Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2017
Source: Foreign Affairs
Prior to 2016, debates about the global order mostly revolved around its structure and the question of whether the United States should actively lead it or should retrench, pulling back from its alliances and other commitments. But during the past year or two, it became clear that those debates had missed a key point: today’s crucial foreign policy challenges arise less from problems between countries than from domestic politics within them. That is one lesson of the sudden and surprising return of populism to Western countries, a trend that found its most powerful expression last year in the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU, or Brexit, and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president.
It can be hard to pin down the meaning of “populism,” but its crucial identifying mark is the belief that each country has an authentic “people” who are held back by the collusion of foreign forces and self-serving elites at home. A populist leader claims to represent the people and seeks to weaken or destroy institutions such as legislatures, judiciaries, and the press and to cast off external restraints in defense of national sovereignty. Populism comes in a range of ideological flavors. Left-wing populists want to “soak the rich” in the name of equality; right-wing populists want to remove constraints on wealth in the name of growth. Populism is therefore defined not by a particular view of economic distribution but by a faith in strong leaders and a dislike of limits on sovereignty and of powerful institutions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, capitalism, Elites, Foreign Affairs, Globalization, Liberal Democracy, Populism, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 22. April 2017
Source: Foreign Affairs
Let the Data Flow
Over the last 25 years, the Internet has become a conduit for trillions of dollars in commerce, transforming industries, national economies, and the nature of globalization itself. Today, as global trade in goods and services has plateaued and global financial flows have declined dramatically, cross-border data flows are exploding in volume. Data flows in and out of the United States alone are estimated at 80 terabytes per minute—eight times the size of the entire print content of the Library of Congress. Since 2005, they have increased by a factor of 80, from just 5 terabits per second to an estimated 400 per second.
International data flows take many forms. Individuals generate them through e-mails, Skype calls, e-commerce transactions, social media posts, and Internet searches, as well as through the consumption of digital goods from around the world. By 2020, consumers are expected to spend $1 trillion on cross-border e-commerce. But these flows are more than just consumer transactions and social media posts. They are an integral part of the way companies now operate. According to research we conducted at the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), cross-border data flows already make a larger contribution to global GDP than the goods trade. We term this rapid increase in both the size and the value of cross-border data flows “digital globalization.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Digital Economy, Foreign Affairs, Globalization | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2017
András Szigetvari aus Washington, 20. April 2017, 07:15 derstandard.at
Der Streit um Globalisierung, Freihandel und Ungleichheit dominiert Wahlkämpfe in Europa und den USA. Nun springt der Währungsfonds auf das Thema auf
Washington – Von ihrem kleinen Büro an der 19th Street in Washington, D.C., hat Mitali Das in den vergangenen Monaten die Revolution vorbereitet. Die Ökonomin arbeitet für den Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF). Sie sammelte Daten aus dutzenden Ländern. Ein Team unter ihrer Leitung führte die Kalkulationen durch, jedes Ergebnis wurde penibel nachgeprüft. Fehler durften nicht passieren, dafür war die Materie zu heikel. In einer soeben publizierten Studie ist Mitali Das der Frage nachgegangen, wie sich globaler Handel und technischer Fortschritt auf Einkommen und Einkommensverteilung ausgewirkt haben.
Wo der IWF in dieser Frage ideologisch steht, ist klar: Jahrzehntelang haben die Experten des Fonds gepredigt, dass Liberalisierung und Marktöffnung der beste Weg zu mehr Wohlstand für alle sind. Ungleichheit und Verteilungsfragen spielten in diesen Überlegungen keine Rolle. Die Arbeiten von Das, einer indischstämmigen ehemaligen Professorin an der Columbia-Universität, haben das verändert.
Die Ökonomin und ihre Kollegen haben sich angesehen, wie sich der Anteil der Arbeitseinkommen im Verhältnis zur Wirtschaftsleistung (BIP) entwickelt hat. Unter die Lupe genommen wurde die Entwicklung dieser Lohnquote in 50 Ländern seit 1991. Das Ergebnis: Weltweit erhalten Arbeiter und Angestellte heute in der Mehrzahl der Länder einen geringeren Teil vom erwirtschafteten Wohlstand als zu Beginn der 1990er-Jahre. Auf Kapitalerträge dagegen entfällt ein größerer Teil des Kuchens. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Automation, Das, Globalization, IMF, Inequality, Standard, Wages | Leave a Comment »
Posted by sschleicher - 13. April 2017
Christoph Gisiger, Chicago, Finanz und Wirtschaft, April 7, 2017
Raghuram Rajan: «The US housing boom was an attempt to ward off the changes caused by technological progress, global trade and the disappearance of many middle-class jobs.»
Raghuram Rajan, Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago and former governor of the Reserve Bank of India, warns of more turmoil ahead if the developed world fails to adapt to the fundamental forces of global change.
It is a pivotal moment on the eve of the financial crisis. In the late summer of 2005, the world’s most influential central bankers and economists gather in Jackson Hole at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. The atmosphere is carefree. Financial markets have nicely recovered from the bust of the dotcom bubble and the global economy is humming. Under the topic »Lessons for the Future» the presentations celebrate the era of Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who has announced to resign in a few months. Since 1987 at the helm of the world’s most powerful central bank, he presided over a period of continuous growth and was one of the leading forces of deregulation in the financial sector. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Finanzkrise, Globalization, Rajan | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 12. April 2017
Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy and, most recently, Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science.
APR 11, 2017 Project Syndicate
CAMBRIDGE – It appears that a new consensus has taken hold these days among the world’s business and policy elites about how to address the anti-globalization backlash that populists such as Donald Trump have so ably exploited. Gone are the confident assertions that globalization benefits everyone: we must, the elites now concede, accept that globalization produces both winners and losers. But the correct response is not to halt or reverse globalization; it is to ensure that the losers are compensated.
The new consensus is stated succinctly by Nouriel Roubini: the backlash against globalization “can be contained and managed through policies that compensate workers for its collateral damage and costs,” he argues. “Only by enacting such policies will globalization’s losers begin to think that they may eventually join the ranks of its winners.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Free Trade, Globalization, Inequality, Project Syndicate, Rodrik, Roubini | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 12. April 2017
Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.
APR 11, 2017 Project Syndicate
BRUSSELS – Most reports about globalization in recent years have focused on its problems, such as declining levels of trade and the abandonment of “mega-regional” trade agreements. Indeed, US President Donald Trump has now terminated the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – a trade deal among a dozen Pacific-rim countries, including the United States and Japan; and negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the US and the European Union have come to a halt.
But headlines can be misleading. Although new trade deals can spark controversy, it is highly unlikely that protectionism will prevail. This is true even in the US, where Trump was elected on the promise of getting tough with major trading partners such as Mexico and China. So far, the Trump administration has taken no action suggesting that a new era of protectionism is at hand. And in Europe, the benefits of economic openness have been widely acknowledged, and negotiations on a free-trade agreement with Japan are currently underway. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Globalization, Gros, Project Syndicate, Protectionism, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 10. April 2017
Die Organisationen IWF, WTO und Weltbank nehmen die Verlierer der Globalisierung unter die Lupe. Ihr Vorschlag: Die Staaten müssen diesen Menschen mehr helfen – mit Geld.
Wien/Berlin. Mehr Handel, weniger Schranken, steigende Produktivität und höheres Wachstum. Das war, vereinfacht gesagt, das Wirtschaftskonzept der vergangenen Jahrzehnte. Und zwar weltweit. Aber angesichts des wachsenden Unmuts, den sich linke Globalisierungskritiker und rechte Populisten zu Nutze machen, werden die Vertreter von Internationalem Währungsfonds (IWF), Weltbank und Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) langsam nervös.
Es sei nun Aufgabe der Regierungen, Bürgern und Arbeitern zu helfen, die von der Globalisierung nicht direkt profitieren würden, hieß es am Montag bei der Präsentation des globalen Wirtschaftsberichts der drei multilateralen Organisationen: „Der Handel mit seiner Bedeutung für die Weltwirtschaft steht vor einer entscheidenden Weichenstellung.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Globalization, IMF, Presse | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 3. April 2017
Source: The Economist
Marine Le Pen’s nationalism meets the unrepentant globalism of Emmanuel
Two against the EU
WHAT did Marine Le Pen, the head of France’s National Front, expect to gain by visiting Moscow on March 24th? Her core supporters relished seeing her with Vladimir Putin, a strong woman standing next to a strongman. Ms Le Pen came away claiming that the world now belongs to nationalist populists such as Mr Putin, Donald Trump, India’s Narendra Modi and, implicitly, herself. Interestingly, the visit did not seem aimed at the usual goal of candidates who go abroad: reassuring voters that they can safely be trusted with foreign policy.
In French campaigns, gravitas-enhancing trips beyond the Hexagone (as mainland France is known) are especially popular with candidates who have little experience of governing. This year Ms Le Pen has been to America (where she was seen sipping coffee in Trump Tower in New York), Germany, Lebanon and Chad. Emmanuel Macron, the young centrist who is tied with her for first place in the polls, has been to Algeria, Britain, Germany, Jordan and Lebanon, in part to reach out to expat voters and donors. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economist, France, Globalization, Le Pen, Macron | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2017
Exactly to the point! (hfk)
Anne-Marie Slaughter, a former director of policy planning in the US State Department (2009-2011), is President and CEO of the think tank New America, Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, and the author of Unfinished Business: Women Men Work Family.
MAR 23, 2017 Project Syndicate
WASHINGTON, DC – The Dutch election was the first bright spot in a while for people in Europe and the United States who are deeply worried that the backlash against globalization will bring even more white “Judeo-Christian” nationalist parties to power. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte defeated the anti-Islam candidate Geert Wilders, who has called for closing Dutch borders, shutting mosques, and banning the Koran.
The standard way of describing political forces ranging from Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party in Hungary to Marine Le Pen’s National Front in France to Donald Trump’s supporters in the United States is “populist.” Populism means a politics of the people, juxtaposed against a politics of the elites. But in the US at least, Trump’s ideology – which has little to do with traditional Republican conservatism – frames the axis of division not as the many versus the few, but as nationalists versus globalists. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Globalization, Nationalism, Populism, Slaughter, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 14. März 2017
Wolfgang Schäuble has been Germany’s Federal Minister of Finance since 2009, helping to engineer the country’s remarkable post-crisis growth. He previously served as Minister of the Interior during the governments of Angela Merkel (2005-09) and Helmut Kohl (1989-91), and has been Chairman of Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic Union.
MAR 13, 2017 Project Syndicate
BERLIN – Globalization is getting increasingly bad press in the West nowadays. Populist movements allege that it does not benefit the average citizen very much, if at all. Instead, they tout protectionism and unilateralism. National policies, whether with respect to trade or financial regulation, are seen as the surest way to restore national greatness.
But this populist agenda is based on the deeply flawed premise that international cooperation and international trade are zero-sum games, producing only winners and losers. In fact, cooperation and trade can deliver benefits to all countries. For many years now, they have increased global security and certainly global prosperity, with hundreds of millions of people lifted out of poverty, both in the developed and the developing world. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: G20, Germany, Globalization, Inclusion, Project Syndicate, Schäuble | Leave a Comment »