Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Italy’

Britain and Italy are now the terrible twins of Europe

Posted by hkarner - 23. August 2019

Date: 22-08-2019
Source: The Guardian by Martin Kettle

Poles apart for decades, the similarities are now uncanny as populist governments produce ever more extreme policies

Politically, Britain is becoming more like Italy.’

For most of the time since 1945, the politics and government of Britain and Italy have seemed like polar opposites. True, both were important European powers. True too, each had a place among the world’s major economies. Even now, Britain and Italy will be among the select group of economically powerful nations whose leaders will gather in the Second Empire splendour of Biarritz’s Hotel du Palais this weekend for the latest G7 summit.

In the past, that was where the similarities began to ebb away. In politics, Britain was famously stable while Italy was infamously not. British governments were domestically strong, while Italian governments were weak and short-lived. In Britain, leftwing politics was rooted in industrial unionism, while Italy possessed the largest, most modern-minded and most alluring communist party in the west. When Britain looked in the mirror it saw the embodiment of probity and practicality, while Italy was all too often synonymous with crime and corruption. While Britain maintained its autonomy by refusing to join the eurozone, Italy enthusiastically embraced its upper mid-table place in the EU and its membership of the single currency was shamelessly engineered.

Today, the political comparison is marked not by divergence but by an increasing convergence. Politically, Britain is becoming more like Italy. Like Italy, Britain is an increasingly hard to govern country that makes less and less effort to address its underlying economic, social and political problems. Instead, like Italy, Britain appears to be drifting steadily to the right under skilful populist leaders whom the political institutions are proving unable to control. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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WSJ Bias Towards Brussels

Posted by hkarner - 22. August 2019

Date: 21-08-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board
Subject: Italy’s ‘Hail Matteo’ Pass

If Salvini can win an election, Brussels owes him some running room.

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Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini looks on during the debate at the Italian Senate, Rome, Aug. 20.

Italy’s coalition government collapsed Tuesday, and just as well. The awkward entente between the right-wing League and the left-leaning 5 Star Movement has barely functioned for most of its 14 months in power, and if a new election clears the way for one to emerge more firmly—and solely—in control, so much the better.

League leader Matteo Salvini would be the likely winner if there is an election. League’s support has risen to nearly 40% in most opinion polls, from the 18% vote share the party won in last year’s election. This is partly due to the party’s hard line on migration, an issue on which Mr. Salvini has taken a leading role as Interior Minister in the current administration. But his economic chops also played a role in his political ascent. The League has built a reputation as a pro-business party, and Mr. Salvini is pitching a corporate tax-rate cut as a centerpiece of his plan to revive Italy’s fortunes.

That fiscal gambit is at the root of Rome’s recent feuds with the European Union. The accountants in Brussels cling to largely invented economic forecasts to resist Mr. Salvini’s desire to experiment with tax reform. Mr. Salvini’s coalition partners hurt matters with 5 Star’s grandiose promises to expand welfare spending, which is recklessness the EU should discourage.

This wrangling creates uncertainty that markets dislike. Fear of an Italian exit from the eurozone or the EU seems overblown as long as 65% of Italians support eurozone membership and Italians trust the EU more than they trust their national government, according to the most recent Eurobarometer poll. The main threat to political stability and the EU now is that Brussels changes Italians’ minds by thwarting Mr. Salvini’s reform efforts. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A League of its own: Italy’s political mess

Posted by hkarner - 21. August 2019

The Economist, 20/8

“Even the crisis is in chaos”, an Italian newspaper recently proclaimed. As Giuseppe Conte, Italy’s prime minister, prepares to address the Senate today, the possible outcomes are legion. Matteo Salvini, leader of the hard-right Northern League, one of two parties in Mr Conte’s coalition, has withdrawn his support (but not his ministers), so the prime minister may resign without waiting for a confidence vote. If one is held, it could go either way: the other party, the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), together with the centre-left PD and others could give Mr Conte a majority. Forming a PD-M5S coalition with a common programme, however, would not be easy. Given the parliamentary arithmetic, which he seems to have ignored until too late, Mr Salvini has tried to woo back the M5S. But on Sunday, M5S’s leaders slammed the door, describing him as untrustworthy. An election would suit the buoyant League. The forecast? Unseasonably foggy.

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Italy’s would-be strongman suddenly looks more vulnerable

Posted by hkarner - 17. August 2019

Date: 15-08-2019
Source: The Economist

Salvini stumbles

But nothing is predictable about Italian politics

Hubris is an occupational hazard for political leaders. Two of Italy’s recent prime ministers, Silvio Berlusconi and Matteo Renzi, stumbled just when it seemed they could do whatever they wanted. (Mr Renzi wanted to change the constitution; Mr Berlusconi wanted to hold “bunga bunga” sex parties. In both cases, voters objected.)

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Now Matteo Salvini, the leader of the populist Northern League, wants to ditch his coalition partners in the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (m5s), bring down the government that is led by Giuseppe Conte, an independent, and hustle the country into a snap election so as to give himself what he has termed “full powers”. This would enable him to impose, among other things, a radically expansionist budget for 2020. Mr Salvini claims that a “fiscal shock” is needed to jolt the moribund Italian economy back to life. Critics fear it could instead pitch the country, which has debts of over 130% of gdp, into a new financial crisis, along with the rest of the euro zone.

So the stakes were high when, on August 9th, the League tabled a Senate motion of no confidence in Mr Conte. Mr Salvini, a deputy prime minister, did not, however, withdraw either himself or his ministers from the cabinet—a move that would have made the fall of the government inevitable. And on August 13th, a hastily reconvened upper house rejected the League’s demand for a confidence debate to be held the very next day.

The luckless Mr Conte will still have to go to parliament to explain a crisis that is not of his making. But he will start his visit to the two chambers on August 20th, this date having been set by a majority that for the first time united the m5s with the opposition, centre-left Democratic Party (pd) and a handful of regionalists and independents. That raised the possibility that Mr Conte, who belongs to neither party in his coalition, might not get the thumbs-down, or that, if he resigned, a new government could even be formed, backed by the Five Stars and the pd. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Salvinis „Italexit“-Drohung Der Mann, der den Euro zerstören könnte

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2019

Matteo Salvini will italienischer Premierminister werden – im Wahlkampf kokettiert der Rechtspopulist mit dem Euro-Austritt. An den Finanzmärkten sorgt er damit für Entsetzen.

Von Hans-Jürgen Schlamp, Rom, Spiegel.de

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Matteo Salvini: Dogmen und Vorschriften aus Brüssel sind „nicht heilig“
Dienstag, 13.08.2019 19:22 Uhr

Es ist wieder so weit: Die nächste Italien-Krise rollt an. An der Mailänder Börse sind die Aktienkurse in den vergangenen Tagen kräftig gefallen, vor allem jene von italienischen Banken und von Unternehmen, die weitgehend auf den Inlandsmarkt ausgerichtet sind. Post, Telekom, Gas. Die Anleger sind hochnervös.

Der berühmte „Spread“ steigt wieder. Das heißt: Italiens Finanzminister Giovanni Tria muss derzeit für eine Schuldverschreibung mit zehnjähriger Laufzeit dem Käufer 1,7 Prozent Zinsen bieten. Deutschlands Finanzminister Olaf Scholz bekommt dagegen von jedem, der seine Staatsanleihen haben will, noch 0,6 Prozent Zinsen dazu. Geradezu verlockend für einen Finanzminister, aber Scholz will eigentlich gar keine neuen Schulden machen.

Der parteilose Kollege in Rom dagegen soll viele, sehr viele neue Kredite aufnehmen. So will es seine gerade auseinanderfliegende Regierung, vor allem der kleinere, aber weit durchsetzungsstärkere Partner, die rechte Lega von Matteo Salvini. Dabei gehört Italien längst zu den Ländern mit der weltweit höchsten Schuldenquote. Um fast 40 Prozent sind die Staatsschulden in den vergangenen zehn Jahren gestiegen, auf etwa 2,32 Billionen Euro im vorigen Jahr. Das entspricht 132 Prozent der jährlichen Wirtschaftskraft des Landes. Nur Griechenland ist in Europa noch schlimmer dran. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europeans just love idiots! (all Salvini does is campaigning, he never works)

Posted by hkarner - 11. August 2019

Date: 10-08-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject: Political Gambits Threaten More Economic Upheaval in Europe

U.K. leader’s Brexit pledge and Italian push for power are set to test region’s economies

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Italian politician Matteo Salvini,
Europe is facing a season of political turmoil in its North and South.

In the U.K. and Italy, charismatic right-wing leaders are pursuing high-risk bids for greater power that entail clashes with the European Union, potentially disrupting their nations’ economies and Europe’s already faltering growth.

The British economy is already taking a hit from the risk of a chaotic Brexit on Halloween, the latest date set for the U.K. to leave the EU. The U.K. economy, the world’s fifth largest, contracted at an annualized rate of 0.8% in the second quarter as business confidence plunged, according to data released on Friday.

It was Britain’s first quarterly contraction since 2012.

The weak data, and political turmoil over Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s determination to take the U.K. out of the EU on Oct. 31, pushed the British pound down to a multiyear low of $1.2057, before it recovered somewhat. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The most dangerous man in Europe

Posted by hkarner - 13. Juli 2019

Date: 11-07-2019
Source: The Economist

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How to defuse the threat that Matteo Salvini poses to the euro
There needs to be a deal between the European Commission and Italy

On july 8th euro-zone watchers breathed a sigh of relief. The zone’s 19 finance ministers backed the European Commission’s decision that Italy should not be penalised for allowing its public-debt burden to rise in 2018 in violation of the eu’s fiscal rules. Thanks to savings of 0.4% of gdp for the current year, cobbled together by Italy’s governing coalition, a damaging confrontation seems to have been resolved.

In truth, however, it has merely been postponed. The grim reality of Italy’s public finances remains unchanged. Its deficit is on course to exceed the eu’s threshold of 3% of gdp in 2020, its debt is sky high and, worst of all, it is plagued by a persistent absence of growth. If Italy is to dispel the ever-present air of crisis, a much more far-sighted deal will be needed.

Since the euro was introduced, over 20 years ago, Italy has steadily fallen behind the rest of Europe. The average citizen in Germany, France and Spain is a fifth better off, in real terms, than in 1999; incomes in eastern Europe have more than doubled. But the average Italian is no richer. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Salvini drängt auf Steuersenkung und droht mit Rücktritt

Posted by hkarner - 23. Juni 2019

 Na, sein Rücktritt wäre ja ein Fortschritt! Il suo retiro sarebbe una fortuna! (hfk)

Dominik Straub aus Rom, 21. Juni 2019, 11:22, derstandard.at

Das drohende Defizitverfahren die EU hat das Potenzial, die italienische Regierung zu Fall zu bringen

Rom – „Italien braucht eine mutige Steuerreform, wie sie US-Präsident Donald Trump durchgeführt hat“, betont Italiens Innenminister Matteo Salvini in einem Interview mit dem „Corriere della Sera“. Es sei seine Pflicht, diese umzusetzen. „Sollte ich wegen Brüssel nicht in der Lage sein, dies zu tun, verabschiede ich mich und gehe“, sagt der 46-jährige Vizepremier. „Mutig“ bedeute, dass die Steuerbelastung in Italien um mindestens zehn Milliarden Euro gesenkt werden müsse. „Es reicht mir mit diesen Käfigen, in denen die Zukunft eingesperrt wird, und mit dem Ersticken unseres potenziellen Wachstums.“ Der Lega-Chef verlangt schon seit Monaten die Einführung einer Pauschalsteuer von 15 Prozent auf allen Einkommen unter 50.000 Euro im Jahr. Das würde der Wirtschaft einen Wachstumsimpuls verleihen, der die Einnahmenausfälle für den Staat mehr als kompensieren würde, glaubt Salvini. Laut Finanzexperten würde die von Salvini vorgeschlagene Steuersenkung aber zunächst einmal zwischen 30 und 40 Milliarden Euro kosten. Der Vizepremier hat durchblicken lassen, dass er sich mit einer schrittweisen Einführung zufriedengeben könnte, wodurch die Kosten zumindest für das Jahr 2020 auf zehn Milliarden begrenzt werden könnten.

Schuldendienst so hoch wie Bildungsausgaben

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Italien will Schuldenregeln ändern, statt sie einzuhalten

Posted by hkarner - 21. Juni 2019

Dominik Straub aus Rom, 20. Juni 2019, 18:29, standard.at

Rom bleibt im Budgetstreit mit Brüssel stur. Anstatt Einsparungen vorzulegen, verlangt Regierungschef Conte neue Haushaltsregeln

Aufgrund neuer Daten kann ich versichern, dass sich sowohl der Staatshaushalt 2018 als auch derjenige des laufenden Jahres im Einklang mit dem Stabilitätspakt befindet“, heißt es in einem Brief, den Regierungschef Giuseppe Conte am Mittwochabend an die EU-Kommission und an die Staats- und Regierungschefs geschickt hat. out.stream powered by ADITION Sowohl bei den Ausgaben als auch bei den Einnahmen sei es im Vergleich zu den letzten Schätzungen zu „erheblichen Verbesserungen“ gekommen. Damit könne das Defizit im laufenden Jahr auf 2,1 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts gedrückt werden – womit es nur unwesentlich über dem mit Brüssel vereinbarten Fehlbetrag von 2,04 Prozent liege.

Verfahren „unverständlich“

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Europe’s Italian Stranglehold

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juni 2019

Date: 17-06-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

The EU could punish Rome for pushing pro-growth policy.

Salvini and DiMaio..

Italian Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini is favored to become the country’s next Prime Minister, and European Union mandarins are improving the euroskeptic’s chances. See how Brussels is handling its latest fiscal dispute with Rome.

The European Commission is on course to impose a fine of up to €3.5 billion on Rome to punish it for breaking EU budget rules. Governments are supposed to keep their fiscal deficit below 3% of gross domestic product and total debt under 60% of GDP. Many EU members violate these strictures, but Rome is unusually bad. Italian debt is expected to reach more than 135% in 2020, and the Commission frets about Rome’s deficit, which ran 2.1% in 2018.

This triggered a fiscal showdown last year, which ended when Rome agreed to make minor changes to its budget and Brussels pretended the numbers would add up. But now the EU complains that Italy’s motley left-right coalition government isn’t abiding by that deal and is teeing up another fiscal battle. A June 5 Commission report recommends opening up an “excess deficit procedure,” though it would take weeks and several bureaucratic hurdles before a fine is imposed. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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