Posted by hkarner - 29. März 2017
Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics and Public Finance at the University of Munich, was President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.
MAR 28, 2017 Project Syndicate
MUNICH – US President Donald Trump has criticized Germany’s enormous current-account surplus, which he considers the result of German currency manipulation. But the president is wrong. While Germany’s external surplus, at 8% of GDP, is big – too big – it is not the result of currency manipulation by Germany. The real culprits are an inflationary credit bubble in southern Europe, the expansionary policies of the European Central Bank, and the financial products US banks sold to the world. So, instead of blaming Germany, President Trump would do well to focus on institutions in his own country.
Germany’s trade surplus is rooted in the fact that Germany sells its goods too cheaply. Here, the Trump administration is basically right. The euro is too cheap relative to the US dollar, and Germany is selling too cheaply to its trading partners within the eurozone. This undervaluation boosts demand for German goods in other countries, while making Germany reluctant to import as much as it exports. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: currency, current account balance, Euro, Germany, Project Syndicate, Sinn, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 28. März 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
In elections in the Netherlands, Australia and Germany in recent days the forces of nationalism and populism suffered setbacks
Is it possible the populist tide is cresting?
It’s too early to draw any definitive conclusions, and the biggest test comes next month in France’s presidential vote. But in elections in the Netherlands, Australia and Germany in recent days the forces of nationalism and populism that have been on the march across First World democracies suffered setbacks.
The most recent test came over the weekend in Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling Christian Democratic Union struck a blow for the political establishment with a convincing victory in the state of Saarland, a good sign for the chancellor ahead of a national vote in September. The Christian Democrats’ secretary-general, Peter Tauber, said voters had “opted for stability and trustworthiness…The CDU is the only force that has made clear it wouldn’t work with either left- or right-wing populists.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Establishment, Germany, Netherlands, Populism, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2017
Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister and former Senior Vice President of the World Bank, is a member of the Spanish Council of State, a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on the United States.
MAR 20, 2017 Project Syndicate
MADRID – At the end of this month, European Union leaders (except for British Prime Minister Theresa May) will gather in Italy to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. Anniversary celebrations are always a good excuse for self-congratulation, and the rhetoric filling the air in the run-up to the Rome summit suggests that this one will be no different. But EU leaders should also be using the anniversary as an opportunity to reflect deeply on the project they are celebrating.
The EU is at a crossroads. The United Kingdom has not even formally launched the withdrawal process, yet Brexit has already demolished one of the European project’s founding assumptions: that, however slowly, integration would always move forward. Now, rising nationalist populism is threatening to unravel six decades of progress. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Europe, Germany, Merkel, Palacio, Populism, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. März 2017
Andreas Sator, 17. März 2017, 09:43 derstandard.at
Zwischen Washington und Berlin bahnt sich ein Konflikt um die sehr hohen deutschen Exporte an. Worum es bei dem Streit wirklich geht
Wien – Er war keine 14 Tage im Amt, schon zettelte Peter Navarro einen Konflikt mit einer der weltweit größten Wirtschaftsmächte an: Deutschland. Das Land würde die USA im internationalen Handel ausnutzen, sagte der Ökonom Ende Jänner. Trump hat ihn genau dafür als Chef des Nationalen Handelsrats an Bord geholt. Die Amerikaner wollen damit Schluss machen, dass sie Jahr für Jahr mehr aus Deutschland importieren als umgekehrt. Worum es bei dem Streit genau geht.
Frage: Was steckt hinter der Deutschland-Kritik der Trump-Regierung?
Antwort: Donald Trump hat versprochen, dass er Arbeitsplätze in die USA zurückbringt. Alles, was die Amerikaner im Ausland einkaufen – Autos, Maschinen, Fernseher –, könnten sie theoretisch auch selber herstellen. In der Regel läuft es aber so: Jeder kauft ein bisschen etwas vom anderen, und nach einiger Zeit gleicht sich das unter dem Strich aus. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Current Account Deficit, Germany, Navarro, Standard, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 15. März 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
‘Mittelstand’ companies see challenges with political and economic instability in core markets
Bottling-equipment maker Krones is rethinking its overseas plans because of rising uncertainty.
Krones AG, a German packaging and bottling-machine manufacturer, planned to invest up to €20 million ($21.1 million) abroad over the next two years, with a strong focus on China, the U.S. and sub-Saharan Africa.
However, the increased amount of global uncertainty has led Krones to reconsider.
“Firms like us always struggle with making decisions for overseas investments,” said Klaus Gerlach, head of international operations at Krones. “In times like these, this is even more so the case,” he said.
A mixture of political and economic instability in core international markets present a challenge for Germany’s “Mittelstand” firms, or small and medium-size companies. Britain’s Brexit vote, tighter capital controls in China and expected changes to U.S. trade policy are forcing executives of these companies to revise their plans. Some are simply putting investment decisions on hold until further notice. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Germany, Mittelstand, SME, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 14. März 2017
Wolfgang Schäuble has been Germany’s Federal Minister of Finance since 2009, helping to engineer the country’s remarkable post-crisis growth. He previously served as Minister of the Interior during the governments of Angela Merkel (2005-09) and Helmut Kohl (1989-91), and has been Chairman of Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union.
MAR 13, 2017 Project Syndicate
BERLIN – Globalization is getting increasingly bad press in the West nowadays. Populist movements allege that it does not benefit the average citizen very much, if at all. Instead, they tout protectionism and unilateralism. National policies, whether with respect to trade or financial regulation, are seen as the surest way to restore national greatness.
But this populist agenda is based on the deeply flawed premise that international cooperation and international trade are zero-sum games, producing only winners and losers. In fact, cooperation and trade can deliver benefits to all countries. For many years now, they have increased global security and certainly global prosperity, with hundreds of millions of people lifted out of poverty, both in the developed and the developing world. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: G20, Germany, Globalization, Inclusion, Project Syndicate, Schäuble | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON
EU insists it won’t discuss trade until divorce is done, putting Theresa May at risk of having to carry out her vow to walk away
Prime Minister Theresa May
With the U.K. most likely just days away from formally triggering the Brexit process, Downing Street is rattled. Its anxiety has little to do with the continuing parliamentary debates over the bill to allow the government to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty: Despite two defeats in the House of Lords, senior officials are confident that Article 50 will be triggered as planned by the end of this month. Instead, what is really unnerving Prime Minister Theresa May’s government is the very real possibility that the Brexit negotiations will collapse before they have properly begun, leaving the U.K. to crash out of the EU in 2019 with no deal.
If the European Union continues to insist that it won’t discuss a new trade relationship until the U.K. agrees to an expensive divorce deal, Mrs. May really will walk away, British officials say. The U.K. government is adamant that both deals—divorce and trade—must be negotiated in parallel.
Downing Street has grounds for being rattled, because there is little sign the EU has any intention of giving way. True, the U.K. has some allies. Some senior figures in the German finance ministry, for example, believe the EU should, after a suitable delay, start discussing future trade ties with the U.K. But in the German Chancellery, which calls the shots and appears to have prepared for Brexit almost as intensively as the British government, officials are sticking to the EU script. There is frustration at what some in Berlin see as “deliberate misconceptions” being promoted by the U.K. government, including playing down the complexity of the divorce negotiations. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Europe, Germany, Nixon, UK, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 9. März 2017
Danke an R.M.
aus dem Piketty Blog bei LeMonde:
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: current account balance, Germany, Investment, Le Monde, Piketty | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. März 2017
Marcel Fratzscher, a former senior manager at the European Central Bank, is President of the think tank DIW Berlin and Professor of Macroeconomics and Finance at Humboldt University, Berlin.
MAR 7, 2017 Project Syndicate
BERLIN – Now that Germany’s current-account surplus has reached a record €270 billion ($285 billion), or close to 8.7% of GDP, the ongoing debate about its economic model has intensified. Eurozone politicians and Donald Trump’s administration in the United States are each blaming the other for the economic imbalance; and all are blaming the euro.
Trump’s administration, for its part, has attacked Germany for exporting too much, and accused it of manipulating the euro. In fact, Germany’s trade surplus has little to do with the euro; which has become a convenient scapegoat – a stand-in for other policy mistakes.
Many Germans view the latest wave of criticism as a sign that others are merely envious of their country’s success, and they have angrily refuted arguments that Germany has tried to gain an unfair competitive advantage. Germany, they point out, does not engage in price dumping or direct export promotion, and its leaders do not target the euro.
On the contrary, prior to adopting the common currency, Germany had for decades pursued a strong-Deutsche Mark policy, because it wanted to encourage domestic exporters to maintain competitiveness through innovation, rather than reliance on the exchange rate. This was the central feature of Germany’s economic model after World War II, and the main reason its long Wirtschaftswunder (“economic miracle”) could be sustained. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: current account balance, ECB, Fed, Fratzscher, Germany, Project Syndicate | 1 Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. März 2017
Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and former Commercial Secretary to the UK Treasury, is Honorary Professor of Economics at Manchester University and former Chairman of the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance.
MAR 6, 2017 Project Syndicate
LONDON – Here’s a reality check for British and American policymakers, and for the many pundits who frequently comment on world trade without understanding its realities: data on Germany’s total exports and imports in 2016 indicate that its largest trading partner is now China. France and the United States have been pushed into second and third place.
This news should not come as a surprise. I have often mused that, by 2020, German companies (and policymakers) might prefer a monetary union with China to one with France, given that German-Chinese trade would likely continue to grow.
And so it has, driven primarily by Chinese exports to Germany. But German exports to China have also been increasing. Notwithstanding a recent slowdown, Germany could soon export more to China than to its crucial neighbor and partner France, and it already exports more to China than it does to Italy. For German exporters, France and the UK are the only European national markets larger than China. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, china, Germany, O'Neill, Project Syndicate, Trump, World Trade | Leave a Comment »