Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Japan’

How an Extended Period of Low Growth Could Reshape the Financial Industry

Posted by hkarner - 8. April 2017

Posted on by iMFdirect

By Gaston Gelos and Jay Surti

Versions in Français (French), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

What happens if advanced economies remain stuck in a long-lasting funk marked by tepid growth, low interest rates, aging populations and stagnant productivity? Japan offers an example of the impact on banks, and our analysis suggests that there could also be far-reaching consequences for insurance companies, pension funds, and asset-management firms.

You might argue that this scenario of economic malaise has already materialized; after all, interest rates and economic growth have been low since the financial crisis in 2008. The question is whether the post-crisis landscape represents a temporary departure from the pace of growth we’ve come to expect since World War II, or whether it’s the start of a new normal.

Notwithstanding the recent increase in long-term yields in some advanced economies, the Japanese experience suggests that we cannot be sure whether an exit from a low-growth/low interest rate trap is imminent or permanent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die Baustelle wird smart

Posted by hkarner - 28. März 2017

von: Martin Kölling, Handelsblatt.com

Datum: 28.03.2017 17:04 Uhr

Selbst Bagger und Bulldozer werden in Zeiten der Digitalisierung smart. Mit Drohnen, künstlicher Intelligenz und Datenauswertung will der Hersteller Komatsu die Baustelle revolutionieren – und sein Geschäftsmodell.

 

Tokio. Die Baustelle der Zukunft sieht unscheinbar aus. Nicht ganz einen Hektar ist die Sandfläche in einem Vorstadthafen Tokios groß, auf der ein Bulldozer und ein paar Bagger herumrollen. Die Innovation bemerkt nur, wer den Führern der Baumaschinen genau auf die Hände schaut. Ein Bulldozerfahrer nimmt die Hände vom Steuer, dennoch bleibt sein Arbeitsgerät präzise in der Spur. Denn vernetzt mit einem Steuerzentrum in der Datenwolke und aufgerüstet mit zentimetergenauen dreidimensionalen Karten, Kameras und künstlicher Intelligenz kann die Maschine schon einen Teil ihrer Arbeit halbautomatisch verrichten.

„Smart Construction“ nennt der japanische Baumaschinenhersteller Komatsu das Konzept, mit dem die globale Nummer zwei der Branche nun den Weltmarkt erobern und gleichzeitig sein Geschäftsmodell umbauen will. Dabei bauen die Japaner auf ihr Komtrax-System auf, das durch die Vernetzung mit dem Internet schon seit Jahren die Fernwartung von Maschinen erlaubt. Doch nun gehe es nicht mehr allein um den Verkauf von immer selbständigeren Maschinen und ihrer Wartung, erklärt Chikashi Shike, der Chef der Komatsu-Sparte für Smart Construction. „Wir wollen unser Angebot erweitern.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Supersmart Robots Will Outnumber Humans Within 30 Years, Says SoftBank CEO

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2017

Date: 02-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Futuristic forecast spurs investment wave from Japanese telecom company

koSoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son

BARCELONA—Within 30 years, artificial intelligence will be smarter than the human brain.

That is according to Masayoshi Son, chief executive of SoftBank Group Corp., who says that supersmart robots will outnumber humans and more than a trillion objects will be connected to the internet within three decades.

These beliefs underpin the wave of large and surprising deals the Japanese internet and telecommunications company has pulled off in the past year, he said Monday. These include starting a $100 billion technology-investment fund with a Saudi sovereign-wealth fund, buying British microprocessor designer ARM Holdings PLC for $32 billion and acquiring U.S. asset manager Fortress Investment Group PLC for $3.3 billion.

This 30-year forecast created urgency, Mr. Son said in a speech at the telecom industry’s biggest trade show, Mobile World Congress. “That is why I’m in a hurry to aggregate cash to invest.”

In a brief interview after his speech, Mr. Son said his $100 billion project with the Saudis, dubbed the SoftBank Vision Fund, was bigger than the $65 billion in combined investments from the venture-capital world. He said the SoftBank Vision Fund would be focused. “Artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, smart robots: Those are the three main things I’m interested in,” he said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why shocks to large banks cause big GDP swings

Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2017

Mary Amiti, David Weinstein

Assistant Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Carl S. Shoup Professor of the Japanese Economy and Associate Director of Research at the Center for Japanese Economy and Business

12 February 2017, voxeu

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Why Trump Can’t Bully China

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2017

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The three Rs behind global banks’ recovery

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2017

Date: 05-01-2017
Source: The Economist: Schumpeter

Soaring share prices suggest the end of the tunnel for big banks

IN THE Bible, seven years of feast were followed by seven years of famine. For banks there have been ten lean years. Subprime-loan defaults started to rise in February 2007, causing a near-collapse of the industry in America and Europe. Next came bail-outs from governments, then years of grovelling before regulators, mass firings of staff and quarter after quarter of poor results that left banks’ shareholders disappointed. Now, a decade later, the moneylenders are quietly wondering if 2017 is the year in which their industry turns a corner.

Over the past six months the FTSE index of global bank shares has leapt by 24%. American banks have led the way, with the value of Bank of America rising by 67%, and that of JPMorgan Chase by 39%. In Europe BNP Paribas’ market value has risen by 52%. In Japan shares in the lumbering Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group—the rich world’s biggest bank by assets—have behaved like those of a frisky internet startup; they are up by 57%. Predictions about global banks’ future returns on equity have stopped falling, note analysts at UBS, a Swiss bank. Some of the biggest casualties of the financial crisis are even expanding. On December 20th Lloyds, bailed out by British taxpayers in 2009 at a cost of $33bn, said it would buy MBNA, a credit-card firm, for $2bn. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The International Barriers to Trump’s Economic Plan

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2016

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Japan’s Great Recession: Lessons for Today’s Global Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 31. Oktober 2016

By on October 27, 2016  RGE EconoMonitor

The Land of the Rising Sun emerged from the prolonged stagnation of the 1990s by carrying out various initiatives such as deregulation, privatisation and fiscal consolidation; these methods remain relevant today for many developed and developing countries.

For some developed countries, the crisis that began in 2008 was far from being the first over the past quarter century. Japan is an example of this. After experiencing rapid post-war expansion and becoming the world’s second largest economy in the mid-1970s, the Land of the Rising Sun entered a period of sluggish economic growth at the beginning of the 1990s. If, from 1981 to 1990, the average annual rate of growth of Japan’s economy was 3.95%, then from 1991 to 2000, it amounted to only 1.19%.

IndexBox analysts can confirm that one of the key features of the crisis was that it was accompanied by price deflation on both commodities and financial assets. From 1990 to 2002, the total net worth of Japanese households fell by 6.7%, to 2.6 trillion yen, while the overall value of land plots decreased by 40%, to 888 billion yen. This land depreciation forced people to postpone their decisions regarding the acquisition of a home or property; this had a dampening effect on the construction sector, which had been the main driver of investment demand pre-crisis. Poor consumer activity was also reflected in the rates of growth of the GDP, and in the price trends and patterns for goods and services: from 1995 to 2010, not a single year was recorded with a positive GDP deflator; 1996 was the only exception to this, when inflation was marked at 0.6%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Secret Success of Abenomics

Posted by hkarner - 27. Oktober 2016

Photo of Koichi Hamada

Koichi Hamada

Koichi Hamada, Special Economic Adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is Professor Emeritus of Economics at Yale University and at the University of Tokyo. 

OCT 26, 2016 Project Syndicate

TOKYO – Tokyo is in the midst of a construction boom, with old high-rise office and apartment buildings being rebuilt in more modern and elegant forms, all while maintaining stringent environmental standards. So bright is Tokyo’s gleam – which is sure to impress visitors at the 2020 Olympic Games – that the city might seem like an anomaly, given gloomy reports that, after decades of stagnation, Japan’s GDP growth remains anemic.

In fact, even the small cities of Kushiro and Nemuro in Hokkaido, located near the disputed islands between Russia and Japan, are being rebuilt and modernized at a brisk pace, as is apparent to any tourist (as I was this summer). What explains this divergence between disappointing national economic data and visible progress in Japanese cities?

It may be a problem of calculation. According to official data, Japan’s economic growth slowed by one percentage point, in real terms, in the 2014 fiscal year. Yet, according to Bank of Japan researchers, tax data suggest that growth was more than three percentage points higher than the official figure, implying that GDP was some ¥30 trillion (about $300 billion dollars) larger than officially reported. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Desperate Central Bankers

Posted by hkarner - 27. September 2016

Photo of Stephen S. Roach

Stephen S. Roach

Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

SEP 26, 2016,, Project Syndicate

NEW HAVEN – The final day of the summer marked the start of yet another season of futile policymaking by two of the world’s major central banks – the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed did nothing, which is precisely the problem. And the alchemists at the BOJ unveiled yet another feeble unconventional policy gambit.

Both the Fed and the BOJ are pursuing strategies that are woefully disconnected from the economies they have been entrusted to manage. Moreover, their latest actions reinforce a deepening commitment to an increasingly insidious transmission mechanism between monetary policy, financial markets, and asset-dependent economies. This approach led to the meltdown of 2008-2009, and it could well sow the seeds of another crisis in the years ahead.

Lost in the debate over the efficacy of the new and powerful tools that central bankers have added to their arsenal is the harsh reality of anemic economic growth. Japan is an obvious case in point. Stuck in what has been essentially a 1% growth trajectory for the last quarter-century, its economy has failed to respond to repeated efforts at extraordinary monetary stimulus. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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