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Posts Tagged ‘Deflation’

Der «Draghi-Crash» ist nur eine Frage der Zeit

Posted by hkarner - 13. August 2017

Dank an R.B.
Risikoexperte Markus Krall
von Christof Leisinger 5.8.2017, 08:00 Uhr, nzz

Die Stimmung an den Finanzmärkten ist sehr gut. Glaubt man jedoch dem Risikoexperten Markus Krall, so täuscht sie ungemein. Er fürchtet, dass die Strategie der Europäischen Zentralbank zu einer deflationären Krise führen wird.

EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi heizt mit der expansiven Geldpolitik die Stimmung an den Börsen an.

Die Stimmung an den internationalen Finanzmärkten ist erstaunlich gut. Die Kurse an den Börsen laufen von Hoch zu Hoch, die Renditen an den Bondmärkten sind weiterhin vergleichsweise tief und in Europa erholt sich nun auch der Euro. Dafür seien schwindende geopolitische Risiken, ein anziehendes Wirtschaftswachstum und nicht zuletzt die anhaltend expansive Geldpolitik der Zentralbanken verantwortlich, heisst es. Mario Draghi, der Präsident der Europäischen Zentralbank, schreibt sich diese Entwicklung als Erfolg der extremen Krisenpolitik der Institution auf die eigene Fahne.

Markus Krall sieht das völlig anders. Der Unternehmensberater, der Banken und andere Finanzunternehmen seit 25 Jahren im Risikomanagement strategisch unterstützt, hält die Strategie der EZB nicht nur für wirkungslos, sondern sogar für extrem kontraproduktiv. Am Ende werde genau das unvermeidlich, was die EZB vordergründig vermeiden wolle. Er fürchtet, dass die EZB-Politik zu einem deflationären Crash führen wird. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Is the Deflation Cycle Over?

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2017

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Für eine soziale Geldreform!

Posted by hkarner - 27. Januar 2017

Veröffentlicht am 27. Januar 2017 Gero JennerJenner

Die sogenannte Geldschöpfung aus dem Nichts, von manchen fälschlich als größtes Übel beschworen, ist entweder inexistent oder lässt sich durch vorhandene gesetzliche Kontrolle wirksam verhindern. Diese Kontrolle ist aber völlig unzureichend, wenn es um andere Gebrechen geht, die das herrschende Geldsystem nicht nur imaginär, sondern ganz real bedrohen.

 

Geldwertstabilität

Ludwig von Mises betont, wie wichtig es sei, den objektiven Tauschwert des Geldes zu sichern; denselben Sachverhalt würden wir heute als Erhaltung der Geldwertstabilität bezeichnen. Diese war von jeher aus zwei Richtungen gefährdet, durch Inflation – wenn das Geld seinen Wert verliert, man also mit der gleichen Geldmenge weniger Güter erwirbt -, oder durch Deflation, wenn sein Wert steigt, was keineswegs so erfreulich ist, wie es auf den ersten Blick scheint. In einer modernen Wirtschaft, wo Staat und Unternehmen in der Regel hoch verschuldet sind, wird Deflation zur akuten Gefahr, da beide dadurch gezwungen sind, ihre Schulden mit einem viel höheren Güteraufkommen zu begleichen. Das treibt Unternehmen reihenweise in den Bankrott.

Alles Geld ist gut, so lange Preisstabilität besteht Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Rise of Anti-Establishment Italy

Posted by hkarner - 10. Dezember 2016

By on December 8, 2016  RGE EconoMonitorSteinbock

After the UK Brexit and the Trump triumph in the US, the rise of anti-establishment Italy is hardly a surprise. It is the effect of half a decade of failed austerity doctrines in Europe and decades of failed political consolidation in Italy – ever since the notorious Tangentopoli scandals.

While Italy’s constitutional referendum heralds a political earthquake that will eventually affect both France and Germany, the immediate result is more uncertainty in economy, political polarization and market volatility.

End of an era in Italy – and Europe

Only hours after Italians had casted their ballot in the referendum on constitutional reforms, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi announced his resignation after heavy defeat.

Renzi’s ‘Yes’ camp included most of his Democratic Party (DP) and centrist allies, and the tacit support of moderate voters, including some from Silvio Berlusconi’s Forward Italy (FI). In turn, the opposition lineup featured Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement (M5S), the regional Northern League (NL) led by Matteo Salvini in alliance with the far-right Brothers of italy’s (Fdl) and Berlusconi’s Forward Italy (FI), a significant minority of PD allies, a number of small leftist groups,

According to projections, almost 60% of voters rejected constitutional changes. “My government ends here,” said Renzi from Palazzo Chigi. Moments later, he acknowledged that his pledge to resign if defeated at the polls had been a mistake. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japan’s Great Recession: Lessons for Today’s Global Crisis

Posted by hkarner - 31. Oktober 2016

By on October 27, 2016  RGE EconoMonitor

The Land of the Rising Sun emerged from the prolonged stagnation of the 1990s by carrying out various initiatives such as deregulation, privatisation and fiscal consolidation; these methods remain relevant today for many developed and developing countries.

For some developed countries, the crisis that began in 2008 was far from being the first over the past quarter century. Japan is an example of this. After experiencing rapid post-war expansion and becoming the world’s second largest economy in the mid-1970s, the Land of the Rising Sun entered a period of sluggish economic growth at the beginning of the 1990s. If, from 1981 to 1990, the average annual rate of growth of Japan’s economy was 3.95%, then from 1991 to 2000, it amounted to only 1.19%.

IndexBox analysts can confirm that one of the key features of the crisis was that it was accompanied by price deflation on both commodities and financial assets. From 1990 to 2002, the total net worth of Japanese households fell by 6.7%, to 2.6 trillion yen, while the overall value of land plots decreased by 40%, to 888 billion yen. This land depreciation forced people to postpone their decisions regarding the acquisition of a home or property; this had a dampening effect on the construction sector, which had been the main driver of investment demand pre-crisis. Poor consumer activity was also reflected in the rates of growth of the GDP, and in the price trends and patterns for goods and services: from 1995 to 2010, not a single year was recorded with a positive GDP deflator; 1996 was the only exception to this, when inflation was marked at 0.6%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe May Finally End Its Painful Embrace of Austerity

Posted by hkarner - 9. Oktober 2016

Date: 07-10-2016
Source: The New York Times

Hammond CCPhilip Hammond, Britain’s chancellor of the Exchequer, said this week that the government would borrow more to finance new infrastructure projects.

LONDON — As Europe has grappled with the trauma of a devastating financial and economic crisis, policy makers have consistently relied on one approach to managing the damage — budget austerity.

Shrink government spending by trimming pensions and cutting social programs, the logic runs, and the markets will gain confidence in the tough-minded people in charge. Confident markets make for happy markets. Money will pour in, and good times will roll.

Even as prosperity has remained painfully elusive across much of Europe, leaders have time and again renewed their faith in the virtues of this harsh medicine.

Until now. Europe is re-examining the merits of austerity. Some policy makers are flashing tentative signs that they may be prepared to slacken their grip on public coffers to spur growth and improve the lot of ordinary people suffering joblessness and diminished wealth. In the clearest sign of this shift, the heavily indebted Italy is increasingly inclined to challenge Germany — the guardian of austerity — to loosen European purse strings. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Abe-san investiert

Posted by hkarner - 30. Juli 2016

29.07.2016, Von Heiner Flassbeck, MakroskopFlassbeck

Anders als die deutsche, hat die japanische Regierung unter Premierminister Shinzo Abe begriffen, dass es keinen Wohlstand ohne öffentliche Investitionen gibt. Noch erstaunlicher: Man begreift auch, dass die Investitionen des Staates nicht vom absoluten Stand der staatlichen Schulden abhängig gemacht werden dürfen. Woher kommt die kollektive Begriffsstutzigkeit in Deutschland und Europa?

Der japanische Premierminister Shinzo Abe ist seit Beginn seiner Amtszeit dadurch aufgefallen, dass er sich nicht scheute, herrschende ökonomische Dogmen über den Haufen zu werfen (wir haben das unter anderem hier ausführlich erläutert). Man hat folglich eine ganze volkswirtschaftliche Ausrichtung nach ihm benannt: Abenomics. Das war im Prinzip ein sehr erfolgversprechender Ansatz, aber auch er ist letztlich nicht erfolgreich gewesen, weil es Shinzo Abe nicht gelungen ist, die Lohndeflation in seinem Land zu durchbrechen.

Nun schickt sich Herr Abe erneut an, der Welt zu zeigen, dass sein Land nicht wie Europa darauf warten wird bis ein Aufschwung vom Himmel fällt, sondern dass der Staat auch dann agieren kann, wenn der Schuldenstand so hoch ist wie derzeit in Japan, nämlich etwa 250 Prozent des BIP. Man bedenke: In Europa werden Länder offiziell dafür bestraft, dass sie in einer tiefen Rezession bei wesentlich höherer Arbeitslosigkeit als in Japan nicht mit Gewalt versuchen, den Schuldenstand auf 60 Prozent des BIP zu bringen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Japan’s “Helicopter Money” Play: Road to Hyperinflation or Cure for Debt Deflation?

Posted by hkarner - 26. Juli 2016

Posted on by Ellen Brown, Web of Debt BlogBrown Ellen

Fifteen years after embarking on its largely ineffective quantitative easing program, Japan appears poised to try the form recommended by Ben Bernanke in his notorious “helicopter money” speech in 2002. The Japanese test case could finally resolve a longstanding dispute between monetarists and money reformers over the economic effects of government-issued money.

When then-Fed Governor Ben Bernanke gave his famous helicopter money speech to the Japanese in 2002, he was talking about something quite different from the quantitative easing they actually got and other central banks later mimicked. Quoting Milton Friedman, he said the government could reverse a deflation simply by printing money and dropping it from helicopters. A gift of free money with no strings attached, it would find its way into the real economy and trigger the demand needed to power productivity and employment.

What the world got instead was a form of QE in which new money is swapped for assets in the reserve accounts of banks, leaving liquidity trapped on bank balance sheets. Whether manipulating bank reserves can affect the circulating money supply at all is controversial. But if it can, it is only by triggering new borrowing. And today, according to Richard Koo, chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute, individuals and businesses are paying down debt rather than taking out new loans. They are doing this although credit is very “accommodative” (cheap), because they need to rectify their debt-ridden balance sheets in order to stay afloat. Koo calls it a “balance sheet recession.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Planned Obsolescence of Consumer Sovereignty

Posted by hkarner - 27. Juni 2016

Dank an H.F.

By  Hudson  Hudson

An interview with Bonnie Faulkner’s Guns n Butter show.

Most people think of the economy as producing goods and services and paying labor to buy what it produces. But a growing part of the economy in every country has been the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector, which comprises the rent and interest paid to the economy’s balance sheet of assets by debtors and rent payers. More and more money is being extracted from of the production and consumption economy to pay the FIRE sector. That’s what causes debt deflation and shrinks markets. If you pay the banks, you have less to spend on goods and services.

I’m Bonnie Faulkner. Today on Guns and Butter, Dr. Michael Hudson. Today’s show: The Slow Crash. Dr. Hudson is a financial economist and historian. He is President of the Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends, a Wall Street financial analyst and Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, as well as at Peking University. His 1972 book, Super-Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire, is a critique of how the United States exploited foreign economies through the IMF and World Bank. His latest book is Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Destroy the Global Economy. Due out soon, J Is for Junk Economics. Today we discuss in detail the concept of debt deflation; housing, student loan and automobile debt; the oil market; the stock market; negative interest rates; currencies; and the shrinking real economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Central Banking’s Final Frontier?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Mai 2016

Anatole KaletskyKaletsky foto

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

MAY 6, 2016, Project Syndicate

LONDON – Have central bankers run out of ammunition in their battle against deflation and unemployment? The answer, many policymakers and economists writing for Project Syndicate agree, is clearly No. “Monetary policymakers have plenty of weapons and an endless supply of ammunition at their disposal,” says Mojmír Hampl, Vice-Governor of the Czech National Bank. The real issue is not whether more powerful monetary instruments are still available, but whether using them is necessary – or even threatens to do more harm than good.

There are, in principle, four broad ways to add more stimulus to the world economy. The obvious course is to keep cutting interest rates, if necessary deeper into negative territory, as suggested by Koichi Hamada, economic adviser to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In Hamada’s view, interest-rate cuts work mainly by weakening currencies and so boosting exports. Likewise, Raghuram Rajan, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, believes that “exchange rates may be the primary channel of transmission” for monetary easing, but worries that currency depreciation is a zero-sum game for the world as a whole. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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