Zukunftslabor 2 des Arbeitskreises in Salzburg

Dienstag, 24. November 2009, 19:00 bis 21:00 Uhr

FH Salzburg, Campus Urstein

FBK_Salzburg Einladung  Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft 20091124

Bitte bei Interesse unbedingt anmelden: reinhard.bacher@sbg.at

Unsere Vision 2014 – Work in Progress

Beiliegend der aktuelle Status der Arbeit an unserer Vision.

Noch nicht fertig – aber schon sehr gut!? Update 5. November! Vision 2014 091105

Um die Vision gut zu verstehen, muss man allerdings

• Wofür wir stehen
• Anamnese
• Diagnose
• Szenarion
• Contingency Plan

kennen, die in den Meeting Minutes auf den Seiten 14 bis 58 beschrieben sind

Meeting Minutes des Arbeitskreises 4. Nov. 2009

Die Meeting Minutes des Arbeitskreises werden immer fortgeschrieben, d.h. diese Version ersetzt ältere Versionen.

Dies ist der letzte Stand unserer Arbeiten und Hintergrundinformationen. FinEco III_04-11-2009

Unser Contingency Plan – fertiggestellt

Was muss im Lichte unseres angenommenen Szenarios jetzt geschehen, um teilweise noch das Ärgste zu verhindern?

Dies ist im angefügten Contingency Plan zu lesen, den wir als fertiggestellt erachten!

Contingency Plan Update 091102

PS: Der Contingency Plan ist nur im Lichte von

• Wofür stehen wir?
• Anamnese
• Diagnose
• Szenarien

zu verstehen: diese finden Sie auf den Seiten 14 bis 46 der Meeting Minutes.

IMF Begins to Sell Gold: What Effect Do Central Banks Have on the Gold Price?

As of November 2, 2009, the IMF had sold 200 tons of gold to India’s central bank, half of what it plans to sell. It did so gradually over the latter half of October 2009 based on the daily price levels. Izabella Kaminski of Financial Times Alphaville suggests the move may explain „gold’s recent unusual and simultaneous moves against the four main currencies that comprise the SDR basket: the dollar, the yen, sterling and the euro. India might indeed be the first country to use its SDRs for currencies to buy IMF gold.“  The IMF has promised to let market actors know before any on-market sales of gold take place so as to limit any disruption.

UK: High-Street Banks in Flux While RBS and Lloyds Seal Funding

A further shake-up of the UK banking industry is underway as Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Lloyds Banking Group are demanded to sell off hundreds of branches by the European Commission. Both banks announced that they were raising £54.5 billion. According to BBC news, „the sales have been demanded by the European Commission to safeguard competition concerns after the two were bailed out by the UK government. RBS will sell 318 branches, while Lloyds will dispose of more than 600 branches over the next four years.“  According to the Financial Times, „Lloyds will escape relatively lightly from the European Commission crackdown. It is being forced to sell its Scottish retail banking operations, its Cheltenham & Gloucester branch network and its Intelligent Finance online business.“

Who is to Blame?

There are plenty of people who contributed to the sad state of our economy. But when it comes to bad decision making, these seven folks arguably deserve the bulk of the blame. (Want to add to this hall of shame? Follow the link

Stock Market Mysteries

   Date: 04-11-2009
 Source: Newsweek By Daniel Gross

If the economy’s stagnant, why are stocks up? The answer is disturbing.
Here’s a puzzle: The stock markets are doing very well, yet the performance of the underlying economy doesn’t seem to justify optimism. The buoyant S&P 500 has risen 53 percent since the March bottom. And while the economy expanded at a 3.5 percent rate in the third quarter, unemployment is high, incomes are stagnant, and consumers are shaky.

It’s possible that the stock market is just getting it wrong again. After all, the markets, which are supposed to process investors’ attitudes about the future, hit record highs in October 2007, just as the U.S. economy was about to pitch into recession. But it could be that the notion the stock market is an accurate gauge of the domestic economy’s temperature is outdated.

Just Desserts and Markets Being Silly Again

From John Mauldin’s Outside the Box, 2/11 EXTRAORDINARY ANALYSIS!!! (hfk)

by Jeremy Grantham

Just Desserts

I can’t tell you how surprised, even embarrassed I was to get the Nobel Prize in chemistry. Yes, I had passed the dreaded chemistry A-level for 18-year-olds back in England in 1958. But did they realize it was my third attempt? And, yes, I will take this honor as encouragement to do some serious thinking on the topic. I will also invest the award to help save the planet. Perhaps that was really the Nobel Committee’s sneaky motive, since there are regrettably no green awards yet. Still, all in all, it didn’t seem deserved. And then it occurred to me. Isn’t that the point these days: that rewards do not at all reflect our just desserts? Let’s review some of the more obvious examples.

1. For Missing the Unmissable

Bernanke, the most passionate cheerleader of Greenspan’s follies, is picked as his replacement, partly, it seems, for his belief that U.S. house prices would never decline and that at their peak in late 2005 they largely just reflected the unusual strength of the U.S. economy. As well as missing on his very own this 3-sigma (100-year) event in housing, he was completely clueless as to the potential disastrous interactions among lower house prices, new opaque financial instruments, heroically increased mortgages, lower lending standards, and internationally networked distribution. For these accumulated benefits to society, he was reappointed! So, yes, after the fashion of his mentor, he was lavish with help as the bubble burst. And how can we so quickly forget the very painful consequences of the previous lavishing after the 2000 bubble? Rewarding Bernanke is like reappointing the Titanic’s captain for facilitating an orderly disembarkation of the sinking ship (let’s pretend that happened) while ignoring the fact that he had charged recklessly through dark and dangerous waters.

Arcane Techniques, Generous Formulas Boost Payouts as Share Prices Fall

  Date: 03-11-2009
 Source: The Wall Street Journal
Subject: Pensions for Executives on Rise

Pensions for top executives rose an average of 19% in 2008, with more than 200 executives seeing pensions increase more than 50%, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.

The executive-pension growth stemmed partly from generous pension formulas, which are based on executive pay, according to the filings. Also adding to the pension jumps are arcane techniques that have received little scrutiny, including increases triggered when an executive reaches a certain age or when companies change interest rates used to calculate the pensions.

Executive pensions rose even as the share prices at the companies declined an average of 37% in 2008 and many firms froze employee pensions and suspended retirement-plan contributions.

Peter Morici: Behind the Dollar’s Dog Days

 

Maria Bartiromo talks to outspoken University of Maryland economist Peter Morici

By Maria Bartiromo

The continuing weakness of the dollar has led to what The Washington Post has called „a growing international chorus“ to push aside the greenback as the world’s reserve currency. The Post quoted a recent speech by World Bank President Robert Zoellick in which the former U.S. Trade Representative said: „The United States would be mistaken to take for granted the dollar’s place as the world’s predominant reserve currency.“ To better understand the dollar’s dilemma, I talked with Professor Peter Morici of the University of Maryland, a former chief economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.