Posted by hkarner - 26. April 2017
MUNICH – Record levels of migration to Germany over the last two years have called into question the country’s demographic projections. But Germany’s rapid shift to a more favorable profile is not a reason to postpone politically painful policy decisions about retirement and pensions.
At the beginning of this century, forecasts that were considered reliable predicted that Germany would lose more than ten million inhabitants by 2050, owing to declining immigration and a low average birth rate. Today, population projections are significantly brighter. According to the government’s latest calculations, Germany’s population could remain above 80 million until 2060, and the reduction in the labor supply might not be as drastic as was previously feared.
Demographic forecasts needed to be corrected significantly, because the number of immigrants to Germany has fluctuated wildly and unpredictably, as opposed to emigration from Germany, which has remained relatively stable. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Demographics, fertility, Germany, heise, Migration, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 27. März 2017
Source: The Economist
The EU must embrace greater differentiation or face potential disintegration
Charlemagne had a point
IS EUROPE READY to embrace a new model built around not sameness but difference? Although the recent commission white paper and several national leaders have come out for a multi-speed Europe, they really have in mind a way for small groups of countries to go forward in such areas as defence or taxation, without having to wait for all, using the treaty’s tools that allow enhanced co-operation. A true multi-speed, multi-tier Europe would be far more ambitious. Yet the troubles of the EU may seem to many quite enough to worry about without having to rethink the structure of their project.
That is certainly the message coming from national capitals and Brussels. Asked about how euro and non-euro countries will co-exist in future, one senior official in Paris notes that, after Brexit, nearly 90% of the union’s GDP will be generated by the euro zone. Others say all non-members except Denmark will join the euro within five years. The rows over asylum-seekers between east and west will similarly end, says a Eurocrat in Brussels, because central Europe gains so much from the EU. Brexit will hurt Britain more than its partners. And ideas for more variable geometry, such as the “continental partnerships” touted by Bruegel, are “suitable for think-tanks”, as another senior official (this time in Berlin) puts it, not to be taken seriously. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Economist, Europe, Migration | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 26. März 2017
Source: Der Spiegel
London in the Age of Terror and Brexit
London is the epicenter of globalization, a glut of money and creativity — and the antithesis of Brexit parochialism. It is also the best city in the world.
The crap weather, the traffic, the noise, the obscene amounts of money, the horrific rents, the Central Line during rush hour, the greed, the indifference, the Russians in Mayfair, the French in Notting Hill, and the price of a pint has long since risen above six euros: There are, of course, a number of reasons to hate London.
But then the sun peaks through the clouds for a second, the woman sitting across from you in the subway smiles and you are given a ticket for a theater premier — and all the aggravations are forgotten. In such moments, it becomes clear: There is no better place in the world than this wondrous city. Nowhere is more exciting or more polite, nowhere else gives you more, despite terror, despite Brexit and despite the constant chaos. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, London, Migration, Spiegel | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 16. März 2017
Source: The New York Times
Migration through Turkey rose sharply that year, with 850,000 people leaving Turkey for Greece.
ISTANBUL — When Turkey and Europe reached an agreement a year ago this week to restrict migration to Greece, it was bad news for Abu Samir, a Syrian-Palestinian people-smuggler in Istanbul.
By late 2015, Abu Samir, a former house painter from Aleppo, had become a key cog in one of the largest Europe-bound migrations in history, sending thousands of refugees, most of them Syrians, to Greece and earning up to $4,000 on some days. But in the 12 months since Turkey’s pact with the European Union, his business has collapsed.
The problem: Too few refugees and too many border patrols. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Migration, NYT, Turkey | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 5. Februar 2017
Absolutely essential reading! (hfk)
Source: Project Syndicate
Slawomir Sierakowski, founder of the Krytyka Polityczna movement, is Director of the Institute for Advanced Study in Warsaw.
Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. His books include The End of Poverty, Common Wealth, and, most recently, The Age of Sustainable
The Trump administration lacks both a global strategy and anyone who could formulate and implement one. And unless anti-populists in general – and the center left, in particular – face up to some hard realities, the menace of a rogue US will only grow.
The Populist Backlash
SS: You’ve written that Brexit and Trump are the same phenomenon. Do you think the populist wave that lifted both will spread further?
JS: I think societies everywhere are very divided. Whether it’s 51-49 or 49-51, we are not seeing landslide wins for populism, but rather a reflection of deep social divisions. And, yes, I think we’re going to see more of this, because there are so many anxieties that we don’t seem able to overcome.
Even the foundations of foreign policy are giving way. The Middle East crises are the result of America’s failure and fading global power, which are part of the social anguish many voters feel. Likewise, Brexit reflects a collapse in belief in the postwar order in Western Europe, which was forged during the Cold War but has now basically disintegrated.
SS: You attribute populism to four factors: rising nationalism, the weakening of American foreign policy, the crisis of the center left, and the refugee crisis. Yet you’re an economist. So what about economics? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Abnormal, Brexit, Migration, Populism, Project Syndicate, Refugee, Sachs, Sierakowski, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2016
Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is a co-author of the new book The Euro and The Battle of Ideas, and the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm, and Making the European Monetary Union.
NOV 8, 2016 Project Syndicate
LONDON – Financial markets are giving a thumbs-down to Brexit, and they are right to do so. But because it is finance, not democratic civil society, that is pushing back against the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union, the Brexit debate will become more bitter, and the fallout more severe.
The June referendum’s initial economic effects were negligible, and may even have been slightly positive, now that the UK’s post-referendum growth figures are being revised upward. But the British pound is sinking, the cost of financing UK government debt is rising, and the process of actually withdrawing from the EU could be highly destructive.
Having decided to leave the EU, it is in the UK’s interest to manage withdrawal in a way that minimizes short-term adjustment costs and long-term adverse effects. Likewise, it is in the EU’s interest to mitigate not only the economic impact, but also the reputational damage implied by the loss of a major member state. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, James, Migration, Project Syndicate | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 3. November 2016
Posted on November 2, 2016 by iMFdirect
By Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia and Montfort Mlachila
Migration of sub-Saharan Africans is growing rapidly. Just like the region’s population, the number of migrants doubled since 1990 to reach about 20 million in 2013. In the coming decades, migration will expand given the demographic boom in the working-age population—the group that typically feeds migration. We studied these trends in a recent paper because both receiving and sending countries need the right policies so all can benefit.
People on the go
Two trends dominate the evolution of sub-Saharan migration.
The number of refugees—people fleeing due to war or persecution—has decreased considerably since 1990, both within and outside the region. In 1990 about half of total migrants were refugees, and this share has declined to only about 10 percent by 2013.
At the same time, the share of migrants that move outside the region for economic reasons has increased steadily, growing sixfold between 1990 and 2013—from about 1 million to 6 million. In comparison, economic migrants within the region increased threefold—from 4 million to 12 million (Chart 1). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Africa, IMF, Migration, Refugee | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 19. Oktober 2016
Christian Dustmann, Francesco Fasani, Tommaso Frattini, Luigi Minale, Uta Schönberg
18 October 2016, voxeu
The current refugee crisis poses an enormous challenge not only to European countries, but to the fundaments and achievements of the EU as a whole. This column discusses how this latest crisis differs from the crisis in the early 1990s, and argues there is a drastic need for a new regulatory framework to replace dated coordination attempts. The framework should be based on two pillars: a coordinated policy that secures Europe’s outer borders and deals with asylum claims before refugees have (illegally) crossed into mainland Europe, and a more equitable allocation mechanism.
Once again a refugee crisis is at the top of the policy debate in Europe. At least three features distinguish the present refugee crisis from the one in the early 1990s. First, the primary causes for the current refugee movements are far more complex and beyond the scope of European influence. While the Balkan wars were considered mainly a Western responsibility, and Western resolve finally helped to restore stability, the current crisis involves a multitude of actors and geo-political interests, with the powers of Western nations to affect the course of events clearly limited. Second, the refugee movements of the early 1990s happened in an optimistic Europe that had just emerged from decades of Cold War and had embraced new economic opportunities and European integration and enlargement. In contrast, the current crisis hits an enlarged Europe, still entangled in the aftershocks of a deep recession and riddled by populist and separatist national movements. And third, the refugees who head towards Europe are culturally more distinct, and far larger in numbers than those in the early 1990s.
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Dustmann, Fasani, Frattini, Migration, Minale, Refugee, Schönberg, voxeu | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 4. Oktober 2016
Deutsche Wirtschafts Nachrichten | Veröffentlicht: 04.10.16 15:47 Uhr
Der österreichische Außenminister Kurz hat in einer TV-Sendung in wenigen Sätzen erklärt, warum die Flüchtlingskrise in Europa nicht mit ideologischen Schlachtrufen zu lösen ist.
Der österreichische Außenminister Sebastian Kurz.
Es kommt in der aufgeheizten Debatte um Flüchtlinge und Migration selten vor, dass Politiker einen kühlen Kopf bewahren, ohne hartherzig zu werden. Österreichs Außenminister Sebastian Kurz ist dies bei der TV-Sendung von Anne Will gelungen. Kurz sagte, dass in der Flüchtlingsfrage ein „Spaltpilz“ in Europa zu beobachten sei, der die EU zu spalten drohe. Es gäbe eine Blockbildung. Die Visegrad-Staaten träten stärker als Konterpart zu Deutschland auf. Kurz: „Das Problem, das wir haben, ist, dass viele Staaten das Gefühl haben, sie werden als Mitgliedsstaaten zweiter Klasse behandelt; sie müssen von den moralisch überlegenen erzogen werden.“ Das Ziel könne nicht der „kleine Club der moralisch Überlegenen“ sein, womit alle Erweiterungsanstrengungen der vergangenen Jahre zunicht gemacht würden. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel, Audios/Videos | Verschlagwortet mit: ARD, Austria, Germany, kurz, Migration | Leave a Comment »