Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Brexit’

Brexit and Britain’s Broken Parliament

Posted by hkarner - 23. Oktober 2019

Date: 22-10-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Walter Russell Mead

The prime minister can’t call an election, thanks to a reform enacted in 2011.

Is Britain broken? That’s the question a bemused world has been asking since the unexpected result of Remainer David Cameron’s Brexit referendum plunged the U.K. into a three-year political crisis.

Two things are striking about this period of national agony and debate. The first is how sensible and peaceful the British people have remained. The Brexit referendum carried by 52% to 48% (a margin of roughly 1.3 million out of more than 33.5 million votes cast) and the consequences are unpredictable and large. Will the United Kingdom even stay united as Scotland and Northern Ireland react to Brexit? Will Britain’s economy flourish as it opens to the world or wither without privileged access to European markets? From the City of London’s financial sector to the Sunderland Nissan factory, hundreds of thousands, even millions of jobs may be at stake. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Financial Markets Face Fresh Wave of Political Uncertainty: ‘There’s Literally Nowhere to Hide’

Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2019

Date: 21-10-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Investors spooked by widespread turmoil are seeking havens

The U.K. Parliament’s decision to postpone a final vote on the country’s exit from the European Union marks the latest geopolitical development likely to swing financial markets, highlighting the extreme levels of uncertainty that some investors worry isn’t being properly accounted for with U.S. stocks near all-time highs.

The U.S.-China trade war, Britain leaving the EU and impeachment proceedings in the U.S. are just some of the major political obstacles facing investors. Adding to the uncertainty are the Turkish military operation in Syria, attacks on Saudi oil production and social unrest spanning from Hong Kong to Barcelona.

In response, some investors are boosting holdings of cash and other assets that tend to hold their value when markets turn rocky. Others are recommending strategies that could protect against a swift downturn. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rebel amendment defeat is yet another painful bellyflop for Boris Johnson

Posted by hkarner - 21. Oktober 2019

Date: 20-10-2019
Source: The Guardian by Polly Toynbee

Prime minister was stopped dead in his tracks from bulldozing deal through parliament with no scrutiny

‘Boris Johnson richly deserves to become the next Tory leader to fail over Europe.’

The prime minister nose-dives again, yet another painful bellyflop among the many in his 88 short days in power. He takes the same humiliating punishment he inflicted on his predecessor in order to snatch her seat: she was gracious, but you could see the inner smirk.

Today he was stopped dead in his tracks from bulldozing an EU deal through parliament. An act that would cement Britain’s fate for decades to come was insultingly put to parliament without time for scrutiny, with no Treasury economic impact assessment, and its 553-page legal text only handed to MPs in the morning as the debate began.

No wonder many, like Sir Oliver Letwin himself, who back the deal in principle, balked at signing up blindfold to such a pig in a poke with no time for deliberation. Will Boris Johnson refuse to send the letter asking for an extension, will he break the law? If so, the law will break him, again.

If anyone was hoping for some great historic parliamentary moment, this was no resounding debate on the nature and future of Britain to ring out through the ages. Instead you could hear the flapping of pigeons coming home to roost to this house that had created such a disastrously flawed referendum. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Markets Are Rising Despite a Trade War, Brexit and Impeachment Threats

Posted by hkarner - 20. Oktober 2019

Date: 19-10-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Many investors are watching the Fed while not trading geopolitical events

Some investors say they aren’t trading geopolitical events such as Brexit and the impeachment inquiry in the U.S.

The world seems more tumultuous than it has in years. Congress is weighing impeachment, the U.K. is on the verge of a momentous vote regarding its role in Europe, and the U.S. and China are still mired in a trade war.

Yet the S&P 500 is within about 2% of its all-time high. What’s going on with Wall Street?

For many money managers, the answer has a lot to do with the Federal Reserve. The central bank has already lowered interest rates twice this year and is widely expected to do so at least once more in 2019 to help support a slowing economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Another Scottish referendum beckons—and this time the nationalists may win

Posted by hkarner - 20. Oktober 2019

Date: 19-10-2019
Source: The Economist

Brexit, and the capture of Westminster by hardliners, has increased Scots’ appetite for independence

It is a defining characteristic of the modern Scottish nationalist movement that it refuses to engage in extreme methods to advance its cause. This week, as Spain’s supreme court jailed Catalan separatist leaders for between nine and 13 years for sedition, following an illegal referendum and unilateral declaration of independence in 2017, the Scottish National Party was gathering peacefully in Aberdeen for its annual conference.

Nicola Sturgeon, the snp’s leader and first minister of Scotland, was quick to condemn the Spanish court’s decision as “dreadful”. But the contrast between the two movements is stark. When it comes to radical activity, Scottish nationalists might engage in a boisterous march through the streets of Edinburgh or, if especially grumpy, wave some placards outside the “biased” bbc. But they obey the law.

This perhaps reflects the fact that Britain has been a union of choice for more than 300 years and has largely operated to Scotland’s advantage. Even with the separatist snp repeatedly elected to power at Holyrood, Scotland’s devolved parliament, over the past decade, the nation has remained a reasonably relaxed part of Britain, voting 55-45 to stay in an independence referendum in 2014. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Support grows for a new Brexit poll amid fears over Johnson’s plan

Posted by hkarner - 14. Oktober 2019

Date: 13-10-2019
Source: The Guardian

DUP raises doubts on customs union, while Labour says it will whip MPs to support a second referendum

Pro-remain MPs predicted on Saturday that they were gaining sufficient cross-party support to secure a second Brexit referendum as fresh doubts were raised over whether Boris Johnson can secure a deal with the EU that can pass through parliament.

The push for a second vote appeared to be gaining momentum before what promises to be a dramatic “super Saturday” showdown in parliament next weekend. That emergency House of Commons sitting, called by Johnson, will be held after a critical EU summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. It will coincide with a pro-referendum march through London, which organisers say a million people could join.

On Saturday the chances of Johnson securing a deal that will win the crucial support of the 10 DUP MPs appeared to be in growing doubt as Nigel Dodds, the party’s leader in Westminster, questioned key elements of the proposed deal – including the idea of Northern Ireland being in some form of post-Brexit customs partnership with the EU. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit Talks to Intensify as Prospect of Deal Improves

Posted by hkarner - 13. Oktober 2019

Date: 12-10-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The pound surged Thursday on the prospect of a deal and continued to rise following Donald Tusk’s remarks

European Union and U.K. officials will intensify Brexit talks in an attempt to reach an agreement on Britain’s split from the bloc before a leaders’ summit next week, fueling hopes that a yearlong impasse over Britain’s departure from the trade bloc may soon end.

European leaders and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson gather in Brussels on Oct. 17 to try to hammer out a deal to seal Britain’s divorce with the trade bloc before an Oct. 31 deadline. Mr. Johnson has said he is determined to take Britain out of the EU by the end of the month, even if a deal isn’t secured.

Both sides have been in informal talks for weeks on a possible deal the leaders would consider at the summit. But following a meeting Thursday between Mr. Johnson and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, diplomats and other officials said talks will step up over the weekend. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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No-deal Brexit would ‚push national debt to levels last seen in 60s‘

Posted by hkarner - 9. Oktober 2019

Date: 08-10-2019
Source: The Guardian

IFS says public borrowing will more than double next year whatever the Brexit result

Richard Partington Economics correspondent

Emergency tax cuts and higher public spending to offset the impact of a no-deal Brexit would send government debt to its highest level in more than half a century, according to Britain’s leading experts on the public finances.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the scale of the government response required to firefight a flatlining economy in the event of a disorderly departure from the EU would come with a hefty price tag for the public purse.

In a warning to Boris Johnson as his Brexit plan risked unravelling in the face of stiff opposition at home and abroad, the thinktank said government borrowing was already set to more than double next year regardless of the outcome of negotiations with Brussels.

It also said the national debt – the sum total of all borrowing accumulated by the British state – would hit almost 90% of GDP if Britain crashed out of the EU without a deal, its highest level since the mid-1960s. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Macron gives Johnson until end of week to overhaul Brexit plan

Posted by hkarner - 8. Oktober 2019

Date: 07-10-2019
Source: The Guardian

French president’s insistence that UK should give way raises chances of talks imploding

Emmanuel Macron

The French president has given Boris Johnson until the end of the week to fundamentally revise his Brexit plan, in a move that increases the chances of the negotiations imploding within days.

The UK proposals tabled last week are not regarded in Brussels as being a basis for a deal and Emmanuel Macron emphasised it was up to the UK to think again before an upcoming EU summit.

After declining to meet with the prime minister in person, Macron further insisted during a phone call on Sunday that the talks would only be advanced through Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Posted by hkarner - 7. Oktober 2019

Date: 06-10-2019
Source: The Guardian
Subject: Michel Barnier: blame Boris Johnson for a no-deal Brexit

EU’s chief negotiator issues warning to UK government as talks appear on brink of collapse

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier answers journalists’ questions as he arrives for a meeting at the European parliament.

The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has said Boris Johnson’s government will have to bear full responsibility for a no-deal Brexit, as more than three years of talks between the UK and Brussels appeared on the brink of collapse last night.

In what appeared to be the opening shots in a blame game as both sides sense failure, Barnier said he could not see how a deal could be done unless the British side came forward with revised proposals within days.

If it refused to do so – and there was no deal as a result – this would be viewed by the EU as the deliberate choice of Boris Johnson’s government. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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