András Szigetvari19. Jänner 2019, 18:00 derstandard.at
Ein französischer Ökonom behauptet, dass sich führende Industrieländer weniger Sorgen wegen ihrer Schulden machen müssen als gedacht. Die provokante These erntet Beifall. Was bedeutet sie für Europa?
Es klingt wie eine utopische Geschichte aus einer fernen Zukunft. Ein Land lässt neue Schulen, Kindergärten und die besten Eisenbahnverbindungen bauen. Geld spielt dabei keine Rolle. Das Land verschuldet sich immer weiter. Doch das stört niemanden, weil der Schuldenberg unbegrenzt wachsen kann.Klingt unrealistisch? Mag sein. Doch einige der führenden Ökonomen diskutieren derzeit angeregt darüber, ob die eigene Zunft die Bedeutung staatlicher Schulden über die vergangenen Jahre und Jahrzehnte massiv überschätzt hat. Die Erkenntnis hätte politische Bedeutung. Schließlich ist in der Eurozone vorgeschrieben, dass sich alle Mitgliedsländer an Schuldenobergrenzen halten müssen, auch wenn derzeit die meisten Länder die Regeln brechen. Nulldefizite und Überschüsse gelten zudem in vielen Staaten als Errungenschaften. Aber was, wenn Schulden nichts Negatives sind?
Günstige Verzinsung
Der führende Kopf hinter der Debatte ist der ehemalige Chefökonom des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF), Olivier Blanchard. Der Franzose forscht am Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), einem eher konservativen Thinktank in Washington. Blanchards These, die er anhand der USA durchargumentiert: Seit gut 40 Jahren sinkt das weltweite Zinsniveau. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Across Europe, and particularly in the 18-member Eurozone, the economic news is sobering. It’s now clear that the credit crunch in emerging markets which has played out over most of this year, plus the slowdown in China, are having negative consequences in Europe. Yet, despite the ongoing trauma of Brexit, the UK is cruising along relatively smoothly – for now.
A number of critical events are about to coincide. Firstly, the ECB will cease printing money by means of quantitative easing (QE) in December. The principal measure of the money supply across Europe, M3, was growing by around 5 percent per year when the ECB was buying up to €80 billion of bonds a month in 2013. That rate slowed to 2.1 percent in Q3 this year and will prospectively fall to zero in Q1 2019.
QE was instigated by ECB President Mario Draghi who took over the reins on 1st November 2011. At the beginning of 2012, at the height of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, he pledged that the ECB would do everything it takes to save the Euro. First came a programme of soft loans to Eurozone banks (the so-called LRTO); then came a massive programme of government and then corporate bond-buying following the example set by America’s Federal Reserve in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Der deutsche Wirtschaftsweise Volker Wieland hat die Europäische Zentralbank vor einem zu langsamen Kurswechsel ihrer lockeren Geldpolitik gewarnt.
11.11.2018 um 10:14
„Die EZB läuft Gefahr, die geldpolitische Wende zu spät einzuleiten“, schrieb der deutsche Wirtschaftsweise Volker Wieland in einem Gastbeitrag für die „Welt am Sonntag“.
„Das heißt, die Inflation könnte schneller steigen, es könnten noch mehr riskante Kredite vergeben, unproduktive Investitionen getätigt und Ressourcen falsch eingesetzt werden.“ Risiken für die Finanzstabilität würden damit weiter zunehmen. Wieland forderte die EZB zu einer Abkehr von ihrer aktuellen Politik auf. „Die EZB könnte die Zinsen früher anheben. Außerdem müsste sie dringend erklären, wann und wie schnell sie ihre Bilanz reduziert. Sie sollte nicht auf so viel Staatsanleihen sitzen bleiben, sondern Bestände abbauen.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Mario Draghi says move will help protect them from potential shocks like Brexit
ECB President Mario Draghi said he expects the region’s five-year-old economic recovery to continue, but noted a number of risks including rising trade protectionism, weaknesses in emerging markets, and financial-market volatility.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi urged eurozone governments on Thursday to pay down their national debts to strengthen the currency bloc against potential economic shocks such as Brexit.
The warning comes amid a dispute between Italy’s government and the European Union over the nation’s planned budget deficit for next year, which the EU says is too high.
Speaking with lawmakers at Ireland’s Parliament, Mr. Draghi said he expects the region’s five-year-old economic recovery to continue, but noted a number of risks including rising trade protectionism, weaknesses in emerging markets, and financial-market volatility. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
20 Jahre Euro-Geschichte in 5 Minuten: großartig! (hfk)
Hans-Werner Sinn, Project Syndicate
Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics and Public Finance at the University of Munich, was President of the ifo Institute and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.
MÜNCHEN – Wenn man den Zeitpunkt der unwiderruflichen Festlegung der Wechselkurse im Mai 1998 als Startpunkt setzt, ist der Euro nun zwanzig Jahre alt. Das erste Jahrzehnt war Party in Südeuropa, im zweiten herrschte Katerstimmung und das dritte steht im Zeichen einer zunehmenden politischen Radikalisierung.
Die Party kam durch den billigen Kredit zustande, den die Kapitalmärkte Südeuropa unter dem Schutz des Euro zur Verfügung stellten. Plötzlich war Geld genug da, die Gehälter der Staatsbediensteten und die Renten zu erhöhen und außerdem mehr private Konsum- und Investitionsausgaben zu finanzieren.
Die Geldflut erzeugte inflationäre Wirtschaftsblasen, die am Ende des ersten Jahrzehnts platzen, als die Lehman-Krise auch Europa erfasste. Zurück blieben völlig überteuerte Torsos einst halbwegs wettbewerbsfähiger Volkswirtschaften, die in ernste Schwierigkeiten gerieten, weil sich die Kapitalmärkte einer Fortführung der Kreditfinanzierung verweigerten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
ECB isn’t expected to raise interest rates soon, but Mario Draghi might offer some clues on the bank’s next steps
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi .
The European Central Bank is shifting its attention to an old-fashioned policy tool: interest rates.
No sooner had the bank moved last month to phase out its giant bond-buying program than officials were discussing the likely timing of an interest-rate increase, the ECB’s first in more than seven years.
There is no rush. The ECB says it expects to wait at least a year before raising its key interest rate, currently minus 0.4%, underscoring a divergence with the Federal Reserve, which is expected to increase rate four times this year.
That reflects differences in economic growth: U.S. data on Friday is expected to show the world’s largest economy expanded more than 4% at an annualized pace during the second quarter. That is probably more than double the pace of the eurozone economy, whose second-quarter growth figures will be published on Tuesday. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Stefan Gerlach is Chief Economist at EFG Bank in Zurich and Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. He has also served as Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and as Secretary to the Committee on the Global Financial System at the BIS.
The European Central Bank is now signaling its intention to end quantitative easing this year, indicating that it expects eurozone inflation to reach its target of „below, but close to, 2%.“ But as the ECB prepares for the next crisis, it would be well advised to revisit its longstanding price-stability objective.
ZURICH – The European Central Bank’s recent announcement that it will try to end asset purchases by this December means that it has confidence in its ability to achieve price stability. But those who decided that price stability should be the ECB’s single, overriding policy goal may have shot themselves in the foot, not least by denying policymakers much-needed flexibility.
The ECB defines price stability as inflation “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.” That is a lower inflation rate than even the Bundesbank achieved during its celebrated pre-euro history, and it is a tighter target than virtually all other central banks pursue. For some, too much of a good thing is apparently wonderful. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, became the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Treasury affairs in the House of Lords, and was eventually forced out of the Conservative Party for his opposition to NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999.
Robert Skidelsky, Project Syndicate
Cryptocurrencies promise to realize Friedrich Hayek’s dream of a free market in money. But human societies have discovered no better way to keep the value of money roughly constant than by relying on central banks to exercise control over its issue.
LONDON – Slumps have always been boom times for monetary experiments, and the economic collapse of 2008-2009 was no different. Underlying this recurrence is the instinctive feeling that economic calamities must have monetary causes, and therefore monetary remedies. There is either too much money, which causes inflation, or too little, which leads to depression. So the aim of monetary reformers –among whom are always a large number of quacks and cranks – has been to “keep money in order” and prevent its gyrations from disturbing the “real” economy of production and trade.
Bloc’s economy appears to have slowed, coinciding with mounting tensions over trade and the strength of the euro
A general view of the European Central Bank under dark clouds in Frankfurt, Germany. Analysts have in recent weeks dialed back their forecasts for when the ECB might increase short-term interest rate.
FRANKFURT—Trade disputes and a stronger currency are threatening a hard-fought economic recovery in the 19-nation eurozone, potentially delaying a move by the European Central Bank to follow the Federal Reserve in increasing short-term interest rates.
Trade conflicts are a particular concern for the ECB because the region escaped the lingering effects of its debt crisis in part due to the strength of its export sector. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Mario Draghi warns of a peak in the growth cycle, while Jens Weidmann says Germany ‘is still booming’
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, left, Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann right
WASHINGTON—Two of the European Central Bank’s most influential officials offered differing interpretations of an apparent slowdown in the eurozone economy, highlighting the thorny decisions facing the bank as it prepares to draw a line under a decade of easy money just as growth softens.
Speaking at a gathering of finance ministers and central bankers here Friday, ECB President Mario Draghi warned that the eurozone’s growth cycle may have peaked, and suggested his bank would move only slowly to phase out its large monetary stimulus.
Across town, Jens Weidmann, president of Germany’s central bank, acknowledged signs of a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy in the first quarter. But Mr. Weidmann played down the change, suggesting he would continue to press the ECB to phase out easy money soon.
“There’s no reason to see a turning point in growth—Germany’s economy is still booming,” said Mr. Weidmann, who also sits on the ECB’s 25-member rate-setting committee. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
MÜNCHEN – Wenn man den Zeitpunkt der unwiderruflichen Festlegung der Wechselkurse im Mai 1998 als Startpunkt setzt, ist der Euro nun zwanzig Jahre alt. Das erste Jahrzehnt war Party in Südeuropa, im zweiten herrschte Katerstimmung und das dritte steht im Zeichen einer zunehmenden politischen Radikalisierung.