Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘IMF’

Time for a Great Reset

Posted by hkarner - 4. Juni 2020

Date: 03‑06‑2020

Source: Project Syndicate by Klaus Schwab

Klaus Schwab is Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum. 

Tragedy need not be the only legacy of the COVID‑19 crisis. On the contrary, the pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world to create a healthier, more equitable, and more prosperous future.

GENEVA – COVID‑19 lockdowns may be gradually easing, but anxiety about the world’s social and economic prospects is only intensifying. There is good reason to worry: a sharp economic downturn has already begun, and we could be facing the worst depression since the 1930s. But, while this outcome is likely, it is not unavoidable.

To achieve a better outcome, the world must act jointly and swiftly to revamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions. Every country, from the United States to China, must participate, and every industry, from oil and gas to tech, must be transformed. In short, we need a “Great Reset” of capitalism. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Tracking Trade During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Posted by hkarner - 15. Mai 2020

By Diego Cerdeiro, Andras Komaromi, Yang Liu, and Mamoon Saeed

With the current fast-changing developments, policy makers need to know what is happening to the economy in real time, but they often must settle for data telling them what happened many weeks ago. And international trade, which links countries through a complex web of supply chains, is an area where timely information is especially valuable from a global perspective.

Most trade takes place by sea, and—for navigational safety purposes—virtually all cargo ships report their position, speed, and other information many times a day. A new IMF methodology using these data can help better inform us how international trade is affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Building on machine-learning techniques, we can provide better answers to simple questions such as: How big is the drop in trade activity? Should it be attributed mostly to exports or to imports?

A new approach Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Posted by hkarner - 21. April 2020

By Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Blog

I have been saying for a while that this is a ‘crisis like no other.’  It is:

  • More complex, with interlinked shocks to our health and our economies that have brought our way of life to an-almost complete stop;
  • More uncertain, as we are learning only gradually how to treat the novel virus, make containment most effective, and restart our economies; and
  • Truly global. Pandemics don’t respect borders, neither do the economic shocks they cause.

The outlook is dire. We expect global economic activity to decline on a scale we have not seen since the Great Depression.

This year 170 countries will see income per capita go down – only months ago we were projecting 160 economies to register positive per capita income growth.

Actions taken Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Joe Stiglitz and the IMF have warmed to each other

Posted by hkarner - 14. April 2020

Date: 09‑04‑2020

Source: The Economist

The fund seems to have won over its most fearsome critic

Few jobs are as daunting as minister of the economy of Argentina. But Martín Guzmán, who was given the post in December, has two things going for him. He is a brilliant student of unsustainable debt, which Argentina has in abundance, including $44bn owed to the imf and almost $100bn of foreign‑currency debt owed to private lenders. And he is a protégé of Joe Stiglitz, a Nobel‑prizewinning economist at Columbia University who once served as chief economist of the World Bank.

That close affiliation presumably helped endear him to Argentina’s powerful vice‑president, Cristina Fernández, who flouts economic orthodoxy but is fond of citing Mr Stiglitz. And the celebrated economist’s warm endorsement also gave Mr Guzmán credibility in his dealings with the imf—or so the government must have hoped when it appointed him.

But the neat logic of his appointment surely suffers from an obvious flaw. Mr Stiglitz is admired as an economic theorist, but is also renowned as a bitter critic of the imf. His book, “Globalisation and its Discontents”, published after the emerging‑market crises from 1997 to 2001, castigates the fund for imposing unfettered capital flows, fiscal austerity and tight money on vulnerable countries. In a notorious passage, he speculated that Stan Fischer, a revered economist who was the fund’s second‑in‑command from 1994 to 2001, won a lucrative job at Citigroup as a reward for serving American financial interests at the imf. In retaliation Ken Rogoff, then the fund’s chief economist, implied that Mr Stiglitz had wandered off into the “gamma quadrant”—a nerdy way of asking him what planet he was on. “It was”, Mr Stiglitz says now, “a very tense moment.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Maintaining Banking System Safety amid the COVID-19 Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 31. März 2020

By Tobias Adrian and Aditya Narain

Today we face economic upheaval potentially more severe than we witnessed during the global financial crisis. The coronavirus pandemic is a different kind of shock. Never before have modern economies shut down at the drop of a hat. From one week to the next, many workers lost their jobs and paychecks. Restaurants, hotels, and airplanes all emptied. And consumers and businesses now face steep losses in income—and potentially widespread bankruptcies.

Pressure on the banking system is growing and higher defaults on debt are imminent. And many now expect a shock to the financial sector similar in magnitude to the 2008 crisis.

Like the health experts, bank supervisors are responding to a fast-moving and extraordinary situation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Österreichs Häusermarkt überhitzt: IWF sieht Anzeichen für Blase

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2020

Dank an H.G.

Um zehn bis 15 Prozent sind die Häuserpreise österreichweit zu hoch, sagt der Internationale Währungsfonds, in Wien sind es sogar 20 Prozent

Die gute Nachricht vorweg: Die österreichischen Banken haben ihre Lehren aus der internationalen Finanzkrise gezogen. Die Institute halten mehr Eigenkapital, könnten also im Notfall einen plötzlichen Einbruch in der Wirtschaft besser verkraften. Strengere Regeln der staatlichen Aufsicht haben ebenfalls dazu beigetragen, dass mögliche Gefahren, die vom Bankensektor ausgehen, heute geringer sind also vor zehn oder 15 Jahren.

So dürfen Kreditinstitute an Haushalte im Wesentlichen keine Fremdwährungskredite mehr vergeben. Die hochriskanten Franken- und Yen-Kredite, die noch in den Büchern der heimischen Institute stehen, werden weniger. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Finding Solid Footing for the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 20. Februar 2020

As the Group of Twenty industrialized and emerging market economies (G-20) finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Riyadh this week, they face an uncertain economic landscape.

After disappointing growth in 2019, we began to see signs of stabilization and risk reduction, including the Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal. In January, the IMF projected growth to strengthen from 2.9 percent in 2019 to 3.3 percent in 2020 and 3.4 percent in 2021. This projected uptick in growth is dependent on improved performance in some emerging market and developing economies.

Monetary and fiscal policy have been doing their part. In fact, monetary easing added approximately 0.5 percentage points to global growth last year. Forty-nine central banks cut rates 71 times as part of the most synchronized monetary action since the global financial crisis.

But the global economy is far from solid ground. While some uncertainties have receded, new ones have emerged. The truth is that uncertainty is becoming the new normal. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Fiscal Policies For Women’s Economic Empowerment Get email updates

Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2020

By Stefania Fabrizio, Daniel Gurara and Lisa Kolovich

Making sure that opportunities to enter the workforce are fair and rewarding for women benefits everyone. Yet, the average female workforce participation rate across countries is still 20 percentage points lower than the male rate, largely because gender gaps in wages and access to opportunities, such as education, stubbornly persist.

Our new study finds that fiscal policy choices that address gender equality—such as investing in education or infrastructure, developing better sanitation facilities, implementing individual-based tax regimes, and offering parental leave—create more economic opportunities for women, increase growth, and reduce poverty and inequality.

When governments actively promote policies to increase female labor force participation, more women do indeed join the labor force.

Most measures pay for themselves in the long run without additional costs for governments and the added bonus—a larger workforce leads to higher economic activity and growth, which generate additional tax revenue for the country.

Inclusive fiscal policies Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How High Should Government Debt Go? Economists Can’t Agree

Posted by hkarner - 18. Februar 2020

Date: 17‑02‑2020

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Economists warned a decade ago that pushing public debt above about 90% of GDP could hurt the economy. Now some aren’t so sure.

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, visiting a construction site for the High Speed 2 project in Birmingham Feb. 11, has promised to spend billions on infrastructure.

FRANKFURT—Governments around the world are loading up on debt, taking advantage of record‑low borrowing costs to extend a long economic expansion and invest for future challenges.

Economists warned a decade ago that pushing public debt above about 90% of gross domestic product could hurt growth and increase the risk of crises.

Now they aren’t so sure.

In a world of ultralow interest rates, some say higher public debt levels are feasible, even desirable. If sovereign‑bond yields remain below economic growth rates, governments should be able to issue debt without having to pay for it later, argue economists including Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Debt will kill the global economy. But it seems no one cares

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2020

Date: 05‑01‑2020

Source: The Observer

Warnings from the IMF and World Bank have been dismissed. But even if they are wrong, a demographic crisis looms

The IMF says that large amounts of corporate debt in eight key economies could become unserviceable in the event of a recession.

The warning signs are clear. Debt is rising on every continent and especially in the business sector, which has spent the past decade ramping up its borrowing to previously unheard‑of levels.

Last October, the International Monetary Fund said that almost 40% of the corporate debt in eight leading countries – the US, China, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Spain – would become so expensive during a recession that it would be impossible to service. In other words, tens of thousands of businesses, employing millions of people, would have gambled with high levels of borrowing and lost, making themselves insolvent.

Worse, the IMF said the risks were “elevated” in eight out of 10 countries that boasted systemically important financial sectors, adding that this situation was a repeat of the years running up to the last financial crisis.

Last month, the World Bank joined in. It said emerging‑market and developing economies (EMDEs) had pushed their borrowing to a record $55 trillion (£42tn) in 2018. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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