Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Central Banks’

How not to weaken central banks’ independence

Posted by hkarner - 13. April 2019

Date: 11-04-2019
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

Why Stephen Moore and Herman Cain are poor picks for the Fed

There are more than a few echoes of the Nixon era in the presidency of Donald Trump. Monetary reverberations are among them. Facing re-election in 1972, Richard Nixon felt he needed a strong economy at his back, and made a habit of haranguing Arthur Burns, the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time. Burns recounted the meetings in his diaries: “The president looked wild; talked like a desperate man; fulminated with hatred against the press; took some of us to task…” Historians reckon Burns was too accommodating of Nixon’s demands, and so helped launch the inflation of the 1970s. Mr Trump is now waging his own assault on the Fed’s independence. He has repeatedly complained about the central bank’s decisions and urged it to take a more doveish stance.

More strikingly Mr Trump, who has already chosen three of the five sitting members of the Fed’s board of governors, has named Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to fill the remaining two vacancies. In contrast to candidates who have come before, both are political activists. But the parallel with the 1970s is less apt than it seems. There are different ways to politicise monetary policy, and Mr Trump’s is particularly poisonous. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Global Economy: A Delicate Moment

Posted by hkarner - 10. April 2019

By Gita Gopinath

A year ago, economic activity was accelerating in almost all regions of the world. One year later, much has changed. The escalation of US–China trade tensions, needed credit tightening in China, macroeconomic stress in Argentina and Turkey, disruptions to the auto sector in Germany, and financial tightening alongside the normalization of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies have all contributed to a significantly weakened global expansion, especially in the second half of 2018.

With this weakness expected to persist into the first half of 2019, our new World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects a slowdown in growth in 2019 for 70 percent of the world economy. Global growth softened to 3.6 percent in 2018 and is projected to decline further to 3.3 percent in 2019. The downward revision in growth of 0.2 percentage points for 2019 from the January projection is also broad based. It reflects negative revisions for several major economies including the euro area, Latin America, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia.

After the weak start, growth is projected to pick up in the second half of 2019. This pickup is supported by significant monetary policy accommodation by major economies, made possible by the absence of inflationary pressures despite growing at near potential. The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England have all shifted to a more accommodative stance. China has ramped up its fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter the negative effect of trade tariffs. Furthermore, the outlook for US–China trade tensions has improved as the prospects of a trade agreement take shape. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s Populists Covet Central Bank and Its Gold

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Date: 03-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Blaming the institution for the woes of ordinary Italians, lawmakers pursue a takeover

Some Italian politicians want to force the bank’s shareholders, mostly private banks, to sell their shares to the treasury.

ROME—Italy’s ruling populists pushed ahead this week with efforts to seize control of the central bank and its gold reserves, stepping up their confrontation with a symbol of the country’s establishment.

With two laws targeting the Bank of Italy under debate in parliament, the campaign is the latest attack on Italy’s independent institutions by leaders of the governing coalition, which is led by the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement and the nativist League.

The parties depict the central bank as a symbol of a technocratic elite aloof from the needs of ordinary Italians. Hundreds of thousands of small individual investors lost billions of dollars after several Italian banks failed in recent years, causing widespread anger against the Bank of Italy and previous governments. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s Quiet Central Banking Revolution

Posted by hkarner - 11. März 2019

Miao Yanliang

Miao Yanliang is a member of China Finance 40, a Beijing think tank.

Since Yi Gang became governor in March 2018, the People’s Bank of China has improved its communications, boosted its transparency, and moved toward a flexible exchange rate. Although the PBOC has plenty of room for further improvement, its progress so far is good news for China and international policymakers alike.

BEIJING – Fifteen years ago, Alan Blinder, a former vice chair of the US Federal Reserve System and a longtime professor of economics at Princeton, wrote a book entitled The Quiet Revolution about changes in central banking. Chief among these was a move by some central banks toward open communication and transparency, and away from their long-held tradition of secrecy and surprise. A central bank “goes modern,” to borrow from the subtitle of Blinder’s book, when it starts talking.

The Fed was slowly heading in this direction by the turn of the century. It finally began announcing its interest-rate decisions in 1994, and started issuing regular press releases in 2000 (though it did not hold regular press conferences until 2011). These changes reflected a new appreciation among central bankers of how changes in short-term policy rates work their way through the economy via expectations and market pricing. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A threat to the independence of Italy’s central bank

Posted by hkarner - 16. Februar 2019

Date: 14-02-2019
Source: The Economist

The country’s populist leaders alarm European bankers

The bank of italy has long been seen as one of a handful of efficient and incorruptible institutions that curb Italy’s anarchic tendencies. But on February 9th this august establishment came under fire from the two deputy prime ministers who call the shots in the populist government that is nominally led by Giuseppe Conte, the prime minister. Matteo Salvini, who leads the hard-right Northern League, said he wanted to “reboot” the senior management at both the central bank and the stockmarket regulator, Consob. Luigi Di Maio of the Five Star Movement (m5s) demanded “discontinuity”. Both alleged the Bank had failed to protect investors and deposit-holders. Two days earlier, the cabinet had refused to approve a further six-year term for Luigi Federico Signorini, the deputy director-general primarily responsible for banking supervision.

The attack sent ripples of apprehension through the euro zone amid media stories that the populist coalition wanted to get its hands on the Bank’s gold reserves, the third-largest of any country, to fund its expansionary fiscal policies. The president of the Eurogroup of finance ministers, Mario Centeno, and the eu commissioner for economic affairs, Pierre Moscovici, both pointedly stressed the need to preserve the independence of central banks in the single currency area.

On an optimistic interpretation, the threats were perhaps not meant to be taken too seriously. The coalition leaders’ remarks were addressed to a very specific audience: an assembly of stakeholders who lost money when two banks in the Veneto region were liquidated in 2017. The government has promised partially to reimburse them. But eu rules on state aid could yet prevent that. Inveighing against the central bank enabled the party leaders to win plaudits from an unhappy audience. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Central Bankers’ Fiscal Constraints

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2019

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

With policy interest rates near zero in most advanced economies (and just above 2% even in the fast-growing US), there is little room for monetary policy to maneuver in a recession without considerable creativity. But those who think fiscal policy alone will save the day are stupefyingly naive.

CAMBRIDGE – If you ask most central bankers around the world what their plan is for dealing with the next normal-size recession, you would be surprised how many (at least in advanced economies) say “fiscal policy.” Given the high odds of a recession over the next two years around 40% in the United States, for example – monetary policymakers who think fiscal policy alone will save the day are setting themselves up for a rude awakening.

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Financial supervisory architecture since the Global Crisis: Supervisory models remain diverse, but more powers for central banks

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

Daniel Calvo, Juan Carlos Crisanto, Stefan Hohl 23 November 2018, vox.eu

Daniel Calvo, Senior Economist, Central Bank of Chile
Juan Carlos Crisanto, Deputy Chair of the Financial Stability Institute, Bank for International Settlements
Stefan Hohl, Senior Advisor, Financial Stability Institute, Bank for International Settlements

Following the Global Crisis, a number of significant regulatory reforms have helped to improve both crisis prevention and crisis management systems. Yet an effective financial supervisory architecture is essential to optimise the positive effect of the post-crisis reforms. When referring to a financial supervisory architecture, we mean an institutional supervisory setup that: (i) assigns specific functions to individual financial authorities; (ii) establishes coordination and cooperation mechanisms among those authorities; and (iii) specifies other approaches and arrangements to avoid potential conflicts of mandates. Deciding on the above institutional issues generally entails trade-offs between synergies across functions and potentially conflicting goals. In addition, the choices are influenced by the structure of the financial sector, past experience with financial crises, and legal, historical, cultural and political economy considerations. Moreover, the effectiveness of a financial supervisory architecture is very much related to the financial authorities’ ability to act with clear objectives, operational autonomy, comprehensive and effective powers, sufficient resources and adequate incentives.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Central Bank Digital Currencies Will Destroy Cryptocurrencies

Posted by hkarner - 21. November 2018

 

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Leading economic policymakers are now considering whether central banks should issue their own digital currencies, to be made available to everyone, rather than just to licensed commercial banks. The idea deserves serious consideration, as it would replace an inherently crisis-prone banking system and close the door on crypto-scammers.

NEW YORK – The world’s central bankers have begun to discuss the idea of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), and now even the International Monetary Fund and its managing director, Christine Lagarde, are talking openly about the pros and cons of the idea.

This conversation is past due. Cash is being used less and less, and has nearly disappeared in countries such as Sweden and China. At the same time, digital payment systems – PayPal, Venmo, and others in the West; Alipay and WeChat in China; M-Pesa in Kenya; Paytm in India – offer attractive alternatives to services once provided by traditional commercial banks. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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IMF Chief Calls for Exploration of Digital Currencies

Posted by stgara - 20. November 2018

Nov 14, 2018 at 09:00 UTC, Coin Desk
NEWS

Christine Lagarde, managing director and chairwoman of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has encouraged the “exploration” of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in the light of decreasing demand for cash and rising preference for digital money.

In a prepared speech for the Singapore Fintech Festival on Wednesday, Lagarde said:

“I believe we should consider the possibility to issue digital currency. There may be a role for the state to supply money to the digital economy.”

Various central banks around the world are “seriously” considering the issuance of digital currency, including Canada, China, Sweden and Uruguay, she said. “They are embracing change and new thinking – as indeed is the IMF.”

Lagarde noted that major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, ethereum and XRP, are also “vying for a spot in the cashless world, constantly reinventing themselves in the hope of offering more stable value, and quicker, cheaper settlement.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A debate about central-bank independence is overdue

Posted by hkarner - 20. Oktober 2018

Date: 18-10-2018
Source: The Economist

In a low-inflation world, links between governments and monetary policymakers need rethinking

The federal reserve has heard worse. But when the president complains that it has gone “crazy” by tightening monetary policy, as Donald Trump did on October 10th, Americans fret that another norm is about to be overturned. An independent central bank is considered a pillar of a modern economy; presidents are supposed to mutter any criticisms they might have in private. But is that really for the best? Although Mr Trump’s complaints were not intended to start a high-minded debate, one is overdue.

Operational independence for central banks is relatively new. The principle grew out of work in the late 1970s and early 1980s by prominent economists working in the “rational expectations” school of economic thought, among them Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott, who were eventually awarded the Nobel prize. They considered the implications of people’s ability to look into the future and to anticipate the behaviour of self-interested politicians. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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