Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Trump’

What will result from America’s strangely timed fiscal stimulus?

Posted by hkarner - 9. Februar 2018

Date: 08-02-2018
Source: The Economist
Subject: The great experiment

The threat of inflation is less worrying than some investors think

GOOD economic news is not always good for everyone. On February 2nd it was revealed that average hourly wages grew by 2.9% in the year to January—the fastest growth since 2009, at the end of the recession. Stocks promptly tumbled around the world. Investors fretted that inflation might rise, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further and faster than expected. Whether the jitters are justified, however, depends on how an extraordinary experiment in economic policy plays out. America is poised to stimulate an economy that is already growing strongly, at a time of historically low unemployment.

Most of the stimulus will come from tax cuts that President Donald Trump signed into law in December. These are worth 0.7% of projected GDP in 2018 and 1.5% of GDP in 2019. On February 18th Senate leaders sketched out a budget deal containing a further fiscal boost. If the proposal passes, defence spending will rise by $80bn this year, pleasing Republicans. Democrats have been offered $63bn in spending on other programmes. The total increase in outlays is worth another 0.7% of GDP. The White House also promises to unveil an infrastructure investment plan on February 12th. Higher spending will add to government borrowing that, after tax cuts, is already likely to reach almost $1trn, or 5% of GDP, by 2019 (see chart 1). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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US Foreign Policy and the Missing Left

Posted by hkarner - 9. Februar 2018

Michael Walzer

Michael Walzer is Professor Emeritus at the Institute for Advanced Study. His most recent book is A Foreign Policy for the Left.

US foreign policy under Donald Trump has been a disaster, marked by pointless militarism, nuclear saber rattling, support for some of the world’s most brutal regimes, and now a presidential demand for a Soviet-style military parade. Yet the US left has remained all but silent on foreign-policy questions, embracing a tacit isolationism that consigns it to irrelevance.

PRINCETON – Consider the disaster of American foreign policy under President Donald Trump. While the president spent his first year in office trading insults with the dictator of North Korea, that country has moved steadily forward with its nuclear program, and the United States has moved steadily closer to a war that no one wants.

In Syria last April, US forces attacked government installations with a one-time bombing raid that, with no political or diplomatic follow-through, achieved nothing. Similarly, after arming Kurdish militias to fight the Islamic State (ISIS) on its behalf, the US has stood by and watched Turkey attack those same men and women.

As a result of the Trump administration’s abandonment of Obama-era restraints on the use of airpower, a US-led coalition “victory” in Mosul, Iraq, caused thousands of civilian casualties and left a pile of rubble. As in Vietnam, America had to destroy the city in order to save it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Donald Trump und die schwindende weiche Macht der USA

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2018

Joseph S. Nye, Jr., a former US assistant secretary of defense and chairman of the US National Intelligence Council, is University Professor at Harvard University. He is the author of Is the American Century Over?

CAMBRIDGE – Die Beweislage ist eindeutig. Die Präsidentschaft Donald Trumps untergräbt Amerikas weiche Macht. Im Rahmen einer jüngst von Gallup durchgeführten Umfrage in 134 Ländern gaben lediglich 30 Prozent der Befragten an, eine positive Einstellung gegenüber den Vereinigten Staaten unter der Führung Trumps zu haben – ein Rückgang von beinahe 20 Punkten seit der Präsidentschaft Barack Obamas. Das Pew Research Center stellte fest, dass China mit einem Beliebtheitswert von 30 Prozent beinahe zu den USA aufgeschlossen hat. Und im britischen Index The Soft Power 30rutschte Amerika vom ersten Platz im Jahr 2016 auf den dritten Platz im letzten Jahr ab.

Trumps Verteidiger erwidern, dass es auf weiche Macht nicht ankommt. Trumps Haushaltsdirektor Mick Mulvaney verkündete einen „Haushalt der harten Macht” als er die Mittel für das Außenministerium und die Behörde für Internationale Entwicklung um 30 Prozent kürzte. Für die Verfechter des Ansatzes „Amerika zuerst” ist es zweitrangig, was der Rest der Welt denkt. Haben sie Recht?

Weiche Macht beruht nicht auf Zwang oder Zahlungen, sondern auf Anziehungskraft. Sie bindet Menschen ein anstatt Druck auf sie auszuüben. Auf persönlicher Ebene wissen kluge Eltern, dass ihre Macht größer und dauerhafter ist, wenn sie ihren Kindern solide ethische Werte vorleben anstatt auf Prügel, Geldgeschenke und versteckte Autoschlüssel zu setzen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Donald Trump Is Playing to Lose

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2018

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

After a year in office, US President Donald Trump’s approach to policymaking has been nothing if not bizarre. Whereas past presidents have sought the middle ground in an effort to develop effective policies and win re-election, Trump seems dead set on antagonizing the majority of Americans who did not vote for him.

BERKELY – America certainly has a different kind of president than what it is used to. What distinguishes Donald Trump from his predecessors is not just his temperament and generalized ignorance, but also his approach to policymaking.

First, consider Bill Clinton, who in 1992 was, like Trump, elected without a majority of voters. Once in office, Clinton appealed to the left with fiscal-stimulus and health-care bills (both unsuccessful), but also tacked center with a pro-growth deficit-reduction bill. He appealed to the center right by concluding the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which had been conceived under his Republican predecessors; and by signing a major crime bill. And he reappointed the conservative stalwart Alan Greenspan to chair the US Federal Reserve. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Troubling Nuclear Plan

Posted by hkarner - 4. Februar 2018

Date: 03-02-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Adam Mount

How It Hastens the Rise of a More Dangerous World

Like President Donald Trump, the Pentagon’s new nuclear policy document sees a dark and threatening world. It argues that potential U.S. adversaries such as China, North Korea, and Russia are rapidly improving their nuclear capabilities and gaining an edge over the United States. But rather than laying out a plan to halt this slide into a more dangerous world and working to decrease reliance on nuclear weapons, the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) hastens its rise by accepting the reasoning of U.S. adversaries and affirmatively embracing nuclear competition.

The central claim of the Nuclear Posture Review is that the United States must expand its reliance on nuclear weapons to protect the country and its allies—a complete reversal of the Obama administration’s effort to reduce reliance. To this end, the NPR proposes not only replacing an aging nuclear arsenal but further “supplement[ing]” it with two new missiles. It expands the circumstances in which the United States would consider employing nuclear weapons to include the ambiguously termed “non-nuclear strategic attacks” against infrastructure. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Post-Davos Depression

Posted by hkarner - 2. Februar 2018

Chapeau, Prof. Stiglitz: That he dares to be so outspoken about morally corrupt CEOs, who hide behind the „values“ they are talking of!!! (hfk)

 

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

The CEOs of Davos were euphoric this year about the return to growth, strong profits, and soaring executive compensation. Economists reminded them that this growth is not sustainable, and has never been inclusive; but in a world where greed is always good, such arguments have little impact.

DAVOS – I’ve been attending the World Economic Forum’s annual conference in Davos, Switzerland – where the so-called global elite convenes to discuss the world’s problems – since 1995. Never have I come away more dispirited than I have this year.

The world is plagued by almost intractable problems. Inequality is surging, especially in the advanced economies. The digital revolution, despite its potential, also carries serious risks for privacy, security, jobs, and democracy – challenges that are compounded by the rising monopoly power of a few American and Chinese data giants, including Facebook and Google. Climate change amounts to an existential threat to the entire global economy as we know it.

Perhaps more disheartening than such problems, however, are the responses. To be sure, here at Davos, CEOs from around the world begin most of their speeches by affirming the importance of values. Their activities, they proclaim, are aimed not just at maximizing profits for shareholders, but also at creating a better future for their workers, the communities in which they work, and the world more generally. They may even pay lip service to the risks posed by climate change and inequality. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trumponomics Is Failing on Growth

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2018

Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the IMF, is a professor at MIT Sloan, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and co-founder of a leading economics blog, The Baseline Scenario. He is the co-author, with James Kwak, of White House Burning: The Founding Fathers, Our National Debt, and Why It Matters to You.

After campaigning as a businessman who would usher in a new golden age of growth in America, US President Donald Trump’s economic track record in 2017 proved disappointing. Despite large tax cuts and little standing in the way of Trump’s deregulatory agenda, the US economy has performed no better under his administration than under the last.

WASHINGTON, DC – US President Donald Trump and his Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, have promised an economic miracle. They argue that when the United States adopts their policies, it will consistently achieve annual economic growth above 3%, or even above 4%. After a year of being in charge, pushing hard on deregulation, and getting what it wanted in terms of tax cuts, how is the Trump team doing?

We are still in the early days, but the results so far have been disappointing. And the US’s medium-term prospects for sustained growth could be endangered if Trump pursues the policies he claims to want.

Trump has repeatedly argued that America’s overall economic performance in 2017 should be seen as the direct result of his policies, and he has made a big deal out of the third-quarter growth rate, which was initially reported as 3.3%, then revised down to 3.2%. Yet, in the fourth quarter, growth was down to 2.6%, and initial estimates suggest that overall growth for the year will not surpass 2.3%. That is lower than what was achieved under former President Barack Obama in 2014 (2.6%) and 2015 (2.9%). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Full of passionate intensity: The State of the Union is fractious

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2018

Date: 31-01-2018
Source: The Economist

Despite superficial appeals to unity, Donald Trump’s first such speech was as angry and divisive as his presidency

Democracy in America

“IN MANY ways,” said one pundit after Donald Trump’s maiden address to Congress nearly 11 months ago, “it was the long-awaited pivot that Trump has always promised…He was disciplined, didn’t veer much at all from the script and hit his marks.” Two things stand out about this assessment. First, it did not last long: just four days later Mr Trump took to Twitter to falsely accuse Barack Obama of masterminding a plot to “tapp my phones during the very sacred election process.” Second, it reflects how low Candidate Trump had set the behavioural bar: simply reading from a teleprompter while not boasting about the size of his genitalia or belittling anyone was enough to get critics to call him “presidential”.

This year, like last, Mr Trump mostly stuck to his script. And, as is customary, he made some feints toward unity, urging politicians to “seek out common ground” and restating his “righteous mission—to make America great again for all Americans.” But those appeals were brief and superficial. Mr Trump’s first State of the Union, much like his presidency, was aimed narrowly and directly at his base. It told Americans that the world is violent and frightening—that they should be scared, and trust him to keep them safe. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Davos Man Kowtows to Trump

Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2018

Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister and former Senior Vice President of the World Bank, is a member of the Spanish Council of State, a visiting lecturer at Georgetown University, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on the United States.

By so easily betraying the values that have long underpinned the rules-based liberal world order – such as multilateralism, democracy, and the rule of law – the toadies in Davos have put the lie to the entire system. This is bad news for everyone, because, while that order certainly is in need of reform, it remains our best hope.

MADRID – It has been a confusing couple of years for “Davos man” – the members of the global hyper-elite who gather each year for the World Economic Forum’s flagship conference to mull over the challenges the world faces. After decades of reveling in broad global acceptance of the rules-based liberal world order, the stewards – and, in many cases, key beneficiaries – of that order have been forced to defend it from high-profile assaults, most prominently by US President Donald Trump. Rather than fight, however, they seem to be giving in.

Last year, participants in Davos were shaken in anticipation of Trump’s inauguration, which occurred on the final day of the meeting. With the United States about to come under the leadership of a president who loudly touted an “America First” outlook, they looked desperately for a new champion of globalization. As their gaze settled on Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first cracks emerged in their commitment to putting ideas and values above expediency. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The International Economic Consequences of Mr. Trump

Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2018

Jean Pisani-Ferry, a professor at the Hertie School of Governance (Berlin) and Sciences Po (Paris), holds the Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa chair at the European University Institute.

What has fundamentally changed with the Trump administration is not that it behaves more selfishly than its predecessors, but that it seems unconvinced that the global system serves US strategic interests. For the rest of the world, the key question is whether the global system is resilient enough to survive its creator’s withdrawal.

PARIS – This year’s World Economic Forum in Davos proved to be yet another opportunity for US President Donald Trump’s administration to display its customary verbal incontinence and send shockwaves through the global economy. This time, there were two sources.

The first shock came from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who broke with more than two decades of strict discipline by suggesting that a weaker dollar would be in America’s interest. The second came from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who seemed to rejoice at the prospect of waging and winning a trade war. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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