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Posts Tagged ‘china’

Avoiding the Sino-American Technology Trap

Posted by hkarner - 19. Juni 2018

Laura Tyson, a former chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and a senior adviser at the Rock Creek Group.

The Trump administration is right to push back against China’s violations of world trade rules, particularly with regard to advanced technologies. But US high-tech industries‘ ability to weather the challenge posed by China will depend less on curbing China’s progress, and more on supporting innovation at home.

BERKELEY – With its ambitious Made in China 2025 strategy, China has made clear its objective to secure global economic leadership in advanced technology industries. This places it in direct competition with the United States – which currently leads in those industries – in what is emerging as an undeclared but intensifying cold war over technologies with both commercial and military applications.

With its investments in such dual-use technologies, China is seeking more than to compete commercially with the US; it is also seeking greater military and geopolitical power. And it has deployed a variety of methods – including weak intellectual property (IP) protections, technology transfers as a condition for joint ventures with Chinese partners, evasion of export controls, and regulatory harassment – to acquire such technologies from the US and other trading partners. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Unexpected Winner From the Trump-Kim Summit: China

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juni 2018

Date: 14-06-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Beijing had worried that its interests might get short-shrift in the Singapore summit

BEIJING—China is setting its sights on a key role in North Korea’s future, seeking to be part of any peace treaty, weapons inspections and economic assistance, after emerging as a surprise beneficiary of the summit between the U.S. and North Korean leaders.

Chinese officials are expected to stake out their positions for a post-summit North Korea when U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visits Beijing on Thursday to discuss the outcome of the talks between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

At the top of China’s agenda are an easing of the economic sanctions that pressured North Korea into negotiations and working on ways to provide security guarantees to give Pyongyang the confidence to dismantle its nuclear program. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rise of the Autocrats: Liberal Democracy Is Under Attack

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juni 2018

Date: 14-06-2018

Autocratic leaders and wannabes, from Putin to Trump, are making political inroads around the world. In recent years, Western liberal democracy has failed to live up to some of its core promises, helping to fuel the current wave of illiberalism.

The Era of the Autocrats

Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t actually all that interested in football. He’s more of a martial arts guy, and he loves ice hockey. But when the World Cup football championship gets started on Thursday in Moscow, Putin will strive to be the perfect host. The tournament logo is a football with stars trailing behind it, evoking Sputnik, and a billion people will be tuning in as Putin presents Russia as a strong and modern country.

During the dress rehearsal, last summer’s Confed Cup, Putin held an opening address in which he spoke of „uncompromising, fair and honest play … until the very last moments of the match.“ Now, it’s time for the main event, the World Cup, giving Putin an opportunity to showcase his country to the world. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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„Schockierend schwacher“ Zuwachs bei Investitionen in China

Posted by hkarner - 14. Juni 2018

In den ersten fünf Monaten gab es den geringster Zuwachs bei den Investitionen in Chinas Wirtschaft seit mehr als 20 Jahren. Die drohenden US-Strafzölle könnten den Export bremsen. Die Investitionen in Anlagen legten nur um 6,1 Prozent zu.

Die Zahlen von Chinas Statistikamt zeigen eine Flaute bei den Investitionen im Land. Die Investitionen wachsen so langsam wie seit 22 Jahren nicht mehr. Die Anlageinvestitionen – etwa in Fabriken und Maschinen – legten von Jänner bis Mai nur noch um 6,1 Prozent im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum zu, wie die Behörde am Donnerstag mitteilte. Das ist der kleinste Zuwachs seit mindestens 1996. Zugleich produzierte die Industrie im Mai weniger als erwartet, während der Einzelhandelsumsatz mit 8,5 Prozent so langsam wuchs wie seit 15 Jahren nicht mehr.

Die Daten „waren für chinesische Verhältnisse allesamt schockierend schwach“, schrieben die Ökonomen der Rabobank in einer Studie. Die Zentralbank entschied sich angesichts der Hinweise auf eine Konjunkturabkühlung dafür, ihre Zinsen für Interbankengeschäfte nicht anzutasten. Marktteilnehmer hatten mit einer leichten Erhöhung gerechnet, nachdem die US-Notenbank ihren Leitzins zuvor wie erwartet auf die neue Spanne von 1,75 bis 2,0 Prozent angehoben hatte. Wird der Zinsabstand zu den USA zu groß, könnte Kapital aus der Volksrepublik abgezogen werden. „Sie haben die Zinsen nicht angehoben, um das wirtschaftliche Wachstum in Schwung zu halten“, sagte Analyst Ken Cheung von der Mizuho Bank in Hongkong. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Posted by hkarner - 1. Juni 2018

Date: 31-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Karl Rove

While the U.S. fixates on steel, China seeks to dominate 21st-century technology.

People work on machines in Foxconn factory in Guiyang, Guizhou Province, China, May 28.

If Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’s goal when he flies into Beijing Saturday is merely to pressure the Chinese to buy more American goods, the Trump administration is wasting an opportunity.

A pledge by China to reduce its trade surplus with the U.S. is difficult to enforce and easily discarded. It distracts from the underlying problems in the U.S. trading relationship with China while giving the Chinese more time to dominate the technologies of the future.

Rather than short-term tweaks to the balance of trade, the administration should seek long-term policy changes that level the playing field and strengthen the rule of law. This requires focusing on four critical issues.

First, the U.S. should insist on an end to China’s trade-related investment measures. The Chinese use TRIMs to pressure foreign companies into transferring intellectual property to Chinese partners or licensing it on a noncommercial basis as a condition of doing business in China. TRIMs amount to a sophisticated shakedown with Chinese bureaucrats playing the role of white-collar extortionists. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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For Trump, the Challenges From China Multiply

Posted by hkarner - 30. Mai 2018

Date: 29-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Military tensions add to disputes over North Korea and trade, underscoring a global tug of war

The most important international problem confronting the Trump administration isn’t in North Korea or Iran. Instead, it lies in the rapidly multiplying challenges posed by China.

Events of recent days have underscored that a global tug of war between the U.S. and China is now fully on. Indeed, it has become the dominant feature on the global landscape, and figures to stay that way for a long while.

In short, welcome to the future.

The newest challenges from China are military ones. The Pentagon last week disinvited China from participating in a set of military exercises in the Pacific to protest the way the Chinese have broken their promise not to militarize the disputed Spratley Islands. Those islands lie some 500 miles away from the Chinese mainland, nicely illustrating how China is extending its reach. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How the West Surrendered Global Infrastructure Development to China

Posted by hkarner - 26. Mai 2018

Date: 22-05-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Bushra Bataineh, Michael Bennon, and Francis Fukuyama
Subject: Beijing’s Building Boom

Scholars and pundits in the West have become increasingly alarmed that China’s planned Belt and Road Initiative (B&R) could further shift the global strategic landscape in Beijing’s favor, with infrastructure lending as its primary lever for global influence. The planned network of infrastructure project—financed by China’s bilateral lenders, the China Development Bank (CDB) and the Export-Import Bank of China (CEXIM), along with the newly formed and multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank—is historically unprecedented in scope. But the B&R is only the natural progression of a global sea change in developing economy infrastructure finance that has already been under way for more than two decades.

The truth is that the West long ago ceded leadership in this area to China, a phenomenon that was largely driven not by foreign policy but by domestic infrastructure policy. The same factors that keep large infrastructure projects from getting off the ground in the United States and Europe make Western-sponsored projects in developing countries less viable than their Chinese counterparts.

China’s approach to infrastructure abroad mirrors its approach at home. Projects are evaluated more on their impact than on the specific viability of the project in question. The Chinese tend to overvalue the beneficial economic spillover effects of infrastructure projects, while undervaluing the potential harms, whether economic, social, or environmental. The Western approach, by contrast, is more transactional and focuses on painstaking due diligence concerning the economic, social, and environmental consequences of a given project. These safeguards are in the interests of ordinary people in developing countries. But Western institutions have become so risk averse that the cost and time to implement such projects have skyrocketed. Western governments and the multilateral institutions over which they exert influence, such as the World Bank, must consider making their safeguarding process more flexible if they are not to leave the field open to Chinese monopoly. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Trade Confusion

Posted by hkarner - 25. Mai 2018

Date: 25-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

Auto tariffs, Nafta bullying and China disarray, oh my.

President Trump wants everyone to know he is a master trade negotiator, but this week his volleys look more like a mess than mastery. His China policy is all over the place, Nafta is in jeopardy, and his new threat to impose a 25% tariff on auto imports undercuts his foreign policy and economic goals. But perhaps there’s some grand strategy that will eventually unveil itself and wow the crowds.

The Commerce Department on Wednesday initiated a probe under Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act to decide if auto imports imperil national security. Yes, the killer Kia. This is the same law the Administration used this spring to impose 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminum imports to protect domestic manufacturers. The auto investigation is even more dubious.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross declared on Wednesday that “there is evidence suggesting that, for decades, imports from abroad have eroded our domestic auto industry.” There is? The real evidence is that America’s Big Three car markers became less competitive as an oligopoly, and foreign imports forced them to shape up and make better cars. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Bilateral Foil for America’s Multilateral Dilemma

Posted by hkarner - 25. Mai 2018

Stephen S. Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.

The May 19 deal between the US and China seems to have reduced tensions between the two countries. But, given the global nature of America’s trade deficit, any effort to impose a solution focusing on one country will likely backfire.

NEW HAVEN – The good news is that the United States and China appear to have backed away from the precipice of a trade war. While vague in detail, a May 19 agreement defuses tension and commits to further negotiation. The bad news is that the framework of negotiations is flawed: A deal with any one country will do little to resolve America’s fundamental economic imbalances that have arisen in an interconnected world.

There is a longstanding disconnect between bilateral and multilateral approaches to international economic problems. In May 1930, some 1,028 of America’s leading academic economists wrote a public letter to US President Herbert Hoover urging him to veto the pending Smoot-Hawley tariff bill. Hoover ignored the advice, and the global trade war that followed made a garden-variety depression “great.” President Donald Trump has put a comparable spin on what it takes to “make America great again.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The World According to Trump and Xi

Posted by hkarner - 24. Mai 2018

Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Asian Juggernaut, Water: Asia’s New Battleground, and <em=“ „=““ target=“_blank“><em=“>Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis</em=“>.

Trump’s “America First” strategy and Xi’s “Chinese dream” are founded on a common premise: that the world’s two biggest powers can act in their own interest with impunity. The G2 world order that they are creating is hardly an order at all; for everyone else, it’s a trap.

NEW DELHI – The world’s leading democracy, the United States, is looking increasingly like the world’s biggest and oldest surviving autocracy, China. By pursuing aggressively unilateral policies that flout broad global consensus, President Donald Trump effectively justifies his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping’s longtime defiance of international law, exacerbating already serious risks to the rules-based world order.

China is aggressively pursuing its territorial claims in the South China Sea – including by militarizing disputed areas and pushing its borders far out into international waters – despite an international arbitral ruling invalidating them. Moreover, the country has weaponized transborder river flows and used trade as an instrument of geo-economic coercion against countries that refuse to toe its line. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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