Posted by hkarner - 21. Februar 2017
“We have a system that increasingly taxes work and subsidizes nonwork.”
– Milton Friedman
“You must be the change you wish to see in the world.”
– Mahatma Gandhi
“Real change requires real change.”
– Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich
Today we come to part 3 of my tax reform series. So far, we’ve introduced the challenge and begun to describe the main proposed GOP solution. Today we’ll look at the new and widely misunderstood “border adjustment” idea and talk about both its good and bad points. What follows may make more sense if you have first read part 1 and part 2. Next week we’ll explore what I think would be a far superior option, though one that is based on the spirit of the current proposal. If House leadership thinks they can get the present proposal through (doubtful), then they should stop messing around and do something really controversial by changing the entire terms of engagement. As my friend Newt Gingrich has often told me, “John, real change requires real change.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: BAT, Growth, Mauldin, tax, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 15. Februar 2017
Posted on February 13, 2017 by iMFdirect
In the past two decades, low-income economies have seen a rise in growth, with fewer living in poverty. Yet inequality in many countries has remained virtually unchanged.
A recent IMF paper explains how the design of policies can matter to spread the economic benefits of growth more broadly.
Over the long haul, reforms can indeed yield bridges, banks, firms and fields of grain. But these take time, and the poorest cannot always wait for the transformation without additional help. Hence, in the short run, governments need to complement reform policies with redistribution. For example, they can use targeted cash transfers to farmers who suddenly lose a grain subsidy, a more progressive tax system to distribute burdens more fairly, or more accessible banking services. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Growth, IMF, Inequality | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2017
This topic (BAT) is probably going to affect the state of the world most among all of Trump’s measures! (hfk)By John Mauldin, February 7, 2017
Vizzini: He didn’t fall?! Inconceivable!
Inigo Montoya: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
– From The Princess Bride
“A tariff is a scale of taxes on imports, designed to protect the domestic producer against the greed of his consumer.”
– Ambrose Bierce
“Vast possibilities matured into realities before their very eyes. Nevertheless, they saw nothing but cramped economies struggling with ever-decreasing success for their daily bread.”
– Joseph Schumpeter on the Industrial Revolution
The usual thrust of this letter is economics, finance, and investing. Lately, however, the political process has been invading my normal domain – sometimes to the dismay of some of my readers. I get that politics comes with the territory; and I think everyone, no matter their political persuasion, will agree that taxes, which are political in nature, have a major impact on economics, finance, and investment. And thus commenting on taxes is fair game.
My original intention for this letter was to do an analysis of the Republican tax reform proposals. My associate Patrick Watson and I spent two weeks doing a really deep dive into the proposed reforms. I had the privilege of talking taxes with the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, fellow Texan Kevin Brady, as well as his staff. The chairman was kind enough to allow his remarks to be on the record – but his staff made it clear that they were to be on background. We have also talked with numerous think tanks and other experts across the political spectrum. We’ve actually been able to get information on some of the proposed reforms that, as far as we can tell, isn’t available in anything that’s already out there on the Internet.
A few observations from 30,000 feet – Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Amazon, BAT, china, Current Account Deficit, disintermediation, Gave, Germany, Growth, Mauldin, reserve currency, surplus, tax, Technology, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
President’s appetite for stimulus comes up against budget realities and some fellow Republicans
President Trump’s stated goal for more spending on infrastructure appears out of step with GOP elected officials.
For an economy that isn’t in recession, the U.S. is facing one of the bleakest fiscal outlooks since World War II. One question that President Donald Trump will soon have to decide: How much is he willing to embrace even wider deficits?
The answer will determine whether Mr. Trump’s domestic agenda lives up to markets’ bold expectations, and his own.
Before Mr. Trump does anything, growing budget deficits are already on a course to push federal debt to record levels as a share of gross domestic product. That will make it extremely difficult to make good on promises to cut taxes and boost spending without spilling more red ink.
Unlike past periods, deficits are swelling not because of an economic downturn or a short-term boost in discretionary spending, but because of the costs of caring for an aging population. Medicare and Social Security are the biggest projected drivers of spending. Ten years ago, some 6,700 Americans turned 65 every day. The number is now 9,800 Americans, and it will rise to 11,700 by 2026. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Debt, Fed, Growth, Stimulus, Trump, USA, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017
Experten sind der Meinung, der neue US-Präsident provoziere einen Handelskrieg. Die Auseinandersetzung mit Peking gehe auch an Europa, Osteuropa und Österreich nicht spurlos vorbei.
China´s Präsident Xi Jinping –
Wien. Die Drohgebärden werden von Tag zu Tag extremer: Der neue US-Präsident, Donald Trump, sorgt mit dem Einreiseverbot für Bürger aus sieben muslimischen Ländern für heftige Kritik aus der politischen Öffentlichkeit. Ebenso harsche Reaktionen löst er mit seinen Plänen für Einfuhrzölle auf ausländische Waren aus.
Aber es geht nicht nur um neue Zölle – Hürden im globalisierten Wirtschaftsgefüge: Trump hat just China, das Schwergewicht jenseits des Pazifiks, das einen Handelsüberschuss von 365,7 Milliarden Dollar mit den Vereinigten Staaten aufweist, aufs Korn genommen. China drehe an der Währungsschraube, um seine Exporte billig zu halten, China agiere mit – unfairen – staatlichen Subventionen, China stehle intellektuelles Eigentum: Diese Vorwürfe Trumps blieben in Peking nicht unerwidert. Präsident Xi Jinping hat ganz klar und deutlich dem Protektionismus eine Absage erteilt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: china, Growth, Presse, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2017
ROME – Italy may be the “sick man of Europe” today, but it is not the only country in need of medicine. On the contrary, even the mighty Germany seems to be coming down with something.
Italy is, to be sure, in dire straits. Over the last two decades, annual GDP growth has averaged just 0.46%, and government debt has risen steadily, totaling more than 130% of GDP today. Unemployment has remained persistently high, investment is plummeting, and the banking sector is deeply troubled.
Equally concerning, the number of women of child-bearing age has fallen by nearly two million since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. And the share of active workers with a university education remains at levels barely comparable with other advanced economies.
Given all of this, it should come as no shock that Italy and crisis-plagued Greece are the eurozone’s weakest performers in terms of per capita GDP growth over the last three years. What is surprising is that Germany is the third-weakest performer. Germany is fiscally sound, with a large accumulation of surplus savings. It is also highly competitive in unit-labor-cost terms, enjoys its highest-ever labor participation rates, and benefits from a steady inflow of skilled labor from other parts of Europe. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Fubini, Germany, Growth, Italy, Project Syndicate, Structural Reform | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 26. Januar 2017
Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Academic Board Chairman of the Asia Global Institute in Hong Kong, and Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.
JAN 25, 2017 Project Syndicate
MILAN – Successful economic globalization requires reasonably successful growth patterns in individual countries. That dynamic characterized the 30 years or so after World War II: growth rates were relatively high across a wide range of countries; their benefits were broadly shared within countries; and the rise of developing countries reduced global inequality. This period was arguably the heyday of globalization.
Of course, globalization continued through the 1970s and beyond. But the underlying growth patterns changed. Driven by the labor arbitrage embedded in economic globalization and the rise of disruptive digital technologies, advanced economies’ middle-class manufacturing jobs disappeared, their median incomes stagnated, and job and income polarization grew, even as GDP growth remained strong. This new pattern – which persisted through the 1980s and 1990s, and accelerated after 2000 – caused inequality to rise sharply, weakening the foundations of globalization. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Europe, Growth, Inequality, Populism, Project Syndicate, Spence, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. Januar 2017
Posted on January 24, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Prakash Loungani
Four years ago, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde warned of the dangers of rising inequality, a topic that has now risen to the very top of the global policy agenda.
While the IMF’s work on inequality has attracted the most attention, it is one of several new areas into which the institution has branched out in recent years. A unifying framework for all this work can be summarized in two words: Inclusive growth.
We want growth, but we also want to make sure:
- that people have jobs—this is the basis for people to feel included in society and to have a sense of dignity;
- that women and men have equal opportunities to participate in the economy—hence our focus on gender;
- that the poor and the middle class share in the prosperity of a country—hence the work on inequality and shared prosperity;
- that, as happens, for instance when countries discover natural resources, wealth is not captured by a few—this is why we worry about corruption and governance;
- that there is financial inclusion—which makes a difference in investment, food security and health outcomes; and
- that growth is shared just not among this generation but with future generations—hence our work on building resilience to climate change and natural disasters.
In short, a common thread through all our initiatives is that they seek to promote inclusion—an opportunity for everyone to make a better life for themselves. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Growth, IMF, Inclusion, Inequality, Loungani, WEF | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 20. Januar 2017
Globalization is facing its biggest test. For 40 years, the process of closer integration through the free movement of goods, capital, people, and ideas around the world has recorded many remarkable achievements.
The overall standard of living has never been higher. According to the United Nations, there are more than 200 million fewer hungry people than there were 25 years ago. Also, almost all boys and girls go to school. Meanwhile, life expectancy increased by five years between 2000 and 2015, the fastest increase since the 1960s, according to the World Health Organization.
In other words, the world is flatter—more equal—than it has ever been.
And yet, in the past year, there has been an astonishing backlash, mainly in developed countries. In the United States, the great bulwark of globalization, there is a rising clamor to reverse the trend towards greater integration, signaled by the election of a president who has pledged to unpick free trade agreements and build walls between nations (rather than tear them down). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Bürkner, BCG, Brexit, Elites, Globalization, Growth, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2017
Posted on January 16, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Maurice Obstfeld
Today we released our update to the World Economic Outlook.
An accumulation of recent data suggests that the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016. Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies. Our earlier projection, that world growth will pick up from last year’s lackluster pace in 2017 and 2018, therefore looks increasingly likely to be realized. At the same time, we see a wider dispersion of risks to this short-term forecast, with those risks still tilted to the downside. Uncertainty has risen.
Our central projection is that global growth will rise to a rate of 3.4 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018, from a 2016 rate of 3.1 percent. Much of the better growth performance we expect this year and next stems from improvements in some large emerging market and low income economies that in 2016 were exceptionally stressed. That being said, compared to our view in October, we now think that more of the lift will come from better prospects in the United States, China, Europe, and Japan. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Growth, IMF, Obstfeld, WEO | Leave a Comment »