Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘china’

Die Bahn kommt – in China wirklich

Posted by hkarner - 15. Dezember 2019

In Rekordzeit hat China sein Schnellzugnetz ausgebaut, heute verfügt das Land über mehr Gleiskilometer als der Rest der Welt zusammen. Viele Menschen steigen vom Flugzeug um. Noch ist die CO2-Ersparnis gering, doch das soll sich ändern.

Von Georg Fahrion, Peking, Spiegel.de

An einem Dezembertag schließen sich auf dem Shanghaier Bahnhof um 11.59 Uhr die Zugtüren, um Punkt zwölf rollt der G12 nach Peking los. In nur viereinhalb Stunden wird der Zug 1318 Kilometer zurücklegen, eine Distanz wie von der Ostsee zum Mittelmeer. Während der Fahrt reißt das WLAN kein einziges Mal ab.

Bequeme Sitze, großzügige Beinfreiheit, und acht Minuten nach Abfahrt beginnt der Bordservice: Eine Stewardess überreicht jedem Fahrgast ein Getränk, Cracker und Wasabi-Erbsen. Wenig später feudelt eine Frau in schwarzer Dienstmädchenuniform den tadellos sauberen Boden im Großraumwaggon. Um 12.22 Uhr zeigt ein Display an, dass die Höchstgeschwindigkeit erreicht ist: 339 km/h. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die nächste Dekade stellt die Weltwirtschaft auf den Kopf

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2019

Date: 09‑12‑2019

Source: Die Welt Von Frank Stocker

Asia, China, Hong Kong, A man wearing a back pack, stands on a high elevated rocky viewpoint on Victoria Peak, overlooking the Hong Kong skyline at dawn, looking out over the illuminated city as the night transforms into early in the morning.

In der nächsten Dekade wird sich die Rangliste der wichtigsten Volkswirtschaften fundamental verändern. Die Bundesrepublik riskiert, zwischen zwei Fronten zu geraten. Zwar gäbe es einen Ausweg, doch Experten zweifeln an Deutschlands Fähigkeiten.

Nur noch wenige Wochen, dann beginnt ein neues Jahrzehnt. Die Zwanziger des letzten Jahrzehnts waren eine Zeit des Aufschwungs und wurden daher später als „die Goldenen Zwanziger“ bezeichnet. Zugleich begann damals aber auch der Übergang des globalen wirtschaftlichen Machtzentrums vom britischen Empire auf die USA.

New York etablierte sich als zweiter wichtiger Finanzplatz, von dem dann am Ende des Jahrzehnts die Schockwellen des großen Börsencrashs mit all seinen Folgen ausgingen. Ob die Zwanziger auch diesmal golden werden, ist ungewiss. Sicher ist jedoch, dass sich in der kommenden Dekade erneut ein Führungswechsel in der Weltwirtschaft vollziehen wird.

China wird die USA überholen, und die Konkurrenz der beiden Mächte wird die Welt vor eine Zerreißprobe stellen. Deutschland wird darunter besonders leiden. Zugleich werden weitere Machtzentren in Ländern entstehen, die bisher kaum jemand im Auge hat.

Seit Jahrzehnten sind die USA die größte Volkswirtschaft der Erde, im vergangenen Jahr betrug die Wirtschaftsleistung rund 20,5 Billionen Dollar, Chinas Bruttoinlandsprodukt lag bei rund zwei Dritteln davon. Allerdings: Vor zehn Jahren umfasste Chinas Wirtschaftskraft weniger als ein Drittel jener der USA, das Reich der Mitte wächst wesentlich schneller.

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Can Hong Kong Avoid Tragedy?

Posted by hkarner - 28. November 2019

Andrew Sheng, Distinguished Fellow of the Asia Global Institute at the University of Hong Kong and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. His latest book is From Asian to Global Financial Crisis.

Xiao Geng, President of the Hong Kong Institution for International Finance, is a professor and Director of the Research Institute of Maritime Silk-Road at Peking University HSBC Business School.

To protect their own futures, the people of Hong Kong must reflect carefully on the need to end violent protests and work together to address genuine grievances. The alternative is not some fantasy of an independent and thriving Hong Kong. It is a devastated economy, a divided society, and a lost generation.

HONG KONG – Nearly six months after they began, the protests in our city have reached fever pitch. On one particularly devastating day earlier this month, police fired more than 1,500 rounds of tear gas, a police officer shot a demonstrator at point-blank range while being attacked, and protesters immolated a man who disagreed with them. More than 4,000 people have been arrested, infrastructure has been destroyed, and the economy has sunk into recession. And for what?

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China Is Europe’s Problem Too

Posted by hkarner - 27. November 2019

Date: 26-11-2019

Source: The Wall Street Journal By Walter Russell Mead

Only the trans-Atlantic alliance can counter Beijing’s moves in the Pacific.

What will the trans-Atlantic alliance look like in a world focused on the Indo-Pacific? That, more than President Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy, is the question that haunts Europe.

During the Cold War, protecting Europe from Soviet aggression was Washington’s highest foreign-policy priority. That didn’t only mean that the U.S. put troops in Europe. Washington took European opinions seriously, engaged with Europeans, cut deals with them and was willing to make concessions to preserve alliance unity.

Clearly, some of that has changed. The next U.S. president may not share Mr. Trump’s undiplomatic instincts or his affinity for Brexiteers such as Nigel Farage and anti-Brussels figures like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. But will he or she engage in the ritualistic ceremonies of diplomatic consultation with the various chancellors, presidents, commissioners and high representatives that Europeans so love? When America’s most urgent foreign policy worries involve smoothing over Japanese-Korean spats or facing down China in the Taiwan Strait, just how relevant will Europe be? When Europe calls Washington, will anybody answer the phone? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The High Stakes of the Coming Digital Currency War Nov 11, 2019 Kenneth Rogoff

Posted by hkarner - 12. November 2019

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly and author of The Curse of Cash.

Just as technology has disrupted media, politics, and business, it is on the verge of disrupting America’s ability to leverage faith in its currency to pursue its broader national interests. The real challenge for the United States isn’t Facebook’s proposed Libra; it’s government-backed digital currencies like the one planned by China.

SOUTH BEND – Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg was at least half right when he recently told the United States Congress that there is no US monopoly on regulation of next-generation payments technology. You may not like Facebook’s proposed Libra (pseudo) cryptocurrency, Zuckerberg implied, but a state-run Chinese digital currency with global ambitions is perhaps just a few months away, and you will probably like that even less.

Perhaps Zuckerberg went too far when he suggested that the imminent rise of a Chinese digital currency could undermine overall dollar dominance of global trade and finance – at least the large part that is legal, taxed, and regulated. In fact, US regulators have vast power not only over domestic entities but also over any financial firms that need access to dollar markets, as Europe recently learned to its dismay when the US forced European banks to comply with severe restrictions on doing business with Iran.America’s deep and liquid markets, its strong institutions, and the rule of law will trump Chinese efforts to achieve currency dominance for a long time to come. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Von der Leyens erste Grundsatzrede: „Europa muss die Sprache der Macht lernen“

Posted by hkarner - 10. November 2019

Date: 09-11-2019
Source: SPIEGEL

Europas Partner müssen sich nach Ansicht der gewählten EU-Kommissionspräsidentin von der Leyen darauf einstellen, dass sich das Bündnis künftig härter, machtbewusster zeigen wird. Als Beispiel nannte sie China.

Ursula von der Leyen wird am 1.Dezember neue EU-Kommissionspräsidentin

Europa muss nach Auffassung der künftigen EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursula von der Leyen energischer in der Welt auftreten.

„Europa muss auch die Sprache der Macht lernen“, sagte sie in Berlin in einer Europa-Rede vor der Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. „Das heißt zum einen, eigene Muskeln aufbauen, wo wir uns lange auf andere stützen konnten – zum Beispiel in der Sicherheitspolitik“, sagte die frühere deutsche Verteidigungsministerin. „Zum anderen die vorhandene Kraft gezielter einsetzen, wo es um europäische Interessen geht.“

„Wir können die Bedingungen beeinflussen, zu denen wir Geschäfte machen“

Als Beispiel nannte von der Leyen die Handelspolitik. China sei zwar ein wichtiger Handelspartner für Europa. Aber umgekehrt sei die EU Pekings größter Handelspartner. „Wir können die Bedingungen beeinflussen, zu denen wir Geschäfte machen“, sagte von der Leyen. Dies geschehe auch bereits. So freue man sich über jedes ausländische Unternehmen, das an Ausschreibungen in der EU teilnehme, sei es für den Bau von Autobahnen oder Stromtrassen. „Aber wir werden künftig stärker darauf achten, dass sich diese Unternehmen auch an unsere Standards halten, zum Beispiel was Arbeitsbedingungen und Umweltschutzvorschriften angeht.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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America’s War on Chinese Technology

Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2019

Jeffrey D. Sachs, Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University, is Director of Columbia’s Center for Sustainable Development and of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. His books include The End of Poverty, Common Wealth, The Age of Sustainable Development, Building the New American Economy, and most recently, A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism.

In the run up to the Iraq War, then-US Vice President Richard Cheney declared that even if the risk of weapons of mass destruction falling into terrorist hands was tiny, say 1%, we should act as if it were certain by invading. The US is at it again, creating a panic over Chinese technologies by exaggerating tiny risks.

NEW YORK – The worst foreign-policy decision by the United States of the last generation – and perhaps longer – was the “war of choice” that it launched in Iraq in 2003 for the stated purpose of eliminating weapons of mass destruction that did not, in fact, exist. Understanding the illogic behind that disastrous decision has never been more relevant, because it is being used to justify a similarly misguided US policy today. 

The decision to invade Iraq followed the illogic of then-US Vice President Richard Cheney, who declared that even if the risk of WMDs falling into terrorist hands was tiny – say, 1% – we should act as if that scenario would certainly occur.Such reasoning is guaranteed to lead to wrong decisions more often than not. Yet the US and some of its allies are now using the Cheney Doctrine to attack Chinese technology. The US government argues that because we can’t know with certainty that Chinese technologies are safe, we should act as if they are certainly dangerous and bar them. Proper decision-making applies probability estimates to alternative actions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How China Positioned Itself to Dominate the Future of Electric Cars

Posted by hkarner - 5. November 2019

Date: 03-11-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Beijing built the world’s largest EV market, then pressured foreign car makers to use its batteries

SHANGHAI—A little-known Chinese company has become the world’s biggest maker of electric vehicle batteries.

Beijing engineered a scenario that didn’t give the world much choice.

China is by far the biggest EV market, and to boost its standing in the fast-growing industry, China began pressuring foreign auto makers to use locally-made batteries in the country several years ago. One company—Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd., known as CATL—was the only shop capable of producing them at scale.

Auto makers weren’t pleased, but they fell in line. During a visit to CATL headquarters in 2017, three Daimler AG executives displayed their irritation shortly after the meeting started, recalled Jiang Lingfeng, then a CATL project manager who prepared a technical briefing for the visitors. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s median age will soon overtake America’s

Posted by hkarner - 4. November 2019

Date: 31-10-2019
Source: The Economist

Demography may be the Chinese economy’s biggest challenge

Shortly after 9am the neighbourhood care centre for the elderly shuffles to life. One man belts out a folk song. A centenarian sits by his Chinese chessboard, awaiting an opponent. A virtual-reality machine, which lets users experience such exotic adventures as grocery shopping and taking the subway, sits unused in the corner. A bigger attraction is the morning exercise routine—a couple of dozen people limbering up their creaky joints. They are the leading edge of China’s rapid ageing, a trend that is already starting to constrain its economic potential.

Since the care centre opened half a year ago in Changning, in central Shanghai, more than 12,000 elderly people from the area have passed through its doors. The city launched these centres in 2014, combining health clinics, drop-in facilities and old-people’s homes. It plans to have 400 by 2022. “We can’t wait. We’ve got to do everything in our ability to build these now,” says Peng Yanli, a community organiser. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Chinese Chess Game

Posted by hkarner - 3. November 2019

The same is true in business, international relations… or even a chess game. Great ideas don’t always work out as expected. Then what?

In last week’s letter, we discussed some serious flaws in the decision to bring China into the world trade system. People across the spectrum mostly see this now; although they differ on what to do about it.

When the US and ultimately the rest of the Western world began to engage China, resulting in China finally being allowed into the World Trade Organization in the early 2000s, no one really expected the outcomes we see today. There is no simple disengagement path, given the scope of economic and legal entanglements. This isn’t a “trade” we can simply walk away from. But it is also one that, if allowed to continue in its current form, could lead to a loss of personal freedom for Western civilization. It really is that much of an existential question. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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