Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Stocks’

„Haben Höhepunkt vielleicht schon gesehen“

Posted by hkarner - 17. Juli 2018

BlackRock-Experte Martin Lück hält US-Aktien für relativ attraktiv. Eine Rezession sollte es nicht vor 2020 geben.

Wien. Der Handelskonflikt ist dieser Tage auch an den Börsen das dominierende Thema. Zu Recht? Martin Lück, Chef-Investmentstratege für Deutschland, Österreich und Mittel- und Osteuropa beim Vermögensverwalter BlackRock, rechnet nicht mit einem ausgewachsenen Handelskrieg. Es handle sich eher um Wahlkampfgetöse, das bis zu den US-Kongresswahlen im November anhalten werde.

Für gefährlicher hält Lück das Überhitzungsrisiko durch die US-Steuerreform und die Gefahr, dass die Zentralbank die Zinsen schneller anheben muss als geplant. In Europa drohe ein Konflikt mit der italienischen Regierung, auch das Risiko eines harten Brexits sei nicht vom Tisch. Dass Europas Wirtschaft der US-Wirtschaft vier Jahre hinterherhinke, bedeute nicht, dass sie auch vier Jahre später in eine Rezession schlittern würde.

Vor diesem Hintergrund hält Lück US-Aktien derzeit für attraktiver als europäische. „Ihre Gewinne werden von der Steuerreform angetrieben, die Kurse profitieren von Aktienrückkäufen.“ Dieser Effekt sollte bis 2019 wirken. In Europa hingegen habe sich das Wachstum in der ersten Jahreshälfte etwas abgeschwächt. Hinzu komme, dass die europäischen Unternehmen stärker im Welthandel exponiert sind und daher mehr unter dem Handelskonflikt leiden. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Facebook, Google Aren’t Tech Stocks? What That Means for Investors

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juli 2018

Date: 02-07-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Changes by index providers mean that funds tracking the current telecom, tech and consumer-discretionary sectors will be forced to trade billions of dollars of shares to realign their holdings

The technology sector’s dominance of the stock market is about to face a big test.

Facebook Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. are expected to say goodbye in September to the highflying tech sector of the S&P 500. They will join a new communications-services group that will also house media giants such as Netflix Inc. and Comcast Corp. that now reside in the consumer-discretionary group.

This is far more than mere housekeeping on the part of an index provider. The revisions mean that funds tracking the current telecom, tech and consumer-discretionary sectors will be forced to trade billions of dollars of shares to realign their holdings before the moves become effective Sept. 28. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Most stockmarket returns come from a tiny fraction of shares

Posted by hkarner - 23. Juni 2018

Date: 21-06-2018
Source: The Economist: Buttonwood

Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google (FAANG) have been the motor of the S&P 500

IN his book about the use of language, “The King’s English”, Kingsley Amis describes a tug-of-war. On one side are “berks”, careless and coarse, who would destroy the language by polluting it. On the other side are priggish “wankers”, who would destroy it by sterilisation.

The battle lines look similar in investment. The divide is not on points of grammar but on attitudes towards a handful of modish companies, known as FAANG. These stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) have been the motor of the S&P 500 (see chart). All but Apple hit record highs on June 20th. Fill your boots is the attitude of coarse stockmarket berks. FAANG makes more sense than stocks in dying industries. For the prigs, the mania for FAANG stocks is as abhorrent as a split infinitive. The high-minded investor stands apart from the herd.

In matters of grammar, the unsure often follow the sticklers. They at least have rules. But they are often too rigid. Stockmarket sticklers can similarly lead others astray. For most investors, it is often a mistake to shun individual stocks simply because other people are keen on them.

A recent paper* by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University explains why. Since 1926, most stockmarket returns in America have come from a tiny fraction of shares. Just five stocks (Apple, ExxonMobil, Microsoft, GE and IBM) accounted for a tenth of all the wealth created for shareholders between 1926 and 2016. The top 50 stocks account for two-fifths of the total. More than half the 25,000 or so stocks listed in America in the past 90 years proved to be worse investments than Treasury bills.

The sway that FAANG stocks have held recently is not out of the ordinary. A new report by analysts at Macquarie, a bank, find that the clout of leading stocks in the S&P 500 has often been higher in the past. Mr Bessembinder’s results complement the verdict of another strain of research, which says that most stock returns are made on relatively few trading days. Just as it is important not to be out of the market on those days, it is important not to omit key stocks from your portfolio. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Decade Later, U.S. Stocks Behave Like Lehman Never Happened

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juni 2018

Date: 05-06-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The world’s financial system had its worst crisis in generations a decade ago, but U.S. stock-market returns belie that fact

If all you had to go on was the return on U.S. stocks over the past decade, you’d never guess that the world’s financial system had its worst crisis in generations, let alone that stocks had their biggest crash since World War II. The U.S. market has had a vintage 10 years, and returns—even including the calamity that was just appearing on the horizon in the summer of 2008—have been far better than the long-run norm.

An investor who simply bought the S&P 500 in June 2008 and ignored the market carnage that followed has scored gains of more than 9% annualized, including reinvested dividends, only fractionally below the average nominal return since 1900. But because inflation has been so low, real returns after inflation of 7.8% have been well above the long-term average for the U.S. market of 6.5% calculated by London Business School academics Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton.

The result is far different from what followed deep recessions and financial crashes in the 1930s and 1970s, when it took a decade or more for stocks just to recover to precrash levels in real terms, let alone make money. The question for investors is whether the speedy recovery from 2009 is an optimistic sign that things are better in the U.S. than generally believed, a demonstration of the ability of investors to ignore reality for extended periods, or a happy illusion created by the Federal Reserve.

The evidence provides partial support for each view. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Political Uncertainty in Italy, Spain Roils Markets

Posted by hkarner - 30. Mai 2018

Date: 29-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Stocks drop sharply, the euro falls against the dollar and Italian bond yields climb

Political worries about Italy and Spain gripped markets Tuesday, triggering sharp falls in stocks, a drop in the euro and big moves in bond markets.

The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 1.6% in morning trading, pulled lower by a 3.1% drop for Italy’s FTSE MIB and a 2.7% decline for Spain’s IBEX 35 index. The selloff looked set to spread to the U.S., with futures pointing to a 0.6% opening loss for the S&P 500.

The euro fell 0.6% to $1.1551 from its lowest settlement against the dollar since November, while Italian bond yields continued to climb.

The moves echoed declines in Europe on Monday, albeit in light trading with U.K. and U.S. market participants out for holidays.

Italian President Sergio Mattarella decided Sunday to block the formation of a euroskeptic government, reviving longstanding worries about the broader stability of the eurozone and a political crisis in a country with €2.3 trillion in debt. On Monday, as the two antiestablishment parties protested his decision, Mr. Mattarella picked an International Monetary Fund veteran, Carlo Cottarelli, as prime minister-designate.

“Having priced out the threat of fragmentation on the back of the [European Central Bank’s quantitative-easing program], recent events in Italy suggest the market has now very much begun to price such concerns back in,” strategists at Rabobank wrote in a note. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s Politics Fail to Rattle Its Financial Markets

Posted by hkarner - 14. Mai 2018

Date: 13-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

A likely government coalition, once considered a threat to the Italian economy and the eurozone, hasn’t stopped its stocks and bonds

Italy may be led by a coalition of the hard-right League party, led by Matteo Salvini, left, and the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement, led by Luigi Di Maio, right.

In Italy, a political pairing that investors once considered a worst-case scenario is set to become the new government, yet Italian stocks continue to outperform all other major developed markets this year.

The anticipated government coalition between the hard-right League party and the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement, a combination long considered by analysts to pose a major risk to the country’s economy and the eurozone itself, hasn’t stopped Italian stocks and bonds from outperforming.

The country’s headline stock index, the FTSE MIB, is up 11% this year, well above the eurozone’s broader Euro Stoxx 50 index and the S&P 500, each up around 2%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Stocks and Bonds Are Going Nowhere Fast, Stranding Investors

Posted by hkarner - 8. Mai 2018

Date: 07-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Despite a strong economy and robust corporate earnings, investors aren’t piling in—but they aren’t bailing either

Traders working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday after the U.S. Labor Department reported the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since December 2000.

U.S. stocks and bonds appear deadlocked despite a positive response to April’s “Goldilocks” jobs report, reflecting the conflicting impulses of a strong economy against rising interest rates and creeping fears about inflation.

Lingering concerns over the durability of the global growth story and the likelihood of tightening monetary policy have left many investors in a rut, neither inspired to pour money into the market nor convinced they should bail out just yet.

Markets’ inability to get a meaningful boost from the glut of strong corporate earnings over the past few weeks has sapped confidence further. And other events that likely would have jolted the markets last year, such as the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level in nearly two decades and Apple Inc. announcing an additional $100 billion in share buybacks, have failed to spark a sustained rally. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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For Many Investors, the Tech Rout Is ‘Nothing to Lose Sleep Over’

Posted by hkarner - 10. April 2018

Date: 09-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Some are calmly riding out the market’s turmoil, while others see an opportunity to buy shares of technology stars

When the rout in technology heavyweights like Facebook Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. spilled over into the broader market in late March, many feared that individual investors would flee for the exits, exacerbating the declines.

Instead, Alex Boucher, a 22-year-old college student in Westfield, Mass., added to his position in chip maker Nvidia Corp., seeing a chance to pick up the pricey stock at a discount.

San Jose, Calif.-based contractor Michael Chu, 34, shrugged off a $2,700 loss in his tech-heavy index-fund holdings, betting the technology selloff was “just one of those downturns that will pick back up.”

And in Dallas, portfolio manager Craig Hodges took only two phone calls from clients on a day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 500 points, a pittance compared with the 10 to 15 investors he would hear from daily at the peak of the 2008 financial crisis.

It isn’t that investors aren’t worried about the stock market: Roughly 37% of individual investors expect stocks to fall over the next six months, according to an American Association of Individual Investors survey, the highest share since September. And it isn’t that individuals don’t own technology shares, either: As investors have loaded up on index funds, many are more exposed to the tech sector than ever.
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can Big Tech Stocks Grow Without Limits?

Posted by hkarner - 8. April 2018

Date: 07-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Jason Zweig

Traditionally, the bigger companies have gotten, the harder it has become for them to keep growing at the same rate. Has that changed?

The more flippant the investing cliché, the more you should question it. Consider “the bigger they are, the harder they fall.”

At their lows this week, the technology shares that have until recently been the stock market’s darlings — Facebook, Amazon.com, Netflix, Google’s parent company Alphabet and other giants — had fallen more than 17% since March 13. Over the same period, U.S. stocks overall fell 8%.

At first, the drop in big tech stocks seems driven by bad news that is bound to worsen: Facebook improperly sharing personal data, President Trump criticizing Amazon, European regulators investigating potential antitrust violations. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Cashing In: Why Cash Should Be in Your Portfolio Again

Posted by hkarner - 6. April 2018

Date: 06-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

As volatility returns to the markets and interest rates rise, cash is turning out to be a safe asset

The Federal Reserve’s rate increases and the Trump administration’s fiscal profligacy have pushed up the yield on cash and cash-like instruments to the highest level in years.

Holding cash is investment heresy after a decade of the lowest interest rates in history. It is time to consider the sacrilegious and add cash back into portfolios.

The value of cash was demonstrated in the first quarter: Both stocks and bonds lost money—the first quarter that has happened since the aftermath of Lehman’s failure in 2008. Cash turned out to be the safe asset. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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