Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Growth’

A Global Economy Without a Cushion

Posted by hkarner - 29. Januar 2020

Stephen S. Roach, a faculty member at Yale University and former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

From 1990 to 2008, annual growth in world trade was fully 82% faster than world GDP growth. Now, however, reflecting the unusually sharp post-crisis slowdown in global trade growth, this cushion has shrunk dramatically, to just 13% over the 2010-19 period, leaving the world economy more vulnerable to all-too-frequent shocks.

NEW HAVEN – With the benefit of full-year data, only now are we becoming aware of the danger the global economy narrowly avoided in 2019. According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest estimates, world GDP grew by just 2.9% last year – the weakest performance since the outright contraction in the depths of the global financial crisis in 2009 and far short of the 3.8% pace of post-crisis recovery over the 2010-18 period.

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Has the World Economy Reached Peak Growth?

Posted by hkarner - 17. Januar 2020

Jim O’Neill, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management and a former UK Treasury Minister, is Chair of Chatham House.

Whether or not the 2010s were a „lost decade,“ one thing is clear: many countries fell short of their potential, possibly squandering their last best shot of registering strong GDP growth. In the decade ahead, demographic realities will catch up to China and the West, and the world will need a productivity miracle to offset the effects.

LONDON – At the start of a new decade, many commentators are understandably focused on the health of the global economy. GDP growth this decade most likely will be lower than during the teens, barring a notable improvement in productivity in the West and China, or a sustained acceleration in India and the largest African economies.

Until we have final fourth-quarter data for 2019, we won’t be able to calculate global GDP growth for the 2010-2019 decade. Still, it is likely to be per year, which is similar to the growth rate for the 2000s, and higher than the 3.3% growth of the 1980s and 1990s. That slightly stronger performance over the past two decades is due almost entirely to China, with India playing a modestly expanding role.Average annual growth of 3.5% for 2010-2019 means that many countries fell short of their potential. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Another lacklustre year of economic growth lies ahead

Posted by hkarner - 4. Januar 2020

Date: 02‑01‑2020

Source: The Economist

Better than 2019, but not much

GLOBAL GROWTH in 2019 was the slowest since the financial crisis of 2008‑09. The world’s GDP rose by roughly 2.2%. This year will be little better, according to the latest estimates from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a sister company of The Economist. The EIU forecasts that the global economy will expand by 2.4% in 2020.

Rich economies are expected to grow at roughly the same lacklustre pace as they did in 2019—the euro zone’s, almost exactly the same: 1.3%, against 1.2% last year. The EIU sees a fairly sharp slowdown in America, from 2.3% to 1.7%, as trade tensions continue to depress trade and investment. A continuation of the global slowdown in manufacturing will also drag down growth worldwide. A no‑deal Brexit could make matters worse, for Britain and its trading partners.

Developing countries, meanwhile, will see slightly faster growth in 2020 (although in the biggest, China, the rate will fall a little, from 6.1% to 5.9%). Vietnam’s GDP is forecast to grow by 6.7% and India’s by 6.1%. Guyana, which will begin earning revenue from offshore oil reserves in 2020, is predicted to clock up a stunning 35%. Yet the EIU says that much of the improvement in emerging‑market growth will be the result not of stronger expansions, but shallower recessions. Argentina’s economy, for example, is forecast to contract by 2.5%, having shrunk by 3.3% in 2019. Venezuela’s is expected to suffer a 20.5% decline, after shrivelling by 36.2% last year. Indeed, according to the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), about 70% of the projected pick‑up in global growth in 2020 will come from countries that are either underperforming or in “severe distress”.

Governments have plenty of scope to boost output by pursuing sensible policies and abandoning foolish ones. They may not help. The biggest threat to growth continues to be the Sino‑American trade war (which the IMF reckons could slash global GDP by 0.8% in 2020). In December President Donald Trump announced a “phase one” deal with China, which would see America roll back some tariffs in exchange for Chinese concessions including higher purchases of agricultural goods. But some caution is in order, even if the deal is signed this month as planned. Tensions will remain, and Mr Trump is not famed for his consistency. After a similar agreement fell apart last May, he tweeted: “Tariffs will make our Country MUCH STRONGER, not weaker. Just sit back and watch!”

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2019 in Review: The Global Economy Explained in 5 Charts

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2019

By Gita Gopinath, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Malhar Nabar

Global growth this year recorded its weakest pace since the global financial crisis a decade ago, reflecting common influences across countries and country-specific factors.

Rising trade barriers and associated uncertainty weighed on business sentiment and activity globally. In some cases (advanced economies and China), these developments magnified cyclical and structural slowdowns already under way.

Further pressures came from country-specific weakness in large emerging market economies such as Brazil, India, Mexico, and Russia. Worsening macroeconomic stress related to tighter financial conditions (Argentina), geopolitical tensions (Iran), and social unrest (Venezuela, Libya, Yemen) rounded out the difficult picture. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Economic Growth Is the Answer

Posted by hkarner - 14. Dezember 2019

Date: 12‑12‑2019

Source: Project Syndicate by Michael J. Boskin

Michael J. Boskin is Professor of Economics at Stanford University and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He was Chairman of George H. W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1989 to 1993, and headed the so‑called Boskin Commission, a congressional advisory body that highlighted errors in official US inflation estimates. 

While rising inequality – a problem that the data suggest is real but overstated – has moved to the center of public debate, the key issue is that living standards are not improving fast enough among those who are falling behind. It is this fact that is fueling much of the political tension across advanced economies today. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Is Growth Passé?

Posted by hkarner - 12. Dezember 2019

Project Joseph E. Stiglitz

Joseph E. Stiglitz, University Professor at Columbia University, is the co-winner of the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize, former chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, and former Chief Economist of the World Bank. His most recent book is People, Power, and Profits: Progressive Capitalism for an Age of Discontent.

Some suggest that the Paris climate agreement’s target for limiting global warming can be achieved only by stopping economic expansion. But there is ample room to change the quality of growth and significantly reduce its environmental impact without condemning billions of people to lives of deprivation.

NEW YORK – It’s clear: we are living beyond our planet’s limits. Unless we change something, the consequences will be dire. Should that something be our focus on economic growth? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die nächste Dekade stellt die Weltwirtschaft auf den Kopf

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2019

Date: 09‑12‑2019

Source: Die Welt Von Frank Stocker

Asia, China, Hong Kong, A man wearing a back pack, stands on a high elevated rocky viewpoint on Victoria Peak, overlooking the Hong Kong skyline at dawn, looking out over the illuminated city as the night transforms into early in the morning.

In der nächsten Dekade wird sich die Rangliste der wichtigsten Volkswirtschaften fundamental verändern. Die Bundesrepublik riskiert, zwischen zwei Fronten zu geraten. Zwar gäbe es einen Ausweg, doch Experten zweifeln an Deutschlands Fähigkeiten.

Nur noch wenige Wochen, dann beginnt ein neues Jahrzehnt. Die Zwanziger des letzten Jahrzehnts waren eine Zeit des Aufschwungs und wurden daher später als „die Goldenen Zwanziger“ bezeichnet. Zugleich begann damals aber auch der Übergang des globalen wirtschaftlichen Machtzentrums vom britischen Empire auf die USA.

New York etablierte sich als zweiter wichtiger Finanzplatz, von dem dann am Ende des Jahrzehnts die Schockwellen des großen Börsencrashs mit all seinen Folgen ausgingen. Ob die Zwanziger auch diesmal golden werden, ist ungewiss. Sicher ist jedoch, dass sich in der kommenden Dekade erneut ein Führungswechsel in der Weltwirtschaft vollziehen wird.

China wird die USA überholen, und die Konkurrenz der beiden Mächte wird die Welt vor eine Zerreißprobe stellen. Deutschland wird darunter besonders leiden. Zugleich werden weitere Machtzentren in Ländern entstehen, die bisher kaum jemand im Auge hat.

Seit Jahrzehnten sind die USA die größte Volkswirtschaft der Erde, im vergangenen Jahr betrug die Wirtschaftsleistung rund 20,5 Billionen Dollar, Chinas Bruttoinlandsprodukt lag bei rund zwei Dritteln davon. Allerdings: Vor zehn Jahren umfasste Chinas Wirtschaftskraft weniger als ein Drittel jener der USA, das Reich der Mitte wächst wesentlich schneller.

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Wifo erwartet schwächeres Wachstum bis 2024

Posted by hkarner - 7. November 2019

05.11.2019 um 09:11, diepresse.com

Das Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitut (Wifo) erwartet für die kommenden fünf Jahre (2020-24) ein etwas schwächeres Wirtschaftswachstum – weniger als zuletzt prognostiziert und auch weniger als im Zeitraum 2014-19. Weil auch Österreich die weltweite Konjunkturabkühlung zu spüren bekommt, wird sich das Wachstum im Schnitt auf 1,4 Prozent pro Jahr abbremsen, bis 2019 waren es im Schnitt 1,9 Prozent.

Vor allem in den Jahren 2020 und 2021 stützen deutliche Einkommenssteigerungen bei den privaten Haushalten die Konsumausgaben der Verbraucher „und wirken dem internationalen Sog entgegen und mildern die wirtschaftliche Abkühlung in Österreich“, erklärte das Wifo am Dienstag zu seiner neuen Mittelfrist-Prognose. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s Disturbing Vision

Posted by hkarner - 27. Oktober 2019

By John Mauldin, October 25, 2019

Hong Kong and the NBA
China’s Vision of Victory
Clashing Values

And once you see it, you cannot unsee it.

I’m not alone. Here is what we are observing at macro scale:

That it has been common knowledge—something we all knew that we all knew—since the Nixon years that by simply exporting capitalism and free enterprise, we would unshackle the forces of freedom in China.

That this common knowledge is [now] breaking.

Today, we all know that we all know that the influence of the Chinese Communist Party over what you and I do has been aided, not thwarted, by the nominal Chinese embrace of capitalism. I think that this—not the NBA, or Hearthstone, or Disney, but common knowledge about the distorting effects of concentrated power on the efficiency of market outcomes—is the real main event.     

—Rusty Guinn, Epsilon Theory Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can the good run of central Europe’s economies last?

Posted by hkarner - 27. Oktober 2019

Date: 26-10-2019
Source: The Economist

The extremely open economies are vulnerable to external shocks

Fifteen years after they joined the eu, the four “Visegrad” states of central Europe (the v4) can be prouder of their economic achievements than of their patchy record on political reform. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have increased their levels of gdp per head dramatically, and are converging with their mighty neighbour Germany. The Czechs are the richest, with a gdp per head that is 73% of Germany’s, followed by Slovakia with 63% and Hungary and Poland with around 57% each—and the gap continues to close, as their growth outpaces that of the behemoth (see chart).

Four main external forces have driven the remarkable successes of the four extremely open v4 economies. The first is their access to generous subsidies from the eu, which make up a sizeable chunk of their respective national incomes. Second is the munificent flow of remittances from millions of expat v4 citizens who now live and work in the eu, especially in Germany, Austria or Britain. A benevolent recent economic environment has also helped, especially the success of the German economy, by far their most important trading partner and the biggest or second-biggest investor in each country. And lastly, the four all started from a low base, enabling them to serve as cheap workshops for more developed economies. The danger is that all four of these factors are now petering out. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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