Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Project Syndicate’

Amerikas ungewöhnliche Konjunkturerholung ist jetzt auch seine längste

Posted by hkarner - 13. Juni 2019

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

LONDON – Im Laufe der kommenden Monate zur Veröffentlichung anstehende Daten werden zeigen, dass die derzeitige wirtschaftliche Expansion in den USA die längste seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen ist. Doch obwohl die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in den USA die anderer hochentwickelter Volkswirtschaften nach wie vor übertrifft, hat dieser Erfolg das von vielen Amerikanern empfundene anhaltende Gefühl wirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit und Frustration bisher nicht vertrieben, und auch die Sorgen über politischen Spielraum zur Reaktion auf die nächste Rezession oder finanzielle Erschütterung mildert es nicht.

Die aktuelle Wirtschaftsexpansion begann Mitte 2009 nach der Finanzkrise von 2008 und der „Großen Rezession“. Beflügelt zunächst durch außergewöhnliche fiskalpolitische Interventionen und eine zuvor undenkbare Geldpolitik, schuf die Konjunktur eine ausreichend starke Grundlage für die Rückkehr des Verbrauchervertrauens und die Erholung der Unternehmensbilanzen. Im Verbund mit sich beschleunigenden Fortschritten bei neuen Technologien ging die weitere Expansion dann weitgehend von Technologie- und Plattformunternehmen aus, die über eine neue „Gig Economy“ präsidierten. Einen zusätzlichen Schub erhielt sie durch wachstumsfreundliche Maßnahmen, zu denen Deregulierungsmaßnahmen und Steuersenkungen gehörten.Angesichts einer US-Arbeitslosenquote von 3,6% ist bei den (inflationsbereinigten) Reallöhnen nun ein Wachstum von 1,6% zu verzeichnen. Und laut den jüngsten Quartalsdaten, die an annualisiertes BIP-Wachstum von 3,1% zeigen, übertrifft die US-Wirtschaftsaktivität jene in Europa und Japan erheblich. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Unconventional Thinking about Unconventional Monetary Policies

Posted by hkarner - 13. Juni 2019

Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era.

Defenders of central-bank independence argue that quantitative easing should have been avoided last time and is best avoided in the future, because it opens the door to political interference with the conduct of monetary policy. But political interference is even likelier if central banks shun QE in the next recession.

KONSTANZ – The policy interest rates of advanced-country central banks are stuck at uncomfortably low levels. And not just for the moment: a growing body of evidence suggests that this awkward condition is likely to persist. Inflation in the United States, Europe, and Japan continues to undershoot official targets. Measures of the “natural” rate of interest consistent with normal economic conditions have been trending downward for years.

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What to Do About China?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juni 2019

Date: 06-06-2019
Source: by J. Bradford DeLong

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

By attempting to „get tough“ with China, US President Donald Trump’s administration is highlighting the extent to which America’s star has fallen this century. If the US ever wants to reclaim the standing it once had in the world, it must become the country it would have been if Al Gore had won the 2000 presidential election.

BERKELEY – In a recent issue of The New York Review of Books, the historian Adam Tooze notes that, “across the American political spectrum, if there is agreement on anything, it is on the need for a firmer line against China.” He’s right: On this singular issue, the war hawks, liberal internationalists, and blame-somebody-else crowd all tend to agree. They have concluded that because the United States needs to protect its relative position on the world stage, China’s standing must be diminished. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Parliament is Born

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juni 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

With the latest election, the European Parliament seems to have taken a small but important step toward becoming a true expression of Europeans’ popular will. While many issues are still decided in the European Council, the balance of authority between European and national leaders now seems to be less lopsided.

BRUSSELS – European Parliament elections used to be a boring affair, forsaken by voters and barely noticed by the media. But the latest election, held in the last weekend of May, broke the mold, capturing attention as it confounded expectations.

Voter turnout, which had been declining since the first European Parliament election in 1979, increased sharply this time, reaching just over 50%. That is not only the highest turnout for a European Parliament election in 20 years, it is also higher than the 40-50% typical of a mid-term congressional election in the United States. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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After Neoliberalism

Posted by hkarner - 31. Mai 2019

Date: 30-05-2019
Source: Project Syndicate by Joseph E. Stiglitz

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. He is the author, most recently, of People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent (W.W. Norton and Allen Lane).

For the past 40 years, the United States and other advanced economies have been pursuing a free-market agenda of low taxes, deregulation, and cuts to social programs. There can no longer be any doubt that this approach has failed spectacularly; the only question is what will – and should – come next.

NEW YORK – What kind of economic system is most conducive to human wellbeing? That question has come to define the current era, because, after 40 years of neoliberalism in the United States and other advanced economies, we know what doesn’t work.

The neoliberal experiment – lower taxes on the rich, deregulation of labor and product markets, financialization, and globalization – has been a spectacular failure. Growth is lower than it was in the quarter-century after World War II, and most of it has accrued to the very top of the income scale. After decades of stagnant or even falling incomes for those below them, neoliberalism must be pronounced dead and buried. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ein Leitfaden für Finanzkrisenmanager

Posted by hkarner - 30. Mai 2019

Howard Davies, the first chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority (1997-2003), is Chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland. He was Director of the London School of Economics (2003-11) and served as Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry.

EDINBURGH – Journalisten, so heißt es, verfassen „eine erste grobe Version der Geschichte”. Es ist ein großer Anspruch, aber die Besten unter ihnen kommen dem nahe. Während der Großen Finanzkrise 2008 gelang es Andrew Ross Sorkin von der New York Times mit seinem Buch Die Unfehlbaren. Es ist noch immer eine zutreffende Beschreibung dessen, was an der Wall Street los war, als die Märkte zusammenbrachen. Sorkin hatte einen guten Zugang zu den beteiligten Schlüsselpersonen. 

Die zweite Version der Geschichte wird oft von den wichtigsten Beteiligten selbst geschrieben. Nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg war Winston Churchill zuversichtlich, die Geschichte würde ihn freundlich behandeln, weil er beabsichtigte, „diese Geschichte selbst zu schreiben”. Als die Finanzkrise ausbrach, könnte derselbe Gedanke auch Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke und Tim Geithner angetrieben haben, die US-Finanzminister, Vorsitzender der Federal Reserve Bank und Präsident der New York Fed waren. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Beyond Unemployment

Posted by hkarner - 30. Mai 2019

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

In modern economies, people may have jobs, but they still harbor major concerns in a wide range of areas, including security, health and work-life balance, income and distribution, training, mobility, and opportunity. By focusing solely on the unemployment rate, policymakers are ignoring the many dimensions of employment that affect welfare.

MILAN – For much of the post-World War II period, economic policy has focused on unemployment. The massive job losses of the Great Depression – reversed only when World War II, and the massive debt accumulated to finance it, kick-started economic growth – had a lasting impact on at least two generations. But employment is just one facet of welfare, and in today’s world, it is not enough.

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Why the EU Election Was a Win for Macron

Posted by hkarner - 30. Mai 2019

Although the far-right National Rally edged out La République en Marche ! in the European Parliament election, broader trends in European politics now look favorable for French President Emmanuel Macron. His party will now lead a pivotal centrist bloc, and will be able to work closely with the newly reinforced Greens on crucial reforms.

PARIS – Though the final vote tally might seem to suggest otherwise, the European Parliament elections were a strategic success for French President Emmanuel Macron. There are four reasons why this is so.

First, Macron succeeded in framing the election as a contest between progressives and populists. Though he has been assailed at home in recent months – including by some on his own “side” – it is worth remembering that this message did not emerge out of thin air. Rather, it harks back to Macron’s 2017 presidential campaign, which itself tapped into a broader political sea change taking place across Europe. In that election, he overcame the traditional right-left divide. Two years later, this was replicated in the European Parliament elections. Historically, the Republicans on the right and the Socialists on the left have dominated French politics. Yet these parties’ combined share of the popular vote was under 15%, whereas Macron’s La République en Marche ! won 22.4%, and the far-right National Rally (formerly the National Front) picked up 23.3%. Behind these figures is an unprecedented collapse of the mainstream French right, which has failed to reconcile identity politics with traditional liberalism. Though some French conservatives have migrated to the National Rally, much of the center-right electorate has gravitated toward Macron’s party, owing to efforts by Prime Minister Édouard Philippe (formerly of the Republicans).Moreover, most of those who switched to La République en Marche ! are pensioners who did so despite being hit hard by Macron’s tax reforms (some of which have been reversed). This suggests that Macron’s progressive-versus-populist narrative helped to re-mobilize France’s – and perhaps Europe’s – pro-European electorate. While the National Rally performed well and Italy’s right-wing League party made gains, they failed to trigger the EU-wide political earthquake that many had come to expect.The second reason the election represents a victory for Macron is that his party will now be able to claim leadership over a pivotal centrist parliamentary group of 110 members. The relative losses suffered by the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), combined with the surge in support for the Greens, means that the European Parliament is entering a period of quadripartite governance. Provided these groups are able to compromise, the new arrangement will probably be an improvement on the old one, wherein the EPP and S&D divvied up all of the jobs. For the first time in the European Parliament’s history, the number of MEPs affiliated with the two main parties represents only 44% of the total.A more fluid parliamentary composition will allow for more ad hoc majorities to emerge in support of various policy proposals, given that there is so much common ground between La République en Marche !, the S&D, and the Greens. And, as an added bonus, the end of the EPP/S&D duopoly also marks the end of German hegemony in the Parliament.

Third, the Spitzenkandidaten process – whereby the largest party grouping selects the president of the European Commission – is likely to collapse, and this may also work to Macron’s advantage. The system is a first-past-the-post mechanism in a proportionally elected Parliament, and has more to do with partisanship than with democracy, because it gives automatic power to the largest group.

But while the EPP won the most parliamentary seats, its Spitzenkandidat, Manfred Weber, is very controversial. Just before the election, he was weakened by the political demise of Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, whose government was by the release of a video in which his vice chancellor, Heinz-Christian Strache of the Freedom Party, appears to offer a quid pro quo for electoral help from Russia. But Merkel still defends Weber, and, apart from Macron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, most EU leaders are reluctant to confront the European Parliament on the Spitzenkandidaten issue. That may shorten the odds for Margrethe Vestager – who is not from the EPP, but who is, in a sense, a liberal Spitzenkandidat – while while lengthening them for Michel Barnier, who is from the EPP but is not a Spitzenkandidat. If the Council succeeds in ruling out Weber and his populist supporters, Macron will claim it as a success.Finally, the election provides a check on German hegemony within the EU more broadly. Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has been weakened, and the country’s Greens have grown stronger. For his part, Macron will find the Greens much easier to work with on eurozone reform, especially if they end up joining a new German coalition government.Taken together, these post-election considerations paint a rather positive picture for Macron. The question now is whether he can use his strength at the EU level to shore up his domestic position. This will not happen automatically. With the fall of the French right, there may be a temptation to position La République en Marche ! as a new home for right-wing French voters. But while this might capture Paris’s bourgeois 16th arrondissement, doing so would be a mistake. Instead, Macron should focus on securing more of the atomized left, particularly those who have moved to the National Rally.As matters stand, La République en Marche !’s base remains limited to the “winners” of globalization. Rural, alienated, and economically vulnerable voters remain in the National Rally’s camp. To win them over, Macron must reduce the polarization between the two parties.

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The ECB’s Changing of the Guard

Posted by hkarner - 28. Mai 2019

Lucrezia Reichlin, a former director of research at the European Central Bank, is Professor of Economics at the London Business School.

After steering the eurozone through a decade of crises, the top leaders of the European Central Bank are now on their way out. Their successors will face both similar and new challenges, and whether they confront them as effectively will depend on European national governments picking the right women and men for the job.

LONDON – This month, the European Central Bank hosted a colloquium in honor of Peter Praet, its departing chief economist. Having worked closely with ECB President Mario Draghi through the years after the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent euro crisis, Praet, more than anyone else, has been the one to steer the bank’s governing council toward a common decision in difficult situations. His departure comes after that of Vice President Vítor Constâncio last summer, and he will be followed out by Draghi in October and Benoit Coeuré of the ECB executive board in December.

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Deutschlands Energiepolitik in der Sackgasse

Posted by hkarner - 27. Mai 2019

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics at the University of Munich, was President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.

MÜNCHEN – Emmanuel Macron hält Deutschlands Wirtschaft für ein Auslaufmodell. Damit könnte er Recht haben, wenn es um die Energieversorgung geht.

Während Frankreich über siebzig Prozent seines Stroms aus Kernenergie herstellt und seinen Verkehr in Zukunft mit Atomautos betreiben will, setzt Deutschland auf Windenergie und andere grüne Energieformen. Das Land will bis 2022 nicht nur aus der Kernenergie, sondern bis 2038 auch noch aus der Kohle aussteigen. Das aber wird Deutschland kaum schaffen, denn die Möglichkeiten, noch viel mehr Windflügel aufzustellen, sind begrenzt. Schon heute ist das ganze Land mit riesigen, bis zu 250 Meter hohen Windkraftanlagen übersät, die selbst seine schönsten Kulturlandschaften in Industriegebiete verwandeln. Jubelnd haben die Bauern und Waldbesitzer der Umwidmung ihres Landes zugestimmt, war damit doch stets ein riesiger Planungsgewinn verbunden, wie er sonst nur den Landbesitzern an den Rändern der Großstädte vergönnt war. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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