Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Unemployment’

Images aren’t everything: AI, radiology and the future of work

Posted by hkarner - 9. Juni 2018

Date: 07-06-2018
Source: The Economist

Clever machines will make workers more productive more often than they will replace them

RADIOLOGISTS, say the pessimists, will be first against the wall when the machines take over. Analysing medical images is a natural fit for “deep learning”, an artificial-intelligence (AI) technique which first attracted attention for its ability to teach computers to recognise objects in pictures. A variety of companies hope that bringing AI into the clinic will make diagnosis faster and cheaper. The machines may even be able to see nuances that humans cannot, assessing how risky a patient’s cancer is simply by looking at a scan.

Some AI researchers think that human beings can be dispensed with entirely. “It’s quite obvious that we should stop training radiologists,” said Geoffrey Hinton, an AI luminary, in 2016. In November Andrew Ng, another superstar researcher, when discussing AI’s ability to diagnose pneumonia from chest X-rays, wondered whether “radiologists should be worried about their jobs”. Given how widely applicable machine learning seems to be, such pronouncements are bound to alarm white-collar workers, from engineers to lawyers. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Italian Trigger

Posted by hkarner - 4. Juni 2018

June 1, 2018

This letter is chapter 4 in my Train Crash series. If you’re just joining us, here are links to help you catch up.

Briefly, my thesis is that over the next decade, we will endure increasingly damaging debt crises that culminate in a coordinated global default—“The Great Reset,” as I call it. There are limits in how much leverage the world can handle, and I think we are already beyond them. And that is before we have a global recession. The only question now is how we will manage the collapse.

I previously quoted former BIS Chief Economist William White on how this will all unfold. Here’s his key point again. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Macron nimmt sich bei Arbeitsmarktreform Hartz IV zum Vorbild

Posted by hkarner - 25. April 2018

25. April 2018, 12:42derstandard.at

Die Reformen sind nicht ganz so weitreichend wie in Deutschland und mit französischer Handschrift

Paris – Die Hartz-IV-Reformen in Deutschland stehen Pate: Rund ein Jahr nach der Wahl von Frankreichs Präsident Emmanuel Macron legt die Regierung in Paris am Freitag einen Gesetzentwurf zum Umbau der Arbeitslosenversicherung vor. Es folgen Kernpunkte der Reform. Sie lehnt sich zwar an das deutsche Vorbild an, trägt aber auch eine eigene französische Handschrift.

Steuerzahler sollen Beiträge leisten

Im Pariser Reformentwurf werden die Arbeitnehmerbeiträge zur Arbeitslosenversicherung von aktuell 2,4 Prozent des Bruttogehalts gestrichen. Dafür muss in Zukunft der Steuerzahler in die Bresche springen. Er wird über einen jüngst erhöhten allgemeinen Sozialbeitrag – kurz CSG – zur Kasse gebeten: „Ein Schritt, der auch bei Pensionisten für Unmut sorgt“, erläutert Claire Demesmay von der Deutschen Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik. In Deutschland leisten Arbeitgeber und -nehmer ihre Beiträge paritätisch. „Eine steuerfinanzierte Streichung der Arbeitnehmerbeiträge hat es hierzulande nie gegeben“, so das Centrum für Europäische Politik (CEP) in Freiburg. Eine spezifisch französische Idee sei auch die Arbeitslosenversicherung bei einer Eigenkündigung, verbunden mit einer beruflichen Umorientierung.

Förderungen und Forderungen

„Die Zuwendungen sollen stärker als zuvor daran geknüpft werden, dass der Empfänger Bemühungen um einen neuen Arbeitsplatz nachweist“, so führende deutsche Wirtschaftsforscher. Sie haben Macrons Reformen in ihrem Frühjahrsgutachten unter die Lupe genommen. Die Maßnahmen seien aber weniger weitreichend als in Deutschland.

Harte Sanktionen

Das CEP verweist darauf, dass Arbeitslosengeldempfänger in Frankreich bisher nur selten Sanktionen fürchten müssen: Wer unentschuldigt nicht zu einem Termin im Arbeitsamt erschien, musste maximal mit einer Sperre von zwei Monaten rechnen. Der Reformentwurf sieht hier eine Verschärfung vor. Zudem sollen in den Arbeitsämtern mehr Sachbearbeiter eingestellt werden. Laut Regierung soll ihre Zahl bis 2020 verfünffacht werden.

Vieles wird zumutbar

Die Regierung will zudem die starren Regeln für die Zumutbarkeit eines Jobangebots neu ordnen. „Bisher orientierten sie sich an der Qualifikation und den beruflichen Kompetenzen des Arbeitslosen. Außerdem musste der Arbeitslose mindestens 95 Prozent seines vorherigen Gehalts verdienen beziehungsweise nach sechsmonatiger Arbeitslosigkeit mindestens 85 Prozent“, erläutert das CEP. Was als angemessenes Jobangebot gilt, soll das Arbeitsamt künftig jeweils im konkreten Fall festlegen. (APA, 25.4.2018) – derstandard.at/2000078609165-2000026008978/Macron-nimmt-sich-bei-Arbeitsmarktreform-Hartz-IV-zum-Vorbild

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Automation and American Leadership

Posted by hkarner - 19. April 2018

Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.

In an era of rapid technological change, it is widely assumed that disruptions to labor markets are inevitable – and positive – indicators of a country’s international competitiveness. But should policymakers really use the economy to advance national power at the expense of the many people and regions left behind?

LONDON – Not so long ago, there were two competing explanations of unemployment. The first was the Keynesian theory of deficient demand, which holds that workers become unemployed “involuntarily” when their community lacks the money to buy the goods and services they produce. The second was the view often associated with the Chicago School, according to which unemployment is a voluntary choice of leisure over work at whatever the offered wage. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bei Banken droht Kahlschlag – Arbeitsstiftung steht schon parat

Posted by hkarner - 10. April 2018

Maximal 4.500: wohl ein Witz!? (hfk)

Wegen der Digitalisierung der Finanzwirtschaft wird ein massiver Kahlschlag bei Banken befürchtet. Eine neue Arbeitsstiftung gibt es bereits, sie ist auf den Wegfall von bis zu 4500 Jobs ausgelegt.

Die Verhandlungen über die Arbeitsstiftung für die Mitarbeiter in den heimischen Banken sind abgeschlossen. Das teilten die Sozialpartner am Montag gemeinsam mit. Wenn in den nächsten viereinhalb Jahren ein Geldhaus Stellen streicht, kommen die betroffenen Beschäftigen in diese Stiftung. Wegen der Digitalisierung der Finanzwirtschaft wird ein massiver Kahlschlag befürchtet.

In Österreichs Banken arbeiten derzeit über 70.000 Mitarbeiter. Viele Jobs sind bedroht, weil die meisten Kunden ihre Bankgeschäfte mittlerweile am Computer oder Smartphone erledigen. Bei etlichen Banken wird das Filialnetz bereits ausgedünnt. Wie die Sozialpartner erinnerten, hat Notenbank-Chef Ewald Nowotny schon 2015 prognostiziert, dass mittelfristig jeder dritte Bankangestellte sein Arbeitsplatz verlieren könnte. 

Die Branchenstiftung ist für maximal 4.500 Mitarbeiter ausgelegt, sagte Franz Rudorfer, Geschäftsführer der Bundessparte Bank und Versicherung in der Wirtschaftskammer Österreich (WKÖ), auf APA-Anfrage. Die Banken beteiligen sich mit bis zu 36 Millionen Euro, so Rudorfer. Das AMS steuert 14 Millionen Euro, der Wiener Förderungsfonds WAFF weitere vier Millionen bei. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Running the economy hot

Posted by hkarner - 26. Februar 2018

Date: 23-02-2018
Source: The Economist

America will soon conduct an extraordinary economic experiment

WHEN should policymakers stop stimulating an economy? America’s unemployment rate is 4.1%. At such a low level, the Federal Reserve, the central bank, would normally expect inflation to rise. In 2017 the economy grew by 2.5%, spurred by falls in joblessness that cannot go on forever. And inflation—though still below the Fed’s target—has overshot forecasts in recent months. All that might suggest that stimulus has become unnecessary. Yet America is cutting taxes and raising spending. As a result, in 2018 and 2019 it is poised to run an experiment. By stimulating economic activity when times are already good, it will find out what happens when the economy runs hot.

The target at which central bankers usually aim when setting monetary policy is the so-called “natural” rate of unemployment. It is elusive. After the financial crisis, when unemployment rose to 10% but inflation failed to subside, some economists speculated that the natural rate was as high as 6.5%. In hindsight those forecasts were far too pessimistic. Today, after years of non-inflationary job growth, there is a widespread consensus that the natural rate is around 4-5%. But this could be a reflection of groupthink. The natural rate is notoriously hard to estimate. Running the economy hot should reveal with certainty where the limits of the labour market really are. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Seeking a soft landing: Will America’s economy overheat in 2018?

Posted by hkarner - 20. Dezember 2017

Date: 19-12-2017
Source: The Economist

The labour market is the healthiest it has been for at least a decade. But inflation remains low

USUALLY politicians pretend that good economic news on their watch is no surprise. But America’s recent growth figures have been so positive that even the administration of President Donald Trump has allowed itself to marvel. “It’s actually happening faster than we expected,” mused Mick Mulvaney, the White House budget chief, in September, after growth rose to 3.1% in the second quarter. (Mr Trump in fact came to office promising 4% growth, but the goal now seems to be 3%.) Mr Mulvaney warned that hurricanes would soon bring growth back down. Instead, in the third quarter, it rose to 3.3%—a figure celebrated with more conviction. The administration’s initial caution was wise: quarterly growth figures are volatile, and few economists expect growth above 3% to carry on for long. Yet there is no denying that the economy is in rude health.

In part, that reflects the strength of the global economy. But it is also the culmination of a years-long trend. As politics has consumed America’s attention for the past two years, common complaints from earlier in the decade have, one by one, begun to look dated. The median household income is no longer stagnant, having grown by 5.2% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016, after adjusting for inflation. During those two years, poorer households gained more, on average, than richer ones. Business investment is no longer tepid: it drove growth in the third quarter of the year (see chart 1). Jobs are plentiful—unemployment is just 4.1%. From Wall Street to Main Street, businesses ooze confidence. What is more, tax cuts are poised to stimulate the economy. Analysts no longer ask when growth will at last pick up. Instead, they wonder if the economy might overheat. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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To Recruit Workers, Manufacturers Go to Parents’ Nights

Posted by hkarner - 18. Dezember 2017

Date: 17-12-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Facing low unemployment, companies try to convince parents to recruit their children; ‘You know, not everyone is an accountant’

Parents of high-school students in Fort Collins, Colo., recently attended a „Parents’ Night“ event where area manufacturers promoted trade careers to their children.

Nearly 200 parents of high-school students in Fort Collins, Colo., recently gathered for “Parents’ Night.” Their children, they were told, could have great, well-paying careers while being “the next generation of makers.”

The venue? Woodward Inc., an engine and equipment components plant looking for ways to line up the next generation of employees amid a dearth of manufacturing workers nationwide. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Automatic Job Storm Coming

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2017

The monthly jobs report isn’t like that. Yes, any single month doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the Labor Department’s methodology has some flaws, both major and minor. But imperfect as it is, the jobs report is our best look at the economy’s pulse. Jobs matter in a visceral way to almost all of us, as you know well if you’ve ever lost one. Almost any survey that asked questions around employment would reveal the angst that many Americans feel about the possibility of losing their jobs.

Right now, automation tops the list of things that might threaten our jobs. Artificial intelligence and robotics technology are rapidly learning to do what human workers do, but better, faster, and cheaper.

I’ve use the following chart before, but it’s a compelling illustration of how technology is reducing employment. It shows the rising rig count in the oil patch since mid-2016 – and yet the number of workers on those rigs is actually still falling. This is the impact of a new robot called an iron roughneck: Tasks that used to require 20 people now need only five. And the iron roughneck is not even that widely deployed in the oil and gas industry – the trend will hit hard in the coming decade. Roughneck jobs are relatively high-paying; it takes a great deal of training and skill to be able to do them. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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