiscal Monitor.

1.Fiscal policy should be countercyclical Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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IWF entdeckt Schattenseiten der Globalisierung

Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2017

András Szigetvari aus Washington, 20. April 2017, 07:15 derstandard.at

Der Streit um Globalisierung, Freihandel und Ungleichheit dominiert Wahlkämpfe in Europa und den USA. Nun springt der Währungsfonds auf das Thema auf

Washington – Von ihrem kleinen Büro an der 19th Street in Washington, D.C., hat Mitali Das in den vergangenen Monaten die Revolution vorbereitet. Die Ökonomin arbeitet für den Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF). Sie sammelte Daten aus dutzenden Ländern. Ein Team unter ihrer Leitung führte die Kalkulationen durch, jedes Ergebnis wurde penibel nachgeprüft. Fehler durften nicht passieren, dafür war die Materie zu heikel. In einer soeben publizierten Studie ist Mitali Das der Frage nachgegangen, wie sich globaler Handel und technischer Fortschritt auf Einkommen und Einkommensverteilung ausgewirkt haben.

Wo der IWF in dieser Frage ideologisch steht, ist klar: Jahrzehntelang haben die Experten des Fonds gepredigt, dass Liberalisierung und Marktöffnung der beste Weg zu mehr Wohlstand für alle sind. Ungleichheit und Verteilungsfragen spielten in diesen Überlegungen keine Rolle. Die Arbeiten von Das, einer indischstämmigen ehemaligen Professorin an der Columbia-Universität, haben das verändert.

Lohnquote

Die Ökonomin und ihre Kollegen haben sich angesehen, wie sich der Anteil der Arbeitseinkommen im Verhältnis zur Wirtschaftsleistung (BIP) entwickelt hat. Unter die Lupe genommen wurde die Entwicklung dieser Lohnquote in 50 Ländern seit 1991. Das Ergebnis: Weltweit erhalten Arbeiter und Angestellte heute in der Mehrzahl der Länder einen geringeren Teil vom erwirtschafteten Wohlstand als zu Beginn der 1990er-Jahre. Auf Kapitalerträge dagegen entfällt ein größerer Teil des Kuchens. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Global Economy Gaining Momentum—For Now

Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2017

By Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Direct, 18/4

Momentum in the global economy has been building since the middle of last year, allowing us to reaffirm our earlier forecasts of higher global growth this year and next. We project the world economy to grow at a pace of 3.5 percent in 2017, up from 3.1 percent last year, and 3.6 percent in 2018. Acceleration will be broad based across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies, building on gains we have seen in both manufacturing and trade.

Our new projection for 2017 in the April World Economic Outlook is marginally higher than what we expected in our last update. This improvement comes primarily from good economic news for Europe and Asia, as well as our continuing expectation for higher growth this year in the United States.

Despite these signs of strength, many other countries will continue to struggle this year with growth rates significantly below past readings. Commodity prices have firmed since early 2016, but at low levels, and many commodity exporters remain challenged – notably in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. At the same time, a combination of adverse weather conditions and civil unrest threaten several low-income countries with mass starvation. In Sub-Saharan Africa, income growth could fall slightly short of population growth, but not by nearly as much as last year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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