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Posts Tagged ‘Stocks’

The markets are quiet. Too quiet?

Posted by hkarner - 20. Mai 2017

Date: 18-05-2017
Source: The Economist by Buttonwood

The low level of a popular measure of volatility causes alarm

HAN SOLO, a hero from the Star Wars movies, has a habit of saying, at tense moments, “I have a bad feeling about this.” Many commentators are echoing this sentiment after a recent fall in the Volatility Index, or Vix, below ten. Their fears deepened on May 17th, when the Vix lurched above 15 and American stockmarkets had their worst day in eight months. Incessant turmoil in the White House at last seemed to take its toll.

A low Vix reading is usually seen as a sign of investor complacency. The previous two occasions on which the index fell below ten were in 1993 and early 2007 (see chart). One preceded the bond market sell-off of 1994 and the other occurred just before the first stages of the credit crisis.

The value of the Vix relates to the cost of insuring against asset-price movements via the options market. An option gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy (a call) or sell (a put) an asset at a given price before a given date. In return, like anyone buying insurance, the purchaser pays a premium.

The price of this premium is set by supply and demand, reflecting the views of the purchaser and the person who sells, or writes, the option. A number of factors determines its size. One is the relationship between the market price and the exercise price; if the market price is $10, then the right to buy the asset at $5 must cost at least $5. Another is the length of the options contract; the longer the time period, the greater the chance that prices will move enough to make the option worth exercising and the higher the premium. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Megabetrug von Bankern und Börsianern in Deutschland aufgedeckt

Posted by hkarner - 18. April 2017

Bei sogenannten Cum-Ex-Geschäften soll es um mehr als zehn Milliarden Euro gehen. Die Beteiligten sollen sich Steuern vom Fiskus erstatten haben lassen, die nie bezahlt worden waren.

Die Behörden im deutschen Bundesland Nordrhein-Westfalen haben einen Ring von Bankern und Börsenhändlern aufgedeckt, der den Fiskus um mehr als zehn Milliarden Euro betrogen haben soll. Wie Medien am Dienstag berichteten, sagten mehrere Insider bei der Staatsanwaltschaft Köln und dem Landeskriminalamt aus, was sie über die dubiosen Aktiengeschäfte wissen und nannten Namen von Akteuren.

Die Aussagenden erhoffen sich laut dem Bericht von NDR, WDR und „Süddeutsche Zeitung“ einen Strafnachlass oder Straffreiheit – denn in den Fällen wegen schwerer Steuerhinterziehung drohen mehrjährige Haftstrafen. Die beteiligten Banken und Börsenhändler sollen den Angaben zufolge mit Unterstützung von Anwaltskanzleien riesige Aktiengeschäfte dazu genutzt haben, sich von Finanzämtern Steuern erstatten zu lassen, die zuvor gar nicht an den Fiskus gezahlt worden waren.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Stock Market Valuations and Hamburgers

Posted by hkarner - 10. April 2017

By John Mauldin, April 9, 2017 

To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with everything in life they will be buying — – except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don’t like them anymore.

– Warren Buffett, Fortune magazine: “The Wit and Wisdom of Warren Buffett”

A few weeks ago I spent two days giving multiple speeches alongside my friend Steve Blumenthal of CMG in a very cold New Jersey on the heels of a rather strong blizzard that had left the countryside white and beautiful. I listened to Steve do deep dives on stock market valuations. He started each of his presentations with Warren Buffett’s hamburger story, quoted above, before jumping into multiple charts. After a while, we began to go back and forth during his presentations, as I had my own insights on market valuations, generally in sync with his. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Börsen: Nach Traumstart 2017 droht jetzt der Crash

Posted by hkarner - 3. April 2017

veröffentlicht am 3. 4. 2017 von , trend.at 

Die Börsen sind im ersten Quartal 2017 abgegangen wie die Raketen. Viele Börsen notierend nahe oder am Allzeithoch. Die Bilanz und warum es jetzt an den Börsen kritisch werden könnte.

 Der Dax notiert nahe dem Rekordhoch von 12.390 Zählern vom April 2015. Seit Jahresanfang sprang das deutsche Aktienbarometer um mehr als sieben Prozent in die Höhe. Im vergangenen Jahr betrug der Zuwachs über 23 Prozent. Der MDax, der Index mit den mittelgroßen deutschen Werten, setzte seinen Rekordlauf mit einer neuen Bestmarke fort. Der US-Aktienindex S&P ist ebenfalls in Fahrt. Seit Anfang des Jahres legte dieser um 5,3 Prozent zu.

Die Rallye-Stars seit Jahresbeginn im Überblick:

Die Wertentwicklung seit Beginn 2017:

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U.S. Stocks Overvalued? Time to Look at Europe

Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2017

Date: 23-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Balance of political risks seems to have shifted

The market’s political pendulum may be swinging back. Hope for U.S. President Donald Trump’s new administration has been driving U.S. markets, while fear of populist upheaval has gripped Europe. The balance of risks are now shifting in Europe’s favor.

Tuesday’s 1.2% drop in the S&P 500 is mostly notable for how long it has been since the market has seen such an event. The last time the index fell more than 1% was in October. But it also represents a challenge to a market that has been running on hopes for good things to happen, namely optimism about corporate tax reform and growth. Bond markets have been more circumspect, with yields locked in a relatively narrow range since December.

By contrast, the conversation in Europe has been all about avoiding bad things, especially the risks posed by 2017’s electoral calendar. The French presidential elections are set to dominate headlines in the next two months, but the closely watched Dutch vote passed without drama. And meanwhile, the European economy has been moving ahead. In February, IHS Markit’s eurozone composite purchasing managers index hit a near six-year high at 56. The European Central Bank has started to sound more confident as the threat of deflation has passed. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bond-Yield Rebound Poses a Threat to Stock Rally

Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2017

Date: 20-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Higher bond yields, whether they signal a healthy economy or stretched stock valuations, appear to have staying power, analysts say

U.S. bond yields are topping a key measure of the dividends that large U.S. companies pay—a shift that has broad implications for investors who have viewed higher stock yields as underpinning an eight-year-long bull market.

At 2.50%, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note on Friday exceeded the 1.91% dividend yield on the S&P 500, according to FactSet. The dividend figure reflects annualized payouts by companies in the index as a proportion of their current share price.

Rising bond yields generally send a signal that the economy is healthy and that demand for goods and services is rising. But increases in long-term yields over time also stand to shift investor preferences that recently have been strongly skewed in favor of stock investments. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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As Easy-Money Era Winds Down, Investors Bet on Growth

Posted by hkarner - 20. März 2017

Date: 19-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Exuberant U.S. markets are in some cases offsetting central banks’ shift away from low rates

Global stock markets as a whole have rallied over the past half year.

Central banks around the world are signaling a move away from ultra-easy money, but financial markets are responding as if the low-interest-rate party isn’t stopping.

A day after the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates a quarter percentage point, the People’s Bank of China raised a suite of key short-term interest rates and the Bank of England signaled that an increase in rates may not be far off. Turkey also raised a lending rate, while central banks in Japan, Norway and Indonesia held rates steady.

The events marked a striking turn from the low-interest-rate policies many central banks ushered in as recently as last year to spur markets and slow-growing economies. Low rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow, spend and invest and tend to push up the value of asset prices like stocks. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Markets: will the Trump rally go on?

Posted by hkarner - 7. März 2017

Date: 06-03-2017
Source: The Economist

The post-election stockmarket surge continues apace. Hopes are so high for corporate tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending from Donald Trump that investors have been willing to ignore the tweetstorms and the continuing revelations of his team’s Russian connections.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 20,000 for the first time in January, and exceeded 21,000 last week. Yet global markets face many challenges in the next few weeks. The Federal Reserve is hinting at an interest-rate increase later this month; elections in the Netherlands and France could see strong showings from far-right (and anti-euro) parties; and both the European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China may reduce the pace of credit expansion. There is also plenty of scope for American GDP growth to fall short of inflated hopes; the Atlanta Fed’s model points to an annualised rise of just 1.8% in the first quarter. Hold on tight.

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Warum Wien dauerhaft Schlusslicht unter den Börsen ist

Posted by hkarner - 28. Februar 2017

Alexander Hahn, 28. Februar 2017, 09:53 derstandard.at

Wiens Börse weist bei Aktien und Anleihen seit 1900 unter 23 Nationen die schwächsten Erträge auf

Wien – Bei österreichischen Aktien ist seit der Finanzkrise Sand im Getriebe. Während die Wall Street und die Londoner Börse sich nahe Rekordniveaus bewegen, liegt der Wiener Leitindex mit minus 45 Prozent um fast die Hälfte unter seinem Höchststand des Jahres 2007. Doch das schwache Abschneiden von Wiener Aktien beschränkt sich nicht auf das vergangene Jahrzehnt, wie eine Studie der Credit Suisse für den Zeitraum 1900 bis 2016 belegt. Der heimische Markt zeigt inflationsbereinigt nicht nur bei Aktien das langfristig schwächste Ergebnis unter 23 Nationen, sondern auch bei Anleihen. Bloß 0,8 Prozent an jährlicher realer Rendite haben österreichische Aktien laut Berechnungen der Credit Suisse im Mittel abgeworfen, verglichen mit einem weltweiten Durchschnitt von 5,1 Prozent.

Die langfristige Bilanz hat zunächst die Hyperinflation der frühen 1920er-Jahre schwer beschädigt, als bei Anleihen mit einem Verlust von 98 Prozent beinahe der ganze Kapitalstock vernichtet wurde. Folglich liegt Österreich auch bei Schuldtiteln mit einem realen Minus von 3,7 Prozent – jährlich, wohlgemerkt – an letzter Stelle. Weltweit erzielten Anleihen im Mittel plus 1,8 Prozent an realem Jahresertrag. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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It’s Like the Financial Crisis Never Happened…

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2017

Date: 23-02-2017
Source: The Economist

A decade since the U.S. subprime crisis began, and everything’s wonderful on Wall Street

wall-street-ccA decade after the world began to notice the losses on derivatives linked to the toxic waste of structured subprime mortgages, American stocks have produced such big returns that the biggest crash in generations barely registers.

The 10-year average compound return on U.S. shares was 4.9% a year after inflation at the start of 2016, only slightly below the average for world stocks since the end of the Gilded Age in 1900, according to calculations for Credit Suisse by Elroy Dimson,Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School.

The same isn’t true for the rest of the world. British stocks made only 3% after inflation, including dividends, in the past decade, while real Japanese returns were barely positive and French shares delivered less than 2%. German stocks weren’t quite so bad thanks to its export powerhouses, and their 4.3% return adjusted for inflation is in line with the very long-term return from the world outside the U.S.

This global divergence is covered up by the record highs of global stocks in the past week. On Wednesday morning in London the MSCI All-Country World index was setting another new high after breaking the 2015 high a week ago. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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