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Posts Tagged ‘Roubini’

Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

Posted by hkarner - 12. Dezember 2017

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. Sooner or later, Trump’s core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.

NEW YORK – Donald Trump won the US presidency with the backing of working-class and socially conservative white voters on a populist platform of economic nationalism. Trump rejected the Republican Party’s traditional pro-business, pro-trade agenda, and, like Bernie Sanders on the left, appealed to Americans who have been harmed by disruptive technologies and “globalist” policies promoting free trade and migration. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Plot Against America’s 99%

Posted by hkarner - 7. November 2017

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

US President Donald Trump, in partnership with congressional Republicans, is pursuing tax cuts that will blow up the fiscal deficit and add to the public debt, while benefiting the rich at the expense of middle- and working-class Americans. Once again, Trump has not hesitated to betray the people he conned into voting for him.
NEW YORK – After multiple failed attempts to “repeal and replace” the 2010 Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), US President Donald Trump’s administration now hopes to achieve its first legislative victory with a massive tax giveaway that it has wrapped in the language of “tax reform.” To that end, Republicans in the US Congress have just unveiled a bill that, if enacted, could vastly widen the deficit and increase the public debt by as much as $4 trillion over the next decade.

Worse still, the Republican plan is designed to funnel most of the benefits to the rich. It would lower the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%, reduce the tax on capital gains (investment profits), eliminate the estate tax, and introduce other changes that benefit the wealthy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Three Scenarios for the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 11. Oktober 2017

The International Monetary Fund, which in recent years had characterized global growth as the “new mediocre,” recently upgraded its World Economic Outlook. But is the IMF right to think that the recent growth spurt will continue over the next few years, or is a temporary cyclical upswing about to be subdued by new tail risks?

NEW YORK – For the last few years, the global economy has been oscillating between periods of acceleration (when growth is positive and strengthening) and periods of deceleration (when growth is positive but weakening). After over a year of acceleration, is the world headed toward another slowdown, or will the recovery persist?

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The Mystery of the Missing Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 14. September 2017

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Since the summer of 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion, yet inflation has yet to pick up in the advanced economies. The question that inflation-targeting central banks must confront is straightforward: why?

NEW YORK – Since the summer of 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion, with the growth rate accelerating gradually. What has not picked up, at least in the advanced economies, is inflation. The question is why.

In the United States, Europe, Japan, and other developed economies, the recent growth acceleration has been driven by an increase in aggregate demand, a result of continued expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, as well as higher business and consumer confidence. That confidence has been driven by a decline in financial and economic risk, together with the containment of geopolitical risks, which, as a result, have so far had little impact on economies and markets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Dim Outlook for Trumponomics

Posted by hkarner - 5. August 2017

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The New Abnormal in Monetary Policy

Posted by hkarner - 11. Juli 2017

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The Global Recovery’s Downside Risks

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juni 2017

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Whistling Past the Geopolitical Graveyard

Posted by hkarner - 9. Mai 2017

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„Dr. Doom“ warnt vor Trumps Plänen: „Märkte werden misstrauisch“

Posted by hkarner - 23. April 2017

Ökonom Nouriel Roubini sah schon vor zehn Jahren das Platzen der Immobilienblase und die Gefahren für die Weltwirtschaft voraus.

Mit der Pleite des US-Immobilienfinanzierers New Century nahm die jüngste große Finanzkrise vor zehn Jahren ihren Lauf. Heute warnen Ökonomen erneut vor Risiken, die die Weltwirtschaft erschüttern könnten. So gelten etwa die Pläne von US-Präsident Donald Trump, der den Banken die nach dem Crash auferlegten Zügel wieder abnehmen will, als Gefahr. Droht eine neue Krise?

Am Anfang schien das Problem noch überschaubar. Der Insolvenzantrag von New Century Financial sei „das jüngste Anzeichen für eine drastische Marktbereinigung beim Geschäft mit Hypothekendarlehen für Menschen mit schwacher Kreditwürdigkeit“, hieß es im April 2007 im führenden US-Wirtschaftsblatt „Wall Street Journal“.

Erste Zweifel an der „Trump-Rally“

Dass die Pleite den Auftakt eines Flächenbrands markierte, der später im Kollaps der Investmentbank Lehman Brothers eskalieren und das ganze Finanzsystem bedrohen sollte, wurde den meisten Experten erst in der Nachbetrachtung bewusst. Zunächst warnten nur vereinzelte Stimmen vor der großen Gefahr durch das Ende des von fahrlässiger Kreditvergabe befeuerten Booms am US-Häusermarkt.

Einer von ihnen war der Ökonom Nouriel Roubini, wegen seiner vielen Warnungen vor dem Platzen der Immobilienblase und den Gefahren für die Weltwirtschaft auch „Dr. Doom“ (Dr. Untergang) genannt. Der Professor der zur New York University gehörenden Stern School of Business hielt sich in den vergangenen Jahren mit Unkenrufen zurück, doch seit Trumps Wahl zum US-Präsident macht er sich wieder Sorgen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Too Late to Compensate Free Trade’s Losers

Posted by hkarner - 12. April 2017

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