Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

What Truman Can Teach Trump

Posted by hkarner - 23. Juli 2017

Date: 22-07-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The politically astute Cold Warrior knew how to navigate the tides of populism at home while maintaining America’s leadership abroad

By Walter Russell Mead

The foreign policy of the United States hasn’t seen a strategic crisis this profound since 1947, when President Harry Truman summoned the American people to fight Soviet ambitions in Europe. The Cuban missile crisis was more dramatic and the agony of Vietnam more wrenching, but since Truman, American presidents have believed that a global, outward-looking, order-building foreign policy was the necessary foundation for U.S. strategy and a peaceful, prosperous world.

No longer. President Donald Trump, backed by a substantial segment of the American public, has distanced himself from some of the key foreign-policy assumptions and policies of the postwar era. Longstanding pillars of American strategy—free trade, alliances in Europe and Asia, defense of human rights, commitment to international institutions and the rule of law—have come into question as the new president denounces today’s global architecture as a bad deal for the U.S. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China Plans to Use Artificial Intelligence to Gain Global Economic Dominance by 2030

Posted by hkarner - 23. Juli 2017

Date: 22-07-2017
Source: Technology Review

The country’s government has announced a scheme to surpass Western nations and shape the future of AI.

Though it is not yet as advanced as AlphaGo, Chinese researchers have developed their own Go-playing AI champion, called FineArt.

Artificial intelligence may have been invented in the West, but China seems determined to own its future. Its rising AI community just got a tremendous shot in the arm, in the form of a massive new government investment plan.

The State Council of the People’s Republic of China has announced a bold scheme (link in Chinese) meant to build an AI industry worth $150 billion, and to make China the global leader in the field by 2030. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Krise der Währungsunion: Europas Bankenreform stirbt in Italien

Posted by hkarner - 22. Juli 2017

Mit der staatlichen Rettung italienischer Banken zeigen Beamte und Minister, dass sie ihre eigenen Gesetze nicht ernstnehmen. Ein Kommentar.

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Sie haben es wieder getan. Mehr als 26 Milliarden Euro gab die italienische Regierung in den vergangen zwei Wochen frei, um die Verluste von drei überschuldeten Banken auszugleichen – Milliarden, die gerade die italienische Staatskasse sich nicht leisten kann. Schließlich steht sie selbst mit 2,2 Billionen Euro in der Kreide und überschreitet damit die erlaubte Verschuldungsgrenze der Euroländer um ganze 65 Prozent.

Doch merkwürdig: Die teuren Deals zu Lasten der Steuerzahler gingen fast reibungslos über die Bühne. Erst gaben die Aufseher der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) grünes Licht. Dann genehmigte die EU-Kommission die teuren Subventionen, und am Montag erteilten auch die Finanzminister der Eurogruppe ihren Segen.

Und so liefern die Lenker der Europäischen Währungsunion erneut ein Lehrstück in Sachen Versagen und Vertuschung ab, wie es sich die Anti-Europäer in Italien und anderswo gar nicht besser hätten wünschen können. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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As long as the government stays in denial about Brexit’s drawbacks, the country is on course for disaster

Posted by hkarner - 22. Juli 2017

Date: 20-07-2017
Source: The Economist
Subject: Britain faces up to Brexit

CRISIS? What crisis? So many have been triggered in Britain by the vote a year ago to leave the European Union that it is hard to keep track. Just last month Theresa May was reduced from unassailable iron lady to just-about-managing minority prime minister. Her cabinet is engaged in open warfare as rivals position themselves to replace her. The Labour Party, which has been taken over by a hard-left admirer of Hugo Chávez, is ahead in the polls. Meanwhile a neurotic pro-Brexit press shrieks that anyone who voices doubts about the country’s direction is an unpatriotic traitor. Britain is having a very public nervous breakdown.

The chaos at the heart of government hardly bodes well for the exit negotiations with the EU, which turned to detailed matters this week and need to conclude in autumn 2018. But the day-to-day disorder masks a bigger problem. Despite the frantic political activity in Westminster—the briefing, back-stabbing and plotting—the country has made remarkably little progress since the referendum in deciding what form Brexit should take. All versions, however “hard” or “soft”, have drawbacks. Yet Britain’s leaders have scarcely acknowledged that exit will involve compromises, let alone how damaging they are likely to be. The longer they fail to face up to Brexit’s painful trade-offs, the more brutal will be the eventual reckoning with reality. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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When elites appear ineffective, voters give radicals a chance

Posted by hkarner - 22. Juli 2017

Date: 20-07-2017
Source: The Economist: Free exchange
Subject: The power of populists

WITH the defeat of Marine Le Pen in her bid for the French presidency, establishment politicians in rich countries breathed a sigh of relief. The fortunes of extremist candidates have faltered since the populist surge that put Donald Trump into the White House. But it is hard to be confident that this was populism’s high-water mark without a better understanding of what caused the swell in the first place. The most convincing explanations suggest that populist upswings are not in the past.

It is tempting to dismiss the rise of radicalism as an inevitable after-effect of the global financial crisis. Studies show that the vote shares of extreme parties, particularly on the right, tend to increase in the years after a crisis. The Depression spawned some of the 20th century’s most dangerous and radical populist movements. But the facts do not fit that story precisely. In Europe, for example, populist parties have steadily won more voters since the 1980s. What is more, populist rage is rarely focused on finance. Trade and immigration are more prominent targets. The clearest recent manifestations of the populist surge—Mr Trump’s victory and Brexit—have only an indirect link to the financial crisis. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How to Reduce Germany’s Surplus

Posted by hkarner - 22. Juli 2017

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Nie wieder Finanzkrise?

Posted by hkarner - 22. Juli 2017

Von André Tomfort, Wiener Zeitung, 21/07/2017

  • Gastkommentar: Warum sich die Chefin der US-Notenbank fatal geirrt haben könnte.

Vor kurzem machte die Chefin der US-Notenbank, Janet Yellen, eine bemerkenswerte Aussage: Auf einer Pressekonferenz in London sagte sie, dass sie nicht mehr damit rechne, in ihrem Leben nochmals eine schwere Finanzkrise wie im Jahr 2008 zu erleben. Sie begründete ihren Optimismus mit den Reformen des Finanzsystems und damit, dass die Banken jetzt krisenfest seien.

Können wir der Fed-Chefin wirklich glauben? Der Sturm der vergangenen Finanzkrise ist abgeebbt, und die Aktien- und Immobilienmärkte bewegen sich in einem langfristigen Aufwärtstrend. Dies ist nicht zuletzt der expansiven Geldpolitik von Yellen und ihren Kollegen in der Eurozone und in Asien zu verdanken. Knapp ein Jahrzehnt lang rekordtiefe Zinsen verfehlen ihre Wirkung an den Finanzmärkten nicht, und auch die globale Konjunktur hat seit einiger Zeit wieder an Fahrt aufgenommen. Trotzdem ist die Nervosität überall zu spüren, und viele Anleger fragen sich: „Wo stehen wir heute? Und wie sicher sind unsere Anlagen?“

Die Immobilienkrise 2008 und 2009 war kein Einzelfall Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Middle East’s Next War

Posted by hkarner - 21. Juli 2017

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Google’s AI Guru Says That Great Artificial Intelligence Must Build on Neuroscience

Posted by hkarner - 21. Juli 2017

Date: 21-07-2017
Source: Technology Review

Inquisitiveness and imagination will be hard to create any other way.

Demis Hassabis knows a thing or two about artificial intelligence: he founded the London-based AI startup DeepMind, which was purchased by Google for $650 million back in 2014. Since then, his company has wiped the floor with humans at the complex game of Go and begun making steps towards crafting more general AIs.

But now he’s come out and said that be believes the only way for artificial intelligence to realize its true potential is with a dose of inspiration from human intellect.

Currently, most AI systems are based on layers of mathematics that are only loosely inspired by the way the human brain works. But different types of machine learning, such as speech recognition or identifying objects in an image, require different mathematical structures, and the resulting algorithms are only able to perform very specific tasks.

Building AI that can perform general tasks, rather than niche ones, is a long-held desire in the world of machine learning. But the truth is that expanding those specialized algorithms to something more versatile remains an incredibly difficult problem, in part because human traits like inquisitiveness, imagination, and memory don’t exist or are only in their infancy in the world of AI. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Capital accumulation, private property, and inequality in China, 1978-2015

Posted by hkarner - 21. Juli 2017

Thomas Piketty, Li Yang, Gabriel Zucman 20 July 2017, vox.eu

Between 1978 and 2015, China moved from a poor, underdeveloped country to the world’s leading emerging economy. Despite the decline in its share of world population, China’s share of world GDP increased from less than 3% in 1978 to about 20% by 2015 (Figure 1). According to official statistics, real national income per adult grew more than eightfold between 1978 and 2015. While the average national income per adult was approximately €120 per month in 1978 (expressed in 2015 euros), it exceeded €1,000 per month in 2015 (Figure 2).1 Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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