Angela Merkel’s New Momentum

Date: 22-11-2018
Source: Scientific American by Javier Solana

Javier Solana was EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain. He is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

Since German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she will not seek another term and will step down as her party’s leader at the end of this year, political obituaries have been rolling in. But far from bowing out quietly, Merkel will use her remaining time in office to cement her legacy as a defender of the European project.

MADRID – Upon Albert Einstein’s death in 1955, the New York Times published a letter to the editor with a marvelous anecdote. Shortly after the atomic bombs had fallen on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Einstein was asked, “Why is it that when the mind of man has stretched so far as to discover the structure of the atom we have been unable to devise the political means to keep the atom from destroying us?” His answer was timeless: “That is simple, my friend. It is because politics is more difficult than physics.”

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What will Angela Merkel’s resignation as CDU leader mean for Germany?

Date: 20-11-2018
Source: The Economist

Her successor may not be able to hold the country’s ruling coalition together

LATE LAST month Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, said that she would step down as leader of the ruling Christian Democratic Union in December. Mrs Merkel has run the centre-right party for 18 years (and Germany for 13). Her decision, which followed the drubbing of the CDU in a state election, has electrified German politics. Mrs Merkel’s successor as party leader will have a strong chance of succeeding her as chancellor—perhaps as soon as next year (although Mrs Merkel wishes to serve out her term until 2021). The CDU’s standing in polls has steadily dwindled since a federal election in September 2017, and its “grand coalition”, with the Social Democrats (SPD) as junior partner, has stumbled from crisis to crisis. If the Merkel era in Germany has not yet come to an end, it has certainly entered its twilight (what some Germans call Merkeldämmerung).

Of the dozen or so candidates to take over the CDU leadership, three stand out. Mrs Merkel’s presumed favourite, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (known universally as “AKK” and pictured above) is moderate, well connected in the party, and ran one of Germany’s states for seven years. But she is battling to throw off the “mini-Merkel” moniker bestowed on her by sceptics. Jens Spahn, the young health minister, earned fans on parts of the CDU right with his opposition to Mrs Merkel’s refugee policy in 2015-16, but is viscerally disliked elsewhere. The wildcard is Friedrich Merz, a charismatic former party heavyweight bested by Mrs Merkel in an internecine CDU feud in 2002. Having spent almost a decade away from politics making money in business and law, his surprise candidacy has thrilled the party’s pro-business old guard. After years of torpid centrism under Mrs Merkel, the sharp differences between the candidates portend an intriguing contest.

Over the coming weeks the candidates will make their respective cases to the party faithful at a series of conferences across Germany, before 1,001 delegates choose Mrs Merkel’s successor at a CDU congress in Hamburg on December 7th-8th. Most observers consider Ms Kramp-Karrenbauer and Mr Merz the front-runners; surveys of the party’s supporters (for what they are worth) put the former ahead. Yet the contest, the first genuine CDU leadership election for almost half a century, is utterly unpredictable. Each candidate must find a way to appeal to a party that is eager for renewal but shows no great appetite for political reinvention. They must also consider how their campaign messaging could affect future coalition discussions with other parties, not least the surging Greens.

Rede im EU-Parlament: Merkels Wortnebel umhüllt Europa

Date: 13-11-2018
Source: SPIEGEL

Auch Angela Merkel fordert jetzt eine „echte europäische Armee“. Wie sie aber genau funktionieren soll, ließ die Kanzlerin in ihrer Grundsatzrede vor dem EU-Parlament im Ungefähren – wie so vieles andere auch.

Angela Merkel

Ein Auftritt Angela Merkels im EU-Parlament ist nicht nur für sich genommen eine Seltenheit. Ähnlich selten wohl wurde über Form und Inhalt einer Rede der Bundeskanzlerin schon vorher so viel spekuliert. Würde Merkel im Spätherbst ihrer Kanzlerschaft ihre Zurückhaltung endlich fahren lassen? Würde sie versuchen, Europa doch noch gemeinsam mit Frankreichs Präsident Emmanuel Macron grundlegend zu reformieren, um den Populisten endlich etwas entgegenzusetzen?

Eine gute halbe Stunde redete Merkel am Mittwochnachmittag im Straßburger Plenum. Anschließend war klar: Merkels Vision für die Zukunft Europas lässt weiter auf sich warten, falls sie denn je kommt.

Einigermaßen deutlich wurde die Kanzlerin nur in einem Punkt: Auch sie will jetzt, ähnlich wie Macron, eine „echte europäische Armee“. Zumindest ein bisschen.

Denn die drei entscheidenden Worte umhüllte sie mit der dicken Watte eines typischen Merkel-Satzkonstrukts: „Wir sollten an der Vision arbeiten, eines Tages auch eine echte europäische Armee zu schaffen.“ Anschließend zitierte sie EU-Kommissionspräsident Jean-Claude Juncker mit der Aussage, eine solche Armee „würde der Welt zeigen, dass es zwischen den europäischen Ländern nie wieder Krieg gibt“.

Auf Wiedersehen, and Good Riddance

Nov 2, 2018 Philippe Legrain; Project Syndicate

Philippe Legrain, a former economic adviser to the president of the European Commission, is a visiting senior fellow at the London School of Economics’ European Institute and the founder of Open Political Economy Network (OPEN), an international think-tank whose mission is to advance open, liberal societies. His most recent book is European Spring: Why Our Economies and Politics are in a Mess – and How to Put Them Right .

Although German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision not to seek reelection in the next federal election has come as a surprise, it was long overdue. Merkel’s „steady hand on the tiller“ has guided the German and European ship of state directly into the populists‘ line of fire.

LONDON – She has been dubbed the Queen of Europe and, since US President Donald Trump’s election, the leader of the free world. As the European Union has lurched from crisis to crisis over the past decade, German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s steady hand has helped hold the bloc together. According to the conventional wisdom, when she hands over the chancellorship after Germany’s next federal election in 2021 – and perhaps much sooner if her grand coalition collapses – she will be sorely missed.

How Angela Merkel Foiled a Backroom Coup in One Late Display of Clout

Date: 04-11-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

By taking herself out of the running to lead the ruling party, the German chancellor dragged its succession process into the light for the first time in decades

German Chancellor Angela Merkel in October.

BERLIN—The era of Angela Merkel was clearly coming to an end a week ago, and Wolfgang Schäuble was prepared to jump in. An elder statesman and veteran of German political battles, he had been secretly developing a succession plan, typical of changes-of-guard in the ruling party.

Then last Monday, Ms. Merkel dragged the party’s succession process into the light for the first time in decades.

By taking herself out of the running for her post as party chairwoman, she pulled the rug out from under the small group of men engineering the post-Merkel era, and cued up a rare public race for her crown—an open contest that looks set to redraw the political contours of the country and Europe in ways few anticipated.

Ms. Merkel had managed to pull off one late coup even in her moment of weakness, with a maneuver that leaves her with more control of the outcome—and of the terms of her departure—than if she had left the succession to her party.

Angela Merkel’s Vision Problem

Date: 03-11-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Yascha Mounk

With the Right Rising, Germany Needs to Do More Than Stay the Course

As the head of the country’s biggest political party for eighteen years, and its chancellor for twelve, Angela Merkel has done more to shape contemporary Germany than any postwar leader other than Konrad Adenauer, Willy Brandt, and Helmut Kohl. So her recent announcement that she will hand over the leadership of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) this December, and refrain from seeking another term in federal elections expected to be held in 2021, marks the beginning of the end of an era.

Since Merkel has been a deeply stabilizing force, and political extremists are lying in wait to exploit her departure, it is only natural to wonder how the country will change in the coming years. Will the CDU lurch to the right after its proudly moderate leader leaves the stage? Can the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has already established itself as a major force in German politics, use the power vacuum she leaves behind to its advantage? Or might a change of political personnel actually help to calm the anger that Merkel has increasingly inspired in the past years?

These are all important questions that concern the country’s likely future. But in order to understand the political predicament in which Germany now finds itself, and make an educated guess as to how Merkel’s departure might change the country, it is first necessary to understand the legacy she leaves behind.

In Win for Trump, Merkel Changes Course on U.S. Gas Imports

Date: 22-10-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Chancellor calls her decision to open Germany up to U.S. liquefied natural gas a ‘strategic’ move

German Chancellor Angela Merkel called a decision to co-finance a liquefied natural gas shipping terminal a ‘strategic’ move, according to people familiar with the matter.

BERLIN—Chancellor Angela Merkel has offered government support to efforts to open up Germany to U.S. gas, a key concession to President Trump as he tries to loosen Russia’s grip on Europe’s largest energy market.

Over breakfast this month, the chancellor told a small group of lawmakers her government had decided to co-finance the construction of a €500 million ($576 million) liquefied natural gas shipping terminal in northern Germany, according to people familiar with the meeting, giving a crucial nudge to a project that had failed to get off the ground for years in a country that gets most of its gas cheaply from Russia.

Mr. Trump has intensively lobbied Europe to buy significant amounts of LNG as part of his campaign to rewrite the terms of trade relations. German and U.S. officials said Berlin hoped embracing U.S. gas might help solve a protracted trade dispute and possibly even defuse threats by Washington to sanction Nord Stream 2, an unbuilt German-Russian gas pipeline that would double Russia’s existing gas export capacity to Germany.

EU leaders ready to help May sell Brexit deal to parliament

Date: 19-10-2018
Source: The Guardian

PM will receive backing to build ‘coalition of the reasonable’ in desperate bid to avoid no deal

Angela Merkel, left, and Emmanuel Macron. The German chancellor stressed that the EU had to pursue “all avenues” to find a deal that can get through the Commons.

EU leaders are preparing to back Theresa May in building a “coalition of the reasonable” in the UK parliament, in a desperate bid to avoid a no-deal Brexit.

Following what has been described by diplomats as a “call for help” by the prime minister at a crunch summit in Brussels, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, stressed that the EU had to pursue “all avenues” to find a deal that can get through the Commons.“I think where there is a will there is a way,” she said.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the European commission president, said: “It will be done.” He is understood to have told EU leaders that May needed “help” to sell a deal in parliament.

While ruling out major concessions, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said it was clear that the roadblock to a deal did not lie in Brussels.

The Twilight of German Conservatism

Date: 15-10-2018
Source: Foreign Policy by Georg Diez

Why Angela Merkel Presides Over a Movement in Crisis

Much ink has been spilled on the collapse of European social democracy, and Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) provides a perfect case study. Once a proud political heavyweight that raked in upward of 40 percent of the vote, the SPD still governs the country as part of a coalition with Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives, but now polls at a meager 16 percent, the same as the environmentalist Green party and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). The German left’s fall from behemoth to sideshow has provided fodder for endless commentary: Did it fail to address the ills of globalized capitalism? Are all of its policy solutions obsolete?

Much less talked about, but just as brutal, has been the decline of German conservatism. For a long time, there was little to complain about: Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have been in power for the last 13 years. Merkel herself is on track to become the country’s longest-ruling postwar chancellor, tied only with her onetime mentor Helmut Kohl. But her party is hovering at an all-time low of 26 percent in national polls, with poor prospects in two crucial state elections and deep internal rifts. Merkel seems increasingly embattled, and many speculate that her reign as the eternal chancellor is nearing its end. What this means for Germany or for conservatism as a whole is unclear. But coming at a moment when the aggressive nationalism, racism, and xenophobia of right-wing populists has put liberal values on the defensive across Europe, the crisis of German conservatism spells trouble for the continent’s project of transnational unity.

„Ein weiteres Zeichen der Erosion von Merkels Machtbasis“

Die Kanzlerin spricht von einer „Stunde der Demokratie“. Andere werten Kauders Abwahl als Misstrauensvotum gegen sie. „Blödsinn“, sagt der neue Unions-Fraktionschef.

Dietmar Neuerer

25.09.2018 Update: 26.09.2018 – 00:33 Uhr Handelsblatt.com

Die Kanzlerin verliert an der Fraktionsspitze einen ihrer engsten Vertrauten.

Berlin. „Mächtiger Schlag ins Kontor“, „Zeichen für neuen Aufbruch“, „Signal der Unzufriedenheit und Erneuerung“: Die überraschende Abwahl von Volker Kauder als Unions-Fraktionschef hat unterschiedliche Reaktionen ausgelöst.

Für Angela Merkel ist die Wahl von Ralph Brinkhaus tatsächlich alles andere als erfreulich, auch wenn sie versucht, sich die schwere Niederlage nicht anmerken zu lassen. Gewohnt ruhig sagt die Kanzlerin in die Kameras, sie habe sich dafür eingesetzt, dass Kauder weiter Fraktionschef bleiben könne, mit dem sie „sehr, sehr gut“ zusammengearbeitet habe. Brinkhaus habe die Mehrheit der Stimmen bekommen, resümiert die Kanzlerin trocken. „Ich hab‘ ihm natürlich gratuliert.“

Und dann kommen die Sätze des Tages: „Das ist eine Stunde der Demokratie. In der gibt es auch Niederlagen. Und da gibt es auch nichts zu beschönigen.“ Dann blickt auch Merkel schon nach vorn: „Aber trotzdem möchte ich, dass die CDU/CSU-Bundestagsfraktion erfolgreich weiterarbeitet.“ Deshalb werde sie Brinkhaus „wo immer ich das kann, auch unterstützen“.