Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Central Banks’

(K)EINE FINANZKRISE ZU LEBZEITEN

Posted by hkarner - 10. August 2017

FURCHE-Kolumne 221   Wilfried Stadler

Janet Yellen, Präsidentin der amerikanischen Notenbank, sorgte kürzlich für mediale Aufmerksamkeit, als sie zehn Jahre nach Beginn der Marktturbulenzen vom Sommer 2007 den Ausbruch einer neuerlichen großen Finanzkrise „zu unseren Lebzeiten“ ausschloss. Die Reaktionen auf ihre optimistische Prognose waren überwiegend skeptisch – und das hat gute Gründe.

Zum einen sind Notenbanker selbst dann, wenn sie es besser wüssten, zu beruhigenden Sätzen verpflichtet, um das Vertrauen in die Stabilität der Finanzmärkte nicht zu gefährden. Zum anderen geraten sie mit ihren Standard-Theorien seit der Finanzkrise in fundamentale Erklärungsnöte. Das wiederum macht verlässliche Aussagen über Wirkungen und unerwünschte Nebenwirkungen geldpolitischer Maßnahmen schwieriger denn je. Von einer neuen Normalität kann jedenfalls noch lange keine Rede sein, auch wenn ein Arsenal von früher undenkbaren Sondermaßnahmen der Notenbanken derzeit für so etwas wie Ruhe auf den Finanzmärkten sorgt. Ob es eine Ruhe vor dem Sturm gewesen ist, weiß man immer erst danach.

Ein Blick auf zwei der wichtigsten Handlungsfelder zeigt, dass wir ein Realexperiment mit unsicherem Ausgang erleben: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Coming Financial Volatility

Posted by hkarner - 25. Juli 2017

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The New Abnormal in Monetary Policy

Posted by hkarner - 11. Juli 2017

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Prepare for Turbulence

Posted by hkarner - 9. Juli 2017

July 9, 2017

– Alice Rivlin

“The central bank needs to be able to make policy without short-term political concerns.”

– Ben Bernanke

“… from the standpoint of the overall economy, my bottom line is we’re watching it closely but it appears to be contained.

– Ben Bernanke, repeatedly, in 2007

“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know, probably that would be going too far, but I do think we’re much safer, and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes, and I don’t believe it will be.”

– Janet Yellen, June 27, 2017 Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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European Central Banks Face Added Political Constraints

Posted by hkarner - 4. Juli 2017

Date: 03-07-2017

Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

The banks’ own rules, along with wider political trends and mixed economic signals complicate any move to tighten policy

Central bankers around the world are grappling with a common problem: when and how to normalize monetary policy at a time of normal levels of economic growth, normal levels of unemployment but abnormal levels of wage growth that is keeping inflation lower than their economic models predict.

Policy makers at the European Central Bank and Bank of England are facing political challenges that are making their task even harder.

At the ECB, the political constraint is its own self-imposed rules setting limits on the size and scale of its quantitative easing program. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Getting Fiscal Stimulus and Central Bank Independence In Synch

Posted by hkarner - 12. Mai 2017

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The $9 Trillion Question: What Happens When Central Banks Stop Buying Bonds?

Posted by hkarner - 11. Mai 2017

Date: 10-05-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Central banks have been the world’s biggest buyers of government bonds and may soon turn into sellers

Recent data showed that the European Central Bank holds total assets of $4.5 trillion, more than any other central bank ever. Above, the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt.

Central banks have been the world’s biggest buyers of government bonds and may soon turn into sellers—a tidal shift for global markets. Yet investors can’t agree on what that shift will mean.

Part of the problem is that there is little agreement about how the massive stimulus policies, known as quantitative easing or QE, affected bonds in the first place. That makes it especially hard to assess what happens when the tide changes. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How to preserve the benefits of central-bank autonomy

Posted by hkarner - 28. April 2017

Date: 27-04-2017
Source: The Economist

Twenty years after the Bank of England was given independence, the powers of central banks are in the spotlight

ON MAY 6th 1997 Gordon Brown, freshly installed as Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer, announced that he was giving the Bank of England the responsibility for setting interest rates. The bank would be charged with meeting an inflation target set by the government.

The move was hailed as a political masterstroke. It gave substance to the new Labour government’s claims to economic competence. Long-term borrowing costs fell sharply. The pound soared. The bank’s governor, Eddie George, was delighted. But joy was not unconfined. Within weeks Mr Brown, wary of an over-mighty central bank, stripped it of its responsibilities for bank regulation and public-debt management. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Two Things That Keep Central Banks’ Reserve Managers Awake at Night

Posted by hkarner - 31. März 2017

Posted on by iMFdirect

By Veronica Bacalu, Vincent Fleuriet, and Asad Qureshi

One of the central bank’s roles is to manage a country’s international reserves. But, central bank reserve managers have been losing sleep over two main issues: low interest rates, and how best to communicate the choices they make. 

Central banks’ reserve managers decide on how to invest central banks’ international reserves, what to invest in, and when. The overarching investment objective is to help preserve the external value of the domestic currency. They base this objective on three main pillars: preserving the capital of the investments, ensuring the liquidity of assets—how tradable they are—and earning a return.

Even though many countries’ economies are recovering after the global financial crisis, many reserve managers are still fretting. We wanted to know why. So we asked 63 central banks from advanced, emerging, and low-income countries about the reasons behind their worries. Their answers revealed a lot and were quite similar. We pulled together the results and here are the top two things reserve managers worry about. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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As Easy-Money Era Winds Down, Investors Bet on Growth

Posted by hkarner - 20. März 2017

Date: 19-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Exuberant U.S. markets are in some cases offsetting central banks’ shift away from low rates

Global stock markets as a whole have rallied over the past half year.

Central banks around the world are signaling a move away from ultra-easy money, but financial markets are responding as if the low-interest-rate party isn’t stopping.

A day after the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates a quarter percentage point, the People’s Bank of China raised a suite of key short-term interest rates and the Bank of England signaled that an increase in rates may not be far off. Turkey also raised a lending rate, while central banks in Japan, Norway and Indonesia held rates steady.

The events marked a striking turn from the low-interest-rate policies many central banks ushered in as recently as last year to spur markets and slow-growing economies. Low rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow, spend and invest and tend to push up the value of asset prices like stocks. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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