Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Growth’

Italy is Europe’s leaden-toed boot

Posted by hkarner - 25. März 2017

Date: 23-03-2017
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne

The host of the EU’s 60th anniversary party is the country most likely to bring it down

THE European Union may be a Franco-German construction, but when the project needs a dose of grandiosity it invariably turns to Italy. This weekend the leaders of 27 EU countries (all bar Britain) will convene in Rome’s glorious Palazzo dei Conservatori, beneath 17th-century frescoes and flanked by sculptures of sundry popes, to proclaim their unity—60 years after their forefathers signed the Treaty of Rome, the EU’s founding document, in the same room. In today’s fractious union the symbolism counts for something, even if the declaration the leaders will issue is crushingly bland. Yet there will be a note of irony to the proceedings, for if you ask officials in Brussels or Berlin which country keeps them up at night, the answer is always the same: Italy.

Very little changes here, sighs a local who emigrated as a child and recently returned to Rome. Sadly, that includes the size of the economy. The European Commission forecasts Italian growth at 0.9% this year, the slowest in the euro zone. Since 2008 Italy has been in recession as often as not. Real income per head is lower than when Italy joined the euro in 1999, and could soon be overtaken by zippy Spain. Youth unemployment stands at 38%, and the employment rate is among the lowest in the OECD. No wonder barely half the population of this traditionally pro-European country think the euro was a good idea. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wifo und IHS: Gute Prognosen könnten noch übertroffen werden

Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2017

Österreichs Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute haben heuer gute Prognosen präsentiert. Wifo-Vizechef Marcus Scheiblecker hält sogar ein Wachstum von mehr als zwei Prozent für möglich.

Wifo und IHS glauben, dass ihre guten und stark angehobenen Wachstumsprognosen noch übertroffen werden könnten. Setze sich der Frühindikatoren-Trend fort, könnte das BIP-Plus heuer „ohne weiteres zwei Prozent erreichen“, so IHS-Ökonom Helmut Hofer am Freitag, und Wifo-Vizechef Marcus Scheiblecker hält mehr als die 2-Prozent-Prognose seines Instituts für möglich. Das Institut für Höhere Studien hat seine BIP-Prognose für heuer im Vergleich zu Dezember von 1,4 auf 1,7 Prozent nach oben gesetzt, und das Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut hat seine Erwartung von 1,5 auf 2,0 Prozent angehoben.

Das IHS ist etwa pessimistischer als das Wifo, weil man die Risiken fürs zweite Halbjahr 2017 etwas stärker gewichte, verwies Institutsleiter Martin Kocher auf Frankreich-Wahl, Brexit-Modalitäten, die auch in Österreich immer wieder aufflammende Neuwahldiskussion sowie die US-Entwicklung – denn das alles könnte die Stimmung drücken, so der IHS-Chef: „Im ersten Halbjahr ist und bleibt die Konjunktur gut. Setzt sich das fort, könnten wir auch auf zwei Prozent kommen.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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America’s Confidence Economy

Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2017

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Hans Rosling, population prophet: Five final thoughts

Posted by hkarner - 16. März 2017

By Ruth Alexander and Ben Carter

  • 16 March 2017
  • From the section World

Co-founder of Gapminder.org, which continues his work, he was enthusiastically trying to change old-fashioned notions of the world even as his illness took hold.

In his final BBC interview – for the BBC World Service series Economic Tectonics – the statistician highlighted five key ways that demographics are shaping the world around us.

Why bedrooms are driving economies

Why do I as a professor from public health speaking about health and demography get invited to Goldman Sachs [and] all these big banks around the world?

Because I tell them I can see on my screen when economic growth comes, before you can see it.

In the past, economic growth was driving demographics, and now it’s the other way around.

First, I see decent life coming and I see children born-per-woman drop.

I see the two-child family, and I see the economic growth starting in Vietnam, in Thailand… not only in China. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Latin America’s Barriers to Growth

Posted by hkarner - 16. März 2017

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Maintaining the Positive Momentum of the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 15. März 2017

Posted on by iMFdirect

Lagarde.2015MDPORTRAIT4_114x128By Christine Lagarde

Versions in: عربي (Arabic), Français (French), and Deutsch (German)

Baden-Baden, the German spa town built on ancient thermal springs, is a fitting venue to discuss the health of the global economy during this week’s meeting of the Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors.

Policymakers will likely share a sense of growing optimism, because the recent strengthening of activity suggests that the world economy may finally snap out of its multi-year convalescence. 

Economic prescriptions have played an important part in the recovery, and will continue to do so for some time. Maintaining the positive growth momentum continues to require supportive macroeconomic policies. And the participants at the meetings will need to take action, individually and collectively, to make growth more inclusive and resilient.

Have we reached a turning point? The short answer is yes—at least for now. Growth outturns in the second half of last year were generally solid. Manufacturing and confidence indicators are picking up, and there are signs that global trade volumes are rising along with them. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Schools, Skills and Economic Growth

Posted by hkarner - 11. März 2017

Posted on by iMFdirect

By  iMFdirect

Eric Hanushek is an expert on the relationship between education and economics, and he says the only thing that matters for a country is the skills of its people.

“Countries that have lots of skills grow faster than countries that have low skills, and that’s an easy way to explain what’s going on in Africa and Latin America, where the skills are very low, and the countries are just not growing in the long run.”

Hanushek is the Paul and Jean Hanna Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. In this podcast, he says the methods used for testing skills have been around for decades.

“What we’ve had for the last 50 years is a set of international tests of skills in math and science.  So you take a math problem and walk it around the world and see how different countries do.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The end of “secular stagnation”?

Posted by hkarner - 11. März 2017

Date: 09-03-2017
Source: The Economist

Improving economic data do not necessarily indicate underlying health

IN PERIODS of economic stress all sorts of theories are entertained about the nature of the problem. When better times return, some theories fade from memory. Others linger, however. During the economic mess of the past decade, economists frightened themselves with tales of “secular stagnation”: a nasty condition that dooms its victims to chronically weak growth. Now that the economic outlook is brightening a bit—deflation has been dispatched, and for most advanced economies 2017 is forecast to bring a third consecutive year of economic growth—it is tempting to laugh off the idea of secular stagnation as a bit of crisis-induced hysteria. Tempting, but also premature. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rethinking Productivity Growth

Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2017

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Nationalists and Economic Growth: The Bad and the Good

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2017

Date: 02-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Hungary and Poland prove nationalism need not hamper growth, at least in short run

The economic establishment has watched with growing alarm as a nationalist wave turned British voters against the European Union, swept Donald Trump into the White House, and now gives France’s anti-euro, anti-immigrant National Front a shot at the presidency.

Yet predictions that nationalist policies will upend markets and the economy oversimplify their complicated relationship with economics. On the one hand their opposition to free trade, immigration and foreign investment are all unfriendly to growth in the long run. Yet they often preside over expansionary budgets, easy monetary policy and lower currencies, all of which support growth in the short run. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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