Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Growth’

Die Verbesserung der wirtschaftlichen Vergangenheit

Posted by hkarner - 8. August 2018

Vincent Reinhart

Vincent Reinhart is Chief Economist and Investment Strategist at BNY Mellon Asset Management North America Corporation.

CAMBRIDGE – Trockene Berichte einer Statistikbehörde rauben einem nur selten den Atem, aber die jüngste Veröffentlichung über die volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung der Vereinigten Staaten vom US-Büro für Ökonomische Analyse (BEA) ist eine Ausnahme, die die Regel bestätigt. Immerhin handelt es sich hier um den umfassenden Bottom-Up-Fünfjahresbericht der BEA über Einkommen, Produktion und Preise, der bis in die Model-T-Tage der wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten zurückreicht.

Kämpft man sich durch die Details des Berichts, fallen einem die leicht verbesserten Aussichten für das mittelfristige Wachstum auf. Darüber hinaus deuten die Daten über die persönlichen Ersparnisse auf eine geringere Anfälligkeit und stärkere Widerstandskraft des Sektors der Privathaushalte hin. Andererseits ändert der Bericht nichts an den beiden gähnenden staatlichen Löchern – dem Zwillingsdefizit in der Haushalts- und Leistungsbilanz.

Wir Ökonomen müssen nach diesem Bericht unsere Einschätzung der US-Wirtschaft ändern. Erst einmal gibt es zwei gute Nachrichten: Nicht nur stieg das reale BIP im zweiten Quartal 2018 aufs Jahr hochgerechnet um 4,1%, sondern auch die Produktionsdaten für das erste Quartal wurden etwas nach oben angepasst, und dem ging ein deutlich höheres Einkommenswachstum voraus. Der Nettoeffekt dieser Entwicklungen ändert zwar nichts am Gesamtbild – noch immer haben die USA sechs Jahre gebraucht, um sich von der Großen Rezession zu befreien – aber der Wachstumstrend (gemittelt aus Produktion und Einkommen, was eine zuverlässigere Messzahl ergibt als einzeln betrachtet) war schneller als bisher angenommen. Dies ist bedeutsam, weil kleine Steigerungen der Wachstumsrate aufgrund der Aufzinsung langfristig große Vorteile bringen.

Und zweitens, was noch wichtiger ist: Das zusätzliche Haushaltseinkommen wurde nicht durch neue Ausgaben aufgezehrt. Nominal betrachtet hat sich das Sparniveau der Haushalte verglichen mit den vier Vorquartalen fast verdoppelt. Relativ zum verfügbaren Einkommen liegt die persönliche Sparquote nun nicht mehr bei den 3,2% vom Mai, sondern bei 6,8%. Darüber hinaus verlief sie in den letzten fünf Jahren nicht, wie bisher vermutet wurde, steil abwärts, sondern auf einem Niveau von über 6% seitwärts. Die Anpassungen nach oben reichen sogar noch weiter zurück. Seit Mitte der 1990er liegen die prozentualen Unterschiede zwischen den ursprünglichen und den aktualisierten Daten für nominale Privatersparnisse im zweistelligen Bereich. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Are Trump’s Policies Hurting Long-Term US Growth?

Posted by hkarner - 7. August 2018

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

When it comes to economic performance, US presidents have considerably more influence over long-term trends than over short-term fluctuations. And it is by this standard that Donald Trump’s administration should be judged.

CAMBRIDGE – President Donald Trump regularly thumps his chest and claims credit for each new uptick of the fast-growing US economy. But when it comes to economic performance, US presidents have considerably more influence over long-term trends than over short-term fluctuations.

To be sure, Trump’s tax cuts and spending hikes have provided some extra short-term stimulus. So too, apparently, have foreign buyers of US products such as soybeans, who are rushing to stock up before the tariff war fully heats up. Still, it is not easy to speed up a $20 trillion economy, even by running a budget deficit of nearly $1 trillion, as Trump’s administration is doing. In fact, short-term fluctuations in business inventories have arguably held down growth as much as other factors have temporarily propped it up. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Hiobsbotschaft für Rom: Wachstum bremst sich ein

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juli 2018

29. Juli 2018, 18:20  derstandard.at

Italiens Wirtschaft wächst langsamer. Mit dem Bankenverband ABI hat nun das vierte Institut die Prognose geschwächt

Mailand – Hiobsbotschaft für Italiens Regierung: Das Wirtschaftswachstum verlangsamt sich. Der Bankenverband ABI (Associazione Bancaria Italiana) hat die Wachstumsprognose für 2018 bis 2010 von ursprünglich 1,5 auf 1,3 Prozent pro Jahr gesenkt. Nach dem Industriellenverband Confindustria, der Notenbank Banca d’Italia und dem Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) sagte am Wochenende die vierte Institution reduziertes Wachstum voraus. Die Gründe für die Abschwächung sind zwei Monate nach Antritt der neuen Regierung aus Lega und Fünf-Sterne-Bewegung teils hausgemacht: Vizepremier und Industrieminister Luigi Di Maio will wichtige Infrastrukturprojekte stoppen und Verträge auflösen. So soll der Kaufvertrag für das Stahlwerk Ilva rückgängig gemacht und das mit den Franzosen vereinbarte Superschnellbahnprojekt TAV zwischen Turin und Lyon abgebrochen werden. Das verunsichert ausländische Investoren und wird Rom auch teuer zu stehen kommen. Allein der TAV-Stopp würde zwei Milliarden Euro an Rückzahlung erfordern, die von der EU bereits finanziert wurden. Dabei braucht das Land Projekte, um den Rückstand zu anderen EU-Ländern aufzuholen.

Arbeitsmarkt schwächelt

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Five Questions for the European Central Bank’s Meeting

Posted by hkarner - 27. Juli 2018

Date: 26-07-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

ECB isn’t expected to raise interest rates soon, but Mario Draghi might offer some clues on the bank’s next steps

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi .

The European Central Bank is shifting its attention to an old-fashioned policy tool: interest rates.

No sooner had the bank moved last month to phase out its giant bond-buying program than officials were discussing the likely timing of an interest-rate increase, the ECB’s first in more than seven years.

There is no rush. The ECB says it expects to wait at least a year before raising its key interest rate, currently minus 0.4%, underscoring a divergence with the Federal Reserve, which is expected to increase rate four times this year.

That reflects differences in economic growth: U.S. data on Friday is expected to show the world’s largest economy expanded more than 4% at an annualized pace during the second quarter. That is probably more than double the pace of the eurozone economy, whose second-quarter growth figures will be published on Tuesday. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump May Kill the Global Recovery

Posted by hkarner - 20. Juli 2018

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

In a sharp departure from this time last year, the global economy is now being buffeted by growing concerns over US President Donald Trump’s trade war, fragile emerging markets, a slowdown in Europe, and other risks. It is safe to say that the period of low volatility and synchronized global growth is behind us.

NEW YORK – How does the current global economic outlook compare to that of a year ago? In 2017, the world economy was undergoing a synchronized expansion, with growth accelerating in both advanced economies and emerging markets. Moreover, despite stronger growth, inflation was tame – if not falling – even in economies like the United States, where goods and labor markets were tightening.

Stronger growth with inflation still below target allowed unconventional monetary policies either to remain in full force, as in the eurozone and Japan, or to be rolled back very gradually, as in the US. The combination of strong growth, low inflation, and easy money implied that market volatility was low. And with the yields on government bonds also very low, investors’ animal spirits were running high, boosting the price of many risky assets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Nationalism, Immigration, and Economic Success

Posted by hkarner - 19. Juli 2018

Jason Furman

Jason Furman, Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, was Chairman of President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers from 2013-2017.

There can be no question that immigration provides a net economic benefit to advanced economies, particularly those experiencing a retirement boom. But as long as anti-immigrant sentiment dictates the political narrative, growth will suffer, and resurgent populist forces will grow stronger.

CAMBRIDGE – One of the central challenges facing the world’s advanced economies is slowing growth. Over the last decade, growth rates in the advanced economies have averaged 1.2%, down from an average of 3.1% during the previous 25 years.

History shows that slower economic growth can make societies less generous, less tolerant, and less inclusive. So, it stands to reason that the past decade of sluggish growth has contributed to the surge of a damaging form of populist nationalism that is taking hold in a growing number of countries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China Shifts Gears to Support Economic Growth Amid Trade Conflict With U.S.

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juli 2018

Date: 17-07-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Quarterly GDP expanded 6.7%, still within Beijing leaders’ comfort zone

Beijing is encouraging commercial banks to ramp up lending for subway and other railway projects.

BEIJING—Fall-offs in factory output and investment in buildings, machinery and such are weighing on China’s growth, complicating Beijing’s task in managing the world’s second-largest economy amid a trade conflict with the U.S.

The Chinese economy clocked a 6.7% expansion rate in the second quarter from a year earlier, down slightly from 6.8% in the January-March period, the statistics bureau reported Monday. While that rate is within Chinese leaders’ comfort zone, some economists said more troubling are the drop-offs in business activity and domestic demand.

Industrial output rose 6% in June from a year earlier, markedly down from a pace of 6.8% in May. Meanwhile, investment in fixed assets grew 6% in the first half of the year—a notch down from the 6.1% rate in the first five months and a level not seen since the late 1990s.

The slack is partly due to a government campaign against debt that has made businesses skittish about spending. While Beijing is already shifting gears to support growth—and fend off any ill-effects from the escalating trade fight with the U.S.—some economists expect the slowdown to worsen in coming months before the lingering effects of the credit-tightening dissipate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Problem With Innovation: The Biggest Companies Are Hogging All the Gains

Posted by hkarner - 17. Juli 2018

Date: 16-07-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Jason Douglas,  Jon Sindreu and  Georgi Kantchev

Economists trying to explain a long-term slowdown in productivity increasingly believe gains are not spreading through the economy, as they once did

As far back as the industrial revolution, major innovations have traveled swiftly from company to company and industry to industry, an economy-boosting phenomenon called diffusion.

Today, there is mounting evidence this engine of growth seems to be misfiring, a phenomenon some economists say helps explain the slowdown in productivity growth bedeviling developed economies.

Productivity, usually measured as output per hour or per worker, refers to the efficiency with which goods and services are produced in an economy. Boosting productivity—raising the amount of goods and services produced by each worker—is one of the most important long-term drivers of rising living standards.

Lately, economists have discovered an unsettling phenomenon: While top companies are getting more productive, gains are stalling for everyone else. And the gap between the two is widening, with globalization and new technology delivering outsize rewards to the titans of the global economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Central Europe’s Goldilocks economies

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juli 2018

Date: 05-07-2018
Source: The Economist

The region is enjoying a boom. But long-term success requires more skilled workers and more innovative companies

THEY evoke metal gorillas in a cavernous, floodlit hall: 640 robots with riveting guns and arms for handling parts. They will spring into action this autumn at the opening of a new plant for Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), built at a cost of €1.4bn ($1.6bn) on former farmland in Nitra, in western Slovakia. Cars under construction will travel along 3.9km of elevated maglev track, taking just two days from start to completion. The robots, together with 2,800 human workers, will assemble a Land Rover Discovery every two minutes.

JLR is just the latest carmaker to come to Slovakia. VW arrived 27 years ago, followed by Kia and PSA. The firms together churn out over 1m cars annually, more per head of population than any other country. JLR considered 30 or 40 locations, says Alexander Wortberg, who oversees operations at Nitra. Mexico has cheaper workers and (for now, at least) favourable access to the American market. But Nitra is close to a new motorway and Slovakia has an impressive supply chain, with more than 300 factories making car parts. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The rich world needs higher real wage growth

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juli 2018

Date: 02-07-2018
Source: The Economist

Pay is rising, but so are prices. Blame more expensive oil

CENTRAL bankers and economists have spilled much ink in recent years on the question of why wages have not grown more. The average unemployment rate in advanced economies is 5.3%, lower than before the financial crisis. Yet even in America, the hottest rich-world economy, pay is growing by less than 3% annually. This month the European Central Bank devoted much of its annual shindig in Sintra, Portugal to discussing the wage puzzle.

Recent data show, however, that the problem rich countries face is not that nominal wage growth has failed to respond to economic conditions. It is that inflation is eating up pay increases and that real—that is, inflation-adjusted—wages are therefore stagnant. Real wages in America and the euro zone, for example, are growing more slowly even as the world economy, and headline pay, have both picked up (see chart). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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