Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Italy’

Italiens Banken in Bedrängnis

Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2018

Roms Schuldenmisere bedroht den Finanzsektor des Landes. Erste Regierungsvertreter erkennen den Ernst der Lage und fordern mehr Verantwortungsbewusstsein ein.

Mit der schlechteren Bonitätsnote dürfte es für die Regierung noch teurer werden sich frisches Geld am Kapitalmarkt zu leihen. 

Wien/Rom. Der Haushaltskurs der populistischen Regierung in Rom stößt auch innerhalb des Landes auf Kritik. Zwar hält eine Mehrheit der Bevölkerung die geplante Neuverschuldung für tragbar, doch bei den italienischen Banken rumort es bereits kräftig. Am heutigen Montag läuft eine Frist der EU-Kommission ab, auf die Kritik der Brüsseler Behörde an der geplanten Ausweitung der Neuverschuldung zu antworten. Italiens Ministerpräsident Giuseppe Conte schlug am Wochenende zwar versöhnlichere Töne an: Es werde einen „konstruktiven Dialog“ geben, ein Euro-Austritt sei nicht geplant. In der Sache blieben die Italiener aber stur: Man halte weiter an der Verdreifachung des geplanten Defizits fest. Aber immerhin wolle sich die Regierung Mühe geben, die Haushaltspläne besser zu erklären.

Doch nicht alle in der Koalition sehen die Lage so entspannt. Giancarlo Giorgetti, Sekretär des Ministerrates im Kabinett Conte, warnte am Sonntag, dass die steigenden Zinsen, die Italien seinen Anleihegläubigern bieten müsse, Spannungen im Finanzsystem erhöhen würden. „Das ist ein Risiko für die Banken, das wir nicht ignorieren können“, sagte der Lega-Politiker im Interview mit „Il Messaggero“. Italiens Banken zählen zu den größten Gläubigern der Regierung in Rom. Zugleich sitzen sie auch noch auf 260 Milliarden Euro an faulen Krediten aus der letzten Finanzkrise. Etliche Institute könnten Refinanzierung benötigen, wenn sich die Lage weiter verschärfe, sagte Giorgetti. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italiens Staatshaushalt ist auf Träumen aufgebaut

Posted by hkarner - 17. Oktober 2018

Dominik Straub aus Rom, 16. Oktober 2018, 17:58, derstandard.at

Italiens Budgetentwurf sieht eine markante Neuverschuldung vor und sorgte für scharfe Kritik von Juncker

„Wenn wir alles akzeptieren würden, was uns die italienische Regierung vorschlägt, dann gäbe es harsche Reaktionen aus anderen Ländern der Eurozone: Sie würden uns mit Beschimpfungen eindecken und uns vorwerfen, wir seien zu nachgiebig mit Italien“, erklärte EU-Kommissionspräsident Jean-Claude Juncker. Die Regierung von Giuseppe Conte hatte am Montagabend, nur zwei Stunden vor Ablauf der Frist, ihren Budgetentwurf für das Jahr 2019 an die EU-Kommission geschickt. Er sieht zusätzliche Ausgaben in der Höhe von 37 Milliarden Euro vor, die zu mehr als zwei Dritteln mit neuen Schulden finanziert werden sollen. Das Defizit steigt damit auf 2,4 Prozent des BIP.

Teure Versprechen

Die beiden populistischen Regierungspartner in Rom – die Protestbewegung Cinque Stelle und die rechtsradikale Lega – wollen mit dem Haushalt ihre teuren Wahlkampfversprechen einlösen: Das Rentenalter, derzeit etwas über 67 Jahre, soll auf 62 Jahre sinken; damit können im kommenden Jahr 400.000 bis 500.000 Arbeitnehmer vorzeitig in Pension gehen. Gleichzeitig soll das von Cinque Stelle versprochene Bürgereinkommen von 780 Euro eingeführt werden; davon werden im nächsten Jahr rund sechs Millionen Personen profitieren. Angesichts der gewaltigen Kosten dieser Maßnahmen hat die Regierung die ebenfalls versprochene massive Steuersenkung auf einen Einheitssatz von 15 Prozent fast vollständig auf Eis gelegt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Schattenwirtschaft in Italien macht 12,4 Prozent des BIP aus

Posted by hkarner - 13. Oktober 2018

Den Großteil davon macht mit 192 Milliarden die Schwarzarbeit aus. Auch der Drogenhandel und die Prostitution tragen wesentlich dazu bei.

In Italien machen Schwarzarbeit und andere illegale wirtschaftliche Aktivitäten 12,4 Prozent des offiziellen Bruttoinlandsproduktes (BIP) aus. Wie die Statistikbehörde Istat am Freitag mitteilte, belief sich der Umfang dieser Schattenwirtschaft im Jahr 2016 auf schätzungsweise 210 Milliarden Euro. Den Großteil machte dabei mit 192 Milliarden Euro Schwarzarbeit aus. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy Issues a Euro Dare to Germany

Posted by hkarner - 13. Oktober 2018

Date: 12-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Rome would be foolish to leave the currency, but it could accidentally goad Berlin to push it out.

Italian Minister of Economy and Finance Giovanni Tria

There Italy goes, threatening to blow up the euro again. The uproar over the budget proposal put forward by the new left-right insurgent government has reignited fears that the eurozone’s third-largest economy is on the path to fiscal ruin and will drag the rest of the currency bloc down with it. It could happen, although not in the way or for the reason you may think.

The numbers look bad. The coalition of the right-wing League and sort-of-left-wing 5 Star Movement is proposing to overspend revenues by 2.4% of gross domestic product for the next few years—and that’s if GDP growth meets their rosy assumptions. This is a crisis, we’re led to believe, compared with the 1.6% of GDP deficit Brussels might otherwise have accepted from technocratic Economy Minister Giovanni Tria.

If a 0.8-point difference in budget projections sounds to you like a flimsy reed on which to hang a currency crisis, you’re not alone. The strongest case for the degree of upset this budget is causing is that it’s clear Rome’s new leaders have no plan for paying down a national debt equal to 130% of GDP. Italy is probably too big to be saved by other eurozone countries—and were it to renege on its debts, it could well bring down a smattering of French and German banks with it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Is Pensioner Populism Here to Stay?

Posted by hkarner - 11. Oktober 2018

Edoardo Campanella

Edoardo Campanella is a Future of the World Fellow at the Center for the Governance of Change of IE University in Madrid.

It is often assumed that the rise of populism in Western democracies is primarily a response to economic insecurity and anger toward privileged elites. But the fact is that neither of those sentiments can be understood without also accounting for the political consequences of population aging.

MILAN – The right-wing populism that has emerged in many Western democracies in recent years could turn out to be much more than a blip on the political landscape. Beyond the Great Recession and the migration crisis, both of which created fertile ground for populist parties, the aging of the West’s population will continue to alter political power dynamics in populists’ favor.

It turns out that older voters are rather sympathetic to nationalist movements. Older Britons voted disproportionately in favor of leaving the European Union, and older Americans delivered the US presidency to Donald Trump. Neither the Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland nor Fidesz in Hungary would be in power without the enthusiastic support of the elderly. And in Italy, the League has succeeded in large part by exploiting the discontent of Northern Italy’s seniors. Among today’s populists, only Marine Le Pen of France’s National Rally (formerly the National Front) – and possibly Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil – relies on younger voters. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Yields on Italian Bonds Hit 4½ Year High on Budget Concerns

Posted by hkarner - 9. Oktober 2018

Date: 08-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Selloff of Italian bonds and banks revives concerns over the “doom loop” between weak lenders and fragile government finances

Investors continued to sell off Italian government bonds on Monday as the country’s populist government clashed with the European Union over budget targets.

Yields on the country’s 10-year bonds hit a 4½ year high, rising 17 basis points to 3.593%. The two-year bond yield jumped to 1.557% near its highest level since June. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Italian stocks sold off with the FTSE MIB shedding 2.3%. A potential ratings downgrade of the country’s debt by major credit credit-rating firms also weighed on sentiment, analysts said. Banking stocks also suffered heavy losses, Banco BPM losing 5.8% and UBI Banca falling 4.9%.

The moves put pressure on the broader European market, with the euro falling by 0.4% against the dollar.

“Step by step, the pressure on Italy is ratcheting up,” said Richard McGuire, head of rates strategy at Dutch lender Rabobank. “The danger is of this becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Italian shares and government bonds have been selling off in recent days after the government significantly widened its budget-deficit target for next year to 2.4% of gross domestic product, creeping closer to the EU’s 3% limit.

Late last week, the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, said Italy’s budget plans are a “significant deviation” from the recommended fiscal policies and a “source of serious concern.”

On Monday, Italy’s interior minister, Matteo Salvini, criticized European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Economics Commissioner Pierre Moscovici. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s Old New Populism

Posted by hkarner - 8. Oktober 2018

Paola Subacchi

Paola Subacchi is a senior fellow at Chatham House and visiting professor at the University of Bologna. She is the author, most recently, of The People’s Money: How China Is Building a Global Currency .

Long-term economic and social considerations almost inevitably collide with short-term political objectives. This is all the more true for populists like those in Italy’s coalition government, which recently unveiled an imprudent and even dangerous draft budget.

CANBERRA – Italy’s coalition government, comprising the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the far-right League party, made headlines recently for its new draft budget, which violates European Union rules. But this is hardly the first Italian government to make over-the-top promises and squander public money to pay for them. In fact, when all is said and done, Italy’s new populism is not new at all.

The government’s proposed budget promises to increase borrowing to finance a 2.4%-of-GDP deficit in 2019 and the following two years. While this would not cross the EU’s 3%-of-GDP ceiling on budget deficits, it is considerably more than the 1.6% that the finance minister informally agreed with the EU over the summer. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Italy’s budget plan is so worrying

Posted by hkarner - 7. Oktober 2018

Date: 04-10-2018
Source: The Economist

The populist coalition will not enact prudent reforms—and will undo old ones

ITALIANS are frustrated—and they are right to be. Because of the financial crisis and chronically low growth they are on average no richer, in real terms, than they were at the turn of the century. Some 10% are out of work; 20% live on less than €10,000 ($11,500) a year. In an election in March they voted for change by choosing political outsiders in the form of the Northern League and the Five Star Movement (M5S).

On September 27th a coalition of the two parties unveiled its plan to start the job of lifting the country out of its funk—in the form of their first budget. It is both disappointing and worrying. The government makes no attempt to correct Italy’s low productivity growth, without which both the country’s living standards and its ability to pay down debt cannot sustainably improve. Under previous governments, a lack of reform has held Italy back. This lot go one further by setting out to unpick pensions law—a rare example of a reform that was successfully legislated. The coalition came into office promising a new way of governing. It has fluffed its chance.

The budget proposes a fiscal deficit of 2.4% of GDP next year. It includes goodies for both governing parties. Luigi Di Maio, leader of M5S, hopes that funding for a basic minimum income, his key pledge, will stem his party’s fall in opinion polls. The Northern League, led by Matteo Salvini, seems likely to make progress towards its flat tax. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Achilles’ Heel for Italy’s Populists: Weak Banks

Posted by hkarner - 7. Oktober 2018

Date: 05-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

New government’s plans for higher deficit unsettle investors as much as they do Italy’s European partners

ROME—As Italy’s populist government approaches a showdown with the European Union over its budget, financial-market tremors are hurting the country’s banking system and threatening the economic growth Rome wants to stimulate.

Italian bank shares and bonds have suffered sharp selloffs in the past week as Italy’s government stumbled toward a budget that looks set to break EU rules on fiscal discipline. Rome’s new, EU-skeptic governing coalition between the antiestablishment 5 Star Movement and the nativist League has said it aims for a budget deficit of 2.4% of gross domestic product next year, three times what the previous, pro-EU government planned.

Rome’s optimistic forecasts for growth and tax revenues are expected to draw tough scrutiny from EU authorities, who fear the true deficit could end up dangerously high for a country with an already worrisome national debt. The 5 Star and League’s fiery rhetoric against EU officials have further spooked foreign investors, who fear the European Central Bank—the ultimate guarantor of bond-market stability in the eurozone—is unlikely to support a government that defies the bloc’s economic orthodoxy.

Despite some stabilization in markets since Wednesday, after the government promised slightly smaller deficits in the medium term, Italian bonds and banks remain under heavy pressure.

“It is almost killing the recovery of the banking sector. And this will be a shock for the economy,” said Nicola Nobile, a Milan-based economist for forecasting company Oxford Economics. The danger, he said, is a return of the credit crunch that choked off Italy’s recovery after the eurozone crisis earlier this decade. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy Sets Lower Budget-Deficit Targets

Posted by hkarner - 5. Oktober 2018

Date: 04-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The government said it targeted for 2020 a budget deficit of 2.1% of gross domestic product and 1.8% of GDP for the following year.

ROME—Italy’s government set its budget-deficit targets for 2020 and 2021 at lower levels than previously envisaged, after initial government plans had unnerved financial markets and European authorities.

The government on Wednesday said it targeted a budget deficit of 2.1% of gross domestic product for 2020 and 1.8% of GDP for the following year. The government had initially planned to target a deficit of 2.4% for both years.

It added it will stick to a deficit of 2.4% for next year, triple what the previous government had planned.

With these lower targets, the government appears to have adopted a more pragmatic stance after investors sold off Italian assets following news of the government plans to widen the deficit and keep it at 2.4% of GDP for the next three years. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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