Der deutsche Wirtschaftsweise Volker Wieland hat die Europäische Zentralbank vor einem zu langsamen Kurswechsel ihrer lockeren Geldpolitik gewarnt.
11.11.2018 um 10:14
„Die EZB läuft Gefahr, die geldpolitische Wende zu spät einzuleiten“, schrieb der deutsche Wirtschaftsweise Volker Wieland in einem Gastbeitrag für die „Welt am Sonntag“.
„Das heißt, die Inflation könnte schneller steigen, es könnten noch mehr riskante Kredite vergeben, unproduktive Investitionen getätigt und Ressourcen falsch eingesetzt werden.“ Risiken für die Finanzstabilität würden damit weiter zunehmen. Wieland forderte die EZB zu einer Abkehr von ihrer aktuellen Politik auf. „Die EZB könnte die Zinsen früher anheben. Außerdem müsste sie dringend erklären, wann und wie schnell sie ihre Bilanz reduziert. Sie sollte nicht auf so viel Staatsanleihen sitzen bleiben, sondern Bestände abbauen.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Mario Draghi says move will help protect them from potential shocks like Brexit
ECB President Mario Draghi said he expects the region’s five-year-old economic recovery to continue, but noted a number of risks including rising trade protectionism, weaknesses in emerging markets, and financial-market volatility.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi urged eurozone governments on Thursday to pay down their national debts to strengthen the currency bloc against potential economic shocks such as Brexit.
The warning comes amid a dispute between Italy’s government and the European Union over the nation’s planned budget deficit for next year, which the EU says is too high.
Speaking with lawmakers at Ireland’s Parliament, Mr. Draghi said he expects the region’s five-year-old economic recovery to continue, but noted a number of risks including rising trade protectionism, weaknesses in emerging markets, and financial-market volatility. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
20 Jahre Euro-Geschichte in 5 Minuten: großartig! (hfk)
Hans-Werner Sinn, Project Syndicate
Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics and Public Finance at the University of Munich, was President of the ifo Institute and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.
MÜNCHEN – Wenn man den Zeitpunkt der unwiderruflichen Festlegung der Wechselkurse im Mai 1998 als Startpunkt setzt, ist der Euro nun zwanzig Jahre alt. Das erste Jahrzehnt war Party in Südeuropa, im zweiten herrschte Katerstimmung und das dritte steht im Zeichen einer zunehmenden politischen Radikalisierung.
Die Party kam durch den billigen Kredit zustande, den die Kapitalmärkte Südeuropa unter dem Schutz des Euro zur Verfügung stellten. Plötzlich war Geld genug da, die Gehälter der Staatsbediensteten und die Renten zu erhöhen und außerdem mehr private Konsum- und Investitionsausgaben zu finanzieren.
Die Geldflut erzeugte inflationäre Wirtschaftsblasen, die am Ende des ersten Jahrzehnts platzen, als die Lehman-Krise auch Europa erfasste. Zurück blieben völlig überteuerte Torsos einst halbwegs wettbewerbsfähiger Volkswirtschaften, die in ernste Schwierigkeiten gerieten, weil sich die Kapitalmärkte einer Fortführung der Kreditfinanzierung verweigerten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
ECB isn’t expected to raise interest rates soon, but Mario Draghi might offer some clues on the bank’s next steps
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi .
The European Central Bank is shifting its attention to an old-fashioned policy tool: interest rates.
No sooner had the bank moved last month to phase out its giant bond-buying program than officials were discussing the likely timing of an interest-rate increase, the ECB’s first in more than seven years.
There is no rush. The ECB says it expects to wait at least a year before raising its key interest rate, currently minus 0.4%, underscoring a divergence with the Federal Reserve, which is expected to increase rate four times this year.
That reflects differences in economic growth: U.S. data on Friday is expected to show the world’s largest economy expanded more than 4% at an annualized pace during the second quarter. That is probably more than double the pace of the eurozone economy, whose second-quarter growth figures will be published on Tuesday. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has also served as Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and as Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.
The European Central Bank is now signaling its intention to end quantitative easing this year, indicating that it expects eurozone inflation to reach its target of „below, but close to, 2%.“ But as the ECB prepares for the next crisis, it would be well advised to revisit its longstanding price-stability objective.
ZURICH – The European Central Bank’s recent announcement that it will try to end asset purchases by this December means that it has confidence in its ability to achieve price stability. But those who decided that price stability should be the ECB’s single, overriding policy goal may have shot themselves in the foot, not least by denying policymakers much-needed flexibility.
The ECB defines price stability as inflation “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” That is a lower inflation rate than even the Bundesbank achieved during its celebrated pre-euro history, and it is a tighter target than virtually all other central banks pursue. For some, too much of a good thing is apparently wonderful. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.
Robert Skidelsky, Project Syndicate
Cryptocurrencies promise to realize Friedrich Hayek’s dream of a free market in money. But human societies have discovered no better way to keep the value of money roughly constant than by relying on central banks to exercise control over its issue.
LONDON – Slumps have always been boom times for monetary experiments, and the economic collapse of 2008-2009 was no different. Underlying this recurrence is the instinctive feeling that economic calamities must have monetary causes, and therefore monetary remedies. There is either too much money, which causes inflation, or too little, which leads to depression. So the aim of monetary reformers –among whom are always a large number of quacks and cranks – has been to “keep money in order” and prevent its gyrations from disturbing the “real” economy of production and trade.
Bloc’s economy appears to have slowed, coinciding with mounting tensions over trade and the strength of the euro
A general view of the European Central Bank under dark clouds in Frankfurt, Germany. Analysts have in recent weeks dialed back their forecasts for when the ECB might increase short-term interest rate.
FRANKFURT—Trade disputes and a stronger currency are threatening a hard-fought economic recovery in the 19-nation eurozone, potentially delaying a move by the European Central Bank to follow the Federal Reserve in increasing short-term interest rates.
Trade conflicts are a particular concern for the ECB because the region escaped the lingering effects of its debt crisis in part due to the strength of its export sector. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Mario Draghi warns of a peak in the growth cycle, while Jens Weidmann says Germany ‘is still booming’
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, left, Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann right
WASHINGTON—Two of the European Central Bank’s most influential officials offered differing interpretations of an apparent slowdown in the eurozone economy, highlighting the thorny decisions facing the bank as it prepares to draw a line under a decade of easy money just as growth softens.
Speaking at a gathering of finance ministers and central bankers here Friday, ECB President Mario Draghi warned that the eurozone’s growth cycle may have peaked, and suggested his bank would move only slowly to phase out its large monetary stimulus.
Across town, Jens Weidmann, president of Germany’s central bank, acknowledged signs of a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy in the first quarter. But Mr. Weidmann played down the change, suggesting he would continue to press the ECB to phase out easy money soon.
“There’s no reason to see a turning point in growth—Germany’s economy is still booming,” said Mr. Weidmann, who also sits on the ECB’s 25-member rate-setting committee. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Mario Draghi has less than two years to devise an exit strategy from today’s extraordinary monetary policy.
The economic crisis in Europe is finally fading, and Mario Draghi and his colleagues at the European Central Bank can breathe a sigh of relief. Their strategy of negative interest rates and asset purchases is paying dividends. But now the recovery brings fresh headaches for Mr. Draghi. It will soon be time to start the complex task of unwinding the extraordinary and unconventional monetary stimulus that has resuscitated the economy.
The immediate problem facing Mr. Draghi is how to phase out the ECB’s asset-purchase program,known as quantitative easing or QE, and then gradually return interest rates to more normal levels. And that is only the beginning.
The ECB’s balance sheet has doubled in size over the past three years. This is partly as a result of QE. But it is also reflects the €750 billion of cheap fixed-rate, long-term funding that the ECB has lent to banks. In some respects those loans, known as TLTROs, are an indirect form of QE, with the ECB lending the banks cash and the banks buying bonds. Either way the ECB is printing money and its balance sheet is increasing. That balance sheet will eventually have to shrink back to more normal levels. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Jens Weidmann has cautiously toned down his criticism of ECB policies in recent months as the economy has picked up
Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, said Tuesday that ending the ECB’s easy-money policies will “take quite some time.”
FRANKFURT—German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann gave the clearest sign yet that he hopes to succeed Mario Draghi as president of the European Central Bank next year, suggesting he won’t be held back from applying for the job by reservations over the bank’s bond-buying program.
A candidacy from Mr. Weidmann, a 49-year-old former adviser to Chancellor Angela Merkel, would likely be supported by Berlin but opposed by some governments in Southern Europe, who have chafed at the German’s criticism of their spending habits and opposition to key ECB stimulus programs.
Mr. Weidmann’s predecessor as president of Germany’s central bank, Axel Weber, was the favorite to take over the ECB’s top job until he resigned unexpectedly in early 2011, clearing the way for Mr. Draghi to take the helm. Mr. Weber said at the time that he was worried about having to represent views he didn’t agree with on important ECB policies, including its government-bond purchases. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
MÜNCHEN – Wenn man den Zeitpunkt der unwiderruflichen Festlegung der Wechselkurse im Mai 1998 als Startpunkt setzt, ist der Euro nun zwanzig Jahre alt. Das erste Jahrzehnt war Party in Südeuropa, im zweiten herrschte Katerstimmung und das dritte steht im Zeichen einer zunehmenden politischen Radikalisierung.