Postenkarussell in Nationalbank und FMA quietscht

 Welche großartigen Lösungen sich da anbahnen! (hfk)

16. September 2017, 14:00 derstandard.at

Der FMA-Vorstand sollte eigentlich noch vor der Wahl verlängert werden, allerdings sind nun Dissonanzen aufgetaucht

Wien – Die bevorstehende Nationalratswahl wirft ihren Schatten voraus – und die fallen auch auf die Finanzmarktaufsichtsbehörde FMA und die Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB). Wie so oft vor Wahlen geht es um Machtabsicherung per Personalentscheidungen – und Letztere stehen bei FMA und OeNB demnächst an. Die Verträge des FMA-Vorstands, von Helmut Ettl (rot; sitzt als Exnotenbanker auf einem Ticket der OeNB) und Klaus Kumpfmüller (schwarz; ihn hat das Finanzministerium nominiert), laufen kommendes Jahr aus. Ihrer Vertragsverlängerung stehe nichts im Wege – so hieß es bis vor kurzem. Am 24. Juni wurden die Posten ausgeschrieben, die Bewerbungsfrist lief einen Monat – und nach den Hearings stand fest, dass die Verträge von Ettl und Kumpfmüller um weitere fünf Jahre verlängert werden sollen. Diese Entscheidung sollte plangemäß beim Ministerrat am kommenden Mittwoch getroffen werden, die Ernennung folgt dann durch den Bundespräsidenten.

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The Persistence of Global Imbalances

Carmen Reinhart

Carmen Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

AUG 30, 2017 Project Syndicate

JACKSON HOLE, WYOMING – The primary focus of this year’s Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which convenes the world’s leading central bankers, was not explicitly monetary policy. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s opening remarks emphasized the changes in regulatory policy that followed the 2008 global financial crisis, while European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s luncheon address dwelled on the need for continued reforms in Europe to sustain the eurozone’s recent economic recovery.

But it was global trade and finance – the key forces shaping the economic outlook and financial market conditions with which central bankers grapple – that took center stage. On the effects of the globalization of trade in goods and services, the discussion emphasized the costs to domestic employment, wages, and inequality. On the finance side, international capital flows and global imbalances were the primary focus.

U.K. Government Overhauls Corporate Governance as Country Prepares to Leave EU

Date: 30-08-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Guidelines aim strengthening the country’s reputation as a leader in corporate governance

U.K. Business Secretary Greg Clark said reforms will ensure the country’s  largest companies are more transparent and accountable to their employees and shareholders.

The U.K. government Tuesday launched guidelines on executive pay and worker representation aimed at strengthening the country’s reputation as a leader in corporate governance as it moves to leave the European Union.

Around 900 listed companies for the first time have to publish annual pay ratios between chief executive and their average U.K. worker, according to a set of reforms published by the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

More Action Needed on European Bank Profitability

By John Caparusso, Rohit Goel and Will Kerry, IMF Blog

August 30, 2017

European banking has made considerable progress in the past few years: Banks have built up capital, regulation is stronger and supervision has been enhanced. But profitability remains weak, posing risks for financial stability.

In a sample of more than 170 large European lenders with combined assets of $35 trillion, roughly half generated a weak return on equity in 2016, and banks representing only 15 percent of assets generated a healthy return on equity, defined as more than 10 percent. Weak profitability is also shown in a low return on assets for domestic banks in many European countries. The drivers of these weak returns reflect varying combinations of low income, high costs, or provisions needed to build buffers against non-performing assets.

Impact on stability

The Trump Administration’s Economic Potential

Koichi Hamada

Koichi Hamada is Professor Emeritus at Yale University and a special adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

AUG 29, 2017 Project Syndicate

TOKYO – President Donald Trump’s unpredictable approach to policymaking has fueled widespread concern about where the United States is headed. Yet America’s stock market has performed well since Trump’s election, faltering only when his administration’s political future appears to be in doubt. That is no accident: on the economic front, Trump’s approach might have some redeeming qualities.

From the outset, the Trump administration has maintained a pro-business attitude, exemplified by his commitment to deregulation, raising hopes among investors of a boost to the US and global economies. To be sure, efforts to roll back, say, environmental protections will ultimately do serious harm to the US, even if they allow some companies to improve their bottom line in the short term. But the Trump administration’s eagerness to free financial markets of excessive regulation may ultimately prove beneficial for all.

In a Blast From a Financial Crisis Past, Synthetic CDOs Are Back

Date: 29-08-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Market for collateralized debt obligations is on the rise again after years on the decline

A decade ago, investors’ bad bets on collateralized debt obligations helped fuel the crisis, but now more investors are returning to CDOs.

LONDON—The synthetic CDO, a villain of the global financial crisis, is back.

A decade ago, investors’ bad bets on collateralized debt obligations helped fuel the crisis. Billed as safe, they turned out to be anything but. Now, more investors are returning to CDOs—and so are concerns that excess is seeping into the aging bull market.

In the U.S., the CDO market sank steadily in the years after the financial crisis but has been fairly flat since 2014. In Europe, the total size of the market is rising again—up 5.6% annually in the first quarter of the year and 14% in the last quarter of 2016, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

The Post-Crisis Elephant in the Room

A very true analysis, which hints correctly at the fault of the regulation agencies and a common public „taboo“ (hfk)

Antonio Foglia

Antonio Foglia, a board member of Banca del Ceresio, is a member of the Global Partners’ Council of the Institute for New Economic Thinking.

AUG 24, 2017 Project Syndicate

LONDON – The global financial crisis that began in August 2007 resulted from a massive, unavoidable cognitive mistake on the part of regulators and bankers. It is now ten years later, and yet few are willing to admit this fact, let alone explore appropriate remedies.

In fact, the opposite has happened: regulators have piled on ever-more complex rules, and too-big-to-fail banks have become still bigger. Even worse, the wrong-headed response to the crisis threatens not just the financial sector, but open societies generally.

To be sure, the financial crisis had different catalysts in different countries, including subprime loans, real-estate bubbles, sovereign debt, and economic downturns that affected small and medium-size enterprises. But there was also a common denominator: a structural weakness in the banking sector – already one of the economy’s most regulated sectors – that left highly regulated banks unable to withstand economic perturbations as well as unregulated financial institutions.

Who Wants to Deregulate Finance?

Howard Davies

Howard Davies, the first chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority (1997-2003), is Chairman of the Royal Bank of Scotland. He was Director of the London School of Economics (2003-11) and served as Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and Director-General of the Confederation of British Industry.

AUG 24, 2017 Project Syndicate

LONDON – Since a revolving door was installed at the entrance to the West Wing of the White House, it has been difficult to keep track of the comings and goings in America’s corridors of power. Anything written about the Trump administration’s personnel and policies may be invalid before it is published.

At least for the time being, however, the key economic-policy actors remain in place. Steve Mnuchin is still Treasury Secretary and has not been mentioned in dispatches during the latest power struggles. Gary Cohn continues to chair the National Economic Council, though he is reported to be unhappy about some of the president’s statements on non-economic issues. And of course Janet Yellen is still at the helm at the Federal Reserve, at least until February next year.

Nie wieder Finanzkrise?

Von André Tomfort, Wiener Zeitung, 21/07/2017

• Gastkommentar: Warum sich die Chefin der US-Notenbank fatal geirrt haben könnte.

Vor kurzem machte die Chefin der US-Notenbank, Janet Yellen, eine bemerkenswerte Aussage: Auf einer Pressekonferenz in London sagte sie, dass sie nicht mehr damit rechne, in ihrem Leben nochmals eine schwere Finanzkrise wie im Jahr 2008 zu erleben. Sie begründete ihren Optimismus mit den Reformen des Finanzsystems und damit, dass die Banken jetzt krisenfest seien.

Können wir der Fed-Chefin wirklich glauben? Der Sturm der vergangenen Finanzkrise ist abgeebbt, und die Aktien- und Immobilienmärkte bewegen sich in einem langfristigen Aufwärtstrend. Dies ist nicht zuletzt der expansiven Geldpolitik von Yellen und ihren Kollegen in der Eurozone und in Asien zu verdanken. Knapp ein Jahrzehnt lang rekordtiefe Zinsen verfehlen ihre Wirkung an den Finanzmärkten nicht, und auch die globale Konjunktur hat seit einiger Zeit wieder an Fahrt aufgenommen. Trotzdem ist die Nervosität überall zu spüren, und viele Anleger fragen sich: „Wo stehen wir heute? Und wie sicher sind unsere Anlagen?“

Die Immobilienkrise 2008 und 2009 war kein Einzelfall

Elon Musk Lays Out Worst-Case Scenario for AI Threat

Date: 16-07-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Powerful technology will threaten all human jobs, could even spark a war, Tesla CEO says

Elon Musk . Mr. Musk warned about the dangers of artificial intelligence and said high price of Tesla shares reflects the optimism of the future of the company.

Elon Musk warned a gathering of U.S. governors that they need to be concerned about the potential dangers from the rise of artificial intelligence and called for the creation of a regulatory body to guide development of the powerful technology.

Speaking Saturday at the National Governors Association meeting in Rhode Island, the chief executive of electric-car maker Tesla Inc. and rocket-maker Space Exploration Technologies Corp. laid out several worst-case scenarios for AI, saying that the technology will threaten all human jobs and that an AI could even spark a war. “It is the biggest risk that we face as a civilization,” he said.

Mr. Musk has been vocal about his concerns about AI and helped create OpenAI, a nonprofit research group that aims for the safe development of the technology. He suggested to the governors that a regulatory agency needs to be formed to begin gaining insight into fast-moving AI development followed by putting regulations into place.