Posted by hkarner - 26. Februar 2017
Source: Project Syndicate
Brigitte Granville is Professor of International Economics and Economic Policy at the School of Business and Management, Queen Mary University of London. She is the author of Remembering Inflation and a forthcoming book on the French predicament on the eve of the country’s presidential and parliamentary elections in 2017.
PARIS – For at least the past year, populism has been wreaking havoc on Western democracies. Populist forces – parties, leaders, and ideas – underpinned the “Leave” campaign’s victory in the United Kingdom’s Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s election as President of the United States. Now, populism lurks ominously in the background of the Netherlands’ general election in March and the French presidential election in April and May.
But, despite populism’s seeming ubiquity, it is a hard concept to pin down. Populists are often intolerant of outsiders and those who are different; and yet Geert Wilders, the far-right Dutch populist leader, is a firm believer in gay rights. In the US, Trump’s presidential campaign was described as an anti-elite movement; and yet his administration is already practically a subsidiary of Goldman Sachs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, France, Granville, Netherlands, Populism, Project Syndicate, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2017
Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.
FEB 24, 2017 Project Syndicate
LONDON – Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s recent call for voters to think again about leaving the European Union, echoed in parliamentary debates ahead of the government’s official launch of the process in March, is an Emperor’s New Clothes moment. Although Blair is now an unpopular figure, his voice, like that of the child in Hans Christian Andersen’s story, is loud enough to carry above the cabal of flatterers assuring Prime Minister Theresa May that her naked gamble with Britain’s future is clad in democratic finery.
The importance of Blair’s speech can be gauged by the hysterical over-reaction to his suggestion of reopening the Brexit debate, even from supposedly objective media: “It will be seen by some as a call to arms – Tony Blair’s Brexit insurrection,” according to the BBC.
Such is the tyranny of the majority in post-referendum Britain that a “Remainer” proposal for rational debate and persuasion is considered an insurrection. And anyone questioning government policy on Brexit is routinely described as an “enemy of the People,” whose treachery will provoke “blood in the streets.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Blair, Brexit, Kaletsky, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2017
Tony Blair was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1997 to 2007. Since leaving office, he has founded the Africa Governance Initiative, the Tony Blair Faith Foundation, and the Faith and Globalization Initiative.
FEB 24, 2017, Project Syndicate
On February 17, Tony Blair delivered a speech aimed at reopening the Brexit debate in Britain. In view of the potential significance of his intervention, we reproduce the text of his speech here.
LONDON – The British people voted to leave the Europe Union, and the will of the people should prevail. But the people voted without knowledge of the true terms of Brexit. As these terms become clear, it is their right to change their mind.
What was unfortunately only dim in our sight before the Brexit referendum is now in plain sight. The road Britain is going down is not simply “Hard Brexit.” It is “Brexit at Any Cost.”
Our challenge is to expose these costs, to show how the decision was based on imperfect knowledge, and to demonstrate in easy-to-understand ways how proceeding will cause real damage to our country. Finally, we must build support for finding a way to stop the current rush over the cliff’s edge. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Blair, Brexit, Britain, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2017
Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.
FEB 23, 2017 Project Syndicate
LONDON – Early last month, Andy Haldane, Chief Economist at the Bank of England, blamed “irrational behavior” for the failure of the BoE’s recent forecasting models. The failure to spot this irrationality had led policymakers to forecast that the British economy would slow in the wake of last June’s Brexit referendum. Instead, British consumers have been on a heedless spending spree since the vote to leave the European Union; and, no less illogically, construction, manufacturing, and services have recovered.
Haldane offers no explanation for this burst of irrational behavior. Nor can he: to him, irrationality simply means behavior that is inconsistent with the forecasts derived from the BoE’s model. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: BoE, Brexit, Economist, Forecast, irrational behavior, Project Syndicate, Skidelsky | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 23. Februar 2017
NEW DELHI – For too long, the World Trade Organization has languished, to lift a reference from T.S. Eliot, by the “waters of Leman” (Lake Geneva). Once the world’s preeminent multilateral trade forum, the WTO has been steadily marginalized in recent years, and recent rebukes of globalization, such as the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump as US president, suggest that this trend will accelerate. But these outcomes may actually have the opposite effect, owing to three key developments that could enable the revival of the WTO – and of the multilateralism that it embodies.
The first development is the decline of alternative trade arrangements. The WTO reached its peak in the early 2000s, a few years after the Uruguay Round of global trade negotiations concluded, and a time when more countries – most notably China – were acceding to the organization.
But major trade players like the United States and the European Union subsequently shifted their focus from multilateral trade agreements to bilateral, regional, and mega-regional deals. The mega-regionals – namely, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) – posed a particularly grave threat to the WTO. Yet those are precisely the deals that the Trump administration is rejecting, or at least postponing. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Hyper-Globalization, Project Syndicate, Subramanian, Trump, WTO | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2017
Javier Solana was EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain. He is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.
FEB 18, 2017, Project Syndicate
MUNICH – The world needs the European Union now more than ever. Despite recent crises and the hard blow dealt by the Brexit vote, the EU may well be the world’s best line of defense against today’s most serious threats: isolationism, protectionism, nationalism, and extremism in all forms, all of which are once again growing in Europe and beyond. The key to enabling the EU to meet this potential – to save itself and the world from catastrophe – is for member states urgently to adopt a “European Union first” mantra.
Unlike the “America first” credo embraced by US President Donald Trump, such a mantra would not be an exercise in damaging unilateralism. On the contrary, it would compel member states’ governments to look beyond narrow national interest, defend openness and multilateralism, and confront head-on the exclusionary political forces that have lately been gaining ground. It would drive member states to consolidate the EU, thereby enabling it to overcome the challenges it faces and help preserve the international order. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, china, Europe, Extremism, Isolationism, Nationalism, Project Syndicate, Protectionism, Solana, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 19. Februar 2017
Source: The Economist
TONY BLAIR’S speech on Brexit on the morning of February 17th attracted a predictable storm of derision. Today the former prime minister serves as a sort of Rorschach test for whatever irks the viewer: to the left he stands for free-market capitalism and war, to the right he stands for a hyper-metropolitan internationalism, to some of his former acolytes he stands for how not to secure one’s political legacy after leaving politics. In parts of Westminster and Fleet Street voicing nuanced opinions about Mr Blair meets with a mix of bafflement and distaste, like ordering veal at a vegan restaurant.
To be sure, some of the criticism is valid. Mr Blair presided over the build-up to Britain’s financial and economic crisis and the failure of the post-invasion period in Iraq. His globe-trotting, pro-globalisation breeziness clashes with the prevailing mood among electorates in much of the West. His business activities since leaving Downing Street (ten years ago this June, believe it or not) have done his domestic reputation significant harm.
Yet the shame of all this is that it detracts from the many things Mr Blair says that are worth heeding. He may have been out of British politics for a while—that mid-Atlantic accent does not lie—but he remains the most successful British politician of the past two decades. To read some of his critics you would think his record, leading a previously unelectable party to three strong election victories, was achieved by pure fluke or by casting some sort of spell on an electorate that would never ordinarily vote for him. Whisper it softly, but perhaps the former prime minister is a better strategist, a more expansive thinker and operator, than these infantile interpretations allow. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Blair, Brexit, Economist, UK | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 14. Februar 2017
Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister and former Senior Vice President of the World Bank, is a member of the Spanish Council of State, a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on the United States.
FEB 13, 2017 Project Syndicate
MADRID – After years of intensifying fragmentation and tension, the European Union may be on the verge of losing its most precious assets: peace, prosperity, freedom of movement, and values such as tolerance, openness, and unity. Will Europeans unite in time to save them?
The danger facing the EU became starkly apparent last June, when the United Kingdom voted to leave. And Donald Trump’s election as US president has made matters far worse. The United States, Europe’s closest and most powerful ally – a crucial security partner and bearer of shared values – is now headed in a very different direction, and threatening to leave a shaken and divided Europe alone in a harsh world eager to tear it apart.
This might sound hyperbolic. Many in the US political class remain convinced – at least in public – that US foreign policy under Trump will be reined in by the more level-headed heavyweights in his cabinet, such as Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. “Don’t worry,” they say, “the worst will not happen.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Europe, Palacio, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2017
FEB 10, 2017, Project Syndicate
In her 1969 book On Death and Dying, the Swiss psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross famously described five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. After a tumultuous year in which the United Kingdom decided to quit the European Union and Donald Trump was elected President of the United States, many people have been left in a state of mourning. A deep sense of loss attends the realization that America might no longer serve as a pillar of global stability, economic openness, and social progress.
Bereavement follows no singular formula, of course, but as politicians, businesspeople, and citizens around the world grapple with our new age of uncertainty, they are experiencing some – or perhaps all – stages of grief. These sentiments are undoubtedly becoming more acute with each passing day of Trump’s incendiary presidency. With each new off-the-cuff tweet, executive order, and truth-challenged speech, it becomes increasingly unlikely that the international order or the global economy will come through the Trump era unscathed.
Worse still, there is no guarantee that an emotional reckoning will yield the practical solutions that the world needs to combat toxic populist politics. Over the past few weeks, Project Syndicate commentaries have shared insights that complement each of Kübler-Ross’s emotional stages. Considering them together may uncover a pathway through the anguish – and through the Trumpian chaos fueling it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Project Syndicate, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »