Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Brexit’

British politics is being profoundly reshaped by populism

Posted by hkarner - 18. November 2017

Date: 16-11-2017
Source: The Economist

Britain ought to have been immune to populism. Instead it is becoming an unlikely victim

BRITAIN should have been better placed than any other country to fight off the populist fever that is spreading around the world. The House of Commons is one of the oldest representative institutions on Earth. The country’s last violent revolution was in the middle of the 17th century. With politicians as different as Clement Attlee and Margaret Thatcher denouncing them as “a device for dictators and demagogues”, Britain avoided nationwide referendums until 1975 and has only used them three times. The British erect statues to statesmen and women in Parliament rather than to “the people”.

Yet British politics is currently being reshaped by populism. The essence of populism is the belief that society can be divided into two antagonistic classes—the people and the powerful. The people are presumed to have a single will. The powerful are presumed to be devious and corrupt: determined to feather their own nests and adept at using intermediary institutions (courts, media companies, political parties) to frustrate the people. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Autonomie und Unterordnung im globalen Kapitalismus

Posted by hkarner - 8. November 2017

Anne Margarian, 6. Nov. 2017 Ökonomenstimme.de

Warum votieren die Briten für den Brexit und viele Katalanen für die Abspaltung von Spanien? Warum streben Milliardäre nach politischen Ämtern, statt sich auf ihre ökonomischen Imperien zu konzentrieren? Sind diese Entscheidungen jenseits der ökonomischen Rationalität wirklich bar jeder Vernunft, wie viele Kommentare nahezulegen scheinen? Um diese Fragen zu beantworten, muss man das enge Referenzsystem ökonomischer Modelle verlassen, wie dieser Beitrag zeigt.

Ökonomische Modelle behandeln den Markt als zentrales, wenn nicht als einziges Koordinationssystem. Dass dem Markt eine so zentrale Rolle zugeschrieben wird, ergibt sich aus einem liberalen und individualistischen Menschenbild und aus der Leistungsfähigkeit des Marktes in der zuverlässigen spontanen Koordination kurzfristiger menschlicher Entscheidungen. Die neuen populistischen Bewegungen und regionalen Autonomiebestrebungen sind aber möglicherweise auch sichtbarer Ausdruck des Gefühls, dass die Entwicklung der Wohlfahrt nach ökonomischen Maßstäben einerseits und der subjektiv empfundenen Wohlfahrt andererseits zunehmend auseinander fallen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2017

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

With talks on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

LONDON – Like many divorce proceedings, Britain’s negotiations with the European Union have reached an impasse that can be broken only by compromise. The solution is for both sides to admit that a permanent new relationship cannot be agreed in the short time remaining until the Brexit deadline in March 2019.

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EU summit:  Brexit: The worst is yet to come

Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2017

Date: 20-10-2017
Source: The Economist

Europe’s leaders offer Theresa May qualified support, but tougher challenges lie ahead

THERESA MAY, Britain’s prime minister, arrived in Brussels on October 19th for an EU summit with a cacophony of voices in her ears. Hardliners in her Conservative Party were urging her to stick two fingers up to the intransigent Europeans and walk away from the deadlocked Brexit negotiations. Business groups and Philip Hammond, her chancellor, were growing increasingly fretful over the urgent need to agree a “transitional” deal to avoid a regulatory cliff-edge once Britain leaves the EU in March 2019. As if to rub it in, soon after Mrs May arrived Lloyd Blankfein, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, tweeted mischievously that after Brexit he expected to spend a lot more time in Frankfurt, a European rival to the City of London, Britain’s financial heart. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why the British Chose Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2017

Date: 21-10-2017
Source: Foreign Affairs

Behind the Scenes of the Referendum

The United Kingdom’s vote last year to leave the European Union was a seismic event. The British people ignored the advice of the leaders of all their major political parties and of virtually all experts. George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, told voters that leaving would wreck the British economy. U.S. President Barack Obama warned that it would reduce the United Kingdom’s influence on the world stage. Financial markets, many pollsters, and political pundits all anticipated that voters would heed the elites’ advice. And yet they decided not to, setting off a process destined to transform the country’s politics, economy, and society.

No wonder, then, that the referendum has generated a rash of books seeking to explain, or at least describe, what happened. The pace of academic publishing means that most of those that have already appeared are quick and dirty accounts by journalists or politicians and their advisers. Among these, two stand out: Unleashing Demons, by Craig Oliver, who worked as Prime Minister David Cameron’s director of communications, and All Out War, by the journalist Tim Shipman. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Clear danger: the City and Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 19. Oktober 2017

Date: 18-10-2017

Source: The Economist

Clearing-houses, which ensure a derivatives contract is honoured even if one side goes bust, are an early financial-sector target of Brexit hand-wringing. London’s clearing-houses, of which the largest is LCH, owned by the London Stock Exchange Group, handle 75% of global interest-rate swaps in euros and 97% of those in dollars.

To ensure the euro zone’s post-Brexit financial stability, the European Union proposes either direct supervision over London’s clearing-houses or the forced relocation of euro-denominated trades—which Xavier Rolet, the LSEG’s boss, warned yesterday could cost EU firms €20bn ($23.4bn) a year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Regionalismus versus Europa

Posted by hkarner - 18. Oktober 2017

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany’s strong support for NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.

BERLIN – Europa kommt nicht wirklich zur Ruhe, es ist immer etwas los auf dem alten Kontinent. Im Jahre 2016 hat sich eine demokratische Mehrheit in Großbritannien im Namen der Wiedererlangung ihrer „Souveränität“ für den Sprung von der Klippe entschieden. Es war dies, aus britischer Sicht, eine Entscheidung Vergangenheit gegen Zukunft, gewissermaßen zwischen der Erinnerung an das für das Land glorreiche 19. Jahrhundert gegen das wenig versprechende 21. Jahrhundert. Es ist bis heute nicht klar, wie die Landung nach diesem Sprung ins Dunkle aussehen wird – auch wenn mittlerweile vieles dafür spricht, dass diese Landung hart, sehr hart sogar ausfallen wird. Nun, die „Souveränität“ wird es richten und Flügel verleihen, könnte man als Zyniker dazu nur anmerken! 

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Brexit will give the derivatives market a nasty headache

Posted by hkarner - 16. Oktober 2017

Date: 14-10-2017
Source: The Economist

The legal status of thousands of contracts may be thrown into doubt

FOR all the talk of banks deserting London as Britain’s departure from the EU looms, relatively little attention has been paid to the derivatives market. Yet this is a crucial area of business for British-based banks. The City handles a big chunk of the market, including 39% of the market in interest-rate derivatives alone, where global daily turnover averages $3trn. The rest of the EU accounts for just 9%. Brexit seems sure to cause significant disruption. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, recently warned that the very “legal validity” of pre-existing derivatives contracts could be put into question. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit Poses Risk to U.K.’s Existing Economic Order

Posted by hkarner - 10. Oktober 2017

Date: 09-10-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

At last week’s Conservative Party conference, there was growing concern at where the process is heading

British Prime Minister Theresa May

The British people didn’t vote for a revolution. They simply voted to leave the European Union. But senior figures across the political spectrum believe that a revolution is what Britain is getting.

Contrary to what Brexiters said during last year’s referendum—and continued to insist until recently—Britain’s departure from the EU is going to be anything but easy. It is increasingly clear that Brexit was an act of violence against the existing economic order.

There is scarcely a corner of the U.K. economy that is unaffected by the decision to reverse 43 years of European integration. At last week’s conference of the ruling Conservative Party, there was growing concern at where this process is heading and how it might end.

What makes Brexit so destabilizing is that it shares two features common to revolutions. First, it has created a parallel legitimacy, pitching the supposed “will of the people” expressed in the referendum against the traditional sovereignty of Parliament, thereby constraining the ability of elected representatives to exercise their own judgment.

Second, it has created a power vacuum. Brexiters campaigned under the slogan “Take Back Control,” but they never agreed who should take control of the powers currently held by Brussels. They shook the economic order but without a coherent plan as to what to put in its place. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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All about Boris: Is Boris Johnson really unsackable?

Posted by hkarner - 8. Oktober 2017

Date: 05-10-2017
Source: The Economist
One of the great puzzles of politics is how the foreign secretary keeps his job

BORIS JOHNSON is a serial problem for the Conservative Party’s high command. He is always plotting behind the scenes to get the top job. He has been flagrantly disloyal on the most divisive issue facing the government. Days before Theresa May delivered a speech in Florence laying out the government’s considered position on Brexit, he published an article laying down “red lines” for Britain to keep within during its negotiation. He is also gaffe-prone. The day before Mrs May’s big speech to the party conference he joked, to nervous laughter from his fellow Tories, that Sirte, in northern Libya, could become “the next Dubai” if they could “clear the dead bodies away”.

So why doesn’t the prime minister sack him? One reason, as with almost everything in British politics, lies in Brexit. Sacking a man whose allies call him the “godfather of Brexit” might upset the delicate balance of forces in the cabinet. Another reason is Mr Johnson’s popularity in his party. A YouGov poll found that he is favourite among party members to be the next leader. The Daily Telegraph, a Tory-leaning newspaper, splashed his conference speech on its cover with the headline, “The roaring lion”. Mr Johnson knows how to cheer up the Conservative troops at a time when it is all too easy to give in to despair. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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