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Posts Tagged ‘Europe’

European Threats

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2018

December 7, 2018

Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember.

That makes me an extremely unusual American. Most of us never visit Europe, except maybe for a rare dream vacation. And that’s okay because our own country is wonderful and has a lifetime of sights to see. But it does affect our perspective on the world. Many of us don’t fully grasp how important Europe is to the US and global economy.

We may soon get a lesson on that. I’ve talked about Italy’s ongoing debt crisis, which is not improving, but Europe has other problems, too. Worse, events are coalescing such that several potential crises—all major on their own—could strike at the same time, and not too long from now. As I’ve been saying for about three years, there is no reason for the US to have a recession on its own. I think events elsewhere will push us into it, and Europe is a really big current risk. I know from my visits to Europe and discussions with friends there, they see all sorts of problems with Trump and particularly his tariffs.

However, another concern is that the various actors in Europe are not playing nice with each other. I tell my European friends the same forces that yielded Trump are coming to a European country near them. In some places, they already have. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Northern member states unite on euro-zone reform

Posted by hkarner - 9. Dezember 2018

Date: 06-12-2018
Source: The Economist

The group, dubbed the New Hanseatic League, abhors fiscal transfers

In the late Middle Ages the Hanseatic League, a confederation of merchant guilds in northern Europe, dominated maritime trade in the Baltic and North seas. Now finance ministers from the northern states, characterised by their fiscally hawkish and free-market views, are hoping to set the course for reforms to the European Union. Composed of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Sweden, the group, dubbed the New Hanseatic League, is starting to have some influence.

The immediate impulse for the alliance, which first assembled over dinner in Brussels about a year ago, is Brexit. The group had considered its interests well enough represented as long as Britain’s free-market stance and Germany’s fiscal prudence tempered the French enthusiasm for “solidarity” (ie, redistribution) and protectionism. But Britain’s withdrawal means that they have lost a champion of openness.

At the same time, the French and the Germans have an irksome habit of cooking up reforms to the single-currency area between them. The latest example of that was in June, when Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel agreed a common position. Their declaration formed the basis for the package of reforms that eu finance ministers thrashed out on December 4th, and which will be formally agreed on by heads of state in Brussels on December 14th. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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News from Euroland – recession imminent

Posted by hkarner - 8. Dezember 2018

By
17 mins. to read

When the money tap went dry…

Across Europe, and particularly in the 18-member Eurozone, the economic news is sobering. It’s now clear that the credit crunch in emerging markets which has played out over most of this year, plus the slowdown in China, are having negative consequences in Europe. Yet, despite the ongoing trauma of Brexit, the UK is cruising along relatively smoothly – for now.

A number of critical events are about to coincide. Firstly, the ECB will cease printing money by means of quantitative easing (QE) in December. The principal measure of the money supply across Europe, M3, was growing by around 5 percent per year when the ECB was buying up to €80 billion of bonds a month in 2013. That rate slowed to 2.1 percent in Q3 this year and will prospectively fall to zero in Q1 2019.

QE was instigated by ECB President Mario Draghi who took over the reins on 1st November 2011. At the beginning of 2012, at the height of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, he pledged that the ECB would do everything it takes to save the Euro. First came a programme of soft loans to Eurozone banks (the so-called LRTO); then came a massive programme of government and then corporate bond-buying following the example set by America’s Federal Reserve in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s Alibaba Takes On Amazon in European Cloud

Posted by hkarner - 6. Dezember 2018

Date: 05-12-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject:

Competition shows how Chinese internet firms and Silicon Valley now view Europe as a battleground

Revenue at the business more than doubled to about $2.1 billion in fiscal 2018.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Amazon.com Inc. are squaring off in Europe—and not just in e-commerce but also in the quickly growing cloud-computing market.

The Chinese company’s competition with Amazon, the world’s biggest cloud-computing player, reflects how Europe is turning into a battleground between China’s tech giants and Silicon Valley.

“Europe is very strategic for us because a lot of European countries are quite advanced markets,” said Yeming Wang, who runs Alibaba’s European cloud business.

Cloud computing is an important growth engine for Alibaba and Amazon. Amazon Web Services is one of the U.S. company’s biggest profit drivers, while revenue at the Chinese company’s cloud business more than doubled to about $2.1 billion during fiscal 2018. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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EU: Rückschlag bei Digitalsteuer

Posted by hkarner - 5. Dezember 2018

Internetkonzerne müssen sich vorerst nicht vor einer neuen Steuer fürchten. Nationale Interessen standen einer EU-Einigung im Weg.

Brüssel. Der Plan, noch unter der österreichischen EU-Präsidentschaft eine europaweite Digitalsteuer zu fixieren, ist am Dienstag gescheitert. Ein vorbereiteter Kompromiss von Finanzminister Hartwig Löger (ÖVP) fand keine ausreichende Zustimmung. Damit dürfen große Internetkonzerne wie Google oder Facebook vorerst aufatmen.

Für eine solche gemeinsame Steuer wäre ein einstimmiger Beschluss notwendig gewesen. Widerstand kam aus Dänemark, Schweden, Irland, Ungarn, Luxemburg, Litauen und Tschechien. Einige forderten eine globale Lösung im Rahmen der OECD statt einer Pionierleistung der EU, anderen war der Anwendungsbereich nicht ausreichend breit. Österreichs Kompromissvariante hatte vorgesehen, dass die Digitalsteuer zwar vorbereitet, aber erst 2022 umgesetzt werden soll. Bis dahin hätte auf OECD-Ebene eine globale Lösung gesucht werden können. EU-Wirtschaftskommissar Pierre Moscovici hatte den Löger-Vorschlag als „hervorragenden Kompromiss“ bezeichnet. Denn durch ihn hätte es eine stärkere Motivation gegeben, nach einer globalen Lösung zu suchen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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London to lose €800bn to Frankfurt as banks prepare for Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 30. November 2018

Date: 29-11-2018
Source: The Guardian

Lobby group says up to 37 finance firms are relocating to Germany, taking assets with them

City firms are in the process of moving operations to Frankfurt before Britain exits the EU.

London will lose up to to €800bn (£700bn) in assets to rival financial hub Frankfurt by March 2019 as banks start to transfer business to the German city before Brexit day.

The lobby group Frankfurt Main Finance released the figure after it was confirmed that 30 banks and financial firms had chosen the city as the site of their new EU headquarters.

But with several banks – including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – planning to spread their operations across a number of cities including Dublin and Paris, the lobby group believes the number of firms committed to expanding or setting up offices in Frankfurt will be closer to 37.

Ultimately it will mean draining billions of pounds worth of assets from London to companies’ German operations within months. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe Finally Pulls the Trigger on a Military Force

Posted by hkarner - 22. November 2018

Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics and Public Finance at the University of Munich, was President of the ifo Institute and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council. He is the author, most recently, of The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs.

After two years of US President Donald Trump treating European allies as if they were adversaries, France and Germany have finally committed to the creation of an EU-wide army under a central command. Far from signaling a break from the transatlantic order, the move promises to shore up existing alliances for the long term.

MUNICH – US President Donald Trump is making an intolerable show of himself in Europe. Not only has he cast doubt on America’s commitment to mutual defense under NATO; he has also unilaterally withdrawn from the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany and the European Union.

Since then, the Trump administration has unilaterally imposed an embargo on goods deliveries to Iran from any third country, including the other signatories of the agreement. Foreign firms that continue to conduct business in Iran now face the , and banks that process transactions risk losing access to the US financial system. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Großbritannien gegen die EU: Europa lässt sich nicht auflösen

Posted by hkarner - 20. November 2018

Date: 19-11-2018
Source: SPIEGEL Eine Kolumne von Henrik Müller

Der Brexit-Tumult zeigt: Die EU ist derart eng zusammengewachsen, dass ein Austritt faktisch kaum möglich ist – jedenfalls nicht zu vertretbaren Kosten. Aus dieser Erkenntnis erwachsen neue Chancen.

Das Brexit-Abkommen offenbart eine simple Tatsache: Die Europäer bilden längst eine Schicksalsgemeinschaft, die sich nicht so einfach auflösen lässt.

Drei Millionen Bürger aus anderen EU-Ländern leben auf den Inseln, eine Million Briten auf dem Kontinent. Wirtschaftlich, rechtlich, auch ganz persönlich – die Europäer sind nach Jahrzehnten der Integration voneinander hochgradig abhängig. Die Länder Europas sind inzwischen so eng verflochten, dass sich diese Verbindungen eigentlich nicht mehr lösen lassen, jedenfalls nicht zu halbwegs vertretbaren Kosten. (Achten Sie kommenden Sonntag auf den Gipfel der übrigen 27 EU-Regierungschefs.)

Leider ist diese Erkenntnis noch nicht in die politischen Debatten vorgedrungen, weder in Großbritannien noch auf dem Kontinent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s New Political Battle Lines

Posted by hkarner - 19. November 2018

Zaki Laïdi, Professor of International Relations at Sciences Po, was an adviser to former French prime minister Manuel Valls. His most recent book is Le reflux de l’Europe.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras recently declared that a united front of “all progressive, democratic, and pro-European forces have a duty to stand side by side on the same side of history.” But will that be enough to offset gains by nationalist populists in the May 2019 European Parliament election?

PARIS – French President Emmanuel Macron has framed the European Parliament election in May 2019 as a battle not between the traditional right and left, but between populists and pro-European progressives like himself. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras recently adopted similar rhetoric, declaring that “all progressive, democratic, and pro-European forces have a duty to stand side by side on the same side of history.” Would such a fundamental Europe-wide political shift – much like the one in France that brought Macron to power last year – actually come to pass?

The European People’s Party (EPP) on the right and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) on the left have long shared control of the European Parliament, where they have governed by compromise. But, over time, this has produced a kind of political homogenization in Europe, leading to mass abstentionism. Those who do vote increasingly choose anti-establishment parties that often espouse extreme views. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Beginn der Krise der Stahlindustrie

Posted by hkarner - 18. November 2018

Dank an B.H., einem Teilnehmer. 17.11.2018

Treffen der GeschäftsführerInnen der internationalen Stahlverbände in Düsseldorf:

Krise der Europäischen Autoindustrie bringt die Aktien der Stahlindustrie ebenfalls in den Abschwung. Die Rahmenbedingungen der EU und der Nationalstaaten wie Kartellverfahren in Deutschland und Italien, Autofahrverbote für Dieselautos in Köln, Bonn, u. a. Städten lassen eine längere Krise erwarten.

Chinas Stahlindustrie wird in den nächsten 3 Jahren 200.000 Mitarbeiter abbauen. Bis 2025 ist ein Kapazitätsabbau von ca. 300 Mill t p.a. Und ein Rückgang der Produktion von derzeit 840 auf 700 Mill. t bis 2025 ist geplant.

In den USA erlebt die Stahlindustrie einen Aufschwung durch das Wachstum der US Autoindustrie und die Politik Trumps.
Der Stahlbedarf ist in den letzten 10 Jahren um 30% auf 90 Mio t p.a. gestiegen.

Alleine US Steel wird 2 Mrd USD investieren Die USA werden auch mittelfristig 10Mio t Stahl p.a. importieren um den Inlandsbedarf abzudecken. Neben dem Aufschwung der Autos wird es in den USA auch einen Aufschwung bei Oil&Gas geben.
US Stahlverband AIST will nach Brasilien auch in Europa expandieren.

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