Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

Kommt eine neue Finanzkrise?

Posted by hkarner - 5. Juni 2018

61 Prozent der Deutschen sehen in einer neuen Finanzkrise die größte Bedrohung für ihren Wohlstand.

Vor zehn Jahren war die internationale Finanzkrise auf Ihrem Höhepunkt. Seit Jahren blüht die deutsche Wirtschaft, doch die Angst vor der Krise geht weiter um. Eine Mehrheit der Deutschen sieht in einer möglichen neuen Finanzkrise die größte Bedrohung für ihren Wohlstand. Das glauben nach einer Umfrage des Allensbach-Instituts 61 Prozent der Bevölkerung.

Damit rangiert die Furcht vor einer neuen Krise sogar noch vor den traditionellen Angstthemen Inflation (57 Prozent) und Einbrechern (55 Prozent).

Die Meinungsforscher befragten für ihre repräsentative Umfrage im April 1.407 Bürger über 16 Jahre. Besonders akut sind die Ängste jedoch offensichtlich nicht: Weniger als ein Drittel – 28 Prozent – sieht Vermögen derzeit potenziell bedroht. Auftraggeber war die Stiftung Familienunternehmen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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John Weeks – Negative Money: Inflation Targets are Bad Policy & 2% is Nonsense

Posted by hkarner - 9. Mai 2018

Last week we cross-posted Richard Murphy’s critical blog concerning “Why Positive Money is Wrong” (read here). John Weeks sent us this elaboration on Richard Murphy’s article, looking at the issue of the 2% inflation target.

John Weeks is Professor Emeritus at SOAS, University of London, and associate of Prime Economics

The recent article by Richard Murphy clearly and succinctly demonstrated the fallacies of monetary arguments set forward by Positive Money.  I write to elaborate one of his five points, the critique of policy seeking to attain and maintain a specific inflation rate, “inflation targeting”.  Murphy explained the basic flaw, that inflation targeting is dysfunctional and politically reactionary.  My focus is more narrow, that the 2% target of both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank is bad policy because technically unsound.

The European Central Bank aims for a target rate less than 2% of a measure named the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, while the Bank of England uses the so-called CPIH measureBoth measures share the flaw of including of internationally traded commodities, over which neither the ECB nor the Bank of England has any substantial influence. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wirtschaftsweise fordern von EZB Ende des billigen Geldes

Posted by hkarner - 21. März 2018

Die Geldpolitik der großen Notenbanken zähle zu den Risiken für die globale Konjunktur, sagten die deutschen Wirtschaftsweisen.

Die Wirtschaftsweisen fordern von der EZB eine baldige Abkehr von der Zeit des billigen Geldes. Angesichts der guten konjunkturellen Lage im Euro-Raum und der wieder höheren Inflation ist die Einleitung eines Ausstiegs der EZB aus der expansiven Geldpolitik überfällig“, erklärte der Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung am Mittwoch in seiner neuen Konjunkturprognose. Um dabei größere Verwerfungen an den Finanzmärkten zu vermeiden, sei für die Europäische Zentralbank „die Kommunikation einer Normalisierungsstrategie von großer Bedeutung“. Auch Allianz-Chefvolkswirt Michael Heise forderte ein Ende der vor allem in Deutschland umstrittenen Geldflut.

Die Geldpolitik der großen Notenbanken zähle zu den Risiken für die globale Konjunktur, betonten die fünf Ökonomen und Regierungsberater. Denn die anhaltende Niedrigzinspolitik berge Risiken für die Finanzmarktstabilität. So könnte eine überraschend schnelle Straffung vor allem der US-Geldpolitik in Reaktion auf ein stärkeres Wachstum und eine höhere Inflation „zu erheblichen Preisanpassungen an den internationalen Finanzmärkten führen“.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Langfristiges Wachstum: Ökonomen gegen Naturwissenschaftler

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2018

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. The co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, his new book, The Curse of Cash, was released in August 2016.

CAMBRIDGE – Die meisten Wirtschaftsprognostiker haben die jüngsten Fortschritte bei der künstlichen Intelligenz (z. B. den durch das selbstlernende Schachprogramm von DeepMind im Dezember demonstrierten Quantensprung) achselzuckend zur Kenntnis genommen. Sie sehen darin keine größeren Auswirkungen auf das längerfristige Wachstum. Dieser Pessimismus ist mit Sicherheit einer der Gründe, warum die realen (inflationsbereinigten) Zinssätze weiter extrem niedrig bleiben, auch wenn der als Stimmungsbarometer geltende Zinssatz zehnjähriger US-Staatsanleihen in den letzten Monaten um einen halben Prozentpunkt gestiegen ist. Liegt der angebotsseitig begründete Pessimismus richtig, dürften die jüngsten massiven Steuersenkungs- und Ausgabepakete in den USA eher zu einem Anstieg der Inflation führen als die Investitionen anzukurbeln.

Es gibt viele Gründe, die aktuelle US-Fiskalpolitik abzulehnen, auch wenn die Senkung der Körperschaftsteuer sinnvoll war (wenn auch nicht in der verabschiedeten Höhe). Schließlich leben wir in einer Zeit steigender Ungleichheit und fallender Einkommensanteile für die Arbeit (im Verhältnis zum Kapital). Die Regierungen müssen mehr und nicht weniger tun, um Einkommen und Vermögen umzuverteilen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Inflation and Honest Data

Posted by hkarner - 5. März 2018

March 3, 2018

I’m going to wrap up our series on the problems of collecting and analyzing data in the first half of this letter, and then I’ll quickly comment on the Trump tariffs. I think both topics will feature in this week’s Strategic Investment Conference.

I strongly urge you to follow me on Twitter, because I will be very active during and after the conference, sharing my real-time thoughts. My Twitter handle is @JohnFMauldin. Do it now! Now let’s look deeper at the problems with data.

Coming up with the right monetary and fiscal policies is hard even if you know the outcome you want, and even if everyone else agrees. Neither of those conditions is normal. We’re often unclear on our policy goals, and we certainly don’t even agree on them.

We could all argue less if we could trust and use the same data, but that’s not happening, either. I’ve been discussing this vexing problem in recent letters. It’s a multiplex challenge to define what data is relevant, to collect it accurately, and then to analyze it correctly. A weakness anywhere in that chain will compromise the whole effort. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Fed Should Be Careful What It Wishes For

Posted by hkarner - 1. März 2018

Carmen M. Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

Vincent Reinhart is Chief Economist and Investment Strategist at BNY Mellon Asset Management North America Corporation.

Major central banks’ fixation on inflation betrays a guilty conscience for serially falling short of their targets. It also raises the risk that in fighting the last war, they will be poorly prepared for the next – the battle against too-high inflation.

CAMBRIDGE – Empirical relationships in economics are sufficiently fragile that there is even a “law” about their failure. As British economist Charles Goodhart explained in the 1980s, “any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.” Central banks in advanced economies have recently been providing a few more case studies confirming Goodhart’s Law, as they struggle to fulfill their promises to raise inflation to the stable plateau of their numerical targets. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Running the economy hot

Posted by hkarner - 26. Februar 2018

Date: 23-02-2018
Source: The Economist

America will soon conduct an extraordinary economic experiment

WHEN should policymakers stop stimulating an economy? America’s unemployment rate is 4.1%. At such a low level, the Federal Reserve, the central bank, would normally expect inflation to rise. In 2017 the economy grew by 2.5%, spurred by falls in joblessness that cannot go on forever. And inflation—though still below the Fed’s target—has overshot forecasts in recent months. All that might suggest that stimulus has become unnecessary. Yet America is cutting taxes and raising spending. As a result, in 2018 and 2019 it is poised to run an experiment. By stimulating economic activity when times are already good, it will find out what happens when the economy runs hot.

The target at which central bankers usually aim when setting monetary policy is the so-called “natural” rate of unemployment. It is elusive. After the financial crisis, when unemployment rose to 10% but inflation failed to subside, some economists speculated that the natural rate was as high as 6.5%. In hindsight those forecasts were far too pessimistic. Today, after years of non-inflationary job growth, there is a widespread consensus that the natural rate is around 4-5%. But this could be a reflection of groupthink. The natural rate is notoriously hard to estimate. Running the economy hot should reveal with certainty where the limits of the labour market really are. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Where Will We Get the Cash?

Posted by hkarner - 12. Februar 2018

We already knew interest rates were rising. Recent data suggests they could rise significantly more than many expected just a few weeks ago. If so, that will be a big problem for bonds, stocks, and many other assets – not to mention taxpayers who will bear the cost of swelling government debt, consumers who may face inflation, and everybody who will be hurt by a recession.

The combination of a falling stock market and rising interest rates is historically and statistically rare. Normally, when the stock market goes through a correction, interest rates fall. Looking back through history, we see that 1987 and 1994, two years I have been writing about in connection with 2018, were the other unusual years.

I’ve been relatively optimistic on the economy this year, and I still think the year can end well. But given recent events, the path is more challenging now – and the odds of a rough 2019 are growing.

Burn Rate Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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ECB’s Draghi Warns of ‘New Headwinds’ From a Rising Euro

Posted by hkarner - 7. Februar 2018

Date: 06-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal
European Central Bank chief also says the bank ‘cannot yet declare victory’ on the inflation front

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned Monday that the euro’s recent surge creates “new headwinds” for policy makers and should be closely watched.

The comments are the latest sign that a stronger euro—recently trading close to a three-year high of $1.25—could slow ECB efforts to unwind its giant monetary stimulus program.

Speaking at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, Mr. Draghi warned that the ECB “cannot yet declare victory” in its drive to push up inflation in the 19-nation eurozone.

“New headwinds have arisen from the recent volatility in the exchange rate, whose implications for the medium-term outlook for [inflation] require close monitoring,” Mr. Draghi told lawmakers.

The eurozone’s annual inflation rate fell to 1.3% in January as a result of weak energy-price growth, according to the European Union’s statistics agency. The ECB aims to keep inflation just below 2%. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Global Economy Is Doing Great. Be Afraid.

Posted by hkarner - 28. Januar 2018

Date: 26-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

At Davos, financial chiefs are upbeat about the markets, and that is what has them worried

A topic of conversation at this week’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, is how far equities could rise before falling back, and when it might happen. 

Cognitive dissonance is in the air. This year’s mental split allows finance chiefs to believe that everything’s bullish, the world economy is finally in synchronized growth mode and markets are quite rightly on fire—while worrying that it is all just too good to last.

“Everybody’s making money, and the clouds on the horizon don’t look very threatening,” said Stephen Schwarzman, chairman and chief executive of private equity group Blackstone . “That’s enough to create a positive environment.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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