Posted by hkarner - 26. Februar 2017
Source: Project Syndicate
Brigitte Granville is Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy at the School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London. She is the author of Remembering Inflation and a forthcoming book on the French predicament on the eve of the country’s presidential and parliamentary elections in 2017.
PARIS – For at least the past year, populism has been wreaking havoc on Western democracies. Populist forces – parties, leaders, and ideas – underpinned the “Leave” campaign’s victory in the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States. Now, populism lurks ominously in the background of the Netherlands’ general election in March and the French presidential election in April and May.
But, despite populism’s seeming ubiquity, it is a hard concept to pin down. Populists are often intolerant of outsiders and those who are different; and yet Geert Wilders, the far-right Dutch populist leader, is a firm believer in gay rights. In the US, Trump’s presidential campaign was described as an anti-elite movement; and yet his administration is already practically a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, France, Granville, Netherlands, Populism, Project Syndicate, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 22. Februar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Some investors are selling French government debt over concerns the country could leave the eurozone
A poll on Monday showing French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen in the lead for April’s first round of the presidential election drove yields on French 10-year bonds to jump to 1.064%.
Investors are once again selling the bonds of Europe’s peripheral economies amid political concerns. This time around, France has joined the club.
Some investors are selling French government debt, worried that the country will elect Marine Le Pen as its president, a candidate that has promised to take the country out of the eurozone. That has left French bonds behaving increasingly like their peers in the parts of Europe hit hardest by the 2011-12 sovereign-debt crisis.
It is quite a flip for Europe’s second-largest economy. After that crisis, French bonds traded with Germany’s. On Monday, a poll showing Ms. Le Pen comfortably in the lead for April’s first round of the presidential election drove yields on French 10-year bonds to jump to 1.064%. Yields rise as bond prices fall. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: bond yields, Debt, Euro, France, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. Februar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON
Two front-runners agree that the defining issue is France’s membership of the eurozone
PARIS—What’s striking about the French presidential election is the extent to which the two front-runners share a basic analysis of the choice facing the country. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing National Front, and Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old former economy minister who quit François Hollande’s government to stand as an independent, are poles apart politically. But both agree that the defining issue is France’s membership of the eurozone.
Both point to the widening divergence between Germany and France’s economic performance during the past decade as evidence that the status quo isn’t sustainable. The National Front points to a recent International Monetary Fund study that suggested the euro is up to 15% undervalued in Germany and 6% overvalued in France as proof that France is at a competitive disadvantage. It argues that the only way France can remain a member of what one party official calls the “fixed eurozone exchange-rate regime” is to pursue an internal devaluation by cutting back on social protections and driving down wages. The alternative is to quit the eurozone. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: France, Le Pen, Macron, Nixon, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 16. Februar 2017
on February 13, 2017 RGE EconoMonitor
While the near term focus is political, the French and Italian election, any new government will face a series of problems that cannot be easily resolved, even if there is the will to tackle the political and economically difficult issues.
Defenders argue that Italy and France are large modern nations, with enviable economic pedigree. Italy and France are amongst the largest economies in the world.
Gross domestic product (“GDP”) per capita in 2015 is estimated at around US$35,000 and US$43,000. They have large populations, well-educated and productive workforce, well developed infrastructure as well as considerable economic and social capital. Both countries are major agricultural and industrial powers, strong in advanced technical products, luxury goods, food processing, pharmaceuticals and fashion. Both are major exporters and significant tourist destinations. France even has a favourable demographic outlook, with a birth rate just above replacement level mainly among its immigrant population. They are simply too large to fail. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Das, Europe, France, Italy, RGE Monitor | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 15. Februar 2017
Die Zusammenballung von Krisenprozessen bringt enorme politische Instabilität in den Kernländern des demokratischen Kapitalismus hervor. Deutlich wird dies auch am französischen Präsidentschaftswahlkampf, wo sich die meisten Prognosen als unzutreffend erwiesen haben.
In Frankreich finden am 23. April und 7. Mai 2017 Präsidentschaftswahlen statt. Einen Monat später, am 11. und am 18. Juni, wird die Nationalversammlung neu gewählt. Dieses Mal haben die Wahlen sowohl für Frankreich als auch für die EU eine weit über das übliche Maß hinausgehende Bedeutung. MAKROSKOP begleitet den Wahlkampf in mehreren Folgen. Wir ziehen eine Zwischenbilanz und werfen einen Blick auf den Shooting Star der Umfragen, Emmanuel Macron, sowie auf den Sieger der Vorwahlen bei den Sozialisten, Benoît Hamon.
Der Wahlkampf in Frankreich ist spannend wie ein Krimi und voller atemberaubender Wendungen. So siegte bei den Vorwahlen der Sozialistischen Partei (PS) entgegen allen Prognosen der Kandidat der Parteilinken, Benoît Hamon, über den langjährigen Ministerpräsidenten und Exponenten der neoliberalen Strömung der PS, Manuel Valls. Davor hatte schon François Hollande wegen miserabler Umfragewerte von sich aus auf eine erneute Kandidatur verzichtet – ein einmaliger Vorgang in der Geschichte der V. Republik. Die Wahl Hamons ist ein weiteres Symptom für die Krise der europäischen Sozialdemokratie, die jetzt auch die französische PS voll erfasst hat. Der Versuch, in Frankreich „Reformen“ nach deutschem Muster durchzuziehen, dürfte für die Partei in einem noch größeren Desaster enden, als es die SPD nach dem politischen Ende Schröders erlebte. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Europe, France, Hamon, Macron, Makroskop | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 9. Februar 2017
Kemal Derviş, former Minister of Economic Affairs of Turkey and former Administrator for the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), is a vice president of the Brookings Institution.
FEB 8, 2017 Project Syndicate
WASHINGTON, DC – Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Front, may be a charter member of what New America Senior Fellow Scott Malcomson calls the “Nationalist International.” But she is not the only “maverick” who is polling well in the run-up to her country’s presidential election this spring.
Emmanuel Macron is also a maverick, but of a very different type. After serving as Minister of the Economy, Industry, and Digital Affairs under French President François Hollande, he launched his own political movement, En Marche!, and is running for president as an independent. Macron is only 39, and has never been a party politician. As recently as three months ago, few observers gave him a chance. But he quickly assembled a strong team, and has rallied support among younger voters.
Macron has been polling around 20% for the election’s first round in April. That appears insufficient to advance to the election’s second round in May, when the top two candidates will face off to determine the winner. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Dervis, France, Macron, Maverick, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2017
Source: Foreign Affairs By Carlo Invernizzi Accetti
A New Political Dynamic Emerges
The upcoming French presidential election offers a primer on the turbulent politics of our times. We are witnessing the collapse of the traditional divide between left and right, as well as the parties associated with it. In its place, a new opposition is emerging between nationalist populism on one hand and liberal technocracy on the other. At stake is the very model of society—and democracy—that has been dominant in the West since the end of the Cold War.
French politics in the past few decades has been characterized by a relatively stable alternation in power between a center-right party (recently renamed the Republicans), standing for market liberalization and traditional social values, and its center-left rival (the Socialist Party), which stands for more social welfare and economic redistribution. While these two parties disagreed on the degree of state intervention in the economy, there was a basic consensus on the welfare-state model as well as on France’s commitment to European integration and multilateralism in international affairs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Foreign Affairs, France, Inclusion, Invernizzi Accetti, Liberal Democracy, Populism | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2017
Utterly disgusting! (R,C,)
Source: The New York Times
Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Front, began her bid for the presidency in Lyon on Sunday with a speech that mirrored themes expressed by President Trump.
LYON, France — The French far-right leader Marine Le Pen delivered a grim populist kickoff to her burgeoning presidential campaign on Sunday, warning thousands of her flag-waving supporters of “two totalitarianisms,” globalization and Islamism, that want to “subjugate France.”
Ms. Le Pen’s dark picture of a weakened France troubled by bureaucrats and burqas was a striking echo of themes being sounded across the Atlantic. France, a prosperous country with the world’s sixth-largest economy, was depicted as a besieged wreck. In a packed hall here, she made a point, in an hourlong speech brimming with nationalist fervor, of praising President Trump and the Americans who had elected him, as her supporters shouted forcefully, “This is our country!”
Americans, she said, had “kept faith with their national interest,” even as she promised to do the same for France, saying the French had been “dispossessed of their patriotism.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Europe, France, Globalization, Le Pen, Macron, NYT, Populism | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
The continent’s volatility index has contracts for April pricier than those farther out
Investors are betting on heightened volatility in Europe’s stock market during April, when the first round of the French presidential election—involving far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, above—takes place.
While calm has blanketed the U.S. stock market to a degree not seen in years, European investors are wagering on volatility ahead.
The CBOE Volatility Index, the VIX, which tracks expectations for price swings in U.S. equities, fell on Friday to 10.58, its lowest closing level since July 2014. Meanwhile, its European counterpart is signaling turmoil three months from now. Both measures tend to move in the opposite direction of their respective equity benchmarks. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Election, France, Le Pen | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 24. Januar 2017
Hugo Drochon, who teaches politics at the University of Cambridge, is the author of Nietzsche’s Great Politics.
JAN 23, 2017 Project Syndicate
CAMBRIDGE – François Fillon, a discreet and loyal former prime minister under former President Nicolas Sarkozy, is now the right-wing Republicans’ official nominee for the French presidential election this spring. In the party’s primary last November, early polling had predicted a win for Alain Juppé, a prime minister under Sarkozy’s predecessor, Jacques Chirac, and had put Fillon a distant third behind Sarkozy himself (who was seeking to stage a political comeback). When Fillon pulled out a surprise victory, many observers began to compare him to Donald Trump.
Fillon is a soft-spoken, reserved, and deeply devout Roman Catholic who lives in a small castle in his native province of Sarthe. He exhibits none of the brashness, vulgarity, and self-adoration currently emanating from Trump Tower in New York. But Fillon’s supporters have three things in common with Trump’s: rejection of liberal identity politics; opposition to “expertise” as a decisive component of politics and policymaking; and anxiety about loss of power and status in a country they once dominated. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Catholic Values, Drochon, Fillon, France, Project Syndicate, Trump | Leave a Comment »