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Posts Tagged ‘IMF’

Chart of the Week: Financial Reform Report Card

Posted by hkarner - 30. Oktober 2018

October 29, 2018

Countries have improved banking sector regulation considerably in the past decade, but areas of weakness remain (Steve Gottlieb/Newscom)

The many 10th anniversary retrospectives of the global financial crisis mostly agree: the financial system is safer today than it was when US investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. In some respects, the IMF’s recent Global Financial Stability Report supports that conclusion. Capital, liquidity, and banking sector leverage have improved.

But policymakers shouldn’t rest on their laurels. The Chart of the Week offers a more granular look at the progress (or lack of it) on banking sector regulation and supervision since the crisis on a number of dimensions. It finds that while there has been improvement in many areas, significant trouble spots remain. (The chart focuses on banking, but similar issues arise in our assessment of securities and insurance regulation and supervision.)

Policymakers shouldn’t rest on their laurels.

Across the financial sector, two of the most problematic areas are corporate governance and regulatory oversight. Before the crisis, weak corporate governance gave rise to risky exposures, often driven by flawed incentives that rewarded quick profits. What is more, many supervisors lacked the independence, accountability, resources, and legal protections they needed to properly oversee financial institutions. Those weaknesses have yet to be fixed.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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DIE TÜCKEN STAATLICHER BILANZEN

Posted by hkarner - 24. Oktober 2018

FURCHE-Kolumne 252 Wilfried Stadler

Seit 2011 steht Christine Lagarde an der Spitze des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF). Unter ihrer souveränen Führung leistete diese nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg gegründete, globale Zentralbank entscheidende Beiträge zur Überwindung der Eurokrise. Aus den Reihen der für den Währungsfonds tätigen Ökonomen gehen immer wieder Wirtschafts-Nobelpreisträger hervor, wie zuletzt vor wenigen Wochen der US-Amerikaner Paul Romer und vor ihm schon 2001 Joseph Stiglitz.

Vor kurzem traten nun die die IWF-Experten mit einem neuen Thema an die Öffentlichkeit, von dem sie vielleicht insgeheim hoffen, wieder eine Grundlage für spätere Auszeichnungen zu schaffen. Es geht um den ambitionierten Versuch, Staatshaushalte nicht nur nach der Höhe des Schuldenstandes zu bewerten und danach, ob diese Schulden aller Voraussicht nach auch bedient werden können. Das höchst ehrgeizige Ziel ist, darüber hinaus eine Art Vermögensbilanz des öffentlichen Sektors zu erarbeiten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Whar Governments Own and Owe

Posted by hkarner - 24. Oktober 2018

IMF, 23/10/2018

Your government has often lost track of its finances too.  While it keeps close tabs on debt, it is less clear on how much it owns: the assets.

Things like roads, bridges, and sewer pipes are assets for a country, as well as the money governments have in the bank, their financial investments, and payments owed to them by individuals and businesses.

Natural resource reserves in the ground are also part of assets, something that is particularly important for natural resource-rich countries like Nigeria and Norway. But assets also include state-owned enterprises such as public banks and, in many countries, utilities such as public electricity and water companies.

Our Chart of the Week from the new Fiscal Monitor analyzes public wealth using 2016 data from 31 countries—from The Gambia, to the United States, as well as Japan, Turkey, Brazil, the United Kingdom and China, to name a few. Their assets amount to $101 trillion, or 219 percent of GDP.

 

Who owns what

Let’s look at the United Kingdom. The research shows how its balance sheet expanded massively during the global financial crisis, when the government decided to rescue several large private sector banks. This rescue substantially contributed to the increase in the UK’s public sector net debt, which is the total amount of debt minus the government’s cash in hand.

Fiscal Monitor includes them on the balance sheet and shows that a US recession would erode net worth—the value of assets minus liabilities— by some 26 percent of GDP under stress. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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IWF warnt vor neuer Finanzkrise

Posted by hkarner - 4. Oktober 2018

Dank an H.G.

3. Oktober 2018, 18:51 derstandard.at

Der Währungsfonds sieht neue Herausforderungen für Regulierer und Aufseher. Er warnt vor Regulierungsunlust und Regellockerungen

Washington/Berlin – Der Internationale Währungsfonds warnt vor neuen Gefahren für die globale Finanzstabilität. In den zehn Jahren seit dem Höhepunkt der großen Finanzkrise seien zwar erhebliche Fortschritte gelungen, um das weltweite Finanzsystem weniger anfällig zu machen, erklärte der IWF am Mittwoch. Es bleibe aber viel zu tun, nicht zuletzt wegen neuer Risiken etwa in Verbindung mit den neuartigen Fintech-Firmen, die im Zuge der Verlagerung der Geldströme ins Internet an Bedeutung gewinnen, und der Cybersicherheit. Auch rein wirtschaftlich und finanzpolitisch seien die Folgen der Finanzkrise vielerorts noch spürbar.

Staatsverschuldungen gestiegen

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Lasting Effects: The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 4. Oktober 2018

By Wenjie Chen, Mico Mrkaic, and Malhar Nabar, IMF Blog

October 3, 2018

In the year following the 2008 financial crisis, economic activity declined in half of all countries in the world. Our analysis in Chapter 2 of the October World Economic Outlook shows that in many countries output is still well below levels that would have prevailed had output followed its precrisis trend.

Moreover, there are also signs that the crisis may have had lasting effects on potential growth through its impact on fertility rates and migration, as well as on income inequality.

Despite these effects, specific policies did have an effect on how individual countries fared after the crisis. Those in better fiscal shape, with better regulated and supervised banks, and flexible exchange rates generally suffered less damage.

There are signs that the crisis may have had lasting effects on potential growth.

Crisis costs Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Harvard-Professorin wird neue IWF-Chefökonomin

Posted by hkarner - 2. Oktober 2018

Die 46 Jahre alte Gita Gopinath folgt Maurice Obstfeld als Chefökonomin des Internationalen Währungsfonds.

Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) hat die Wirtschaftswissenschaftlerin Gita Gopinath von der Havard Universität zur neuen Chefökonomin ernannt. Die 46-Jährige übernimmt damit die Nachfolge von Maurice Obstfeld, der Ende des Jahres in den Ruhestand geht, wie der Fonds am Montag mitteilte.

„Gita gehört zu den herausragenden Ökonomen der Welt, mit einwandfreien akademischen Qualifikationen, einer nachgewiesenen Erfolgsbilanz intellektueller Führung und umfangreicher internationaler Erfahrung“, sagte IWF-Chefin Christine Lagarde. Gopinath wurde in Indien geboren und wuchs dort auf. Zudem hat sie die US-Staatsbürgerschaft.

Sie promovierte 2001 an der Princeton University in Wirtschaftswissenschaften und wurde 2010 zur Harvard-Professorin ernannt. Gopinath gilt als Expertin für internationale Finanz- und Handelspolitik, Schwellenländer, Finanzkrisen und Geldpolitik.

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IWF-Chefin prophezeit Wetterumschwung in der Weltwirtschaft

Posted by hkarner - 2. Oktober 2018

Die Weltwirtschaft werde nicht mehr auf dem noch im Juli prognostizierten Niveau von 3,9 Prozent wachsen, sagt IWF-Chef Christine Lagarde.

IWF-Chef Christine Lagarde

Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) sieht einen Wetterwechsel in der Weltwirtschaft bevorstehen. Viele Länder hätten Probleme, ihr Versprechen von größerem Wohlstand einzulösen, sagte IWF-Chefin Christine Lagarde am Montag in Washington.

Einige der Risiken, die der IWF in seinen zurückliegenden Wirtschaftsprognosen skizziert habe, seien im Begriff einzutreten. „Es schüttet noch nicht, aber es nieselt schon ein bisschen“, sagte Lagarde, die in einer früheren Rede die Politiker in aller Welt aufgefordert hatte, sie sollten „das Dach reparieren, solange die Sonne scheint.“

Trump-Politik nicht zielführend

Die Weltwirtschaft werde nicht mehr ganz auf dem noch im Juli prognostizierten Niveau von 3,9 Prozent wachsen, sagte Lagarde. Es bedürfe jetzt klarer politischer Entscheidungen. „Wir müssen steuern, nicht uns treiben lassen“, betonte Lagarde. Sie untermauerte ihre Position, dass die von US-Präsident Donald Trump eingeschlagene Abschottungspolitik nicht zielführend sei. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Managing the Global Factor Better

Posted by hkarner - 28. September 2018

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

The IMF is the body best suited to serve as a trusted adviser and an effective conductor of the global policy orchestra. If it is to fulfill that role, however, it must strengthen its credibility as a responsive and effective leader. That means listening to its members, then guiding them toward more harmonious policies.

SEATTLE – Imagine a world in which the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund were more client-driven. Ahead of the gathering – this year’s will take place in Indonesia in October – the IMF would solicit from its 189 member countries three key policy issues on which to focus, not only in official discussions, but also in the numerous seminars that are held in parallel. The result would be an agenda that responded better to the continued anxiety that a growing number of policymakers – and populations – are feeling.

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Ten Years After Lehman—Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead

Posted by hkarner - 6. September 2018

By Christine Lagarde

September 5, 2018, IMF Blog

The global financial crisis remains one of the defining events of our time. It will forever mark the generation that lived through it. The fallout from the crisis—the heavy economic costs borne by ordinary people combined with the anger at seeing banks bailed out and bankers enjoying impunity, at a time when real wages continued to stagnate—is among the key factors in explaining the backlash against globalization, particularly in advanced economies, and the erosion of trust in government and other institutions.

In this sense, the crisis cast a long shadow, which shows no sign of going away any time soon. Yet the tenth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers—what I once referred to as a “holy cow” moment—gives us an opportunity to evaluate the response to the crisis over the past decade.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers provoked a broader run on the financial system, leading to systemic crisis. All told, twenty-four countries fell victim to banking crises, and economic activity has still not returned to trend in most of them. One study suggests that the average American will lose $70,000 in lifetime income because of the crisis. Governments continue to feel the pinch too. Public debt in advanced economies rose by more than 30 percentage points of GDP—partly due to economic weakness, partly due to efforts to stimulate the economy, and partly due to bailing out failing banks.

We are now facing new, post-crisis, fault lines. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Euro Area Inflation: Why Low For So Long?

Posted by hkarner - 29. August 2018

August 28, 2018

European Central Bank, Frankfurt, Germany: Convergence of core inflation towards the ECB’s medium-term objective is likely to be gradual 

The euro area economy is in its fifth year of recovery, unemployment is close to its pre-crisis level and the output gaps of most countries have closed. Yet, core inflation continues to be low, notwithstanding temporarily high headline inflation due to higher energy prices.

The puzzle

It may look as if the traditional Phillips curve relationship between core inflation and unemployment has broken down over the past five years.

During 2012 to 2014, the euro area experienced a “missing disinflation” episode, where inflation stayed at relatively high levels despite high and increasing unemployment. From 2014 to 2017, there was a “missing inflation” period, with little inflation pressure despite considerable reductions in labor market slack. Some have attributed this to a broken Phillips curve, to difficulties in correctly quantifying slack, or low global inflation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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