Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Brexit’

Nationalbankchef: „Der Brexit wird unterschätzt“

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2017

Interview András Szigetvari25. April 2017, 07:00 derstandard.AT

Politische Orientierungslosigkeit in den USA und die Folgen eines Brexits sieht Ewald Nowotny als die Bedrohungen für Europas Wirtschaft

Bei der Tagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds in Washington wurden Finanzminister und Notenbanker am vergangenen Wochenende über die größten Bedrohungen für die Weltwirtschaft unterrichtet. Politische Risiken standen dabei im Vordergrund. Nebenbei versuchte die österreichische Delegation mit Nowotny Klarheit über den Kurs der Trump-Regierung zu bekommen.

STANDARD: Welche Entwicklungen bereiten Ihnen derzeit am meisten Sorgen: der Brexit, die protektionistischen Tendenzen in den USA, der Nationalismus in Europa?

Nowotny: Beunruhigend sind aktuell vor allem die Unsicherheiten, die in Bezug auf künftige Maßnahmen der US-amerikanischen Regierung bestehen. Einer unserer Gesprächspartner in Washington hat uns gesagt, dass Trump und sein Team gar nicht erwartet haben, dass sie gewinnen. Sie haben also Wahlprogramme, sind aber nicht darauf vorbereitet, wie es weitergehen soll, und müssen sich das erst mühsam erarbeiten. Das heißt, die größte Ökonomie der Welt könnte für einige Zeit orientierungslos dahinschlingern. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Liberal Order Is Rigged: Fix It Now or Watch It Wither

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2017

Date: 23-04-2017
Source: Foreign Affairs

Prior to 2016, debates about the global order mostly revolved around its structure and the question of whether the United States should actively lead it or should retrench, pulling back from its alliances and other commitments. But during the past year or two, it became clear that those debates had missed a key point: today’s crucial foreign policy challenges arise less from problems between countries than from domestic politics within them. That is one lesson of the sudden and surprising return of populism to Western countries, a trend that found its most powerful expression last year in the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU, or Brexit, and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president.

It can be hard to pin down the meaning of “populism,” but its crucial identifying mark is the belief that each country has an authentic “people” who are held back by the collusion of foreign forces and self-serving elites at home. A populist leader claims to represent the people and seeks to weaken or destroy institutions such as legislatures, judiciaries, and the press and to cast off external restraints in defense of national sovereignty. Populism comes in a range of ideological flavors. Left-wing populists want to “soak the rich” in the name of equality; right-wing populists want to remove constraints on wealth in the name of growth. Populism is therefore defined not by a particular view of economic distribution but by a faith in strong leaders and a dislike of limits on sovereignty and of powerful institutions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Is Euroland on Verge of Disintegration?

Posted by hkarner - 21. April 2017

Dank an H.F.
20.04.2017 Author: F. William Engdahl, NEO

Since the global financial crisis of 2008 little significant has been done by Brussels or the governments of the 19 member Eurozone countries to bring the largest banks of the Eurozone into a healthy stability. On the contrary, even venerable mega-banks like Germany’s Deutsche Bank are teetering on the brink.

In Italy the world’s oldest bank, Monte Paschi di Siena, is on state life-support. That is but the tip of an iceberg of Italian bank bad debts. Today in total Italy’s banks hold Italy’s banks hold €360 billion of bad loans or 20% of Italy’s GDP, which is double the total five years ago.

It gets worse. Italy is the fourth largest economy in the EU. Its economy is in dismal shape so bank bad loans grow. State debt is almost as high as that of Greece, at 135% of GDP. Now, since the 2013 Cyprus bank crisis, the EU has passed a stringent new bank “bail-in” law, largely under German pressure. It stipulates that in event of a new banking crisis, a taxpayer bailout is prohibited until bank bond-holders and, if necessary as in Cyprus, its bank depositors, first “bail-in” or take the loss. In Italy, most holders of bank bonds are ordinary Italian citizens, with some €200 billion worth, who were told bank bonds were a secure investment. No more.

German Austerity Medicine Killing Patient Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Planning for President Le Pen

Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2017

The thought of President Le Pen is so terrifying, it seems, posing such a threat to the future of Europe, that it remains for many a possibility they dare not entertain, much less plan for. But that threat is precisely why Europe must address seriously the possibility of her winning, however unlikely it may seem.

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Sterling’s Move Suggests a Softer Ride in Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2017

Date: 19-04-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Pound had a fine day against dollar after Prime Minister Theresa May called for snap election

British Prime Minister Theresa May

It is hard to put probabilities on political outcomes, but the reaction of sterling on Tuesday to the calling of a snap U.K. election offers one rough measure: It is now about 10% less likely that British politicians will take the economy outside and shoot it in the head.

The pound had its second-best day against the dollar since last summer’s vote to leave the European Union, after Prime Minister Theresa May on Tuesday went back on repeated promises not to call a sudden election. At a time when investors are obsessed with politics, this calls for some explanation.

It starts with the slim majority Mrs. May commands in Parliament, and the fractious nature of many of the Leave members of her party. They have been calling for a “hard Brexit,” leaving the EU quickly even if it means falling back on unfavorable World Trade Organization tariffs and cumbersome customs procedures. The smaller her majority, the more power held by these backbenchers and like-minded ministers. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The EFTA countries show how hard Brexit will be for Britain

Posted by hkarner - 15. April 2017

Date: 14-04-2017
Source: The Economist

Striking trade deals quickly is a bonus but what really matters is the quality of the deal

NORWAY offers much to envy. The food is tasty, public services are great and the people are impossibly good-looking. Its trade policy looks equally desirable. Though it trades heavily with the EU, Norway can also strike trade deals all over the world, either operating in concert with the three other members of the European Free Trade Association (Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland) or on its own. Members of EFTA have dozens of deals, including two with China, with which the EU cannot even start negotiations.

After it leaves the EU, Britain will look much like an EFTA country: a rich economy with close links to Europe, but also seeking trade deals elsewhere. It is superficially an attractive prospect. Yet EFTA’s half-in-half-out relationship with the EU hinders its trade as much as it helps. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can Britons keep their EU citizenship after Brexit?

Posted by hkarner - 12. April 2017

Date: 12-04-2017
Source: The Economist

Though many would like to, it looks both legally and politically unlikely

MOST of those who regret Britain’s decision to leave the European Union now accept that Brexit is going to happen. But many are still scrabbling for an escape hatch. The 1m-odd Britons living elsewhere in the EU hope to have their residency rights confirmed early during the negotiations. Anyone with an Irish grandparent can apply for Irish citizenship—and plenty of people are. Marriage to an EU national is another trick, as is buying Maltese or Cypriot citizenship (though the price is steep).

The latest wheeze is to find a way to allow regretful Britons to retain their EU membership on an individual basis. Guy Verhofstadt, a former Belgian prime minister who is now the European Parliament’s point man for the Brexit negotiations, is promoting voluntary “associate EU citizenship” for Britons, an idea first put forward by a fellow MEP from Luxembourg, Charles Goerens. A paragraph in the parliament’s resolution on Brexit, adopted on April 5th, calls for some action to mitigate Britons’ loss of EU citizenship. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Banks Moving to EU Post-Brexit Could Need a Year to Get License, ECB Says

Posted by hkarner - 12. April 2017

Date: 12-04-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Central bank says establishing a shell company in the eurozone wouldn’t be acceptable

London’s Canary Wharf financial district could see some of its residents moving their headquarters to the EU after Brexit.

FRANKFURT—Banks relocating to the eurozone as a result of Brexit will probably have to wait six months to secure a license, and the process could take up to a year, the European Central Bank said.

The comments, from the eurozone’s top banking supervisor, underline the pressure on U.K.-based banks to move quickly ahead of Britain’s expected departure from the European Union by March 2019.

In a document published Tuesday to address banks’ Brexit-related queries, the ECB said it usually takes six months to decide whether to grant a banking license. That period may be shorter if a bank already operates in the eurozone and simply wants to extend its license, the supervisor said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Brexit: Securing a New English-speaking Union?

Posted by hkarner - 8. April 2017

Dank an H.F.!

03.04.2017 Author: F. William Engdahl, NEO

89653433It’s becoming clear that there is a far more ambitious strategy behind Great Britain’s exit from the European Union, the so-called Brexit. Far from a reluctant government led by Prime Minister Theresa May, forced to listen to the Vox Populi of the majority of voters in 2016 who voted to exit the European Union, signs emerge of a far more devious well-planned strategy at the highest levels of British power, including the House of Windsor and the powers of the formidable City of London financial institutions. Britain is ditching the EU as a failed option, and seems to be intent on building a new English-speaking Union together with the United States and with the nations of the Commonwealth–the former colonies of the British Empire prior to 1914.

The British have a long and varied history, emerging from their surprising defeat of the mighty Spanish Armada in 1588 to go on over the course of three centuries to become the most powerful empire on earth, until a Great Depression of 1873 followed by two devastating world wars in the 20th Century, forced her patriarchs to swallow hard and accept a junior partner role with the 1945 dominant power, the United States. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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But this is what these smart Brits have voted for – they just didn’t have a clue!

Posted by hkarner - 8. April 2017

Date: 07-04-2017
Source: The Economist
Subject: To see how trade may work after Brexit, visit Dover’s docks

While goods from the European Union pass through seamlessly, those from elsewhere face long waits

TO MOST Britons, the white cliffs of Dover are symbols of independence and defiance, especially against any prospect of invasion from the continent. But the clifftops also afford an excellent view of one of the great success stories of Britain’s more recent integration with Europe: Dover’s eastern docks.

This is the centre of Britain’s seamless trade with the European Union. A long line of lorries snakes slowly but uninterruptedly around concrete concourses and onto the roll-on, roll-off ferries that make the short crossing to Calais. So smooth is the process that the port can handle 10,500 lorries a day. About £120bn ($150bn) of traded goods comes through Dover each year, 17% of Britain’s total. A few miles away at the Channel Tunnel, up to 6,000 more lorries arrive daily. Yet delays are rare because Britain’s membership of the EU’s single market and customs union mean there is almost no paperwork to hold things up.

Soon that will change. In two years Britain is due to leave the EU—including its single market and customs union, Theresa May has said. The prime minister’s vision of a “hard Brexit” will mean the return of customs barriers in some form, and thus hold-ups at the ports. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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