Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘USA’

Die nächste Dekade stellt die Weltwirtschaft auf den Kopf

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2019

Date: 09‑12‑2019

Source: Die Welt Von Frank Stocker

Asia, China, Hong Kong, A man wearing a back pack, stands on a high elevated rocky viewpoint on Victoria Peak, overlooking the Hong Kong skyline at dawn, looking out over the illuminated city as the night transforms into early in the morning.

In der nächsten Dekade wird sich die Rangliste der wichtigsten Volkswirtschaften fundamental verändern. Die Bundesrepublik riskiert, zwischen zwei Fronten zu geraten. Zwar gäbe es einen Ausweg, doch Experten zweifeln an Deutschlands Fähigkeiten.

Nur noch wenige Wochen, dann beginnt ein neues Jahrzehnt. Die Zwanziger des letzten Jahrzehnts waren eine Zeit des Aufschwungs und wurden daher später als „die Goldenen Zwanziger“ bezeichnet. Zugleich begann damals aber auch der Übergang des globalen wirtschaftlichen Machtzentrums vom britischen Empire auf die USA.

New York etablierte sich als zweiter wichtiger Finanzplatz, von dem dann am Ende des Jahrzehnts die Schockwellen des großen Börsencrashs mit all seinen Folgen ausgingen. Ob die Zwanziger auch diesmal golden werden, ist ungewiss. Sicher ist jedoch, dass sich in der kommenden Dekade erneut ein Führungswechsel in der Weltwirtschaft vollziehen wird.

China wird die USA überholen, und die Konkurrenz der beiden Mächte wird die Welt vor eine Zerreißprobe stellen. Deutschland wird darunter besonders leiden. Zugleich werden weitere Machtzentren in Ländern entstehen, die bisher kaum jemand im Auge hat.

Seit Jahrzehnten sind die USA die größte Volkswirtschaft der Erde, im vergangenen Jahr betrug die Wirtschaftsleistung rund 20,5 Billionen Dollar, Chinas Bruttoinlandsprodukt lag bei rund zwei Dritteln davon. Allerdings: Vor zehn Jahren umfasste Chinas Wirtschaftskraft weniger als ein Drittel jener der USA, das Reich der Mitte wächst wesentlich schneller.

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Trump Leaves NATO Summit After Video Flap

Posted by hkarner - 6. Dezember 2019

Date: 05‑12‑2019

Source: The Wall Street Journal

U.S. president calls Canada’s Justin Trudeau ‘two‑faced’

LONDON—President Trump called Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “two‑faced” after a video emerged of a group of NATO leaders discussing the U.S. leader without him present, rattling a summit to mark the 70th anniversary of the alliance.

The bickering among Mr. Trump and U.S. allies has become a common motif of international summits as NATO members have grown increasingly divided on a host of issues, including Mr. Trump’s demand that allies lift their military spending to meet NATO’s recommendation of 2% of GDP. That is a longstanding source of tension between Washington and European capitals, many of which argue that a single figure doesn’t capture the extent of their contributions to the alliance.

The video, which was taken at a reception at Buckingham Palace Tuesday evening, captures U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson asking President Emmanuel Macron of France why he was late to the reception. Mr. Macron had come from a meeting with Mr. Trump who earlier in the day had held impromptu news conferences on the margins of his bilateral meetings with the Canadian and French leaders.

Mr. Trudeau chimed in, saying: “He was late because he takes a 40‑minute press conference.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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U.S. Dominance in Global Services Weakens

Posted by hkarner - 5. Dezember 2019

Date: 03‑12‑2019

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Some softness in demand reflects cyclical factors, such as slowing foreign economies, but other forces are weighing on exports and prompting Americans to buy more foreign services

WASHINGTON—Stocks sank Monday over the toll tariffs are taking on trade in manufactured goods, but trade is also showing strain in a different sector that may matter more: services.

While the U.S. usually runs a deficit in goods, it actually runs a surplus in services. Yet that surplus is shrinking. Exports of services barely rose in the first nine months of 2019, while imports rose 5.5%, the Commerce Department said.

The services surplus, at $178.5 billion through September, was down 10% from a year earlier, on pace for its steepest annual decline since 2003. October data are due out Thursday. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Billionaire Problem

Posted by hkarner - 2. Dezember 2019

Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the IMF, is a professor at MIT Sloan, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and co-founder of a leading economics blog, The Baseline Scenario. He is the co-author, with Jonathan Gruber, of Jump-Starting America: How Breakthrough Science Can Revive Economic Growth and the American Dream.

Writing in the 1830s, as the Industrial Revolution gathered pace, Honoré de Balzac anticipated the broader social concern: “The secret of great fortunes without apparent cause is a crime that has been forgotten, because it was properly carried out.” But today’s billionaires make forgetting impossible.

WASHINGTON, DC – Our billionaire problem is getting worse. Any market-oriented economy creates opportunities for new fortunes to be built, including through innovation. More innovation is likely to take place where fewer rules encumber entrepreneurial creativity. Some of this creativity may lead to processes and products that are actually detrimental to public welfare. Unfortunately, by the time the need for legislation or regulation becomes apparent, the innovators have their billions – and they can use that money to protect their interests. 

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The Trade War Won’t Be Won or Lost by President Trump

Posted by hkarner - 27. November 2019

Date: 26-11-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

China was losing global export market share before the trade war

It is difficult for one country—even one as central to the global economy as the U.S.—to reorder global trade on its own.

China-U.S. tensions may not matter for global trade as much as investors seem to think.

Talk of a Sino-American trade war has dominated newspaper headlines, market reports and corporate boardroom discussions for the past 18 months. But, in some ways, what the escalating tariffs have shown most clearly is how difficult it is for one country—even one as central to the global economy as the U.S.—to reorder global trade on its own. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Apple and Microsoft Dwarf the Rest of the Market

Posted by hkarner - 26. November 2019

Date: 25-11-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The two largest U.S. companies helped lift the Dow industrials above 28000 for the first time earlier this month

People check out the new iPhone at an Apple store in Shanghai. Apple and Microsoft have helped buoy the broader technology sector while they vie for the title of largest U.S. firm.

Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. helped lift the Dow industrials above 28000 for the first time earlier this month, a milestone that underscored how much the two largest U.S. companies influence major stock indexes.

Boosted by optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal and sturdy profit growth, the companies have helped buoy the broader technology sector while they vie for the title of largest U.S. firm. Apple shares have soared 66% this year, pushing it ahead of Microsoft with a $1.16 trillion market value. Revenue growth in Apple’s services business and products outside the iPhone have fueled fresh enthusiasm for the stock. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Making America Mediocre

Posted by hkarner - 22. November 2019

WASHINGTON, DC – The private sector performs well when firms can compete on a level playing field. But if the state is willing to influence market outcomes for individual firms, politically connected parties can gain an advantage over their more efficient competitors.

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Technology Stocks Head Toward Best Year Since 2009

Posted by hkarner - 20. November 2019

Date: 19-11-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Regulatory scrutiny and mixed earnings aren’t stopping the group from rallying

Shares of chip maker Applied Materials have soared 90% this year.

Technology stocks are racing toward their best year in a decade, underscoring
investors’ interest in companies offering everything from memory chips to social-media platforms.

Investors have favored shares of rapidly growing, relatively pricey companies over their more low-valued counterparts for much of the more-than-decadelong bull market.

Although the latter group has rebounded over the past three months, technology stocks remain the market’s leaders: The S&P 500 technology sector’s 41% gain for the year has put the group well above the S&P 500’s 25% climb and on course for its biggest one-year advance since 2009.

That is even as investors have had to grapple with issues including controversies over how big tech companies have handled users’ data, antitrust probes and trade tariffs targeting consumer devices.

To many money managers, the gains reflect confidence that technology companies will be able to continue delivering robust sales and earnings growth even as the broader economy shows signs of cooling.

“This is where the growth is over the long term, so you’re always going to get a pretty good bid” for technology shares, said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer of Northern Trust Wealth Management.

Among the biggest gainers in the sector are semiconductor manufacturers, as well as the companies that create devices to make chips. Applied Materials Inc. has soared 90% this year, Tokyo Electron Ltd. has jumped 85%, ASML Holding NV has risen 81% and Lam Research Corp. has more than doubled.

“They are the companies that are enabling the semiconductor manufacturers to make denser chips with more transistors on them,” said John Freeman, vice president of equity research at CFRA. “They hold the keys, so they hold the pricing power at this point.”

Shares of companies focusing on electronic payments also have done particularly well—something investors have attributed to the technology’s growing presence around the world.

“If you would have told me 20 years ago I was going to pull out my Visa card to pay a one-dollar parking meter on a square in Madison, Wis., I’d have said you’re nuts, but now that’s the only compensation they accept,” said Tom Plumb, president and portfolio manager at Plumb Funds.

Mr. Plumb said his firm’s largest holding is Visa Inc., which has risen 36% this year. The firm also holds shares of Mastercard Inc., which are up 49%. Both companies reported better-than-expected earnings in October for their latest quarters, buoyed by higher spending on credit and debit cards.

To be sure, after a big rally, some investors say they believe parts of the technology sector may have run up too far. Nearly one in three fund managers believes the most crowded trade in markets is betting on a rise in U.S. technology shares and other rapidly growing companies, according to a Bank of America survey conducted earlier in November.

And in a field that is particularly reliant upon innovation, some companies will be better investments than others.

“Just because you’re sitting on top of the world, doesn’t mean you’re going to stay there,” Mr. Freeman said. For instance, Oracle Corp. —up 24% for the year—is one of the biggest software companies in the world, but it could still be at risk because it was late to cloud computing, he said.

Then there are earnings: Among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors, technology companies actually posted among the steepest declines in profits for the third quarter, according to FactSet. The sector reported a roughly 5.3% drop in earnings from the year-earlier period, compared with a 2.3% decline for the broader S&P 500.

Within the past few months, a handful of technology-driven companies have reported momentum slowing. Amazon.com Inc. posted its first earnings decline in more than two years and Netflix Inc. missed its subscriber-growth target for a second consecutive quarter.

But money managers say technology stocks have been able to continue rising anyway in part because expectations were low heading into earnings season. As of June 30, analysts had expected the technology sector to report a 9.4% drop in third-quarter earnings, according to FactSet.

Technology executives managed to temper investors’ expectations heading into the second half of the year, Ms. Nixon said, making even the relatively weak earnings better than feared.

That has helped money managers justify buying technology shares that have grown to look pricey.

The S&P 500 technology sector trades at roughly 21 times its next 12 months’ projected earnings, according to FactSet. In comparison, the broader index trades at 18 times.

“This is an environment where we’re finding opportunities,” said Eric Wiegand, investment portfolio manager for the private wealth team of U.S. Bank, which has emphasized software and service companies within technology holdings.

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The High Stakes of the Coming Digital Currency War Nov 11, 2019 Kenneth Rogoff

Posted by hkarner - 12. November 2019

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly and author of The Curse of Cash.

Just as technology has disrupted media, politics, and business, it is on the verge of disrupting America’s ability to leverage faith in its currency to pursue its broader national interests. The real challenge for the United States isn’t Facebook’s proposed Libra; it’s government-backed digital currencies like the one planned by China.

SOUTH BEND – Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg was at least half right when he recently told the United States Congress that there is no US monopoly on regulation of next-generation payments technology. You may not like Facebook’s proposed Libra (pseudo) cryptocurrency, Zuckerberg implied, but a state-run Chinese digital currency with global ambitions is perhaps just a few months away, and you will probably like that even less.

Perhaps Zuckerberg went too far when he suggested that the imminent rise of a Chinese digital currency could undermine overall dollar dominance of global trade and finance – at least the large part that is legal, taxed, and regulated. In fact, US regulators have vast power not only over domestic entities but also over any financial firms that need access to dollar markets, as Europe recently learned to its dismay when the US forced European banks to comply with severe restrictions on doing business with Iran.America’s deep and liquid markets, its strong institutions, and the rule of law will trump Chinese efforts to achieve currency dominance for a long time to come. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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America’s War on Chinese Technology

Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2019

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of Columbia’s Center for Sustainable Development and of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. His books include The End of Poverty, Common Wealth, The Age of Sustainable Development, Building the New American Economy, and most recently, A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism.

In the run up to the Iraq War, then-US Vice President Richard Cheney declared that even if the risk of weapons of mass destruction falling into terrorist hands was tiny, say 1%, we should act as if it were certain by invading. The US is at it again, creating a panic over Chinese technologies by exaggerating tiny risks.

NEW YORK – The worst foreign-policy decision by the United States of the last generation – and perhaps longer – was the “war of choice” that it launched in Iraq in 2003 for the stated purpose of eliminating weapons of mass destruction that did not, in fact, exist. Understanding the illogic behind that disastrous decision has never been more relevant, because it is being used to justify a similarly misguided US policy today. 

The decision to invade Iraq followed the illogic of then-US Vice President Richard Cheney, who declared that even if the risk of WMDs falling into terrorist hands was tiny – say, 1% – we should act as if that scenario would certainly occur.Such reasoning is guaranteed to lead to wrong decisions more often than not. Yet the US and some of its allies are now using the Cheney Doctrine to attack Chinese technology. The US government argues that because we can’t know with certainty that Chinese technologies are safe, we should act as if they are certainly dangerous and bar them. Proper decision-making applies probability estimates to alternative actions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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