Posted by hkarner - 29. April 2017
Mark Roe is a professor at Harvard Law School. He is the author of studies of the impact of politics on corporate organization and corporate governance in the United States and around the world.
APR 28, 2017 Project Syndicate
CAMBRIDGE – The liberal West heaved a collective sigh of relief when the results of the first round of the French presidential election came in. After leading in the polls for weeks, Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front ended up in second place, while Emmanuel Macron, a centrist political independent, finished first. Macron, the fresh face of Europe’s democratic center at just 39 years old, is expected to prevail handily in the second-round runoff on May 7.
With Macron’s victory in France following Dutch voters’ rejection of the right-wing populist Geert Wilders earlier this year, most observers are treating the result as another rebuke to the populist revolt that fueled the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum and US President Donald Trump’s election in 2016. Many seem convinced that the populist tide has crested. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Establishment, France, Populism, Project Syndicate, Roe, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 26. April 2017
PARIS – I vividly remember French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s first appearance on television. It was just before the 2002 presidential campaign, and I had to moderate a debate on French public television. For political balance, we needed a representative of the far-right National Front (FN), then led by Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. Bruno Gollnisch, the manager of Jean-Marie’s campaign and his heir apparent, turned us down, offering to send Marine instead.
It was obviously a trick played not just on a media viewed as hostile, but also on Le Pen herself – a rival whom Gollnisch resented for having been, in his view, unduly promoted by her father in the FN apparatus. Le Pen was a largely unknown 33-year-old lawyer with little practice, though she had an obvious instinct for the punch line. In the end, Gollnisch’s plan may have backfired: a few days after Le Pen’s appearance, the headline in a weekly magazine read, “What is new with the FN? Marine!” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: France, Le Pen, Ockrent, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 26. April 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Emmanuel Macron’s rise as heavy favorite in race spurs investors to set aside political worries
The ascension of centrist Emmanuel Macron as the heavy favorite in France’s presidential race spurred investors to set aside the political worries that have long plagued European markets and to make new bets on economic growth.
Mr. Macron is now seen as the leader in May 7’s runoff against second-place finisher Marine Le Pen, whose pledge to dismantle the euro had damped prices of euro assets and the common currency itself.
The former investment banker’s good showing sent stocks and the euro sharply higher while triggering a sharp selloff in German government bonds, which investors had bought as a haven from populist politicians such as Ms. Le Pen. Mr. Macron won the first round with 24% of the vote, according to an official tally, ahead of Ms. Le Pen with 21.3%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: France, Growth, Macron, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017
Dank an H.F.
2017 04 24 Asia Times, By Pepe Escobar April 24, 2017 9:54 PM (UTC+8)
What’s supposed to be the shock of the new is not exactly so.
Here’s the body count in the latest geopolitical earthquake afflicting the West: The Socialist Party in France is dead. The traditional Right is comatose. What used to be the Extreme Left is alive, and still kicking.
Yet what’s supposed to be the shock of the new is not exactly a shock. The more things veer towards change (we can believe in), the more they stay the same. Enter the new normal: the recycled “system” – as in Emmanuel Macron — versus “the people” — as in the National Front’s Marine Le Pen, battling for the French presidency on May 7.
Although that was the expected outcome, it’s still significant. Le Pen, re-christened “Marine”, reached the second round of voting despite a mediocre campaign.
She essentially reassembled — but did not expand — her voting base. I have argued on Asia Times that Macron is nothing but an artificial product, a meticulously packaged hologram designed to sell an illusion. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Asia Times, Clinton, Escobar, France, Le Pen, Macron, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017
Dominique Moisi is Senior Counselor at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. He is the author of La Géopolitique des Séries ou le triomphe de la peur.
APR 25, 2017, Project Syndicate
PARIS – Relief and pride are the main emotions many French citizens are feeling after the first round of the French presidential election, in which Emmanuel Macron finished first. For once, the pollsters were right: the two favored candidates – Macron and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen – advanced to the second-round runoff on May 7. Gone is the sense of anxiety that had attended the weeks, days, and hours before the election, owing to fears that France would wake up to a second-round choice between the far-right Le Pen and the far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Many observers saw France as economically, socially, and politically vulnerable – even more so than the United Kingdom, the United States, or Germany – to such a choice. After the UK’s Brexit vote and Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, surely this was Le Pen’s window of opportunity. Some of us, only half-jokingly, have even mused about where we would flee if Le Pen won. Between a Great Britain that is leaving the European Union, and a US under Trump, there are few good options. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: France, Macron, Moisi, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2017
24. April 2017, 09:57 derstandard.at
Unter Finanzmarktexperten sorgte der Ausgang des ersten Wahlgangs für Erleichterung, der Euro reagiert vorübergehend mit Kursgewinnen
Berlin – Emmanuel Macron und Marine Le Pen treten am 7. Mai in der Stichwahl um das Amt des französischen Präsidenten an. Unter Finanzmarktexperten sorgte der Ausgang des ersten Wahlgangs für Erleichterung – sie hatten eine Stichwahl zwischen den Euro-Gegnern Le Pen und Mélenchon gefürchtet. D
er Euro reagierte vorübergehend mit Kursgewinnen und erreichte gegenüber dem Dollar den höchsten Wert seit gut fünf Monaten. Am Montag-Früh hat die Gemeinschaftswährung wieder etwas von den starken Gewinnen abgegeben. In der Früh kostete ein Euro 1,0856 US-Dollar. Nach Veröffentlichung der Hochrechnung im ersten Wahlgang der Präsidentschaftswahlen war der Kurs der Gemeinschaftswährung zeitweise bis auf 1,0937 Dollar gestiegen und damit auf den höchsten Stand seit November. Am Montag haben sich auch die 10-Jahresrenditen für das Land deutlich erholt. Mit 0,791 Prozent wurde der niedrigste und damit für Frankreich für die Refinanzierung günstigste Wert seit 12. Jänner erzielt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: France, Macron, Standard, Structural Reform | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2017
Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of the new book The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.
APR 24, 2017 Project Syndicate
PRINCETON – The centrist Emmanuel Macron’s success in the first round of the French presidential election is likely to re-energize Europe. Unlike the other candidates, Macron does not just recognize the need for radical change to the European Union; he supports bringing it through Europe-wide cooperation. But Macron’s plurality of the popular vote was narrow, and a much larger share of French voters showed support for a very different political vision.
It is a vision of nostalgia and isolation espoused by Macron’s rival in the second round, the far-right National Front’s Marine Le Pen. Her slogan – “on est chez nous” (we are at home) – underscores her focus on enclosing France in a national cocoon that resists “wild globalization.”
But Le Pen was not alone in promoting this vision. One of the candidates who finished fourth, the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, also built his candidacy on simplistic economic populism. For example, like Le Pen, he promised a radical reduction in the retirement age, without explaining how to finance it.
And both appealed to Germanophobia, focusing on the European debt crisis and Germany’s insistence on austerity. Le Pen accuses Macron of aspiring to be Vice-Chancellor of Europe, under German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while proudly declaring herself to be the “anti-Merkel.” Mélenchon claims that Germany is motivated by radical individualism, neoliberalism, and the economic interests of an aging population. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Euro, Europe, France, James, Macron, Project Syndicate, Target | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2017
The thought of President Le Pen is so terrifying, it seems, posing such a threat to the future of Europe, that it remains for many a possibility they dare not entertain, much less plan for. But that threat is precisely why Europe must address seriously the possibility of her winning, however unlikely it may seem.
LONDON – After the United Kingdom’s unexpected vote to leave the European Union and Donald Trump’s unexpected triumph in the US presidential election last year, you might imagine that Europe’s chancelleries have developed detailed contingency plans for a victory by the far-right National Front’s Marine Le Pen in France’s presidential election. You’d be wrong.
There is no doubt that, as President of France, Le Pen could do serious damage to the European project. She has positioned herself as the antithesis of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and pledged to leave the EU’s border-free Schengen Area and the eurozone. As for the EU itself, she promises to follow in the UK’s footsteps, renegotiating the terms of her country’s membership, and then calling a referendum on the agreement. If the EU rejects the reforms Le Pen demands, she will campaign for a French exit. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, France, Le Pen, Leonard, Project Syndicate, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 18. April 2017
Zaki Laïdi, Professor of International Relations at L’Institut d’études politiques de Paris (Sciences Po), was a political adviser to French Prime Minister Manuel Valls. His most recent book is Le reflux de l’Europe.
APR 17, 2017 Project Syndicate
PARIS – In a few weeks, France will elect its next president. Given the French executive’s considerable powers, including the authority to dissolve the National Assembly, the presidential election, held every five years, is France’s most important. But the stakes are higher than ever this time.
The two frontrunners are the far-right National Front’s Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, who served as economy minister under Socialist President François Hollande, but is running as an independent. If, as expected, Le Pen and Macron face off in the election’s second round on May 7, it will be a political watershed for France: the first time in 60 years that the main parties of the left and the right are not represented in the second round. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: France, Laidi, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 3. April 2017
Source: The Economist
Marine Le Pen’s nationalism meets the unrepentant globalism of Emmanuel
Two against the EU
WHAT did Marine Le Pen, the head of France’s National Front, expect to gain by visiting Moscow on March 24th? Her core supporters relished seeing her with Vladimir Putin, a strong woman standing next to a strongman. Ms Le Pen came away claiming that the world now belongs to nationalist populists such as Mr Putin, Donald Trump, India’s Narendra Modi and, implicitly, herself. Interestingly, the visit did not seem aimed at the usual goal of candidates who go abroad: reassuring voters that they can safely be trusted with foreign policy.
In French campaigns, gravitas-enhancing trips beyond the Hexagone (as mainland France is known) are especially popular with candidates who have little experience of governing. This year Ms Le Pen has been to America (where she was seen sipping coffee in Trump Tower in New York), Germany, Lebanon and Chad. Emmanuel Macron, the young centrist who is tied with her for first place in the polls, has been to Algeria, Britain, Germany, Jordan and Lebanon, in part to reach out to expat voters and donors. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economist, France, Globalization, Le Pen, Macron | Leave a Comment »