Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Risk’

Preventing an AI Apocalypse

Posted by hkarner - 17. Mai 2018

Seth Baum

Seth Baum is the executive director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI), a think tank focused on extreme global risks. He is also affiliated with the Blue Marble Space Institute of Science and the University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk.

The view that AI-driven machines will outsmart humanity, take over the world, and kill us all – a staple of dystopian science fiction – is easy enough to dismiss, given that humans remain firmly in control. But many AI experts take the apocalyptic perspective seriously, and they are right to do so.

NEW YORK – Recent advances in artificial intelligence have been nothing short of dramatic. AI is transforming nearly every sector of society, from transportation to medicine to defense. So it is worth considering what will happen when it becomes even more advanced than it already is.

The apocalyptic view is that AI-driven machines will outsmart humanity, take over the world, and kill us all. This scenario crops up often in science fiction, and it is easy enough to dismiss, given that humans remain firmly in control. But many AI experts take the apocalyptic perspective seriously, and they are right to do so. The rest of society should as well.

To understand what is at stake, consider the distinction between “narrow AI” and “artificial general intelligence” (AGI). Narrow AI can operate only in one or a few domains at a time, so while it may outperform humans in select tasks, it remains under human control. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Deadly Risk of Losing Your Financial Nest Egg

Posted by hkarner - 14. Mai 2018

Date: 13-05-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Many people lost their life savings in the last recession.
New research on the health damage done

Is it worse to suddenly lose your financial nest egg or never to have saved any money at all? This question concerns many of us: A quarter of Americans watched much or all of their life savings evaporate during the last recession, while nearly half of U.S. families have nothing put aside for retirement, according to the Economic Policy Institute and federal data.

Either way, there’s no happy answer. Both scenarios can increase our risk of dying within the next 20 years by more than 50%, a recent study shows.

We’ve long known that a financial shock causes immediate distress. Suit-clad men leaping from buildings were dismal hallmarks of the Great Depression, and soon after a major recession began in 2007, there were notable spikes in clinical depression, substance abuse and suicides. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A study finds nearly half of jobs are vulnerable to automation

Posted by hkarner - 26. April 2018

Date: 24-04-2018
Source: The Economist

That could free people to pursue more interesting careers

A WAVE of automation anxiety has hit the West. Just try typing “Will machines…” into Google. An algorithm offers to complete the sentence with differing degrees of disquiet: “…take my job?”; “…take all jobs?”; “…replace humans?”; “…take over the world?”

Job-grabbing robots are no longer science fiction. In 2013 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University used—what else?—a machine-learning algorithm to assess how easily 702 different kinds of job in America could be automated. They concluded that fully 47% could be done by machines “over the next decade or two”.

A new working paper by the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries, employs a similar approach, looking at other developed economies. Its technique differs from Mr Frey and Mr Osborne’s study by assessing the automatability of each task within a given job, based on a survey of skills in 2015. Overall, the study finds that 14% of jobs across 32 countries are highly vulnerable, defined as having at least a 70% chance of automation. A further 32% were slightly less imperilled, with a probability between 50% and 70%. At current employment rates, that puts 210m jobs at risk across the 32 countries in the study.

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/automation-skills-use-and-training_2e2f4eea-en Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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To Make Autonomous Vehicles Safe, We Have to Rethink

Posted by hkarner - 26. April 2018

Date: 25-04-2018
Source: Scientific American

Coming generations of AVs won’t be risk-free in all circumstances, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing

Since last month’s pedestrian death at the hands of a self-driving Uber car, many have clamored for stronger safety guidelines for autonomous vehicles (AVs). The simplest form for such guidelines would be strict, across-the-board standards, perhaps demanding that any AV match or surpass humans on a comprehensive driving test. But a blanket approach to safety could both crimp AVs’ benefits and reduce their safety.

The crux of the issue is that autonomy is not a monolithic concept. Monorails, Roombas and C-3PO are all autonomous, but in different senses and with different constraints. Similarly, autonomous driving is not a single technology; it comes in gradations, and the vehicles that are imminent will not be independently hurtling through roundabouts in the snow at twilight. Our expectations and standards regarding safety will need to be tailored to the use cases those vehicles are designed for—many of which will be less sophisticated than we’ve been led to expect. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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„Deutschlands goldenes Jahrzehnt wird in den 2020ern enden“

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2018

Die gute Konjunktur verdecke den Blick auf die verdeckten strukturellen Probleme in der deutschen Wirtschaft, sagen Ökonomen. Und die öffentliche Verwaltung sei zu behäbig.

Auf den ersten Blick sieht die deutsche Wirtschaftslage rosig aus. Daten vom Arbeitsmarkt, Einkaufsmanagerindizes und eine lockere Geldpolitik der EZB schaffen die Voraussetzungen für anhaltende Zuversicht. Aber es gibt Risiken, die der Feststimmung, wie ifo-Chef Clemens Fuest im Dezember die Lage umschrieb, ein jähes Ende bereiten könnten.

Noch sei die abnehmende Wettbewerbsfähigkeit für Investoren kein Thema, sagt Maximilian Kunkel, Chef-Anlagestratege Wealth Management UBS Deutschland und verweist auf den derzeitigen global synchronisierten konjunkturellen Aufschwung. Aber der Aufschwung sei zyklisch und nicht strukturell. Strukturelle Reformen in Deutschland seien unbedingt notwendig, sowie Investitionen in Bildung, Infrastruktur und Forschung. Deutschland ist in puncto Standortqualität international bereits zurückgefallen, zeigt der „Doing-Business-Bericht“ der Weltbank vom vergangenen Herbst.

„Erfolg macht behäbig“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Securing the Digital Transition

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2018

Carl Bildt was Sweden’s foreign minister from 2006 to October 2014 and Prime Minister from 1991 to 1994, when he negotiated Sweden’s EU accession. A renowned international diplomat, he served as EU Special Envoy to the Former Yugoslavia, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, UN Special Envoy to the Balkans, and Co-Chairman of the Dayton Peace Conference. He is Chair of the Global Commission on Internet Governance and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

Within a few decades, the Internet has transformed the global economy and rendered the old Westphalian order increasingly obsolete. But without a new governance framework to manage cyber threats and abuses, what has been a boon to globalization could become its undoing.
NEW DELHI – Every year, the World Economic Forum publishes a Global Risks Report, which distills the views of experts and policymakers from around the world. This year, cybersecurity is high on the list of global concerns, as well it should be. In 2017, the world witnessed a continued escalation in cyber attacks and security breaches that affected all parts of society. There is no reason to believe 2018 will be different.The implications are far-reaching. Most immediately, we must grapple with governance of the Internet as well as on the Internet. Otherwise, the opportunities afforded by digital technologies could be squandered in a regulatory and legal arms race, complete with new borders and new global tensions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Real Risk to the Global Economy

Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2017

Christopher SmartChristopher Smart is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. He was a special assistant to the US president for International Economics, Trade, and Investment (2013-2015) and Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Europe and Eurasia (2009-13).

One might assume that the brewing crises on the Korean Peninsula and in the Middle East pose a serious threat to the current global economic expansion. But political crises often induce only brief market corrections, whereas gradual shifts in international global institutions can be far more consequential for investor behavior.
WASHINGTON, DC – One of the great mysteries of today’s global markets is their irrepressible enthusiasm, even as the world around them appears on the verge of chaos or collapse. And yet, investors may be more rational than they appear when it comes to pricing in political risks. If investing is foremost about discounting future cash flows, it’s important to focus precisely on what will and will not affect those calculations. The potential crises that may be most dramatic or violent are, ironically, the ones that the market has the easiest time looking through.

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Here we go again!

Posted by hkarner - 23. Oktober 2017

Date: 22-10-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject: Hunt for Yield Fuels Boom in Another Complex, Risky Security

Volumes of collateralized loan obligations, which slice and dice risky, leveraged bank loans, hit a record so far this year

Return-starved investors are piling back into securities that rely on financial engineering to juice returns.

As investors hunt for yield in global markets, acronyms are back.

Complex structured investments got a bad rap during the credit crunch, and products such as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs, entered financial-crisis lore. Ten years on, return-starved investors are overcoming their skepticism to pile back into securities that rely on financial engineering to juice returns. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Eurasia Group Update – What Might Go Wrong

Posted by hkarner - 25. Juli 2017

Thanks to P.B.

Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group, 24/7

back in january, our top risk for the year was „independent america,“ the idea that trump’s “america first” would cause significant geopolitical knock-on effects. it was the first time we had the world’s only superpower as a top risk, never mind leading the list. six months in, growing uncertainties around the trump administration are driving this point home. so to start this week, let’s look at how things might truly derail. then the latest developments in the us-russia relationship. and turkey’s troubles, a year after the failed coup.

what might go wrong

watching the drama in the united states unfold has made for extraordinary political theater. it’s scorched earth strategy for both sides: the trump administration, congressional republicans, and fox news & alt-right media versus democrats, „mainstream media,“ and an ever-expanding robert mueller investigation.

it’s plausible that the sturm und drang continues while the system mostly minds its own business. the united states heads into midterm and then presidential elections, very little gets done while the circus plays out in the media, and—eventually—a level of normalcy and (at least somewhat) more civil discourse returns to washington. but the trajectory from the past six months is starting to suggest otherwise: that the pressure around president trump and family is tightening; trump’s willingness to act in extraordinary and unprecedented ways is increasing. both of these trends interact in an escalatory and combustible cycle. and precisely because so much of what’s unprecedented and incendiary from and around the trump administration has to do with informal norms of conduct that trump doesn’t accept (on civil discourse, conflicts of interest, national security, etc..) rather than explicit laws being broken that require formal recourse, there’s reason to expect this will continue. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Elon Musk Lays Out Worst-Case Scenario for AI Threat

Posted by hkarner - 17. Juli 2017

Date: 16-07-2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Powerful technology will threaten all human jobs, could even spark a war, Tesla CEO says

Elon Musk . Mr. Musk warned about the dangers of artificial intelligence and said high price of Tesla shares reflects the optimism of the future of the company.

Elon Musk warned a gathering of U.S. governors that they need to be concerned about the potential dangers from the rise of artificial intelligence and called for the creation of a regulatory body to guide development of the powerful technology.

Speaking Saturday at the National Governors Association meeting in Rhode Island, the chief executive of electric-car maker Tesla Inc. and rocket-maker Space Exploration Technologies Corp. laid out several worst-case scenarios for AI, saying that the technology will threaten all human jobs and that an AI could even spark a war. “It is the biggest risk that we face as a civilization,” he said.

Mr. Musk has been vocal about his concerns about AI and helped create OpenAI, a nonprofit research group that aims for the safe development of the technology. He suggested to the governors that a regulatory agency needs to be formed to begin gaining insight into fast-moving AI development followed by putting regulations into place. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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