Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Europe’

Europe’s Wage-Price Puzzle

Posted by hkarner - 12. November 2019

By Richard Varghese

Does higher wage growth fuel inflation? In Europe, that has historically been the case. But the link between wage growth and inflation has weakened in recent years amid low inflation expectations, robust corporate profitability, and strong competitive pressures.

The price of labor—namely wages—is rising at a robust pace, especially in the European Union’s newer member states. Yet, surprisingly, inflation has barely risen. We set out to shed light on this puzzle in Chapter 2 of the Regional Economic Outlook: Europe.

It is likely that robust wage growth will not meaningfully spur inflation in the near future.

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Von der Leyens erste Grundsatzrede: „Europa muss die Sprache der Macht lernen“

Posted by hkarner - 10. November 2019

Date: 09-11-2019
Source: SPIEGEL

Europas Partner müssen sich nach Ansicht der gewählten EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen darauf einstellen, dass sich das Bündnis künftig härter, machtbewusster zeigen wird. Als Beispiel nannte sie China.

Ursula von der Leyen wird am 1.Dezember neue EU-Kommissionspräsidentin

Europa muss nach Auffassung der künftigen EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursula von der Leyen energischer in der Welt auftreten.

„Europa muss auch die Sprache der Macht lernen“, sagte sie in Berlin in einer Europa-Rede vor der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. „Das heißt zum einen, eigene Muskeln aufbauen, wo wir uns lange auf andere stützen konnten – zum Beispiel in der Sicherheitspolitik“, sagte die frühere deutsche Verteidigungsministerin. „Zum anderen die vorhandene Kraft gezielter einsetzen, wo es um europäische Interessen geht.“

„Wir können die Bedingungen beeinflussen, zu denen wir Geschäfte machen“

Als Beispiel nannte von der Leyen die Handelspolitik. China sei zwar ein wichtiger Handelspartner für Europa. Aber umgekehrt sei die EU Pekings größter Handelspartner. „Wir können die Bedingungen beeinflussen, zu denen wir Geschäfte machen“, sagte von der Leyen. Dies geschehe auch bereits. So freue man sich über jedes ausländische Unternehmen, das an Ausschreibungen in der EU teilnehme, sei es für den Bau von Autobahnen oder Stromtrassen. „Aber wir werden künftig stärker darauf achten, dass sich diese Unternehmen auch an unsere Standards halten, zum Beispiel was Arbeitsbedingungen und Umweltschutzvorschriften angeht.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die Zunahme des Nationalismus nach dem Mauerfall

Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2019

George Soros

George Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management and the Open Society Foundations. A pioneer of the hedge-fund industry, he is the author of many books, including The Alchemy of Finance, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means, and The Tragedy of the European Union: Disintegration or Revival? His most recent book is In Defense of Open Society (Public Affairs, 2019).

BERLIN – Der Fall der Berliner Mauer am Abend des 8. November 1989 beschleunigte den Zusammenbruch des Kommunismus in Europa dramatisch und plötzlich. Das Ende der Reisebeschränkungen zwischen DDR und Bundesrepublik versetzte der abgeschotteten Gesellschaft der Sowjetunion den Todesstoß. Zugleich markierte es einen Höhepunkt beim Aufstieg offener Gesellschaften. 

Ich engagierte mit zu diesem Zeitpunkt bereits ein Jahrzehnt für das, was ich als meine politische Philanthropie bezeichne. Ich entwickelte mich zu einem Fürsprecher des Konzepts der offenen Gesellschaft, das mir von Karl Popper, meinem Mentor an der London School of Economics, vermittelt worden war. Von Popper lernte ich, dass perfektes Wissen unerreichbar ist und dass totalitäre Ideologien, die für sich in Anspruch nehmen, im Besitz der ultimativen Wahrheit zu sein, sich nur mittels Repressionen durchsetzen können. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Siren Song of Strategic Autonomy

Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

A recent report by the European Commission’s in-house think tank has called for Europe to aim for more “strategic autonomy.” But what may seem like an innocuous goal could easily take an economic-nationalist turn, with serious implications for world trade and the global economy.

BRUSSELS – For over a year, US President Donald Trump’s protectionist war against China – and his broader use of import tariffs to advance geopolitical objectives – has been fueling anxiety about the future of world trade. But tariffs are only the tip of the iceberg of economic nationalism. If the world doesn’t navigate carefully, hidden hazards could sink the global trading system.

The United States has not found any followers in its aggressive use of tariffs. In developing countries, there is little pressure to implement similar measures, because so many firms manufacture globally, and even those that do not depend on global supply chains. And in developed economies, major sectors that struggled to cope with import competition in the past – such as the clothing and steel industries – have by now mostly adjusted, and no longer play an important role. This explains why US business leaders largely opposed Trump’s tariffs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The future of the EU

Posted by hkarner - 8. November 2019

Date: 07-11-2019
Source: The Economist

Emmanuel Macron warns Europe: NATO is brain-dead

America is turning its back on the European project.
Time to wake up, the French president tells The Economist

EMMANUEL MACRON, the French president, has warned European countries that they can no longer rely on America to defend NATO allies. “What we are currently experiencing is the brain death of NATO,” Mr Macron declares in a blunt interview with The Economist. Europe stands on “the edge of a precipice”, he says, and needs to start thinking of itself strategically as a geopolitical power; otherwise we will “no longer be in control of our destiny.”

During the hour-long interview, conducted in his gilt-decorated office at the Elysée Palace in Paris on October 21st, the president argues that it is high time for Europe to “wake up”. He was asked whether he believed in the effectiveness of Article Five, the idea that if one NATO member is attacked all would come to its aid, which many analysts think underpins the alliance’s deterrent effect. “I don’t know,” he replies, “but what will Article Five mean tomorrow?” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Assessing Emmanuel Macron’s apocalyptic vision

Posted by hkarner - 8. November 2019

Date: 07-11-2019
Source: The Economist

Europe is “on the edge of a precipice”, says France’s president. Is he right?

Today’s europe owes its existence to the United States. America fought two world wars on European soil; American diplomacy was midwife to what became the European Union; American arms protected western Europe from Soviet invasion; and American statesmen oversaw German unification. Now, in a dramatic plea to all Europeans, France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, has warned that America is cutting Europe loose. The old continent is “on the edge of a precipice”, he warns. Unless it wakes up, “we will no longer be in control of our destiny.”

In his Elysée Palace office, Mr Macron spoke to The Economist in apocalyptic terms. nato, the transatlantic alliance, is suffering from “brain-death”, he says; Europe needs to develop a military force of its own. The eu thinks of itself as just a market, but it needs to act as a political bloc, with policies on technology, data and climate change to match. Past French presidents have argued that Europe cannot rely on America, and should look to France instead. Mr Macron is not just rehashing this view. He believes that America and Europe have shared interests and has worked tirelessly to keep good relations with President Donald Trump. But he argues that for the first time America has a president who “does not share our idea of the European project”. And even if Mr Trump is not re-elected, historical forces are pulling the old allies apart. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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It’s not just Britain that’s breaking up, Europe is too

Posted by hkarner - 8. November 2019

Date: 07-11-2019
Source: The Guardian by Martin Kettle

The tremors of this Brexit election will be felt across a continent whose powers are on the wane

Arguably the most surreal event during the general election campaign is scheduled for the week before polling day. On 3 December, Nato leaders, including Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, will gather at a Buckingham Palace reception. The next day, the Nato chiefs will meet in a luxury – but thankfully non-Trump-owned – hotel outside Watford. It’s the event where the leaders will discuss big subjects including Syria, Afghanistan, Russia and military burden-sharing – and where none of these big subjects is likely to be solved.

In the not so distant past, a leader fighting an election might have seen an international summit they were hosting as a golden opportunity. The grandeur and importance of such a gathering would mean free publicity from the campaign gods, reminding voters that the incumbent is someone who bestrides the world stage, has the ear of powerful allies, and is at ease with the deepest responsibilities of office. As a prime minister milked the occasion, opponents could only grind their teeth in frustration. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Christine Lagarde’s Hardest Task Isn’t In Her Job Description

Posted by hkarner - 7. November 2019

Date: 06-11-2019
Source: Foreign Affairs By Erik Jones

Reviving Europe’s Economy Will Take More Than Monetary Policy

Christine Lagarde

Mario Draghi became president of the European Central Bank (ECB) when the financial crisis had reached its depth. At the time, he promised to do “whatever it took” to safeguard the euro from collapse. Eight years later, Draghi has come to the end of his tenure, which by most measures can be judged a success. He stabilized European financial markets and expanded the bank’s monetary policy toolkit. Even Draghi’s critics admit that he managed better than anyone imagined.

At the very end of his mandate, however, Draghi made his most controversial move to date. In September, he announced that the ECB would relax its existing policy instruments and inject 20 billion euros every month into the eurozone in the form of new asset purchases. The mix of policies, Draghi claimed, would continue as long as necessary to shore up the flagging eurozone economies. He argued that it would restore confidence in the market and ensure that banks provide credit for investment in the private sector. Critics responded that by loosening the purse strings, Draghi would lower the profitability of European banking, support firms that may never climb out of debt, and encourage governments to borrow money that they may not be able to repay. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s median age will soon overtake America’s

Posted by hkarner - 4. November 2019

Date: 31-10-2019
Source: The Economist

Demography may be the Chinese economy’s biggest challenge

Shortly after 9am the neighbourhood care centre for the elderly shuffles to life. One man belts out a folk song. A centenarian sits by his Chinese chessboard, awaiting an opponent. A virtual-reality machine, which lets users experience such exotic adventures as grocery shopping and taking the subway, sits unused in the corner. A bigger attraction is the morning exercise routine—a couple of dozen people limbering up their creaky joints. They are the leading edge of China’s rapid ageing, a trend that is already starting to constrain its economic potential.

Since the care centre opened half a year ago in Changning, in central Shanghai, more than 12,000 elderly people from the area have passed through its doors. The city launched these centres in 2014, combining health clinics, drop-in facilities and old-people’s homes. It plans to have 400 by 2022. “We can’t wait. We’ve got to do everything in our ability to build these now,” says Peng Yanli, a community organiser. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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European Cloud Project Draws Backlash From U.S. Tech Giants

Posted by hkarner - 3. November 2019

Date: 02-11-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Move toward ‘digital sovereignty’ will restrict data services along national borders in a global economy, Amazon and Microsoft say

Germany and France are introducing a government-backed project to develop European cloud infrastructure in an effort to help local providers compete with U.S. technology giants, which dominate the global cloud market.

Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. criticized the initiative announced this week, called Gaia-X, saying the project will restrict data services along national borders.

The reach of Amazon, Microsoft and other U.S. giants worries European politicians and corporate executives. Companies in Germany and France, the continent’s economic powerhouses, and in other European Union countries are concerned about depending on technology providers that must comply with the U.S. Cloud Act, WSJ Pro Cybersecurity reported in October. The 2018 law requires American firms to provide law enforcement with customers’ personal data on request, even when the servers containing the information are abroad. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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