Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Fed’

The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits

Posted by hkarner - 30. Oktober 2019

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. When that happens, policymakers will almost certainly pursue some form of central-bank-financed stimulus, regardless of whether the situation calls for it.

NEW YORK – A cloud of gloom hovered over the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting this month. With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. Among other things, investors and economic policymakers a renewed escalation in the Sino-American trade and technology war. A military conflict between the United States and Iran would be felt globally. The same could be true of “hard” Brexit by the United Kingdom or a collision between the IMF and Argentina’s incoming Peronist government. 

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ABörsen-Crash von 1929: Kann sich die Finanzkatastrophe wiederholen?

Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2019

Dank an H.G. 
SN, 18/10/2019, Hannes Breustedt
Vor 90 Jahren leitete der „Schwarze Donnerstag“ die große Weltwirtschaftskrise ein. Die Kombination aus Spekulationsblasen, Konjunkturflaute und Handelskonflikten endete in einem ökonomischen Totalabsturz. Einige Parallelen zur Gegenwart sind unübersehbar.
Broker am „Schwarzen Freitag“ 1929 in der New Yorker Börse: Innerhalb weniger Tage verloren Millionen Amerikaner ihr Vermögen, die Panik griff weltweit auf die Börsenplätze über. SN/AP Broker am „Schwarzen Freitag“ 1929 in der New Yorker Börse: Innerhalb weniger Tage verloren Millionen Amerikaner ihr Vermögen, die Panik griff weltweit auf die Börsenplätze über. Der Börsen-Crash von 1929 beendete den Wirtschaftsboom der Goldenen Zwanziger im vergangenen Jahrhundert abrupt. Der auf das Finanzbeben folgende Konjunktureinbruch ging als Great Depression in die Geschichtsbücher ein und gilt bis heute als schwerste und längste Weltwirtschaftskrise der Neuzeit. Vor allem der Schwarze Donnerstag am 24. Oktober bleibt als eines der dunkelsten Kapitel der Finanzhistorie in Erinnerung – in Europa aufgrund des Zeitunterschieds auch Schwarzer Freitag genannt. 90 Jahre später sind die Bewertungen an der Börse erneut bedenklich hoch. Und erneut halten Handelskonflikte und Konjunktursorgen Anleger in Atem – besteht das Risiko, dass sich ein Desaster wie damals wiederholt?

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Why Markets Are Rising Despite a Trade War, Brexit and Impeachment Threats

Posted by hkarner - 20. Oktober 2019

Date: 19-10-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Many investors are watching the Fed while not trading geopolitical events

Some investors say they aren’t trading geopolitical events such as Brexit and the impeachment inquiry in the U.S.

The world seems more tumultuous than it has in years. Congress is weighing impeachment, the U.K. is on the verge of a momentous vote regarding its role in Europe, and the U.S. and China are still mired in a trade war.

Yet the S&P 500 is within about 2% of its all-time high. What’s going on with Wall Street?

For many money managers, the answer has a lot to do with the Federal Reserve. The central bank has already lowered interest rates twice this year and is widely expected to do so at least once more in 2019 to help support a slowing economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Böse Erinnerung: US-Banken haben ein Cash-Problem

Posted by hkarner - 3. Oktober 2019

02.10.2019, Kurier.at

Die Zentralbank Fed muss US-Banken mit Milliardensummen versorgen, weil ihnen Mittel für das Tagesgeschäft fehlen

Es dürfte einer der merkwürdigsten Vorgänge in der jüngeren Finanzgeschichte sein: Obwohl amerikanische Banken noch immer in Zentralbankgeld schwimmen, scheint ihnen die Abwicklung alltäglicher Geschäfte Probleme zu bereiten. Das geht so weit, dass einer der wichtigsten Finanzmärkte der Welt, der US-Interbankenmarkt, nicht mehr ordnungsgemäß funktioniert.

Das Phänomen weckt schlimme Erinnerungen an die weltweite Finanzkrise vor gut einer Dekade. Der Interbanken- oder Geldmarkt ist eine Einrichtung, die der breiten Öffentlichkeit in aller Regel verborgen bleibt. Kein Wunder, handelt es sich doch um einen sehr speziellen Markt, auf dem sich Banken gegenseitig Finanzmittel für ihr tägliches Geschäft besorgen. Das funktioniert normalerweise absolut reibungslos.

Wie vor Ausbruch der Finanzkrise

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Economists and central bankers unite in grumbling about Donald Trump

Posted by hkarner - 30. August 2019

Date: 27-08-2019
Source: The Economist Free exchange

But in some ways, the president brought them together at their yearly gathering

AS THE ANNUAL meeting of central bankers and economists at Jackson Hole, a mountain resort in Wyoming, began on August 23, two participants made a bet. Would President Donald Trump tweet about the opening remarks of Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, within 45 minutes of their publication? In the event, it took the president 57 minutes. That night the victor enjoyed his winnings—a glass of whiskey—in the bar.

Mr Trump’s words made the conference theme, “challenges for monetary policy”, uncomfortably timely. He called Mr Powell anenemy and promised to ramp up trade tensions with China further. Later that day he announced increases in tariff rates on over $500bn of Chinese imports. But even as stockmarkets reeled, the conference continued serenely. Indeed, Mr Trump even brought the participants together.

Most obviously, they were united in grumbling about the effects of his trade policy on the global economy. Philip Lowe, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said that business uncertainty was turning political shocks into economic ones. Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, said that trade tensions had raised risk premiums, tightening financial conditions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How not to weaken central banks’ independence

Posted by hkarner - 13. April 2019

Date: 11-04-2019
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

Why Stephen Moore and Herman Cain are poor picks for the Fed

There are more than a few echoes of the Nixon era in the presidency of Donald Trump. Monetary reverberations are among them. Facing re-election in 1972, Richard Nixon felt he needed a strong economy at his back, and made a habit of haranguing Arthur Burns, the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time. Burns recounted the meetings in his diaries: “The president looked wild; talked like a desperate man; fulminated with hatred against the press; took some of us to task…” Historians reckon Burns was too accommodating of Nixon’s demands, and so helped launch the inflation of the 1970s. Mr Trump is now waging his own assault on the Fed’s independence. He has repeatedly complained about the central bank’s decisions and urged it to take a more doveish stance.

More strikingly Mr Trump, who has already chosen three of the five sitting members of the Fed’s board of governors, has named Stephen Moore and Herman Cain to fill the remaining two vacancies. In contrast to candidates who have come before, both are political activists. But the parallel with the 1970s is less apt than it seems. There are different ways to politicise monetary policy, and Mr Trump’s is particularly poisonous. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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And we are still stuck with Trump and that is far worse!

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2019

Date: 03-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Subject: Trump to Fed Chairman Powell: ‘I Guess I’m Stuck With You’

The president blasted the central bank and its leader at three meetings in the past week alone

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Capitol Hill in Washington in February.

WASHINGTON—President Trump is blaming the Federal Reserve for holding back the economy and stock market despite the central bank’s recent decision to do two things he wanted—halt rate increases and stop shrinking its asset portfolio.

The president blasted the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell at three meetings in the past week alone, telling Republican senators, supporters and staffers that if it wasn’t for the central bank’s past rate increases, economic output and stocks would be higher and the U.S. budget deficit would be rising less. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Federal Reserve: Ohne permanente Interventionen kommt der Crash

Posted by hkarner - 30. März 2019

Dank an H.G.!

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 21.03.19 09:44 Uhr

Die Federal Reserve bricht die Normalisierung ihrer Geldpolitik ab. Das marode Finanzsystem kann offenbar keine dauerhaft steigenden Zinsen mehr vertragen. Für die Weltwirtschaft sind schwere Zeiten angebrochen.

Angesichts der unsicheren Konjunkturaussichten will die US-Notenbank Fed dieses Jahr die Füße stillhalten und die Ära der schrittweisen Zinserhöhungen beenden. Die Währungshüter um Fed-Chef Jerome Powell planen nach neun Erhöhungen binnen drei Jahren für 2019 eine Pause, wie sie am Mittwoch signalisierten. Erst 2020 könnte noch eine Anhebung kommen.

Der Leitzins ist nun in der Spanne von 2,25 bis 2,5 Prozent in etwa auf einem Niveau, das die Wirtschaft laut Powell weder anschiebt noch bremst. „Jetzt ist eine großartige Zeit, um geduldig zu sein“, betonte er. Aus den Konjunkturdaten lasse sich kein Grund ableiten, Zinsen zu erhöhen oder zu senken.

Die Entscheidung der Zentralbank hat massive Auswirkungen. Praktisch gesteht sie damit ein, dass die Weltwirtschaft vor schwierigen Zeiten steht und eine Rezession nicht mehr ausgeschlossen ist. Es ist außerdem ein Eingeständnis, dass das auf Schuldgeld basierende Finanzsystem nicht mehr ohne dauerhafte Eingriffe durch die Zentralbanken bestehen kann. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Understanding the Fed’s Dovish Turn

Posted by hkarner - 19. März 2019

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Over the past few years, the US Federal Reserve has been ahead of other major central banks in normalizing monetary policy. But now the Fed has abruptly put further interest-rate hikes on hold, owing to key changes in macroeconomic conditions and the political environment.

NEW YORK – The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met in December 2018, it hiked the Fed’s policy rate to 2.25-2.5%, and signaled that it would raise the benchmark rate another three times, to 3%-3.25%, before stopping. It also signaled that it would continue to unwind its balance sheet of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities indefinitely, by up to $50 billion per month.

But just six weeks later, at the FOMC meeting in late January, the Fed indicated that it would pause its rate hikes for the foreseeable future and suspend its balance-sheet unwinding sometime this year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2019

By John Mauldin, March 1, 2019

Infested with Crawdads
Not Applauding
Steadily More Dovish
#3 Mandate

In an ideal world, we wouldn’t have to read the Federal Reserve’s rabbit entrails to discern the economy. But Since the Fed exists in the real world, and its decisions matter, we have to pay attention.

Just so new and perhaps even old readers know my views on the Fed: I believe we need it to handle the practical matters of the banking system plus interact with other international central banks (we live in a complicated world) and, in the midst of crisis, act as a lender of last resort and liquidity provider. I agree with Walter Bagehot’s (pronounced badget) very important pronouncement (often called „Bagehot’s Dictum“) that “in times of financial crisis central banks should lend freely to solvent depository institutions, yet only against sound collateral and at interest rates high enough to dissuade those borrowers that are not genuinely in need.” That rule or dictum remains wise. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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