Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Growth’

Demographic Decline and the End of Capitalism as We Know It

Posted by hkarner - 19. August 2019

Date: 16-08-2019
Source: Foreign Affairs By Zachary Karabell
Subject: The Population Bust

For most of human history, the world’s population grew so slowly that for most people alive, it would have felt static. Between the year 1 and 1700, the human population went from about 200 million to about 600 million; by 1800, it had barely hit one billion. Then, the population exploded, first in the United Kingdom and the United States, next in much of the rest of Europe, and eventually in Asia. By the late 1920s, it had hit two billion. It reached three billion around 1960 and then four billion around 1975. It has nearly doubled since then. There are now some 7.6 billion people living on the planet.

Just as much of the world has come to see rapid population growth as normal and expected, the trends are shifting again, this time into reverse. Most parts of the world are witnessing sharp and sudden contractions in either birthrates or absolute population. The only thing preventing the population in many countries from shrinking more quickly is that death rates are also falling, because people everywhere are living longer. These oscillations are not easy for any society to manage. “Rapid population acceleration and deceleration send shockwaves around the world wherever they occur and have shaped history in ways that are rarely appreciated,” the demographer Paul Morland writes in The Human Tide, his new history of demographics. Morland does not quite believe that “demography is destiny,” as the old adage mistakenly attributed to the French philosopher Auguste Comte would have it. Nor do Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, the authors of Empty Planet, a new book on the rapidly shifting demographics of the twenty-first century. But demographics are clearly part of destiny. If their role first in the rise of the West and now in the rise of the rest has been underappreciated, the potential consequences of plateauing and then shrinking populations in the decades ahead are almost wholly ignored.

The mismatch between expectations of a rapidly growing global population (and all the attendant effects on climate, capitalism, and geopolitics) and the reality of both slowing growth rates and absolute contraction is so great that it will pose a considerable threat in the decades ahead. Governments worldwide have evolved to meet the challenge of managing more people, not fewer and not older. Capitalism as a system is particularly vulnerable to a world of less population expansion; a significant portion of the economic growth that has driven capitalism over the past several centuries may have been simply a derivative of more people and younger people consuming more stuff. If the world ahead has fewer people, will there be any real economic growth? We are not only unprepared to answer that question; we are not even starting to ask it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rise of Electric Cars Threatens to Drain German Growth

Posted by hkarner - 17. August 2019

Date: 16-08-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Industry executives worry that a transition away from fuel-powered vehicles threatens jobs, tax revenue

Workers assemble sports cars at a Porsche factory in Stuttgart-Zuffenhausen, Germany.

STUTTGART, Germany—Concern is rising in Europe’s automobile heartland about the economic impact of the industry’s move to electric vehicles from gasoline-powered cars.

Officials and executives in Germany fear the country’s big car companies and rich ecosystem of suppliers and service providers are insufficiently prepared for the transition, and that their leadership may not be assured in an electric-car world, threatening jobs, tax revenue and even growth.

Assembling electric cars isn’t as complex or labor intensive as making traditional vehicles and relies partly on imported technology. At the same time, China has made rapid forays in electrification and is shaping up as a potentially formidable competitor in the field. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Puzzle of Economic Progress

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2019

Date: 13-08-2019
Source: by Diane Coyle

Diane Coyle is Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge.

Current academic research – into the impact of new technologies, the economics of innovation, and the quality of management, for example – may be providing ever more pieces of the puzzle. But many crucial questions about economic progress remain unanswered, and others have not yet even been properly posed.

CAMBRIDGE – Do we know how economies develop? Obviously not, it seems, or otherwise every country would be doing better than it currently is in these low-growth times. In fact, cases of sustained rapid growth, like Japan beginning in the 1960s, or other Southeast Asian countries a decade later, are so rare that they are often described as “economic miracles.”

Yet when Patrick Collison of software infrastructure company Stripe and Tyler Cowen of George Mason University recently wrote an article in The Atlantic calling for a bold new interdisciplinary “science of progress,” they stirred up a flurry of righteous indignation among academics. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Real Reason for China’s Rise

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2019

Zhang Jun is Dean of the School of Economics at Fudan University and Director of the China Center for Economic Studies, a Shanghai-based think-tank.

The standard account of China’s economic rise focuses on its state capitalism, whereby the government, endowed with huge assets, can pursue a wide-ranging industrial policy and intervene to mitigate risks. This explanation is wrong.

SHANGHAI – China’s rapid economic rise in recent decades has astonished the world. Yet the reasons behind the country’s success are often misunderstood and misinterpreted.

The rise of China widely attributed to its state capitalism, whereby the government, endowed with huge assets, can pursue a wide-ranging industrial policy and intervene to mitigate risks. Accordingly, China owes its success, first and foremost, to the government’s “control” over the entire economy.This explanation is fundamentally wrong. True, China has benefited from having a government with the capacity to implement comprehensive and complementary policies efficiently. With leaders not subject to the short election cycles that characterize Western democracies, China’s central leadership can engage in visionary and comprehensive long-term planning, exemplified by its Five-Year Plans.Moreover, the Chinese state’s power has buttressed its implementation capacity, which dwarfs that of most developing and transitional economies. A strong state – and the social and political stability that it underpins – has been essential to enable China’s rapid advancement in areas like education, health care, infrastructure, and research and development. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Italian Stranglehold

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juni 2019

Date: 17-06-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

The EU could punish Rome for pushing pro-growth policy.

Salvini and DiMaio..

Italian Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini is favored to become the country’s next Prime Minister, and European Union mandarins are improving the euroskeptic’s chances. See how Brussels is handling its latest fiscal dispute with Rome.

The European Commission is on course to impose a fine of up to €3.5 billion on Rome to punish it for breaking EU budget rules. Governments are supposed to keep their fiscal deficit below 3% of gross domestic product and total debt under 60% of GDP. Many EU members violate these strictures, but Rome is unusually bad. Italian debt is expected to reach more than 135% in 2020, and the Commission frets about Rome’s deficit, which ran 2.1% in 2018.

This triggered a fiscal showdown last year, which ended when Rome agreed to make minor changes to its budget and Brussels pretended the numbers would add up. But now the EU complains that Italy’s motley left-right coalition government isn’t abiding by that deal and is teeing up another fiscal battle. A June 5 Commission report recommends opening up an “excess deficit procedure,” though it would take weeks and several bureaucratic hurdles before a fine is imposed. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Making the Euro Area More Resilient Before the Next Recession Hits

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juni 2019

By Shekhar Aiyar, John Bluedorn, and Romain Duval

Growth in the euro area rebounded earlier this year, but it remains fragile, while risks have increased. Now is a good time for euro area economies to strengthen their ability to weather any future economic difficulties.

A new IMF staff paper looks at the resilience of euro area countries and finds that they have had more frequent and severe recessions than other advanced economies over the past 20 years. An even greater cause for concern is that differences between member countries’ growth and unemployment rates after euro area-wide downturns have widened. This widening was most stark following the 2008 global financial crisis. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Amerikas ungewöhnliche Konjunkturerholung ist jetzt auch seine längste

Posted by hkarner - 13. Juni 2019

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

LONDON – Im Laufe der kommenden Monate zur Veröffentlichung anstehende Daten werden zeigen, dass die derzeitige wirtschaftliche Expansion in den USA die längste seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen ist. Doch obwohl die Wirtschaftsentwicklung in den USA die anderer hochentwickelter Volkswirtschaften nach wie vor übertrifft, hat dieser Erfolg das von vielen Amerikanern empfundene anhaltende Gefühl wirtschaftlicher Unsicherheit und Frustration bisher nicht vertrieben, und auch die Sorgen über politischen Spielraum zur Reaktion auf die nächste Rezession oder finanzielle Erschütterung mildert es nicht.

Die aktuelle Wirtschaftsexpansion begann Mitte 2009 nach der Finanzkrise von 2008 und der „Großen Rezession“. Beflügelt zunächst durch außergewöhnliche fiskalpolitische Interventionen und eine zuvor undenkbare Geldpolitik, schuf die Konjunktur eine ausreichend starke Grundlage für die Rückkehr des Verbrauchervertrauens und die Erholung der Unternehmensbilanzen. Im Verbund mit sich beschleunigenden Fortschritten bei neuen Technologien ging die weitere Expansion dann weitgehend von Technologie- und Plattformunternehmen aus, die über eine neue „Gig Economy“ präsidierten. Einen zusätzlichen Schub erhielt sie durch wachstumsfreundliche Maßnahmen, zu denen Deregulierungsmaßnahmen und Steuersenkungen gehörten.Angesichts einer US-Arbeitslosenquote von 3,6% ist bei den (inflationsbereinigten) Reallöhnen nun ein Wachstum von 1,6% zu verzeichnen. Und laut den jüngsten Quartalsdaten, die an annualisiertes BIP-Wachstum von 3,1% zeigen, übertrifft die US-Wirtschaftsaktivität jene in Europa und Japan erheblich. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Once again, China’s richest region is pulling ahead of the others

Posted by hkarner - 8. Juni 2019

Date: 06-06-2019
Source: The Economist

The interior had been catching up with the southern coast. No longer

Motivational slogans do not get much blunter than the one hanging over the sewing machines in Li Zhiguo’s factory: “Work hard here to make money, don’t be disliked by your family”. He proudly holds up one of his products, a red chiffon dress with ruffled sleeves. Dozens more are wrapped up, awaiting shipment.

It is a scene that, on the surface, should please Chinese leaders. Mr Li’s factory is in Baiguan, a poor town in the central province of Hunan. The government has long wanted to spur growth deep inside the country, in part by getting low-end industries to leave the prosperous coast and move to places like Baiguan. The money, managers and machines in Mr Li’s factory are almost all transplants from the coast. “There’s advantages to being here. It’s easier to find workers,” he says. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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OECD warnt: Schulden doppelt so hoch wie vor der Krise

Posted by hkarner - 22. Mai 2019

21.05.2019, kurier.at

Viele Risiken: Firmen haben hohe Kredite angehäuft, Handelsstreit bremst, Digitalisierung hilft bisher nur „Superstarfirmen“.

Die vielen Handelskonflikte hinterlassen Spuren. Die Industrieorganisation OECD hat am Dienstag ihre Prognose für das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft 2019 auf 3,2 Prozent gesenkt. Das liegt unter dem Durchschnitt der vergangenen dreißig Jahre.

„Die Aussichten sind weiterhin trübe“, warnte OECD-Chefökonomin Laurence Boone. Sollten die Spannungen zwischen USA und China sich verstärken, würde das globale Wachstum über zwei bis drei Jahre um 0,6 Prozentpunkte geringer ausfallen.

Die OECD warnt überdies vor stark gestiegener Verschuldung im Privatsektor. Weil die Zinsen schon lange tief sind und weniger auf Risiken geachtet wurde, hätten Unternehmen jetzt doppelt so viele Kredite offen wie im Finanzkrisenjahr 2008. So seien Anleihen von fast 13.000 Milliarden Dollar (11.700 Milliarden Euro) ausständig. „Es könnte also zu erneuten Schwierigkeiten an den Finanzmärkten kommen“, so Boone.

Sie bilanziert zudem bisherige Effekte aus der Digitalisierung als „enttäuschend“. Die Technologie besitze zwar enormes Potenzial, damit Unternehmen effizienter arbeiten und die Lebensstandards steigen. Bisher profitiere von den höheren Gewinnen aber „nur eine kleine Gruppe von Superstarfirmen“ , analysiert Boone. Das Lohnwachstum sei schleppend, viele Jobs gerieten unter Druck.

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America’s Illusions of Growth

Posted by hkarner - 15. Mai 2019

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of Columbia’s Center for Sustainable Development and of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. His books include The End of Poverty, Common Wealth, The Age of Sustainable Development, Building the New American Economy, and most recently, A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism.

Many commentators have interpreted buoyant GDP and unemployment data in the United States as vindicating President Donald Trump’s economic policies, and some suggest that his re-election chances have improved as a result. But these indicators fail to measure what really counts for the public.

NEW YORK – National politics in the United States has become enslaved to macroeconomic indicators that have little bearing on true wellbeing. For many commentators, the snapshot growth rate of 3.2% for the first quarter of 2019, coupled with a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.6% in April, implies that President Donald Trump’s economic policies have been vindicated, and some suggest that his re-election chances have improved as a result.

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