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Posts Tagged ‘china’

Mnuchin’s Mission

Posted by hkarner - 23. März 2017

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With the World’s Most Billionaires, China Has Its Own Populism Problem

Posted by hkarner - 22. März 2017

Date: 21-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

After several years of decline, China’s economic inequality is rising again. That could spell trouble for Western firms and for relations with the U.S. and Donald Trump

Modern China is the greatest “get rich” story of the past generation—maybe ever. But after a decade of growth lifting all boats, official data contain a dispiriting revelation: Income inequality is again on the rise.

A little-noticed government press release citing the backslide comes as the just-released Hurun Global Rich List shows China with the most billionaires for the second year in a row, edging out the U.S.

Slower broad-based income growth—and increasing numbers of isolated, angry Chinese men in the countryside—is problematic. And as in the U.S., income disparity boosts the chances of political upheaval somewhere down the line. These topics are well known in Beijing, where the Communist Party leadership prizes social stability and fair distribution of wealth as linchpins of its hold on power.

The government’s official inequality measure is the Gini coefficient, a zero-to-one measure of population income dispersion used by the World Bank and others. After declining by an average of over 0.4 percentage point a year from 2009 to 2015, official figures showed China’s Gini coefficient rising by 0.3 percentage point last year.

Other independent measures of inequality have also rebounded. Regional disparities began widening in 2015, in part due to slowing growth in poor northern and western industrial provinces, according to a recent paper from Andrew Batson, China research director at Gavekal Dragonomics. China’s statistics bureau cited slowing income growth for some rural agricultural workers as one reason for the uptick. So-called bare branches, low-income rural men with poor professional and marital prospects, have become a persistent topic of conversation in Chinese society.

While the shift is nascent, there are reasons to think it might continue. The massive transfer of wealth triggered by the privatization of the housing stock in the late 1990s was a huge boon to poor inland provinces, but it has now largely run its course.

China’s official inequality measure rose last year. Here, a farmer works in east China’s Shandong province.

And despite large helpings of rhetoric on reform from top leadership, there is little indication that the market power of big state firms in sectors such as telecommunications will be curtailed to make room for more efficient, job-creating privately run firms.

For firms eyeing China, the implications are profound: Slower broad-based income growth could weaken sales prospects for basic consumer goods. Companies such as Yum China or Coca-Cola, already under pressure from regulatory scrutiny and local competition, could see a slower lift from core consumers.

More rich people in China might seem to present an opportunity, particularly in luxury goods and travel, real estate, and financial services. Firms such as Apple may be less tempted to pursue a pricing strategy based on volume, rather than luxury prestige.

Yet the past few years under President Xi Jinping have showed an inclination to punish conspicuous consumption. Rising inequality data may in fact embolden Beijing to keep up the pressure. Politically, corruption crackdowns to save face with the populace may become more frequent and severe. And nationalism, the old fallback of politicians bereft of other solutions to help disaffected citizens, will become more strident and potent.

That latter could make for choppy waters in the years to come, on both sides of the Pacific—and in the shipping lanes in between.

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The great Chinese inequality turnaround

Posted by hkarner - 18. März 2017

Ravi Kanbur, Yue Wang, Xiaobo Zhang

T. H. Lee Professor of World Affairs, International Professor of Applied Economics and Management, Professor of Economics at Cornell University and CEPR Research Fellow

PhD student in Economics, Cornell University

Distinguished Chair Professor of Economics, National School of Development, Peking University; Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute

15 March 2017, voxeu

Alongside the spectacular growth and extraordinary reductions in poverty – perhaps the most dramatic in human history – the evolution of Chinese income inequality since the start of the reform process in 1978 has been a focus of interest among analysts and policymakers. Sharply increasing inequality became an integral part of the narrative on Chinese development, with some commentators arguing that this was the inevitable price to be paid for the high rates of growth, while others warned of the social consequences of these growing gaps. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Chinese pharma firms target the global market

Posted by hkarner - 18. März 2017

Date: 16-03-2017
Source: The Economist

A new Chinese drug for colorectal cancer could mark an important milestone

The way things were

WALK into the Shanghai laboratories of Chi-Med, a biotech firm, and you encounter the sort of shiny, cutting-edge facilities common in any major pharma company in America, Europe or Japan. Chi-Med has just had positive results in a late-stage trial of its drug for colorectal cancer, which is called Fruquintinib. If the drug is approved both in China and in Western markets it could be the very first prescription drug to be designed and developed entirely in China that will be on a path to global commercialisation.

Given China’s ageing population, higher incomes and rising demand for health care it is clear why innovation in drugs is a priority for the country. Its national market for drugs has grown rapidly in recent years to become the world’s second-largest. It could grow from $108bn in 2015 to around $167bn by 2020, according to an estimate from America’s Department of Commerce. By comparison, America spends about $400bn a year on drugs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Competing with the Chinese Factory of 2017

Posted by hkarner - 17. März 2017

Date: 17-03-2017
Source: Technology Review

Deep manufacturing expertise and extensive supply chains give China a lead that will be tough to overcome.

During his presidential campaign and since moving to the Oval Office, Donald Trump has spoken a lot about manufacturing in the U.S. and its competition with China. Now that China is the hub of so many technologies, from cell phones to drones and solar panels, how do U.S. factories compare?

Harvard Business School professor Willy Shih has visited China many times over the course of a long career in business and teaching, and in January he returned from touring the country’s manufacturing center with a group of students. He spoke to MIT Technology Review about what he saw.

The following excerpts of that interview have been edited and condensed for clarity. Insider Premium subscribers can listen to the full interview here.

What stands out to you about Chinese manufacturing today?

Complex interdependencies. A smartphone typically has 2,000 components, and some of them are large—like the LCD touch screen—and a lot of them are much smaller, from tiny machine screws to capacitors to all kinds of discrete components that might go on the circuit board. The primary assembler of a product might have a number of suppliers who supply primary components, but then each one of those suppliers in turn has a next tier of suppliers, and sometimes a third and sometimes a fourth, and all of these suppliers provide components on relatively short notice. I think the strength of manufacturing in China is the density of suppliers and the ability to draw on them. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Imaginary Enemy

Posted by hkarner - 16. März 2017

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Donald Trump bedroht Chinas Börsenfrühling

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017

Mehr als ein Jahr nach dem Börsencrash in China sehen Analysten eigentlich gute Chancen für eine Erholung des dortigen Aktienmarkts – wäre da nicht Donald Trump.

Ein Handelskrieg mit den USA könnte den Anlegern im chinesischen Jahr des Feuer-Hahns einen Strich durch die Rechnung machen. Wichtig wird Experten zufolge auch sein, ob China nachhaltig und stabil wächst und seine immense Verschuldung sowie den heißgelaufenen Immobilienmarkt in den Griff bekommt.

„Das größte Risiko für Anleger in China liegt in einem möglichen Handelseinbruch infolge protektionistischer US-Politik“, sagt Kate Moore, Chef-Aktienstrategin beim BlackRock Investment Institute (BII). US-Präsident Trump hat der Volksrepublik wiederholt vorgeworfen, den Wechselkurs ihrer Währung zum Dollar künstlich niedrig zu halten, um der chinesischen Exportwirtschaft zu helfen. Das sorge für einen Jobverlust in Amerika. Zudem drohte er mit höheren Importzöllen für Waren aus China. Staatschef Xi Jinping warnt angesichts der harschen Töne bereits vor einem Handelskrieg. „Sollte die neue US-Regierung ihre Ankündigungen wahr machen, drohen ein Handelskonflikt und schwere diplomatische Spannungen zwischen den beiden Großmächten“, sagt Analyst Janis Hübner von der Dekabank. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Gift to China

Posted by hkarner - 10. März 2017

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Trade Truths for Trumpians and Brexiteers

Posted by hkarner - 7. März 2017

Photo of Jim O'Neill

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„Klub der neun Nullen“: Immer mehr Milliardäre in China

Posted by hkarner - 7. März 2017

Johnny Erling aus Peking7. März 2017, 13:54 derstandard.at

 Die Hurun-Liste zählt weltweit 2.257 Superreiche. Nach China und den USA rücken die Deutschen auf Platz drei auf

Peking – Im exklusiven „Klub der neun Nullen“ wird immer mehr Chinesisch gesprochen, sowohl unter den reichsten Männern der Welt als auch unter den reichsten Frauen. 2.257 Milliardäre in 68 Ländern hat der in Schanghai lebende Brite Rupert Hoogewerf für seine neue Hurun-Reichenliste aufgespürt. 629 Superreiche – und damit fast jeder dritte (29 Prozent) – sind chinesischer Herkunft. Der Abstand zu den 552 Superreichen der USA hat sich weiter vergrößert. Die Stadt mit den meisten Milliardären ist Peking (94), die zum zweiten Mal New York (86) den Rang abläuft. Zu den Aufsteigern gehören aber auch die Deutschen, die es auf 109 Milliardäre bringen, 27 mehr als im Vorjahr. Damit rücken sie auf Platz drei vor Indien (100) auf. Die Reichsten unter ihnen sind wie schon 2016 Dieter Schwarz von der gleichnamigen Gruppe und die Familie Karl Albrecht (Aldi), die es auf die Plätze 25 und 29 schaffen.

Deutliche Steigerung Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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