Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Stocks’

October Was a Month of Records in the Stock Market

Posted by hkarner - 2. November 2017

Date: 01-11-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The stock market kept notching new highs in October.

The Nasdaq Composite index had 12 record closes this month, the most in a month since December 2000 and the most ever for an October. The S&P 500 racked up  11 record closes, the most in a month in nearly three years and the most ever for an October, according to The Wall Street Journal’s Market Data Group.

The year’s 10th month is known as one of the more volatile, with big crashes having occurred in 1929, 1987, and 2008. But October turned out to be a smooth ride this year. The S&P 500 climbed 2.2%, the Nasdaq rose 3.6%, and the Dow industrials jumped 4.3%.

U.S. stocks have steadily marched higher for much of the year. The Dow has risen for seven consecutive months, the longest such streak in five years. The S&P is similarly up for seven months, the longest streak since 2013. The Nasdaq has now hit 62 record closes this year, matching its 1980 record for highs in a year.

And much like the rest of year, tech stocks led the way in October. The S&P 500 tech sector was up 7.7%, including a 2.9% surge on Friday. Its monthly performance was nearly double that of the next best sector, utilities, which was up 3.9%. Year to date, the tech sector is up 36%.

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Auch an der Börse Wien purzeln heute die Rekorde

Posted by hkarner - 16. Oktober 2017

Der Dow Jones auf neuem Rekordhoch, der Dax sicher über 13.000 Punkte – da gesellt sich auch die Wiener Börse mit etlichen Rekordkursen ins Rampenlicht dazu.

Die Rekordjagd an den Börsen geht ungebrochen weiter. Der Dow Jones in New York legte am Montag gleich mit einem neuen Allzeithoch von 22.934 Punkten los, der breiter gefasste S&P-500 mit dem Rekordwert von 2558 Zählern, die Technologiebörse Nasdaq mit bislang unerreichten 6627 Punkten. „Der Markt will weiter optimistisch sein“, sagte Robert Pavlik, Chef-Anlagestratege beim Vermögensverwalter Boston Private Wealth. Starke Quartalsbilanzen könnten grundsätzlich ein guter Grund sein, um Gewinne mitzunehmen. „Das ist aber nichts, was langfristig ausgerichtete Investoren beunruhigen sollte.“ Die große Mehrheit der Firmen hat bislang mit ihren Bilanz für das Sommerquartal die Erwartungen der Analysten übertroffen. In den nächsten Tagen werden zahlreiche weitere Ergebnisse erwartet.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Coming Bear Market?

Posted by hkarner - 22. September 2017

The US stock market today looks a lot like it did at the peak before all 13 previous price collapses. That doesn’t mean that a bear market is imminent, but it does amount to a stark warning against complacency.

NEW HAVEN – The US stock market today is characterized by a seemingly unusual combination of very high valuations, following a period of strong earnings growth, and very low volatility. What do these ostensibly conflicting messages imply about the likelihood that the United States is headed toward a bear market?

To answer that question, we must look to past bear markets. And that requires us to define precisely what a bear market entails. The media nowadays delineate a “classic” or “traditional” bear market as a 20% decline in stock prices. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Warren Buffett Says the Dow Is Going Over One Million

Posted by hkarner - 22. September 2017

Date: 21-09-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The Berkshire chairman predicts the blue-chip index will hit seven figures some time in the next century

Berkshire Hathaway Chairman Warren Buffett

You heard it from Warren Buffett first: the Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed above one million.

The blue-chip stock benchmark is likely to be above that milestone in a hundred years’ time, the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chief executive and chairman said Tuesday night. It sounds eye-popping, but judging by past history, it’s actually a fairly conservative bet.

“The Dow will be over a million and that is not a ridiculous forecast at all if you do the math,” he said.

It would take a 3.9% annual gain for the Dow to hit that benchmark in September of 2117. For context, the Dow has climbed 5.8% annually over the 100 years through Tuesday.

Mr. Buffett himself has managed to do far better. Berkshire’s latest annual report touts an annual return of 21% between 1965 and 2016 for Class A shares. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Stocks Are Crawling, Not Jumping, to New Records

Posted by hkarner - 25. August 2017

Date: 24-08-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn’t closed up 1% or more since April

U.S. stocks remain near their all-time highs even with some recent setbacks.

Just don’t thank big one-day moves for that.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hasn’t closed up 1% or more since April 25, which was 83 trading sessions ago. If it fails to do so again Wednesday, it’ll mark the longest such streak for the blue-chip index since the 102 trading days ending in March 2007.

It’s the latest sign of how dull stock trading has been for much of 2017. While major indexes have recently jumped in response to corporate earnings reports, perceived changes in the prospects for tax reform, and news around staffing changes at the White House, the moves have been largely muted–something some investors and analysts have attributed to the lukewarm enthusiasm for stocks in general. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Stock on Trumponomics

Posted by hkarner - 9. August 2017

Thanks to H.F. A great analysis (hfk)

2017 08 04 By Michael Hudson, Friday, August 4, 2017 
The Real News Network

“Trump is Turning Against the White Working Class that Elected Him,”

Rising stock prices is not an indicator of financial health like Trump would have you believe, specially when you examine who is buying that stock, says economist Michael Hudson, the author of J Is for Junk Economics.

SHARMINI PERIES: It’s the Real News Network. I’m Sharmini Peries coming to you from Baltimore. The rise of stock prices in the US stock market could be an indication of economic growth and prosperity, but it could also be an indication of the concentration of wealth of the rich and powerful. Which is it? To answer that question, we need to look at other economic indicators. In the press conference that President Trump had just a few days ago announcing his new chief of staff, General John Kelly, Trump took the opportunity to give himself credit for the rising stock prices. Let’s listen.

DONALD TRUMP: We’ve done very well, lots of records created, John. You look at stock market, the highest it’s ever been. Unemployment, lowest in 17 years. Companies are doing tremendously well. Business spirit is the highest it’s ever been, according to polls. You look at the polls, the highest it’s ever been in the history of these polls. We’re doing very well. We have a tremendous base. We have a tremendous group of support. The country is optimistic. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How “Shareholder Value” is Killing Innovation

Posted by hkarner - 2. August 2017

Yves here. Lazonink’s key points may seem a bit abstract at first, but they do get to the essence of the big defects of the “shareholder value” ideology.

By William Lazonick, Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts Lowell. Originally published at the Institute for New Economic Thinking website

Conventional wisdom holds that the primary function of the stock market is to raise cash that companies use to invest in productive capabilities. The conventional wisdom is wrong. Academic research on corporate finance shows that, compared with other sources of funds, stock markets in advanced countries have in fact been insignificant suppliers of capital to corporations. What, then, is their function? If we are to understand employment opportunity, income distribution, and productivity growth, we need an accurate analysis of the role of the stock market in the corporate economy.

The insignificance of the stock market as a source of real investment capital exposes as fallacious the fundamental assumptions of the prevailing ideology that, for the sake of economic efficiency, a business corporation should be run to “maximize shareholder value” (MSV). As a rule, public shareholders do not invest in a corporation’s productive capabilities; they simply buy shares outstanding on the market, hoping to extract value that they have played no role in helping to create. And in practice, MSV advocates modes of corporate resource allocation that undermine innovative enterprise and result in unstable employment, inequitable incomes, and sagging productivity. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Dividenden: Des Anlegers unterschätzter Freund

Posted by hkarner - 17. Juli 2017

Alexander Hahn, 16. Juli 2017, 10:00 derstandad.at

Ob als Beiwerk oder als ausgewählte Strategie: Dividenden sind für Anleger ein interessantes Instrument. Doch was sagt die Dividendenrendite aus, und wer bestimmt die Höhe?

Wien – Für viele Aktienanleger gelten Dividenden nur als willkommenes Beibrot, eigentlich hoffen sie jedoch auf üppige Kursgewinne. Dass diese selbst über längere Zeiträume keineswegs gewiss sind, zeigt die genaue Betrachtung des österreichischen Leitindex ATX und seines deutschen Pendants Dax in den vergangenen zehn Jahren. Während das Wiener Börsenbarometer mehr als ein Drittel unter dem Stand von 2007, also unmittelbar vor der Finanzkrise, notiert, hat der Dax heuer wieder neue Rekordmarken erklommen. Ein Plus von 56 Prozent steht seither zu Buche. Den Dax deshalb als Kursrakete zu betrachten täuscht jedoch, werden bei ihm doch als sogenannter Performanceindex – im Gegensatz zum ATX – die Dividenden der Unternehmen mit eingerechnet. Lässt man die Ausschüttungen außen vor und betrachtet allein die Kursentwicklung der Indexfirmen, ergibt sich ein wesentlich bescheideneres Bild. Dann kommen Anleger in zehn Jahren bloß auf knapp 13 Prozent Wertzuwachs. Diesen gewaltigen Unterschied, immerhin fast 43 Prozentpunkte in der Wertentwicklung, machen allein die Ausschüttungen der Unternehmen aus. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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When Everything Is Expensive, Not Investing Is a Great Option

Posted by hkarner - 27. Juni 2017

Date: 26-06-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Stocks are at record highs and bond yields exceedingly low. It is time to hoard cash for the next buying opportunity.

In a world where many markets look expensive, putting cash to work is hard. Simply hanging on to more of it might be a good idea.

That is particularly the case after the first half of 2017 has delivered good results across the board. Most strikingly, both bonds and stocks are up. The MSCI World index of developed-market stocks is up 9.7% so far this year, while long-dated bonds are also partying, with the 30-year Treasury yield falling around 0.25 percentage point to just 2.73%, boosting prices. Corporate-bond yield spreads are back to their tightest levels since the global financial crisis. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The markets are quiet. Too quiet?

Posted by hkarner - 20. Mai 2017

Date: 18-05-2017
Source: The Economist by Buttonwood

The low level of a popular measure of volatility causes alarm

HAN SOLO, a hero from the Star Wars movies, has a habit of saying, at tense moments, “I have a bad feeling about this.” Many commentators are echoing this sentiment after a recent fall in the Volatility Index, or Vix, below ten. Their fears deepened on May 17th, when the Vix lurched above 15 and American stockmarkets had their worst day in eight months. Incessant turmoil in the White House at last seemed to take its toll.

A low Vix reading is usually seen as a sign of investor complacency. The previous two occasions on which the index fell below ten were in 1993 and early 2007 (see chart). One preceded the bond market sell-off of 1994 and the other occurred just before the first stages of the credit crisis.

The value of the Vix relates to the cost of insuring against asset-price movements via the options market. An option gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy (a call) or sell (a put) an asset at a given price before a given date. In return, like anyone buying insurance, the purchaser pays a premium.

The price of this premium is set by supply and demand, reflecting the views of the purchaser and the person who sells, or writes, the option. A number of factors determines its size. One is the relationship between the market price and the exercise price; if the market price is $10, then the right to buy the asset at $5 must cost at least $5. Another is the length of the options contract; the longer the time period, the greater the chance that prices will move enough to make the option worth exercising and the higher the premium. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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