Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Italy’

Ist der Euro noch zu retten?

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juni 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

NEW YORK – Der Euro steuert möglicherweise auf eine neuerliche Krise zu. Italien, die drittgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Eurozone, hat eine Regierung gewählt, die sich am besten als euroskeptisch beschreiben lässt. Dies sollte niemanden überraschen. Die Gegenreaktion in Italien ist eine weitere vorhersehbare (und vorhergesagte) Episode in der langen Saga eines schlecht konzipierten Währungssystems, in dem die dominante Macht, Deutschland, die notwendigen Reformen behindert und auf einer Politik beharrt, die die dem System innewohnenden Probleme verschärft, wobei sie eine Rhetorik verwendet, die scheinbar die Absicht verfolgt, Leidenschaften anzuheizen.

Italien hat sich seit der Einführung des Euro wirtschaftlich schlecht entwickelt. Sein reales (inflationsbereinigtes) BIP des Jahres 2016 war dasselbe wie das des Jahres 2001. Aber auch für die Eurozone als Ganze läuft es nicht gut. Zwischen 2008 und 2016 ist ihr reales BIP insgesamt um bloße 3% gestiegen. Im Jahr 2000 – ein Jahr nach Einführung des Euro – war die US-Volkswirtschaft lediglich 13% größer als die der Eurozone; 2016 waren es 26%. Nach einem realen Wachstum von rund 2,4% in 2017 – was nicht genug war, um die durch ein Jahrzehnt der Misere verursachten Schäden auszugleichen – ist die Wirtschaft der Eurozone nun erneut ins Stocken geraten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Rise of the Autocrats: Liberal Democracy Is Under Attack

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juni 2018

Date: 14-06-2018
Source: DER SPIEGEL

Autocratic leaders and wannabes, from Putin to Trump, are making political inroads around the world. In recent years, Western liberal democracy has failed to live up to some of its core promises, helping to fuel the current wave of illiberalism.

The Era of the Autocrats

Russian President Vladimir Putin isn’t actually all that interested in football. He’s more of a martial arts guy, and he loves ice hockey. But when the World Cup football championship gets started on Thursday in Moscow, Putin will strive to be the perfect host. The tournament logo is a football with stars trailing behind it, evoking Sputnik, and a billion people will be tuning in as Putin presents Russia as a strong and modern country.

During the dress rehearsal, last summer’s Confed Cup, Putin held an opening address in which he spoke of „uncompromising, fair and honest play … until the very last moments of the match.“ Now, it’s time for the main event, the World Cup, giving Putin an opportunity to showcase his country to the world. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wie demokratisch ist der Euro?

Posted by hkarner - 12. Juni 2018

Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy, Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science, and, most recently, Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy.

SAN SERVOLO, ITALIEN – Italiens Präsident lehnte kürzlich die Ernennung des Euroskeptikers Paolo Savona zum Finanzminister einer Regierung der Parteienallianz zwischen Fünf-Sterne-Bewegung und Lega Nord ab. Nun stellt sich die Frage, ob er damit die Demokratie in seinem Land schützte oder schwächte. Abgesehen von verfassungsrechtlichen Beschränkungen im speziell italienischen Kontext, geht es bei dieser Frage im Kern um demokratische Legitimität. Die schwierigen Probleme in diesem Zusammenhang müssen auf prinzipielle und angemessene Weise angegangen werden, wenn die Gesundheit unserer liberalen Demokratien wiederhergestellt werden soll.

Der Euro stellt eine vertragliche Verpflichtung dar, aus der es im Rahmen der geltenden Spielregeln keine klare Austrittsmöglichkeit gibt. Präsident Sergio Mattarella und seine Verteidiger weisen darauf hin, dass ein Euro-Austritt im Wahlkampf, der die populistische Koalition an die Macht brachte, nicht zur Debatte stand und dass mit Savonas Ernennung eine Finanzmarktkrise und wirtschaftliches Chaos gedroht hätten. Mattarellas Kritiker hingegen argumentieren, dass er seine Autorität überschritten und den Finanzmärkten damit ermöglicht habe, sich gegen die Ernennung eines Ministers einer vom Volk gewählten Regierung zu stellen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Italian Economy’s Moment of Truth

Posted by hkarner - 11. Juni 2018

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Advisory Board Co-Chair of the Asia Global Institute in Hong Kong, and Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

Unlike many other European countries, Italy still has not restored economic growth to its pre-crisis level – a fundamental failing that lies at the heart of many of its political problems. Now that a new anti-establishment government is taking power, it remains to be seen if the economy will be remade, or broken further.

MILAN – Italy and Europe are at an inflection point. After an election in March in which the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the far-right League party captured a combined parliamentary majority, followed by months of uncertainty, Italy has become the first major EU member state to be governed by a populist coalition.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Debt Clock Ticking

Posted by hkarner - 11. Juni 2018

June 8, 2018

—Benjamin Franklin

What can be added to the happiness of a man who is in health, out of debt, and has a clear conscience?

—Adam Smith

There are no shortcuts when it comes to getting out of debt.

—Dave Ramsey

Modern slaves are not in chains, they are in debt.

—Anonymous

Debt isn’t always a form of slavery, but those old sayings didn’t come from nowhere. You can find hundreds of quotes on the Internet discussing the problems of debt. Debt traps borrowers, lenders, and innocent bystanders, too. If debt were a drug, we would demand it be outlawed.

The advantage of debt is it lets you bring the future into the present, buying things you couldn’t afford if you had to pay full price now. This can be good or bad, depending on what you buy. Going into debt for education that will raise your income, or for factory equipment that will increase your output, can be positive. Debt for a tropical vacation, probably not.

And that’s our core economic problem. The entire world went into debt for the equivalent of tropical vacations and, having now enjoyed them, realizes it must pay the bill. The resources to do so do not yet exist. So, in the time-honored tradition of lenders everywhere, we extend and pretend. But with our ability to pretend almost gone, we’re heading to the Great Reset. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Italy’s new government wants to deport 500,000 people

Posted by hkarner - 8. Juni 2018

Date: 07-06-2018
Source: The Economist

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Matteo Salvini wastes no time

SOMETIMES silence speaks louder than words. Italy’s interior minister, Matteo Salvini, did not utter a word of condemnation of the murder of Soumaila Sacko, a 29-year-old Malian trade unionist, on June 2nd. Mr Sacko was campaigning to improve the miserable conditions of thousands of African day-labourers who pick fruit and vegetables in Calabria, the “toe” of Italy. Some, like Mr Sacko, are legal residents. Others are not. Mr Sacko was helping two other immigrants find metal sheets to use as roofs for their shacks when a man opened fire from a car. It was left to the prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, to express his condolences three days later in a speech asking the Senate for a vote of confidence in Italy’s new, populist government (he duly obtained the backing of the upper house and, on June 6th, that of the lower house, the Chamber of Deputies).

Mr Conte, a law professor, belongs neither to the Northern League, which Mr Salvini leads, nor to the Five Star Movement (M5S), the senior partner in the coalition. He was originally proposed by M5S, and his somewhat more sensitive approach reflected differences between the two parties over immigration that could yet undermine their collaboration. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Fall and Rise of Matteo Salvini

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juni 2018

Date: 06-06-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Erik Jones

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The Lega Leader Will Make or Break Italy

A week is a long time in politics, particularly when the fate of a country hangs on the ambitions of a single individual in the way that Italy’s fate now hangs on those of Lega leader (and now Interior Minister) Matteo Salvini. The week started with the collapse of a governing coalition between two populist parties, Lega and the Five Star Movement (M5S), and ended with essentially that same government swearing the oath of office. There were many bit players in the drama, but Salvini was the protagonist. The takeaway is simple: this government will last only so long as Salvini has his way.

MUSICAL CHAIRS

The drama began on Sunday, May 27, when Salvini pulled the plug on a coalition government between Lega and M5S. Salvini was insulted by the unwillingness of Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, to appoint the Euroskeptic economist Paolo Savona as minister of economy and finance. With his strength in the polls rising, Salvini declared himself ready to face new elections. Rather than allow anyone else to take the economics and finance portfolio, Salvini would rather campaign for a larger presence in parliament.

Mattarella had good reasons to reject Savona, which he explained at length to the Italian people. Although a well-known economist with solid experience in politics and government, Savona is not a member of either Lega or M5S. Since the economy and finance minister will have to decide how to balance the government’s resources, he should have his own political power base or else he will lack autonomy. Moreover, Savona has taken positions on Italy’s membership in the euro—he has called the currency a “German cage” and suggested making contingency plans for exiting it—that are likely to scare international investors. Mattarella argued that he had a responsibility not to unnecessarily put the wealth and savings of ordinary Italians at risk—Savona was too much of a gamble. When Mattarella rejected him, Salvini pulled the plug on the whole government. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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It’s high time for a two speed Europe

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juni 2018

Date: 05-06-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject: Italy’s Euroskeptic Agenda Reflects Weakening Public Support for the EU

In his inaugural speech, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte says his government will challenge eurozone rules

ROME—Italy’s new government is laying the groundwork to challenge Europe’s financial orthodoxy and immigration rules, setting out a euroskeptic policy agenda in a country where public frustration with the European Union has supplanted once-broad support.

In his inaugural speech to Parliament on Tuesday, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said his government would push for a change of the rules underpinning the eurozone to spur growth and cut the country’s massive debt, which he said austerity policies helped worsen.

“A new wind” is blowing in Italy, said Mr. Conte, who heads a government supported by the maverick 5 Star Movement and the hard-right League, which have come out strongly against the eurozone’s limits on public spending. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Italy Is Flirting with Euro Exit and Spain Isn’t

Posted by hkarner - 5. Juni 2018

Date: 04-06-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Spain suffered far more than Italy during the euro crisis, but the major Spanish parties are committed to staying in the common currency

Italy and Spain got new governments last week. But while Italy’s change of leadership led markets on a roller coaster, Spain’s was met with a yawn. The reason: Their economies have followed different paths, and so have their attitudes to the euro. The populists who make up Italy’s new government have toyed with exiting the common currency, whereas all of Spain’s major parties are committed to staying in.

This isn’t what you would have predicted six years ago; Spain suffered far more than Italy during the euro crisis. But it also reformed its economy much more and has enjoyed a much stronger recovery; gross domestic product is now above its precrisis peak. By contrast, Italy’s economic problems long predate the euro, and its failure to fix them has left GDP 5% below its prior peak and voters receptive to radical economic prescriptions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Der lange, heiße italienische Sommer

Posted by hkarner - 4. Juni 2018

Carmen M. Reinhart is Professor of the International Financial System at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.

STOCKHOLM – Das politische Chaos und die sozialen Unruhen, die die aktuelle Krise in Italien antreiben, sollten niemanden überraschen. Im Gegenteil: Unklar war lediglich der genaue Zeitpunkt, an dem sich die Lage zuspitzen würde. Dies ist jetzt geschehen.

Das italienische Pro-Kopf-BIP liegt etwa 8% unterhalb des Niveaus von 2007, dem Jahr vor der weltweiten Finanzkrise, die die Große Rezession auslöste. Und die Vorhersagen des Internationalen Währungsfonds für 2023 lassen erwarten, dass sich Italien selbst dann noch nicht von den kumulierten Leistungseinbußen des letzten Jahrzehnts erholt haben wird.

Von den elf hoch entwickelten Volkswirtschaften, die von der schweren Finanzkrise der Jahre 2007-2009 betroffen waren, ist nur Griechenland in eine tiefere und langwierigere Depression gestürzt. Dabei waren Griechenland und Italien zu Beginn der Krise die beiden Länder mit der höchsten Schuldenlast (109% bzw. 102% des BIP) – und entsprechend schlecht dafür gerüstet, auf große Wirtschaftsschocks reagieren zu können. Seit dem Ausbruch der Krise vor zehn Jahren führten wirtschaftliche Stagnation und teure Bankprobleme dazu, dass die Schulden trotz der außergewöhnlich niedrigen Zinsen der letzten Zeit sogar noch stiegen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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