Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Fed’

US-Starökonom: „Die Deutschen brauchen keine Angst zu haben“

Posted by hkarner - 18. Oktober 2017

Interview András Szigetvari18. Oktober 2017, 07:00 derstandard.at

Trotz wachsender Wirtschaft müsse die EZB ihre ultralockere Geldpolitik fortsetzen, sagt Barry Eichengreen

STANDARD: Der Internationale Währungsfonds warnt vor einem Crash am Finanzmarkt. Investoren gehen zu viele Risiken ein, weil sich mit sicheren Investitionen keine Zinsen verdienen lassen. Zentralbanken haben zu dieser Entwicklung mit ihrer lockeren Geldpolitik beigetragen. Ein Fehler?

Eichengreen: Die Zentralbanken haben das getan, was sie tun mussten, um die Wirtschaft zu stabilisieren und die Inflation anzufachen. Wie bei jeder medizinischen Behandlung gibt es Nebenwirkungen. Aber nur deshalb, weil es auf den Finanzmärkten zu Ausschweifungen kommt, dürfen Notenbanken ihre Kernaufgabe nicht aus den Augen verlieren, und diese lautet nun einmal für Preisstabilität zu sorgen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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$2 Trillion Later, Does the Fed Even Know if Quantitative Easing Worked?

Posted by hkarner - 23. September 2017

Date: 22-09-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

As the central bank sets out to reverse quantitative easing, there are at least three reasons not to worry too much about its impact on markets—and one good reason to be concerned

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen  after the central bank indicated it remained on track to raise short-term rates later this year and said it would begin shrinking its portfolio of bonds next month.

After spending $2 trillion on government bonds in an effort to stimulate the economy, the U.S. Federal Reserve can hardly admit that it doesn’t know how, or even if, it worked.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday came as close as she’s ever likely to get to accepting that quantitative easing is still poorly understood even by the experts. Explaining why the central bank prefers to set short-term rates rather than buy or sell stuff, she said it was because “we believe we understand pretty well what the effects [of rate changes] are on the economy,” and so do investors. Left unsaid: No one’s really sure how, or if, QE works.

This matters enormously to investors as the Fed sets out on quantitative tightening. It’s starting small, allowing a maximum of $10 billion of bonds a month to mature without the money being reinvested. But in a year, that will be up to $50 billion a month—more than the Fed bought each month during the first phase of QE3 in 2013. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Donald Trump should reappoint Janet Yellen

Posted by hkarner - 16. September 2017

Date: 15-09-2017
Source: The Economist

Gaps at the Fed are becoming a real concern

ONE of the many fears about President Donald Trump was that he would pack the Federal Reserve with loyalists. That concern has been replaced by another: the central bank’s top echelons are unpacked with anyone. On September 6th Stanley Fischer, a seasoned policymaker and crisis-fighter, announced that for personal reasons he was retiring early as vice-chairman. That means a fourth vacancy has opened up on the Fed’s board; as a consequence, four of the 12 seats on the Fed’s interest-rate-setting committee are also up for grabs. That number could rise to five in February, when Janet Yellen’s term as Fed chair is due to end.

Mr Trump has been slow to make senior appointments of any kind. But an underpowered Fed is a particular concern. Its policies help determine everything from the health of the American economy to the price of credit in emerging markets. The best way for the president to start dealing with the backlog is to reappoint Ms Yellen head of the Fed. That might clash with his instincts. Mr Trump values loyalty above competence. Ms Yellen, first appointed by Barack Obama, is a Democrat who has pushed back against proposals from the Treasury that would weaken financial regulation. But a second term for her would provide clarity about the Fed’s future direction and independence, and make the other posts easier to fill. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Mystery of the Missing Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 14. September 2017

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Since the summer of 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion, yet inflation has yet to pick up in the advanced economies. The question that inflation-targeting central banks must confront is straightforward: why?

NEW YORK – Since the summer of 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion, with the growth rate accelerating gradually. What has not picked up, at least in the advanced economies, is inflation. The question is why.

In the United States, Europe, Japan, and other developed economies, the recent growth acceleration has been driven by an increase in aggregate demand, a result of continued expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, as well as higher business and consumer confidence. That confidence has been driven by a decline in financial and economic risk, together with the containment of geopolitical risks, which, as a result, have so far had little impact on economies and markets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Central Bankers Can’t Savor Their Stimulus Success

Posted by hkarner - 29. August 2017

Date: 28-08-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Worry over issues in Washington draws focus from timing to withdraw measures put in place years ago

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo.—Central bankers have been looking forward for years to a moment when the world economy is growing steadily again, allowing them to unwind extraordinary monetary stimulus from global markets.

They are now in such a moment, but at the Federal Reserve’s annual retreat here over the weekend they found their attention turned to other challenges, including a possible leadership transition at the Fed next year and the risk of a government shutdown or debt-ceiling crisis in Washington next month. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Who Wants to Deregulate Finance?

Posted by hkarner - 25. August 2017

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A significant Trump nominee for the Fed

Posted by hkarner - 16. Juli 2017

Date: 13-07-2017
Source: The Economist
Subject: Wall Street: A new approach to financial regulation

DONALD TRUMP promised to unshackle America’s financial firms from mounds of stultifying regulation and the grip of bureaucrats with little practical experience of capitalism. One way to put that pledge into practice is to appoint officials with business backgrounds and deregulatory agendas. This element of the Trump strategy was on show this week, with a presidential nomination for a critical job at the Federal Reserve and the first public address by the new head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), another financial regulator.

Buried in the voluminous pages of the Dodd-Frank act, an Obama-era law passed in response to the financial crisis, was the creation of a new supervisory job at the Fed. Thus far, this powerful post has been informally delegated to an existing Fed board member, first Daniel Tarullo and, since his departure, Jerome Powell. That is set to change. Randal Quarles was formally nominated for the job—technically a vice-chairmanship with a brief covering financial supervision—on July 11th.

Mr Quarles has held a number of jobs—as a lawyer for financial institutions at Davis Polk, a leading law firm; as a senior official in the Treasury; working on bank investments at Carlyle, a private-equity firm; and most recently, as head of Cynosure, a firm investing on behalf of wealthy families. If approved by the Senate, Mr Quarles will have his new office in a building named after Marriner Eccles, chairman of the Fed from 1934 to 1948, and a relative of his wife, Hope.

Mr Quarles is described by former associates as being in favour of policies administered through transparent and direct rules. If so, this would mark a shift from the Obama administration’s approach to finance. It oversaw a profusion of complex, and sometimes conflicting, directives; supervisors kept banks on a tight leash through stress tests that lacked clear criteria. That created vast uncertainty for financial institutions. It also gave regulators great discretionary power (to say nothing of lucrative job opportunities helping financial institutions to navigate their way through the murk). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump dürfte ehemaligem Goldman-Sachs-Chef die Fed-Leitung übergeben

Posted by hkarner - 12. Juli 2017

12. Juli 2017, 11:08 derstandard.at

Die Amtszeit der US-Notenbankchefin Janet Yellen endet im Februar. Trump-Berater Gary Cohn könnte den Job bekommen

Washington – Eine zweite Amtsperiode von US-Notenbankchefin Janet Yellen wird einem Medienbericht zufolge immer unwahrscheinlicher. Das Magazin „Politico“ berichtete am Dienstag, Präsident Donald Trumps Wirtschaftsberater Gary Cohn habe beste Aussichten, Yellens Nachfolger zu werden. Das Magazin berief sich auf mehrere mit dem Vorgang vertraute Personen aus Präsidialamt, Finanzministerium und Kongress. „Gary wird es, wenn er es will, und ich glaube, dass er es will“, wurde ein namentlich nicht genannter Republikaner zitiert. Eine Sprecherin des Präsidialamts sagte, Cohn konzentriere sich auf seine Aufgaben als Wirtschaftsberater. Ähnlich hatte sich Cohn Anfang Juni selbst geäußert. Eine Sprecherin der Notenbank (Fed) lehnte eine Stellungnahme zu dem Bericht ab.

Fondsmanager erwartete keine Änderungen Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The New Abnormal in Monetary Policy

Posted by hkarner - 11. Juli 2017

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Prepare for Turbulence

Posted by hkarner - 9. Juli 2017

July 9, 2017

– Alice Rivlin

“The central bank needs to be able to make policy without short-term political concerns.”

– Ben Bernanke

“… from the standpoint of the overall economy, my bottom line is we’re watching it closely but it appears to be contained.

– Ben Bernanke, repeatedly, in 2007

“Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know, probably that would be going too far, but I do think we’re much safer, and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes, and I don’t believe it will be.”

– Janet Yellen, June 27, 2017 Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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