Posts Tagged ‘Japan’
Posted by hkarner - 8. April 2017
Posted on April 6, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Gaston Gelos and Jay Surti
Versions in Français (French), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
What happens if advanced economies remain stuck in a long-lasting funk marked by tepid growth, low interest rates, aging populations and stagnant productivity? Japan offers an example of the impact on banks, and our analysis suggests that there could also be far-reaching consequences for insurance companies, pension funds, and asset-management firms.
You might argue that this scenario of economic malaise has already materialized; after all, interest rates and economic growth have been low since the financial crisis in 2008. The question is whether the post-crisis landscape represents a temporary departure from the pace of growth we’ve come to expect since World War II, or whether it’s the start of a new normal.
Notwithstanding the recent increase in long-term yields in some advanced economies, the Japanese experience suggests that we cannot be sure whether an exit from a low-growth/low interest rate trap is imminent or permanent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Gelos, GFSR, Growth, IMF, Japan, Surti | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 28. März 2017
von: Martin Kölling, Handelsblatt.com
Datum: 28.03.2017 17:04 Uhr
Selbst Bagger und Bulldozer werden in Zeiten der Digitalisierung smart. Mit Drohnen, künstlicher Intelligenz und Datenauswertung will der Hersteller Komatsu die Baustelle revolutionieren – und sein Geschäftsmodell.
Tokio. Die Baustelle der Zukunft sieht unscheinbar aus. Nicht ganz einen Hektar ist die Sandfläche in einem Vorstadthafen Tokios groß, auf der ein Bulldozer und ein paar Bagger herumrollen. Die Innovation bemerkt nur, wer den Führern der Baumaschinen genau auf die Hände schaut. Ein Bulldozerfahrer nimmt die Hände vom Steuer, dennoch bleibt sein Arbeitsgerät präzise in der Spur. Denn vernetzt mit einem Steuerzentrum in der Datenwolke und aufgerüstet mit zentimetergenauen dreidimensionalen Karten, Kameras und künstlicher Intelligenz kann die Maschine schon einen Teil ihrer Arbeit halbautomatisch verrichten.
„Smart Construction“ nennt der japanische Baumaschinenhersteller Komatsu das Konzept, mit dem die globale Nummer zwei der Branche nun den Weltmarkt erobern und gleichzeitig sein Geschäftsmodell umbauen will. Dabei bauen die Japaner auf ihr Komtrax-System auf, das durch die Vernetzung mit dem Internet schon seit Jahren die Fernwartung von Maschinen erlaubt. Doch nun gehe es nicht mehr allein um den Verkauf von immer selbständigeren Maschinen und ihrer Wartung, erklärt Chikashi Shike, der Chef der Komatsu-Sparte für Smart Construction. „Wir wollen unser Angebot erweitern.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Drone, Handelsblatt, Japan, Komatsu, Smart Construction, Technology | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Futuristic forecast spurs investment wave from Japanese telecom company
SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son
BARCELONA—Within 30 years, artificial intelligence will be smarter than the human brain.
That is according to Masayoshi Son, chief executive of SoftBank Group Corp., who says that supersmart robots will outnumber humans and more than a trillion objects will be connected to the internet within three decades.
These beliefs underpin the wave of large and surprising deals the Japanese internet and telecommunications company has pulled off in the past year, he said Monday. These include starting a $100 billion technology-investment fund with a Saudi sovereign-wealth fund, buying British microprocessor designer ARM Holdings PLC for $32 billion and acquiring U.S. asset manager Fortress Investment Group PLC for $3.3 billion.
This 30-year forecast created urgency, Mr. Son said in a speech at the telecom industry’s biggest trade show, Mobile World Congress. “That is why I’m in a hurry to aggregate cash to invest.”
In a brief interview after his speech, Mr. Son said his $100 billion project with the Saudis, dubbed the SoftBank Vision Fund, was bigger than the $65 billion in combined investments from the venture-capital world. He said the SoftBank Vision Fund would be focused. “Artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, smart robots: Those are the three main things I’m interested in,” he said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: AI, ARM, Japan, Robotics, Softbank, Son, Technology, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2017
Mary Amiti, David Weinstein
12 February 2017, voxeu
We are living in a world in which banks are large relative to the economies they serve. This column uses comprehensive data on Japanese banks from 1990 to 2010 to examine how the fates of individual banks matter for aggregate performance. Much of the fluctuation in Japanese aggregate investment appears to be driven by the idiosyncratic successes and failures of a limited number of institutions, and there is good reason to believe that the situation is similar in many developed countries.
Modern finance has increasingly been characterised by higher financial concentration. Federal Reserve data show that in 2010 the three largest US institutions – Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Citigroup – held 49% of all banking assets. In Japan, the three largest ‘megabanks’ (SMBC, Mizuho, and MUFG) account for just over half of all lending to listed corporations, and evidence from Buch and Neugebauer (2011) for Europe suggests that these examples are not exceptions – they are the rule. We are living in a world in which banks are large relative to the economies they serve.
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Amiti, Banken, Japan, voxeu, Weinstein | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2017
Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.
FEB 9, 2017 Project Syndicate
CAMBRIDGE – As US President Donald Trump proceeds to destabilize the post-war global economic order, much of the world is collectively holding its breath. Commentators search for words to describe his assault on conventional norms of leadership and tolerance in a modern liberal democracy. The mainstream media, faced with a president who might sometimes be badly uninformed and yet really believes what he is saying, hesitate to label conspicuously false statements as lies.
But some would argue that beneath the chaos and bluster, there is an economic rationale to the Trump administration’s disorderly retreat from globalization. According to this view, the US has been duped into enabling China’s ascendency, and one day Americans will come to regret it. We economists tend to view abdication of US world leadership as a historic mistake.
It is important to acknowledge that the roots of the anti-globalization movement in the United States run much deeper than disenfranchised blue-collar workers. For example, some economists opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (a 12-country trade deal that would have covered 40% of the global economy) on the questionable grounds that it would have harmed American workers. It fact, the TPP would have opened Japan far more than it would have affected the US. Rejecting it only opens the door to Chinese economic dominance across the Pacific. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: china, Japan, NAFTA, Populism, Project Syndicate, Rogoff, TPP, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2017
Source: The Economist: Schumpeter
Soaring share prices suggest the end of the tunnel for big banks
IN THE Bible, seven years of feast were followed by seven years of famine. For banks there have been ten lean years. Subprime-loan defaults started to rise in February 2007, causing a near-collapse of the industry in America and Europe. Next came bail-outs from governments, then years of grovelling before regulators, mass firings of staff and quarter after quarter of poor results that left banks’ shareholders disappointed. Now, a decade later, the moneylenders are quietly wondering if 2017 is the year in which their industry turns a corner.
Over the past six months the FTSE index of global bank shares has leapt by 24%. American banks have led the way, with the value of Bank of America rising by 67%, and that of JPMorgan Chase by 39%. In Europe BNP Paribas’ market value has risen by 52%. In Japan shares in the lumbering Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group—the rich world’s biggest bank by assets—have behaved like those of a frisky internet startup; they are up by 57%. Predictions about global banks’ future returns on equity have stopped falling, note analysts at UBS, a Swiss bank. Some of the biggest casualties of the financial crisis are even expanding. On December 20th Lloyds, bailed out by British taxpayers in 2009 at a cost of $33bn, said it would buy MBNA, a credit-card firm, for $2bn. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Dodd-Frank, Economist, Europe, Finanzkrise, fintech, Japan, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2016
Mohamed A. El-Erian
Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, is Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.
DEC 19, 2016 Project Syndicate
DUBAI – US President-elect Donald Trump should have a relatively clear road ahead at home for the implementation of his economic program: with Republicans holding majorities in both houses of Congress, he seems likely to benefit from a break in the political gridlock that has paralyzed the body for the last six years. But the United States economy does not exist in a vacuum. If Trump is to succeed in delivering the high growth and genuine financial stability that he has promised, he will need some help from abroad.
Trump has established infrastructure investment, tax reform, and deregulation as central components of his strategy to boost the US economy’s actual and potential growth.that his plan can unfold as intended, he has set ambitious targets, including GDP growth approaching 4% per year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: china, El-Erian, Germany, Growth, Japan, Project Syndicate, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 31. Oktober 2016
on October 27, 2016 RGE EconoMonitor
The Land of the Rising Sun emerged from the prolonged stagnation of the 1990s by carrying out various initiatives such as deregulation, privatisation and fiscal consolidation; these methods remain relevant today for many developed and developing countries.
For some developed countries, the crisis that began in 2008 was far from being the first over the past quarter century. Japan is an example of this. After experiencing rapid post-war expansion and becoming the world’s second largest economy in the mid-1970s, the Land of the Rising Sun entered a period of sluggish economic growth at the beginning of the 1990s. If, from 1981 to 1990, the average annual rate of growth of Japan’s economy was 3.95%, then from 1991 to 2000, it amounted to only 1.19%.
IndexBox analysts can confirm that one of the key features of the crisis was that it was accompanied by price deflation on both commodities and financial assets. From 1990 to 2002, the total net worth of Japanese households fell by 6.7%, to 2.6 trillion yen, while the overall value of land plots decreased by 40%, to 888 billion yen. This land depreciation forced people to postpone their decisions regarding the acquisition of a home or property; this had a dampening effect on the construction sector, which had been the main driver of investment demand pre-crisis. Poor consumer activity was also reflected in the rates of growth of the GDP, and in the price trends and patterns for goods and services: from 1995 to 2010, not a single year was recorded with a positive GDP deflator; 1996 was the only exception to this, when inflation was marked at 0.6%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Debt, Deflation, Deregulation, Finanzkrise, Growth, Japan, Koizumi, RGE Monitor, Rodionov | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 27. Oktober 2016
Koichi Hamada, Special Economic Adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is Professor Emeritus of Economics at Yale University and at the University of Tokyo.
OCT 26, 2016 Project Syndicate
TOKYO – Tokyo is in the midst of a construction boom, with old high-rise office and apartment buildings being rebuilt in more modern and elegant forms, all while maintaining stringent environmental standards. So bright is Tokyo’s gleam – which is sure to impress visitors at the 2020 Olympic Games – that the city might seem like an anomaly, given gloomy reports that, after decades of stagnation, Japan’s GDP growth remains anemic.
In fact, even the small cities of Kushiro and Nemuro in Hokkaido, located near the disputed islands between Russia and Japan, are being rebuilt and modernized at a brisk pace, as is apparent to any tourist (as I was this summer). What explains this divergence between disappointing national economic data and visible progress in Japanese cities?
It may be a problem of calculation. According to official data, Japan’s economic growth slowed by one percentage point, in real terms, in the 2014 fiscal year. Yet, according to Bank of Japan researchers, tax data suggest that growth was more than three percentage points higher than the official figure, implying that GDP was some ¥30 trillion (about $300 billion dollars) larger than officially reported. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Abenomics, Hamada, Japan, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 27. September 2016
Stephen S. Roach
Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.
SEP 26, 2016,, Project Syndicate
NEW HAVEN – The final day of the summer marked the start of yet another season of futile policymaking by two of the world’s major central banks – the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed did nothing, which is precisely the problem. And the alchemists at the BOJ unveiled yet another feeble unconventional policy gambit.
Both the Fed and the BOJ are pursuing strategies that are woefully disconnected from the economies they have been entrusted to manage. Moreover, their latest actions reinforce a deepening commitment to an increasingly insidious transmission mechanism between monetary policy, financial markets, and asset-dependent economies. This approach led to the meltdown of 2008-2009, and it could well sow the seeds of another crisis in the years ahead.
Lost in the debate over the efficacy of the new and powerful tools that central bankers have added to their arsenal is the harsh reality of anemic economic growth. Japan is an obvious case in point. Stuck in what has been essentially a 1% growth trajectory for the last quarter-century, its economy has failed to respond to repeated efforts at extraordinary monetary stimulus. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: BoJ, Central Banks, Fed, Growth, Japan, Project Syndicate, Roach | Leave a Comment »