The Prehistory of Merkel’s Latest Coup

Jun 1, 2020 Harold James, Project Syndicate

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel seems to see the historical writing on the wall. Her agreement to a €500 billion European recovery fund suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has done what recent debt, refugee, and foreign-policy crises could not: inaugurate a new phase of the European project.

PRINCETON – Throughout her long chancellorship in Germany, Angela Merkel has repeatedly shown that she is good for a surprise. Now, she’s outdone herself.

In 2010, Merkel bucked expectations by insisting that the International Monetary Fund be included in the effort to rescue Greece. After 2011, she shut down Germany’s nuclear power plants, following the Fukushima disaster in Japan. Then, in 2015, she opened Germany’s borders to more than one million Syrian refugees. And now, she has agreed to a proposal for a joint €500 billion ($556 billion) recovery fund to help the European Union’s hardest-hit national economies through the COVID-19 crisis.Every one of these policy decisions has provoked howls of outrage in Germany, as well as hand-wringing by other Europeans who are reluctant to allow Germany an outsize leadership role.

Deutsche Wirtschaft bricht ein – Größtes Minus seit Finanzkrise

25.05.2020 um 10:26, presse.com

BIP schrumpfte im ersten Quartal gegenüber Vorquartal um 2,2 Prozent. Das zweite Quartal dürfte noch schlechter werden.

Export, Privatkonsum und Unternehmensinvestitionen brechen in der Coronakrise ein: Die deutsche Wirtschaft rutscht in eine Rezession. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) schrumpfte im ersten Vierteljahr gegenüber dem Vorquartal um 2,2 Prozent, wie das Statistische Bundesamt mitteilte. Die Behörde bestätigte damit erste Daten. Noch schlechter dürfte Ökonomen zufolge das zweite Quartal ausfallen.

Der Einbruch zum Jahresanfang war der stärkste Rückgang im Quartalsvergleich seit der globalen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise 2008/09 und der zweitstärkste seit der deutschen Wiedervereinigung. Obwohl die Ausbreitung des neuartigen Virus die Wirtschaftsleistung im Jänner und Februar nicht wesentlich beeinträchtigte, „seien die Auswirkungen der Pandemie damit bereits für das erste Quartal 2020 gravierend“, erklärten die Statistiker.

Die Schließung zahlreicher Geschäfte ab Mitte März zur Eindämmung der Pandemie bremste den Privatkonsum. Die Konsumausgaben der Verbraucher brachen im ersten Vierteljahr um 3,2 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorquartal ein. Der Privatkonsum ist eine wichtige Stütze der deutschen Konjunktur und macht gut die Hälfte der gesamten Wirtschaftsleistung aus. Der Export von Waren und Dienstleistungen verringerte sich im ersten Quartal um 3,1 Prozent.

Germany Enters Recession but Fares Better Than Neighbors

Date: 15‑05‑2020

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Data show the divergent economic fortunes of major European countries

Germany managed to keep most of its factories open during the lockdown.

FRANKFURT—Germany fell into recession in the first quarter, shrinking at its second‑fastest pace since reunification as the coronavirus pandemic bit into everything from retailers to auto exporters, but Europe’s powerhouse economy is nonetheless expected to fare better than its neighbors over the balance of 2020.

Germany’s gross domestic product shrank by 8.6% in the first quarter on an annualized basis. Since fourth‑quarter figures were revised to show a small contraction, Friday’s data indicates that Germany is now in recession.

While the German economy is expected to shrink more sharply in the second quarter, when lockdowns to slow the spread of the new coronavirus were at their peak, the data already show the divergent economic fortunes of major European countries—a split that is expected to grow. That could create political frictions within the European Union and complicate the bloc’s efforts to combat the crisis.

EIN URTEIL MIT ANSTECKUNGSGEFAHR

FURCHE-Kolumne 292, Wilfried Stadler

Das hat gerade noch gefehlt! Als hätte Europa mit der Bewältigung der massiven wirtschaftlichen Folgen der COVID19-Pandemie noch nicht genügend Sorgen, müssen wir ab sofort auch eine Welle gegenseitiger Ansteckung hoch verschuldeter Euro-Länder fürchten, wie sie aus der Eurokrise noch schmerzhaft in Erinnerung ist.

Auslöser dafür ist das jüngst ergangene, harsche Urteil des deutschen Verfassungsgerichtshofs, in dem er die seit 2015 betriebenen Anleihekäufe der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) für unzulässig, weil „kompetenzwidrig“ erklärt. In einem früheren Streit um ein 2013 zur Euro-Rettung eingesetztes Vorgängerprogramm war der Europäische Gerichtshof (EuGH) noch zu einem positiven Urteil gekommen, mit dem sich die deutschen Verfassungshüter abzufinden schienen. Diesmal holten sie jedoch weiter aus und stellten die geldpolitische Urteilskraft des EuGH gleich grundsätzlich in Frage. Zwei zentrale, bisher unangefochten souverän agierende europäische Institutionen geraten damit in massiven Rechtfertigungsdruck gegenüber dem wirtschaftlich gewichtigsten EU-Mitgliedsstaat.

Christian Drosten, Germany’s covid‑19 explainer‑in‑chief

Date: 30‑04‑2020

Source: The Economist

A virologist’s podcast helps Germans make sense of the pandemic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TK83sygOdg&list=PLkKON9te6p3OpxqDskVsxXOmhfW0uPi1H

Christian drosten of Berlin’s Charité—Germany’s most renowned hospital—knows a thing or two about going viral. Despite his busy schedule advising Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government, Charité’s head of virology has regularly spoken with two journalists from ndr, a public broadcaster, since February 26th. Their 30‑minute‑plus podcast went out every weekday for the first six weeks of the crisis, and still goes out twice a week.

When the podcast launched, Germany had just 21 recorded cases of covid‑19 and the producers planned just ten to 15 episodes. There have now been 161,539 cases, and 36 episodes to date, which together have received 34m plays. It is the most popular podcast in Apple’s iTunes store across Germany and Austria, and number two in Switzerland.

Strategic pile‑up

Date: 09‑04‑2020

Source: The Economist: Schumpeter

The idea that some industries are too important to leave to markets is back on the agenda

“If we learn anything from this crisis, [it is that] never again should we have to depend on the rest of the world for our essential medicines and counter‑measures,” thundered Peter Navarro, a White House trade adviser, on April 3rd. A few days later President Donald Trump pressed 3m, an American multinational which makes medical masks, to divert more of them home, at the expense of other countries.

Mr Navarro and his boss are knee‑jerk protectionists. But with the market for masks broken by covid‑19, their worries are understandable. So are similar noises by other national leaders. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, often painted by critics as a free‑trading neoliberal, has called relying on others for food supplies “madness” and his finance minister instructed supermarkets to buy only domestic produce. The eu has curbed exports of some medical gear. India, the world’s biggest maker of generic drugs, has done the same with hydroxychloroquine, an antimalarial drug that some suggest (with little evidence) might treat covid‑19. Countries from Kazakhstan to Vietnam have cut food exports, leading the un to warn of shortages.

Deutschlands Unfähigkeit lähmt Europa

Date: 14‑02‑2020

Source: Die Welt Von Clemens Wergin

Im Interview mit der „Financial Times“ betonte Merkel das Interesse Deutschlands an einer guten Beziehung zu den USA: „Und wenn es in unserem Interesse liegt, dann müssen wir natürlich auch unsere Beiträge dazu leisten.“

Der Einfluss des Westens in der Welt sinkt. Autoritäre Regime wie in Moskau und Peking breiten sich aus – und bedrohen Europas Zusammenhalt. Deutschland aber weigert sich, geostrategische Herausforderungen als solche überhaupt anzuerkennen.

Sicherheitsexperten sind nicht bekannt dafür, sprachlich besonders kreativ zu sein. Das hat die Macher der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz nicht davon abgehalten, einen neuen Begriff zu kreieren, um den Ernst der Lage zu verdeutlichen: „Westlessness“. Das englische Wort bezeichnet ein doppeltes Schwinden.

Europe Needs a DARPA

Date: 06‑02‑2020

Source: Project Syndicate by Dalia Marin

Dalia Marin is Chair of International Economics at the University of Munich and a research fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. 

Germany needs an industrial revival of the sort it experienced in the late nineteenth century, but this will be possible only if the state offers technological backing to German companies. The US government’s successful Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency should serve as a model for Germany and Europe to follow.

MUNICH – The mood in Germany is bleak, and not just because of the country’s current economic slowdown. Long famed for its engineering know‑how and high‑quality industrial products, the German economy is now in danger of falling behind as software and data become increasingly crucial to future prosperity.

And the recent news that US technology company Apple is now worth more than the entire DAX index of 30 leading German companies has no doubt deepened the gloom among business leaders and policymakers. If German firms don’t adapt quickly, some may struggle to survive.

Deutschland AG rethinks workers’ role in management

Date: 02‑02‑2020

Source: The Economist

As the idea of “co‑determination” gains fans elsewhere, its birthplace is having second thoughts

One hundred years ago, on January 13th 1920, thousands took to the streets of Berlin, waving red flags and chanting slogans demanding more power for workers as lawmakers in the Reichstag debated a bill on works councils. Placards called, in Gothic script, for volle Mitbestimmung. The “full co‑determination” the protesters desired amounted to nothing short of an equal say for workers and bosses in company management. The security police killed 42 and injured more than 100 in the young Weimar Republic’s bloodiest episode to date. Friedrich Ebert, the president, declared a state of emergency.

In the past century German bosses, long opposed to the idea, have made their peace with it. Co‑determination has become a defining feature of German capitalism. And an appealing one, across the West’s political spectrum. France’s centrist president, Emmanuel Macron, mutters about wanting more of it. Theresa May set up a commission to look into how it might work in Britain while she was the Conservative prime minister. Most volubly, Elizabeth Warren, a progressive senator from Massachusetts vying for the Democratic presidential nomination, has a bill that would, among other things, reserve 40% of board seats of companies with revenues over $1bn for workers’ representatives. Many Americans wouldn’t mind; Civic Analytics, a data firm, finds majorities of both Democratic and Republican voters in favour of allowing employees at big firms to elect representatives to the board of directors.

A Stronger Germany Could Save Europe

Date: 28‑01‑2020

Source: The Wall Street Journal By Walter Russell Mead

Angela Merkel’s likely successor wants more defense spending and overseas deployments.

German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp‑Karrenbauer

It’s time for Berlin to take a more assertive stance in world affairs—that’s the opinion of German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp‑Karrenbauer. Ms. Kramp‑Karrenbauer is the heir apparent to Chancellor Angela Merkel and replaced her in 2018 as party chairman for the Christian Democratic Union. This soft‑spoken woman, known as AKK, told me her views on Germany’s position in world politics in an interview here last week and a follow‑up exchange of emails.

Germany, and for that matter Europe, can no longer go on in the old way, she said. In a new international reality marked by the “return of great‑power competition for spheres of influence and supremacy,” Germany “cannot just wait for others to act. . . . We must develop our own concepts, present our own options. . . . It is our duty as Germans, and it is very much in our own interest, to join in these international debates, to drive them forward, to play a part in protecting the international order.”

Since becoming defense minister last summer, AKK has been making waves, most notably when she delivered a speech in Munich last fall that called on Germany to raise military spending gradually to 2% of gross domestic product and urged Germans to consider deployments as far afield as the Sahel and the Indo‑Pacific. Germany already has about 1,000 troops in Mali as part of the United Nations peacekeeping mission there.