Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘USA’

America’s shale firms don’t give a frack about financial returns

Posted by hkarner - 27. März 2017

Date: 25-03-2017
Source: The Economist: Schumpeter

Exploration and production companies are poised to go on another investment spree

INSIDE the boardrooms and bars of Houston, the spiritual capital of America’s energy industry, the swagger is back. The oil price may only be at $48, or half the level it was three years ago. But shale fracking—the business of getting oil and gas out of rocks by blasting them with water and sand—is booming once again after the crash of 2014-16. Exploration and production (E&P) companies are about to go on an investment spree. Demand is soaring for the industry’s raw materials: sand, other people’s money, roughnecks and ice-cold beer.

Shale’s second coming is testament to Texan grit. But the industry’s never-say-die spirit may explain why it has done next to nothing about its dire finances. The business has burned up cash for 34 of the last 40 quarters, according to figures on the top 60 listed E&P firms collected by Bloomberg, a data provider. With the exception of airlines, Chinese state enterprises and Silicon Valley unicorns—private firms valued at more than $1bn—shale firms are on an unparalleled money-losing streak. About $11bn was torched in the latest quarter, as capital expenditures exceeded cashflows. The cash-burn rate may well rise again this year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Nationalists and Globalists

Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2017

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U.S. Stocks Overvalued? Time to Look at Europe

Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2017

Date: 23-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Balance of political risks seems to have shifted

The market’s political pendulum may be swinging back. Hope for U.S. President Donald Trump’s new administration has been driving U.S. markets, while fear of populist upheaval has gripped Europe. The balance of risks are now shifting in Europe’s favor.

Tuesday’s 1.2% drop in the S&P 500 is mostly notable for how long it has been since the market has seen such an event. The last time the index fell more than 1% was in October. But it also represents a challenge to a market that has been running on hopes for good things to happen, namely optimism about corporate tax reform and growth. Bond markets have been more circumspect, with yields locked in a relatively narrow range since December.

By contrast, the conversation in Europe has been all about avoiding bad things, especially the risks posed by 2017’s electoral calendar. The French presidential elections are set to dominate headlines in the next two months, but the closely watched Dutch vote passed without drama. And meanwhile, the European economy has been moving ahead. In February, IHS Markit’s eurozone composite purchasing managers index hit a near six-year high at 56. The European Central Bank has started to sound more confident as the threat of deflation has passed. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mnuchin’s Mission

Posted by hkarner - 23. März 2017

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Boeing und Trump: Vom Prügelknaben zum Präsidenten-Liebling?

Posted by hkarner - 22. März 2017

Nach einem Streit auf Twitter scheint nun wieder alles in bester Ordnung zu sein. Boeing dürfte von der Trump-Präsidentschaft profitieren.

Eine scharfe Twitter-Attacke sorgte zunächst für Verstimmung, doch derzeit sieht Boeing wie ein großer Gewinner der Präsidentschaft Donald Trumps aus. Der Luftfahrtriese soll von einer satten Erhöhung des Verteidigungsetats profitieren, zudem verspricht Trump niedrigere Steuern, lockerere Umweltauflagen sowie kräftige Investitionen in die Airport-Infrastruktur. Auch soll Boeing Rückendeckung im Wettkampf mit ausländischen Konkurrenten erhalten. Das verschafft dem Airbus-Rivalen Oberwasser – allerdings könnte es mit Trump noch ungemütlich werden.

Wie gut man sich momentan versteht, zeigte sich im Februar beim Trump-Besuch eines Boeing-Werks im US-Bundesstaat South Carolina. Der Konzern hatte dort stolz eine neue Variante des Langstreckenjets 787 „Dreamliner“ vorgestellt. „Ich muss schon sagen: Das ist ein schönes Flugzeug“, schwärmte der Präsident vor der Belegschaft. Zum krönenden Abschluss seiner Rede verkündete er: „Gott segne Boeing!“. Konzernchef Dennis Muilenberg strahlte bis über beide Ohren.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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All the President’s Lies

Posted by hkarner - 22. März 2017

Date: 21-03-2017
Source: The New York Times

The ninth week of Donald Trump’s presidency began with the F.B.I. director calling him a liar.

The director, the very complicated James Comey, didn’t use the L-word in his congressional testimony Monday. Comey serves at the pleasure of the president, after all. But his meaning was clear as could be. Trump has repeatedly accused Barack Obama of wiretapping his phones, and Comey explained there is “no information that supports” the claim.

I’ve previously argued that not every untruth deserves to be branded with the L-word, because it implies intent and somebody can state an untruth without doing so knowingly. George W. Bush didn’t lie when he said Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, and Obama didn’t lie when he said people who liked their current health insurance could keep it. They made careless statements that proved false (and they deserved much of the criticism they got).

But the current president of the United States lies. He lies in ways that no American politician ever has before. He has lied about — among many other things — Obama’s birthplace, John F. Kennedy’s assassination, Sept. 11, the Iraq War, ISIS, NATO, military veterans, Mexican immigrants, Muslim immigrants, anti-Semitic attacks, the unemployment rate, the murder rate, the Electoral College, voter fraud and his groping of women. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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America’s Confidence Economy

Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2017

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Bond-Yield Rebound Poses a Threat to Stock Rally

Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2017

Date: 20-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Higher bond yields, whether they signal a healthy economy or stretched stock valuations, appear to have staying power, analysts say

U.S. bond yields are topping a key measure of the dividends that large U.S. companies pay—a shift that has broad implications for investors who have viewed higher stock yields as underpinning an eight-year-long bull market.

At 2.50%, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note on Friday exceeded the 1.91% dividend yield on the S&P 500, according to FactSet. The dividend figure reflects annualized payouts by companies in the index as a proportion of their current share price.

Rising bond yields generally send a signal that the economy is healthy and that demand for goods and services is rising. But increases in long-term yields over time also stand to shift investor preferences that recently have been strongly skewed in favor of stock investments. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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As Easy-Money Era Winds Down, Investors Bet on Growth

Posted by hkarner - 20. März 2017

Date: 19-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Exuberant U.S. markets are in some cases offsetting central banks’ shift away from low rates

Global stock markets as a whole have rallied over the past half year.

Central banks around the world are signaling a move away from ultra-easy money, but financial markets are responding as if the low-interest-rate party isn’t stopping.

A day after the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates a quarter percentage point, the People’s Bank of China raised a suite of key short-term interest rates and the Bank of England signaled that an increase in rates may not be far off. Turkey also raised a lending rate, while central banks in Japan, Norway and Indonesia held rates steady.

The events marked a striking turn from the low-interest-rate policies many central banks ushered in as recently as last year to spur markets and slow-growing economies. Low rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow, spend and invest and tend to push up the value of asset prices like stocks. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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G20: Trump-Regierung verhindert Bekenntnis zum Freihandel

Posted by hkarner - 19. März 2017

18. März 2017, 18:57 derstandard.at

 G20-Länder nach US-Blockade nur mit Minimal-Konsens zum Handel – IWF-Chefin warnt davor, die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft auszubremsen

Baden-Baden – In der G20-Gruppe der führenden Industrie- und Schwellenländer ist der Handelskonflikt mit den USA offen ausgebrochen. Die neue Regierung in Washington verhinderte nach heftigem Widerstand ein gemeinsames Bekenntnis zu freiem Handel und gegen Marktabschottung. Die Finanzminister und Notenbankchefs verständigten sich am Samstag nach zweitägigem Ringen in Baden-Baden nur auf einen Minimalkonsens. In der Abschlusserklärung heißt es knapp: „Wir arbeiten daran, den Beitrag des Handels für unsere Volkswirtschaften zu stärken.“ Damit konnte Gastgeber Deutschland trotz teils nächtelanger Kompromisssuche nur eine Einigung auf den kleinsten gemeinsamen Nenner erreichen. Themen wie Prinzipien für robustere Volkswirtschaften oder Investitionspartnerschäften für Afrika gerieten in den Hintergrund. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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