Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Mauldin’

Where Will We Get the Cash?

Posted by hkarner - 12. Februar 2018

We already knew interest rates were rising. Recent data suggests they could rise significantly more than many expected just a few weeks ago. If so, that will be a big problem for bonds, stocks, and many other assets – not to mention taxpayers who will bear the cost of swelling government debt, consumers who may face inflation, and everybody who will be hurt by a recession.

The combination of a falling stock market and rising interest rates is historically and statistically rare. Normally, when the stock market goes through a correction, interest rates fall. Looking back through history, we see that 1987 and 1994, two years I have been writing about in connection with 2018, were the other unusual years.

I’ve been relatively optimistic on the economy this year, and I still think the year can end well. But given recent events, the path is more challenging now – and the odds of a rough 2019 are growing.

Burn Rate Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Advertisements

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Enjoy It While You Can

Posted by hkarner - 5. Februar 2018

So it is with economic cycles. Rarely do we move directly from boom to bust; but when the shift comes, it can develop quite quickly, even though the transition isn’t usually obvious in real time. As I look at the data and talk to my contacts, I’m beginning to conclude that we’re approaching one of those transitional phases. I think we’ll look back at 2018 as an in-between year… from good times to something eventually not so good.

Now, let me stress that I’m not predicting imminent doom. As you’ll see below, I think the party can last another year, maybe even longer. But I do see storm clouds on the horizon, and they’re blowing our way.

That ominous horizon means that some strategy adjustments are probably in order. You need to be aware that the volatility we have seen in the stock market the past few days will become more the norm. I’ll get to that later. Let’s start by considering where we are now.

Y2K Relief Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: | Leave a Comment »

Gross Domestic Problems

Posted by hkarner - 30. Januar 2018

Fictitious Wall Street villain Gordon Gekko famously declared, “Greed is good.” I think actual Wall Street titans would mostly disagree. They would change one word. Instead of “greed,” they would say, “Growth is good.” That is Wall Street’s real mantra. Growth is the magic elixir we all need.

The question, if we define growth as good, is how do we measure it? Presently we use gross domestic product, or GDP. But GDP is showing its age in the 21st century. The measure was actually invented in the late 1930s when President Roosevelt needed some way to prove that his policies were working. And at 85 years old, the old formula may be nearing time for retirement.

The only way for Roosevelt to show that his policies were working was to put government spending inside the GDP number. There was vicious fighting among economists over whether he should be allowed to do so. Many economists even argued that military spending should not be included in GDP because it didn’t produce anything. And it’s true that overreliance on GDP has often sent policymakers and business owners in wrong directions. We need a better yardstick.

First, we must next decide what, specifically, a newly formulated GDP should measure and how – and that’s a thornier question than you might think. Today we’ll wrestle with that question and with some of the implications of changing how we measure growth. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

A Fly in the Economic Ointment?

Posted by hkarner - 22. Januar 2018

The stock market is off to a rip-roaring start. For the first time ever, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has spent an entire quarter above its upper Bollinger band. That is, it’s more than two standard deviations above its 21-day moving average. You can click on the link for more detail. This might be a little technical for some of you, but it does demonstrate that there’s a great deal of exuberance in the market.


Tony Sagami

Further, Howard Silverblatt at S&P just came out with his forecasted earnings for 2018 (hat tip Ed Easterling for sending this to me). He revised 2017 earnings down by a few dollars to $110 as S&P analysts realized that companies are going to have to take write-downs for their deferred tax losses. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , | Leave a Comment »

Year of the Octopus, Part 2

Posted by hkarner - 15. Januar 2018

Only two weeks in and 2018 is already breaking records – mostly in a good way. But that leaves 50 potentially less enjoyable weeks to go. So rather than focus on promising current events, I think I’d better dip back into my annual forecast bag and share a few more highlights with you.

 

Last week I called 2018 “the Year of the Octopus” because it has so many tentacles. There are many more than eight, so I should probably have made it the Year of the Centipede. In any case, let’s run through a few more projections from my still-growing pile.

Optimism and Hong Kong

Two years ago, when I was at the same Bank of America Merrill Lynch investment conference that I attended last week in Hong Kong, the mood in the room was quite somber, even bearish. The sentiment, shared by many at that gathering, turned out to be wrong.

Last week (while still suffering mightily from jet lag) I had a good conversation with my host, Ajay Kapur (who could not have been more delightful), in which we noted the mood of this year’s conference, which was almost universally upbeat. There was a clear consensus among these very seasoned and powerful traders. Given how wrong the mood was last time, Ajay and I wondered whether we should perhaps be a little trepidatious about the Chinese, Hong Kong, and other Asian markets. I’m not sure what to make of the mood this year, but I just thought I would share that experience. Now let’s move on to the forecasts of some of my other friends. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

Year of the Octopus, Part 1

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2018

In last week’s letter, “Economy on a Roll,” I gave you my own fairly upbeat 2018 forecast. I think the US economy and markets will probably hold up well, thanks to tax cuts and deregulation – assuming the Federal Reserve gets no more hawkish than it already has. That assumption may be a stretch, given the Fed’s changing composition, but I’m feeling optimistic anyway.

The one real potential wrench in the works that I did not mention last week was Trump’s actually enacting significant tariffs or tearing up NAFTA, which would cost millions of jobs and cause significant backlash. I am hopeful that mistake won’t be made.

This week and next we’ll look at forecasts from some of my most trusted friends and colleagues. I have so many that our project may even stretch into a third week. Some disagree with my own views – and that’s perfectly fine. I want you to see all sides so you can make good decisions for your own family and portfolio. I’ll let these forecasters speak for themselves in longer quotes than I usually allow, then add my own comments. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Economy on a Roll

Posted by hkarner - 2. Januar 2018

I don’t really think of myself as a forecaster. I talk about the future all the time, of course, and I tell you what I think is coming – but whether it will arrive next month, next year, or five years from now is a different question. Timing is hard.

So, when I write annual forecast letters like this one, I put some extra pressure on myself. In addition to identifying the macro forces in play, I try to anticipate when we will see their impact. That’s never been easy, and it seems to get tougher every year. But inquiring minds want to know, so here we go.

 

Objects in Motion Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Europe’s Era of Harmony Is Over

Posted by hkarner - 23. Dezember 2017

No one else I know can muster as much deep experience and insight into the sprawling, incendiary world of geopolitics as my good friend George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures; and in today’s Outside the Box – part 2 of my 8-part SIC Speaker Series – George brings all his powers to bear to issue quite a declamatory statement on the present and future of the European Union.

George’s argument can be summarized as “the center cannot hold.” With Brexiteers on its western front and unruly right-wingers on its eastern wing in Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, the EU is sore beset. But as George notes, the center is quietly debating whether that might not be a good thing:

There has been some talk in the central region of either creating a separate union consisting of Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, or creating a bloc within the existing bloc. The point would be for these countries to stop being responsible for countries not ready to operate at the center’s level of performance. It would mean that southern Europe, with its economic problems, and Eastern Europe, with its distinctly different political culture, could go their own way. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

Automatic Job Storm Coming

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2017

The monthly jobs report isn’t like that. Yes, any single month doesn’t tell us much. Yes, the Labor Department’s methodology has some flaws, both major and minor. But imperfect as it is, the jobs report is our best look at the economy’s pulse. Jobs matter in a visceral way to almost all of us, as you know well if you’ve ever lost one. Almost any survey that asked questions around employment would reveal the angst that many Americans feel about the possibility of losing their jobs.

Right now, automation tops the list of things that might threaten our jobs. Artificial intelligence and robotics technology are rapidly learning to do what human workers do, but better, faster, and cheaper.

I’ve use the following chart before, but it’s a compelling illustration of how technology is reducing employment. It shows the rising rig count in the oil patch since mid-2016 – and yet the number of workers on those rigs is actually still falling. This is the impact of a new robot called an iron roughneck: Tasks that used to require 20 people now need only five. And the iron roughneck is not even that widely deployed in the oil and gas industry – the trend will hit hard in the coming decade. Roughneck jobs are relatively high-paying; it takes a great deal of training and skill to be able to do them. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Does Amazon Create Jobs? Well, It Hired 75,000 Robots in 2017

Posted by hkarner - 9. Dezember 2017

By Dave Edwards and Helen Edwards, gz.com
December 4, 2017
Originally published here

There are 170,000 fewer retail jobs in 2017 – and 75,000 more Amazon robots.

Amazon’s headcount is growing by 40% year-over-year. It was the eighth-largest private employer in the US at the end of 2016, and it’s poised to climb those ranks quickly. The online retailer also announced plans to build a second US headquarters that will employ 50,000 employees.

But Amazon’s growth comes at a cost. It has a well-earned reputation for overwhelming competitors. Even though Amazon represents a small portion of the overall retail industry, it dominates the industry’s sales growth.

We wondered: Does Amazon create more jobs than it destroys?

It depends – on whether you are a robot

We assembled employment data for the retail industry as a whole, and for Amazon in particular. We estimated year-end results for 2017, based on current trends. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »