Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Roubini’

The future of the global economy hinges on four games of chicken

Posted by hkarner - 26. September 2019

Date: 25-09-2019
Source: The Guardian by Nouriel Roubini

Trump’s rows with China and Iran, Brexit and Argentina’s populism put the world on a knife edge

Shipping containers from China and other Asian countries

In the classic game of chicken, two drivers race directly toward each other, and the first to swerve is the loser. If neither swerves, both will probably die. In the past, such scenarios have been studied to assess the risks posed by great-power rivalries. In the case of the Cuban missile crisis, for example, Soviet and American leaders were confronted with the choice of losing face or risking a catastrophic collision. The question, always, is whether a compromise can be found that spares both parties their lives and their credibility.

There are now several geo-economic games of chicken playing out. In each case, failure to compromise would lead to a collision, most likely followed by a global recession and financial crisis. The first and most important contest is between the US and China over trade and technology. The second is the brewing dispute between the US and Iran. In Europe, there is the escalating brinkmanship between Boris Johnson and the EU over Brexit. Finally, there is Argentina, which could end up on a collision course with the International Monetary Fund after the likely victory of the Peronist Alberto Fernández in next month’s presidential election. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Anatomy of the Coming Recession

Posted by hkarner - 24. August 2019

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next recession is likely to be caused by permanent negative supply shocks from the Sino-American trade and technology war. And trying to undo the damage through never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be an option.

NEW YORK – There are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the center of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of countercyclical macroeconomic policy.

The first potential shock stems from the Sino-American , which earlier this month when US President Donald Trump’s administration threatened additional tariffs on Chinese exports, and formally labeled China a currency manipulator. The second concerns the slow-brewing cold war between the US and China over technology. In a rivalry that has all the hallmarks of a “,” China and America are vying for dominance over the industries of the future: artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, 5G, and so forth. The US has placed the Chinese telecom giant Huawei on an “entity list” reserved for foreign companies deemed to pose a national-security threat. And although Huawei has received temporary exemptions allowing it to continue using US components, the Trump administration this week announced that it was adding an additional 46 Huawei affiliates to the list. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Great Crypto Heist

Posted by hkarner - 17. Juli 2019

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Cryptocurrencies have given rise to an entire new criminal industry, comprising unregulated offshore exchanges, paid propagandists, and an army of scammers looking to fleece retail investors. Yet, despite the overwhelming evidence of rampant fraud and abuse, financial regulators and law-enforcement agencies remain asleep at the wheel.

NEW YORK – There is a good reason why every civilized country in the world tightly regulates its financial system. The 2008 global financial crisis, after all, was largely the result of rolling back financial regulation. Crooks, criminals, and grifters are a fact of life, and no financial system can serve its proper purpose unless investors are protected from them.

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The Growing Risk of a 2020 Recession and Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 17. Juni 2019

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Across the advanced economies, monetary and fiscal policymakers lack the tools needed to respond to another major downturn and financial crisis. Worse, while the world no longer needs to worry about a hawkish US Federal Reserve strangling growth, it now has an even bigger problem on its hands.

NEW YORK – Last summer, my colleague Brunello Rosa and I identified ten potential downside risks that could trigger a US and global recession in 2020. Nine of them are still in play today.

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The Global Consequences of a Sino-American Cold War

Posted by hkarner - 21. Mai 2019

Date: 20-05-2019
Source: by Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

What started as a trade war between the United States and China is quickly escalating into a death match for global economic, technological, and military dominance. If the two countries‘ leaders cannot manage the defining relationship of the twenty-first century responsibly, the entire world will bear the costs of their failure.

NEW YORK – A few years ago, as part of a Western delegation to China, I met President Xi Jinping in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People. When addressing us, Xi argued that China’s rise would be peaceful, and that other countries – namely, the United States – need not worry about the “Thucydides Trap,” so named for the Greek historian who chronicled how Sparta’s fear of a rising Athens made war between the two inevitable. In his 2017 book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, Harvard University’s Graham Allison examines 16 earlier rivalries between an emerging and an established power, and finds that 12 of them led to war. No doubt, Xi wanted us to focus on the remaining four. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Bipolare Märkte in der „neuen Mittelmäßigkeit“

Posted by hkarner - 24. April 2019

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK:– Die Finanzmärkte neigen zu manisch-depressiven Zyklen, und in den vergangen Jahren war diese Tendenz besonders ausgeprägt. In Phasen der Risikofreude produzieren die Anleger – angetrieben von „animalischen Instinkten“ – Bullenmärkte, Überhitzung und manchmal regelrechte Blasen; irgendwann jedoch folgt dann auf eine negative Erschütterung eine Überreaktion und sie werden übertrieben pessimistisch, stoßen Risikowerte ab und erzwingen eine Korrektur oder einen Bärenmarkt.

Während die Kurse US-amerikanischer und globaler Aktien im gesamten Jahresverlauf 2017 , kamen die Märkte in 2018 ins Trudeln und gerieten im letzten Quartal des Jahres schwer unter Druck. Diese Risikoscheu spiegelte Sorgen über eine globale Rezession und die chinesisch-amerikanischen Handelsspannungen wider, aber auch über Signale der US-Notenbank (Fed), dass diese die Zinsen weiter anheben und eine quantitative Verknappung verfolgen würde.

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Understanding the Fed’s Dovish Turn

Posted by hkarner - 19. März 2019

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Over the past few years, the US Federal Reserve has been ahead of other major central banks in normalizing monetary policy. But now the Fed has abruptly put further interest-rate hikes on hold, owing to key changes in macroeconomic conditions and the political environment.

NEW YORK – The US Federal Reserve surprised markets recently with a large and unexpected policy change. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met in December 2018, it hiked the Fed’s policy rate to 2.25-2.5%, and signaled that it would raise the benchmark rate another three times, to 3%-3.25%, before stopping. It also signaled that it would continue to unwind its balance sheet of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities indefinitely, by up to $50 billion per month.

But just six weeks later, at the FOMC meeting in late January, the Fed indicated that it would pause its rate hikes for the foreseeable future and suspend its balance-sheet unwinding sometime this year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ein wirtschaftlich durchwachsenes Jahr 2019

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2019

 

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – Auf das synchronisierte globale Wirtschaftswachstum von 2017 folgte das asynchrone Wachstum des Jahres 2018, in dem, von den USA abgesehen, in den meisten Ländern Konjunkturabschwünge einsetzten. Sorgen über die US-Inflation, den geldpolitischen Kurs der US Federal Reserve, anhaltende Handelskriege, Italiens Haushalts- und Schuldenprobleme, den Konjunkturabschwung in China und die Anfälligkeiten der Schwellenmärkte führten am Jahresende zu steilen Kursrückgängen an den weltweiten Aktienmärkten.

Die gute Nachricht zu Beginn des Jahres 2019 ist, dass das Risiko einer unmittelbaren globalen Rezession niedrig ist. Die schlechte Nachricht ist, dass wir auf ein Jahr des synchronisierten globalen Abschwungs zusteuern; das Wirtschaftswachstum wird in den meisten Regionen in Richtung seines Potentials fallen und dieses in einigen Fällen noch unterschreiten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump vs. the Economy

Posted by hkarner - 30. Dezember 2018

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Between publicly chastising US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and escalating his trade war with China, US President Donald Trump has finally rattled the markets. While investors were happy to look the other way during the first half of Trump’s term, the dangerous spectacle unfolding in the White House can no longer be ignored.

NEW YORK – Financial markets have finally awoken to the fact that Donald Trump is US president. Given that the world has endured two years of reckless tweets and public statements by the world’s most powerful man, the obvious question is, What took so long?

For one thing, until now, investors had bought into the argument that Trump is all bark and no bite. They were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as long as he pursued tax cuts, deregulation, and other policies beneficial to the corporate sector and shareholders. And many trusted that, at the end of the day, the “adults in the room” would restrain Trump and ensure that the administration’s policies didn’t jump the guardrails of orthodoxy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The US-China trade truce: a time-out or a possible armistice?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2018

The US-China trade truce will become a time-out or an armistice pending on China’s response regarding technology policy​

The trade truce between the United States and China, announced after the dinner of the presidents of the two countries in Buenos Aires on Saturday after the G20 meeting, must be assessed in accordance to three different motivations that can be attributed to President Trump as reasons for starting the war. Although special attention has been given to immediate implications of the truce for the global macroeconomic environment and its impact on financial markets, it is important to keep in sight what it will take to become either a short time-out or a step to armistice.

The US-China bilateral trade clash has been a crucial moment in the transition from multilateralism to bilateralism in US foreign relations since the arrival of President Trump to power. Full multilateralism faced great difficulties during the Doha round of trade negotiations, in which complex negotiation processes required unanimity for approval and were vulnerable to blockades set by a few countries. The Obama administration initiated its replacement by plurilateral negotiations, with support from the countries involved, as proposed in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and a possible later agreement with European countries. President Trump buried such an initiative and has argued there are advantages for his country to negotiate on a bilateral basis. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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