Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Growth’

Three Scenarios for the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 11. Oktober 2017

The International Monetary Fund, which in recent years had characterized global growth as the “new mediocre,” recently upgraded its World Economic Outlook. But is the IMF right to think that the recent growth spurt will continue over the next few years, or is a temporary cyclical upswing about to be subdued by new tail risks?

NEW YORK – For the last few years, the global economy has been oscillating between periods of acceleration (when growth is positive and strengthening) and periods of deceleration (when growth is positive but weakening). After over a year of acceleration, is the world headed toward another slowdown, or will the recovery persist?

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OECD Indicators Show U.K., Russia as Weak Spots

Posted by hkarner - 11. Oktober 2017

Date: 10-10-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Global economy is set for strong growth into 2018

The global economy is set for continued strong growth into 2018, but the U.K. and Russia are likely to miss out, according to leading indicators released Monday by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The Paris-based research body’s gauges of future activity, based on data for August, pointed to faster growth in China, Italy and Brazil, while the strong growth experienced over recent months is set to continue in the U.S., the eurozone as a whole and Japan. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Growth Without Industrialization?

Posted by hkarner - 11. Oktober 2017

Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy and Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science. His newest book Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy will be published in Fall 2017.

Low-income African countries can sustain moderate rates of productivity growth into the future, on the back of steady improvements in human capital and governance. But the evidence suggests that, without manufacturing gains, the growth rates brought about recently by rapid structural change are exceptional and may not last.

CAMBRIDGE – Despite low world prices for the commodities on which they tend to depend, many of the world’s poorest economies have been doing well. Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth has slowed precipitously since 2015, but this reflects specific problems in three of its largest economies (Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa). Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Rwanda are all projected to achieve growth of 6% or higher this year. In Asia, the same is true of India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

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Can Macron’s „Fire and Fury“ Lead a Renaissance for Europe?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Oktober 2017

Date: 06-10-2017
Source: YaleGlobal

Over the past decade, France as Europe’s third largest economy has not pursued an ambitious agenda as a member of the European Union. Likewise, resistance to political reforms has led to tepid economic growth hovering around 1 percent with only a few countries faring worse. President Emmanuel Macron, rejecting nationalism and embracing the potential of the European Union, may revitalize the French role. “Macron has moved to a dual strategy,” explains François Godement, a senior policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Use European needling to push domestic reforms, leverage these reforms to lobby the entire European Union for deeper integration, and needle Germany in the direction of federal economic governance for Europe.” Moving swiftly, Macron offers numerous policy proposals, pointedly avoiding treaty changes or mutualizing members’ past debts. Critics grumble about a jumble of policies, and Godement concludes that careful diplomacy is required in convincing other EU members, including Germany, that sticking with the status quo, avoiding reforms, will lead to Europe’s failure. – YaleGlobal

Macron, avoiding treaty changes, moves swiftly in proposing reforms to revitalize the European Union and France’s role
François Godement Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wifo: Österreichs Aufschwung steht auf breiter Basis

Posted by hkarner - 25. September 2017

25. September 2017, 11:57

Die Konjunkturforscher bestätigen ein reales Plus von 0,8 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorquartal. Österreich wächst somit so schnell wie der Euroraum, aber langsamer als die EU-28

Wien – Die heimische Wirtschaft hat heuer im zweiten Vierteljahr ihr dynamisches Wachstum fortgesetzt. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) lag real um 0,8 Prozent über dem Vorquartal, bestätigte das Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut am Montag. Für das vorhergehende Vierteljahr hat das Wifo das BIP-Plus nachträglich leicht auf 0,9 Prozent angehoben. „Der Aufschwung steht auf breiter Basis, sowohl die Binnennachfrage als auch die Exporte stiegen“, erklärte das Wifo in einer Aussendung: „Die Dynamik der Industriekonjunktur verstärkte sich zuletzt, auch von der Bauwirtschaft kamen positive Impulse.“

Österreich im Euroraum-Schnitt

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Trump’s 3% Growth for the 1%

Posted by hkarner - 13. September 2017

Kenneth Rogoff

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

Even if US President Donald Trump hits his growth targets in 2018 and 2019 – and he just might – only the stock market may be cheering. Policies that produced more broadly shared and environmentally sustainable growth would be far better than policies that perpetuate current distributional trends and exacerbate many Americans’ woes.

CAMBRIDGE – US President Donald Trump has boasted that his policies will produce sustained 3-4% growth for many years to come. His prediction flies in the face of the judgment of many professional forecasters, including on Wall Street and at the Federal Reserve, who expect that the US will be lucky to achieve even 2% growth. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ökonom Schulmeister: „Die Politik hat sich entmündigen lassen“

Posted by hkarner - 11. September 2017

InterviewGerald John, 11. September 2017, 13:38 derstandard.at

Wirtschaftsforscher Stephan Schulmeister sieht Europa in einer Strangulierungskrise – und fürchtet, dass die Leidtragenden in Österreich ihren Metzger einmal mehr selbst wählen

STANDARD: Als Ökonom versuchen Sie seit 35 Jahren, wirtschaftspolitische Fehlentwicklungen aufzeigen. Hat’s etwas genutzt?

Schulmeister: Eher wenig, zumal meine Grunddiagnose ja lautet, dass die Politik seit Anfang der 70er-Jahre nach einer falschen Navigationskarte steuert.

STANDARD: Inwiefern?

Schulmeister: Begonnen hat es mit der Liberalisierung der Finanzmärkte. Seither schwanken Rohstoffpreise, Aktienkurse und Wechselkurse massiv, was Investitionen in die Realwirtschaft enorm erschwert. Verständlicherweise haben sich viele Unternehmer auf Finanzspekulationen verlegt, weil sie dank der Kursschwankungen attraktiv sind. Das allein bremst bereits die Wirtschaft und lässt die Arbeitslosigkeit steigen. Wenn dann auch noch der Staat mit Sparprogrammen die Nachfrage einschränkt, führt das ein System immer tiefer in den Abgrund. Europa hat seit zehn Jahren kein nennenswertes Wachstum mehr erreicht. Der Kontinent steckt in einer historisch einzigartigen Krise – und da setzen die Rechtspopulisten an, indem sie die soziale Wärme der Volksgemeinschaft versprechen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Manufacturing Sector Starts Growing!

Posted by hkarner - 9. September 2017

Tuesday, September 5, 2017, Observing Greece

The latest report by IHS Markit about the Greek manufacturing sector has got to be the best news in ages! It says that:

* the Greek manufacturing sector growth, i. e. the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), climbed to the highest level since August of 2008!
* it was bolstered by BOTH domestic and foreign demand!
* and the rate of jobs growth was the sharpest in over 17-1/2 years!

I am reminded of an article which a wrote 4 months ago, titled „The Gut Says: ‚Greece Is On The Rebound!‚“

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Central Bankers’ Shifting Goalposts

Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2017

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China’s Shift to City-Led Growth

Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2017

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