Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Europe’

IWF-Chefin warnt vor wirtschaftlicher Nord-Süd-Kluft in der EU

Posted by hkarner - 17. Februar 2019

15. Februar 2019, 08:29 derstandard.at

Laut Christine Lagarde wurde die Situation seit der Finanzkrise schlechter

München – IWF-Chefin Christine Lagarde hat vor einer wachsenden wirtschaftlichen Kluft zwischen den Nord- und Südstaaten in der EU gewarnt: Während die osteuropäischen Länder in den vergangenen Jahren den Abstand zu den alten EU-Mitgliedsstaaten verringert hätten, sei die Anpassung zwischen Nord und Süd in den vergangenen 20 Jahren nicht vorangekommen. „Seit der (Finanz-)Krise ist die Situation sogar noch schlechter geworden“, sagte Lagarde am Donnerstagabend auf der Münchner Europakonferenz. Deshalb müsse nun eine Aufholjagd beginnen, wenn man die EU auch politisch stabil halten wolle. Nötig seien Strukturreformen vor allem auf drei Gebieten: Zum einen müssten die Arbeitsmärkte in Ländern wie Griechenland oder Italien flexibler werden. Lagarde verwies auf Portugal als positives Beispiel. Dort seien sehr viel mehr feste statt befristete Jobs entstanden, weil die Arbeitsgesetze flexibler geworden seien.

Gesetzliche Rahmenbedingungen verbessern

Zweitens sei es nötig, die gesetzlichen Rahmenbedingungen für Firmen zu verbessern. In Griechenland dauere es etwa neunmal so lang, eine Firma abzuwickeln, wie in Irland. „Einen gemeinsamen Versicherungsmarkt in der EU kann es aber erst geben, wenn auch die Insolvenzregeln harmonisiert sind“, sagte sie. Drittens sei es für die südlichen EU-Staaten nötig, mehr in Forschung und Entwicklung zu investieren. Italien, Portugal und Spanien hätten zwischen 2000 und 2014 durchschnittlich nur ein Prozent ihrer Wirtschaftsleistung für Innovationen ausgegeben. Zum Vergleich: In Deutschland erreichten die Forschungsausgaben 2018 erstmals die Marke von drei Prozent des BIP. (APA, Reuters, 15.2.2019) – derstandard.at/2000098046638/IWF-Chefin-warnt-vor-wirtschaftlicher-Nord-Sued-Kluft-in-der

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Saving Europe by Destroying It From Within

Posted by hkarner - 16. Februar 2019

Date: 15-02-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Euroskeptics may bolster the bloc by shifting focus away from institutions and onto the needs of people.

Brussels anticipates European Parliament elections in May with a growing sense of dread. Anti-European Union parties could capture one-third of the seats in the pan-Continental legislature, positioning them to block most important EU projects.

A much-discussed new report from the pro-EU European Council on Foreign Relations sums up the problem from this perspective right in its title: “How Anti-Europeans Plan to Wreck Europe and What Can Be Done to Stop It.”

Here’s how to keep these political movements from wrecking Europe: Don’t try to stop them at all.

There’s no denying the shake-up awaiting Brussels if unconventional parties fare as well as expected in the May vote. Until now the chief characteristic of both the European Parliament and the elections that select its members has been profound boringness. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bitte wach auf, Europa

Posted by hkarner - 13. Februar 2019

George Soros

George Soros is Chairman of Soros Fund Management and Chairman of the Open Society Foundations. A pioneer of the hedge-fund industry, he is the author of many books, including The Alchemy of Finance, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What it Means, and The Tragedy of the European Union.

MÜNCHEN – Europa schlafwandelt in Richtung Untergang, und die Europäer müssen aufwachen, bevor es zu spät ist. Tun sie es nicht, wird die Europäische Union dem Muster der Sowjetunion aus dem Jahr 1991 folgen. Weder unsere Regierungen noch die Normalbürger scheinen zu verstehen, dass wir an einem revolutionären Moment stehen, dass die Bandbreite der Möglichkeiten enorm ist und dass das letztlich Resultat daher hochgradig unsicher ist.

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Incredible Shrinking Europe

Posted by hkarner - 12. Februar 2019

Date: 12-02-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Walter Russell Mead

The Continent’s grand unity project is failing, and its global influence is fading.

Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs. As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.

As its economy lags behind, Europe is becoming more divided politically. Brexit negotiations have inflamed tempers on both sides of the English Channel; Central European countries like Hungary and Poland are alienated from the West; much of Southern Europe remains bitter about the aftermath of the euro crisis; and anti-EU political parties continue to gain support across the bloc. A recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations projects that anti-EU parties from the right and left are on course to control enough seats in the next European Parliament that they will be able to disrupt the EU and weaken it further. This wasn’t supposed to happen. The EU was founded to stop Europe’s decline, not reflect it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s populist government is dreaming of economic growth

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2019

Date: 07-02-2019
Source: The Economist

In fact the country is in recession, and the coalition is cracking

For italy, 2019 will be bellissimo, its prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, said this month. The economy, he declared, could grow by up to 1.5%. With much of Europe at risk of slipping into recession, that sounds pretty good.

In fact, Italy is already in recession. Its gdp fell in both the third and fourth quarters of 2018, and few forecasters are as sanguine as Mr Conte. The Bank of Italy expects the economy to grow by just 0.6% this year. The prime minister is banking on an expansionary budget. If this fails to revive the economy, the two parties in his populist coalition, the Five Star Movement (m5s) and the nationalist Northern League, will be in trouble. Many question whether their fractious marriage can survive beyond summer. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Konjunktur: Die Party in Europa ist vorbei

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2019

Brüssel stutzt die Wachstumsaussichten für die EU zusammen. Italien schrammt knapp an der Rezession vorbei.

Brüssel/Frankfurt. Seit Wochen warnen Wirtschaftsforscher und Unternehmer mehr oder weniger verklausuliert vor einem Einbruch der Konjunktur in Europa. Mit dem gestrigen Donnerstag sind auch die letzten Zweifel beseitigt: Unabhängig voneinander erklärten die Europäische Zentralbank und die EU-Kommission den simultanen Aufschwung der vergangenen Jahre für beendet. Und dieses Ende fällt deutlich abrupter aus als gedacht.

Im Detail unterscheiden sich die beiden Prognosen dann doch voneinander. So betonen die Währungshüter in Frankfurt, dass es mit dem Wirtschaftswachstum in der Eurozone in erster Linie kurzfristig bergab gehen werde. Darin versteckt sich auch die Botschaft, dass es – zumindest unter EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi – wohl keine nennenswerte Zinserhöhung geben wird.

Die EU-Kommission malt die Zukunftsaussichten des größten Wirtschaftsraumes der Welt in ihrer Winterprognose noch schwärzer als die Zentralbanker. Im kommenden Jahr werde die Eurozone nur noch um 1,3 Prozent wachsen. Das sind 0,6 Prozentpunkte weniger, als Brüssel im Herbst für 2019 in Aussicht gestellt hatte. Fast alle Länder müssen Einbußen hinnehmen. Italien kratzt gar an der Rezession. Alle Mitgliedstaaten (inkl. Großbritannien) werden heuer um 1,5 statt 1,9 Prozent wachsen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Margrethe Vestager, bane of Alstom and Siemens, could get the EU’s top job

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2019

Date: 07-02-2019
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne

The competition commissioner would make a dynamic president of the Commission, but needs liberals to unite behind her

Rest in peace, “Trainbus”. On February 6th Margrethe Vestager, the European Union’s competition commissioner, vetoed a merger between Germany’s Siemens and France’s Alstom that proposed to do for train-building what Airbus has done for plane-building: create a European giant capable of competing with the world’s biggest. The move dismays Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, who argue that Europe needs champions to take on rivals such as China’s crrc. But the commissioner ruled that the merger would eliminate competition in certain sectors, and argued that the eu should instead take on Chinese industrial might with better rules on state subsidies, data privacy and takeovers. Her wariness is welcome. Achieving competitive European firms through mega-mergers confronts the symptom—a lack of European industrial giants—rather than the underlying problem, which is insufficient integration of European markets.

Ms Vestager (pronounced “Vest-ayer”) does not shy away from making powerful enemies. Brought up in a bustling Lutheran parsonage in a coastal corner of Denmark, she is known in Brussels for her straight manner and dry humour. She arrived there in 2014 after a career in Copenhagen as education minister, economy minister and leader of Radikale, a small social-liberal party. Her detractors say she has since picked easy targets, predominantly American technology firms, to make herself popular. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Adieu Jean-Claude

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2019

Date: 06-02-2019
Source: SPIEGEL

Juncker’s Reign Atop the EU Stumbles to a Close

He has drawn fire for stroking a female colleagues‘ hair; he stumbled badly during a NATO dinner; right-wing populists have taken aim as European elections approach. How well is European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker really faring?

United Airlines Flight 951 is ready for departure and Jean-Claude Juncker is one of the last to board the plane, greeting the journalists accompanying him on his trip to Washington. „Everything’s OK. It’s just my damned knee,“ he says, before disappearing into the front of the Boeing 777. The European Commission president is wearing a blue shirt and jeans with a braided belt, and limping slightly. During the flight, three blue file folders lie on the armrest of his seat. When Juncker returns from the lavatory during the flight, he blows kisses to the reporters.

A few days earlier, Juncker had stumbled across the blue carpet at the NATO summit, with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and others having to grab him under the arms and drag him to the gala dinner. Right-wing politicians mocked the allegedly drunk commission head while in Germany, parliamentarians from the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) immediately posted the video on social media. His spokesman said that Juncker had suffered a „painful attack of sciatica.“ He rejected any aspersions that alcohol might have been involved. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How EU Leaders Can Prevent a No-Deal Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 6. Februar 2019

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

British Prime Minister Theresa May’s strategy of threatening a no-deal Brexit requires a hard deadline that forces her opponents to capitulate. Without that, “running down the clock” becomes “kicking the can down the road,” which more accurately reflects May’s paradoxical combination of robotic inflexibility and exasperating indecisiveness.

LONDON – Has British Prime Minister Theresa May outmaneuvered all her opponents? By defeating Parliament’s effort to rule out a disorderly “no-deal” rupture between the European Union and its second-largest trading partner, May has redoubled pressure on EU leaders to accept her demands by the Brexit deadline of March 29.

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Financial Stability in Abnormal Times

Posted by hkarner - 5. Februar 2019

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Despite improvements in the financial system since the 2008 crisis, the piecemeal reforms that have been enacted fall far short of what is needed. And an inexorably growing financial system, combined with an increasingly toxic political environment, means that the next major financial crisis may come sooner than you think.

CAMBRIDGE – A decade on from the 2008 global financial crisis, policymakers constantly assure us that the system is much safer today. The giant banks at the core of the meltdown have scaled back their risky bets, and everyone – investors, consumers, and central bankers – is still on high alert. Regulators have worked hard to ensure greater transparency and accountability in the banking industry. But are we really all that safe?

Normally, one would say “yes.” The kind of full-blown systemic global financial crisis that erupted a decade ago is not like a typical septennial recession. The much lower frequency of systemic crises reflects two realities: policymakers respond with reforms to prevent their recurrence, and it normally takes investors, consumers, and politicians a long time to forget the last one. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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