Posted by hkarner - 19. März 2017
Source: DER SPIEGEL
‚I Am Offering the French Renewal‘
In an interview, French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron discusses his surprise political ascent, the desire of many for a new kind of politics and the necessity of widespread reforms in his country.
French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron
We’re on board the TGV 8434 train from Bordeaux to Paris. Emmanuel Macron, 39, the former economics minister and current presidential candidate is traveling in second class. The air is sticky in the compartment, in part because of the camera team that is accompanying Macron at each step of the campaign. With only five weeks to go before the first round of voting, the strain is visible.
Macron has become this campaign’s true sensation, rising from the status of outsider to becoming one of the candidates with the greatest prospects for election. His ascent has been helped by a scandal involving conservative candidate François Fillon, who is the subject of a criminal investigation by the public prosecutor’s office over allegations he used government money to pay his wife and children for jobs they never did.
Since the allegations surfaced, Macron has taken a lead over the candidate in polls going into the first round of voting on April 23. Right-wing populist Marine Le Pen also has only a slight lead over him, and it is likely that Macron would have a clear lead on the Front National leader in a run-off vote. If he prevails, Macron would become France’s youngest-ever president.
During his interview with SPIEGEL during the train ride, Macron looked a little fatigued from the campaign, but he remained attentive and concentrated throughout. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: France, Macron, Spiegel | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 18. März 2017
Bernard-Henri Lévy is one of the founders of the “Nouveaux Philosophes” (New Philosophers) movement. His books include Left in Dark Times: A Stand Against the New Barbarism, American Vertigo: Traveling America in the Footsteps of Tocqueville, and most recently, The Genius of Judaism.
MAR 17, 2017 Project Syndicate
PARIS – The “hunger games” aspect of this French election cycle began on the left. President François Hollande was brought down by his own Socialist Party. Hollande’s prime minister, Manuel Valls, became the second course at the cannibals’ banquet.
By then, the corpse of one of France’s two major parties, no longer merely supine, had reached an advanced state of decomposition. Now, at the very moment when one might expect a presidential candidate to tell the nation what he thinks of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Islamic radicals, the Socialist candidate, the wan Benoît Hamon, finds nothing better to talk about than legal marijuana, red sludge, and endocrine disruptors. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: France, Le Pen, Levy, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. März 2017
Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.
MAR 16, 2017 Project Syndicate
BRUSSELS – What does the eurozone’s future hold? It depends where you look. Some economic indicators suggest that things are looking up for the common currency’s survival; for example, employment has returned to its pre-crisis peak, and per capita GDP growth exceeded that of the United States last year. At the same time, political risks seem to be increasing, despite the improvements in Europe’s economy.
The evidence of an increasing risk of a eurozone breakup comes from three different indicators. But closer examination of those indicators suggests that, while the longer-term risks remain substantial, the short-term risks are rather low. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: ECB, Euro, Europe, France, Gros, Italy, Project Syndicate, Target | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 13. März 2017
Yves here. This post drills into some of the claims made about the advantages of France leaving the Eurozone, as in a Frexit, and finds many of them wanting. Reader input and reactions are very much encouraged.
From my vantage, author Grégory Claeys needs to get up to speed on Modern Monetary Theory. His third concern, regarding how much deficit spending France could do, is based on the misapprehension that France would need to borrow to run deficits. He’s thus managed to miss the big point of exiting the Euro: as a monetarily sovereign nation, French deficit spending would be limited by the need to avoid generating too much inflation, which in turn reflects how much demand needs to be created to employ otherwise slack resources.
The flip side is his final point focuses on the economic dislocation of a Frexit. As we, aided by many bank IT experts, in particular Clive but also seasoned members of the commentariat, have stressed, the technology implementation of a new currency is a very long lead time process due to the fact that:
1. There is tons of code involved, including lots of legacy code that can only be inspected and changed line by line
2. There are numerous parties involved. Any task requiring coordination is far more cumbersome and time consuming than one that can be accomplished internally
3. Banks are already very thinly staffed in their IT areas and the guys who know their way around the legacy code have been and are continuing to retire, which does not bode well for banks and other financial players being able to mobilize enough resources even if they decided to throw a lot of budget dollars at it
By Grégory Claeys, an Associate Professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers in Paris where he is teaching macroeconomics in the Master of Finance. He previously taught undergraduate macroeconomics at Sciences Po in Paris. Originally published at Bruegel Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Bruegel, Claeys, France, Frexit, Naked Capitalism, Smith | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2017
Der unabhängig Kandidat für die französische Präsidentschaftswahl, Emmanuel Macron, legt morgen sein Wirtschaftsprogramm vor. In einem Interview hat er schon einmal die Leitlinien vorgezeichnet. Sie sind weit weniger konservativ als von den meisten erwartet.
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Flassbeck, France, Macron, Makroskop | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 26. Februar 2017
Source: Project Syndicate
Brigitte Granville is Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy at the School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London. She is the author of Remembering Inflation and a forthcoming book on the French predicament on the eve of the country’s presidential and parliamentary elections in 2017.
PARIS – For at least the past year, populism has been wreaking havoc on Western democracies. Populist forces – parties, leaders, and ideas – underpinned the “Leave” campaign’s victory in the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States. Now, populism lurks ominously in the background of the Netherlands’ general election in March and the French presidential election in April and May.
But, despite populism’s seeming ubiquity, it is a hard concept to pin down. Populists are often intolerant of outsiders and those who are different; and yet Geert Wilders, the far-right Dutch populist leader, is a firm believer in gay rights. In the US, Trump’s presidential campaign was described as an anti-elite movement; and yet his administration is already practically a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, France, Granville, Netherlands, Populism, Project Syndicate, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 22. Februar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Some investors are selling French government debt over concerns the country could leave the eurozone
A poll on Monday showing French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen in the lead for April’s first round of the presidential election drove yields on French 10-year bonds to jump to 1.064%.
Investors are once again selling the bonds of Europe’s peripheral economies amid political concerns. This time around, France has joined the club.
Some investors are selling French government debt, worried that the country will elect Marine Le Pen as its president, a candidate that has promised to take the country out of the eurozone. That has left French bonds behaving increasingly like their peers in the parts of Europe hit hardest by the 2011-12 sovereign-debt crisis.
It is quite a flip for Europe’s second-largest economy. After that crisis, French bonds traded with Germany’s. On Monday, a poll showing Ms. Le Pen comfortably in the lead for April’s first round of the presidential election drove yields on French 10-year bonds to jump to 1.064%. Yields rise as bond prices fall. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: bond yields, Debt, Euro, France, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. Februar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON
Two front-runners agree that the defining issue is France’s membership of the eurozone
PARIS—What’s striking about the French presidential election is the extent to which the two front-runners share a basic analysis of the choice facing the country. Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing National Front, and Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old former economy minister who quit François Hollande’s government to stand as an independent, are poles apart politically. But both agree that the defining issue is France’s membership of the eurozone.
Both point to the widening divergence between Germany and France’s economic performance during the past decade as evidence that the status quo isn’t sustainable. The National Front points to a recent International Monetary Fund study that suggested the euro is up to 15% undervalued in Germany and 6% overvalued in France as proof that France is at a competitive disadvantage. It argues that the only way France can remain a member of what one party official calls the “fixed eurozone exchange-rate regime” is to pursue an internal devaluation by cutting back on social protections and driving down wages. The alternative is to quit the eurozone. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: France, Le Pen, Macron, Nixon, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 16. Februar 2017
on February 13, 2017 RGE EconoMonitor
While the near term focus is political, the French and Italian election, any new government will face a series of problems that cannot be easily resolved, even if there is the will to tackle the political and economically difficult issues.
Defenders argue that Italy and France are large modern nations, with enviable economic pedigree. Italy and France are amongst the largest economies in the world.
Gross domestic product (“GDP”) per capita in 2015 is estimated at around US$35,000 and US$43,000. They have large populations, well-educated and productive workforce, well developed infrastructure as well as considerable economic and social capital. Both countries are major agricultural and industrial powers, strong in advanced technical products, luxury goods, food processing, pharmaceuticals and fashion. Both are major exporters and significant tourist destinations. France even has a favourable demographic outlook, with a birth rate just above replacement level mainly among its immigrant population. They are simply too large to fail. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Das, Europe, France, Italy, RGE Monitor | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 15. Februar 2017
Die Zusammenballung von Krisenprozessen bringt enorme politische Instabilität in den Kernländern des demokratischen Kapitalismus hervor. Deutlich wird dies auch am französischen Präsidentschaftswahlkampf, wo sich die meisten Prognosen als unzutreffend erwiesen haben.
In Frankreich finden am 23. April und 7. Mai 2017 Präsidentschaftswahlen statt. Einen Monat später, am 11. und am 18. Juni, wird die Nationalversammlung neu gewählt. Dieses Mal haben die Wahlen sowohl für Frankreich als auch für die EU eine weit über das übliche Maß hinausgehende Bedeutung. MAKROSKOP begleitet den Wahlkampf in mehreren Folgen. Wir ziehen eine Zwischenbilanz und werfen einen Blick auf den Shooting Star der Umfragen, Emmanuel Macron, sowie auf den Sieger der Vorwahlen bei den Sozialisten, Benoît Hamon.
Der Wahlkampf in Frankreich ist spannend wie ein Krimi und voller atemberaubender Wendungen. So siegte bei den Vorwahlen der Sozialistischen Partei (PS) entgegen allen Prognosen der Kandidat der Parteilinken, Benoît Hamon, über den langjährigen Ministerpräsidenten und Exponenten der neoliberalen Strömung der PS, Manuel Valls. Davor hatte schon François Hollande wegen miserabler Umfragewerte von sich aus auf eine erneute Kandidatur verzichtet – ein einmaliger Vorgang in der Geschichte der V. Republik. Die Wahl Hamons ist ein weiteres Symptom für die Krise der europäischen Sozialdemokratie, die jetzt auch die französische PS voll erfasst hat. Der Versuch, in Frankreich „Reformen“ nach deutschem Muster durchzuziehen, dürfte für die Partei in einem noch größeren Desaster enden, als es die SPD nach dem politischen Ende Schröders erlebte. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Europe, France, Hamon, Macron, Makroskop | Leave a Comment »