Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Growth’

Root and branch: Economists understand little about the causes of growth

Posted by hkarner - 14. April 2018

Date: 12-04-2018
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

The first in a series of columns on the profession’s shortcomings

OVER the past decade economists have been intensely scrutinised for their intellectual failings in the run-up to the 2007-08 financial crisis. Yet had the recession that followed been more severe—wiping a quarter off the GDP of every advanced economy, say—those countries would still have ended up four times as rich per person, in purchasing-power terms, as developing countries are now, and more than ten times as rich as sub-Saharan ones. Robert Lucas, a Nobel prizewinning economist, once wrote that after you have started to think about the gap between poor and rich countries it is hard to think about anything else. Economists understand even less about economic growth than about business cycles. But the profession has done too little to address this failure or to understand its implications.

Economists have precious few hard facts about growth. They know that sustained growth in GDP per person only started in the 18th century. They know that countries can become rich only by growing steadily over long periods. They know that in some fundamental way growth is about using new technologies to become more productive and to uncover new ideas. Beyond that, almost everything is contested. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Assumptions Equal Problems

Posted by hkarner - 9. April 2018

April 6, 2018

The future is tantalizing because it is both unknown and unknowable. At best, we can make educated guesses about tomorrow or next year. Sometimes, it’s actually hard to understand what happened in the past, much less to chart how the future might unfold.

The problem is that some guesses are more educated than others, and even the best are often not good enough. This fact of life matters because we use those guesses to make important decisions about, for instance, government tax and spending policies. Mistakes can have terrible consequences.

These are subjects on which it is hard for any of us to be truly neutral. Most people want to lower their own taxes and simultaneously see more spending on whichever services they think government should deliver. The politicians we elect know this, so they try to give us what we want. The charade never ends well, but we and they keep at it.

Today we will look back at what economists thought the federal budget and tax policy would be in 2001 and thereafter. Let’s just say the government projections were a tad optimistic. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A new shade: The next Japan is not China but Thailand

Posted by hkarner - 7. April 2018

Date: 05-04-2018
Source: The Economist

Once the wildest of emerging markets, Thailand is ageing fast. Its economic policymakers need to change course

TWENTY years ago Thailand was the most torrid of emerging markets. After a spell of overheated growth and wide current-account deficits, it had exhausted its foreign-exchange reserves and lost its currency’s peg to the dollar. In the aftermath, inflation approached 10% and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) struggled to restore confidence in the baht. In a widely cited paper by Romain Rancière of the University of Southern California and two co-authors, Thailand was used as a stark illustration that dynamism and danger, fast growth and occasional crises, went hand in hand.

A few of today’s emerging markets can still set the pulse racing—Turkey, for example, has combined breakneck growth with double-digit inflation and a worrying slide in the lira. But Thailand is not one of them. Private investment expanded by only 1.7% last year. Thailand’s sovereign bonds yield less than America’s. Inflation is once again a worry, not because it is too high, but because it is so stubbornly low. Consumer prices rose by only 0.8% in March, according to figures released this week. Inflation has remained below the BoT’s target range of 1-4% for 13 months in a row. Core inflation, excluding raw food and energy, has been below 1% for almost three years.

“It’s Japan,” says one veteran observer of Thailand’s economy. “It’s got Japan’s demographics from 25 years ago, [and] it’s on the Japanese path of zero inflation, very low interest rates and a big current-account surplus.” By 2022 Thailand will be the first developing country to become an “aged” society, according to the BoT, with more than 14% of its population over 65. The proportion of elderly is rising faster in Thailand than in China. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Sustaining Progress in Transition Countries

Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2018

Cihan Sultanoğlu

Cihan Sultanoğlu is a UN assistant secretary-general and Director of the United Nations Development Programme’s Regional Bureau for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Many countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia have made remarkable progress in recent years, as measured by economic growth and reduction in poverty. But, despite clear gains, the region’s middle-income countries continue to face structural bottlenecks that must be addressed before the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals can be achieved.

NEW YORK – In the World Bank’s most recent “Doing Business” report, half of the Eastern European and Central Asian countries included in the global ranking were among the top 50. As a measure of economic maturity, the report confirms what many in the international development community have long known: the region is ascendant.

Over the last decade, the economies of Eastern Europe and Central Asia have recorded spectacular gains, buttressed by ambitious market and public-sector reforms. The question now is how to ensure that this progress – which has tripled the size of the middle class – is sustained. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wirtschaftsboom am Bosporus: Türkei wächst stärker als China

Posted by hkarner - 29. März 2018

Im Vorjahr ist die türkische Wirtschaft um starke 7,4 Prozent gewachsen, in China lag das Wachstum bei „nur“ 6,9 Prozent.

Nach einer Wachstumsdelle wegen des Putschversuches 2016 hat die Wirtschaft in der Türkei im vergangenen Jahr noch stärker als die in China zugelegt. Die türkische Volkswirtschaft sei 2017 im Jahresvergleich um 7,4 Prozent gewachsen, wie das türkische Statistikamt in Ankara heute, Donnerstag, mitteilte. Der Wert übertraf die Erwartungen von Analysten leicht. Im Jahr zuvor hatte das nachträglich angepasste Wirtschaftswachstum bei 3,2 Prozent gelegen. In China lag das Wachstum der weltweit zweitgrößten Volkswirtschaft 2017 im Jahresvergleich nach offiziellen Angaben bei 6,9 Prozent.

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Langfristiges Wachstum: Ökonomen gegen Naturwissenschaftler

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2018

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

CAMBRIDGE – Die meisten Wirtschaftsprognostiker haben die jüngsten Fortschritte bei der künstlichen Intelligenz (z. B. den durch das selbstlernende Schachprogramm von DeepMind im Dezember demonstrierten Quantensprung) achselzuckend zur Kenntnis genommen. Sie sehen darin keine größeren Auswirkungen auf das längerfristige Wachstum. Dieser Pessimismus ist mit Sicherheit einer der Gründe, warum die realen (inflationsbereinigten) Zinssätze weiter extrem niedrig bleiben, auch wenn der als Stimmungsbarometer geltende Zinssatz zehnjähriger US-Staatsanleihen in den letzten Monaten um einen halben Prozentpunkt gestiegen ist. Liegt der angebotsseitig begründete Pessimismus richtig, dürften die jüngsten massiven Steuersenkungs- und Ausgabepakete in den USA eher zu einem Anstieg der Inflation führen als die Investitionen anzukurbeln.

Es gibt viele Gründe, die aktuelle US-Fiskalpolitik abzulehnen, auch wenn die Senkung der Körperschaftsteuer sinnvoll war (wenn auch nicht in der verabschiedeten Höhe). Schließlich leben wir in einer Zeit steigender Ungleichheit und fallender Einkommensanteile für die Arbeit (im Verhältnis zum Kapital). Die Regierungen müssen mehr und nicht weniger tun, um Einkommen und Vermögen umzuverteilen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Market Dogs That Didn’t Bark

Posted by hkarner - 28. Februar 2018

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

Did February’s equity-price reversal mark the end of the bull market, or was it just a temporary correction? In addressing this question, one must look not just at the stock market, but also at oil prices, long-term US interest rates, and currencies.

LONDON – Three months ago, I argued that rising stock markets around the world were a consequence of improving economic conditions, not a sign of “irrational exuberance.” Since that commentary was published, share prices accelerated upward, and some “irrational exuberance” did start to appear, leading to a sharp fall in early February. Although most stock markets are still well above their levels of last November, the question lingers: Did February’s reversal mark the end of the bull market, or was it just a temporary correction?

The strongest evidence, as Sherlock Holmes might have remarked, comes from the dog that didn’t bark. More precisely, it comes from three vehement guard dogs – oil prices, long-term US interest rates, and currencies – that slept peacefully through the commotion on Wall Street. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Verantwortungslose EZB

Posted by hkarner - 20. Februar 2018

Jürgen Stark

Jürgen Stark is a former Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and former Deputy Governor of the Deutsche Bundesbank.

FRANKFURT – Der jüngste Flash-Crash des Dow Jones Aktien-Index um fast 1.600 Punkte zeigt, wie stark die Finanzmärkte und Wirtschafts-Akteure von der Politik der Zentralbanken abhängig geworden sind. Durch die niedrigen Zinsen und die mengenmäßige Lockerung der Geldpolitik wurden Anreize gesetzt, immer höhere Risiken einzugehen, die nicht adäquat bepreist sind. Je länger diese Politiken fortgesetzt werden, umso größer wird die Bedrohung für die globale Finanzstabilität.

Tatsache ist, dass die ultra-lockere Geldpolitik schon seit langer Zeit nicht mehr angemessen ist. Die Weltwirtschaft, insbesondere die fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften, erfahren eine zunehmend stärkere wirtschaftliche Erholung. Nach dem aktuellen Wirtschaftlichen Ausblick des Internationalen Währungsfonds wird sich das wirtschaftliche Wachstum in den nächsten Quartalen insbesondere in den USA und dem Euro-Raum fortsetzen.

Dennoch befürchten internationale Institutionen, einschließlich des IWF, abrupte Marktkorrekturen, die sich normalerweise vollziehen, wenn sich die Inflations- oder Zinserwartungen ändern. Sie plädieren daher für einen sehr langsamen Ausstieg aus der derzeitigen Geldpolitik. So verzögern die Zentralbanken die Normalisierung der Geldpolitik immer mehr mit der Folge, dass die Vermögenspreise weiter gestiegen und dramatische Marktverzerrungen entstanden sind, die Korrekturen unvermeidlich machen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Where Will We Get the Cash?

Posted by hkarner - 12. Februar 2018

We already knew interest rates were rising. Recent data suggests they could rise significantly more than many expected just a few weeks ago. If so, that will be a big problem for bonds, stocks, and many other assets – not to mention taxpayers who will bear the cost of swelling government debt, consumers who may face inflation, and everybody who will be hurt by a recession.

The combination of a falling stock market and rising interest rates is historically and statistically rare. Normally, when the stock market goes through a correction, interest rates fall. Looking back through history, we see that 1987 and 1994, two years I have been writing about in connection with 2018, were the other unusual years.

I’ve been relatively optimistic on the economy this year, and I still think the year can end well. But given recent events, the path is more challenging now – and the odds of a rough 2019 are growing.

Burn Rate Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Eurozone Set to Extend Post-Crisis Growth Spurt

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2018

Date: 07-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

EU warns of risks including high asset prices in wake of stock rout

BRUSSELS—The European Union raised its forecasts for eurozone growth Wednesday, saying the monetary bloc would build on its fastest expansion since the global economic crisis while warning of risks including high asset prices as steep declines rock world markets.

Gross domestic product in the 19-member eurozone will grow 2.3% in 2018, the EU said, raising its forecast from 2.1% in November. The economy is expected to expand 2% next year, up from 1.9% previously.

The continued expansion marks a return to solid growth, EU officials said, despite a marginal slowdown in the eurozone growth from 2.5% in 2017, which marked the fastest pace in a decade. A global economic acceleration and boost in trade is bolstering activity in Europe, where subdued inflation and the European Central Bank’s monetary policies are poised to stoke the expansion through strong demand and investments.

“Europe’s economy has entered 2018 in robust health,” said Pierre Moscovici, the European commissioner for economic and financial affairs, taxation and customs. “Unemployment and deficits continue to fall and investment is at last rising in a meaningful way. Economic growth is also more balanced than it was a decade ago.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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