Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Italy’

A heroic sailor faces expulsion from Italy’s Five Star Movement

Posted by hkarner - 24. November 2018

Date: 22-11-2018
Source: The Economist

Captain Gregorio De Falco shows the cracks within the ruling coalition

Seldom has the morale of Italians fallen as low as in 2012 when the Costa Concordia, a cruise ship, was wrecked near the Tuscan coast and abandoned by its Italian captain. Thirty-two passengers and crew died. The giant capsized hulk seemed to symbolise the failure of a country that months earlier had almost sunk the euro. But one man preserved Italy’s self-respect. Recordings surfaced of a coast-guard officer, Gregorio De Falco, furiously rebuking the skipper. His (unheeded) order to Captain Francesco Schettino to “Get on board, for fuck’s sake” became a national catchphrase.

Captain De Falco has since entered politics. In March he was elected a senator for the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (m5s), which has pledged to clean up Italian politics. Yet barely eight months on, this national hero is facing expulsion from the movement’s group in the upper house, having twice put his conscience ahead of his party. On November 7th Mr De Falco was among five m5s senators who refused to vote for a decree on security and immigration backed by the government, a coalition between m5sand the hard-right Northern League. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rom will Budgetloch mit Vermögen der Italiener stopfen

Posted by hkarner - 23. November 2018

Leopold Stefan, Thesy Kness-Bastaroli aus Mailand, 21. November 2018, 17:49 deerstandard.at

Die Regierung setzt auf das Privatvermögen der Bürger, um die Staatsfinanzen abzusichern. Der Plan hat laut Experten einen Haken

Der blaue Brief aus Brüssel ist in Rom eingetroffen. Die Kommission wird ein Defizitverfahren gegen Italien einleiten, gab die Behörde am Mittwoch bekannt. Das hoch verschuldete Land peilt im kommenden Jahr ein Budgetdefizit von 2,4 Prozent an, dreimal so hoch, wie die Vorgängerregierung vorgesehen hatte. Damit sprengt Rom zwar nicht den Rahmen von drei Prozent, wie er im Stabilitätspakt festgelegt ist, aber bei einer Gesamtverschuldung von rund 130 Prozent der Wirtschaftsleistung liegt Italien weit jenseits des Rahmens (bis 60 Prozent). Daher müsste Rom laut EU-Regeln eigentlich Schulden abbauen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Give Italy’s Government a Chance

Posted by hkarner - 19. November 2018

Bill Emmott is a former editor-in-chief of The Economist.

Given the poor track record of populist economic policies, it is understandable that the European Commission’s first instinct is to take a hard line against the Italian government’s proposed 2019 budget. But in doing so, it is condemning Italy to continued economic stagnation, and risking a much larger political crisis.

LONDON – In Europe, hardly anyone has a good word to say about Italy’s upstart ruling coalition, which comprises the populist Five Star Movement (M5S) and the nationalist League party. The only disagreement is between those who want to penalize Italy immediately for defying eurozone budget rules and those who are willing to delay punishment, or at least administer it more slowly. But here’s an idea: Why not eschew punishment altogether and give Italy’s government a chance?

The reason is not that the coalition is particularly likeable. It isn’t. M5S goes out of its way to insult and threaten critical journalists, and the League disparages immigrants and badgers local governments that show hospitality toward asylum seekers who have risked their lives crossing the Mediterranean. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Populism’s Common Denominator

Posted by hkarner - 13. November 2018

Barry EBarry Eichengreenichengreen is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. His latest book is The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era.

What unites supporters of authoritarian, upstart politicians like US President Donald Trump and Brazilian President-elect Jair Bolsonaro is revulsion against the corruption of the political process. But voters will learn the hard way that strongman rule exacerbates rather than mitigates corruption.

BRUSSELS – Following Emmanuel Macron’s election as president of France in May 2017, global elites breathed a sigh of relief. The populist wave, they reassured themselves, had crested. Voters had regained their sanity. Helped along by an electoral system in which the two leading candidates faced off in a second round, the “silent majority” had united behind the centrist candidate in the runoff.

But now we have Brazil’s presidential election, in which Jair Bolsonaro, who displays the authoritarian, anti-establishment, and anti-other tendencies of a textbook populist, won decisively in the second round. A two-round electoral system in which the runoff pits a populist outsider against the last mainstream candidate standing is no guarantee, evidently, that the center will hold.

A similar lesson flows from Italy’s election earlier this year. The country’s electoral rules had been reformed to add a majoritarian element to its proportional representation system, the goal being to encourage pre-election coalition building among mainstream parties. Instead, it brought to power a coalition of the populist left and right. Electoral engineering, it would seem, is not only ineffective in beating back the extremist threat; it can have unintended, counterproductive consequences. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Eurozone’s 19th Nervous Breakdown

Posted by hkarner - 12. November 2018

Date: 11-11-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Why Italy and Brussels are flirting with disaster rather than trimming debt and restoring growth.

It is not an exaggeration to suggest that the European Union stands on the brink of yet another crisis thanks to its fast-developing battle with Italy over that country’s new budget.

Nowhere in “The Art of the Deal” or any similar book does it advise creating the following bargaining situation: Neither party can back down without unacceptable embarrassment, but sticking to their guns will also lead to an unacceptable catastrophe.

Outside Germany, most want to blame Brussels for this sad state of affairs. EU mandarins are insisting that Italy stick to an earlier commitment to keep its deficit to 0.8% gross domestic product rather than the 2.4% the populist coalition now running Italy proposes.

If not for the 0.8% promise made by an Italian government that has been voted out of power by the Italians themselves, the EU is normally entitled to get on a high horse only when a member’s deficit reaches 3%. So why is this fight even worth having? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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An Italian budget showdown underlines the need for euro-zone reform

Posted by hkarner - 11. November 2018

Date: 08-11-2018
Source: The Economist: Free exchange

The bloc’s greatest weakness is not its spending, but its politics

The fate of the euro was always going to depend on Italy. With annual gdp of more than €1.6trn ($1.9trn), about 15% of euro-area output and debt of nearly €2.3trn, it poses a challenge to the single currency that Europe seems unable to manage but cannot avoid. Matters are now coming to a head, as Italy’s new coalition government instigates a showdown over the European Union’s fiscal rules. The disagreement might well become disastrous. But it is also an opportunity for the euro zone to begin building a better, more durable approach to fiscal policy.

Trouble began earlier this year when the populist Five Star movement, led by Luigi Di Maio, formed a government with the right-wing Northern League, led by Matteo Salvini. Both promised budget goodies: Mr Salvini a hefty tax cut and Mr Di Maio a basic minimum income. Such largesse may test the deficit limit of 3% set by the eu’s stability and growth pact. And it seems certain to break other fiscal rules set by the bloc: the government’s initial budget plan is forecast to raise borrowing to 2.4% of gdp in 2019, above the 0.8% target to which Italy previously committed itself and enough to reverse recent, modest declines in its debt burden.

The eu did not take the news well. On November 5th other countries’ finance ministers warned that failure to revise the budget would lead to an “excessive deficit procedure”, and possible sanctions. But Italians are unbowed. Mr Di Maio, now deputy prime minister, argued in comments to the Financial Times that Italy’s fiscal expansion will prove so successful that other European leaders will clamour to follow, citing, somewhat dubiously, faster growth in America after a budget-busting Republican tax cut. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Stresstest: Austro-Banken haben laut IHS-Kocher Aufholbedarf

Posted by hkarner - 6. November 2018

3. November 2018, 13:30 derstandard.at

Schieflage Italiens als Unsicherheitsfaktor für Europa – Mit strengerem Budgetvollzug hierzulande mehr Spielraum für geplante Steuerreform schaffen

Wien – Der Chef des Instituts für Höhere Studien (IHS), Martin Kocher, sieht nach dem Bankenstresstest „keine großen Probleme“ bei den europäischen Banken. „Die Ergebnisse liegen eigentlich im Rahmen der erwartbaren.“ Auch die österreichischen Banken seien auf einem guten Weg, auch wenn sie im europäischen Vergleich etwas Aufholbedarf hätten, sagte er am Samstag im Ö1-„Mittagsjournal. Die Kapitalisierungsquoten der europäischen Banken hätten sich verbessert, aber auch einige Probleme seien durch den Stresstest aufgezeigt worden. Im Moment sei die Ertragslage gut.

Gefahren durch Schieflage Italiens

Die Frage sei aber auch, wie groß ein wirtschaftlicher Einbruch ausfallen könne. Auch wenn der Sektor insgesamt „schockresistent“ sei, berge die „Schieflage Italiens“ gewisse Gefahren vor allem für italienische, aber auch europäische Banken, die Italo-Staatsanleihen in ihren Büchern haben. „Das Problem ist, dass sich die italienische Regierung momentan nicht an Vereinbarungen hält“, sagte Kocher. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s Dangerous Budget Showdown With Europe

Posted by hkarner - 5. November 2018

Date: 04-11-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Erik Jones

Brussels and Rome Are Playing a Game of Chicken

In late October, Italy’s populist government finally got its showdown with Brussels. In September, Italy’s powerful deputy prime ministers, Lega leader Matteo Salvini and Five Star Movement leader Luigi Di Maio, agreed on a draft budget calling for tax cuts and a minimum income for the unemployed, both of which would increase Italy’s deficits at a time when Brussels is pressuring Rome to reduce its debt load. Now Salvini and Di Maio expect European institutions to make concessions instead. It is hard not to imagine that this was their plan all along.

Salvini and Di Maio know that the European institutions will have to push back on any attempt to break the rules for macroeconomic policy coordination across countries—and specifically those rules that force Italy to rein in its debts and deficits. In turn, Salvini and Di Maio plan to argue that Brussels is preventing them from fulfilling their democratic mandate.

This kind of rallying cry will play well in the run-up to the May 2019 elections to the European Parliament. The danger is that it will play badly in financial markets. If market participants start to worry that Italian public debts will begin growing again, they will become less willing to lend to the Italian government, and every Italian will find it more expensive to borrow. This could create a self-fulfilling dynamic leading Italy back into crisis, particularly if the government’s policies undermine confidence in the country’s banks. Hence the European Commission (EC) must seek to enforce the rules—not just for their own sake but to safeguard the European economy as a whole.

ITALIAN STANDOFF
The showdown between Brussels and Rome began in earnest on October 18, when European Commissioners Valdis Dombrovskis and Pierre Moscovici sent a strongly worded note to the Italian government making clear their “serious concern” about the budget’s “significant deviation” from Italy’s prior commitments to lower its debt and deficits. Usually, such a letter would prompt the start of negotiations between the EC and the national government in question. Instead of offering to make concessions, however, Italian Economics and Finance Minister Giovanni Tria responded on October 22 that although Italy’s budget is “outside the norms” for European policy coordination, the Italian government does not believe that its proposal constitutes a financial risk. In fairness, Tria initially wanted to go the usual route of negotiating concessions. But Salvini and Di Maio would have none of it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italien will Kinderkriegen mit Ackerfläche belohnen

Posted by hkarner - 2. November 2018

31. Oktober 2018, 16:38 derstandard.at

Italien hat die niedrigste Geburtenrate Europas, die Regierung möchte diese nun ankurbeln. Ackerflächen soll es laut dem Plan jedoch nur für verheiratete Eltern geben

Rom – Zur Ankurbelung der Geburtenrate will Italiens populistische Regierung kinderreiche Familien mit Ackerland belohnen. Der Staat plant laut Berichten vom Mittwoch, landwirtschaftliche Flächen für eine Dauer von 20 Jahren an Familien abzutreten, die zwischen 2019 und 2021 ein drittes Kind bekommen. Die von der fremdenfeindlichen Lega ausgearbeitete Maßnahme sei im Budgetentwurf für 2019 enthalten. „Es heißt, dass die Italiener zu wenige Kinder haben und dass etwas getan werden muss, um den Trend umzukehren“, sagte Landwirtschaftsminister Gian Marco Centinaio vor Journalisten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rom bereitet Bankenrettung vor

Posted by hkarner - 1. November 2018

Dank an J.G.
31. Oktober 2018, 07:00, derstandard.at

Italiens Regierung trifft Vorkehrungen für Bankenhilfen. Immer mehr vermögende Italiener bringen ihr Geld in die Schweiz und auch nach Österreich

Rom – Regierungschef Giuseppe Conte hat Wirtschaftsminister Giovanni Tria mit der Vorbereitung von Bankenhilfen beauftragt. Rom will vorerst die Ergebnisse des Stresstests für Banken vom 2. November abwarten. Bereits der vorige Premierminister Paolo Gentiloni hatte einen Bankenrettungsfonds in der Höhe von 20 Milliarden Euro eingerichtet, wovon noch 15 Mrd. genutzt werden können. In den Genuss des Fonds sollen primär die Krisenbanken Carige, Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), die Volksbank von Bari und der Credito Valtellinese gelangen.

Kapitalflucht

Mehrere Vermögensverwalter berichten derweilen von einer wachsenden Kapitalflucht vermögender italienischer Familien Richtung Schweiz und Österreich. Und Italiens Anleger werden immer skeptischer: Laut monatlicher Umfrage des Analysehauses Sentix bei mehr als 1000 Anlegern in der Eurozone hat sich der Anteil der Investoren, die ein Ausscheiden mindestens eines Landes aus der Eurozone innerhalb der nächsten zwölf Monate erwarten, von 8,9 auf 13,2 Prozent erhöht. In Italien liegt der Anteil über dem Schnitt: 15,1 Prozent der befragten Privatanleger halten einen Austritt Italiens aus der Eurozone in der Zeit für möglich. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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