Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘china’

Ein wirtschaftlich durchwachsenes Jahr 2019

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2019


Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – Auf das synchronisierte globale Wirtschaftswachstum von 2017 folgte das asynchrone Wachstum des Jahres 2018, in dem, von den USA abgesehen, in den meisten Ländern Konjunkturabschwünge einsetzten. Sorgen über die US-Inflation, den geldpolitischen Kurs der US Federal Reserve, anhaltende Handelskriege, Italiens Haushalts- und Schuldenprobleme, den Konjunkturabschwung in China und die Anfälligkeiten der Schwellenmärkte führten am Jahresende zu steilen Kursrückgängen an den weltweiten Aktienmärkten.

Die gute Nachricht zu Beginn des Jahres 2019 ist, dass das Risiko einer unmittelbaren globalen Rezession niedrig ist. Die schlechte Nachricht ist, dass wir auf ein Jahr des synchronisierten globalen Abschwungs zusteuern; das Wirtschaftswachstum wird in den meisten Regionen in Richtung seines Potentials fallen und dieses in einigen Fällen noch unterschreiten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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In the future, Eurasia will rule the world

Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2019

Date: 07-02-2019
Source: The Economist

But China won’t have everything its own way, say three stimulating new books

The New Silk Roads. By Peter Frankopan. Knopf; 336 pages; $26.95. Bloomsbury; £14.99.

The Future is Asian. By Parag Khanna. Simon & Schuster; 448 pages; $29.95. Weidenfeld & Nicolson; £20.

Belt and Road: A Chinese World Order. By Bruno Maçães. Hurst; 224 pages; $29.95 and £20.

Asked how he came to write “The Lord of the Rings”, J.R.R. Tolkien replied: “I wisely started with a map and made the story fit.” And so, says Bruno Maçães, when imagining new realities it is natural to begin the same way. These days a revised map of the world might have a radically different focus from previous ones—because a vast, integrated Eurasian supercontinent is proving to be the salient feature of an emerging global order.
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Trump Preparing Plan to Boost AI, 5G Technology

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2019

Date: 07-02-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The two areas represent arenas of growing competition between the U.S. and China

Next-generation 5G wireless promises to bring far faster speeds and greater capacity to wireless networks.

WASHINGTON—President Trump is preparing an ambitious plan to ramp up the government’s role in speeding next-generation technologies such as 5G wireless and artificial intelligence, two key areas of competition with China.

In his State of the Union speech, Mr. Trump said he would work with lawmakers on an infrastructure package, one that would include “investments in the cutting-edge industries of the future.”

“This is not an option. This is a necessity,” the president said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China’s Digital Dividend

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2019

By Longmei Zhang and Sally Chen

Digitalization has created millions of new jobs in China, accounting for between one-third and one-half of employment growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Our Chart of the Week shows employment in two sectors: information and communications technology (ICT) and retailing. ICT added 14 million new jobs for high-skilled workers in the five years through 2016, and the average wage doubled.

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Behind Tech’s Shine, Some Warnings Signs Appear

Posted by hkarner - 6. Februar 2019

Date: 05-02-2019
Source: The New York Times

Chinese consumers have pulled back their spending, blowing a $9 billion hole in Apple’s recent quarterly revenue. China was again a culprit when Nvidia warned last month that its revenue would come in 20 percent below expectations, though the graphics chip maker also blamed slack demand from Bitcoin miners and cloud data centers.

Intel, the big chip maker, cited intensifying “trade and macro concerns” for financial results in January that did not meet expectations. And Samsung, another semiconductor powerhouse, said sales plunged 10 percent in the fourth quarter because of weakening demand for its memory chips from data centers and smartphones.

China, smartphones, Bitcoin and cloud computing have been among the major drivers of the long tech boom, which in turn has powered the global economy for the last decade. The ingredient common to all of these sectors is computer chips, which form the brains of devices and whose ubiquity means they provide early signals about changes in supply and demand. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Reports of Belt and Road’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2019

Date: 30-01-2019
Source: Foreign Affairs By Nadège Rolland

Don’t Underestimate China’s Resilience

With the vast, ambitious investment project known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China meant to pull the world closer, making itself the political and economic center of gravity for more than 60 countries within the project’s sweep. But domestic and international opposition to the initiative has mounted in the five years since President Xi Jinping announced its start. Intellectuals within China have expressed concerns about wasteful spending and overstretch. Several governments that were initially enthusiastic about Chinese investment have faced popular backlash to the terms of the loans and the potential for corruption. And the United States has recently joined countries in Europe and the Indo-Asia-Pacific region in an effort to counter the Chinese endeavor with an alternative investment scheme.

Instead of expanding its “circle of friends” and gaining influence, China seems to have done the opposite, spurring a group of disgruntled countries to band together to resist its predatory practices. Some observers claim that the Chinese leadership fails to understand the dynamics that have led other countries to push back and that this blindness increases the likelihood that Xi’s “project of the century” will soon become a fiasco.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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There Is No Sino-American Trade War

Posted by hkarner - 30. Januar 2019

Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. In 2006, he was appointed to President Bush’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and, in 2009, was appointed to President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Currently, he is on the board of directors of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Group of 30, a non-profit, international body that seeks greater understanding of global economic issues.

Chinese negotiators recently offered to buy enough American products to reduce the bilateral trade deficit to zero by 2024. Why, then, have US negotiators rejected that as a way to end the dispute?

CAMBRIDGE – The current conflict between the United States and China is not a trade war. Although the US has a large trade deficit with China, that is not the reason why it is imposing high tariffs on imports from China and threatening to increase them further after the end of the current 90-day truce on March 1. The purpose of those tariffs is to induce China to end its policy of stealing US technology.

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Who Will Win the Race for AI?

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2019

Date: 23-01-2019
Source: Foreign Policy BY YUVAL NOAH HARARI

China and the United States are leading the pack—and the laggards face grave dangers.

The race to develop artificial intelligence (AI) is gathering momentum, and as the United States and China pull ahead, other countries, especially in the developing world, are lagging far behind. If they don’t catch up, their economic and political prospects will be grim.

For those countries at the back of the pack, the economic challenges will be hard enough: In an automated world, there will be far less demand for the unskilled labor they’ve typically provided. But the political dangers will be equally daunting. AI already makes it possible to hack human beings—to collect data about individuals and then use it to decipher, predict, and manipulate their desires. For example, reporting by a number of newspapers revealed that Cambridge Analytica had done just that with American voters’ Facebook data.

All countries, regardless of whether they are tech superpowers or not, will feel the effects of the AI revolution. But there’s an added challenge for those left behind in the race. To hack humans, governments and corporations need access to enormous amounts of information about real-life human behavior, which makes data perhaps the most important resource in the world. But most of the world’s data is mined by the United States, China, and companies based there. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Österreichische Mentalität passt nicht zur Roboterzukunft

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2019

Leopold Stefan, 22. Jänner 2019, 12:00 derstandad.at

Die heimische Wirtschaft schneidet bei der Anwendung künstlicher Intelligenz schlecht ab. Eine aktuelle Studie erklärt die Gründe

Zuerst sind sie nützliche Helferlein, dann übernehmen sie unseren Job, am Ende revoltieren sie und versklaven die Menschheit: Etliche Science-Fiction-Geschichten erzählen den Aufstieg intelligenter Maschinen als totale Transformation der Gesellschaft. Wer mit solchen Bildern im Kopf auf heutige Anwendungen künstlicher Intelligenz (KI) in Unternehmen blickt, wird enttäuscht beziehungsweise beruhigt sein. Derzeit etwa wertet intelligente Software Messdaten aus Trinkwasser aus, justiert Fabrikroboterarme anhand von Sensordaten in Echtzeit oder durchforstet Personendatenbanken nach empfänglichen Kandidaten für einen persönlichen Anruf vom Kundenberater. All das verbessert die Profitmarge, ist aber noch keine komplette Transformation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Xi Jinping Slowdown

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2019

Date: 22-01-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

China’s weakest growth in 30 years shows the logic of a trade deal.

China’s President Xi Jinping

The logic behind a U.S.-China trade deal grew even more persuasive with Monday’s report that the Chinese economy grew by 6.6% last year, its slowest rate since 1990.

Fourth-quarter growth was even slower at 6.4%, and the real growth rate may be lower still given the unreliability of China’s official statistics. Cement production is down, business confidence is faltering, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.9%, and consumer spending has weakened.

President Trump’s tariffs are only part of the economic explanation. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s decision to slow the pace of economic reform has made the economy more vulnerable to such an outside shock. China’s growth has been built in part on dangerous levels of debt, an unsustainable internal migration from poor rural areas to cities, and state-owned enterprises that distort business decisions to goose official GDP data. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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