Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Brexit’

The debate over a second Brexit referendum

Posted by hkarner - 19. Januar 2019

Date: 18-01-2019
Source: The Economist

How Britain embraced referendums, the tool of dictators and demagogues

We can go from “the people’s vote” to “a people’s veto,” says Robert Saunders of Queen Mary University of London

With the possible exceptions of race, sex and Theresa May’s dancing, no subject has inspired more hysteria in British politics than the referendum.

In 1945 Clement Attlee denounced it as “alien to all our traditions” and an “instrument of Nazism”. Harold Wilson, the prime minister who would hold Britain’s first national referendum in 1975, had previously dismissed the idea as “contrary to our traditions” and “not a way in which we can do business”, scoffing that a referendum would probably abolish the income tax. His Conservative opponent, Margaret Thatcher, called the referendum “a device of dictators and demagogues” that would be dangerous to minorities and destructive of parliamentary sovereignty. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A ‘No Deal’ Brexit Can Save the European Union

Posted by hkarner - 19. Januar 2019

Date: 18-01-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Joseph C. Sternberg

For the bloc to retain its democratic legitimacy, it must let the British have what they voted for. 

Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn speaks in Hastings, U.K., Jan. 17.

The European Union is often accused of being an undemocratic conspiracy against its common people. Tell that to the British, who are discovering to their chagrin that sometimes the EU gives voters exactly what they say they want.

This week witnessed another few turns in the Brexit psychodrama. The House of Commons directly rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s preferred exit plan and the next day indirectly rebuked Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn for providing pathetic opposition to Mrs. May. Fine. This is how a parliamentary democracy works. If no majority of lawmakers can coalesce around a Brexit plan, they shouldn’t be making one.

Which is where the unheralded democracy kicks in. Underlying this political fiasco—the years of unsatisfactory negotiations with Brussels, the cabinet infighting in the U.K., the high-profile political resignations, the humiliating legislative defeats—is one reality. The U.K. is on track to leave the EU March 29 in the cleanest way possible, without any deal binding the country back into the bloc. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit: Blame it on the banking crisis

Posted by hkarner - 19. Januar 2019

Nicholas Crafts 15 January 2019, vox.eu

Professor of Economics and Economic History at the University of Warwick and CEPR

The banking crisis of ten years ago was a serious policy failure (Independent Commission on Banking 2011). Leverage increased dramatically from the late 1980s to the crisis while loss-absorbing equity capital was inadequate. Regulation that addressed these issues could have maintained financial stability at minimal cost to economic growth (Miles et al. 2013).

The banking crisis was damaging in many ways, most obviously through the output and fiscal costs of the recessionary shock that it imposed on the economy. The key point for the argument of this column is that it reduced the level of potential output in the economy and accordingly raised the structural budget deficit. This effect comes through decreases in capital, human capital and total factor productivity. A conventional estimate might be that the crisis of ten years ago probably reduced the level of potential output in the UK by somewhere between 3.8% and 7.5% (Table 1).

Table 1 Estimates of the impact of the banking crisis on the level of UK potential output (% GDP) Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The great rescrambling of Britain’s parties

Posted by hkarner - 18. Januar 2019

Date: 17-01-2019
Source: The Economist: Bagehot

The country may be headed for a repeat of the 1850s

PEOPLE HAVE been talking about the collapse of the British party system for decades. Now it may actually be under way. The government has lost its authority. Parties are dissolving into factions. Factions are forming left-right alliances. Backbenchers are seizing the limelight while frontbenchers are hiding in the bushes.

Theresa May’s historic defeat on January 15th showed how far the disintegration on the right has gone. Just 40 Tories who are not on the government payroll voted in favour of the deal; 118 Tories voted against it. Now the focus is shifting to the left. Having lost the vote of no confidence in the government—and hence his chance of engineering a general election anytime soon—Jeremy Corbyn will face mounting pressure to call for a second referendum. This will expose deep divisions within his party: between Remain-supporting middle-classes and the Leave-supporting workers; between Labour’s high command and the bulk of its activists; and between Mr Corbyn, who dislikes the idea of another vote, and his chancellor, John McDonnell, who is more open to it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit, mother of all messes

Posted by hkarner - 18. Januar 2019

Date: 17-01-2019
Source: The Economist

Solving the crisis will need time—and a second referendum

No plan by any modern British government has been so soundly thrashed as the Brexit deal thrown out by Parliament on January 15th. The withdrawal agreement, the centrepiece of Theresa May’s premiership, which she has spent nearly two years hammering out with the European Union, was rejected after five days’ debate by 432 votes to 202. Her own Conservative bankbenchers voted against her by three to one.

The mother of parliaments is suffering the mother of all constitutional crises. Three years ago, in the biggest poll in the country’s history, Britons voted in a referendum to leave the eu. Yet Parliament, freshly elected a year later by those same voters, has judged the terms of exit unacceptable. The eu shows little willingness to renegotiate. The prime minister ploughs obdurately on. And if this puzzle cannot be solved by March 29th, Britain will fall out with no deal at all.

To avoid that catastrophe, the priority must be to ask the eu for more time. But even with the clock on their side, mps seem unlikely to agree on a solution to Brexit’s great riddle: what exit terms, if any, truly satisfy the will of the people? With every week in which mps fail to answer this question, it becomes clearer that the people themselves must decide, in a second referendum. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Theresa May Survival Guide

Posted by hkarner - 18. Januar 2019

Date: 17-01-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

No one else wants to take the political risks of Brexit.

British Prime Minister Theresa May

Say what you will about Theresa May—and you might as well because everyone else has—the British Prime Minister can take a punch. On Wednesday she survived a no-confidence vote in Parliament, 325-306, only 24 hours after the same body crushed her Brexit deal with the European Union.

It’s easy to lose sight of how bizarre this is. By rights she should have resigned. Obviously she no longer enjoys the confidence of her own party, let alone all of Parliament.

Yet even the 118 Conservatives who opposed her EU deal supported her as PM, as did the 10 members of the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party who prop up her government but also opposed her on Brexit. These folks enjoy griping from the sidelines about Brexit policy, but no one else wants to catch the spears that go with being in charge of the process.

The opposition Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn is no better. Mr. Corbyn triggered Wednesday’s vote as a gambit to force a new national election that he hopes to win. His real priority is a socialist agenda for reshaping Britain’s domestic economy. Privately he seems to support Brexit. Publicly his views are a muddle. That doomed his confidence motion, as moderates recoil from his economic agenda and no one trusts him to be an honest broker. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Run Down the Brexit Clock

Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2019

I am not so sure about Varoufakis‘ sense of reality. He has not proven it while himself being in politics! (hfk)

Yanis Varoufakis, a former finance minister of Greece, is Professor of Economics at the University of Athens.

The terrifying prospect of a no-deal Brexit on March 29 remains in play after the British Parliament emphatically rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement with the EU. Although it is tempting to reset the clock and give negotiations more time, that instinct must be resisted.

ATHENS – The overwhelming defeat that Britain’s Parliament inflicted upon Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan was fresh confirmation that there is no substitute for democracy. Members of Parliament deserve congratulations for keeping their cool in the face of a made-up deadline. That deadline is the reason why Brexit is proving so hard and potentially so damaging. To resolve Brexit, that artificial deadline must be removed altogether, not merely re-set. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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U.K. Finds a Faulty Shipping Safety Net for Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 9. Januar 2019

Date: 08-01-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The government is racing the clock with contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit, but shipping companies say there are no easy solutions in supply chains
Trucks parked waiting to be loaded at the Port of Dover, England. The U.K. government is scrambling to prevent a logistics nightmare if a hard Brexit, in which the U.K. government separates from the European Union without an agreement on trade and border controls, occurs.

British policy makers are calling on the shipping industry to bail the country out from the mess that Brexit has become.

It isn’t going to happen, however, for at least a year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Future Is Up to Us

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2019

Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier is a former vice president of the European Commission and French Minister of Foreign Affairs. He is currently EU chief negotiator for Brexit.

As 2019 begins, many in the Europe Union are no doubt feeling a sense of despair in the face of mounting environmental, economic, and political threats. But by focusing on four key priorities in the coming year, EU leaders could start to put the European project back on track.

BRUSSELS – Not far from my Brussels office, there is a large fresco with the inscription, “The Future Is Europe.” Once a deeply held truth among most Europeans, this belief is being increasingly challenged today.

Of course, pessimism comes easy nowadays. While the damaging effects of climate change are playing out before our eyes, the United States’ choice of unilateralism, the rise of China, and escalating geopolitical tensions elsewhere are posing new challenges to European prosperity and security. So, too, does the spread of disinformation and terrorist attacks in the heart of our cities, as we saw again this Christmas season in Strasbourg, France.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Britain’s political landscape has been shaped by patient politicians

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2019

Date: 04-01-2019
Source: The Economist: Bagehot

How tortoises triumphed over the hares

Over the coming weeks the British will have plenty of chances to reflect on Harold Wilson’s dictum that “a week is a long time in politics”. As mps debate Theresa May’s Brexit deal the future of the country will seem to hang on a tide-turning speech or a high-profile defection. But in fact high-speed politics will be a testimony to the importance of low-speed politics: the political landscape has been created by patient men who thought in terms of decades rather than weeks.

For most of their lives Brexiteers have been dismissed by the establishment as irritating protuberances who got in the way of good government. John Major called them “bastards”. Other choice epithets include “the barmy army” and “swivel-eyed loons”. They forged on regardless, convinced that they would be judged in the light of history rather than the next day’s newspapers. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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