Worauf wartet Deutschland?

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany’s strong support for NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.

Apr 27, 2018 Joschka Fischer, Project Syndicate

BERLIN – Mehr als zehn Jahre seit der Finanzkrise von 2008 befindet sich die EU in einer langen Stagnationsphase, in der sie kaum Fortschritte gemacht hat. Gerade in der Gegenwart, in der sich dramatische weltpolitische Veränderungen und ebenso herausfordernde Krisen in der europäischen Nachbarschaft oder gar im Innern der Union ereignen, wie der Aufstieg eines neuen Nationalismus und damit einhergehend der direkte Angriff auf die Grundwerte von Rechtsstaat und Demokratie, ist eine Stärkung der Europäischen Union im Interesse aller Mitgliedstaaten und unverzichtbar, wenn das europäische Einigungsprojekt nicht scheitern soll.

Doch nichts passiert, und das liegt im Wesentlichen an Deutschland. Jahrelang dominierten nach 2008 Wachstumsschwäche und Wirtschaftskrise die Union. Zudem hatte es in Berlin immer geheißen, Deutschland müsse auf Frankreich warten, allein könne Deutschland die EU nicht voranbringen (was zutreffend war).

‘Edge of Chaos’ Review: A System in Need of an Overhaul

Date: 29-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Democratic capitalism is a peerless engine of economic growth, but it threatens to break down if current trends continue. George Melloan reviews “Edge of Chaos” by Dambisa Moyo.

Economist Dambisa Moyo

Dambisa Moyo, a Zambian-born economist, made a name for herself in 2009 with “Dead Aid,” arguing persuasively that foreign aid has preserved poverty in Africa instead of relieving it. Now she is embarked on an even larger project, proposing reforms in democracy itself in the developed world.

Ms. Moyo is a dedicated democratic capitalist. After earning a master’s degree at Harvard in public administration and a Ph.D. in economics at St. Antony’s College, Oxford, she did a turn at Goldman Sachs before becoming a full-time author. She serves on several corporate boards.

She writes that economic “growth matters—powerfully—to ordinary people” and that democratic capitalism has “proven itself, historically, to be a peerless tool for growth. . . . Nevertheless, the system urgently needs an overhaul if we are to jump-start the global economy.” She is concerned about the world’s rising debt level and about threats to international trade: “Established measurements suggest that globalization is now slowing, or worse, receding.” The diminution of global trade, the collapse of cross-border capital flows and the mounting constraints on the movement of labor—separately or together, she believes, these developments will result in deteriorating living standards and geopolitical unrest. There is even the danger, she adds, of “a global economic death spiral.”

If you overlook the hyperbole, Ms. Moyo’s diagnosis is worth pondering. The anti-immigration backlash in Europe and the United States, not to mention Donald Trump’s trade sparring and protectionist leanings, are unsettling. But what she offers up as a solution—she calls it her Blueprint for a New Democracy—sounds a little dodgy as well. To her credit, she offers the arguments both for and against her 10 reform proposals. Most of the proposals focus on shoring up America’s democratic functions, but they could easily apply, in broad principle, elsewhere.

Is Realism Trumping Populism?

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0, The Birth of a New Economy, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

Apr 27, 2018 Anatole Kaletsky, Project Syndicate

With economic conditions returning more or less to normal around the world after a decade of financial crises, nationalist populism is now seen as the biggest threat to global recovery. But is it possible that this consensus has emerged just as the populist wave has crested?

NEW YORK – With economic conditions returning more or less to normal around the world after a decade of financial crises, nationalist populism is now seen as the biggest threat to global recovery. That was certainly true of the finance ministers who gathered in Washington, DC, this month for the IMF’s annual spring meeting. But is it possible that this consensus has emerged just as the populist wave has crested? Rather than populist politics undermining economic recovery, could economic recovery be undermining populist politics?

Looking around the world, populist economic policy appears to be in retreat, even though no clear alternative is visible. In the United States, President Donald Trump seems to be curbing his protectionist instincts, and economic relations with China are stabilizing. In Europe, despite the media focus on the success of xenophobic politicians in Hungary and Poland, the pendulum is swinging away from economic nationalism in the countries that really matter: France, Germany, Spain, and Italy, where the two populist parties that recently achieved electoral breakthroughs are now vying to show their devotion to the euro.

Economy with a Fever

By John Mauldin

April 27, 2018

 Flattening Curve

M2 Growth or Lack Thereof

Cycle Studies
Debt Gap
Recession Watch

Getting a fever is no fun. You likely get chills, you sweat, and you’re just generally uncomfortable. You get tired easily and need to rest. But here’s the weird part: Fever isn’t the real problem. It’s a symptom of something else. You must treat whatever that is to relieve the fever.

Economic indicators are similar. Lately I see a lot of talk about the flattening yield curve and speculation it might invert as the economy enters recession. If that happens, the inverted yield curve won’t be the culprit. It will point to another culprit, or combination of them.

This is something I watch carefully because a recession is long overdue, if history means anything. Some argue this time is different. Maybe so, but I’m not inclined to bet on it. Today we’ll explore some reasons why.

 

Now, on with our fever treatment, which of course, brings up a story.

In late 2006, when the yield curve was last in the process of inverting, I put in a call to then New York Fed’s Dr. Fred Mishkin, who co-authored a seminal report reviewing 20 different indicators as recession forecasting tools. They found only the inverted yield curve had any true significance, and then it was generally a year early.

Switzerland Wants to Be the World Capital of Cryptocurrency

Date: 29-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Four of the 10 biggest initial coin offerings last year were in Switzerland, more than any other country

With its banking prowess, low taxes and elite universities, Switzerland hopes crypto-finance startups will make cities like Zug the heart of an emerging Crypto Valley in Europe.

ZUG, Switzerland—When 24-year-old Ian Worrall launched his crypto-investment startup MyBit last year, he chose this Swiss lakeside city.

It was an odd fit: the no-holds-barred corner of the financial markets meeting button-down Switzerland.

Yet this nation, as closely tied to its ultrasafe Swiss franc as it is to the Alps, is entranced by volatile digital currencies. Buildings in Zug and in Zurich, Switzerland’s financial center, are blossoming into crypto-finance hubs.

Four of the 10 biggest initial coin offerings last year were in Switzerland, according to PwC, more than any other country.