Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Archive for 8. Februar 2019

Debt Derangement Syndrome

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2019

J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.

BERKELEY – For the past decade, politics in the Global North has been in a state of high madness owing to excessive fear of government debts and deficits. But two recent straws in the wind suggest that this may at long last be changing.

Earlier this month, I read a Brexit-related column in The Sunday Times of London by the eminent and highly knowledgeable Ken Rogoff. He is perhaps best known for his declarations early in this decade that governments should not let their debt-to-GDP ratios rise above 90%. But here, Rogoff mused that it had “never been remotely obvious to [him] why the UK should be worrying about reducing its debt-GDP burden [currently 84%], given modest growth, high inequality and the … decline in … interest rates …” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump Preparing Plan to Boost AI, 5G Technology

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2019

Date: 07-02-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The two areas represent arenas of growing competition between the U.S. and China

Next-generation 5G wireless promises to bring far faster speeds and greater capacity to wireless networks.

WASHINGTON—President Trump is preparing an ambitious plan to ramp up the government’s role in speeding next-generation technologies such as 5G wireless and artificial intelligence, two key areas of competition with China.

In his State of the Union speech, Mr. Trump said he would work with lawmakers on an infrastructure package, one that would include “investments in the cutting-edge industries of the future.”

“This is not an option. This is a necessity,” the president said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Konjunktur: Die Party in Europa ist vorbei

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2019

Brüssel stutzt die Wachstumsaussichten für die EU zusammen. Italien schrammt knapp an der Rezession vorbei.

Brüssel/Frankfurt. Seit Wochen warnen Wirtschaftsforscher und Unternehmer mehr oder weniger verklausuliert vor einem Einbruch der Konjunktur in Europa. Mit dem gestrigen Donnerstag sind auch die letzten Zweifel beseitigt: Unabhängig voneinander erklärten die Europäische Zentralbank und die EU-Kommission den simultanen Aufschwung der vergangenen Jahre für beendet. Und dieses Ende fällt deutlich abrupter aus als gedacht.

Im Detail unterscheiden sich die beiden Prognosen dann doch voneinander. So betonen die Währungshüter in Frankfurt, dass es mit dem Wirtschaftswachstum in der Eurozone in erster Linie kurzfristig bergab gehen werde. Darin versteckt sich auch die Botschaft, dass es – zumindest unter EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi – wohl keine nennenswerte Zinserhöhung geben wird.

Die EU-Kommission malt die Zukunftsaussichten des größten Wirtschaftsraumes der Welt in ihrer Winterprognose noch schwärzer als die Zentralbanker. Im kommenden Jahr werde die Eurozone nur noch um 1,3 Prozent wachsen. Das sind 0,6 Prozentpunkte weniger, als Brüssel im Herbst für 2019 in Aussicht gestellt hatte. Fast alle Länder müssen Einbußen hinnehmen. Italien kratzt gar an der Rezession. Alle Mitgliedstaaten (inkl. Großbritannien) werden heuer um 1,5 statt 1,9 Prozent wachsen. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Margrethe Vestager, bane of Alstom and Siemens, could get the EU’s top job

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2019

Date: 07-02-2019
Source: The Economist: Charlemagne

The competition commissioner would make a dynamic president of the Commission, but needs liberals to unite behind her

Rest in peace, “Trainbus”. On February 6th Margrethe Vestager, the European Union’s competition commissioner, vetoed a merger between Germany’s Siemens and France’s Alstom that proposed to do for train-building what Airbus has done for plane-building: create a European giant capable of competing with the world’s biggest. The move dismays Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, who argue that Europe needs champions to take on rivals such as China’s crrc. But the commissioner ruled that the merger would eliminate competition in certain sectors, and argued that the eu should instead take on Chinese industrial might with better rules on state subsidies, data privacy and takeovers. Her wariness is welcome. Achieving competitive European firms through mega-mergers confronts the symptom—a lack of European industrial giants—rather than the underlying problem, which is insufficient integration of European markets.

Ms Vestager (pronounced “Vest-ayer”) does not shy away from making powerful enemies. Brought up in a bustling Lutheran parsonage in a coastal corner of Denmark, she is known in Brussels for her straight manner and dry humour. She arrived there in 2014 after a career in Copenhagen as education minister, economy minister and leader of Radikale, a small social-liberal party. Her detractors say she has since picked easy targets, predominantly American technology firms, to make herself popular. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Good Jobs Challenge

Posted by hkarner - 8. Februar 2019

Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy, Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science, and, most recently, Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy.

Every economy in the world today is divided between an advanced segment, typically globally integrated, employing a minority of the labor force, and a low-productivity segment that absorbs the bulk of the workforce, often at low wages and under poor conditions. How should policymakers address this dualism?

CAMBRIDGE – Around the world today, the central challenge for achieving inclusive economic prosperity is the creation of sufficient numbers of “good jobs.” Without productive and dependable employment for the vast majority of a country’s workforce, economic growth either remains elusive, or its benefits end up concentrated among a tiny minority. The scarcity of good jobs also undermines trust in political elites, adding fuel to the authoritarian, nativist backlash affecting many countries today.

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