Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

US-Starökonom: „Die Deutschen brauchen keine Angst zu haben“

Posted by hkarner - 18. Oktober 2017

Interview András Szigetvari18. Oktober 2017, 07:00 derstandard.at

Trotz wachsender Wirtschaft müsse die EZB ihre ultralockere Geldpolitik fortsetzen, sagt Barry Eichengreen

STANDARD: Der Internationale Währungsfonds warnt vor einem Crash am Finanzmarkt. Investoren gehen zu viele Risiken ein, weil sich mit sicheren Investitionen keine Zinsen verdienen lassen. Zentralbanken haben zu dieser Entwicklung mit ihrer lockeren Geldpolitik beigetragen. Ein Fehler?

Eichengreen: Die Zentralbanken haben das getan, was sie tun mussten, um die Wirtschaft zu stabilisieren und die Inflation anzufachen. Wie bei jeder medizinischen Behandlung gibt es Nebenwirkungen. Aber nur deshalb, weil es auf den Finanzmärkten zu Ausschweifungen kommt, dürfen Notenbanken ihre Kernaufgabe nicht aus den Augen verlieren, und diese lautet nun einmal für Preisstabilität zu sorgen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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BIS Says Globalization Is Answer to Inflation Puzzle

Posted by hkarner - 24. September 2017

Date: 23-09-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Bank’s chief economist says research has implications for central-bank policy

The Yangshan deep-water port in Shanghai, China. Globalization is the most likely explanation for surprisingly low rates of inflation, suggesting that central banks should be patient in seeking to meet their targets and avoid providing too much stimulus, according to the BIS.

Globalization is the most likely explanation for surprisingly low rates of inflation, suggesting that central banks should be patient in seeking to meet their targets and avoid providing too much stimulus, a senior official at the Bank for International Settlements said Friday. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Mystery of the Missing Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 14. September 2017

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

Since the summer of 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion, yet inflation has yet to pick up in the advanced economies. The question that inflation-targeting central banks must confront is straightforward: why?

NEW YORK – Since the summer of 2016, the global economy has been in a period of moderate expansion, with the growth rate accelerating gradually. What has not picked up, at least in the advanced economies, is inflation. The question is why.

In the United States, Europe, Japan, and other developed economies, the recent growth acceleration has been driven by an increase in aggregate demand, a result of continued expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, as well as higher business and consumer confidence. That confidence has been driven by a decline in financial and economic risk, together with the containment of geopolitical risks, which, as a result, have so far had little impact on economies and markets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Central Bankers’ Shifting Goalposts

Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2017

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The Market’s Big Puzzle: What Is Happening to Growth and Inflation?

Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2017

Date: 06-09-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Globalization, the decline of labor unions and the rise of big multinationals may be changing the way the economy works

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans referred to Amazon’s purchase of Whole Foods Market as an example of ‘disruptive technology’ that keeps inflation down.

The world’s major nations are reporting stronger economic growth. Yet what was once thought to be growth’s constant companion is puzzlingly missing: inflation.

The U.S. economy grew at an annualized 3% in the second quarter, but in July consumer-price inflation was up only 1.7% from the prior year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Global Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2009

Posted by hkarner - 4. August 2017

Date: 03-08-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Data complicates plan to remove post-crisis stimulus policies

ECB President Mario Draghi  said the central bank would decide in the fall on the future of its bond-buying program.

Inflation in the Group of 20 largest economies, which account for most of the world’s economic activity, fell to its lowest level in almost eight years during June, deepening a puzzle that confronts central banks as they contemplate the removal of post-crisis stimulus policies.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Thursday said consumer prices across the G-20 were 2% higher than a year earlier. The last time inflation was lower was in October 2009, when it stood at 1.7% as the global economy was starting to emerge from the sharp downturn that followed the global financial crisis.

The contrast between then and now highlights the mystery facing central bankers in developed economies as they attempt to raise inflation to their targets, which they have persistently undershot over recent years. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Coming Financial Volatility

Posted by hkarner - 25. Juli 2017

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The Inflation Target Trap

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juli 2017

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The Business Side of Brexit

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juni 2017

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Everything the Market Thinks About Inflation Might Be Wrong

Posted by hkarner - 8. März 2017

Date: 07-03-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

How much money a central bank prints may be less important to inflation than commodity prices

No number is more important for investors right now than inflation. The belief that it will continue to rise underpins the recent rally in financial stocks and the slump in government bonds. It is key to commodities, currencies and more.

Yet investors are in a quandary: Theories used to forecast it just don’t seem to work.

“I don’t think we know what inflation is. It takes so many different forms,” said David Lafferty, chief strategist at Natixis Global Asset Management, which manages about $900 billion. Inflation is this year’s “wild card,” Mr. Lafferty said.

For decades, the assumption has been that central banks have the ultimate handle on inflation. When inflation goes up, they raise interest rates to quell it; when it goes down, they lower the rates.

Investors care a lot, because bond yields broadly track interest rates. They need to predict inflation levels as well as how central banks would react. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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