Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘WSJ’

Four Things Sure to Happen in Markets During 2018

Posted by hkarner - 8. Januar 2018

Date: 06-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Jason Zweig

You can’t be certain about anything in this market, except this

Forget Dow 25000. Every year is full of surprises, but there are a few things every investor should expect to see happen in 2018.

With companies moving less in lockstep, professional investors will declare this a “stock pickers’ market.” Asset managers will proclaim that the impending rise in interest rates means you need bond funds that can hold any kind of debt. After years of smooth increases, even a 5% decline will set off cries of panic. And reported returns will shoot upward as the financial crisis of 2008 is jettisoned from 10-year track records. A look at these trends now should help keep you from overreacting — or acting at all — when they transpire.

Correlations, or the extent to which companies move up or down together, are at their lowest in more than 25 years, according to T. Rowe Price.

Whenever stocks rise and fall independently like this, portfolio managers say beating the market becomes easier. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Advertisements

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

In Praise of Hierarchy

Posted by hkarner - 7. Januar 2018

Date: 06-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Niall Ferguson

Established, traditional order is under assault from freewheeling, networked disrupters as never before. But society craves centralized leadership, too.

It is a truth universally acknowledged that we now live in a networked world, where everyone and everything are connected. The corollary is that traditional hierarchical structures—not only states, but also churches, parties, and corporations—are in various states of crisis and decline. Disruption, disintermediation, and decentralization are the orders of the day. Hierarchy is at a discount, if not despised.

Networks rule not only in the realm of business. In politics, too, party establishments and their machines have been displaced by crowdfunded campaigns and viral messaging. Money, once a monopoly of the state, is being challenged by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which require no central banks to manage them, only consensus algorithms.

But is all this wise? In all the excitement of the age of hyper-connection, have we perhaps forgotten why hierarchies came into existence in the first place? Do we perhaps overestimate what can be achieved by ungoverned networks—and underestimate the perils of a world without any legitimate hierarchical structure?

True, few dare shed tears for yesterday’s hierarchies. Some Anglophile viewers of “The Crown” may thrill at the quaint stratification of Elizabeth II’s England, but the nearest approximations to royalty in America have lately been shorn of their gilt and glamour. Political dynasties of the recent past have been effaced, if not humiliated, by the upstart Donald Trump, while Hollywood’s elite of exploitative men is in disarray. The spirit of the age is revolutionary; the networked crowd yearns to “smack down” or “shame” each and every authority figure. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel, Books | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

President Trump Denounces Steve Bannon After Comments in Book

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2018

Date: 04-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Former strategist calls 2016 meeting with Russian ‘treasonous’; president says Bannon ‘lost his mind’

WASHINGTON—President Donald Trump publicly repudiated Steve Bannon, his former senior strategist and onetime campaign chief, after a new book surfaced in which Mr. Bannon made scathing and highly personal criticisms of some of the president’s top advisers, including several family members.

“Steve Bannon has nothing to do with me or my Presidency,” Mr. Trump said in a statement released to reporters on Wednesday. “When he was fired, he not only lost his job, he lost his mind.”

In the book, a copy of which was viewed by The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Bannon called a June 2016 meeting between top Trump campaign aides and a Russian lawyer “treasonous” and aired concerns that missteps by aides could lead to legal jeopardy for the president.

The meeting has become a focus of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Moscow’s meddling in the 2016 election and whether Trump campaign aides colluded with the Kremlin in the interference. Mr. Trump has said his campaign didn’t collude with Russia, and Moscow has denied meddling in the U.S. election. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel, Books | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Biggest Risk to the Eurozone’s Booming Economy: Inflation

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2018

Date: 04-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Simon Nixon

What did forecasters miss in 2017 and what might they be missing this time?

For the first time in a decade, economic forecasters appear to be unambiguously optimistic about the prospects for the eurozone economy. Perhaps that isn’t surprising given how badly wrong-footed they were by the strength of the recovery in 2017.

A year ago, the European Central Bank was forecasting growth of 1.7% while the consensus among independent forecasters was 1.3%. Yet the ECB now reckons that the eurozone grew in 2017 by 2.4%. Given that it was the fourth consecutive year of economic growth, ECB board member Benoît Coeuré insists this should no longer be called a recovery but an expansion. Some even call it a boom.

Certainly the latest data points to a very strong start to the New Year. Business and consumer confidence in the eurozone are at their highest levels since 2001, according to the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator, while the latest surveys of purchasing managers show optimism among manufacturers at record levels and export orders at new highs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Google and Intel Beware: China Is Gunning for Dominance in AI Chips

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2018

Date: 04-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

With more than 750 million people online, China provides plenty of consumers and data for firms to use

China is seeking to dominate the global market for processors that use artificial intelligence.

The silicon part of Silicon Valley needs to watch out. Competitors in China think it’s finally their turn to shine.

As the world’s largest market for semiconductors, China has tried mightily—without much success—to challenge the dominance of Intel Corp. and Qualcomm Inc. in making central processing units, the brains of computers and smartphones.

Now, some ambitious Chinese companies see an opportunity to take the lead in building processors that use artificial intelligence to make phones, cars and home appliances interact with us more seamlessly. Think of home air conditioners that can recognize family members and adjust to their temperature preferences. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

Dow Industrials Cross 25000 for First Time

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2018

Date: 04-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Should it close above that mark, milestone would represent the fastest 1,000-point gain in the blue-chip index’s history

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped past 25000 for the first time Thursday, continuing a rapid ascent in what would be the fastest 1,000-point gain in its history if it closes above that mark.

The blue-chip index, which heavily weights industrial giants like Boeing Co. and Caterpillar Inc., was recently up 141 points, or 0.6%, at 25064.

Thursday’s moves marked the latest feat for a rally that has repeatedly wrong-footed skeptics and sent stock indexes around the world to multiyear highs. The Dow industrials hit five thousand-point milestones last year, its most such records in its 120-year history.

Faster economic growth around the globe and improving sentiment from both consumers and businesses—both of which were elusive for many years since the financial crisis a decade ago—have helped power this rally in recent weeks.

The first days of the new year brought more data suggesting that economies around the world continue to expand. Activity in China’s service sector expanded at a faster pace in December to its highest level in more than three years, the latest indication of strength in the world’s No. 2 economy. In Europe, a purchasing managers survey suggest growth in early 2018 will continue at a similar pace, as strong new order flows persuaded businesses to hire additional workers at the joint-fastest pace in the last 17 years. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , | Leave a Comment »

Bitcoin Isn’t a Currency, It’s a Commodity—Price It That Way

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2018

Date: 04-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

If bitcoin has more in common with gold than dollars, it could have a long way to fall

Is a bitcoin worth the $15,000 it commands today, or is it really worth about $3,000? The huge runup in value since September suggests the lower figure.

Cryptocurrency fans typically fall into two groups. One sees the currencies as ways to buy and sell things; the other views them as investments. For now, the investment crowd is winning out: Bitcoin remains a cumbersome way to purchase most goods, but its value has skyrocketed, nearly quadrupling since mid-September.

If bitcoin is an investment, it most closely resembles gold. Both are stores of value that provide some built-in protection against inflation because there is a finite supply and because extracting new deposits gets more expensive over time, barring big technology changes.

If bitcoin really is digital gold, however, investors should analyze it like a commodity—looking at supply constraints and the factors driving demand. That exercise produces worrying results.

Bitcoin and gold are both stores of value that provide some built-in protection against inflation.

The most important factor in gold prices over the long run is production costs, which act something like a natural price floor when demand dips. Of course, gold prices can also temporarily move much higher when demand is strong but tend to fall back toward the marginal cost of production once worries about inflation or the dollar subside and gold begins to lose its appeal as a hedge. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

EU Competition Chief Tracks How Companies Use ‘Big Data’

Posted by hkarner - 4. Januar 2018

Date: 02-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Regulators say the information could allow big businesses to exclude rivals from markets

European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager is concerned about the amount of data companies store and its implications for rival businesses.

BRUSSELS—European Union antitrust regulators are eyeing an increasingly important corporate currency: data.

The European Union’s competition chief is zeroing in on how companies stockpile and use so-called big data, or enormous computer files of customer records, industry statistics and other information. The move diverges starkly from a hands-off approach in the U.S., where regulators emphasize the benefits big data brings to innovation.

“In some areas, these data are extremely valuable,” Margrethe Vestager, the European commissioner for competition, said in an interview. “They can foreclose the market—they can give the parties that have them immense business opportunities that are not available to others.”

At issue for European antitrust regulators is whether companies holding big data, from Alphabet Inc.’s Google and Facebook Inc. to German car maker BMW AG , can exclude new competitors from markets if they control exclusive information needed to satisfy customers or cut costs.

The regulators say big data isn’t bad in itself, but when reviewing mergers or monopolies they want to ensure that rivals aren’t prevented from competing because they lack access to that information. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund Makes Monster Bet on Bitcoin

Posted by hkarner - 4. Januar 2018

Date: 03-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Few mainstream investors have bought large sums of bitcoin, scared off by concerns about cybersecurity and liquidity

Peter Thiel

One of the biggest names in Silicon Valley is placing a moonshot bet on bitcoin.

Founders Fund, the venture-capital firm co-founded by Peter Thiel, has amassed hundreds of millions of dollars of the volatile cryptocurrency, people familiar with the matter said. The bet has been spread across several of the firm’s most recent funds, the people said, including one that began investing in mid-2017 and made bitcoin one of its first investments.

Founders and Mr. Thiel, 50 years old, are well-known for early investments in companies like Facebook Inc. that sometimes take years to come to fruition. The bitcoin bet is quickly showing promise. Founders bought around $15 million to $20 million in bitcoin, and it has told investors the firm’s haul is now worth hundreds of millions of dollars after the digital currency’s ripping rise in the past year.

It isn’t clear if Founders has sold any of its holdings yet. The bet hasn’t been previously reported. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , | Leave a Comment »

Nasdaq Crests 7000 as Tech Giants Roar Into 2018

Posted by hkarner - 4. Januar 2018

Date: 03-01-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Tech-focused index jumped 28% in 2017, beating the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 25% gain and S&P 500’s 19% rise

Stretching
Companies in the Nasdaq are trading at the highest multiples of their last 12months of earnings since 2004.

The Nasdaq Composite closed above 7000 for the first time Tuesday after racing to a fresh 1,000-point milestone in just over eight months—a pace not seen since the heights of the technology boom.

Many global stock indexes have hit records or multiyear highs in recent months, lifted by signs of a pickup in economic expansion around the world.

The Nasdaq has risen faster than other major U.S. indexes over the past year as investors, frustrated with low interest rates and tepid global growth, bet on the prospects of large technology companies such as Apple Inc., Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp., all of which are heavily weighted in the index.

Those three companies, along with fellow heavyweights Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc., collectively contributed more than two-thirds of the points that carried the Nasdaq from one 1000-point milestone to another, according to stock-market research firm Birinyi Associates.

Such bets helped the Nasdaq jump 28% in 2017, beating the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 25% gain and S&P 500’s 19% rise. The only two times the Nasdaq has passed 1,000-point milestones faster were the 38 trading sessions the index took to advance to 4000 in 1999 and the 49 sessions it needed to top 5000 in 2000—shortly before the dot-com bust. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »