Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Growth’

Amerikas ungewöhnliche Konjunkturerholung ist jetzt auch seine längste

Posted by hkarner - 13. Juni 2019

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

LONDON – Im Laufe der kommenden Monate zur Veröffentlichung anstehende Daten werden zeigen, dass die derzeitige wirtschaftliche Expansion in den USA die längste seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen ist. Doch obwohl die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in den USA die anderer hochentwickelter Volkswirtschaften nach wie vor übertrifft, hat dieser Erfolg das von vielen Amerikanern empfundene anhaltende Gefühl wirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit und Frustration bisher nicht vertrieben, und auch die Sorgen über politischen Spielraum zur Reaktion auf die nächste Rezession oder finanzielle Erschütterung mildert es nicht.

Die aktuelle Wirtschaftsexpansion begann Mitte 2009 nach der Finanzkrise von 2008 und der „Großen Rezession“. Beflügelt zunächst durch außergewöhnliche fiskalpolitische Interventionen und eine zuvor undenkbare Geldpolitik, schuf die Konjunktur eine ausreichend starke Grundlage für die Rückkehr des Verbrauchervertrauens und die Erholung der Unternehmensbilanzen. Im Verbund mit sich beschleunigenden Fortschritten bei neuen Technologien ging die weitere Expansion dann weitgehend von Technologie- und Plattformunternehmen aus, die über eine neue „Gig Economy“ präsidierten. Einen zusätzlichen Schub erhielt sie durch wachstumsfreundliche Maßnahmen, zu denen Deregulierungsmaßnahmen und Steuersenkungen gehörten.Angesichts einer US-Arbeitslosenquote von 3,6% ist bei den (inflationsbereinigten) Reallöhnen nun ein Wachstum von 1,6% zu verzeichnen. Und laut den jüngsten Quartalsdaten, die an annualisiertes BIP-Wachstum von 3,1% zeigen, übertrifft die US-Wirtschaftsaktivität jene in Europa und Japan erheblich. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Once again, China’s richest region is pulling ahead of the others

Posted by hkarner - 8. Juni 2019

Date: 06-06-2019
Source: The Economist

The interior had been catching up with the southern coast. No longer

Motivational slogans do not get much blunter than the one hanging over the sewing machines in Li Zhiguo’s factory: “Work hard here to make money, don’t be disliked by your family”. He proudly holds up one of his products, a red chiffon dress with ruffled sleeves. Dozens more are wrapped up, awaiting shipment.

It is a scene that, on the surface, should please Chinese leaders. Mr Li’s factory is in Baiguan, a poor town in the central province of Hunan. The government has long wanted to spur growth deep inside the country, in part by getting low-end industries to leave the prosperous coast and move to places like Baiguan. The money, managers and machines in Mr Li’s factory are almost all transplants from the coast. “There’s advantages to being here. It’s easier to find workers,” he says. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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OECD warnt: Schulden doppelt so hoch wie vor der Krise

Posted by hkarner - 22. Mai 2019

21.05.2019, kurier.at

Viele Risiken: Firmen haben hohe Kredite angehäuft, Handelsstreit bremst, Digitalisierung hilft bisher nur „Superstarfirmen“.

Die vielen Handelskonflikte hinterlassen Spuren. Die Industrieorganisation OECD hat am Dienstag ihre Prognose für das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft 2019 auf 3,2 Prozent gesenkt. Das liegt unter dem Durchschnitt der vergangenen dreißig Jahre.

„Die Aussichten sind weiterhin trübe“, warnte OECD-Chefökonomin Laurence Boone. Sollten die Spannungen zwischen USA und China sich verstärken, würde das globale Wachstum über zwei bis drei Jahre um 0,6 Prozentpunkte geringer ausfallen.

Die OECD warnt überdies vor stark gestiegener Verschuldung im Privatsektor. Weil die Zinsen schon lange tief sind und weniger auf Risiken geachtet wurde, hätten Unternehmen jetzt doppelt so viele Kredite offen wie im Finanzkrisenjahr 2008. So seien Anleihen von fast 13.000 Milliarden Dollar (11.700 Milliarden Euro) ausständig. „Es könnte also zu erneuten Schwierigkeiten an den Finanzmärkten kommen“, so Boone.

Sie bilanziert zudem bisherige Effekte aus der Digitalisierung als „enttäuschend“. Die Technologie besitze zwar enormes Potenzial, damit Unternehmen effizienter arbeiten und die Lebensstandards steigen. Bisher profitiere von den höheren Gewinnen aber „nur eine kleine Gruppe von Superstarfirmen“ , analysiert Boone. Das Lohnwachstum sei schleppend, viele Jobs gerieten unter Druck.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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America’s Illusions of Growth

Posted by hkarner - 15. Mai 2019

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of Columbia’s Center for Sustainable Development and of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. His books include The End of Poverty, Common Wealth, The Age of Sustainable Development, Building the New American Economy, and most recently, A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism.

Many commentators have interpreted buoyant GDP and unemployment data in the United States as vindicating President Donald Trump’s economic policies, and some suggest that his re-election chances have improved as a result. But these indicators fail to measure what really counts for the public.

NEW YORK – National politics in the United States has become enslaved to macroeconomic indicators that have little bearing on true wellbeing. For many commentators, the snapshot growth rate of 3.2% for the first quarter of 2019, coupled with a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.6% in April, implies that President Donald Trump’s economic policies have been vindicated, and some suggest that his re-election chances have improved as a result.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy is out of recession, but for how long?

Posted by hkarner - 14. Mai 2019

Date: 11-05-2019
Source: The Economist

A scrap of good news on the economic front

In most of the 19 euro-zone countries, provisional first-quarter economic growth data offered pleasant surprises. But in Italy they had a special importance. The economy grew by 0.2% compared with the previous quarter, ending a short, shallow recession in the second half of 2018.

The end of the contraction came at a politically delicate moment as the two parties in Giuseppe Conte’s governing coalition battle for votes in the European elections later this month. The hard-right Northern League has barely half as many seats in parliament as the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (m5s). But, under its hyperactive, media-savvy leader, Matteo Salvini, it has overtaken m5s in the polls.

If the League wins more of Italy’s 73 European Parliament seats than its rivals do on May 26th, it will become the dominant coalition partner (many would argue that this has already occurred, since Mr Salvini is so powerful a figure). But a good result could also tempt Mr Salvini to put an end to the League’s relentlessly fractious coalition with the more moderate m5s and force a snap election that would give him the votes needed for a more homogeneously right-wing coalition with the formerly neo-fascist Brothers of Italy and what is left of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China Growth Beats Expectations Thanks to Humming Factories

Posted by hkarner - 18. April 2019

Date: 17-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Many economists prepared for a weaker first-quarter performance

SHANGHAI—China’s economic growth held to a 6.4% rate in the first three months of the year as factory production picked up significantly amid signs authorities worked forcefully to stabilize business following months of weakness.

The 6.4% expansion in China’s economy during the first quarter was the second straight at that level but remained below 2018’s 6.6% full-year rate, according to official data released Wednesday. The pace was slightly higher than what many economists expected and appeared buoyed by a powerful rebound in some key drivers. Industrial production, after a lackluster start to the year, surged 8.5% in March from a year earlier. Retail sales for the quarter were stronger than expected along with property investment.

While China’s economy has been on a slow downtrend this past decade—weighed down by debt and excess capacity—a sharper-than-expected slowdown hit last year, exacerbated by severe trade tensions with the U.S. The government now appears to be stepping up work to arrest the slide. Many economists prepared for a weaker first-quarter performance, and the year’s nadir, on belief that stable activity in consumer and services sectors would be offset by sluggish investment in fixed assets, such as factories and bridges. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japanified World Ahead

Posted by hkarner - 15. April 2019

By John Mauldin

April 12, 2019

Losing Decades
Too Much, Too Fast
A $10 Trillion Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Mastering Private Markets

Regular readers may have noticed me slowly losing confidence in the economy. Your impression is correct and there’s a good reason for it, as I will explain today. The facts have changed so my conclusions are changing, too.

I still think the economy is okay for now. I still see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point this growth phase will end, either in recession or an extended flat period (even flatter than the last decade, which says a lot). And I still think we are headed toward a global credit crisis I’ve dubbed The Great Reset.

What’s evolved is my judgment on the coming slowdown’s severity and duration. I think the rest of the world will enter a period something like Japan endured following 1990, and is still grappling with today. It won’t be the end of the world; Japan is still there, but the little growth it’s had was due mainly to exports. That won’t work when every major economy is in the same position.

Describing this decline as “Japanification” may be unfair to Japan but it’s the best paradigm we have. The good news is it will spread slowly. The bad news is it will end slowly, too. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Future of Economic Growth

Posted by hkarner - 14. April 2019

Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chairman of Chatham House.

Given the failures to foresee the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent weak recovery, it is easy to think that economists have little to offer in the way of predictions. But when it comes to national-level GDP growth, past projections have largely been borne out; even when wrong, they can be used to diagnose structural problems.

MANCHESTER – Last month, I wrote about the between economic theory and real-world economic conditions, and reminded readers that economics is still a social science, despite whatever loftier ambitions its practitioners may have. Nonetheless, when it comes to the specific question of what drives economic growth in the long term, one can still offer rigorous predictions by focusing on just two forces.

Specifically, if one knows how much a country’s working-age population will grow (or shrink), and how much its productivity will increase, one can predict its future growth with considerable confidence. The first variable is reasonably predictable from a country’s retirement and death rates; the second is more uncertain. Indeed, the reported slowdown in productivity across advanced economies since 2008 is widely regarded as an economic mystery.Is it really a mystery, though? Consider the following table, which shows GDP growth since the 1980s for the larger economies, the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), and the “” (N-11) most populous developing countries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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High Debt Hampers Countries’ Response to a Fast-Changing Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 11. April 2019

April 10, 2019, IMF Blog

By Vitor Gaspar, John Ralyea, and Elif Ture

Economic growth is slowing and public debt remains high across the world. Meanwhile, demographic changes and technological advances are reshaping the global economy.

Everyone’s opportunities for a good education, along with their job prospects, healthcare, and retirement income depend on the tax and spending choices governments make as they respond to these challenges.

What should policymakers do?

In the new Fiscal Monitor, we argue that they can take a long-term view to foster higher and more inclusive growth. This means getting their fiscal houses in order by gradually lowering debt to prepare for the next downturn and upgrading fiscal policy to invest in people’s futures. This requires better allocating spending, creating more room in the budget, and improving tax policy.

Preparing for the next downturn Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Weak Spots in Global Financial System Could Amplify Shocks

Posted by hkarner - 11. April 2019

By Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci

In the United States, the ratio of corporate debt to GDP is at record-high levels. In several European countries, banks are overloaded with government bonds. In China, bank profitability is declining, and capital levels remain low at small and medium-size lenders.

Vulnerabilities like these are on the rise across advanced and emerging market economies, according to the IMF’s latest Global Financial Stability Report. They aren’t all setting off alarm bells just yet. But if they continue to build, especially with still-easy financial conditions, they could amplify shocks to the global economy, raising the odds of a severe economic downturn a few years down the road.

With the right mix of policies, countries can sustain growth while keeping vulnerabilities in check.

This poses a dilemma for policymakers seeking to counter a slowing global economy, as discussed in the World Economic Outlook. By taking a patient approach to monetary policy, central banks can accommodate growing downside risks to the economy. But if financial conditions remain easy for too long, vulnerabilities will continue to build, and the odds of a sharp drop in economic growth at some later point will be higher. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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