A First German ECB Chief? It Looks Increasingly Likely

Date: 04-04-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Prospect of a hawkish central bank leader coincides with an economic slowdown in Europe, potentially spooking markets

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, would leave her imprint on a critical European institution if she succeeds in naming Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, or another German to the lead the European Central Bank.

Germany is edging toward a prize it has coveted for two decades: The presidency of the European Central Bank.

With Europe’s economy stumbling and its traditional political alliances threatened by left- and right-wing populism, the region’s leading economies—France and Germany—are zeroing in on a possible deal in which Berlin clinches the ECB job, say European officials.

Naming a German to succeed Italian Mario Draghi in November would be a significant coup for Chancellor Angela Merkel, helping to placate critics in her own conservative camp and leaving her imprint on a critical European institution long after she steps down.

The Shortcomings of Merkel’s European Policies

Date: 15-03-2019
Source: DER SPIEGEL

Patronizing, Frustrating and Divisive

Germany had an historic opportunity to forge a more integrated Europe with French President Emmanuel Macron. Instead, it hesitated, dithered and ultimately missed its chance under Chancellor Angela Merkel. History will judge its failure unfavorably.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel

How will future historians look back at this moment in time? At Germany and its role in Europe; indeed, in the world? It’s very possible they will view these years as the pivotal juncture at which Germany missed its chance with Europe. Because German Chancellor Angela Merkel no longer had the energy to seize the historic opportunity offered by Emmanuel Macron and his great enthusiasm for Europe. Because her Social Democratic coalition partner, paralyzed by fears of its own survival, was no longer forging any foreign policy ideas. Because the Germans, as the historian Timothy Garton Ash remarked in DER SPIEGEL last year, fail to grasp the „seriousness of the hour.“

https://www.spiegel.de/plus/historiker-deutschland-hat-den-ernst-der-stunde-nicht-begriffen-a-00000000-0002-0001-0000-000158383058

All this can be explained away, but it will hardly soften the judgement of history: That when nothing less than the fate of Europe was at stake, Germany had no foreign policy to offer — at least not any courageous foreign policy. Had Merkel and German Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats been in charge in 1999, it’s unlikely the euro common currency ever would have been introduced.

Antwort auf Macron-Appell Kramp-Karrenbauer hat eigene Pläne für Europa

Auf den Europa-Appell von Emmanuel Macron antwortet nicht die Kanzlerin, sondern CDU-Chefin Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer: In einem eigenen Konzept erteilt sie vielen seiner Reform-Ideen eine Absage.

CDU-Chefin Kramp-Karrenbauer
Samstag, 09.03.2019 20:44 Uhr, spiegel.de

In einem leidenschaftlichen Appell hatte Frankreichs Präsident Emmanuel Macron vor einigen Tagen tiefgreifende Reformen für die Europäische Union gefordert. Er schlug unter anderem eine europäische Asylbehörde vor und eine „europäische Klimabank“, die den ökologischen Wandel finanzieren solle. Macron hatte mit der Notwendigkeit argumentiert, Nationalisten vor der Europawahl im Mai etwas entgegenzusetzen.

Die Bundesregierung hatte zunächst zurückhaltend auf Macrons Appell reagiert. Statt Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel meldet sich nun die CDU-Chefin Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer zu den Reformvorschlägen aus Frankreich. Macrons Vorschlägen setzt „AKK“ ein eigenes Konzept entgegen, das sie unter dem Titel „Europa richtig machen“ als Gastbeitrag in der „Welt am Sonntag“ veröffentlicht.

Macrons Idee, einen europaweit geltenden Mindestlohn einzuführen, erteilt sie in ihrem Papier ebenso eine Absage wie seinem Vorschlag, europäische Unternehmen bei öffentlichen Aufträgen und Ausschreibungen zu bevorzugen. Auf letztere Idee geht sie schlicht nicht ein in ihrem Konzept. Ebenso unerwähnt bleibt Macrons Lieblingsprojekt eines gemeinsamen Eurozonen-Haushalts.

Europäischer Sicherheitsrat statt Europakonferenz

Stattdessen schlägt die CDU-Vorsitzende eigene Modifikationen vor, zum Beispiel, den zweiten Sitz des Europäischen Parlaments in Straßburg abzuschaffen. EU-Beamte sollten zudem nicht mehr von der Einkommensteuer ausgenommen sein. Für die EU beansprucht sie einen gemeinsamen ständigen Sitz im Uno-Sicherheitsrat. Vorstellen könnte sie sich auch ein EU-Investitionsbudget für gemeinsame Forschungen, Entwicklungen und Technologien.

Angela Merkel in Davos: Da kommt noch was

© SPIEGEL ONLINE 2019, Mittwoch, 23.01.2019   18:48 Uhr

Fragt man einen Headhunter, ist die Sache klar: „Ich habe Merkel immer bewundert“, sagt Bjørn Johannsson. „Sie hat Europa geführt.“ Mittlerweile aber sei die Kanzlerin eine „lame duck“, eine lahme Ente, als CDU-Chefin zurückgetreten und eine Kanzlerin auf Abruf. „Wenn sie mich fragen würde – ich würde ihr raten, jetzt rechtzeitig abzutreten.“

Johannsson kennt sich aus mit Abgängen und Aufstiegen. Der Norweger, der in der Schweiz lebt, sucht neue Topmanager für große Konzerne, wenn die alten Chefs gehen müssen. Aus seiner Logik ist Merkel fertig. Da muss er ihren Auftritt vor der Wirtschaftselite in Davos gar nicht abwarten.

Als Merkel kurz darauf die Bühne im fast vollbesetzten großen Saal des Kongresszentrums von Davos betritt, wirkt sie allerdings alles andere als lahm. Mit ungewohnter Leidenschaft spricht die Kanzlerin vor dem Weltwirtschaftsforum über die Welt und Deutschland. Und zwar bewusst in dieser Reihenfolge.

Merkel als Anführerin der westlichen Welt

Angela Merkel’s New Momentum

Date: 22-11-2018
Source: Scientific American by Javier Solana

Javier Solana was EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain. He is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

Since German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she will not seek another term and will step down as her party’s leader at the end of this year, political obituaries have been rolling in. But far from bowing out quietly, Merkel will use her remaining time in office to cement her legacy as a defender of the European project.

MADRID – Upon Albert Einstein’s death in 1955, the New York Times published a letter to the editor with a marvelous anecdote. Shortly after the atomic bombs had fallen on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Einstein was asked, “Why is it that when the mind of man has stretched so far as to discover the structure of the atom we have been unable to devise the political means to keep the atom from destroying us?” His answer was timeless: “That is simple, my friend. It is because politics is more difficult than physics.”

What will Angela Merkel’s resignation as CDU leader mean for Germany?

Date: 20-11-2018
Source: The Economist

Her successor may not be able to hold the country’s ruling coalition together

LATE LAST month Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, said that she would step down as leader of the ruling Christian Democratic Union in December. Mrs Merkel has run the centre-right party for 18 years (and Germany for 13). Her decision, which followed the drubbing of the CDU in a state election, has electrified German politics. Mrs Merkel’s successor as party leader will have a strong chance of succeeding her as chancellor—perhaps as soon as next year (although Mrs Merkel wishes to serve out her term until 2021). The CDU’s standing in polls has steadily dwindled since a federal election in September 2017, and its “grand coalition”, with the Social Democrats (SPD) as junior partner, has stumbled from crisis to crisis. If the Merkel era in Germany has not yet come to an end, it has certainly entered its twilight (what some Germans call Merkeldämmerung).

Of the dozen or so candidates to take over the CDU leadership, three stand out. Mrs Merkel’s presumed favourite, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (known universally as “AKK” and pictured above) is moderate, well connected in the party, and ran one of Germany’s states for seven years. But she is battling to throw off the “mini-Merkel” moniker bestowed on her by sceptics. Jens Spahn, the young health minister, earned fans on parts of the CDU right with his opposition to Mrs Merkel’s refugee policy in 2015-16, but is viscerally disliked elsewhere. The wildcard is Friedrich Merz, a charismatic former party heavyweight bested by Mrs Merkel in an internecine CDU feud in 2002. Having spent almost a decade away from politics making money in business and law, his surprise candidacy has thrilled the party’s pro-business old guard. After years of torpid centrism under Mrs Merkel, the sharp differences between the candidates portend an intriguing contest.

Over the coming weeks the candidates will make their respective cases to the party faithful at a series of conferences across Germany, before 1,001 delegates choose Mrs Merkel’s successor at a CDU congress in Hamburg on December 7th-8th. Most observers consider Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer and Mr Merz the front-runners; surveys of the party’s supporters (for what they are worth) put the former ahead. Yet the contest, the first genuine CDU leadership election for almost half a century, is utterly unpredictable. Each candidate must find a way to appeal to a party that is eager for renewal but shows no great appetite for political reinvention. They must also consider how their campaign messaging could affect future coalition discussions with other parties, not least the surging Greens.

Rede im EU-Parlament: Merkels Wortnebel umhüllt Europa

Date: 13-11-2018
Source: SPIEGEL

Auch Angela Merkel fordert jetzt eine „echte europäische Armee“. Wie sie aber genau funktionieren soll, ließ die Kanzlerin in ihrer Grundsatzrede vor dem EU-Parlament im Ungefähren – wie so vieles andere auch.

Angela Merkel

Ein Auftritt Angela Merkels im EU-Parlament ist nicht nur für sich genommen eine Seltenheit. Ähnlich selten wohl wurde über Form und Inhalt einer Rede der Bundeskanzlerin schon vorher so viel spekuliert. Würde Merkel im Spätherbst ihrer Kanzlerschaft ihre Zurückhaltung endlich fahren lassen? Würde sie versuchen, Europa doch noch gemeinsam mit Frankreichs Präsident Emmanuel Macron grundlegend zu reformieren, um den Populisten endlich etwas entgegenzusetzen?

Eine gute halbe Stunde redete Merkel am Mittwochnachmittag im Straßburger Plenum. Anschließend war klar: Merkels Vision für die Zukunft Europas lässt weiter auf sich warten, falls sie denn je kommt.

Einigermaßen deutlich wurde die Kanzlerin nur in einem Punkt: Auch sie will jetzt, ähnlich wie Macron, eine „echte europäische Armee“. Zumindest ein bisschen.

Denn die drei entscheidenden Worte umhüllte sie mit der dicken Watte eines typischen Merkel-Satzkonstrukts: „Wir sollten an der Vision arbeiten, eines Tages auch eine echte europäische Armee zu schaffen.“ Anschließend zitierte sie EU-Kommissionspräsident Jean-Claude Juncker mit der Aussage, eine solche Armee „würde der Welt zeigen, dass es zwischen den europäischen Ländern nie wieder Krieg gibt“.

Auf Wiedersehen, and Good Riddance

Nov 2, 2018 Philippe Legrain; Project Syndicate

Philippe Legrain, a former economic adviser to the president of the European Commission, is a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics’ European Institute and the founder of Open Political Economy Network (OPEN), an international think-tank whose mission is to advance open, liberal societies. His most recent book is European Spring: Why Our Economies and Politics are in a Mess – and How to Put Them Right .

Although German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision not to seek reelection in the next federal election has come as a surprise, it was long overdue. Merkel’s „steady hand on the tiller“ has guided the German and European ship of state directly into the populists‘ line of fire.

LONDON – She has been dubbed the Queen of Europe and, since US President Donald Trump’s election, the leader of the free world. As the European Union has lurched from crisis to crisis over the past decade, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s steady hand has helped hold the bloc together. According to the conventional wisdom, when she hands over the chancellorship after Germany’s next federal election in 2021 – and perhaps much sooner if her grand coalition collapses – she will be sorely missed.

How Angela Merkel Foiled a Backroom Coup in One Late Display of Clout

Date: 04-11-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

By taking herself out of the running to lead the ruling party, the German chancellor dragged its succession process into the light for the first time in decades

German Chancellor Angela Merkel in October.

BERLIN—The era of Angela Merkel was clearly coming to an end a week ago, and Wolfgang Schäuble was prepared to jump in. An elder statesman and veteran of German political battles, he had been secretly developing a succession plan, typical of changes-of-guard in the ruling party.

Then last Monday, Ms. Merkel dragged the party’s succession process into the light for the first time in decades.

By taking herself out of the running for her post as party chairwoman, she pulled the rug out from under the small group of men engineering the post-Merkel era, and cued up a rare public race for her crown—an open contest that looks set to redraw the political contours of the country and Europe in ways few anticipated.

Ms. Merkel had managed to pull off one late coup even in her moment of weakness, with a maneuver that leaves her with more control of the outcome—and of the terms of her departure—than if she had left the succession to her party.

Angela Merkel’s Vision Problem

Date: 03-11-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Yascha Mounk

With the Right Rising, Germany Needs to Do More Than Stay the Course

As the head of the country’s biggest political party for eighteen years, and its chancellor for twelve, Angela Merkel has done more to shape contemporary Germany than any postwar leader other than Konrad Adenauer, Willy Brandt, and Helmut Kohl. So her recent announcement that she will hand over the leadership of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) this December, and refrain from seeking another term in federal elections expected to be held in 2021, marks the beginning of the end of an era.

Since Merkel has been a deeply stabilizing force, and political extremists are lying in wait to exploit her departure, it is only natural to wonder how the country will change in the coming years. Will the CDU lurch to the right after its proudly moderate leader leaves the stage? Can the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has already established itself as a major force in German politics, use the power vacuum she leaves behind to its advantage? Or might a change of political personnel actually help to calm the anger that Merkel has increasingly inspired in the past years?

These are all important questions that concern the country’s likely future. But in order to understand the political predicament in which Germany now finds itself, and make an educated guess as to how Merkel’s departure might change the country, it is first necessary to understand the legacy she leaves behind.