Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

US and China: From Co-Evolution to Decoupling

Posted by hkarner - 9. Dezember 2018

Date: 08-12-2018
Source: YaleGlobal by Vincent Ni

Henry Kissinger secretly visited China in 1971 to restore US ties, and the Chinese have respected him since. With a trade war underway and US concerns about intellectual property theft, the relationship has soured and transformed: from co-evolution, described by Kissinger as pursuit of domestic imperatives and cooperating as possible to decoupling. “The parochial outlook in the United States and the growing nationalism in China is heading toward disengagement,” explains Vincent Ni, journalist and 2018 Yale Greenberg World Fellow. Ni describes this as disruptive and dangerous, forcing countries to choose sides. Ni urges Chinese and US leaders to develop new rules for 21st century trade, economics and technology while finding ways to cooperate and contribute to global public goods while coexisting militarily. As Kissinger suggested in his writings, a good relationship is essential for world peace and progress even as both nations pursue their own paths of exceptionalism. – YaleGlobal

As China’s economy steadily grows, its relationship with the United States has transformed from cooperative co-evolution to decoupling Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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News from Euroland – recession imminent

Posted by hkarner - 8. Dezember 2018

By
17 mins. to read

When the money tap went dry…

Across Europe, and particularly in the 18-member Eurozone, the economic news is sobering. It’s now clear that the credit crunch in emerging markets which has played out over most of this year, plus the slowdown in China, are having negative consequences in Europe. Yet, despite the ongoing trauma of Brexit, the UK is cruising along relatively smoothly – for now.

A number of critical events are about to coincide. Firstly, the ECB will cease printing money by means of quantitative easing (QE) in December. The principal measure of the money supply across Europe, M3, was growing by around 5 percent per year when the ECB was buying up to €80 billion of bonds a month in 2013. That rate slowed to 2.1 percent in Q3 this year and will prospectively fall to zero in Q1 2019.

QE was instigated by ECB President Mario Draghi who took over the reins on 1st November 2011. At the beginning of 2012, at the height of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, he pledged that the ECB would do everything it takes to save the Euro. First came a programme of soft loans to Eurozone banks (the so-called LRTO); then came a massive programme of government and then corporate bond-buying following the example set by America’s Federal Reserve in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Climate Action Trumps Trump

Posted by hkarner - 8. Dezember 2018

Laura Tyson, a former chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and a senior adviser at the Rock Creek Group.

Lenny Mendonca, Chairman of New America, is Senior Partner Emeritus at McKinsey & Company.

President Donald Trump continues to deny the realities of man-made climate change, even in the face of warnings by his own administration that it will impose massive costs on the US. Fortunately, in the absence of federal leadership, businesses, citizens, and state and local governments are taking action on an unprecedented scale.

BERKELEY – Now is not a good time to be a climate-change denier like US President Donald Trump, given all the recent evidence that the atmosphere is warming faster than expected. On the Friday after Thanksgiving, for example, Trump’s own government published a major report warning that unchecked climate change will impose massive economic and human costs on the United States. And that came on the heels of an alarming study by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that painted a dire picture of Earth’s near future. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Arrest of telecom giant’s CFO escalates U.S.-China tech battle

Posted by hkarner - 8. Dezember 2018

Date: 07-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject: U.S. Takes Aim at Huawei

Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, second from left, with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the company’s London offices in 2015.

The Trump administration’s efforts to extradite the chief financial officer of China’s Huawei Technologies Co. over criminal charges mark the start of an even more aggressive phase in the technology rivalry between the U.S. and China and will increase pressure on Washington’s allies to shun the telecommunications company.

Armed with a U.S. extradition request, Canadian authorities arrested Meng Wanzhou on Dec. 1, the same day as President Trump was holding a summit with Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping. But White House officials said Mr. Trump had no advance knowledge of the arrest, indicating the action was on a separate track from trade talks currently under way between Washington and Beijing.

Ms. Meng’s detention underscores a sense of urgency, at the Justice Department and other U.S. agencies, to address what they see as a growing threat to national security posed by China’s ambitions to gain an edge in the tech sector. For years, Washington has alleged the Chinese government could compel Huawei, which supplies much of the world with critical cellular network equipment, to spy or to disrupt communications. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Second Chance for Britain

Posted by hkarner - 8. Dezember 2018

Ian Buruma is the author of numerous books, including Murder in Amsterdam: The Death of Theo Van Gogh and the Limits of ToleranceYear Zero: A History of 1945, and, most recently,  A Tokyo Romance.

In 1950, the British reacted with a mixture of horror and disdain to the proposed European Coal and Steel Community, suspecting a French plot to lure a pragmatic people into some utopian foreign project. The basic arguments against “Europe” have not changed at all since then, unlike the consequences of acting on them.

NEW YORK – On May 9, 1950, when European countries were just beginning to emerge from the ruins of war, the French statesman Robert Schuman announced his plan to create the European Coal and Steel Community. By pooling these vital war materials under a common European authority, violent conflict between France and Germany would become unthinkable. The Germans were delighted. The Benelux countries and Italy would take part as well. A first step toward a European union had been taken. Shortly after Schuman’s announcement, the British were invited to join in the discussions.

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Tiefer Blick: Billiges Geld hat zu neuen Exzessen an den Finanzmärkten geführt

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Ein wesentlicher, sehr offener und mutiger Beitrag von Andreas Schnauder aus dem heutigen Standard (hfk)

Standard Tiefer Blick

 

 

 

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Hacking Health Care: How Tech Will Drive Down Costs

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Date: 07-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Gary Shapiro, president and CEO of Consumer Technology Association, explains how robots, sensors and AI will keep us healthy for less

Artificial intelligence, sensors and even digital assistants like Amazon’s Alexa could help keep down medical costs and improve care.

Human beings are safer today than at any time in history. We live more than twice as long as we did in 1900 thanks, in large part, to advances in technology. But our increased lifespan comes at a price. The U.S. spends $3.5 trillion each year on health care, and the federal government shoulders more than 28% of that cost. The Census Bureau projects that 20.6% of Americans will be over the age of 65 by 2030, compared to 15.24% in 2016. The U.S. is facing a retirement wave that will strain our health-care system. As head of CTA for three decades, I’ve watched the medical community use new technology to make advances in everything from diet science to disease detection. Much of this technology has not been widely tested, and some of it raises difficult questions about privacy and cybersecurity. But AI, sensors and even digital assistants like Amazon’s Alexa could help keep costs down and improve care. Here’s how.

Sensors Will Show Us Ourselves Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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From Economic Crisis to World War III

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Qian Liu

Qian Liu is an economist based in China.

The response to the 2008 economic crisis has relied far too much on monetary stimulus, in the form of quantitative easing and near-zero (or even negative) interest rates, and included far too little structural reform. This means that the next crisis could come soon – and pave the way for a large-scale military conflict.

BEIJING – The next economic crisis is closer than you think. But what you should really worry about is what comes after: in the current social, political, and technological landscape, a prolonged economic crisis, combined with rising income inequality, could well escalate into a major global military conflict.

The 2008-09 global financial crisis almost bankrupted governments and caused systemic collapse. Policymakers managed to pull the global economy back from the brink, using massive monetary stimulus, including quantitative easing and near-zero (or even negative) interest rates.

But monetary stimulus is like an adrenaline shot to jump-start an arrested heart; it can revive the patient, but it does nothing to cure the disease. Treating a sick economy requires structural reforms, which can cover everything from financial and labor markets to tax systems, fertility patterns, and education policies.

Policymakers have utterly failed to pursue such reforms, despite promising to do so. Instead, they have remained preoccupied with politics. From Italy to Germany, forming and sustaining governments now seems to take more time than actual governing. And Greece, for example, has relied on money from international creditors to keep its head (barely) above water, rather than genuinely reforming its pension system or improving its business environment. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The US-China trade truce: a time-out or a possible armistice?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

The US-China trade truce will become a time-out or an armistice pending on China’s response regarding technology policy​

The trade truce between the United States and China, announced after the dinner of the presidents of the two countries in Buenos Aires on Saturday after the G20 meeting, must be assessed in accordance to three different motivations that can be attributed to President Trump as reasons for starting the war. Although special attention has been given to immediate implications of the truce for the global macroeconomic environment and its impact on financial markets, it is important to keep in sight what it will take to become either a short time-out or a step to armistice.

The US-China bilateral trade clash has been a crucial moment in the transition from multilateralism to bilateralism in US foreign relations since the arrival of President Trump to power. Full multilateralism faced great difficulties during the Doha round of trade negotiations, in which complex negotiation processes required unanimity for approval and were vulnerable to blockades set by a few countries. The Obama administration initiated its replacement by plurilateral negotiations, with support from the countries involved, as proposed in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and a possible later agreement with European countries. President Trump buried such an initiative and has argued there are advantages for his country to negotiate on a bilateral basis. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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France Tops OECD Table as Most Taxed Country

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Date: 06-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Data comes a day after President Macron backed down from introducing a fuel tax increase following violent protests against the measure

France became the most heavily taxed of the world’s rich countries in 2017, according to figures published the day after President Emmanuel Macron backed off a fuel-tax increase that enraged much of the nation and sparked a grass-roots protest movement against his government.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s annual review of taxes in its 36 members published on Wednesday showed the French government’s tax revenues were the equivalent of 46.2% of economic output, up from 45.5% in 2016 and 43.4% in 2000. The Danish government’s tax take, which was the highest among OECD members between 2002 and 2016, fell to 46% of gross domestic product from 46.2% in the previous year and 46.9% in 2000.

The U.S. government’s tax revenues also rose relative to the size of the economy as a result of a one-off tax on accumulated profits earned by American businesses overseas. But at 27.1% of GDP, only five countries had a lower tax take: Mexico, Turkey, Chile, South Korea and Ireland. The OECD’s figures include taxes collected at state and local levels.

Before Tuesday’s climb down, Mr. Macron’s government had planned to raise fuel taxes in an effort to cut automobile pollution.

Economists say such consumption taxes that reduce pollution and other harmful effects are an efficient way for the government to raise revenue. But the planned move sparked the worst riots to hit Paris in decades on Saturday, leaving the city’s shopping and tourist center dotted with burning cars and damaged storefronts. Protesters vandalized the Arc de Triomphe, rattling Mr. Macron’s administration and the country.

The rise in French tax revenues was in line with a longstanding trend across wealthy countries. The average tax take across the organization’s members edged up to 34.2% of GDP in 2017 from 34% in 2016 and 33.8% in 2000 as governments continued efforts to narrow their budget gaps and limit the rise in their debts that followed the global financial crisis.

Of the 34 countries for which 2017 figures are available, 19 saw a rise in tax revenues relative to the size of their economy, with Israel reporting the largest increase. Mexico continued to record the lowest tax take at 16.2% of GDP, down from 16.6% in 2016.

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