Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Debt’

Japan’s Successful Economic Model

Posted by hkarner - 21. September 2018

Adair Turner, a former chairman of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services Authority and former member of the UK’s Financial Policy Committee, is Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. His latest book is Between Debt and the Devil.

Japan’s GDP growth lags most other developed economies, and will likely continue to do so as the population slowly declines. But what matters for human welfare is GDP per capita, and on this front, the country excels.

TOKYO – Nearly everyone says that Japan’s economic model has imploded. Since 1991, growth has averaged just 0.9% versus 4.5% over the previous two decades. Slow growth, combined with large fiscal deficits and near zero inflation, has driven government debt from 50% of GDP to 236% of GDP.

Abenomics, the cluster of reforms initiated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe when he came to power six years ago, promised to get inflation up to 2%. But five years of zero interest rates and massive quantitative easing have failed to achieve this. A fertility rate of 1.4 and near-zero immigration mean that Japan’s workforce could shrink by 28% over the next 50 years, making health care for the elderly unaffordable and dramatically increasing the fiscal deficit, which is already running at 4% of GDP. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Who Really Creates Value in an Economy?

Posted by hkarner - 12. September 2018

Mariana Mazzucato, Professor in the Economics of Innovation and Public Value and Director of the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose at University College London, is the author of The Value of Everything: Making and Taking in the Global Economy.

Ten years after the global economic crisis, profits have recovered, but investment remains weak. Ultimately, the reason is that economic policy continues to be informed by neoliberal ideology and its academic cousin, “public choice” theory, rather than by historical experience.

LONDON – After the 2008 global financial crisis, a consensus emerged that the public sector had a responsibility to intervene to bail out systemically important banks and stimulate economic growth. But that consensus proved short-lived, and soon the public sector’s economic interventions came to be viewed as the main cause of the crisis, and thus needed to be reversed. This turned out to be a grave mistake.

In Europe, in particular, governments were lambasted for their high debts, even though private debt, not public borrowing, caused the collapse. Many were instructed to introduce austerity, rather than to stimulate growth with counter-cyclical policies. Meanwhile, the state was expected to pursue financial-sector reforms, which, together with a revival of investment and industry, were supposed to restore competitiveness. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A decade after the global financial crisis: What has (and hasn’t) changed?

Posted by hkarner - 31. August 2018

An essential analysis by the goreous MGI ! (hfk)
A decade after the global financial crisis: What has (and hasn’t) changed?
It all started with debt.

In the early 2000s, US real estate seemed irresistible, and a heady run-up in prices led consumers, banks, and investors alike to load up on debt. Exotic financial instruments designed to diffuse the risks instead magnified and obscured them as they attracted investors from around the globe. Cracks appeared in 2007 when US home prices began to decline, eventually causing the collapse of two large hedge funds loaded up with subprime mortgage securities. Yet as the summer of 2008 waned, few imagined that Lehman Brothers was about to go under—let alone that it would set off a global liquidity crisis. The damage ultimately set off the first global recession since World War II and planted the seeds of a sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone. Millions of households lost their jobs, their homes, and their savings.

How secure is the global financial system, a decade after the crisis?
Great strides have been made since 2008 to prevent a recurrence of the financial crisis and recession that followed. Yet there is more debt than ever in the global financial system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Economic Costs of Erdoğan

Posted by hkarner - 27. August 2018

Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy, Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science, and, most recently, Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy.

For more than a decade, financial markets gave Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the benefit of the doubt and supplied the Turkish economy with easy credit. Such debt-fueled growth almost always ends badly, and now it has.

DURHAM/CAMBRIDGE – Turkey’s political model has long lost its luster, but a growing diplomatic crisis with the equally erratic administration of US President Donald Trump has now pushed the country’s economy into a full-fledged currency crisis. The Turkish lira has lost nearly half of its value over the last 12 months. And, because Turkish banks and firms have borrowed heavily in foreign currency, the lira’s freefall threatens to bring much of the private sector down with it.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, having won the first election since Turkey’s formal change from a parliamentary to a presidential system in June, now governs the country autocratically. He relies on government ministers selected more for their loyalty (and family ties to him) than for their competence. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Der Verfall der Lira birgt auch für Europa und Asien ein Ansteckungsrisiko

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2018

Die Lira-Krise trifft nicht nur Schwellenländer – und ist längst zur Schuldenkrise geworden. Sie kann schnell auch auf etablierte Märkte überspringen.

13.08.2018 – 16:42 Uhr Handelsblatt.com

Die Währungskrise hat sich zu einer Schuldenkrise ausgewachsen. Sie kommt zur Unzeit

Es mutet wie ein Akt der Verzweiflung an: Erst fordert der türkische Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan seine Landsleute auf, angesichts des Kursverfalls der Lira Euro und Dollar sowie Gold in Landeswährung zu tauschen. Dann warnt er heimische Unternehmen, Geld in ausländischer Währung abzuheben.

Die Nervosität ist trotz aller Durchhalteparolen zum Greifen. Bricht die türkische Wirtschaft zusammen, birgt das erhebliche Risiken einer Ansteckung in Asien und Europa.

Wie schlecht es um die Türkei steht, zeigen die Kreditausfallversicherungen für fünfjährige Anleihen der Türkei. Sie haben den höchsten Stand seit der Finanzkrise 2008 erreicht. Die Währungskrise hat sich zu einer Schuldenkrise ausgewachsen, die schnell auf andere Schwellenländer überspringen kann. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Türkei ist nur der Anfang: Neue Finanzkrise hat begonnen

Posted by hkarner - 13. August 2018

Dank an H.G.

Mit zu vielen riskanten Krediten hat sich die Finanzwelt in die nächste Krise gestürzt. Neue Banken-Rettungen sind nur eine Frage der Zeit.

Der dramatische Kurssturz der türkischen Lira versetzte am vergangenen Freitag die Finanzmärkte in Aufruhr. In den Hintergrund rückte die Tatsache, dass die Talfahrt bereits 2013 begonnen hat und schon seit Herbst 2016 schneller wurde. Als im Laufe des Freitag US-Präsident Donald Trump plötzlich die Zölle auf die zwei wichtigsten Exportprodukte der Türkei, auf Stahl und Aluminium, verdoppelte, geriet die Entwicklung  vollends außer Kontrolle. Die Lira war Freitag abends mit 6,42 TRY für einen Dollar und 6,93 für einen Euro nur mehr halb so viel wert wie vor einigen Jahren. Bis zum Herbst 2016 hatte sich der Kurs noch bei etwa 3,5 TRY bewegt.

Der Kurssturz der Lira ist die  Folge konkreter Probleme

Da Donald Trump derzeit vielfach für Aufregung sorgt, entstand am Freitag der Eindruck, der US-Präsident hätte die Krise ausgelöst. Der türkische Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdoğan erklärte auch prompt, die USA würden die Türkei bedrohen, kündigte an, sich nach Moskau zu orientieren und erklärte pathetisch, der Westen habe den Dollar, die Türkei aber habe Gott. Tatsächlich hat die Türkei konkrete wirtschaftliche Probleme wie sehr viele andere so genannte „emerging markets“ auch. Dass die Politik in der Türkei keinen Beitrag leistet, um das Vertrauen in das Land zu stärken, darf nicht unerwähnt bleiben: Massenverhaftungen von vermeintlich Verdächtigen und Massenkündigungen von Beamten, die beide zum Teil wieder zurückgenommen werden, sowie Prozesse gegen unabhängige Journalisten lassen am Rechtsstaat zweifeln. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Endgame Strategizing

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juli 2018

By John Mauldin

July 27, 2018

Take a Deep Breath
Too Much Protection
Behind the Door
Cracks in the Wall
The Best Strategy for the Great Reset

We are all on a debt-filled train that is eventually going to crash, and if you are on it, it won’t stop to let you off first. Jumping at the last minute is not a good option, either. So what do you do? You take action now, while you have time.

Last week I gave you some rules to follow with your investments. They were necessarily general because I’m writing to a broad audience. Today, I will get more specific by discussing some possible strategies for high-net-worth “accredited investors.”

However, you should read this important information even if you aren’t wealthy. You might get there someday and it will help prepare you for it. “Someday” could be sooner than you think, too. The Great Reset will rearrange much of the world’s wealth and some people will see their financial condition change quickly, either for worse or better. There will be some enormously positive opportunities.

And as we will see, many strategies that are currently available only to accredited investors are slowly showing up in lower-cost, publicly accessible ETFs and other instruments around the world. There is truly a fintech-driven revolution going on in the financial industry. For we who make our living in that world, the changes seem to intensify almost daily. As I will discuss at the end of this letter, these changes are forcing me to update my own business model. So opportunities not available to you today may very well be available next quarter or next year. You and your advisors need to stay in the loop. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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More of Africa Finds Itself in China’s Debt

Posted by hkarner - 27. Juli 2018

Date: 26-07-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Beijing’s widening economic and military footprint on continent raises concerns; President Xi Jinping secures host of deals on weeklong visit

NAIROBI, Kenya—Chinese President Xi Jinping has signed a slate of investment deals during a weeklong tour of Africa, feeding into concerns in the West and on the continent over ballooning levels of indebtedness to Beijing and its expanding political footprint.

Already Africa’s biggest single-country trading partner, China has become its biggest creditor, too. It holds at least 14% of the continent’s sovereign debt, having lent more than $100 billion to governments and state enterprises since 2000, according to the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

Mr. Xi started his trip on Saturday in Senegal, adding the West African country to the Belt and Road Initiative that will see China invest more than $100 billion in trade infrastructure in Asia, Europe and Africa. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How to Dodge the Debt Train

Posted by hkarner - 23. Juli 2018

By John Mauldin

July 20, 2018

Get Active
Use Multiple Tools
Sell Liquidity
Get Radical on Taxes

Standing in front of a speeding train is rarely a good idea, but most investors are doing it right now. They survive only because the debt train is still way down the tracks. It is nonetheless coming, and you will want to move before then. But which way?

While I think we have a few years, I see little chance we can escape some kind of painful reckoning which I believe will culminate towards the middle to the end of 2020s. The opportunities to change course are behind us now. Yes, there are things many countries can do to put things back on track, but most are not politically possible in this fractured world. It will require a crisis to muster the political will to fix this.Over the last two months I made the case (summarized here) for a coming worldwide debt default/restructuring/financial engineering. Call it whatever you want but it won’t be good.

While we can’t do anything about that—and the people who can do something are choosing not to—we can take steps to protect ourselves and maybe even profit from this approaching train crash. Many of you have asked for specific advice. I’m somewhat limited in what I can say, both for legal reasons and because we have readers in many different situations. Not everything is suitable for everyone. But I can give you some general ideas and rules to follow. Today, we will start with the smallest investors and then move on up.

Some of my Mauldin Economics colleagues also have ideas, which I hope you read in the special reports we’ve featured in the last few days. More on that below. But now, let’s consider how to dodge the train. I have four rules to follow, all of which would be good practice even if we weren’t in front of a speeding train.

Rule #1: Get Active

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China Shifts Gears to Support Economic Growth Amid Trade Conflict With U.S.

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juli 2018

Date: 17-07-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Quarterly GDP expanded 6.7%, still within Beijing leaders’ comfort zone

Beijing is encouraging commercial banks to ramp up lending for subway and other railway projects.

BEIJING—Fall-offs in factory output and investment in buildings, machinery and such are weighing on China’s growth, complicating Beijing’s task in managing the world’s second-largest economy amid a trade conflict with the U.S.

The Chinese economy clocked a 6.7% expansion rate in the second quarter from a year earlier, down slightly from 6.8% in the January-March period, the statistics bureau reported Monday. While that rate is within Chinese leaders’ comfort zone, some economists said more troubling are the drop-offs in business activity and domestic demand.

Industrial output rose 6% in June from a year earlier, markedly down from a pace of 6.8% in May. Meanwhile, investment in fixed assets grew 6% in the first half of the year—a notch down from the 6.1% rate in the first five months and a level not seen since the late 1990s.

The slack is partly due to a government campaign against debt that has made businesses skittish about spending. While Beijing is already shifting gears to support growth—and fend off any ill-effects from the escalating trade fight with the U.S.—some economists expect the slowdown to worsen in coming months before the lingering effects of the credit-tightening dissipate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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