Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Turkey’

Gigantischer Schuldenberg stellt Türkei in den Schatten

Posted by hkarner - 30. August 2018

Markus Bernath2, 9. August 2018, 16:11

Die türkischen Dollarschulden haben ein Ausmaß wie vor der Bankenkrise im Jahr 2000 erreicht, warnt die US-Bank JPMorgan

Für die türkische Wirtschaft beginnt der heiße Herbst bereits jetzt. Währungsverfall, Inflation und eine wie gelähmt erscheinende Zentralbank bringen die Führung in Ankara nach dem Ende der Sommerpause unter Druck. Die Lira setzte am Mittwoch nach einer längeren Phase der Stabilität in der zweiten Augusthälfte ihren Abstieg fort und näherte sich der Marke von 6,50 für einen Dollar. Die Ratingagentur Moody’s hatte zuvor die Bonität der türkischen Großbanken und der führenden Unternehmen des Landes wegen der sich abzeichnenden Schuldenprobleme herabgestuft. Laut Moody’s stützen sich die türkischen Banken auf ein Kapital von 186 Milliarden Dollar (Stand Juni 2018), das in der US-Währung notiert ist. 41 Prozent davon oder 77 Milliarden Dollar müssten innerhalb der nächsten zwölf Monate refinanziert werden.

Düstere Aussicht

JPMorgan zeichnet ein noch düstereres Bild. Laut einer Studie, die am Mittwoch der Nachrichtenagentur Reuters vorlag, belaufen sich die Dollar-Verbindlichkeiten der Türkei, die bis Juli 2019 bedient werden müssen, auf 179 Milliarden Dollar. Das entspräche fast einem Viertel der türkischen Wirtschaftsleistung und einem Rekordstand, wie er vor Ausbruch der türkischen Bankenkrise in den Jahren 2000 und 2001 zu beobachten war. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Die Rückkehr des kranken Mannes am Bosporus

Posted by hkarner - 30. August 2018

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany’s strong support for NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.

BERLIN – Das europäische 19. Jahrhundert hindurch war die sogenannte „orientalische“ Frage, d. h. die rapide voranschreitende Auflösung des osmanischen Reiches, jenes damals so genannten „kranken Mannes am Bosporus“, und wer von den großen europäischen Mächten seine Erbfolge antreten würde, eine der großen geo- und machtpolitischen Fragen der Zeit. Es kam nicht von ungefähr, dass die Selbstentleibung Alteuropas im Ersten Weltkrieg vom Balkan ausging, jener geopolitischen Bruchzone dreier großer, allesamt dem historischen Untergang entgegen treibenden Imperien – dem osmanischen Reich, Österreich-Ungarn und dem Russischen Kaiserreich.

Nach der Niederlage im Ersten Weltkrieg verschwanden die Osmanen, gemeinsam mit den beiden anderen multinationalen Reichen. Die Türkei wurde zur Republik, unter General Mustafa Kemal zog sich die geschlagene türkische Armee auf Anatolien zurück, wehrte dort militärisch erfolgreich  eine griechisch Intervention und eine Akzeptanz der Pariser Vorortverträge (Vertrag von Sèvres) ab . Mustafa Kemals Ziel war es, die Türkei zu einem laizistischen, modernen, westlichen Staat zu machen, zu einem Teil Europas und nicht des Nahen und Mittleren Ostens. Um dieses historische Ziel zu erreichen, bediente er sich autoritärer Mittel, schuf einen hybriden Staat, eine Mischung aus faktischer Militärherrschaft und formaler Demokratie mit Parteien. In zyklisch wiederkehrenden großen Krisen der türkischen Demokratie wurde diese mehrfach durch temporäre Militärdiktaturen abgelöst. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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A Tragedy for Turkey and the US

Posted by hkarner - 28. August 2018

Anne O. Krueger

Anne O. Krueger, a former World Bank chief economist and former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is Senior Research Professor of International Economics at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Development, Stanford University.

After years of unsustainable growth driven by loose fiscal and monetary policies and foreign borrowing, Turkey is finally facing an economic reckoning. But with the Trump administration doubling tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum, the prospects for reform have shrunk substantially.

WASHINGTON, DC – Among the many casualties of US President Donald Trump’s trade-policy misadventures, Turkey may be the saddest case to date. Until a few years ago, Turkey was an economic and geopolitical success story – one in which the United States could proudly claim to have played a key role. Though there were occasional bilateral disputes, Turkey remained a reliable ally for many decades.

But all that began to change in recent years. This summer, the Turkish economy started imploding under the weight of overly loose monetary and fiscal policies. Then, the US responded to the Turkish government’s failure to release an imprisoned American pastor by “punishing” the country with trade barriers and targeted sanctions. Trump announced that he was doubling US import tariffs on Turkish aluminum and steel, to 20% and 50%, respectively. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Economic Costs of Erdoğan

Posted by hkarner - 27. August 2018

Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy, Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science, and, most recently, Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy.

For more than a decade, financial markets gave Recep Tayyip Erdoğan the benefit of the doubt and supplied the Turkish economy with easy credit. Such debt-fueled growth almost always ends badly, and now it has.

DURHAM/CAMBRIDGE – Turkey’s political model has long lost its luster, but a growing diplomatic crisis with the equally erratic administration of US President Donald Trump has now pushed the country’s economy into a full-fledged currency crisis. The Turkish lira has lost nearly half of its value over the last 12 months. And, because Turkish banks and firms have borrowed heavily in foreign currency, the lira’s freefall threatens to bring much of the private sector down with it.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, having won the first election since Turkey’s formal change from a parliamentary to a presidential system in June, now governs the country autocratically. He relies on government ministers selected more for their loyalty (and family ties to him) than for their competence. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Has the Emerging-Economy Crisis Cycle Ended?

Posted by hkarner - 24. August 2018

José Antonio Ocampo

José Antonio Ocampo is a board member of Banco de la República, Colombia’s central bank, professor at Columbia University, and Chair of the UN Economic and Social Council’s Committee for Development Policy. He was Minister of Finance of Colombia and United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.  He is the co-author (with Luis Bértola) of The Economic Development of Latin America since Independence.

Judging by the limited contagion from the Turkish crisis, it seems that longstanding patterns in emerging markets may no longer apply. But that does not mean that emerging economies are in the clear; on the contrary, they still have plenty to worry about, not least an escalating trade war.

BOGOTÁ – Crises are nothing new for emerging economies, which have repeated the same patterns again and again, with often-devastating results. But have those patterns finally been broken?

Emerging economies have experienced boom-bust cycles in external financing for decades. The boom phase generates current-account, fiscal, and private-sector deficits – outcomes that are compounded by increases in domestic financing. Eventually, however, high debt levels lead to a loss of confidence and sharp cuts in external financing – a so-called sudden stop – producing balance-of-payments, fiscal, and financial crises. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Erdoğan’s Authoritarian Quackery

Posted by hkarner - 17. August 2018

Nina L. Khrushcheva, the author of Imagining Nabokov: Russia Between Art and Politics and The Lost Khrushchev: A Journey into the Gulag of the Russian Mind, is Professor of International Affairs at The New School and a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute.

Turkey’s currency is plunging, yet the central bank has been all but prohibited from raising interest rates, because Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan believes that raising interest rates actually causes inflation. What is it about dictators that leads them so consistently down the rabbit hole of charlatanism and conspiracy theory?

TBILISI – Why do conspiracy theories and general charlatanism so often receive their strongest support from the world’s dictators? Sure, dictators are almost always oddballs themselves, but that cannot be all there is to it. In fact, it is worth asking whether quackery is a necessary feature of authoritarian rule.

The latest evidence that it is can be found at the heart of Turkey’s current economic crisis. Turkey is saddled with debt and its currency, the lira, is plunging, yet the central bank has been all but prohibited from defending the currency by raising interest rates, because Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan believes that raising interest rates actually causes inflation.

The economics profession would beg to differ. But Erdoğan, as with much else, is not inclined to listen. On the contrary, to force the central bank to pursue his bizarre monetary policy, Erdoğan has installed his utterly unqualified son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, as the country’s Minister of Finance and Treasury. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can Turkey Rewrite the Crisis-Management Rules?

Posted by hkarner - 17. August 2018

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

Rather than sticking with the approach taken by numerous other countries – including Argentina earlier this year – by raising interest rates and seeking some form of IMF support, Turkey has shunned both in a very public manner. Unless it changes course, the government risks much wider damage – and not just in Turkey.

LAGUNA BEACH – Whether by accident or design, Turkey is trying to rewrite the chapter on crisis management in the emerging-market playbook. Rather than opting for interest-rate hikes and an external funding anchor to support domestic policy adjustments, the government has adopted a mix of less direct and more partial measures – and this at a time when Turkey is in the midst of an escalating tariff tit-for-tat with the United States, as well as operating in a more fluid global economy. How all this plays out is important not only for Turkey, but also for other emerging economies that already have had to cope with waves of financial contagion.

The initial phases of Turkey’s crisis were a replay of past emerging-market currency crises. A mix of domestic and external events – an over-stretched credit-led growth strategy; concerns about the central bank’s policy autonomy and effectiveness; and a less hospitable global liquidity environment, owing in part to rising US interest rates – destabilized the foreign-exchange market. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The West Must Face Reality in Turkey

Posted by hkarner - 16. August 2018

Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003), and was President George W. Bush’s special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author of A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order.

Turkey’s currency crisis and standoff with the United States over the imprisonment of an American pastor have exposed the crumbling edifice of the two countries‘ Cold War-era partnership. Rather than hold out hope that Turkey will return to the Western fold, US and European policymakers must consider a new policy toward the country.

NEW YORK – Now that Turkey is at loggerheads with its erstwhile ally, the United States, the country’s currency crisis has morphed into a political problem of the first order. The immediate issue is Turkey’s refusal to release the American pastor Andrew Brunson, who is being held on charges of terrorism, espionage, and subversion for his alleged role in the failed July 2016 coup against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The US government is right to object to Brunson’s detention. But its reaction has been counterproductive. In particular, the imposition of additional US tariffs on imports of Turkish steel and aluminum could further undermine confidence in Turkey’s economy, triggering a wider crisis that would do serious harm to the global economy. Moreover, tariffs allow Erdoğan to blame his country’s economic woes on America, rather than on his own government’s incompetence. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Der Verfall der Lira birgt auch für Europa und Asien ein Ansteckungsrisiko

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2018

Die Lira-Krise trifft nicht nur Schwellenländer – und ist längst zur Schuldenkrise geworden. Sie kann schnell auch auf etablierte Märkte überspringen.

13.08.2018 – 16:42 Uhr Handelsblatt.com

Die Währungskrise hat sich zu einer Schuldenkrise ausgewachsen. Sie kommt zur Unzeit

Es mutet wie ein Akt der Verzweiflung an: Erst fordert der türkische Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan seine Landsleute auf, angesichts des Kursverfalls der Lira Euro und Dollar sowie Gold in Landeswährung zu tauschen. Dann warnt er heimische Unternehmen, Geld in ausländischer Währung abzuheben.

Die Nervosität ist trotz aller Durchhalteparolen zum Greifen. Bricht die türkische Wirtschaft zusammen, birgt das erhebliche Risiken einer Ansteckung in Asien und Europa.

Wie schlecht es um die Türkei steht, zeigen die Kreditausfallversicherungen für fünfjährige Anleihen der Türkei. Sie haben den höchsten Stand seit der Finanzkrise 2008 erreicht. Die Währungskrise hat sich zu einer Schuldenkrise ausgewachsen, die schnell auf andere Schwellenländer überspringen kann. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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