Posts Tagged ‘Growth’
Posted by hkarner - 26. April 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Emmanuel Macron’s rise as heavy favorite in race spurs investors to set aside political worries
The ascension of centrist Emmanuel Macron as the heavy favorite in France’s presidential race spurred investors to set aside the political worries that have long plagued European markets and to make new bets on economic growth.
Mr. Macron is now seen as the leader in May 7’s runoff against second-place finisher Marine Le Pen, whose pledge to dismantle the euro had damped prices of euro assets and the common currency itself.
The former investment banker’s good showing sent stocks and the euro sharply higher while triggering a sharp selloff in German government bonds, which investors had bought as a haven from populist politicians such as Ms. Le Pen. Mr. Macron won the first round with 24% of the vote, according to an official tally, ahead of Ms. Le Pen with 21.3%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: France, Growth, Macron, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 23. April 2017
Source: Foreign Affairs
Increase Funding for Basic Science
In February 2016, scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the California Institute of Technology, or Caltech, joined with the National Science Foundation (NSF) to share some remarkable news: two black holes 1.3 billion light-years away had collided, and the resulting gravitational waves had been “heard” by the twin detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO). This was the first time such waves—ripples in the space-time continuum caused by the violent acceleration of massive objects—had ever been directly observed. Albert Einstein had predicted such waves a century ago, but it was long doubted that instrumentation sensitive enough to confirm their existence could ever be created. It took more than four decades of work by a vast team of scientists to make the impossible possible. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Foreign Affairs, Growth, Innovation, Science, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2017
By Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Direct, 18/4
Momentum in the global economy has been building since the middle of last year, allowing us to reaffirm our earlier forecasts of higher global growth this year and next. We project the world economy to grow at a pace of 3.5 percent in 2017, up from 3.1 percent last year, and 3.6 percent in 2018. Acceleration will be broad based across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies, building on gains we have seen in both manufacturing and trade.
Our new projection for 2017 in the April World Economic Outlook is marginally higher than what we expected in our last update. This improvement comes primarily from good economic news for Europe and Asia, as well as our continuing expectation for higher growth this year in the United States.
Despite these signs of strength, many other countries will continue to struggle this year with growth rates significantly below past readings. Commodity prices have firmed since early 2016, but at low levels, and many commodity exporters remain challenged – notably in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. At the same time, a combination of adverse weather conditions and civil unrest threaten several low-income countries with mass starvation. In Sub-Saharan Africa, income growth could fall slightly short of population growth, but not by nearly as much as last year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Growth, IMF, Obstfeld | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. April 2017
Posted on April 6, 2017 by iMFdirect
By Gaston Gelos and Jay Surti
Versions in Français (French), Русский (Russian), and Español (Spanish)
What happens if advanced economies remain stuck in a long-lasting funk marked by tepid growth, low interest rates, aging populations and stagnant productivity? Japan offers an example of the impact on banks, and our analysis suggests that there could also be far-reaching consequences for insurance companies, pension funds, and asset-management firms.
You might argue that this scenario of economic malaise has already materialized; after all, interest rates and economic growth have been low since the financial crisis in 2008. The question is whether the post-crisis landscape represents a temporary departure from the pace of growth we’ve come to expect since World War II, or whether it’s the start of a new normal.
Notwithstanding the recent increase in long-term yields in some advanced economies, the Japanese experience suggests that we cannot be sure whether an exit from a low-growth/low interest rate trap is imminent or permanent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Gelos, GFSR, Growth, IMF, Japan, Surti | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 5. April 2017
Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.
APR 4, 2017 Project Syndicate
CAMBRIDGE – After nine dreary years of downgrading their GDP forecasts, macroeconomic policymakers around the world are shaking their heads in disbelief: Despite a populist-propelled wave of political tumult, global growth is actually set to outperform expectations in 2017.
It’s not just American exceptionalism. Although US growth is very strong, Europe has been outperforming expectations by more. There is even happy news for emerging markets, which are still bracing for US Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes but have gained a better backdrop against which to adjust.
The broad story behind the global reflation is easy enough to understand. Deep, systemic financial crises lead to deep, prolonged recessions. As Carmen Reinhart and I predicted a decade ago (and as numerous other scholars have since corroborated using our data), periods of 6-8 years of very slow growth are not at all unusual in such circumstances. True, many problems remain, including weak banks in Europe, over-leveraged local governments in China, and needlessly complicated financial regulation in the United States. Nonetheless, the seeds of a sustained period of more solid growth have been planted. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, china, Growth, Populism, Project Syndicate, Rogoff | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 4. April 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Suddenly it’s a world upside down—investors are deserting U.S. growth plays as skepticism about Donald Trump’s agenda rises, while overcapacity-ridden China and aging Japan are looking unexpectedly strong.
Better growth in the world’s second- and third-largest economies, which both posted surprisingly good manufacturing numbers Friday, is great news for Asia and commodity exporters.
It won’t do much to help major developed economies, however, if growth in America and Europe falters along with Mr. Trump’s pro-business agenda.
Better growth in China does contribute in one key way to the so-called Trump trade: It boosts global inflation through higher commodity prices. The close correlation between global commodities and Chinese real-estate investment shows the bulk of the big bounce in prices since early 2016 is due to the cyclical recovery in China, rather than the rhetoric around plans for increased U.S. infrastructure spending. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: china, Growth, Trump, USA, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 30. März 2017
Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. In 2006, he was appointed to President Bush’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and, in 2009, was appointed to President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Currently, he is on the board of directors of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Group of 30, a non-profit, international body that seeks greater understanding of global economic issues.
MAR 29, 2017 Project Syndicate
CAMBRIDGE – After a long and slow recovery from the recession that began a decade ago, the United States economy is now booming. The labor market is at full employment, the inflation rate is rising, and households are optimistic. Manufacturing firms and homebuilders are benefiting from increasing activity. The economy is poised for stronger growth in the year ahead. We no longer hear worries about secular stagnation.
The overall unemployment rate is just 4.7%, while unemployment among college graduates is only 2.4%. Average hourly earnings are 2.8% higher than they were a year ago. The tight labor market and rising wages are inducing some individuals who had stopped looking for work to return to the labor force, boosting the participation rate.
A clear indication that the economy is at full employment is that the rate of inflation is increasing. The “core” consumer price index (which omits volatile energy and food prices) has reached an annual rate of 2.2%, substantially higher than the 1.8% average during the previous three years. During the most recent three months, core inflation rose at a 2.8% annual rate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Feldstein, Growth, Project Syndicate, Recession, Secular stagnation, Unemployment, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 25. März 2017
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne
The host of the EU’s 60th anniversary party is the country most likely to bring it down
THE European Union may be a Franco-German construction, but when the project needs a dose of grandiosity it invariably turns to Italy. This weekend the leaders of 27 EU countries (all bar Britain) will convene in Rome’s glorious Palazzo dei Conservatori, beneath 17th-century frescoes and flanked by sculptures of sundry popes, to proclaim their unity—60 years after their forefathers signed the Treaty of Rome, the EU’s founding document, in the same room. In today’s fractious union the symbolism counts for something, even if the declaration the leaders will issue is crushingly bland. Yet there will be a note of irony to the proceedings, for if you ask officials in Brussels or Berlin which country keeps them up at night, the answer is always the same: Italy.
Very little changes here, sighs a local who emigrated as a child and recently returned to Rome. Sadly, that includes the size of the economy. The European Commission forecasts Italian growth at 0.9% this year, the slowest in the euro zone. Since 2008 Italy has been in recession as often as not. Real income per head is lower than when Italy joined the euro in 1999, and could soon be overtaken by zippy Spain. Youth unemployment stands at 38%, and the employment rate is among the lowest in the OECD. No wonder barely half the population of this traditionally pro-European country think the euro was a good idea. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Economist, Euro, Europe, Growth, Italy, M5S | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2017
Österreichs Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute haben heuer gute Prognosen präsentiert. Wifo-Vizechef Marcus Scheiblecker hält sogar ein Wachstum von mehr als zwei Prozent für möglich.
Wifo und IHS glauben, dass ihre guten und stark angehobenen Wachstumsprognosen noch übertroffen werden könnten. Setze sich der Frühindikatoren-Trend fort, könnte das BIP-Plus heuer „ohne weiteres zwei Prozent erreichen“, so IHS-Ökonom Helmut Hofer am Freitag, und Wifo-Vizechef Marcus Scheiblecker hält mehr als die 2-Prozent-Prognose seines Instituts für möglich. Das Institut für Höhere Studien hat seine BIP-Prognose für heuer im Vergleich zu Dezember von 1,4 auf 1,7 Prozent nach oben gesetzt, und das Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut hat seine Erwartung von 1,5 auf 2,0 Prozent angehoben.
Das IHS ist etwa pessimistischer als das Wifo, weil man die Risiken fürs zweite Halbjahr 2017 etwas stärker gewichte, verwies Institutsleiter Martin Kocher auf Frankreich-Wahl, Brexit-Modalitäten, die auch in Österreich immer wieder aufflammende Neuwahldiskussion sowie die US-Entwicklung – denn das alles könnte die Stimmung drücken, so der IHS-Chef: „Im ersten Halbjahr ist und bleibt die Konjunktur gut. Setzt sich das fort, könnten wir auch auf zwei Prozent kommen.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Austria, Brexit, Growth, IHS, Presse, Trump, WIFO | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2017
Mohamed A. El-Erian
Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.
MAR 20, 2017 Project Syndicate
LAGUNA BEACH – Financial markets seem convinced that the recent surge in business and consumer confidence in the US economy will soon be reflected in “hard” data, such as GDP growth, business investment, consumption, and wages. But economists and policymakers are not so sure. Whether their doubts are vindicated will matter for both the United States and the world economy.
Donald Trump’s election as US president has triggered a surge in positive economic sentiment, because he pledged that his administration would aggressively pursue the policy trifecta of deregulation, tax cuts and reform, and infrastructure construction. Republican majorities in both houses of Congress reinforced the positive sentiment, as they signaled that Trump would not face the kind of paralyzing gridlock that Barack Obama confronted for most of his presidency. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Animal Spirits, El-Erian, Growth, Irrational Exuberance, Keynes, Project Syndicate, Shiller, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »