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Posts Tagged ‘Britain’

The Battle for Britain

Posted by hkarner - 25. Februar 2017

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Brexit, Donald Trump and the threat to Europe

Posted by hkarner - 19. Januar 2017

Thanks to R.H.

Britain is courting a president-elect who looks forward to the unravelling of the EU

Philip Stephens, FT, 19/1

London mayor warns EU rivals trying to grab city’s finance jobs

may-cc2Theresa May’s speech outlined her vision for a post-Brexit ‚Global Britain‘

British prime ministers are prone to spend their last days governing from a bunker. Convinced of their own immortality they dispense with forthright advisers in favour of devoted aides. The passage of time narrows their sight of the world beyond the front door of 10 Downing Street.Theresa May has started out where her predecessors ended up.

Scarcely six months in the job, Mrs May is roundly mistrustful of her senior civil servants. Officials are shut out of decision-making. Unvarnished advice invites histrionics from her political sidekicks. It is not an intelligent way to run a government — never mind one charged with managing the biggest upheaval in the nation’s political and economic life since the end of the second world war.

Mrs May has now set out her plans for a “hard” Brexit — a clean break with the EU that will take Britain out of the single market and the customs union. There can be no half-in, half-out, she said, if Britain wanted to curb EU migration and renounce the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. The prime minister had previously dismissed the idea of such a trade-off. She would get a bespoke deal, and Britain, in the tactful phrase of Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, would have its cake and eat it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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After six months, what the new prime minister stands for is still unclear—perhaps even to her

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2017

Date: 05-01-2017
Source: The Economist
Subject: Theresa Maybe, Britain’s indecisive premier

May cc 1WITHIN hours of the Brexit referendum last summer David Cameron had resigned, and within three weeks Theresa May had succeeded him as prime minister. The speed of her ascent to power, on July 13th 2016, without a general election or a full-blown Tory leadership contest, meant that Mayism was never spelt out in any manifesto or endorsed by the electorate. Yet the new prime minister soon made clear the scale of her ambitions for Britain. Not only would she make a success of Brexit, she would also set in motion a sea-change in social mobility to correct the “burning injustices” faced by the downtrodden, and reshape “the forces of liberalism and globalisation which have held sway…across the Western world.” Her allies talked of an epochal moment, comparable to Margaret Thatcher’s break with the past in 1979. The feeble condition of the Labour opposition gave Mrs May control of a one-party state. As for her mandate, she cited the referendum: a “quiet revolution” by people “not prepared to be ignored any more”.

Yet after half a year in office there is strikingly little to show for this May revolution. The strategy for Brexit, which is due to be triggered in less than three months, remains undefined in any but the vaguest terms, and seems increasingly chaotic. At home, the grand talk about transforming society and taming capitalism has yielded only timid proposals, many of which have already been scaled down or withdrawn. The growing suspicion is that the Sphinx-like prime minister is guarded about her plans chiefly because she is still struggling to draw them up. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Most Brexit-Brits don’t have a clue what’s involved

Posted by hkarner - 18. Dezember 2016

Date: 17-12-2016
Source: The Economist
Subject: British companies may find it harder than they expect to unravel the EU’s red tape

If it wants to carry on doing business with Europe, Britain will have to keep following its rules

ANOTHER week, another EU regulation: number 1169/2011, to be exact, concerning “food information for consumers”. Like much that comes out of Brussels, it sounds innocuous, but has already had far-reaching and costly consequences. The new rules, which came into force on December 13th, specify font sizes on food labels, require details on allergens in prepared food and a lot more. They may improve safety, but they have forced producers to rejig their manufacturing processes once again.

The breadth of EU regulation in the food industry is extraordinary, covering everything from hygiene to storage, says Helen Munday, the chief scientific officer at the Food and Drink Federation, a lobby group. Conforming to these rules over the past four decades has shaped an industry that now employs 400,000 people in Britain. The Europe-wide regulations are a faff, but they allow British firms to trade on equal terms with other companies in the EU’s single market and maintain seamless supply chains across the continent, without lengthy inspections of imported Italian mushrooms at national borders. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Theresa May’s Nasty Britain

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2016

Photo of Mark Leonard

Mark Leonard

Mark Leonard is Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

OCT 25, 2016 Project Syndicate

LONDON – British Prime Minister Theresa May once warned her fellow Conservatives of the perils of being known as the “nasty party.” But after 100 days in office, she is in danger of going further, turning the United Kingdom into the nasty country.

In just a few months, May has launched attacks on “international elites” and decided to prioritize immigration controls over single-market access in negotiating the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. At one point recently, companies faced the threat of being compelled to furnish a list of their foreign workers. And the 3.5 million European citizens who are settled in the UK were left to worry about whether May’s government would guarantee their residence rights. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Britische Preise steigen wie seit gut zwei Jahren nicht mehr

Posted by hkarner - 18. Oktober 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

In den Nachwehen des Brexit-Votums sind die Preise in Großbritannien so stark gestiegen wie seit rund zwei Jahren nicht mehr. Die Inflationsrate erhöhte sich im September auf 1,0 Prozent nach einem Wert von 0,6 Prozent im August, wie das Statistikamt ONS am Dienstag mitteilte.

Zuletzt hatte sie im November 2014 höher gelegen. Experten hatten im Schnitt lediglich einen Anstieg um 0,9 Prozent erwartet.

Seit dem Brexit-Votum vom Juni hat das Pfund zum Dollar fast 20 Prozent an Wert eingebüßt, so Reuters. Der Pfund-Verfall werden Importe auf die Insel tendenziell teurer – insbesondere die in Dollar abgerechneten Öllieferungen. Zudem verteuerte sich Bekleidung zum Vormonat so stark wie seit sechs Jahren nicht mehr: „Doch gibt es keine eindeutigen Hinweise, dass das schwächere Pfund die Preise von Konsumgütern des täglichen Bedarfs nach oben treibt“, sagte ONS-Experte Mike Prestwood.

Die Zentralbank, die Anfang November zu ihrer nächsten Zinssitzung zusammenkommt, rechnet damit, dass die Inflation in den nächsten Monaten weiter zunimmt und ihr Ziel einer Teuerungsrate von zwei Prozent bereits im Sommer 2017 erreicht wird. Manche Bankenökonomen sagen für Ende nächsten Jahres sogar Inflationsraten zwischen drei und vier Prozent voraus.

Um die Konjunktur nach dem Referendum anzukurbeln, hat die BoE im August die Zinsen gekappt. Zudem öffnete sie die Geldschleusen weiter und stockte ihre Staatsanleihenkäufe auf. Angesichts der unsicheren Konjunkturaussichten hält sie sich für eine weitere Senkung der Leitzinsen bereit, die derzeit auf dem Rekordtief von 0,25 Prozent sind.

BoE-Chef Mark Carney sagte jüngst der BBC, dass sich die Konjunktur zuletzt besser entwickelt habe als erwartet. Es gehe jedoch langsamer voran als vor dem Referendum. Die Briten hatten sich am 23. Juni mehrheitlich dafür entschieden, der EU den Rücken zu kehren. Dies hat zu Verunsicherung in der Wirtschaft geführt.

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British politics: Britain’s one-party state

Posted by hkarner - 17. September 2016

Date: 15-09-2016
Source: The Economist

Labour’s implosion leaves Britain without a functioning opposition. That is more dangerous than many realise

CHEERING crowds flock to his rallies. Youngsters embrace him for selfies and hang on his every tweet. Jeremy Corbyn, improbable, crinkly rockstar of the far left, is on course to be re-elected Labour’s leader on September 24th in a landslide vote among the party’s members, hundreds of thousands of whom have joined up in the past year just to back him.

Yet Mr Corbyn’s popularity among Labour’s half-million members and affiliates is not replicated among Britain’s 45m voters, most of whom do not share his desire to overthrow capitalism and unilaterally forsake the country’s nuclear weapons, nor his soft spot for strongmen such as Vladimir Putin and the late Hugo Chávez. The party is polling at its lowest in opposition for 30 years. Among young people, his most sympathetic constituency, Mr Corbyn has an approval rating of -18%. Among the over-65s it is -68%. Labour is on course to lose scores of seats at the next election. And it will not end there. Parties often pick bad candidates—mainstream Republicans recoil at Donald Trump, for instance—but it usually costs them no more than one election. Mr Corbyn, by contrast, is packing Labour with allies and seems more concerned with building a long-term “movement” than winning power. The Conservative government can expect years without being seriously challenged in Westminster. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japan’s demand for ’seamless Brexit‘ is a timely warning against hubris 

Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2016

 Britain is likely to scrape by without any economic contraction this quarter and seems almost certain to avoid a recession this year. Few could have hoped that the immediate Brexit squall would blow over so quickly.

The record one-month jump in services activity in August clinches a spate of remarkably resilient figures, more or less neutralizing the cascade of crashing indexes in July.

Markit’s combined gauge of services and manufacturing is back up to 53.6. This is higher than it was before the referendum vote, and higher than it is currently in the eurozone, where Schadenfreude has proved short-lived. It is no longer implausible to suggest that the UK economy might outperform the eurozone this quarter, and nor should this be a great surprise.

The 12pc drop in sterling against the euro – compared to its trading range earlier this year – is a macro-economic stimulus for Britain. It is a form of macro-economic tightening for the eurozone, creating an extra headwind as it struggles to break out of a deflation trap. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Three Questions to Determine Fate of Post-Brexit Britain

Posted by hkarner - 16. August 2016

Date: 15-08-2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal By SIMON NIXON

The ultimate cost of leaving the EU may be largely out of the U.K.’s hands, Simon Nixon writes

It is too soon to count with any certainty the immediate cost of the Brexit vote on the U.K. economy. Some indicators point to a possible recession on the horizon: New manufacturing orders, for instance showed the biggest decline in July for nearly 20 years, while business confidence has taken the steepest dive since 1974.

But other evidence suggests a less severe and shorter-lived shock: stock-market indexes are back above prereferendum levels; sterling has stabilized at around 11% below its prereferendum trade-weighted level; real-estate agents expect housing prices to recover and rise over the next year, while the amount of new commercial real-estate space leased in July was up 24% from the previous year.

Many economists now expect the U.K. will stagnate rather than tip into outright recession in coming quarters. The swift resolution of the post-Brexit political crisis after former Prime Minister David Cameron’s resignation has clearly steadied nerves. The market’s biggest fear was a chaotic or confrontational Brexit process, says Holger Schmeiding, chief economist of Berenberg Bank. “But new Prime Minister Theresa May has so far exuded calm, raising hopes of an orderly exit,” he says. At the same time, the Bank of England’s “kitchen-sink” stimulus package announced this month should also help boost domestic demand to offset some of the impact of uncertainty. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Britische Zentralbank senkt Leitzins

Posted by hkarner - 4. August 2016

Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten  | 

Die britische Notenbank hat den Leitzins auf ein neues Rekordtief abgesenkt. Er liegt jetzt bei 0,25 Prozent, wie die Bank of England am Donnerstag mitteilte. Der Schritt war von den meisten Beobachtern erwartet worden, weil sich die wirtschaftlichen Daten zuletzt verschlechtert hatten.

Carney CCMark Carney, Gouverneur der Bank of England.

Die britische Notenbank reagiert auf den Brexit-Schock mit einer Leitzinssenkung. Der Schlüsselsatz wurde am Donnerstag auf das Rekordtief von 0,25 Prozent nach zuvor 0,5 Prozent gekappt, wie die Währungshüter am Donnerstag mitteilten. Die Bank of England (BoE) lockerte damit erstmals seit März 2009 die Zügel, als sie gegen die Weltwirtschaftskrise ankämpfte. Nun musste sie erneut zu einem geldpolitischen Feuerwehreinsatz ausrücken, denn das Land steuert nach dem EU-Austrittsreferendum vom 23. Juni auf den stärksten Konjunktureinbruch seit sieben Jahren zu. Die Notenbank rechnet für 2016 mit einer konjunkturellen Stagnation und signalisierte, dass sie noch dieses Jahr zu einer weiteren Zinssenkung bereit ist.

Um die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln, weitete die BoE auch die Geldflut aus: Sie stockte ihr Staatsanleihen-Kaufprogramm um 60 Milliarden auf 435 Milliarden Pfund (514 Milliarden Euro) auf. „Damit wurden die Markterwartungen übertroffen. Dies gilt auch vor dem Hintergrund, dass die BoE für die Zukunft weitere Maßnahmen in Aussicht gestellt hat“, sagte Ökonom Ulrich Wortberg von der Landesbank Helaba.

Im Juli hatte die Notenbank noch stillgehalten und die Anleger an der Börse damit auf dem falschen Fuß erwischt. Nun legte sie zwei neue Programme auf: Als zusätzliche Anschubhilfe sollen Unternehmensanleihen im Wert von zehn Milliarden Pfund angekauft werden. Komplettiert werden die Konjunkturspritzen durch ein Programm zur Förderung der Kreditvergabe. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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