Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 24. Februar 2019

As Europe Condemns Trump, Asia Takes a More Realistic View

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2019

Date: 23-02-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Gerard Baker

Today’s dramatic global shifts are more than the result of one presidency

German industry has boomed in the postwar order anchored by the U.S.

There was a joke popular among the trans-Atlantic foreign policy crowd in the 1990s: “The Cold War is over, and Germany and Japan won.” An exaggeration, obviously, especially given what would shortly happen to Japan’s economy. But it was a fittingly mordant observation on the ironies of a world in which the U.S. had led the West to victory in the greatest of ideological and strategic struggles, while the economic spoils seemed to have gone mostly to two countries that had not contributed much and had in fact been the two principal aggressors of the 20th century.

I was reminded of this irony as I traveled through Europe, the Middle East and India in the past few weeks. In Europe, all one hears these days about the U.S. is fear and loathing. Donald Trump is almost universally condemned for unmaking the liberal international order that has helped to keep the peace and generate unprecedented prosperity. But in the spittle-flecked condemnations, there is hardly a hint of gratitude for this world America created in the first place, a world that has enabled Europe especially to grow prosperous and peaceful. Nor is there the slightest acknowledgment that perhaps it was bought by an arrangement in which America bears most of the burdens of leadership while the Europeans get only benefits. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How China has pushed Germany to rethink industrial policy

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2019

Date: 21-02-2019
Source: The Economist

China’s rise inspires some revolutionary thinking in Berlin

It was an endearingly optimistic line. For years Germany’s China policy was guided by the motto Wandel durch Handel (“Change through trade”). There has certainly been plenty of trade (see chart), but the changes are not of the sort that were intended.

Originally Germany imported cheap Chinese consumer goods while exporting its expensive cars, machine tools and gizmos. But German companies soon discovered that operating in China often means giving up technology and navigating rules that tilt the pitch in favour of domestic rivals. More recently some Mittelstand manufacturers have started to fear that China will eat their lunch, as Chinese companies, clambering up the supply chain and backed by juicy state subsidies, have embarked on shopping sprees inside Europe. Germany is particularly exposed to China’s new industrial policy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Recession: Are We There Yet?

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2019

By John Mauldin

February 22, 2019

Dramatic Weakening
Missing Inversion
No Credit Stress
Not Going Global
The Rest of the Story
“I’m an American!”—Pat Caddell—RIP

An old joke says economists predicted 15 of the last 10 recessions. In other words, they’re frequently wrong and often too pessimistic.

I think it’s not so simple. Every recession prediction is eventually correct; some just get the timing wrong. That’s because, so long as we have a business cycle, a recession is always coming. The only question is when it will strike.

There’s also some dispute about what, exactly, counts as “recession.” The usual definition is two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP. But as I’ve written, GDP itself is a nebulous statistic with substantial margin of error. We can never be quite sure.

My own outlook has been consistent: The current growth phase is getting old and will end as they all do, but we probably have another year or so. That is about as far out as my data reads can actually give us any statistical confidence. Macro events like Federal Reserve error, trade war, ugly Brexit, and others could hasten the decline. But as of now, the US and the developed world seem likely to sustain at least mild growth through 2019. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The new aristocrats of power

Posted by hkarner - 24. Februar 2019

Date: 21-02-2019
Source: The Economist: Bartleby

Executives rules their companies. Why not countries?

This autumn “Downton Abbey”, a film based on the British television series, will be released and audiences will once more be transported back to the days when a powerful elite was surrounded by subservient staff who catered to their every need. But the modern versions of Lord and Lady Grantham are in the headlines every day. Chief executives are today’s aristocracy. Chauffeurs ferry them around and private jets whisk them overseas. The best chefs provide the meals in their corporate dining rooms.

Corporate headquarters are the modern equivalent of country estates, spreading over prime acreage in Silicon Valley or dominating the skylines of New York and London. Walls are decorated with fashionable art, rather as the aristocracy used to hang a Canaletto or Rembrandt in the drawing room. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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