Hypo Alpe Adria Group: Hätte man es richtig gemacht, wäre alles besser ausgegangen. 1. Stellungnahme des Föhrenbergkreises

Stellungnahme des Föhrenbergkreises. Von Günther Robol.   

1.      Was darf man nicht machen, wenn man eine Bank saniert!

1. Die Eigentümer und die Gläubiger nicht in die volle Verantwortung nehmen.
2. Im Vorhinein sagen, dass sie saniert werden soll. Also im Vorhinein sagen, dass sie eine Systembank sei. Daher wissen alle Beteiligten an den Verhandlungen, dass man sie jedenfalls retten werde.
3. Berater nehmen, die selbst ein großes finanzielles Engagement haben (EÖSC, Raiffeisen, Unicredit, BAWAG als Teilnehmer an den Verhandlungen) und daraus noch ein Geschäft machen wollen.
4. Eine Haftung für Altschulden übernehmen (und damit gegen die Regel Nr. 1 im M&A Geschäft verstoßen)
5. Als Käufer sich keine Option offenlassen (wie z.B. Insolvenz oder geordnete Abwicklung).  

2.    Was man hingegen hätte tun sollen!

Hypo Alpe Adria. Verschüttete Milch ? Oder ist noch was zu retten? 2. Stellungnahme des Föhrenbergkreises

Wir haben die Übernahme der Hypo Alpe Adria Group durch den österreichischen Staat als unnötig und als schweren Fehler kritisiert.  Wird sind ja nicht die einzigen, z.B. hat auch Daniel Gros, Leiter des führenden europäischen Think Tanks CEPS (Centre for European Policy Studies) dies im genau selben Sinne getan. Damit haben sich die Eigentümer und wesentliche Gläubiger (Banken) großteils aus ihrer Verantwortung gestohlen. Dafür sind Schulden in hoher Milliardenhöhe dem österreichischen Steuerzahler umgehängt worden, wie auch die Folgekosten mafioser und betrügerischer Machenschaften in Südosteuropa.  

Ist es nun zu spät? Was könnte umgehend noch getan werden, um die Kosten für den österreichischen Steuerzahler möglichst gering zu halten?

In Regulation We Trust?

Robert Skidelsky, Project Syndicate.

 

LONDON – From next year, on swearing allegiance to the Queen, all members of Britain’s House of Lords – and I am one of them – will be required to sign a written commitment to honesty and integrity. Unexceptionable principles, one might say. But, until recently, it was assumed that persons appointed to advise the sovereign were already of sufficient honesty and integrity to do so. They were assumed to be recruited from groups with internalized codes of honor.

The Age of Deleveraging

aus John Mauldin’s weekly e-letter

This is the season when pundits feel compelled to make annual forecasts. I will make mine, as I traditionally do, in the first letter of January. But already we have seen a wide range of forecasted outcomes. Are we going to grow at 5-6% or at 1-2% or dip back into recession? Why such disparity? I think part of the reason is a basic disagreement on the nature of the just-lapsed recession. Today we explore that issue. Then I point you to a way to help those who are desperately in need and only wish they had our problems. For those interested, I enclose a picture of my new granddaughter.

And finally, I start the process of getting ready, after ten years, to actually buy some stocks. Yes, it is true. Am I throwing in the towel and becoming a bull, or do I just see an opportunity? Stay tuned.

It’s All About Deleveraging

I did a very interesting one-hour show this week with Tom Ashbrook on his National Public Radio syndicated radio show called On Point. About 20 minutes into the show, Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton came on, and we had a pleasant debate and lively Q and A with listeners. Jeremy of course was the bull, expecting that next year the US will grow by 5-6%. I was the „bear,“ expecting growth in the 1-2% range. You can listen in at http://www.onpointradio.org/2009/12/an-economic-warning. It’s also available as a podcast on iTunes („On Point with Tom Ashbrook“) for a few more days.

EZB Financial Stability Review

PRESS RELEASE

18 December 2009 – Financial Stability Review December 2009

„The results show that euro area banks could face cumulative total losses of EUR 198 billion on their exposures to securities and losses of EUR 355 billion on their loan book exposures over the period 2007-2010. The total potential write-downs on securities and loans is thus currently estimated at EUR 553 billion over the same period. This figure is EUR 65 billion higher than the June 2009 estimate.“ Lucas Papademos, Vice President of the ECB

The extraordinary remedial actions taken by central banks and governments since late last year have been successful in restoring confidence in, and improving the resilience of, financial systems around the world. Financial system support measures have been addressing the funding challenges of key financial institutions and have bolstered their capital positions. These measures, together with sizeable macroeconomic policy stimuli, set in motion a mutually reinforcing process between financial system conditions and real economic performance, fostering improving business cycle prospects, as well as a fading of systemic risk.

Kleine Zeitung übernimmt die APA-Meldung über Föhrenbergkreis Stellungnahme zur Hypo

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/wirtschaft/hypo/2239595/foehrenbergkreis-uebernahme-staat-schwerer-fehler.story. Man beachte dazu auch den Kommentar.

Das Wirtschaftsblatt hat die Meldung auch übernommen. http://www.wirtschaftsblatt.at/home/oesterreich/branchen/401906/index.do

Und „Österreich“ meldet sich - ??? – auch zu Wort. http://www.oe24.at/money/Wirtschaft_geld/Foehrenbergkreis-uneins-ueber-Hypo-Verstaatlichung-0600774.ece

Drug Money Saved Banks in Global Crisis?

Yves Smith, Dec 13, 2009 9:57PM

Wow, so it wasn’t Turbo Timmy, the AIG rescue, the alphabet soup of Fed currency facilities or the currency swaps that saved the global banking system. The marginal suppliers of capital, according to the UN, were drug lords. That means that the UN is saying that the banks went into the money-laundering business on a much greater scale than before as a matter of survival. I would presume if this is accurate, it would also mean terrorist groups were able to more more money through the banking system.

We Face a Real Challenge in Dealing with that Feeling that the Crisis is Over

Mark Thoma, Dec 13, 2009 8:58PM

Paul Volcker is interviewed:  

Interview with Paul Volcker, by Gabor Steingart, Spiegel: …Spiegel: …[E]ven though there are still more people being fired than hired,… Ben Bernanke is saying that the recession is technically over. Do you agree with him?

Volcker: …We had a quarter of increased growth but I don’t think we are out of the woods. … The recovery is quite slow and I expect it to continue to be pretty slow and restrained for a variety of reasons and the possibility of a relapse can’t be entirely discounted. … We have not yet achieved self-reinforcing recovery. We are heavily dependent upon government support so far…, both in the financial markets and in the economy. …

Bank Collapse in Austria Brings Debt in Eastern Europe Center Stage

Edward Harrison. Credit Writedowns

Dec 15, 2009 6:49PM

In the links yesterday, I pointed to an FT article detailing the Austrian government’s nationalization of the insolvent bank Hypo Group Alpe Adria (HGAA). The financial institution, which has 40 billion Euros in assets, is the country’s sixth largest bank. But, in relative terms, this is a very large bankruptcy – using GDP at purchasing power parity, an American HGAA would have assets of $2.5 trillion, larger than any of the American banks. So, this is a very big deal and it points to renewed risks in banking and the possibility of contagion.

Is Austria Set To Join The Honourable Company of PIIGs?

Edward Hugh, Global ‘Economy Matters

Dec 16, 2009 8:52PM

Hypo Alpe Adria bank, the Austrian arm of the Bavarian bank Bayern LB, was nationalized on Monday for the symbolic price of three euros. This unexpected action brought to the world’s attention something which has been obvious to some of us for a very long time: namely that all is not well with Austria’s banking system, and it is not well for one very simple reason - over-exposure to Central and East European Markets. Of course, when some of us first started pointing the problem out, we were roundly rebuked from all quarters, what a ridiculous idea! Izabella Kaminska had a reasonable review of how the arguments were being marshalled back in January here, while Paul Krugman attracted the wrath of all Austria back in April by, as this blogger puts it, stating the obvious. 

64 Mrd. Euro Garantien für Landesbanken

Wien (APA) – Die österreichischen Bundesländer haften mit fast 64 Mrd. Euro für „ihre“ Landesbanken. Diese Summe hat ein APA-Rundruf in den Landesregierungen ergeben. Die größte Haftung ist bekanntlich das Land Kärnten eingegangen – derzeit sind es 18 Mrd. Euro, mehr als das Achtfache eines Kärntner Jahresbudgets.

Harvard-Ökonom Rogoff über den möglichen Staatsbankrott Österreichs

von Oliver Bayer | 17.12.2009 | 10:38, Wirtschaftsblatt

 Dem renommierten Ökonomen  zufolge stehen Österreich noch weitere Troubles bevor. Wie auch Hans Jörg Bruckberger im Leitartikel des WirtschaftsBlatt heute argumentiert, droht der Wirtschaft und den Anlegern noch jede Menge Ungemach. Es bilden sich Spekulationsblasen, das von der Notenbanken in den Markt gepumpte Geld landet kaum in der realen Wirtschaft. Hier die Kernaussagen des Ökonomen.

 US-Ökonom : Geht ein Staat in Osteuropa pleite, wird es auch für Österreich eng.