By Gita Gopinath

The global economy is in a synchronized slowdown and we are, once again, downgrading growth for 2019 to 3 percent, its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. Growth continues to be weakened by rising trade barriers and increasing geopolitical tensions. We estimate that the US-China trade tensions will cumulatively reduce the level of global GDP by 0.8 percent by 2020. Growth is also being weighed down by country-specific factors in several emerging market economies, and by structural forces, such as low productivity growth and aging demographics in advanced economies.

In the October World Economic Outlook, we are projecting a modest improvement in global growth to 3.4 percent in 2020, another downward revision of 0.2 percent from our April projections. However, unlike the synchronized slowdown, this recovery is not broad-based and remains precarious. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »