Posted by hkarner - 17. Februar 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
It isn’t just the Trump effect; from oil prices to Chinese outflows, the world is looking up
Oil prices are rising after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reduced production, contributing to a world-wide shift toward optimism in business surveys and markets.
It’s tempting to see surging U.S. stock prices and business confidence as all coming in response to President Donald Trump’s election.
But the upswing is global: In Europe, Japan, China and elsewhere, business surveys and markets have turned markedly more optimistic.
This is partly because investors hope that any fiscal stimulus Mr. Trump enacts will spill over to other countries. Yet a confluence of other factors is also at work: Oil prices are on an upswing thanks to production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Chinese and European economic activity picked up in the second half of last year. And, economically speaking, populism has so far been a wet firecracker. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Risk, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 22. Dezember 2016
Source: The Economist
Subject: Smooth sailing, until it’s not
Risks lurk outside China’s borders and within it
WHEN 2016 dawned the economy that investors fretted about most was China’s. Memories of a huge stockmarket crash were still fresh. Capital was pouring out of the country as savers anticipated a devaluation of the yuan. In the event, other countries provided the year’s big upsets. And in some respects, the Chinese economy is stronger today than it has been for a couple of years. Producer prices, mired in deflation for 54 straight months, are rising at last. Corporate profits are turning up. Promises to cut overcapacity in coal and steel, and to reduce the overhang of unsold housing, have borne fruit. After three straight quarters of 6.7% annual growth, economists are converging around—you guessed it—6.7% in their forecasts for the final quarter of 2016.
However, this outward stability is misleading. Risks lurk both outside China’s borders and within them. If it does not change its attitude to reform, the Middle Kingdom could soon be atop investors’ minds once again.
One obvious source of anxiety is the potential for a trade war. Much depends on what Donald Trump does when he takes office in January. But tensions are already rising. China had expected to win the status of a market economy in December, 15 years after its accession to the World Trade Organisation, but the West refused. Because China sees this as a broken promise, a game of tit-for-tat protectionism may well ensue. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: china, Economist, Growth, Risk, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 21. Dezember 2016
21.12.2016 | 18:19 | Von Christian Höller (Die Presse)
Der Wirtschaftsbeirat der deutschen Regierung, dem 40 Topökonomen angehören, warnt vor großen Risken im Finanzsystem. Gefordert werden strengere Regeln für Banken.
Wien/Frankfurt. Fast täglich gibt es Meldungen über Probleme bei Großbanken. Am gestrigen Mittwoch teilte die italienische Krisenbank Monte dei Paschi mit, dass ihr in vier Monaten das Geld ausgehen werde. Daher soll der italienische Staat einspringen. Experten fragen sich, warum es Europa acht Jahre nach Beginn der Finanzkrise noch immer nicht schafft, die Lage bei den Banken in den Griff zu bekommen. Nun schlägt der Wirtschaftsbeirat der deutschen Regierung Alarm, dem 40 Topökonomen angehören. Die Experten fordern in einer jetzt vorgelegten Analyse unter anderem strengere Eigenkapitalvorschriften für die Banken. Im Beirat sitzen Martin Hellwig vom Max-Planck-Institut in Bonn sowie Hans Gersbach, Inhaber des Lehrstuhls für Makroökonomie an der ETH Zürich.
Nach Ansicht der Ökonomen habe es Europa verabsäumt, die Überkapazitäten im Finanzsektor abzubauen. So sei es in Europa nicht gelungen, marode Banken ausreichend zu sanieren oder abzuwickeln. Die USA hätten hingegen deutlich mehr für die Sanierung ihres Finanzsystems getan, heißt es. Tatsächlich wurden in den USA seit Ausbruch der Krise Hunderte Banken geschlossen.
Die Wissenschaftler kritisieren weiters die derzeitige Regelung, wonach Banken Immobilienkredite pauschal als sicherer als Unternehmenskredite behandeln dürfen. Denn Immobilienkredite stünden regelmäßig im Zentrum von Finanzkrisen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Euro, Germany, Presse, Real Estate, Regulieren, Risk, Wirtschaftsbeirat | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 9. Dezember 2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Dwindling gains in science, medicine and technology hold back growth; is America too risk-averse?
By all appearances, we’re in a golden age of innovation. Every month sees new advances in artificial intelligence, gene therapy, robotics and software apps. Research and development as a share of gross domestic product is near an all-time high. There are more scientists and engineers in the U.S. than ever before.
None of this has translated into meaningful advances in Americans’ standard of living.
Economies grow by equipping an expanding workforce with more capital such as equipment, software and buildings, then combining capital and labor more creatively. This last element, called “total factor productivity,” captures the contribution of innovation. Its growth peaked in the 1950s at 3.4% a year as prior breakthroughs such as electricity, aviation and antibiotics reached their maximum impact. It has steadily slowed since and averaged a pathetic 0.5% for the current decade.
Outside of personal technology, improvements in everyday life have been incremental, not revolutionary. Houses, appliances and cars look much like they did a generation ago. Airplanes fly no faster than in the 1960s. None of the 20 most-prescribed drugs in the U.S. came to market in the past decade. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brynjolfsson, Growth, Innovation, Risk, USA, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 7. Oktober 2016
Source: The Wall Street Journal
IMF urges major restructuring of the European banking system and sees emerging-market corporate defaults on the rise
Deutsche Bank headquarters in Frankfurt. Like other European banks, the German financial giant has come under pressure from investors wary of the company’s ability to turn a profit.
In recent years, the global financial system has weathered Brexit, China’s deceleration and emerging market mayhem.
But there’s no reason to be complacent, the International Monetary Fund warns in its latest reports on global financial stability and the fiscal health of economies around the world.
“The passing of these near-term risks has seen volatility fall and equity prices in advanced economies rise,” says Peter Dattels, deputy director of the fund’s monetary and capital markets department. “But medium-term risks are building because we are entering a new era of challenges.”
An unprecedented era of ultralow interest rates and feeble growth has led to a record buildup in global debt levels. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Banken, Debt, GFSR, IMF, Risk, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 27. Juli 2016
Gaston Gelos, Nico Valckx
27 July 2016, voxeu
In recent years, the life insurance sector has become more systemically important across advanced economies. This increase is largely due to growing common exposures and to insurers’ rising interest rate sensitivity. This column analyses the evolution of the insurance sector’s contribution to systemic risk. Overall, life insurers do not seem to have markedly changed their asset portfolios toward riskier assets, although smaller and weaker insurers in some countries have taken on more risk. The findings suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
Insurance companies – life insurers, as well as providers of property, casualty, health, and financial coverage – perform important economic functions and are big players in financial markets. Traditionally, however, they were not considered to pose systemic risks. Insurers have longer-term liabilities than banks, a greater diversification of assets, and less extensive interconnections with the rest of the financial system. However, the near-collapse of AIG during the Global Crisis prompted a rethinking of the sector’s systemic riskiness. A number of insurance firms were subsequently among the financial institutions designated as globally systemically important. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Gelos, IMF, Insurance, Risk, systemisch, Valckx | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 27. Mai 2016
Maria Damanaki, former EU Commissioner for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries, is Global Managing Director for Oceans at The Nature Conservancy.
MAY 26, 2016, Project Syndicate
LONDON – Nearly half the world’s population – some 3.5 billion people – lives near coasts. As climate change exacerbates the effects of storms, flooding, and erosion, the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of those people will be at risk. In fact, the latest edition of the World Economic Forum’s World Risk Assessment Report names failure to adapt to the effects of climate change as the single greatest risk, in terms of impact, to societies and economies around the world.
Beyond endangering lives, more frequent and stronger storms could cost many billions of dollars, owing to infrastructure damage and lost revenues from farming, fisheries, and tourism. And, as the Harvard Business Review recently noted, the projected cost rises with each new study. Yet the international community currently spends on risk mitigation less than one-fifth of what it spends on natural-disaster response. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Climate Change, Damanaki, Project Syndicate, Risk | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 29. Dezember 2015
Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard University and President Emeritus of the National Bureau of Economic Research, chaired President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1982 to 1984. In 2006, he was appointed to President Bush’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, and, in 2009, was appointed to President Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Currently, he is on the board of directors of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Group of 30, a non-profit, international body that seeks greater understanding of global economic issues.
DEC 28, 2015, Project Syndicate
CAMBRIDGE – The end of the year is a good time to consider the risks that lie ahead of us. There are of course important economic risks, including the mispricing of assets caused by a decade of ultra-low interest rates, the shifts in demand caused by the Chinese economy’s changing structure, and European economies’ persistent weakness. But the main longer-term risks are geopolitical, stemming from four sources: Russia, China, the Middle East, and cyberspace. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Feldstein, Geopolitics, Project Syndicate, Risk | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 1. Oktober 2015
Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.
OCT 1, 2015, Project Syndicate
NEW YORK – Among today’s geopolitical risks, none is greater than the long arc of instability stretching from the Maghreb to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. With the Arab Spring an increasingly distant memory, the instability along this arc is deepening. Indeed, of the three initial Arab Spring countries, Libya has become a failed state, Egypt has returned to authoritarian rule, and Tunisia is being economically and politically destabilized by terrorist attacks.
The violence and instability of North Africa is now spreading into Sub-Saharan Africa, with the Sahel – one of the world’s poorest and most environmentally damaged regions – now gripped by jihadism, which is also seeping into the Horn of Africa to its east. And, as in Libya, civil wars are raging in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia, all of which increasingly look like failed states. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Middle East, Project Syndicate, Risk, Roubini | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 21. September 2015
Francesco D’Acunto 20 September 2015, voxeu
Research consistently finds that men are more risk tolerant, or even risk loving, than women. This column argues that social identity, next to biology, helps explain the stark difference in risk attitudes and beliefs across genders. Men to whom identity is salient become more risk tolerant and invest more often and with more money. Identity makes men overconfident but its effects decrease with age. This is consistent with the notion that gender stereotypes have become less stark over the last decades.
Heterogeneous preferences and beliefs have major implications for the dynamics of labour markets (Killingsworth 1987), financial markets (Garleanu and Panageas, forthcoming), and the macroeconomy (Chien et al. 2014). Heterogeneity across genders is especially relevant – each group includes half of the population, and there are systematic differences in the preferences of men and women, which in turn have large effects on economic outcomes (Croson and Gneezy 2009, DellaVigna et al. 2013, Bertrand et al. 2015).
Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: D'Acunto, Risk, voxeu | Leave a Comment »