Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Project Syndicate’

The World Economy Goes Hollywood

Posted by hkarner - 21. Januar 2019

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

In a world where “nobody knows anything,” investors may be no better than film-studio moguls at predicting the future. If so, then markets, instead of being predictive, become increasingly reactive, simply extrapolating recent events.

LONDON – If there is one useful conclusion that economists and investors can draw from the crazy year that has just ended – indeed, from the whole crazy decade since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 – it is this: As they say in Hollywood, “Nobody knows anything.” In the film industry, the richest and most experienced studios and producers spend vast amounts of time and money on audience research, but still have no idea if their latest creations will turn out to be hits or flops. So why be surprised if the same is true of financial markets – or, for that matter, of commodity prices, policymaking, and corporate performance?

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Global Taxation for the Digital Age

Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2019

Gillian Tans

Gillian Tans is CEO of Booking.com.

The European Commission’s proposal to create an EU digital services tax is aimed mainly at multinational tech giants. But should the tax take effect, it will be Europe’s own startups and digital ecosystems that pay the highest price.

AMSTERDAM – The question of how to tax increasingly globalized and digitized businesses is vital to the future health of cross-border trade and investment. Sadly, the current debate is mired in confusion and complexity, and is not helped by populist political responses that demonize digital businesses.

A prime example is the European Commission’s proposal, first published in March 2018, to create an EU digital services tax (DST). The measure is aimed mainly at multinational tech giants whose corporate structures allow them to siphon digitally-derived profits to low-tax jurisdictions. But should the DST take effect, it will be Europe’s own startups and digital ecosystems that pay the biggest price.

As a company that operates in a globalized market, we have numerous concerns about the limited vision for the future of business embodied in the European Commission’s proposals. This is why we must oppose the DST idea in its entirety.

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Run Down the Brexit Clock

Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2019

I am not so sure about Varoufakis‘ sense of reality. He has not proven it while himself being in politics! (hfk)

Yanis Varoufakis, a former finance minister of Greece, is Professor of Economics at the University of Athens.

The terrifying prospect of a no-deal Brexit on March 29 remains in play after the British Parliament emphatically rejected Prime Minister Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement with the EU. Although it is tempting to reset the clock and give negotiations more time, that instinct must be resisted.

ATHENS – The overwhelming defeat that Britain’s Parliament inflicted upon Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plan was fresh confirmation that there is no substitute for democracy. Members of Parliament deserve congratulations for keeping their cool in the face of a made-up deadline. That deadline is the reason why Brexit is proving so hard and potentially so damaging. To resolve Brexit, that artificial deadline must be removed altogether, not merely re-set. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The World Needs Europe

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2019

Date: 15-01-2019
Source: Project Syndicate by Jean-Claude Juncker

Jean-Claude Juncker is President of the European Commission.

Having emerged from centuries of bloodshed to become the poster child for integration and collaboration, Europe has a distinct service to offer the rest of the world. With the international order coming apart and populist nationalism on the rise, now is the time for the European Union to show leadership, both at home and abroad.

BRUSSELS – As we usher in a new year, the future direction of the European Union has never been more important, both for Europe and for the rest of the world. In these increasingly tumultuous times, the EU can provide the stability and hope that the world so desperately needs.

For decades, Europe has been the poster child for integration and cooperation in a fractured world. Since the end of World War II, the continent has been living proof that multilateralism works. Europe’s troubled past has given way to a peace spanning seven decades, and to a Union of 500 million citizens living in freedom and prosperity. By any metric, Europe is now the most tolerant, free, and equal place to live anywhere in the world.

But the EU is not a given. Peace is not inevitable, and war is not implausible. The year 2018 marked the centenary of the end of World War I, the lessons of which must still be heeded. The Europeans of 1913 thought that war was impossible, that they were too interlinked to turn on one another. We Europeans have a rich tradition of ignoring premonitions of ruin at our own peril. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Brain Drain

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2019

Anne O. Krueger, a former World Bank chief economist and former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is Senior Research Professor of International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Development, Stanford University.

Though higher-education services are a major US export and a key source of domestic innovation and economic growth, this key sector is often lost in debates about trade and the current account balance. But with foreign enrollment in US universities now declining in the age of Donald Trump, Americans should not be surprised if their own tuition bills go up.

WASHINGTON, DC – America’s high-quality universities are among the key sources of its greatness. Every year, top students from all over the world vie for access to graduate and undergraduate programs in the US, and American universities occupy most of the top spots in global rankings. Moreover, the basic research conducted at US universities has been a primary driver of innovation and economic growth, as well as the source of a disproportionate share of Nobel prizes.

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Rhymes from Central Europe

Posted by hkarner - 16. Januar 2019

Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999

The rise – or better, the return – of “illiberal democracy” in parts of Europe today surprises us, because it refutes the established narrative of progress. But what is odd is not the reappearance of ancient faiths and prejudices, but rather the liberal belief that they could so easily be overcome.

LONDON – On December 3, 2018, the Central European University announced that from September 2019 it would relocate most of its teaching from Budapest to Vienna. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government had, in effect, closed down the CEU, founded by Orbán’s favourite bogeyman, George Soros. “Arbitrary eviction of a reputable university is a flagrant violation of academic freedom,” declared the university’s rector, Michael Ignatieff. “It is a dark day for Europe and a dark day for Hungary.”

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Let’s Get Real About Purpose

Posted by hkarner - 15. Januar 2019

Mariana Mazzucato is Professor of the Economics of Innovation and Public Value and Director of the UCL Institute for Innovation & Public Purpose(IIPP). She is the author of The Value of Everything: Making and Taking in the Global Economy, which was shortlisted for the Financial Times-McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award.

For too long, the value of economic activity has been measured purely by its price. By recognizing that value is created collectively by business, government, and civil society, it is possible to create a more purposeful type of capitalism.

LONDON – One year ago, BlackRock chairman and CEO Larry Fink wrote a letter to 500 CEOs asking them to rethink their sense of purpose. “To prosper over time,” he wrote, “every company must not only deliver financial performance, but also show how it makes a positive contribution to society.”

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Risks to the Global Economy in 2019

Posted by hkarner - 14. Januar 2019

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies.

CAMBRIDGE – As Mark Twain never said, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you think you know for sure that just ain’t so.” Over the course of this year and next, the biggest economic risks will emerge in those areas where investors think recent patterns are unlikely to change. They will include a growth recession in China, a rise in global long-term real interest rates, and a crescendo of populist economic policies that undermine the credibility of central bank independence, resulting in higher interest rates on “safe” advanced-country government bonds.

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Shelter from the Storm in 2019

Posted by hkarner - 12. Januar 2019

Barry Eichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era.

In the coming year, global economic, financial, and political stability will depend on outcomes in four areas. And what happens on one front is likely to affect the prospects for positive outcomes on all the others.

BRUSSELS – What would have to happen for this to be a tranquil year economically, financially, and politically? Answer: a short list of threats to stability would have to be averted.

First, the trade war between the United States and China would have to be placed on hold. In November and December, financial markets reacted positively to each hint of a negotiated settlement and negatively to each mention of renewed hostilities – and for good reason: tariffs that disrupt trade flows and supply chains do global growth no good. And, as we know, what happens in financial markets doesn’t stay in financial markets: outcomes there powerfully affect consumer confidence and business sentiment.

Second, the US economy will have to grow by at least 2%, the consensus forecast incorporated into investor expectations. If growth comes in significantly lower – whether because the sugar high from the December 2017 tax cuts wears off, the Federal Reserve chokes off the expansion, or for some other reason – financial markets will move sharply downward, with negative implications for confidence and stability.

Third, China will have to avoid a significant intensification of its financial problems. Successfully managing a corporate-debt load of 160% of GDP requires not just selectively restructuring bad loans, but also increasing the denominator of the debt-to-GDP ratio. With infrastructure investment weak and manufacturing production declining, China is increasingly unlikely to achieve the authorities’ 2019 target of at least 6% growth. In that case, slow growth and mounting debt problems will feed on one another, dragging down economic performance in China and much of the emerging-market world.

Fourth, voters in the European Parliament election in May will have to prevent the victory of a right-wing nationalist majority hostile to European integration. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rewriting the Future of Work

Posted by hkarner - 10. Januar 2019

Bruno Dobrusin

Bruno Dobrusin is coordinator of the One Million Climate Jobs campaign at the Green Economy Network.

Three common assumptions skew economists‘ forecasts of automation’s impact on employment. Addressing each is essential to protect workers’ rights and change the fatalistic storyline of the prevailing narrative.

TORONTO – Much has been written about the “future of work,” and much of it makes for gloomy reading. Study after study predicts that automation will upend entire industries and leave millions unemployed. A 2013 paper by two Oxford professors even suggested that machines could replace 47% of jobs in the United States within “a decade or two.”

Conclusions like these sustain the narrative that the future will inevitably be jobless. And yet this view is favored primarily by the corporate sector and supported by negative trends in the so-called gig economy; workers and trade unions have played little role in the conversation. If that were to change, the future of work could look very different. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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