Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Brexit’

How Britain Could Change Its Mind About Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2018

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

Nigel Farage, the former UK Independence Party leader, now says that the June 2016 Brexit referendum could be overturned. He’s right, and the first requirement is to dispel the aura of inevitability surrounding Britain’s withdrawal from Europe.

LONDON – Will 2018 be the year when the United Kingdom changes its mind about leaving the European Union? Conventional wisdom says that stopping Brexit is impossible. But what did conventional wisdom say about Donald Trump? Or Emmanuel Macron? Or, for that matter, the original Brexit referendum? In revolutionary times, events can go from impossible to inevitable without ever passing through improbable. Brexit was such an event, and its reversal could be another.

Just ask Nigel Farage, the former UK Independence Party leader, who has suddenly said that the June 2016 Brexit referendum could be overturned. “The Remain side are making all the running,” Farage warned his fellow hardline Leavers this weekend. “They have a majority in parliament, and unless we get ourselves organized we could lose the historic victory that was Brexit.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Our historic Brexit vote could be reversed, admits Nigel Farage

Posted by hkarner - 14. Januar 2018

Date: 14-01-2018
Source: The Guardian

Remainers ‘are making all the running’ and could swing a vote in parliament, former Ukip leader warns

 Nigel Farage today makes a dramatic admission that the vote for Brexit could be overturned because Remainers have seized control of the argument over Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

The former Ukip leader told the Observer that he was becoming increasingly worried that the Leave camp had stopped fighting their corner, leaving a well-funded and organised Remain operation free to influence the political and public debate without challenge.

“The Remain side are making all the running,” said Farage. “They have a majority in parliament, and unless we get ourselves organised we could lose the historic victory that was Brexit.”

On Thursday Farage angered many Brexiters, and many in Ukip, when he said he was coming round to the view that the country might need to hold a second referendum in order to close down the EU argument for good.

He said then that he believed such a vote would see the Brexit side win with a bigger majority than the one it achieved on 23 June 2016, when it triumphed by 52% to 48%. But, speaking on Friday, Farage appeared to change his tune, making clear that he was seriously worried that Brexit could be undone and reversed. The case for a complete break from the EU was no longer being made, even by pro-Brexit MPs in parliament, he said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Into the Brexit Abyss

Posted by hkarner - 28. Dezember 2017

Dominique Moisi is Senior Counselor at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. He is the author of La Géopolitique des Séries ou le triomphe de la peur.

For the UK, anything short of complete separation from the EU would be akin to the situation in which France found itself after withdrawing from NATO’s military command in 1966. Until France reversed that decision in 2009, it remained bound by the constraints of other NATO members, but lacked any say in political or military decisions.

PARIS – I have a British friend who never travels without his Irish passport, at least not since June 2016, when the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. “Just in case,” he likes to say. “You never know what may happen.”

Ever since Brexit, the Irish passport has become something of an insurance policy against irrationality, and represents, for my friend at least, the possibility of retaining his European identity. If things turn out badly in London, he reasons, there is always Dublin.

Hedging has become a favored approach of those seeking to make sense of the British divorce from the EU. The agreement reached this month between UK and EU negotiators has only heightened the unease. On the one hand, that “breakthrough” set the stage for talks on the post-Brexit relationship trade to commence, seemingly making separation inevitable. On the other hand, there is a belief that nothing is set in stone, and that finality will come only after many thorny issues are resolved. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Fake Brexit or No Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 22. Dezember 2017

Once again: a brilliant Kaletsky! I hope he is right! (hfk)

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

If a hard Brexit is economically unacceptable to British business and Parliament, a soft Brexit is politically unacceptable to EU leaders, and a fake Brexit is unacceptable to almost everyone, just one alternative remains: no Brexit. That would mean revoking Britain’s withdrawal notice under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union.

LONDON – Since last year’s Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom has been likened to a suicide who jumps off a 100-storey building and, as he falls past the 50th floor, shouts “so far, so good.” This comparison is unfair to suicides. The real economic and political message today is “so far, so bad.”

The “deal” to begin negotiations for a post-Brexit relationship, announced at the EU summit on December 15, followed Prime Minister Theresa May’s capitulation on all of the demands made by European leaders: €50 billion ($59 billion) of budget contributions, European court jurisdiction over the rights of EU citizens in Britain, and a permanently open border with Ireland. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit und die Wirtschaft: Der Abstieg hat begonnen

Posted by hkarner - 18. Dezember 2017

Großbritannien spürt die Folgen des anstehenden EU-Ausstiegs. Die Wirtschaft lahmt, die Preise steigen. Lässt sich der Brexit doch noch rückgängig machen?

Eine Kolumne von

Im Englischen gibt es ein paar deutsche Lehnwörter, die ein nicht eben schmeichelhaftes Licht auf uns werfen. Schadenfreude gehört dazu. Ebenso Katzenjammer. Und natürlich Angst. All diese Worte sind fehl am Platz, wenn es um den Brexit geht.

Der britische Ausstieg aus der EU ist eine Tragödie. Ein politisches Schockereignis, das eigentlich nie hätte stattfinden dürfen. Doch so wird es wohl geschehen: Mit knapper Mehrheit per Volksabstimmung bei geringer Wahlbeteiligung entschieden, ist Britannien auf dem Weg, die EU zu verlassen. Etwa die Hälfte der Verhandlungsfrist ist bereits verstrichen. Was am Ende dabei herauskommt, ist offen.

Nach wie vor ist ein harter Brexit möglich, also ein Ausstieg Britanniens ohne Abkommen mit der EU – womöglich in heftigem Streit, mit offenen Rechnungen und zerbrochenem Porzellan. Aber immerhin: In der abgelaufenen Woche sind die Chancen auf eine freundschaftliche Trennung gestiegen. Der EU-Gipfel hat die Weichen gestellt, sodass die zweite Phase der Brexit-Verhandlungen beginnen kann. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The dogs that didn’t bark

Posted by hkarner - 16. Dezember 2017

Date: 14-12-2017
Source: The Economist

Why are Brexiteers so quiet about Theresa May’s concessions to Brussels?

Despite a big exit bill and concessions on European judges and the Irish border, Brexit hardliners have kept mum

IT HAS been an up and down week for Theresa May. On December 11th the prime minister basked as pro- and anti-Brexit Tories alike cheered the deal that she had secured on the first phase of Britain’s Article 50 divorce from the European Union. But two days later, as she prepared to head back to Brussels to get an EU summit to approve the deal, Mrs May suffered her first big parliamentary defeat, when 11 of her own MPs joined the opposition to amend the EU withdrawal bill.

Mrs May deserved praise for pushing the Article 50 process forward. Yet it is surprising that Brexiteers were so loud in their approval of the deal. Mrs May has blurred many of their red lines. She accepted a bigger exit bill than they originally envisaged. The agreement on the future rights of EU citizens in Britain gives the European Court of Justice (ECJ) a say for eight years after Brexit. The agreement to avoid a hard border in Ireland implies full alignment with most single market rules. And Brussels insists that transition entails accepting all EU laws plus the ECJ. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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What Does the Brexit Deal Mean for The City of London and Wall Street Banks?

Posted by hkarner - 11. Dezember 2017

Date: 09-12-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Bankers push for more clarity as the U.K. moves into the next phase of Brexit negotiations

The U.K. and the European Union Friday reached a deal on the opening terms in their Brexit negotiations. What does that mean for London’s finance industry?

Not a ton. “It doesn’t do anything concrete,” said Joe Cassidy, a partner at consultancy KPMG. “All this does is allows us to move onto the next stage of the discussion.”

But the next stage includes two important things for the City of London: First, an agreement on a transition period that would maintain regulatory certainty over several years as businesses adjust after Brexit, and second, a potential EU-U.K. free-trade agreement for financial services.

Transition Deal Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2017

Giancarlo Corsetti

Giancarlo Corsetti is Professor of Economics at Cambridge University.

Meredith A. Crowley is Professor of Economics at Cambridge University.

With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

CAMBRIDGE – As the United Kingdom negotiates the terms of its divorce from the European Union, it would be wise for the country’s leaders to begin looking further into the future to determine what approach to international trade relations would serve it best. Does the UK really want to hang its future on bilateral agreements with a long list of individual trade partners? Or would it be better off joining existing mega-regional free-trade agreements, while working to strengthen the global multilateral system under the World Trade Organization?

The bilateral approach would demand a huge amount of time and resources, with UK negotiators engaging in a series of discussions with each and every country with which they wanted to do business. The end result would be a tangled network of deals that would only exacerbate the balkanization of the international trading system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Surely, these supersmart Brexiteers knew all this when they voted for Brexit!

Posted by hkarner - 2. Dezember 2017

Date: 30-11-2017
Source: The Economist
Subject: Deal or no deal?

The siren song of a no-deal Brexit

The government’s slow conceding of ground is giving new life to the delusion that it would be better just to walk out

ALL the signs are that Britain is caving in on the three issues in the first phase of the Brexit talks. Theresa May was told she had to yield by next week to persuade the European Union summit on December 14th-15th to agree that there had been sufficient progress to begin talks on transition and a future trade framework. The prime minister has duly made big concessions on the rights of EU citizens in Britain and on the exit bill, perhaps enough to pass the test. There even seems to be some movement on the trickiest issue of all, how to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic, making a December deal more likely—but still not certain.

Yet behind the good new lurks a persistent and dangerous threat. The more that Mrs May yields, the more some Brexiteers argue that Britain should leave on March 29th 2019 without any deal at all. Even if she wins agreement to move to phase two of the talks, the lure of no deal will not disappear. Brexiteers hate the concessions that are being made in phase one, especially over money. And trade buffs are united in predicting that the phase two could prove even more painful, with the EU sticking to a rigid line on trade terms. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Paul Achleitner über Brexit: „New York wird größter Nutznießer“

Posted by hkarner - 29. November 2017

Interview Andreas Schnauder, 29. November 2017, 08:16 derstandard.at

Der Aufsichtsratschef der Deutschen Bank über die wachsende US-Dominanz

Er gilt als Architekt der Neuordnung am deutschen Finanzsektor und als Troubleshooter bei der Deutschen Bank: Seit Paul Achleitner im Mai 2012 den Aufsichtsratsvorsitz bei Deutschlands größtem Institut übernommen hat, kam die Bank nicht aus den Schlagzeilen heraus. Nun verspürt der gebürtige Österreicher wieder Rückenwind, warnt aber vor der wachsenden Dominanz der US-Rivalen. Im Unterschied zum Internetsektor, in dem „kein Europäer am Tisch sitzt“, solle die EU die Eigenständigkeit in der Finanzbranche wahren. Allerdings: Beim Brexit sieht Achleitner New York als größten Profiteur, wenn Banken aus London abziehen.

STANDARD: Europas Banken wurden in den letzten Jahren von US-Instituten in Sachen Ertragskraft und Börsenwert überflügelt. Wird diese Entwicklung zu einer Konsolidierung auf dem Alten Kontinent führen?

Achleitner: Man muss das im Gesamtkontext sehen. Alle europäischen Unternehmen stehen im starken Wettbewerb zur amerikanischen und insbesondere auch zur chinesischen Konkurrenz. Die große Herausforderung besteht nun darin, wie die Unternehmen mit der digitalen Revolution umgehen. Und ich meine, dass Europa hier möglicherweise sogar einen Vorteil hat. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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