RBS zahlt Rekordstrafe in den USA

Das britische Institut soll vor der Finanzkrise faule Hypothekenpapiere verkauft haben.

15.08.2018 um 18:27, diepresse.com

Wien.Die Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) zahlt in den USA wegen Fehlverhaltens im Vorfeld der Finanzkrise eine Rekordstrafe. Das US-Justizministerium und die einst größte Bank der Welt einigten sich endgültig auf einen Vergleich über 4,9 Mrd. Dollar (4,3 Mrd. Euro), wie das Ministerium mitteilte.

Die RBS kann den langwierigen Streit um US-Hypothekengeschäfte nun zu den Akten legen. An der Börse in London notierte die RBS-Aktie am Mittwoch unverändert.

Es sei der größte Vergleich seiner Art, erklärte das US-Justizministerium weiter. Die Behörden sehen es als erwiesen an, dass die RBS wie viele Konkurrenten auf dem amerikanischen Immobilienmarkt trickste – und damit maßgeblich zur weltweiten Finanzkrise beitrug. Das Institut bündelte Hypotheken in komplexe Wertpapiere und verkaufte sie dann als sicheres Investment an Anleger. Dabei habe die RBS gewusst, dass die zugrunde liegenden Hypotheken stark ausfallgefährdet gewesen seien. Als der Markt abstürzte, wurden die Papiere plötzlich so gut wie wertlos

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When China Rules the Web

Date: 14-08-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Adam Segal

Technology in Service of the State

For almost five decades, the United States has guided the growth of the Internet. From its origins as a small Pentagon program to its status as a global platform that connects more than half of the world’s population and tens of billions of devices, the Internet has long been an American project. Yet today, the United States has ceded leadership in cyberspace to China. Chinese President Xi Jinping has outlined his plans to turn China into a “cyber-superpower.” Already, more people in China have access to the Internet than in any other country, but Xi has grander plans. Through domestic regulations, technological innovation, and foreign policy, China aims to build an “impregnable” cyberdefense system, give itself a greater voice in Internet governance, foster more world-class companies, and lead the globe in advanced technologies.

China’s continued rise as a cyber-superpower is not guaranteed. Top-down, state-led efforts at innovation in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, robotics, and other ambitious technologies may well fail. Chinese technology companies will face economic and political pressures as they globalize. Chinese citizens, although they appear to have little expectation of privacy from their government, may demand more from private firms. The United States may reenergize its own digital diplomacy, and the U.S. economy may rediscover the dynamism that allowed it create so much of the modern world’s technology.

“Never Trump” Republicans could have their revenge

Date: 11-08-2018
Source: The Economist: Lexington

 The president will not lose a primary, but he could be fatally damaged

THE phrase “forlorn hope” entered English from Dutch and German in the 17th century. It referred to a suicide mission or, more often, the ambitious and condemned men chosen to execute it. The most celebrated British forlorn hope was a band of aristocrats and ne’er-do-wells sent to scale the walls of the Spanish city of Badajoz in 1812. They carried sacks of hay to cushion their leap into its defensive ditch. Many were blown up by French mines the moment they landed.

Never Trumpers, as President Donald Trump’s Republican critics are known, are the forlorn hope of American politics. Led by conservative pundits such as Max Boot, David Brooks, Bill Kristol, David Frum and George Will, they are few in number, gallantly in favour of things like free trade and fiscal discipline that Republicans used to care about, and probably doomed. Mr Trump’s hold over Republicans seems unbreakable. Almost 90% approve of his performance. “There is no Republican Party, there’s a Trump party,” says John Boehner, a former Republican congressional leader.

Step 1: Smash the World Order. Step 2?

Date: 08-08-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By William A. Galston

‘Any jackass can kick down a barn, but it takes a carpenter to build one.’
President Donald Trump with German Chancellor Angela Merkel .

The late House Speaker Sam Rayburn, a connoisseur of the art of the possible, often said “Any jackass can kick down a barn, but it takes a carpenter to build one.”

In foreign affairs thus far, President Trump’s deconstructive prowess has been much in evidence. Mr. Trump has withdrawn the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Iran nuclear agreement while challenging the basis of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. He sidelined negotiations for a trade deal with the European Union, withdrew from the Paris climate accord, threatened to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and began a trade war with China. His decision to move the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem ended, perhaps permanently, America’s longstanding role as broker between Israel and the Palestinians. Two astonishing summits—with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin —upended decades of American diplomacy.

For 70 years, America’s role in the world was clear: We would use treaties and multilateral institutions to defend our friends, deter our foes and promote peace, prosperity and democracy around the world. We believed that the strength of our allies strengthened us as well. We made many mistakes and a handful of grave errors, but at least we knew what we stood for, and so did everyone else. No longer.

Facebook to Banks: Give Us Your Data, We’ll Give You Our Users

Date: 07-08-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Facebook has asked large U.S. banks to share detailed financial information about customers as it seeks to boost user engagement

Facebook is trying to deepen user engagement after it said last month its growth is slowing, stunning investors. One tactic it is exploring is to get banks to work closely with Facebook Messenger.

Facebook Inc. wants your financial data.

The social-media giant has asked large U.S. banks to share detailed financial information about their customers, including card transactions and checking-account balances, as part of an effort to offer new services to users.

Facebook increasingly wants to be a platform where people buy and sell goods and services, besides connecting with friends. The company over the past year asked JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., Citigroup Inc. and U.S. Bancorp to discuss potential offerings it could host for bank customers on Facebook Messenger, said people familiar with the matter.

Facebook has talked about a feature that would show its users their checking-account balances, the people said. It has also pitched fraud alerts, some of the people said.

Die Verbesserung der wirtschaftlichen Vergangenheit

Aug 6, 2018 Carmen M. Reinhart ,  Vincent Reinhart, Project Syndicate

Carmen M. Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

Vincent Reinhart is Chief Economist and Investment Strategist at BNY Mellon Asset Management North America Corporation.

CAMBRIDGE – Trockene Berichte einer Statistikbehörde rauben einem nur selten den Atem, aber die jüngste Veröffentlichung über die volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung der Vereinigten Staaten vom US-Büro für Ökonomische Analyse (BEA) ist eine Ausnahme, die die Regel bestätigt. Immerhin handelt es sich hier um den umfassenden Bottom-Up-Fünfjahresbericht der BEA über Einkommen, Produktion und Preise, der bis in die Model-T-Tage der wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten zurückreicht.

Kämpft man sich durch die Details des Berichts, fallen einem die leicht verbesserten Aussichten für das mittelfristige Wachstum auf. Darüber hinaus deuten die Daten über die persönlichen Ersparnisse auf eine geringere Anfälligkeit und stärkere Widerstandskraft des Sektors der Privathaushalte hin. Andererseits ändert der Bericht nichts an den beiden gähnenden staatlichen Löchern – dem Zwillingsdefizit in der Haushalts- und Leistungsbilanz.

Wir Ökonomen müssen nach diesem Bericht unsere Einschätzung der US-Wirtschaft ändern. Erst einmal gibt es zwei gute Nachrichten: Nicht nur stieg das reale BIP im zweiten Quartal 2018 aufs Jahr hochgerechnet um 4,1%, sondern auch die Produktionsdaten für das erste Quartal wurden etwas nach oben angepasst, und dem ging ein deutlich höheres Einkommenswachstum voraus. Der Nettoeffekt dieser Entwicklungen ändert zwar nichts am Gesamtbild – noch immer haben die USA sechs Jahre gebraucht, um sich von der Großen Rezession zu befreien – aber der Wachstumstrend (gemittelt aus Produktion und Einkommen, was eine zuverlässigere Messzahl ergibt als einzeln betrachtet) war schneller als bisher angenommen. Dies ist bedeutsam, weil kleine Steigerungen der Wachstumsrate aufgrund der Aufzinsung langfristig große Vorteile bringen.

Und zweitens, was noch wichtiger ist: Das zusätzliche Haushaltseinkommen wurde nicht durch neue Ausgaben aufgezehrt. Nominal betrachtet hat sich das Sparniveau der Haushalte verglichen mit den vier Vorquartalen fast verdoppelt. Relativ zum verfügbaren Einkommen liegt die persönliche Sparquote nun nicht mehr bei den 3,2% vom Mai, sondern bei 6,8%. Darüber hinaus verlief sie in den letzten fünf Jahren nicht, wie bisher vermutet wurde, steil abwärts, sondern auf einem Niveau von über 6% seitwärts. Die Anpassungen nach oben reichen sogar noch weiter zurück. Seit Mitte der 1990er liegen die prozentualen Unterschiede zwischen den ursprünglichen und den aktualisierten Daten für nominale Privatersparnisse im zweistelligen Bereich.

A Team Comfortable With Letting Trump Be Trump

Date: 07-08-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Four top White House advisers come from different backgrounds, but have one thing in common: They are contemporaries of the president

It’s fair to say that the most important people around President Trump these days are his White House chief of staff John Kelly, his national security adviser John Bolton, his economic council chief Larry Kudlow and his outside legal counsel, Rudy Giuliani.

Those four top advisers come from quite different backgrounds, but here’s one thing they have in common: They are contemporaries of the 72-year-old president. The ages of Messrs. Kelly, Bolton, Kudlow and Giuliani are 68, 69, 70 and 74, respectively.

The point here isn’t so much the ages of these men atop the Trump world, but rather how they collectively represent a significant change in how the White House is staffed and run. The model isn’t merely different from the one Mr. Trump started with; it’s radically different from the previous norm.

These aren’t young people on the rise, as is often the case with White House advisers, but rather veterans near the end of their career arcs. More important, they are content not to try to maneuver Mr. Trump so much as to follow his impulses—even if those impulses are at odds with their own positions.
Mr. Bolton is defending policies on Russia and North Korea that seem in conflict with his long-held positions; Mr. Kudlow is doing the same on tariffs and trade.

Countries team up to save the liberal order from Donald Trump

Date: 02-08-2018
Source: The Economist

As America retreats from global leadership, coalitions of the like-minded try to limit the damage

FOR the past four years senior officials from a group of leading democracies, calling themselves the “D10”, have quietly been meeting once or twice a year to discuss how to co-ordinate strategies to advance the liberal world order. Foreign ministry policy-planners and a few think-tank types would discuss responses to Russia, China, North Korea, Iran—but largely below the radar, so as not to be seen as a cabal of the “old West”. The idea has been to enhance co-operation among “a small number of strategically like-minded and highly capable states”, as Ash Jain, a former member of the State Department’s policy-planning staff, put it in a working paper in 2013.

But, at their next meeting, in Seoul in September, the D10 (America, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan, Australia and South Korea, plus the European Union) will have a new agenda item: America’s global role. Whereas the main threat to the rules-based order used to come from outside the leading democracies, some now fear it comes from within.

This Political Fight Will Go Many More Rounds

Date: 02-08-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Even if Trump retired quietly to Mar-a-Lago, a return to civility would be highly unlikely.

Someday soon, many Democrats think, America will wake up from the Trump nightmare and return to normalcy. Donald Trump, they hope, will prove to be not a new normal but an unfortunate aberration. They’re probably wrong.

Democracy tends to give us the government we deserve. Bill Clinton wasn’t responsible for the rotting of personal morality; he reflected what was already there. Similarly, Mr. Trump did not create the polarization and politicization of everyday life; he’s simply great at riding a wave that was already coming ashore. Mr. Trump’s passing from the national scene will not automatically usher in a new era of comity and harmony.

Long before President Trump, American politics were taking on an increasingly partisan tenor. Gerrymandering succeeded all too well, creating districts so safe that many members of Congress began to fear primary challenges if they deviated from the party hymnal or worked across the aisle. Many legislators started living in their districts and commuting to Washington, diminishing the opportunities for them to meet—and humanize—colleagues from the other party. The growth of campaign expenditures from super PACs and other independent groups increased single-issue funding, while weakening the ability of party leaders to corral their caucuses.

Trump Advisers Urge Raising Additional China Tariffs to 25%

Date: 01-08-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Washington hasn’t made meaningful headway in easing its market-rattling trade dispute with Beijing

The White House and Beijing haven’t  made much progress in trade talks.

As Washington and Beijing struggle to break a trade impasse, some administration advisers are urging President Trump to raise the stakes with a sharp increase in the level of tariffs proposed for $200 billion in Chinese imports targeted for punitive measures.

Trump administration advisers are debating measures that might bring Chinese negotiators to the table. Some are pushing the president to apply tariffs as high as 25% on $200 billion of Chinese imports, up from an original proposal for 10%.

The White House won’t make a final decision until at least late August on those tariffs, which are likely to target consumer goods and food as well as machinery components. Advisers are justifying the steeper tariffs, in part, to make up for the rapid depreciation of the yuan in recent months. Since May 30, the yuan has fallen 6% against the dollar.