Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘IMF’

Fintech, Fiber-optics, and Financial Inclusion

Posted by hkarner - 23. August 2019

Peoples’ connection to new technology is built on the backbone of electrical and fiber-optic cables running beneath our feet—and under oceans.

In 2010, most economies that were not connected to the modern, cabled internet could be found in the Pacific. However, this is no longer the case, and by 2020 the region will be almost completely connected.

Governments could harness technology to improve tax collection, government transfers, trade financing, and land registries.

Our chart of the week shows the technological transformation taking place in the Pacific island countries, where the completion of submarine fiber-optic cables will facilitate technology-enabled financial inclusion. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Taming the Currency Hype

Posted by hkarner - 22. August 2019

By Gustavo Adler, Luis Cubeddu, and Gita Gopinath

Escalating trade tensions are taking a toll on the global economy and are partly responsible for the recent downward revisions to our growth forecasts for 2019-20.

Facing sluggish growth and below-target inflation, many advanced and emerging market economies have appropriately eased monetary policy, yet this has prompted concerns over so-called beggar-thy-neighbor policies and fears of a currency war. In this blog post, we discuss the implications of recent policy actions and proposals and offer alternative ways to address concerns over trade imbalances that are much more supportive of global growth.

Higher bilateral tariffs are unlikely to reduce aggregate trade imbalances.

Exchange rates can’t do it all

Monetary easing can help stimulate domestic demand, which in turn benefits other countries by increasing demand for their goods. The concern, however, is that monetary easing also weakens a country’s exchange rate, making exports more competitive and reducing demand for other countries’ imports as they become more expensive—a phenomenon known as expenditure switching. With conventional monetary space limited for some advanced economies, this currency channel of monetary easing has received considerable attention. But one should not put too much stock in the view that easing monetary policy can weaken a country’s currency enough to bring a lasting improvement in its trade balance through expenditure switching. Monetary policy alone is unlikely to induce the large and persistent devaluations that are needed to bring that result. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Fuel for Thought: Ditch the Subsidies

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2019

Pensions, education, healthcare, better infrastructure, technology, and climate change: fiscal policymakers have their work cut out for them on many fronts.  Whether you live in a rapidly aging advanced economy,  or a low-income or emerging market economy with a young, booming population, all these issues matter for you.

As the Fiscal Monitor in April 2019 shows, government policies on taxes and spending have to adapt and should shift to growth-enhancing investment.  This means, for example, more money to build classrooms, hospitals and roads, while cutting wasteful spending, such as inefficient energy subsidies.

Removing fossil fuel subsidies, which typically benefit the rich more than the poor, could gain up to 4 percent of global GDP.

Our chart of the week shows that removing fossil fuel subsidies, which typically benefit the rich more than the poor, could gain up to 4 percent of global GDP in additional resources over the medium term to invest in people, growth, and help protect the most vulnerable. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Reform Opportunity for the IMF

Posted by hkarner - 25. Juli 2019

José Antonio Ocampo

José Antonio Ocampo is a board member of Banco de la República, Colombia’s central bank, a professor at Columbia University, and Chair of the UN’s Committee for Development Policy. He was Minister of Finance of Colombia and United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. He is the author of Resetting the International Monetary (Non)System, and co-author (with Luis Bértola) of The Economic Development of Latin America since Independence.

The 75th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement and the departure of Christine Lagarde from the helm of the International Monetary Fund represent a golden opportunity to put the institution on a path toward a more effective and inclusive future. What should her successor’s priorities be?

NEW YORK – This month marks the 75th anniversary of the signing of the Bretton Woods agreement, which established the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. For the IMF, it also marks the start of the process of selecting a new managing director to succeed Christine Lagarde, who has resigned following her to be European Central Bank president. There is no better moment to reconsider the IMF’s global role.

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The choice of the IMF’s next boss could be a coronation

Posted by hkarner - 14. Juli 2019

Date: 13-07-2019
Source: The Economist

That will not prevent a fight over the fund’s future

For the purposes of decision-making, the imf’s 189 member countries are divided into 24 constituencies of peculiar shapes and sizes. Ghana, for example, belongs to the same group as Afghanistan. Ecuador sits with East Timor. But in choosing the next boss after Christine Lagarde moves to the European Central Bank in October, the most decisive constituency may be a different group entirely: the “New Hanseatic League”. This includes eight small, northern members of the European Union (eu) with bad weather and good credit ratings. They lost out in the fight for big eu jobs earlier this month. In compensation they may have a large say in Europe’s pick to lead the fund.

That could be good news for Mark Carney, the charismatic and credentialled boss of the Bank of England. As well as Canadian and British citizenship, he holds a passport from Ireland, one of the new Hanseatics. If Ireland champions his cause in the league, and the league backs him within the union, he would be hard to resist within the fund. By convention the imf is led by whichever European candidate the Americans can live with. And the Americans are unlikely to object to him, especially after the Europeans dutifully supported Washington’s choice to run the World Bank earlier this year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Five Facts on Fintech

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juni 2019

By Tobias Adrian and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu

From artificial intelligence to mobile applications, technology helps to increase your access to secure and efficient financial products and services.

Since fintech offers the chance to boost economic growth and expand financial inclusion in all countries, the IMF and World Bank surveyed central banks, finance ministries, and other relevant agencies in 189 countries on a range of topics and received 96 responses.

A new paper details the results of the survey alongside findings from other regional studies, and also identifies areas for international cooperation—including roles for the IMF and World Bank—and in which further work is needed by governments, international organizations, and standard-setting bodies.

Foremost in all countries’ minds is cybersecurity.

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Mapping the World’s Financial Weak Spots

Posted by hkarner - 21. Juni 2019

By IMFBlog

Where will the next financial crisis come from? The short answer is: We don’t know. We can, however, look for vulnerabilities in the system that, if left untreated, can develop into problems.

What do we mean by a vulnerability? It is an area of weakness that can amplify and spread an unexpected economic shock, increasing the level of risk to the financial system. Imagine the impact of an earthquake on a house built on sand, as opposed to bedrock. In the financial world, cracks in the bedrock can arise from high levels of debt and mismatches of institutions’ risk factors such as currencies or the maturities of their exposures.

Government debt in the euro area remains one of the most serious vulnerabilities.

One such weak spot is the debt level in US corporations and the risks investors in their securities take. Lending to heavily indebted companies with weak credit ratings is on the rise and may be a widening crack in the system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Making the Euro Area More Resilient Before the Next Recession Hits

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juni 2019

By Shekhar Aiyar, John Bluedorn, and Romain Duval

Growth in the euro area rebounded earlier this year, but it remains fragile, while risks have increased. Now is a good time for euro area economies to strengthen their ability to weather any future economic difficulties.

A new IMF staff paper looks at the resilience of euro area countries and finds that they have had more frequent and severe recessions than other advanced economies over the past 20 years. An even greater cause for concern is that differences between member countries’ growth and unemployment rates after euro area-wide downturns have widened. This widening was most stark following the 2008 global financial crisis. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How to stop governments borrowing behind their people’s backs

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juni 2019

Date: 13-06-2019
Source: The Economist

Principles on debt transparency endorsed at a G20 summit may help

In 2016 the government of Mozambique confessed to secret debts of $1.4bn, or 11% of gdp, mostly as loan guarantees for state-backed companies. Growth faltered, the currency slumped and foreign donors pulled back. The results have been “devastating”, says Denise Namburete, a civil-society activist, describing health centres that have gone two years without medicines. American prosecutors are pursuing eight people involved in the scandal, including three foreign bankers and a former finance minister, on charges of money-laundering and fraud.

The Mozambique case may be unusual—or not. Even the imf is scratching its head about how much governments truly owe. In some places the mystery is loans from China and other emerging lenders. In others it is advance payments from oil traders, liabilities from public-private partnerships or hidden loans from commercial banks. The Institute of International Finance (iif), a group of banks and financial institutions, has responded to mounting concern by drafting principles on debt transparency. Finance ministers of g20 countries endorsed them at a summit in Fukuoka, in Japan, on June 8th-9th. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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