Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Debt’

Chef des deutschen Ifo-Instituts warnt vor Staatspleite Italiens

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2018

Das Land habe die Zeit für Reformen, die ihm die EZB verschafft habe, nicht genutzt, kritisiert Clemens Fuest. Die Euro-Länder müssten jetzt Vorkehrungen treffen.

Das deutsche Ifo-Institut warnt vor einer Staatspleite Italiens. Das Land habe die Zeit für Reformen, die ihm die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) durch den Kauf von Staatsanleihen verschafft habe, nicht genutzt, sagte der Präsident des Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituts, Clemens Fuest, dem „Handelsblatt“ laut Vorausbericht.

„Es droht ein weiterer schleichender Anstieg der Staatsverschuldung bei stagnierender Wirtschaft, der langfristig doch in eine Staatspleite führen könnte.“ Daher müssten die Euro-Länder jetzt Vorkehrungen treffen, damit eine solche Pleite auf Kosten der Gläubiger des italienischen Staates gehen würde und nicht auf Kosten der Steuerzahler im Rest der Eurozone.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Climbing Out of Debt

Posted by hkarner - 2. März 2018

A new study offers more evidence that cutting spending is less harmful to growth than raising taxes

Alberto Alesina, Carlo A. Favero, and Francesco Giavazzi, IMF Blog 1 Mar 2018

Almost a decade after the onset of the global financial crisis, national debt in advanced economies remains near its highest level since World War II, averaging 104 percent of GDP. In Japan, the ratio is 240 percent and in Greece almost 185 percent. In Italy and Portugal, debt exceeds 120 percent of GDP. Without measures either to cut spending or increase revenue, the situation will only get worse. As central banks abandon the extraordinary monetary measures they adopted to battle the crisis, interest rates will inevitably rise from historic lows. That means interest payments will eat up a growing share of government spending, leaving less money to deliver public services or take steps to ensure long-term economic growth, such as investing in infrastructure and education. Servicing debt will become a major burden.

What is the best way to reduce debt to sustainable levels? That question has taken on renewed importance since the global financial crisis of 2008, when government spending to stimulate growth and help the unemployed boosted budget deficits to postwar records. Some economists argue that cutting spending is the best medicine for restoring fiscal health. Others insist, on the contrary, that spending cuts are self-defeating, because they hurt economic growth. They prescribe even more government spending to reinvigorate a flagging economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Sinn: „Diese Politik reißt uns in einen neuen Schuldensumpf“

Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2018

Date: 25-02-2018
Source: Die Welt

Bekannt für klare Worte: Hans-Werner Sinn war von 1999 bis 2016 Präsident des Ifo-Instituts

Hans-Werner Sinn warnt die deutsche Politik vor Macrons Plänen für die Euro-Zone. Sie führten schnurstracks in eine neue Schuldenkrise.

Viel Lob hat er allerdings für den voraussichtlichen Finanzminister Olaf Scholz übrig.

Der Top-Ökonom Hans-Werner Sinn hat die kommende Bundesregierung davor gewarnt, dem französischen Staatspräsidenten Emmanuel Macron bei der Reform der Euro-Zone zu weit entgegenzukommen. „Die Bundesregierung macht einen großen Fehler, wenn sie auf Macrons Vorschläge eingeht“, sagte Sinn im Gespräch mit WELT AM SONNTAG. „Würden die Ideen von Macron umgesetzt, würde das die Euro-Zone kurzfristig stabilisieren, aber langfristig destabilisieren.“

Zunächst würde eine vertiefte Währungsunion zwar die Banken und andere Großanleger beruhigen, insbesondere die französischen Banken, die hohe Kredite an die Euro-Krisenländer gegeben haben. Langfristig aber würden die vorgeschlagenen Reformen die Grundlage für eine neue Schuldenkrise legen, warnte der ehemalige Präsident des Münchner Ifo-Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung gegenüber WELT AM SONNTAG. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Why America Is Going Broke

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2018

Date: 23-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Entitlements are driving deficits and debt. Absent reform, the problem will soon become a crisis.

Why America Is Going Broke

The federal deficit is big and getting bigger. President Trump’s budget estimates a deficit of nearly $900 billion for 2018 and nearly $1 trillion (with total spending of $4.4 trillion) for 2019. Its balance sheet reveals that the public debt will reach $15.7 trillion by October. This works out to $48,081.61 for every man, woman and child in the U.S. That doesn’t count unfunded liabilities, reported by the Social Security and Medicare Trustees, that are four times the current public debt.

How did the federal government’s finances degenerate this far? It didn’t happen overnight. For seven decades, high tax rates and a growing economy have produced record revenue, but not enough to keep pace with Congress’s voracious appetite for spending. Since the end of World War II, federal tax revenue has grown 15% faster than national income—while federal spending has grown 50% faster. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Breaking the euro area’s doom loop

Posted by hkarner - 3. Februar 2018

Date: 01-02-2018
Source: The Economist

A safe asset is devised for the euro zone

An ingenious proposal to end banks’ dangerous reliance on domestic sovereign bonds

THESE are bright days in the euro area. Preliminary figures say that the currency zone’s GDP grew by 2.5% last year, the fastest since 2007. But many of the faultlines in the zone’s financial system, as revealed by the financial crisis, remain. A proposal published on January 29th by a group reporting to the European Systemic Risk Board, a prudential supervisor, may mend one of the more troubling flaws.

Euro-area banks favour their home countries’ debt. A sample of 76 lenders examined by supervisors last year had exposures of €1.7trn ($1.9trn) to euro-area governments, of which €1.1trn was lent to their home states. That exceeded the banks’ common equity tier-1 capital, their cushion against losses, of €1trn. The fortunes of states and banks are thus bound in a “doom loop”. Suppose an economic shock raises the risk of a sovereign default. Banks’ balance-sheets start to crumble. They need propping up by the already wobbly state. And as they cut lending, the real economy weakens, worsening the fiscal woe. That, more or less, is what happened in the zone’s sovereign-debt crisis. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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How China Benefits from African Debt

Posted by hkarner - 30. Januar 2018

January 29, 2018, By George Friedman and Xander Snyder

The level of debt owed by African governments in countries such as Kenya, Uganda, Mozambique, and Tanzania has increased markedly since the 2008 financial crisis. Problematic though sub-Saharan African debt may be, debt levels vary country by country and therefore mitigate the possibility of a continent-wide crisis. Still, widespread default could create opportunities for outside powers that covet the region’s natural resources.

How It Happened

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, global interest rates were low, and money was cheap. Investors who sought greater returns turned to riskier investments, including African sovereign debt. Countries across the continent took on debt to fund infrastructure and other development projects. Countries such as Nigeria and Botswana still have debt burdens of under 50 percent of GDP—the level at which debt is generally considered high for developing countries. Other countries such as Mozambique and South Africa have debt burdens of more than 100 percent of GDP. Median public-sector debt in sub-Saharan Africa was 48 percent in 2016. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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What the West Gets Wrong About China’s Economy

Posted by hkarner - 24. Dezember 2017

Date: 22-12-2017
Source: Foreign Affairs By Yukon Huang

Debt, Trade, and Corruption

Few countries command as much attention as China. That is not surprising. Its remarkable economic rise is shaking the world’s geopolitical balance even as it raises questions about the universality of market-led capitalism and democratic norms. In turn, China has become a lightning rod for all manner of anxiety. The White House has blamed China for the United States’ huge trade deficits, for example, even though there is no direct causal relationship between such deficits and China’s surpluses. In fact, there are several things about China that U.S. analysts get wrong.

It isn’t hard to understand why. For the general public, there are difficulties in drawing appropriate conclusions about a country that is so big and regionally diverse in the distribution of its natural resources and commercial activities. And sentiments are almost always clouded by differences in ideology, values, and culture.

For scholars, meanwhile, conflicting views stem from the lack of an agreed framework for analyzing China’s economy. Decades ago, in the heyday of the Soviet Union, universities taught courses on centrally planned or “transitional” economies as an academic discipline. With the demise of the former Soviet Union, this body of analysis faded away. Today, China is studied as a developing economy, yet it is not one. The close links between its financial, fiscal, trade, and social welfare systems make it a different animal entirely. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Emerging markets: Countries rarely default on their debts

Posted by hkarner - 21. Dezember 2017

Date: 19-12-2017
Source: The Economist

Venezuela is the exception to the rule

VENEZUELA is an unusual country. It is home to the world’s largest reserves of oil and its highest rate of inflation. It is known for its unusual number of beauty queens and its frightening rate of murders. Its bitterest foe, America, is also its biggest customer, buying a third of its exports.

In defaulting on its sovereign bonds last month (it failed to pay interest on two dollar-denominated bonds by the end of a grace period on November 13th), Venezuela is also increasingly unusual. The number of governments in default to private creditors fell last year to its lowest level since 1977, according to the Bank of Canada’s database. Of the 131 sovereigns tracked by S&P Global, a rating agency, Mozambique is the only other country in default, having missed payments on its Eurobond (and failed to make good on guaranteed loans to two state-owned enterprises). Walter Wriston, a former chairman of Citibank, earned ridicule for once declaring that “countries don’t go bust”. But they don’t much anymore. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Ernst Wolff über Fassadendemokratie und das globale Finanzsystem

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2017

Dank an J.O.!

Transskript des Vortrags zur Veröffentlichung seines aktuellen Buchs FINANZ TSUNAMI  vom 08.11.2017 im Studierendenclub QuasiMono. Eine Veranstaltung von attac Cottbus gemeinschaftlich mit der Friedenskoordination Cottbus. Praktisch gleichlautend gehalten am 30.11.2017 im Aktionsradius Wien.

Der französische Dramatiker Eugène Ionesco hat einmal gesagt  Nur wer sich an das Absurde gewöhnt hat, findet sich in unserer Zeit zurecht. Ich glaube es gibt wenige Sätze die unsere Epoche treffender charakterisieren als dieser. Wir leben in einer Welt die mehr Reichtum produziert als jemals zuvor – aber dieser Reichtum ist absurd verteilt. Der Hilfsorganisation Oxfam zufolge, besaßen 2014 85 Einzelpersonen genau so viel wie der ärmere Teil der Welt; 2015 waren es noch 62 und 2016 noch ganze 8 Personen! Das heißt, selbst wenn man die Genauigkeit dieser Zahlen bezweifeln mag, muss man feststellen, dass wir es im vergangenen Jahr bei der Zunahme der sozialen Ungleichheit auf der Welt mit einer exponentiellen Beschleunigung zu tun haben.

Und nicht nur das – auch die Kluft zwischen armen und reichen Staaten nimmt immer schneller zu, mit der Folge, dass in Zeiten der Überproduktion immer mehr Menschen ihrer Heimat entfliehen, um Armut und Hunger zu entkommen. Absurd ist vor allem was dagegen getan wird. Es werden nicht etwa internationale Programme aufgelegt zum Abbau der sozialen Ungleichheit, sondern es werden Mauern errichtet, es werden Zäune gezogen, es werden Grenzen gesichert und Schießbefehle erteilt.

Die nächste Absurdität betrifft den globalen Schuldenberg. Wir haben es zurzeit mit dem höchsten und schnellst wachsenden Schuldenstand  in der gesamten Geschichte der Menschheit zu tun. Aber diese Schulden werden nicht etwa gemacht, um in die Zukunft der Menschheit zu investieren, sondern um ins internationale Finanzcasino zu wandern, oder, was noch schlimmer ist, sie werden eingesetzt um noch effizientere, noch schrecklichere Waffen zu produzieren. Das Ergebnis: Neben der sozialen Ungleichheit ist der Krieg die zweite Hauptursache für die größten Flüchtlingsströme seit siebzig Jahren. Das wiederum hat uns in die absurde Situation gebracht, dass trotz der Erfahrungen die die Menschheit mit den Schrecken und Grauen von zwei Weltkriegen gemacht hat, ein dritter Weltkrieg möglich erscheint. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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Is Another Debt Crisis On the Way?

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2017

Kemal Derviş, former Minister of Economic Affairs of Turkey and former Administrator for the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), is Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The world does not seem to face much risk in the short term. But in the medium to long term, rising income inequality, exacerbated by the mismatch between skills and jobs in the digital age, will become a significant impediment to growth, unless policymakers implement a wide array of difficult structural reforms.

WASHINGTON, DC – Economic growth is accelerating across most of the world. Yet the world’s total gross debt-to-GDP ratio has reached nearly 250%, up from 210% before the global economic crisis nearly a decade ago, despite post-crisis efforts by regulators in many important economies to drive the banking sector to deleverage. This has raised doubts about the sustainability of the recovery, with some arguing that a rise in interest rates could trigger another global crisis. But how likely is that to happen?

To answer this question, one must recall that debt is both a liability and an asset. In a closed economy – and we don’t owe anything to non-Earthlings – overall debt and the corresponding assets necessarily cancel each other out. So what really matters is the composition of debts and liabilities – or, to put it simply, who owes what to whom. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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