Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Project Syndicate’

What Trump Gets Wrong About EU Defense

Posted by hkarner - 20. Juli 2018

Javier Solana was EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain. He is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

Donald Trump is not the first US president to demand that European countries spend more on their own defense, but he is the first to ignore the value of America’s alliances. In fact, with NATO’s European pillar recently strengthened, the US will have an even more reliable defense partner.

MADRID – The annual NATO summit this month was the latest installment in a long series of disagreements between US President Donald Trump and America’s European allies. At last year’s summit, Trump refused to affirm the principle of collective defense under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty – the keystone of the transatlantic alliance. And, after derailing a G7 summit last month, Trump added further tensions this week by refusing to utter even the mildest criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin at their Helsinki meeting.

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Wie man Arbeitnehmer ohne Handelszölle schützen kann

Posted by hkarner - 20. Juli 2018

Robert J. Shiller, a 2013 Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at Yale University and the co-creator of the Case-Shiller Index of US house prices. He is the author of Irrational Exuberance, the third edition of which was published in January 2015, and, most recently, Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, co-authored with George Akerlof.

NEW HAVEN – Laut einer am 11. Juli veröffentlichten Meinungsumfrage der Washington Post und der Schar School unter US-Amerikanern stimmten nur 39% der Umfrageteilnehmer der Verhängung von Zöllen gegenüber anderen Ländern durch US-Präsident Donald Trump zu; 56% waren dagegen. Doch während es eine gute Nachricht ist, dass die Mehrheit der Amerikaner sich in dieser entscheidenden Frage gegen ihren Präsidenten stellt, zeigt sich Trump unbeirrt; er glaubt anscheinend, dass die Bevölkerung die Zölle besser finden wird, wenn sie erst einmal eingeführt sind.

Es ist ein Rätsel, warum selbst 39% diese Politik unterstützten. Seit der Großen Depression und dem Zweiten Weltkrieg, und dem Allgemeinen Zoll- und Handelsabkommen von 1947, haben die USA – und zwar Regierung wie Bevölkerung – konsequent den freien Handel unterstützt.

In seinem Buch Der Wohlstand der Nationen aus dem Jahr 1776 argumentierte Adam Smith in beredsamer und überzeugender Weise für den Freihandel und gegen handelsverzerrende Zölle: Beim Freihandel prosperiere die Wirtschaft, weil Waren und Dienstleistungen aus den Ländern bezogen werden, die bei ihrer Erzeugung am produktivsten sind. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump May Kill the Global Recovery

Posted by hkarner - 20. Juli 2018

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

In a sharp departure from this time last year, the global economy is now being buffeted by growing concerns over US President Donald Trump’s trade war, fragile emerging markets, a slowdown in Europe, and other risks. It is safe to say that the period of low volatility and synchronized global growth is behind us.

NEW YORK – How does the current global economic outlook compare to that of a year ago? In 2017, the world economy was undergoing a synchronized expansion, with growth accelerating in both advanced economies and emerging markets. Moreover, despite stronger growth, inflation was tame – if not falling – even in economies like the United States, where goods and labor markets were tightening.

Stronger growth with inflation still below target allowed unconventional monetary policies either to remain in full force, as in the eurozone and Japan, or to be rolled back very gradually, as in the US. The combination of strong growth, low inflation, and easy money implied that market volatility was low. And with the yields on government bonds also very low, investors’ animal spirits were running high, boosting the price of many risky assets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The End of NATO?

Posted by hkarner - 19. Juli 2018

Carl Bildt was Sweden’s foreign minister from 2006 to October 2014 and Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference. He is Chair of the Global Commission on Internet Governance and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

US President Donald Trump escalated his war on US alliances and multilateral institutions at NATO’s summit in Brussels and then at his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. There is now little doubt that Trump’s strange affinity for Putin represents a serious threat to European security.

STOCKHOLM – What is left of NATO and the transatlantic order after US President Donald Trump’s tumultuous week in Brussels, the United Kingdom, and Helsinki, where he defended Russian President Vladimir Putin against accusations of cyber warfare by America’s own intelligence agencies?

Watching events unfold through rose-tinted glasses, one might think that the West’s most important strategic alliance is more or less okay, or even growing stronger. In fact, NATO is in peril, and its fate now lies in Trump’s contemptuous hands.

Prior to and during the NATO summit, there was much hand-wringing over member states’ military spending as a share of GDP. Each member is expected to increase its spending to 2% of GDP by 2024, but Trump seems to think that this already should have been done. And at the summit last week, he suddenly called for a new target of 4% of GDP – which is more than even the United States spends. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Nationalism, Immigration, and Economic Success

Posted by hkarner - 19. Juli 2018

Jason Furman

Jason Furman, Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, was Chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2013-2017.

There can be no question that immigration provides a net economic benefit to advanced economies, particularly those experiencing a retirement boom. But as long as anti-immigrant sentiment dictates the political narrative, growth will suffer, and resurgent populist forces will grow stronger.

CAMBRIDGE – One of the central challenges facing the world’s advanced economies is slowing growth. Over the last decade, growth rates in the advanced economies have averaged 1.2%, down from an average of 3.1% during the previous 25 years.

History shows that slower economic growth can make societies less generous, less tolerant, and less inclusive. So, it stands to reason that the past decade of sluggish growth has contributed to the surge of a damaging form of populist nationalism that is taking hold in a growing number of countries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Time to Untie the ECB’s Hands

Posted by hkarner - 16. Juli 2018

Stefan Gerlach

Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has also served as Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and as Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.

The European Central Bank is now signaling its intention to end quantitative easing this year, indicating that it expects eurozone inflation to reach its target of „below, but close to, 2%.“ But as the ECB prepares for the next crisis, it would be well advised to revisit its longstanding price-stability objective.

ZURICH – The European Central Bank’s recent announcement that it will try to end asset purchases by this December means that it has confidence in its ability to achieve price stability. But those who decided that price stability should be the ECB’s single, overriding policy goal may have shot themselves in the foot, not least by denying policymakers much-needed flexibility.

The ECB defines price stability as inflation “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” That is a lower inflation rate than even the Bundesbank achieved during its celebrated pre-euro history, and it is a tighter target than virtually all other central banks pursue. For some, too much of a good thing is apparently wonderful. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Is Trump an “Effective Leader”?

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juli 2018

Scott Cowen

Scott Cowen is President Emeritus of Tulane University, where he teaches an undergraduate course on leadership, and the author of Winnebagos on Wednesdays: How Visionary Leadership Can Transform Higher Education.

US President Donald Trump’s supporters are happy to ignore his moral shortcomings, so long as he delivers on the „America First“ agenda that he promised. But when leaders put tangible results before ethical considerations, their successes rarely stand the test of time.

NEW ORLEANS – No matter how much chaos and disruption US President Donald Trump causes – to trade, business, and even America’s core alliances – his supporters regularly insist that Trump is a leader who gets things done. While Arkansas Senator and almost-CIA director Tom Cotton regards Trump as an “active, engaged, and effective leader,” former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Newt Gingrich has gone so far as to describe Trump as “stunningly effective.”

Given these accolades, I was curious about what the undergraduates in my course on leadership theory and practice think of Trump’s effectiveness, so I organized a student debate. One side was tasked with defending the motion that Trump is an “effective leader.” They portrayed him as a decisive go-getter, and marveled at his “chutzpah” in moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Among Trump’s accomplishments, they pointed to the tax-reform legislation that he signed in December 2017, the airstrikes against Syrian chemical-weapons facilities in April 2018, the recent engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, and the evolution of trade policy toward China. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A “Reagan Moment” for International Trade?

Posted by hkarner - 10. Juli 2018

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

In the 1980s, US President Ronald Reagan initiated a military spending race with the Soviet Union that ended up altering the global balance of power in ways that affected many countries worldwide. Could Donald Trump’s tariff race with China lead to a similar outcome?

NEW YORK – The latest round of tit-for-tat tariffs by the United States and China has intensified the ongoing global debate about whether the world is facing a mere trade skirmish or heading rapidly toward a full-blown trade war. But what is really at stake may be even more fundamental. Either accidentally or by design, US President Donald Trump’s administration may have paved the way for a “Reagan moment” for the international trade regime.

In the 1980s, US President Ronald Reagan initiated a military spending race with the Soviet Union that ended up altering the global balance of power in ways that affected many countries worldwide. Today, Trump has launched a tariff race with China, an economic superpower, perhaps with similarly far-reaching potential consequences. Like under Reagan, the US is better placed to win the current competition with China – but the risks are sizable. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Migration Dilemma

Posted by hkarner - 9. Juli 2018

Peter Singer is Professor of Bioethics at Princeton University, Laureate Professor in the School of Historical and Philosophical Studies at the University of Melbourne, and founder of the non-profit organization The Life You Can Save. His books include Animal Liberation, Practical Ethics, The Ethics of What We Eat (with Jim Mason), Rethinking Life and Death, The Point of View of the Universe, co-authored with Katarzyna de Lazari-Radek, The Most Good You Can Do, Famine, Affluence, and Morality, One World Now, Ethics in the Real World, and Utilitarianism: A Very Short Introduction, also with Katarzyna de Lazari-Radek. In 2013, he was named the world’s third „most influential contemporary thinker“ by the Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute.

Political leaders who want to act humanely towards asylum-seekers and other migrants now face a moral dilemma. Either they pursue border control that is strict enough to undercut public support for far-right parties, or they risk allowing those parties to gain more power – and challenge the West’s most fundamental values.

PRINCETON – The most heart-rending media story of the past month featured children crying after being separated from their parents at the border between the United States and Mexico. US President Donald Trump, after initially defending the separations, yielded to public pressure and signed an executive order ending it. In Europe, too, immigrants made headlines as the ship Aquarius, carrying 629 rescued would-be immigrants, was turned away by Italy’s new populist government, as well as by Malta. That formed the background to a European Union meeting in Brussels, which hammered out a compromise on how to protect Europe’s borders and screen arriving migrants.

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Europas viel zu komplexe Union

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juli 2018

Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of the new book The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.

PRINCETON – Vor einigen Jahren drohte die europäische Schuldenkrise, das Schiff der Währungsunion zu versenken. Heute steht die Europäische Union vor noch größeren Problemen: Die Nord-Süd- und Ost-West-Spannungen in Europa haben sich vergrößert. Und nun ist nicht einmal mehr die Zukunft der Regierung der deutschen Kanzlerin Angela Merkel sicher. Ist es denkbar, dass die EU an diesen Spannungen zerbricht?

Logisch betrachtet gibt es keinen Grund, warum die EU jetzt am Rand des Untergangs stehen sollte. Immerhin wurde endlich eine nachhaltige Einigung über die griechischen Schulden erreicht, und das Flüchtlingsbüro der Vereinten Nationen hat in diesem Jahr nur 42.213 Flüchtlinge registriert – viel weniger als die Millionen, die 2015 an der Grenze der EU eintrafen.

Und trotzdem hat in diesem Jahr die Angst vor Migration einen Höchststand erreicht. Dies scheint nicht nur eine verzögerte Reaktion auf die große Einwanderungswelle vor drei Jahren zu sein, sondern auch die Unsicherheit nach der Finanzkrise von 2008 widerzuspiegeln. Die Europäer sorgen sich stärker um die Zukunft als noch vor zehn Jahren – nicht zuletzt deshalb, weil sie nicht davon überzeugt sind, dass ihre Politiker auf die aktuellen Probleme eine effektive Antwort haben. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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