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Posts Tagged ‘Brexit’

The beginning of the endgame for Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 16. November 2018

Date: 15-11-2018
Source: The Economist

Theresa May’s deal has provoked resignations from the cabinet. Getting the agreement through Parliament is looking ever harder

After what had seemed an endless period of delay and crunches evaded, this week Theresa May at last presented a draft Brexit deal agreed by negotiators in Brussels. The prime minister steered it through a lengthy cabinet meeting on November 14th. Yet the following morning her own Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, quit in protest. Others followed. As Conservative mps condemned the deal, talk of a leadership challenge to the prime minister grew.

Many more dangers lie ahead. The deal requires the consent of all 27 eu countries, with a special summit of leaders booked for November 25th. The European Parliament must approve it. Hardest of all, the agreement must pass the Westminster Parliament. With Leaver and Remainer mps from all parties falling over each other to denounce the deal even before it was published, that hurdle looks very high.

The deal comes in two parts. The first is a draft withdrawal agreement that runs to 585 pages, including a protocol on Northern Ireland. The second is a seven-page political declaration about the future relationship between Britain and the eu. The first will become a legally binding treaty that covers such matters as Britain’s exit bill and eu citizens’ rights, as well as the so-called Northern Irish backstop. It will also create a standstill transition period after Brexit day on March 29th 2019, which will last until at least December 2020. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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‚We Can’t Stop Brexit‘

Posted by hkarner - 10. November 2018

SPIEGEL ONLINE
11/09/2018 06:00 PM

Interview with Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn

Interview Conducted by

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn believes that politics have left young people behind. In an interview with DER SPIEGEL, he speaks about Brexit, the crisis of social democracy in Europe and the uphill battle to unite his party.

The man upon whom the hopes of young men and women in Britain rest enjoys taking pictures of drain covers and making jam. He wears baggy blazers and, when necessary, smuggles English cheese into his Mexican vacation lodgings. In other words, he leads the averagely eccentric lifestyle of your standard British retiree.

Except that Jeremy Corbyn, 69, has his sights set on becoming the next prime minister of the United Kingdom. Ever since the man from the London borough of Islington became the surprise Labour leader in 2015, the party has been experiencing an unprecedented boom. Not unlike Bernie Sanders in the United States, Corbyn’s decidedly socialist and pacifist positions have been received enthusiastically by mostly young voters. With its 540,000 members, Labour is now the largest political party in the European Union. In the 2017 election, it received 40 percent of the vote, despite significant attacks on the party from the British media and a bitter internal battle. Since then, left-wing and social democratic parties from across Europe have been making pilgrimages to London to learn the secret to Corbyn’s unlikely success. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit vs. the Irish Question

Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2018

Michael Burleigh

Michael Burleigh’s books include Small Wars, Faraway Places: The Genesis of the Modern World, Blood and Rage: A Cultural History of Terrorism, The Third Reich: A New History, and The Best and the Worst of Times: The World As It Is (forthcoming). He is CEO of the global political risk consultancy Sea Change Partners.

Brexiteers have given no serious thought to what withdrawal from the European Union will mean for Northern Ireland and its relationship with Great Britain. If they had, they would have known that there is no way to bring twenty-first-century reality into line with their nineteenth-century delusions of grandeur.

LONDON – On Brexit day – March 29, 2019 – the HMS Buccaneer Britannia will set sail in search of the riches of the “Anglosphere.” But there is a hitch: Someone has forgotten to raise the anchor, which remains planted firmly in Ireland.

This isn’t surprising. Of all the Euroskeptic Conservative politicians I know, not one has ever mentioned Northern Ireland, let alone the sovereign country to the south of it. The only thing on the Brexiteers’ minds is the quest for parliamentary sovereignty and liberation from the supranational “superstate” in Brussels.

This blinkered view may simply reflect ignorance. Even an erstwhile “Remainer” like Karen Bradley, the current Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, recently confessed that, “[…] when I started this job, I didn’t understand some of the deep-seated and deep-rooted issues that there are in Northern Ireland.” In other words, until very recently, she has been incurious about one of the central issues of nineteenth- and twentieth-century British history.

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EU prepares for a no-deal Brexit amid lack of progress on talks

Posted by hkarner - 1. November 2018

Date: 31-10-2018
Source: The Guardian

EU seminars will cover citizens’ rights, transport, border controls and financial services

European Union diplomats do not expect the EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, and the UK to resume talks this week.

The European Union is pressing ahead with plans for a no-deal Brexit, amid uncertainty about when high-level negotiations will resume.

With 149 days until Brexit day, time is running out to secure a deal that the British government wants to nail down this autumn, to allow time for the agreement to gain assent from parliament and the European parliament.

EU diplomats meeting on Tuesday agreed to hold a series of no-deal planning seminars in November, covering citizens’ rights, aviation, ground transport, customs, border controls and financial services.

Senior British and EU officials are in constant contact and neither side has given up on a special Brexit summit in mid November to strike a deal. With British politics focused on the budget, EU diplomats do not expect talks between the EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, and the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, to resume this week.

Some European officials see a growing risk of sliding into an accidental no-deal, if the British parliament votes down any agreement the embattled prime minister strikes with the EU.

Philippe Lamberts, a Belgian MEP, who sits on the European parliament’s Brexit steering group, said he had become more pessimistic about a Brexit deal, following Theresa May’s speech to parliament last week, where she again rejected the EU proposals on Ireland, which the EU sees as reneging on earlier agreements. “Since the British government started backtracking on its commitments in the joint report [of December 2017] I have become less optimistic about a deal being clinched,” he told the Guardian. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexiteers are angry not just with Theresa May, but with reality

Posted by hkarner - 28. Oktober 2018

Date: 25-10-2018
Source: The Economist: Bagehot

As their project goes off the rails, Brexiteers resort to rage

The brexiteers have become the angry brigade of British politics. Boris Johnson has accused Theresa May of wrapping a suicide vest around Britain. Jacob Rees-Mogg has accused her of being “cowed” by the European Union. And several Tory mps have used anonymous briefings to savage her in the press. “The moment is coming when the knife gets heated, stuck in her front and twisted,” declared one conspirator who is probably more familiar with “The Texas Chainsaw Massacre” than the complete works of Edmund Burke. “She’ll be dead soon.”

The obvious reason for this is that Brexiteers think that Mrs May is wrecking a project that has consumed much of their lives. They are furious that she botched the election of 2017 with a wooden campaign and a shoddy manifesto. This has weakened the government’s hand in dealing not only with recalcitrant Remainers but also with cunning Europeans who are determined to exploit any sign of British weakness. They are equally cross that she is betraying what they consider to be the glorious principles of Lancaster House, the speech in which she laid down various “red lines” about leaving the European Union. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die hohen Kosten eines Finanzzentrums

Posted by hkarner - 21. Oktober 2018

Howard Davies, the first chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority (1997-2003), is Chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland. He was Director of the London School of Economics (2003-11) and served as Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry.

LONDON – Während die Brexit-Verhandlungen Großbritanniens weiterholpern, nutzen andere europäische Länder die Zeit der Ungewissheit hinsichtlich der künftigen Finanzmarkt-Regulierung, um Firmen und Aktivitäten aus London in konkurrierende Finanzzentren zu locken. Die Franzosen unterstützen Paris besonders aktiv, aber Frankfurt liegt, trotz halbherziger Unterstützung der Regierung in Berlin, nicht weit zurück. Und auch andere Städte wie Luxemburg, Dublin und Amsterdam haben ihre roten Teppiche ausgerollt. So beliebt waren Banker schon seit einem Jahrzehnt oder noch länger nicht.  

Aber sollten andere Städte London nachahmen und zu einem globalen Finanzzentrum werden wollen? Ist man sich in diesen Städten bewusst, was gut für sie und ihre jeweiligen Volkswirtschaften ist?

Die weltweite Finanzkrise des Jahres 2008 hat zu einem Umdenken hinsichtlich der diesbezüglichen Vor- und Nachteile geführt. Definitiv von Vorteil ist ein bedeutendes Finanzzentrum im eigenen Land für Porsche-Händler, angesagte Champagner-Bars und Nachtclubs. Von mancher Seite wird allerdings argumentiert, dass die Nachteile im Hinblick auf die Auswirkungen auf die übrige Wirtschaft zu schwerwiegend sind, um sie außer Acht zu lassen.

Andy Haldane, Chefvolkswirt der Bank of England, bezeichnet zumindest Teile der Bankenbranche als „Schadstoffe“. Das „systemische Risiko”, so Haldane, „ist ein schädliches Abfallprodukt”, von dem „Gefahr für arglose Unbeteiligte in der Wirtschaft ausgeht.“  Einige Länder, darunter das Vereinigte Königreich, tragen weiterhin „die sozialen Kosten, die Bankenkrisen für die Allgemeinheit bringen.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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EU leaders ready to help May sell Brexit deal to parliament

Posted by hkarner - 19. Oktober 2018

Date: 19-10-2018
Source: The Guardian

PM will receive backing to build ‘coalition of the reasonable’ in desperate bid to avoid no deal

Angela Merkel, left, and Emmanuel Macron. The German chancellor stressed that the EU had to pursue “all avenues” to find a deal that can get through the Commons.

EU leaders are preparing to back Theresa May in building a “coalition of the reasonable” in the UK parliament, in a desperate bid to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Following what has been described by diplomats as a “call for help” by the prime minister at a crunch summit in Brussels, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, stressed that the EU had to pursue “all avenues” to find a deal that can get through the Commons.“I think where there is a will there is a way,” she said.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, said: “It will be done.” He is understood to have told EU leaders that May needed “help” to sell a deal in parliament.

While ruling out major concessions, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it was clear that the roadblock to a deal did not lie in Brussels. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit Provides Early Proof of Deglobalization’s Costs

Posted by hkarner - 18. Oktober 2018

Date: 17-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Greg Ip

A study comparing Britain to peer economies finds its output is 2.1% below what it would be without Brexit

For outsiders, Brexit has the feel of a long-running soap opera: a mash-up of plot twists and tragic characters loaded with entertainment value but not much significance if you’re not British.

That complacency is a mistake. Never in the last 70 years has a major advanced economy left a free-trade area. Brexit is providing the first real-world evidence of the costs that come from undoing the intricate bonds of globalization.

It is of course an extreme case of deglobalization: The European Union’s single market for goods, services, capital and labor is much more integrated than other free trade zones. Yet many of the barriers that are bound to rise between Britain and its partners, such as on regulations, trade penalties and immigration, are similar to those cropping up in the wider world, such as between the U.S. and its partners.

Measuring the effect of Brexit is complicated by the fact it hasn’t happened yet. British and European leaders are meeting Wednesday in an effort to bridge differences on a post-Brexit deal. Without a deal, Britain could see tariff and nontariff barriers snap back to the maximum the World Trade Organization permits. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe Offers Britain an Olive Branch to Break Brexit Impasse

Posted by hkarner - 18. Oktober 2018

Date: 17-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Brussels offers to extend Britain’s transition year as both sides seek a deal

BRUSSELS—The European Union is prepared to give the U.K. an extra transition year to negotiate a trade agreement in an effort to break a stalemate in Brexit negotiations.

The offer emerged as British Prime Minister Theresa May prepared to address other EU leaders at a summit Wednesday.

While the two sides claim to be intensifying preparations in case of a disruptive no-deal U.K. departure from bloc, EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier on Tuesday briefed foreign ministers on a plan to add a further 12 months to the transition period after Britain leaves the bloc in March 2019.

The transition, in which economic and trade relations would remain unchanged after Brexit, has been provisionally agreed by both sides to last until the end of 2020. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Brexit Endgame

Posted by hkarner - 17. Oktober 2018

Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.

Britain’s Leave campaign was a revolt against not only economic mismanagement, but also the pretension of supranational government. So Brexit’s outcome may indicate how the dialectic between supranationalism and nationalism will play out in much of the rest of the world as well, where it is the stuff of current politics.

LONDON – The United Kingdom’s “Remainers,” who still hope to reverse Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, have placarded British cities with a simple question: “Brexit – Is It Worth It?” Well, is it?

The answer given by economics is clear: certainly not. In terms of the costs and benefits of leaving, the result of the 2016 Brexit referendum was plainly irrational. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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