Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Japan’

Year of the Octopus, Part 2

Posted by hkarner - 15. Januar 2018

Only two weeks in and 2018 is already breaking records – mostly in a good way. But that leaves 50 potentially less enjoyable weeks to go. So rather than focus on promising current events, I think I’d better dip back into my annual forecast bag and share a few more highlights with you.


Last week I called 2018 “the Year of the Octopus” because it has so many tentacles. There are many more than eight, so I should probably have made it the Year of the Centipede. In any case, let’s run through a few more projections from my still-growing pile.

Optimism and Hong Kong

Two years ago, when I was at the same Bank of America Merrill Lynch investment conference that I attended last week in Hong Kong, the mood in the room was quite somber, even bearish. The sentiment, shared by many at that gathering, turned out to be wrong.

Last week (while still suffering mightily from jet lag) I had a good conversation with my host, Ajay Kapur (who could not have been more delightful), in which we noted the mood of this year’s conference, which was almost universally upbeat. There was a clear consensus among these very seasoned and powerful traders. Given how wrong the mood was last time, Ajay and I wondered whether we should perhaps be a little trepidatious about the Chinese, Hong Kong, and other Asian markets. I’m not sure what to make of the mood this year, but I just thought I would share that experience. Now let’s move on to the forecasts of some of my other friends. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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A small town in Japan doubles its fertility rate

Posted by hkarner - 11. Januar 2018

Date: 10-01-2018
Source: The Economist

Subsidising parenthood appears to work wonders

A PATCHWORK of nondescript houses nestled at the foot of a mountain, Nagicho looks like an ordinary Japanese town. On closer inspection, something extraordinary marks it out: babies. Yuki Fukuda is one of many local mothers with three children. The bump under her winter coat indicates that another is on the way, part of a baby bonanza that has seen the town’s fertility rate double since 2005.

Not surprisingly, reporters have flocked to this remote corner of the country to see if there is something that promotes fecundity in the water flowing down from Mount Nagi. The cause appears to be more prosaic: economics. Alarmed by the dearth of children, the local government increased incentives to have babies. The fertility rate rose from 1.4 (meaning that the average woman will have 1.4 children in her lifetime, roughly the national rate) to 2.8 in 2014.

Mrs Fukuda will receive a “celebratory” gift of ¥300,000 ($3,530) when she gives birth. A subsidised baby-sitting service is available for just ¥1,800 a day, along with subsidised carseats and other baby accessories. When her children reach secondary school, she will receive ¥90,000 a year for each one who attends. In theory, this stipend is to cover the cost of getting children to school, especially for people who live relatively far away. And whereas usually all but the poorest and the old in Japan have to pay 30% of their health-care bills (with the national government picking up the rest), in Nagicho the local government pays the 30% for children. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Parent firms’ resources and productivity of foreign subsidiaries

Posted by hkarner - 13. November 2017

Professor of Economics, Gakushuin University

Associate Professor of Economics at the Graduate School of International Corporate Strategy (ICS), Hitotsubashi University

Associate Professor at the Faculty of Economics, Toyo University

Kaoru Hosono, Daisuke Miyakawa, Miho Takizawa 12 November 2017, voxeu

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Japan’s Demographic Lessons for Europe

Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2017

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

Contrary to popular belief, Japan has been extraordinarily successful in achieving economic growth, given its rapidly aging population and lack of inflation. For Europe, where the demographic future looks a lot like Japan’s past, there is much to be learned from this experience.

BRUSSELS – Demography is not destiny, at least not entirely. Over centuries, policy can affect fertility decisions, and migration can transform a country, as the experience of the United States shows. Over shorter time horizons, however, demographic trends must be taken as given, and can have a profound impact on growth. Yet demographic factors are often neglected in economic reporting, leading to significant distortions in assessments of countries’ performance. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Japan.

With real output – the key measure of economic performance – having risen by only about 15% since 2000, or less than 1% per year, Japan easily seems the least dynamic of the worlds’ major economies. But given Japan’s demographics – the country’s working-age population has been shrinking by almost 1% per year since the start of this century – this result is remarkable. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The End of Asia’s Strategic Miracle?

Posted by hkarner - 17. August 2017

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Nie wieder Finanzkrise?

Posted by hkarner - 22. Juli 2017

Von André Tomfort, Wiener Zeitung, 21/07/2017

  • Gastkommentar: Warum sich die Chefin der US-Notenbank fatal geirrt haben könnte.

Vor kurzem machte die Chefin der US-Notenbank, Janet Yellen, eine bemerkenswerte Aussage: Auf einer Pressekonferenz in London sagte sie, dass sie nicht mehr damit rechne, in ihrem Leben nochmals eine schwere Finanzkrise wie im Jahr 2008 zu erleben. Sie begründete ihren Optimismus mit den Reformen des Finanzsystems und damit, dass die Banken jetzt krisenfest seien.

Können wir der Fed-Chefin wirklich glauben? Der Sturm der vergangenen Finanzkrise ist abgeebbt, und die Aktien- und Immobilienmärkte bewegen sich in einem langfristigen Aufwärtstrend. Dies ist nicht zuletzt der expansiven Geldpolitik von Yellen und ihren Kollegen in der Eurozone und in Asien zu verdanken. Knapp ein Jahrzehnt lang rekordtiefe Zinsen verfehlen ihre Wirkung an den Finanzmärkten nicht, und auch die globale Konjunktur hat seit einiger Zeit wieder an Fahrt aufgenommen. Trotzdem ist die Nervosität überall zu spüren, und viele Anleger fragen sich: „Wo stehen wir heute? Und wie sicher sind unsere Anlagen?“

Die Immobilienkrise 2008 und 2009 war kein Einzelfall Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Drittgrößte Bank Japans zieht wegen Brexit nach Frankfurt

Posted by hkarner - 1. Juli 2017

1. Juli 2017, 12:29 derstandard.at

Derzeit arbeiten rund 1.000 Mitarbeiter der Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group in London Tokio – Japans drittgrößte Bank Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) wird einem Pressebericht zufolge wegen des Brexits ihre Europa-Zentrale von London nach Frankfurt verlegen. Damit sei auch ein Umzug von Beschäftigten verbunden, berichtete die Wirtschaftszeitung „Nikkei“ berichtete am Samstag, ohne dies zu beziffern. Derzeit arbeiten rund 1.000 SMFG-Mitarbeiter in London.

Die beiden größten japanischen Wertpapierhändler Nomura Holdings und Daiwa Securities haben sich bereits für Frankfurt als ihren künftigen Standort in der EU entschieden. Nach dem geplanten EU-Austritt Großbritanniens brauchen in London ansässige Finanzinstitute eine eigene Gesellschaft mit Banklizenz in einem EU-Land, um ihre Produkte und Dienstleistungen in den verbleibenden 27 Mitgliedstaaten vertreiben zu dürfen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How an Extended Period of Low Growth Could Reshape the Financial Industry

Posted by hkarner - 8. April 2017

Posted on by iMFdirect

By Gaston Gelos and Jay Surti

Versions in Français (French), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)

What happens if advanced economies remain stuck in a long-lasting funk marked by tepid growth, low interest rates, aging populations and stagnant productivity? Japan offers an example of the impact on banks, and our analysis suggests that there could also be far-reaching consequences for insurance companies, pension funds, and asset-management firms.

You might argue that this scenario of economic malaise has already materialized; after all, interest rates and economic growth have been low since the financial crisis in 2008. The question is whether the post-crisis landscape represents a temporary departure from the pace of growth we’ve come to expect since World War II, or whether it’s the start of a new normal.

Notwithstanding the recent increase in long-term yields in some advanced economies, the Japanese experience suggests that we cannot be sure whether an exit from a low-growth/low interest rate trap is imminent or permanent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die Baustelle wird smart

Posted by hkarner - 28. März 2017

von: Martin Kölling, Handelsblatt.com

Datum: 28.03.2017 17:04 Uhr

Selbst Bagger und Bulldozer werden in Zeiten der Digitalisierung smart. Mit Drohnen, künstlicher Intelligenz und Datenauswertung will der Hersteller Komatsu die Baustelle revolutionieren – und sein Geschäftsmodell.


Tokio. Die Baustelle der Zukunft sieht unscheinbar aus. Nicht ganz einen Hektar ist die Sandfläche in einem Vorstadthafen Tokios groß, auf der ein Bulldozer und ein paar Bagger herumrollen. Die Innovation bemerkt nur, wer den Führern der Baumaschinen genau auf die Hände schaut. Ein Bulldozerfahrer nimmt die Hände vom Steuer, dennoch bleibt sein Arbeitsgerät präzise in der Spur. Denn vernetzt mit einem Steuerzentrum in der Datenwolke und aufgerüstet mit zentimetergenauen dreidimensionalen Karten, Kameras und künstlicher Intelligenz kann die Maschine schon einen Teil ihrer Arbeit halbautomatisch verrichten.

„Smart Construction“ nennt der japanische Baumaschinenhersteller Komatsu das Konzept, mit dem die globale Nummer zwei der Branche nun den Weltmarkt erobern und gleichzeitig sein Geschäftsmodell umbauen will. Dabei bauen die Japaner auf ihr Komtrax-System auf, das durch die Vernetzung mit dem Internet schon seit Jahren die Fernwartung von Maschinen erlaubt. Doch nun gehe es nicht mehr allein um den Verkauf von immer selbständigeren Maschinen und ihrer Wartung, erklärt Chikashi Shike, der Chef der Komatsu-Sparte für Smart Construction. „Wir wollen unser Angebot erweitern.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Supersmart Robots Will Outnumber Humans Within 30 Years, Says SoftBank CEO

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2017

Date: 02-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Futuristic forecast spurs investment wave from Japanese telecom company

koSoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son

BARCELONA—Within 30 years, artificial intelligence will be smarter than the human brain.

That is according to Masayoshi Son, chief executive of SoftBank Group Corp., who says that supersmart robots will outnumber humans and more than a trillion objects will be connected to the internet within three decades.

These beliefs underpin the wave of large and surprising deals the Japanese internet and telecommunications company has pulled off in the past year, he said Monday. These include starting a $100 billion technology-investment fund with a Saudi sovereign-wealth fund, buying British microprocessor designer ARM Holdings PLC for $32 billion and acquiring U.S. asset manager Fortress Investment Group PLC for $3.3 billion.

This 30-year forecast created urgency, Mr. Son said in a speech at the telecom industry’s biggest trade show, Mobile World Congress. “That is why I’m in a hurry to aggregate cash to invest.”

In a brief interview after his speech, Mr. Son said his $100 billion project with the Saudis, dubbed the SoftBank Vision Fund, was bigger than the $65 billion in combined investments from the venture-capital world. He said the SoftBank Vision Fund would be focused. “Artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, smart robots: Those are the three main things I’m interested in,” he said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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