Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘USA’

The Real Reason They Hate Trump

Posted by hkarner - 23. Oktober 2018

Date: 22-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal by David Gelernter

He’s the average American in exaggerated form—blunt, simple, willing to fight, mistrustful of intellectuals.

Every big U.S. election is interesting, but the coming midterms are fascinating for a reason most commentators forget to mention: The Democrats have no issues. The economy is booming and America’s international position is strong. In foreign affairs, the U.S. has remembered in the nick of time what Machiavelli advised princes five centuries ago: Don’t seek to be loved, seek to be feared.

The contrast with the Obama years must be painful for any honest leftist. For future generations, the Kavanaugh fight will stand as a marker of the Democratic Party’s intellectual bankruptcy, the flashing red light on the dashboard that says “Empty.” The left is beaten.

This has happened before, in the 1980s and ’90s and early 2000s, but then the financial crisis arrived to save liberalism from certain destruction. Today leftists pray that Robert Mueller will put on his Superman outfit and save them again.

For now, though, the left’s only issue is “We hate Trump.” This is an instructive hatred, because what the left hates about Donald Trump is precisely what it hates about America. The implications are important, and painful. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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In Win for Trump, Merkel Changes Course on U.S. Gas Imports

Posted by hkarner - 23. Oktober 2018

Date: 22-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Chancellor calls her decision to open Germany up to U.S. liquefied natural gas a ‘strategic’ move

German Chancellor Angela Merkel called a decision to co-finance a liquefied natural gas shipping terminal a ‘strategic’ move, according to people familiar with the matter.

BERLIN—Chancellor Angela Merkel has offered government support to efforts to open up Germany to U.S. gas, a key concession to President Trump as he tries to loosen Russia’s grip on Europe’s largest energy market.

Over breakfast this month, the chancellor told a small group of lawmakers her government had decided to co-finance the construction of a €500 million ($576 million) liquefied natural gas shipping terminal in northern Germany, according to people familiar with the meeting, giving a crucial nudge to a project that had failed to get off the ground for years in a country that gets most of its gas cheaply from Russia.

Mr. Trump has intensively lobbied Europe to buy significant amounts of LNG as part of his campaign to rewrite the terms of trade relations. German and U.S. officials said Berlin hoped embracing U.S. gas might help solve a protracted trade dispute and possibly even defuse threats by Washington to sanction Nord Stream 2, an unbuilt German-Russian gas pipeline that would double Russia’s existing gas export capacity to Germany. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Powerlessness of the Most Powerful

Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2018

Oct 20, 2018 Javier Solana, Project Syndicate

Javier Solana was EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain. He is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

The president of the leading global power has made it clear that he has no interest in getting involved in resolving any of the world’s shared problems, dressing up his foreign policy as one of „principled realism.“ But there is nothing principled or realistic about it.

MADRID – The annual General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly is one of the most notable events on the international diplomatic calendar. As usual, this year’s meeting, during the last week of September, brought together a long list of world leaders, although perhaps the term “world leader” should no longer be used so lightly. The president of the leading global power has made it clear that he has no interest in getting involved in resolving any of the world’s shared problems. Unfortunately, he is not alone.

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China v America: The end of engagement

Posted by hkarner - 19. Oktober 2018

Date: 18-10-2018
Source: The Economist

How the world’s two superpowers have become rivals

For the past quarter century America’s approach to China has been founded on a belief in convergence. Political and economic integration would not just make China wealthier, they would also make it more liberal, pluralistic and democratic. There were crises, such as a face-off in the Taiwan Strait in 1996 or the downing of a spy-plane in 2001. But America cleaved to the conviction that, with the right incentives, China would eventually join the world order as a “responsible stakeholder”.

Today convergence is dead. America has come to see China as a strategic rival—a malevolent actor and a rule-breaker. The Trump administration accuses it of interfering in America’s culture and politics, of stealing intellectual property and trading unfairly, and of seeking not just leadership in Asia, but also global dominance. It condemns China’s record on human rights at home and an aggressive expansion abroad. This month Mike Pence, the vice-president, warned that China was engaged in a “whole-of-government” offensive. His speech sounded ominously like an early bugle-call in a new cold war. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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U.S. Stocks Surge, Erasing Recent Losses

Posted by hkarner - 17. Oktober 2018

   Date: 16-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Broad rally marks the latest bout of volatility for major indexes; shares of Goldman and Morgan Stanley jump

U.S. stocks soared Tuesday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 400 points, as gains in everything from technology firms to banks helped major indexes claw back recent losses.

Tuesday’s moves marked the latest bout of volatility for stocks, which have swung throughout October as investors have grappled with fresh questions about the nine-year bull market’s durability.

With bond yields at multiyear highs, many say stocks have begun to lose some of the luster they held for years in an environment of ultralow interest rates. Investors are also contending with recent weakness in technology shares, which some worry look overextended after dominating the latest leg of the bull market.

Yet even with those worries, many feel the domestic economy still looks strong—something that they say has helped the U.S. stock market keep charging on.

Shares of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley jumped after the two firms said third-quarter profits surged double-digit percentages, thanks to a flurry of deal making and trading. Even technology firms, which had led major indexes lower Monday, got a jolt higher Tuesday. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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What if Obama Voters Remember How Lousy the Obama Era Was?

Posted by hkarner - 14. Oktober 2018

Date: 13-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By James Freeman

The left worries that young people and minorities don’t hate Trump enough.

During the Obama administration there was much confident chatter on the left about the “coalition of the ascendant.” This rising population of young people, social liberals and minority voters not only carried Barack Obama to two national victories but was allegedly destined by demography to exert an increasing leftward tug on American politics. The potential problem for leaders of this coalition is that along the way some of their followers may have noticed the results of their policies.

A few warning signs have been appearing lately as the Obama generation makes it way into the workplace and as minority voters seem unwilling to hate President Donald Trump as much as Democratic politicians and the press expect them to do.

“It’s time for some alarm about the midterms,” writes David Leonhardt of the New York Times. “The most recent polls have underscored the real possibility that Republicans will keep control of both the Senate and House. According to Mr. Leonhardt: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Trump administration is right to redefine relations with China

Posted by hkarner - 13. Oktober 2018

Date: 11-10-2018
Source: The Economist: Lexington

It is also very bad at managing them

THE National Security Strategy released by President Donald Trump’s administration last year augured a major change in China-US relations. Where its predecessors lauded the merits of co-operation with the emerging superpower, Mr Trump’s document promised competition and resistance to Chinese trade and other abuses. The tirade Mike Pence launched against China last week doubled down on that commitment. In a speech delivered at the Hudson Institute, a short walk from Congress and the ongoing Kavanaugh brouhaha, the vice-president castigated the Chinese for bullying investors, buying allies with cheap loans, “tearing down crosses” and much else. This may turn out to be Mr Trump’s most significant mark on the world. America’s new adversarial posture towards China is overdue, popular and probably irreversible.

That is notwithstanding the fact that the vice-president’s speech was in some ways cynical and reckless. Much of it seemed to have more of an eye on the mid-terms than the world. “To put it bluntly, President Trump’s leadership is working,” he purred. Mr Pence then parroted his boss’s recent, probably bogus, claim that Chinese “covert actors, front groups and propaganda” were spreading more disinformation in America than the Russian spies to whom Mr Trump may owe his job. He gave no sense of which Chinese affronts he considered most grievous. He therefore offered only a glint of a counter-strategy. It was disorientating to witness such tawdry politics at such a potentially momentous moment. Conversely, it was a useful reminder, in Trump-drunk Washington, DC, that some things are bigger than Mr Trump. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The New and Not Improved NAFTA

Posted by hkarner - 12. Oktober 2018

Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, previously served as a member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers. He is a research associate at the US National Bureau of Economic Research, where he is a member of the Business Cycle Dating Committee, the official US arbiter of recession and recovery.

US President Donald Trump has called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which succeeds NAFTA, “the single greatest agreement ever signed.“ In reality, it is not as good as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, from which Trump withdrew the US upon taking office, nor is it particularly better than the agreement it replaced.

CAMBRIDGE – US President Donald Trump acts as if he has pulled off a smashing victory by replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) – supposedly “the worst trade deal ever” – with the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. But the truth is that, while this outcome is better than an end to free trade in North America, the USMCA is no improvement over the status quo.

Of course, this is Trump’s modus operandi: threaten to do something catastrophic, so people are relieved when things get only a little bit worse. That is what he did with North Korea, when he insulted its leader, Kim Jong-un, and threatened to rain down “fire and fury” on the country. Compared to nuclear conflict, his eventual meeting with Kim seemed like a triumph, even though it produced little actual progress. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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What’s Bubbling Under the Surface of the Stock Market

Posted by hkarner - 11. Oktober 2018

Date: 10-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The best and the worst performing stocks did a role reversal. It’s something investors should keep a close eye on.

The Last First, and the First Last
The best performing stocks of the past week were among the worst in the year upto last week’s reverse, and vice-versa.

The pillars of this year’s stock rally crumbled in the past week, even as the overall market had only a mild decline thanks to support from what had been among the most-hated companies.

Beneath the small fall of 1.5% was a near-perfect reversal, with the pedigree performers turning into market mongrels and many of the year’s worst stocks back in favor.

The leading examples are dramatic: General Electric was the best stock in the S&P 500 to own over the past week—and the 496th performer for the year up to that point. Advanced Micro Devices , AMD -6.79% Abiomed and Netflix were by far the shares to hold this year until last week, and since then all have lost money, ranking 393rd, 481st and 443rd in the index.

The reversal was marketwide. Grouped into deciles of roughly 50 stocks (there are 505 stocks in the inaptly named index) ordered by their performance over the past week it is clear that the best performers were previously the worst, and the worst performers were previously among the best.

The pattern isn’t so clear when sorted the other way round. The best performers for the year so far did become the worst: The top 50 stocks on average made 51% up to Wednesday last week and lost 3.7% since then. But plenty of stocks that had a terrible time this year carried on being awful in the past week, too. The bottom 50 stocks on average fell 27% for the year to last Wednesday, before losing another 2.4% since, to make them the second-worst decile.

I’m hopeful that the reversal will see a resurgence of cheap value stocks previously abandoned by investors, mitigating losses among the fashionable FANGs and other technology disrupters. But for now value stocks are also down, just by less than the highflying growth stocks.

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A Frenzy of New Market Bets Is Fading

Posted by hkarner - 11. Oktober 2018

Date: 10-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Investors have funneled trillions into passively managed funds since the financial crisis, but the flood of new money is slowing

One sign that investors’ doubts are growing despite a buoyant market for U.S. stocks: the slowdown of new money into the investment world’s most popular products.

Net inflows into U.S. mutual funds and exchange-traded funds are down 46% through the first three quarters of the year, according to new data tracked by Morningstar. They totaled $281.7 billion this year through September, compared with $517.2 billion during the same period in 2017, Morningstar said.

Slow Flows
Clients are pulling money from actively-managed funds and committing less newcash to cheaper, passively-managed investments. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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