Posted by hkarner - 17. Februar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
With stocks, bonds, and commodities no longer rising together, asset allocation suddenly matters again
Asset classes with seemingly little in common, such as gold and technology stocks, are among the top performers in 2017 so far.
The tight synchronization that has characterized financial markets for much of the past decade is breaking down, presenting investors with opportunities and risks they haven’t grappled with in years.
Global stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities have parted ways in recent months, after largely rising in lockstep for most of the post-financial-crisis period.
Cross-asset correlation recently fell to its lowest level since 2006, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis of 34 indicators tracking the relative performance of different asset classes and regions.
Asset classes with seemingly little in common have shone in recent weeks. Gold, emerging-markets and technology stocks rank among the top performers in 2017 so far. The prices of government bonds issued by rich countries, after rallying to record highs in some cases last year, have declined sharply in the U.S. and Europe since mid-2016, as inflation has begun to pick up. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Bonds, Central Banks, Gold, Investment, Stocks, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 27. Januar 2017
Ludwig von Mises betont, wie wichtig es sei, den objektiven Tauschwert des Geldes zu sichern; denselben Sachverhalt würden wir heute als Erhaltung der Geldwertstabilität bezeichnen. Diese war von jeher aus zwei Richtungen gefährdet, durch Inflation – wenn das Geld seinen Wert verliert, man also mit der gleichen Geldmenge weniger Güter erwirbt -, oder durch Deflation, wenn sein Wert steigt, was keineswegs so erfreulich ist, wie es auf den ersten Blick scheint. In einer modernen Wirtschaft, wo Staat und Unternehmen in der Regel hoch verschuldet sind, wird Deflation zur akuten Gefahr, da beide dadurch gezwungen sind, ihre Schulden mit einem viel höheren Güteraufkommen zu begleichen. Das treibt Unternehmen reihenweise in den Bankrott.
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Central Banks, Deflation, digital currency, Geldschöpfung, Inflation, Jenner, von Mises | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 31. Dezember 2016
CAMBRIDGE – Only a small group of central banks refrain from intervening in the foreign-exchange market to stabilize their currencies’ exchange rate or coax it in the desired direction. Even when they do not intervene directly, their interest-rate policies are often formulated to be compatible with exchange-rate objectives. As a result, freely floating currencies are comparatively rare. This has important implications for the United States authorities as they confront a sharp rise in the dollar’s exchange rate.
When a potential or actual loss of confidence in the currency threatens to bring about large capital outflows, intervention usually takes the form of sales of foreign-exchange reserves to mitigate the magnitude or speed of depreciation. The People’s Bank of China’s ongoing reserve losses are a salient recent example. The most recent US intervention in foreign-exchange markets (which has been rare in general) to support a weak dollar dates back to 1992-1995. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: appreciaition, Central Banks, Dollar, Project Syndicate, Reinhart | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 2. November 2016
Otmar Issing, former Chief Economist and Member of the Board of the European Central Bank, is President of the Center for Financial Studies at Goethe University, Frankfurt, and the author of The Birth of the Euro.
NOV 1, 2016 Project Syndicate
FRANKFURT – The reputation of central banks has always had its ups and downs. For years, central banks’ prestige has been almost unprecedentedly high. But a correction now seems inevitable, with central-bank independence becoming a key casualty.
Central banks’ reputation reached a peak before and at the turn of the century, thanks to the so-called Great Moderation. Low and stable inflation, sustained growth, and high employment led many to view central banks as a kind of master of the universe, able – and expected – to manage the economy for the benefit of all. The depiction of US Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan as “Maestro” exemplified this perception.
The 2008 global financial crisis initially bolstered central banks’ reputation further. With resolute action, monetary authorities made a major contribution to preventing a repeat of the Great Depression. They were, yet again, lauded as saviors of the world economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Central Banks, ECB, Finanzkrise, Issing, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. Oktober 2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON
The worry is that politics, economics and finance are combining in a way that threatens to throw globalization in reverse, Simon Nixon writes
One of the biggest puzzles in the global economy right now is the slowdown in trade.
Since 2012, global trade has been growing at just 3% a year, less than half the rate in the previous three decades. Between 1985 and 2003, it grew twice as fast as global gross domestic product; in the last four years, trade has barely managed to keep pace, according to the International Monetary Fund.
What’s more, this slowdown has been across the board, affecting both developed countries and emerging economies, trade in services as well as goods.
The World Trade Organization is now forecasting that world trade will grow by just 1.7% this year, making this the first year in 15 years it has grown more slowly than the world economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Central Banks, Deglobalization, IMF, Nixon, Trade, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 27. September 2016
Stephen S. Roach
Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.
SEP 26, 2016,, Project Syndicate
NEW HAVEN – The final day of the summer marked the start of yet another season of futile policymaking by two of the world’s major central banks – the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Fed did nothing, which is precisely the problem. And the alchemists at the BOJ unveiled yet another feeble unconventional policy gambit.
Both the Fed and the BOJ are pursuing strategies that are woefully disconnected from the economies they have been entrusted to manage. Moreover, their latest actions reinforce a deepening commitment to an increasingly insidious transmission mechanism between monetary policy, financial markets, and asset-dependent economies. This approach led to the meltdown of 2008-2009, and it could well sow the seeds of another crisis in the years ahead.
Lost in the debate over the efficacy of the new and powerful tools that central bankers have added to their arsenal is the harsh reality of anemic economic growth. Japan is an obvious case in point. Stuck in what has been essentially a 1% growth trajectory for the last quarter-century, its economy has failed to respond to repeated efforts at extraordinary monetary stimulus. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: BoJ, Central Banks, Fed, Growth, Japan, Project Syndicate, Roach | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 27. September 2016
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.
SEP 26, 2016 Project Syndicate
NEW YORK – Since the global financial crisis of 2008, monetary policy has borne much of the burden of sustaining aggregate demand, boosting growth, and preventing deflation in developed economies. Fiscal policy, for its part, was constrained by large budget deficits and rising stocks of public debt, with many countries even implementing austerity to ensure debt sustainability. Eight years later, it is time to pass the baton.
As the only game in town when it came to economic stimulus, central banks were driven to adopt increasingly unconventional monetary policies. They began by cutting interest rates to zero, and later introduced forward guidance, committing to keep policy rates at zero for a protracted period. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Central Banks, Fiscal Policy, Growth, Infrastructure, Project Syndicate, QE, Roubini | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 21. September 2016
Posted on September 16, 2016 by Ellen Brown, Web of Debt Blog
Several central banks, including the Bank of England, the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve, are exploring the concept of issuing their own digital currencies, using the blockchain technology developed for Bitcoin. Skeptical commentators suspect that their primary goal is to eliminate cash, setting us up for negative interest rates (we pay the bank to hold our deposits rather than the reverse).
But Ben Broadbent, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, puts a more positive spin on it. He says Central Bank Digital Currencies could supplant the money now created by private banks through “fractional reserve” lending – and that means 97% of the circulating money supply. Rather than outlawing bank-created money, as money reformers have long urged, fractional reserve banking could be made obsolete simply by attrition, preempted by a better mousetrap. The need for negative interest rates could also be eliminated, by giving the central bank more direct tools for stimulating the economy.
The Blockchain Revolution
How blockchain works was explained by Martin Hiesboeck in an April 2016 article titled “Blockchain Is the Most Disruptive Invention Since the Internet Itself“:
The blockchain is a simple yet ingenious way of passing information from A to B in a fully automated and safe manner. One party to a transaction initiates the process by creating a block. This block is verified by thousands, perhaps millions of computers distributed around the net. The verified block is added to a chain, which is stored across the net, creating not just a unique record, but a unique record with a unique history. Falsifying a single record would mean falsifying the entire chain in millions of instances. That is virtually impossible. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in weitere Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Bitcoin, Blockchain, Brown, Central Banks, digital currency, Web of debt | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 6. September 2016
– John Maynard Keynes
Scientific research says that leaving your normal environment can stoke creativity. This is one reason organizations send managers and workers to off-site retreats and conferences. “Getting away from it all” seems to lubricate our brains.
You would think the effect might have been observable among the central bankers who attended the Federal Reserve’s recent Jackson Hole, Wyoming, retreat. Sadly, however, having reviewed the speeches and the interviews that came out of the gathering, I found few if any fresh ideas, or at least none that would truly be helpful. Even the calls for “reformed thinking” turned out to be just variations on the same old thinking. For instance, rather than targeting inflation at 2%, why can we not think about 4% inflation? Instead of worrying about GDP, couldn’t we worry about nominal GDP? As if such minor variations on old themes would make any real difference to employment or growth. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Central Banks, Fed, Jackson Hole, Mauldin | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 29. August 2016
Sensationell gut! (hfk)
Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten, Ronald Barazon | Veröffentlicht: 29.08.16 01:55 Uhr
Die neue Finanzkrise, von der immer wieder gewarnt wird, ist längst im Gang. Zahlreiche große Krisenherde üben ihre zerstörerische Wirkung bereits aus. Es kann jederzeit zur Explosion kommen, wenn nur eine Maßnahme zu einer fatalen Reaktion führt und sich als Funke erweist, der in ein Pulverfass fällt.
Jackson Hole könnte zum Black Hole für das Finanzsystem werden.
Auch Deutschland als Wirtschaftsprimus Europas ist vor einer europäischen Banken-Krise nicht gefeit. Der Internationale Währungsfonds fand Ende Juni harte Worte für die Deutsche Bank: „Unter den global tätigen Banken mit systemischer Bedeutung scheint die Deutsche Bank am stärksten zu systemischen Risiken beizutragen.“
Die Notenbanker haben sich in Jackson Hole als hilflos erwiesen. Statt zu agieren, wollen sie den bekannten, falschen Weg weitergehen – wohl bis zum bitteren Ende.
Die Verantwortlichen könnten reagieren. Könnten. Es hat aber nicht den Anschein, als ob in der EU-Kommission, im EU-Parlament oder in der EZB die Dimension der Gefahr erkannt wird. Bis vor kurzem haben sich auch die Unternehmerverbände und die Finanzwirtschaft nicht mit angemessenen Warnungen zu Wort gemeldet. Mittlerweile sind die Probleme so gravierend geworden, dass die Alarmrufe immer zahlreicher und deutlicher werden.
Der Katalog der Krisenherde ist lang. Die Liste der notwendigen Korrekturen etwas kürzer.
Krisenherd Nummer 1: Die niedrigen Zinsen ruinieren die Sparer
Die von der Europäischen Zentralbank unter Präsident Mario Draghi erzwungenen Niedrigzinsen belasten alle Vorsorge-Maßnahmen. Die Sparguthaben sind unattraktiv. Die klassischen Lebensversicherungen können in der gewohnten Form nicht mehr angeboten werden, bei den bestehenden Verträgen ist die Einhaltung der Kapital- und Renten-Garantien unter Druck. Hier finden eine stille Enteignung der Sparer und eine Demontage der Altersvorsorge statt.
Krisenherd Nummer 2: Die offizielle Enteignung der Einleger Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Banking Union, Barazon, Basel III, Central Banks, Debt, DWN, Finanzkrise, Jackson Hole, MIFID | Leave a Comment »