Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Debt’

Hohe Schulden, strittige Parallelwährung: Knackpunkte für die neue Regierung in Rom

Posted by hkarner - 21. Mai 2018

András Szigetvari, 21. Mai 2018, 18:43 derstandard.at

Italien gilt aktuell als das große Problemkind der Eurozone. Die Vorhaben der künftigen Regierung in Rom sorgen zusehends für Nervosität

Nein, die Eurokrise ist nicht zurück. Doch die wahrscheinliche künftige Koalitionsregierung in Italien bestehend aus der Fünf-Sterne-Bewegung und der rechtsnationalistischen Lega Nord sorgt unter Investoren für Nervosität. Die Risikoaufschläge für italienische Staatsanleihen haben am Montag zugelegt, Italien muss seinen Gläubigern spürbar höhere Zinsen bieten. Ökonomen und Bankanalysten widmen sich derweil wieder intensiv Italiens Wirtschaftsproblemen. Der Tenor ist dabei einhellig: Das Koalitionsabkommen wird die Verwerfungen verschlimmern. Vor allem die zusätzlichen Ausgaben der Regierung, etwa für Pensionen, werden kritisiert. Italien geht „auf Konfrontationskurs“ mit der Eurozone, schreiben die Ökonomen der Commerzbank. Der Londoner Finanzdienstleister Capital Economics warnt vor einem fatalen Anstieg der Staatsschulden des Landes. Steht es so schlimm? Die wirtschaftlichen Herausforderungen Italiens und die wichtigen Fragen für die kommenden Wochen erklärt in vier Punkten:

1. Altlasten belasten

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s Upstart Parties Set Possible Collision Course With Europe

Posted by hkarner - 19. Mai 2018

Date: 18-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The 5 Star Movement and the League seal a coalition agreement that mixes euroskeptic economic policies and billions in tax cuts and spending

Two anti-establishment parties poised to take power in Italy have finalized a coalition agreement that challenges the constraints of the euro, setting up a possible fight with European leaders who only recently steered the common currency through a deep crisis.

The upstart 5 Star Movement and the hard-right League sealed an agreement Friday that seeks to reboot one of Europe’s most troubled economies with a mix of euroskeptic economic policies and tens of billions in tax cuts and stimulus spending.

The would-be coalition partners’ challenge to the European Union on economic policy shows how the bitter legacy of the debt crisis, especially in Southern Europe, continues to fuel antiestablishment politics, in combination with voter anxiety about immigration. A potential confrontation between Italy and the European authorities could revive concerns about the future of the eurozone.

The two parties now must agree on who to seat as the prime minister. Matteo Salvini, the firebrand leader of the League, and Luigi Di Maio, the 31-year-old head of 5 Star, plan to meet with Italian President Sergio Mattarella on Monday to inform him they are ready to form a government. A new government could be in place by the end of next week. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italien will Schuldennachlass über 250 Milliarden Euro

Posted by hkarner - 16. Mai 2018

Einem Bericht der Online-Zeitung „Huffington Post Italia“ zufolge wollen die möglichen Koalitionspartner die EZB um den Erlass von Schulden in Höhe von 250 Mrd. Euro bitten.

EZB soll den Italienern 250 Mrd. Euro Schulden nachlassen –

Ein Entwurf für ein Koalitionspapier der rechten Lega und der populistischen Fünf-Sterne-Bewegung, laut dem sich die neue italienische Regierung um einen Austritt Italiens aus der Eurozone bemühen wolle, hat am Mittwoch für Aufregung gesorgt. Die Mailänder Börse reagierte mit einem Kurseinbruch von 1,7 Prozent. Die beiden Parteien dementierten jedoch Pläne für einen Euro-Rückzug Italiens.

Laut dem Papier, das von der „Huffington Post Italia“ veröffentlicht wurde, wollen die Lega und die Fünf-Sterne-Bewegung die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) darum bitten, Italien Schulden in der Höhe von 250 Milliarden Euro zu erlassen. Auch seien Neuverhandlungen des italienischen Beitrags zum EU-Budget, ein Ende der Russland-Sanktionen und die Rücknahme einer Pensionsreform von 2011 vorgesehen. Beide Gruppierungen erklärten, bei dem Entwurf handle es sich um eine alte Version, die inzwischen umfassend geändert worden sei. Insbesondere werde der Euro nicht infrage gestellt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Debt Shackles Return

Posted by hkarner - 16. Mai 2018

Michael Heise is Chief Economist of Allianz SE and the author of Emerging From the Euro Debt Crisis: Making the Single Currency Work.

The only sustainable debt burden is one that can be managed even during cyclical downturns. Yet governments continue to repeat the same mistakes, treating debt as a boon for long-term growth, rather than what it is: a source of massive long-term risks.

MUNICH – Global growth is accelerating. But before we break out the champagne, we should acknowledge the long-term risks to sustained expansion posed by rising private and public debt.

Market analysts view the uptick in private lending in most emerging and some developed economies as a sign of higher demand and a precursor of faster growth. But, while this is true in the short run, the relentless rise of overall debt remains among the most serious problems burdening the global economy.

Despite years of deleveraging after the 2008 global financial crisis, debt remains very high – and yet we have now returned to an expansionary credit cycle. According to the Bank for International Settlements, total non-financial private and public debt amounts to almost 245% of global GDP, having risen from 210% before the financial crisis and around 190% at the end of 2001. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Where will the next crisis occur?

Posted by hkarner - 3. Mai 2018

Date: 02-05-2018
Source: The Economist: Buttonwood

Corporate debt could be the culprit

INTEREST rates are heading higher and that is likely to put financial markets under strain. Investors and regulators would both dearly love to know where the next crisis will come from. What is the most likely culprit?

Financial crises tend to involve one or more of these three ingredients: excessive borrowing, concentrated bets, and a mismatch between assets and liabilities. The crisis of 2008 was so serious because it involved all three—big bets on structured products linked to the housing market, and bank-balance sheets that were both overstretched and dependent on short-term funding. The Asian crisis of the late 1990s was the result of companies borrowing too much in dollars when their revenues were in local currency. The dotcom bubble had less serious consequences than either of these because the concentrated bets were in equities; debt did not play a significant part. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mounting Debt Threatens Sustainable Development Goals

Posted by hkarner - 28. April 2018

By Chris Lane and Elliott Harris, IMF Blog

April 27, 2018

Some developing countries are falling behind when it comes to incomes .

In 2015, 193 countries adopted the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as an overarching policy roadmap through 2030. These goals are predicated on the idea that for a sustainable future, economic growth must go hand-in-hand with social inclusion and protection of the environment.

Our respective institutions, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), fully support these goals. From the UN perspective, they represent a down payment on a more peaceful, prosperous, and cooperative world, especially in increasingly perilous times. For the IMF, they help underpin economic stability and sustainable and inclusive economic growth.

In 2017, most types of development financing flows increased, helped by an upturn in the world economy, increased investment, and supportive financial market conditions. Yet less than three years after adoption, the implementation of the SDGs is running into a major hurdle—rising public debt in some developing countries. This is the sobering message of a new report on financing for development issued by the UN, in collaboration with the IMF and almost 60 other agencies. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Upheaval Italy Needs

Posted by hkarner - 27. April 2018

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While Italy remains without a new government, it would be foolish to believe that a country where anti-system parties won 55% of the popular vote will continue to behave as if nothing had happened. But political upheavals sometime provide a unique opportunity for addressing seemingly intractable problems.
FLORENCE – Two months after the Italian general election on March 4, amid continuing uncertainty about what kind of government will emerge, a strange complacency seems to have set in. Yet it would be foolish to believe that a country where anti-system parties won 55% of the popular vote will continue to behave as if nothing had happened. The supposed “barbarians” are not at the gate anymore. They are inside. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Das Luftschloss Staatsschuldensenkung

Posted by egloetzl - 20. April 2018

Kommentar der anderen | Erhard Glötzl, derstandard.at

  19. April 2018, 15:42
Jeder Finanzminister spricht vom Abbau der Staatsschulden, keiner vermag dies nachhaltig zu tun. Damit die Quadratur des Kreises gelingt, müssten Guthaben kontrolliert beschränkt werden

Die Boston Consulting Group hat schon 2011 in ihrer Studie „Back to Mesopotamia“ festgestellt, dass die Schulden in allen volkswirtschaftlichen Sektoren (Staat, Unternehmen, private Haushalte) zu hoch sind. Daher ist es richtig, dass insbesondere auch die Staatsschulden gesenkt werden sollen. Und daher versprechen auch alle Finanzminister der Welt immer wieder diesen Abbau der Staatsschulden. Doch keiner schafft das nachhaltig und längerfristig. Warum ist das überall so? Sind alle Finanzminister unfähig oder gar so korrupt?

Nein, die Antwort ist eine ganz andere. Um die Staatsschulden abzubauen, genügt es nicht, in den Budgetplänen die Ausgaben zu kürzen. Denn auf die Staatsschulden hat nicht nur das Verhalten des Finanzministers einen Einfluss, sondern auch das Verhalten der Unternehmen, der privaten Haushalte, des Auslands und insbesondere auch das der Gläubiger.

Gleich hohe Summen Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bringing Down High Debt

Posted by hkarner - 19. April 2018

By Vitor Gaspar and Laura Jaramillo, IMF Blog

April 18, 2018

High debt makes governments’ financing vulnerable to sudden changes in market sentiment 

Global debt hit a new record high of $164 trillion in 2016, the equivalent of 225 percent of global GDP. Both private and public debt have surged over the past decade. High debt makes government’s financing vulnerable to sudden changes in market sentiment. It also limits a government’s ability to provide support to the economy in the event of a downturn or a financial crisis.

Countries should use the window of opportunity afforded by the economic upswing to strengthen the state of their fiscal affairs. The April 2018 Fiscal Monitor explores how countries can reduce government deficits and debt in a growth-friendly way.

High government debt is a concern

Of the $164 trillion, 63 percent is nonfinancial private sector debt, and 37 percent is public sector debt. Advanced economies are responsible for most global debt. Nevertheless, in the last ten years, emerging market economies have been responsible for most of the increase. China alone contributed 43 percent to the increase in global debt since 2007. In contrast, the contribution from low income developing countries is barely noticeable. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Boom Reawakens the Ghost of Crisis Past: Debt

Posted by hkarner - 11. April 2018

Date: 10-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

A mounting pile of debt across the eurozone, after almost a decade of accommodative monetary policy, is worrying regulators

LISBON—Filipe Garcia e Costa had never borrowed from a bank when ultralow interest rates tempted him to take out a €185,000 ($226,000) loan to buy an apartment here.

The caveat: The 32-year-old real-estate manager won’t finish repaying the debt—worth seven times his annual salary—until he is 75.

Mr. Garcia e Costa isn’t alone in ramping up debt. Across the eurozone, economic optimism, ultralow interest rates and fierce competition among banks have helped push private-sector lending to its highest level since the financial crisis. That would be good news if it wasn’t for one big problem: the region’s already high debt.

Over the past decade, the debt held at eurozone firms and households rose around 12 percentage points to 160% of gross domestic product, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. In the same 10-year period, U.S. private-sector debt fell around 14 percentage points, to 152% of GDP.

The borrowing binge is seen as one adverse effect of almost a decade of easy money from the European Central Bank, which slashed interest rates below zero and bought bonds to reignite an economy reeling from a crisis that was triggered in the first place by over-indebtedness.

As the ECB moves to unwind those policies, the debt they contributed to could hurt overleveraged companies and consumers, hurting the region’s now booming economy. Rising interest rates make it harder for people and companies to borrow and serve existing debts, crimping their ability to spend and invest, while pushing some into bankruptcy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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