Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Fed’

Renovating the Fed

Posted by hkarner - 3. Dezember 2017

– Stan Druckenmiller (hat tip Steve Blumenthal)

The Federal Reserve will soon have a new chair, assuming the Senate confirms Jerome Powell as Janet Yellen’s successor. Yellen’s departure will reduce the nominally seven-member Board of Governors to only three. That may or may not be a good thing, depending on some other events.

In fact, in talking with some of my Fed-watching friends, it appears the world’s most important central bank is about to experience some potentially profound changes – not just in personnel but more importantly in the kind of people who lead it. Those changes could, in turn, have some serious economic impacts; so it’s worth taking a deeper look.

Nonmusical Chairs Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Mini-Zinsen gefährden Finanzsystem

Posted by hkarner - 29. November 2017

Sie haben die lockere Geldpolitik zu verantworten. Nun aber warnen die Notenbanken selbst vor ihr. Die Leute seien sorglos, Banken im Fall eines Schocks zu wenig abgesichert.

Wien. Manch Ökonom warnt schon lange davor. Nun werfen auch die Notenbanken das Alarmlicht an. Am deutlichsten die Deutsche Bundesbank, die gestern die Sorglosigkeit angesichts der boomenden Konjunktur geißelte. Es bestehe die Gefahr, dass Risiken für die Finanzstabilität unterschätzt würden, schreibt sie in ihrem „Finanzstabilitätsbericht 2017“, der in Frankfurt vorgestellt wurde. Das Problem: Die Niedrigzinspolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), die bei der Straffung der geldpolitischen Zügel säumiger ist als die US-Notenbank Fed.

Zwar wachse die deutsche Wirtschaft bereits das achte Jahr in Folge und Haushalte wie Firmen könnten sich günstig finanzieren, so die Bundesbank: Aber die Bewertungen vieler Kapitalanlagen seien sehr hoch. Auch nehme der Anteil niedrig verzinster Anlagen in den Bilanzen von Banken und Versicherern stetig zu. Sorge bereitet der Bundesbank zudem die sich immer schneller drehende Preisspirale bei Immobilien. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Has Trump Captured the Fed?

Posted by hkarner - 5. November 2017

Joseph E. Stiglitz, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 and the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979, is University Professor at Columbia University, Co-Chair of the High-Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress at the OECD, and Chief Economist of the Roosevelt Institute. A former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank and chair of the US president’s Council of Economic Advisers under Bill Clinton, in 2000 he founded the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, a think tank on international development based at Columbia University. His most recent book is The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe.

US President Donald Trump has an uncanny ability to embrace economic policies, such as the Republicans‘ proposed tax cuts, that benefit him personally. In choosing the relatively moderate Jerome Powell to chair the Federal Reserve, he realized that an extremist would raise interest rates – any real-estate developer’s worst nightmare.

NEW YORK – One of the important powers of any US president is to appoint members and heads of the many agencies that are responsible for implementing the country’s laws and regulations and, in many cases, governing the economy. Perhaps no institution is more important in that regard than the Federal Reserve.

In exercising that power, Donald Trump has broken a long-standing pattern, going back almost a half-century, whereby the president reappoints (on a non-partisan basis) the incumbent Fed chair, if he or she has been seen to be doing a good job. Probably no chair has done a better job, in a particularly difficult moment, than Janet Yellen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Donald Trump’s Federal Reserve

Posted by hkarner - 4. November 2017

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Jerome Powell, US President Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Janet Yellen as Fed Chair, will face some extraordinary challenges at the outset of his five-year term. But the greatest challenge of all will be to stay out of Trump’s shadow and uphold the Fed’s independence.

CAMBRIDGE – With the appointment of Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the United States Federal Reserve Board, Donald Trump has made perhaps the most important single decision of his presidency. It is a sane and sober choice that heralds short-term continuity in Fed interest-rate policy, and perhaps a simpler and cleaner approach to regulatory policy.

Although Powell is not a PhD economist like current Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, he has used his years as an “ordinary” governor at the Fed to gain a deep knowledge of the key issues he will face. But make no mistake: the institution Powell will now head rules the global financial system. All other central bankers, finance ministers, and even presidents run a distant second. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Geldpolitik: Ein neuer Steuermann bei tückisch ruhiger See

Posted by hkarner - 2. November 2017

Jerome Powell dürfte als Trumps Wahl für den Fed-Chefposten die Zinspolitik von Janet Yellen fortsetzen, aber die Zügel für Banken leicht lockern. Das wirtschaftliche Umfeld ist dafür viel heikler und unsicherer, als es erscheint.

Wien/Washington. Donald Trump macht aus allem eine Show. Aber am Ende des inszenierten Schaulaufens um die neue Spitze der Notenbank Fed traf der US-Präsident offenbar eine erstaunlich ausgewogene, unspektakuläre Entscheidung: Jerome Powell wäre ein Pragmatiker, Zentrist, Kompromisskandidat – und vor allem ein Garant dafür, dass die wichtigste Zentralbank der Welt ihre Politik der behutsamen Zinserhöhungen und des vorsichtigen Ausstiegs aus den Anleihekäufen fortsetzt. Der Favorit galt am Donnerstag schon als fix gesetzt; offiziell verkündet hat Trump seine Entscheidung erst nach Redaktionsschluss dieser Ausgabe. Der Senat muss Trumps Wahl noch absegnen; das Mandat der aktuellen Fed-Chefin Janet Yellen läuft Anfang Februar aus.

Überspitzt lässt sich sagen: Der größte Unterschied zu ihrem erwarteten Nachfolger wäre, dass er nicht Janet Yellen heißt. Seit 2012 gehört Powell dem Direktorium der Fed an; keine einzige Entscheidung hat er seitdem nicht mitgetragen oder auch nur öffentlich infrage gestellt. Dennoch wollte Trump einen Akzent setzen (worauf die meisten früheren Herren im Weißen Haus verzichteten: Seit 1979 wurde noch jedem Fed-Chef eine zweite Amtszeit gewährt). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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US-Starökonom: „Die Deutschen brauchen keine Angst zu haben“

Posted by hkarner - 18. Oktober 2017

Interview András Szigetvari18. Oktober 2017, 07:00 derstandard.at

Trotz wachsender Wirtschaft müsse die EZB ihre ultralockere Geldpolitik fortsetzen, sagt Barry Eichengreen

STANDARD: Der Internationale Währungsfonds warnt vor einem Crash am Finanzmarkt. Investoren gehen zu viele Risiken ein, weil sich mit sicheren Investitionen keine Zinsen verdienen lassen. Zentralbanken haben zu dieser Entwicklung mit ihrer lockeren Geldpolitik beigetragen. Ein Fehler?

Eichengreen: Die Zentralbanken haben das getan, was sie tun mussten, um die Wirtschaft zu stabilisieren und die Inflation anzufachen. Wie bei jeder medizinischen Behandlung gibt es Nebenwirkungen. Aber nur deshalb, weil es auf den Finanzmärkten zu Ausschweifungen kommt, dürfen Notenbanken ihre Kernaufgabe nicht aus den Augen verlieren, und diese lautet nun einmal für Preisstabilität zu sorgen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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$2 Trillion Later, Does the Fed Even Know if Quantitative Easing Worked?

Posted by hkarner - 23. September 2017

Date: 22-09-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

As the central bank sets out to reverse quantitative easing, there are at least three reasons not to worry too much about its impact on markets—and one good reason to be concerned

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen  after the central bank indicated it remained on track to raise short-term rates later this year and said it would begin shrinking its portfolio of bonds next month.

After spending $2 trillion on government bonds in an effort to stimulate the economy, the U.S. Federal Reserve can hardly admit that it doesn’t know how, or even if, it worked.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday came as close as she’s ever likely to get to accepting that quantitative easing is still poorly understood even by the experts. Explaining why the central bank prefers to set short-term rates rather than buy or sell stuff, she said it was because “we believe we understand pretty well what the effects [of rate changes] are on the economy,” and so do investors. Left unsaid: No one’s really sure how, or if, QE works.

This matters enormously to investors as the Fed sets out on quantitative tightening. It’s starting small, allowing a maximum of $10 billion of bonds a month to mature without the money being reinvested. But in a year, that will be up to $50 billion a month—more than the Fed bought each month during the first phase of QE3 in 2013. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Donald Trump should reappoint Janet Yellen

Posted by hkarner - 16. September 2017

Date: 15-09-2017
Source: The Economist

Gaps at the Fed are becoming a real concern

ONE of the many fears about President Donald Trump was that he would pack the Federal Reserve with loyalists. That concern has been replaced by another: the central bank’s top echelons are unpacked with anyone. On September 6th Stanley Fischer, a seasoned policymaker and crisis-fighter, announced that for personal reasons he was retiring early as vice-chairman. That means a fourth vacancy has opened up on the Fed’s board; as a consequence, four of the 12 seats on the Fed’s interest-rate-setting committee are also up for grabs. That number could rise to five in February, when Janet Yellen’s term as Fed chair is due to end.

Mr Trump has been slow to make senior appointments of any kind. But an underpowered Fed is a particular concern. Its policies help determine everything from the health of the American economy to the price of credit in emerging markets. The best way for the president to start dealing with the backlog is to reappoint Ms Yellen head of the Fed. That might clash with his instincts. Mr Trump values loyalty above competence. Ms Yellen, first appointed by Barack Obama, is a Democrat who has pushed back against proposals from the Treasury that would weaken financial regulation. But a second term for her would provide clarity about the Fed’s future direction and independence, and make the other posts easier to fill. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Mystery of the Missing Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 14. September 2017

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Since the summer of 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion, yet inflation has yet to pick up in the advanced economies. The question that inflation-targeting central banks must confront is straightforward: why?

NEW YORK – Since the summer of 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion, with the growth rate accelerating gradually. What has not picked up, at least in the advanced economies, is inflation. The question is why.

In the United States, Europe, Japan, and other developed economies, the recent growth acceleration has been driven by an increase in aggregate demand, a result of continued expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, as well as higher business and consumer confidence. That confidence has been driven by a decline in financial and economic risk, together with the containment of geopolitical risks, which, as a result, have so far had little impact on economies and markets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Central Bankers Can’t Savor Their Stimulus Success

Posted by hkarner - 29. August 2017

Date: 28-08-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Worry over issues in Washington draws focus from timing to withdraw measures put in place years ago

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo.—Central bankers have been looking forward for years to a moment when the world economy is growing steadily again, allowing them to unwind extraordinary monetary stimulus from global markets.

They are now in such a moment, but at the Federal Reserve’s annual retreat here over the weekend they found their attention turned to other challenges, including a possible leadership transition at the Fed next year and the risk of a government shutdown or debt-ceiling crisis in Washington next month. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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