Posted by hkarner - 21. Februar 2017
“We have a system that increasingly taxes work and subsidizes nonwork.”
– Milton Friedman
“You must be the change you wish to see in the world.”
– Mahatma Gandhi
“Real change requires real change.”
– Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich
Today we come to part 3 of my tax reform series. So far, we’ve introduced the challenge and begun to describe the main proposed GOP solution. Today we’ll look at the new and widely misunderstood “border adjustment” idea and talk about both its good and bad points. What follows may make more sense if you have first read part 1 and part 2. Next week we’ll explore what I think would be a far superior option, though one that is based on the spirit of the current proposal. If House leadership thinks they can get the present proposal through (doubtful), then they should stop messing around and do something really controversial by changing the entire terms of engagement. As my friend Newt Gingrich has often told me, “John, real change requires real change.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: BAT, Growth, Mauldin, tax, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 14. Februar 2017
– Mark Skousen
“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”
– Ronald Reagan
Taxation is almost never an exciting subject, nor do we want it to be. The best tax system would be silent and unobtrusive. It would raise enough revenue to cover essential government functions and not a penny more. Sadly, our US system is nowhere near the ideal.
In part one of this series, I talked about whether the new tax proposals would actually create jobs and discussed the proposed “Border Adjustment Tax” and some of its possible complications. In part two, today, we will look more closely at the rest of the tax proposals. Then next week we will go much deeper into the BAT and then into what I think the tax system should actually look like, which will be far different from anything I’ve suggested in the past. That discussion will make more sense if we have placed the ideas in full context. That is today’s objective.
The BAT is not a stand-alone policy. It is one component of a broader House Republican tax reform plan, which in turn is part of an even broader federal government reform proposal called “A Better Way.” In theory, the different parts all work together, which is good but makes it hard to discuss any one element in isolation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: BAT, Mauldin, tax, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2017
This topic (BAT) is probably going to affect the state of the world most among all of Trump’s measures! (hfk)By John Mauldin, February 7, 2017
Vizzini: He didn’t fall?! Inconceivable!
Inigo Montoya: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
– From The Princess Bride
“A tariff is a scale of taxes on imports, designed to protect the domestic producer against the greed of his consumer.”
– Ambrose Bierce
“Vast possibilities matured into realities before their very eyes. Nevertheless, they saw nothing but cramped economies struggling with ever-decreasing success for their daily bread.”
– Joseph Schumpeter on the Industrial Revolution
The usual thrust of this letter is economics, finance, and investing. Lately, however, the political process has been invading my normal domain – sometimes to the dismay of some of my readers. I get that politics comes with the territory; and I think everyone, no matter their political persuasion, will agree that taxes, which are political in nature, have a major impact on economics, finance, and investment. And thus commenting on taxes is fair game.
My original intention for this letter was to do an analysis of the Republican tax reform proposals. My associate Patrick Watson and I spent two weeks doing a really deep dive into the proposed reforms. I had the privilege of talking taxes with the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, fellow Texan Kevin Brady, as well as his staff. The chairman was kind enough to allow his remarks to be on the record – but his staff made it clear that they were to be on background. We have also talked with numerous think tanks and other experts across the political spectrum. We’ve actually been able to get information on some of the proposed reforms that, as far as we can tell, isn’t available in anything that’s already out there on the Internet.
A few observations from 30,000 feet – Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Amazon, BAT, china, Current Account Deficit, disintermediation, Gave, Germany, Growth, Mauldin, reserve currency, surplus, tax, Technology, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2017
– John Maynard Keynes
“Simplicity does not precede complexity, but follows it.”
– Alan Perlis
“Stop trying to change reality by attempting to eliminate complexity.”
– David Whyte
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: complexity, Mauldin | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 26. Januar 2017
Europe matters. As John Mauldin said recently, in the not-too-distant future Europe, will likely be hit by a “very severe recession, which could push the US into recession if it happens too quickly.”
That’s why I sat down with Geopolitical Futures founder George Friedman to discuss his outlook for Europe in his just-released report, The World in 2017—his wall-to-wall forecast on global events we can expect this year.
Click below to see George’s take on a sickly European Union… the rot sneaking into two of its founding members… why Brussels bureaucrats are like bad teachers trying to control unruly students… and more.
Posted in Audios/Videos | Verschlagwortet mit: Europe, Friedman, Mauldin | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2017
Very interesting and important insights! (hfk)
I have been in Washington DC for the last three days. The ostensible reason was to participate in a board meeting of a public company, Ashford Inc. (AINC). We manage hotel REITs that own three hotels here in DC, and the group decided to move our board meeting up a few weeks and hold it in DC during the inauguration. That gave me the opportunity to set up a few meetings to try to gain some insight into what the first 100 days, the first six months, and the first year of the Trump administration might look like.
This is going to be a short letter summarizing my impressions from the last few days. I think it might be easiest to present them in the form of a list.
- If you listen to the media you might have the impression that the Trump transition team is in complete disarray. Talking with leaders of the transition team certainly didn’t leave me with that impression. They have broken the transition process down into over 30 departments and have created a “landing document” for each department. The analogy they are using is that this process is like planning an invasion, and they are going to hand the landing document off to the “beachhead teams” who will then execute the plans.
I was briefly allowed to look at (without actually being able to read) the plan for one cabinet-level department. It appeared to be about 100 pages plus of serious detail as to exactly what executive orders would need to be removed and added, what personnel would have to be replaced (both appointees and regular staff), what policies would need to be changed, and so forth. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Dodd-Frank, Mauldin, Navarro, Obamacare, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 15. Dezember 2016
John Mauldin | Dec 14, 2016
Italy has a new government, and Matteo Renzi is not in charge of it. The former prime minister kept his word and resigned following his constitutional reform plan’s crushing defeat at the polls. Is all now well in that beautiful land?
Not exactly, though we did see a glimmer of hope this week. Unicredit, Italy’s largest bank, announced job cuts and asset sales that may buy it some time. This does not, however, mean the crisis is over. At best, it means the beginning of the crisis is over. We have a long way to go.
Our first OTB selection today begins, “Chronic inability to separate the probable from the desirable has been the tragedy of 2016.” Those fateful words come from Financial Times columnist Wolfgang Münchau, who is normally very calm but now sees wishful thinking about Italy as a major threat. As much as some might wish Italy to remain in the eurozone, Münchau thinks it’s increasingly improbable. Timing is the main question.
A brief sample of his analysis:
One day Italy will be led by a party in favour of withdrawal from the euro. When that happens, euro exit would turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. There would a run on Italy’s banks and its government’s bonds. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Borghi, ECB, Evans-Pritchard, Finanzkrise, FT, Italexit, Italy, M5S, Mauldin, Münchau, Target | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 15. Dezember 2016
Dec 14, 2016, Mauldin Economics
By George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro
One of the biggest challenges in writing forecasts is clearly communicating our predications for the coming year. There is a certain level of background and analysis that goes into forecasting geopolitics, but often, that background and analysis can serve as either an intellectual crutch or a way of using a lot of words without actually making a call one way or another.
That’s why our annual forecasts go through multiple phases of editing. Our forecast for 2017 was published just this week. But our work on the forecast began in early October, with a massive 50-page document filled with questions, research, and findings. This master document was then scrutinized, debated, and whittled down, sharper and sharper… until what was left (hopefully) was a concise description of the world in 2017, as we see it.
We aim for accuracy, and as you can see from previous report cards on our work, we are pretty good at what we do. Our full report card for 2016 will be published next week, but in the meantime, subscribers can check out our mid-year evaluation here. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Economy, Friedman, Mauldin, Russia, Shapiro | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 13. Dezember 2016
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.”
– Warren Buffett
“There is no safe store of value.”
– Alan Greenspan
“In the short-run, the market is a voting machine – reflecting a voter-registration test that requires only money, not intelligence or emotional stability – but in the long-run, the market is a weighing machine.”
– Attributed to Benjamin Graham by Warren Buffett in a 1993 Berkshire Hathaway letter
The actual quote, from Graham’s 1934 book Security Analysis, is:
In other words, the market is not a weighing machine, in which the value of each issue is registered by an exact and impersonal mechanism, in accordance with its specific qualities. Rather we should say that the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are partly the product of reason and partly the product of emotion…. Hence the prices of common stocks are not carefully thought out computations, but the resultant of a welter of human reactions. The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine. It responds to factual data not directly, but only as they affect the decisions of buyers and sellers.
Stock Valuation in the Age of Trump Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Mauldin, Stocks, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 28. November 2016
You Got to Know When to Fold ’Em
What Happens If We Don’t Balance the Budget?
This will be a shorter letter, in keeping with the need for holiday fun and relaxation. However, last week’s letter with my thoughts on what Trump should do generated more responses than any other letter had in the last 17 years. As you might suspect, with a topic so controversial, not everyone agreed with me. But there were many good questions and comments and some thoughtful disagreements, so I want to address a few of those. And I will specifically go into why I seemingly deviate from core conservative principles regarding taxes. It’s all about debt and the consequences of debt – that’s the overriding factor for me. And I’ll try to make the case that there are times when we just have to make hard, even philosophically unpalatable, choices.
Some comments I will excerpt; others I will characterize in general terms; and where appropriate I’ll copy and paste whole comments. So let’s jump in.
Allen Jones · Univ. of Arkansas
Please explain further corporate tax rate of 15% on income above $100,000 with „no deductions period.“ Sounds like a 15% tax on sales. What do you mean no deductions? Are operating expenses deductions? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Mauldin, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »