Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

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Posts Tagged ‘Turkey’

Erdoğan’s Authoritarian Quackery

Posted by hkarner - 17. August 2018

Nina L. Khrushcheva, the author of Imagining Nabokov: Russia Between Art and Politics and The Lost Khrushchev: A Journey into the Gulag of the Russian Mind, is Professor of International Affairs at The New School and a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute.

Turkey’s currency is plunging, yet the central bank has been all but prohibited from raising interest rates, because Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan believes that raising interest rates actually causes inflation. What is it about dictators that leads them so consistently down the rabbit hole of charlatanism and conspiracy theory?

TBILISI – Why do conspiracy theories and general charlatanism so often receive their strongest support from the world’s dictators? Sure, dictators are almost always oddballs themselves, but that cannot be all there is to it. In fact, it is worth asking whether quackery is a necessary feature of authoritarian rule.

The latest evidence that it is can be found at the heart of Turkey’s current economic crisis. Turkey is saddled with debt and its currency, the lira, is plunging, yet the central bank has been all but prohibited from defending the currency by raising interest rates, because Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan believes that raising interest rates actually causes inflation.

The economics profession would beg to differ. But Erdoğan, as with much else, is not inclined to listen. On the contrary, to force the central bank to pursue his bizarre monetary policy, Erdoğan has installed his utterly unqualified son-in-law, Berat Albayrak, as the country’s Minister of Finance and Treasury. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can Turkey Rewrite the Crisis-Management Rules?

Posted by hkarner - 17. August 2018

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

Rather than sticking with the approach taken by numerous other countries – including Argentina earlier this year – by raising interest rates and seeking some form of IMF support, Turkey has shunned both in a very public manner. Unless it changes course, the government risks much wider damage – and not just in Turkey.

LAGUNA BEACH – Whether by accident or design, Turkey is trying to rewrite the chapter on crisis management in the emerging-market playbook. Rather than opting for interest-rate hikes and an external funding anchor to support domestic policy adjustments, the government has adopted a mix of less direct and more partial measures – and this at a time when Turkey is in the midst of an escalating tariff tit-for-tat with the United States, as well as operating in a more fluid global economy. How all this plays out is important not only for Turkey, but also for other emerging economies that already have had to cope with waves of financial contagion.

The initial phases of Turkey’s crisis were a replay of past emerging-market currency crises. A mix of domestic and external events – an over-stretched credit-led growth strategy; concerns about the central bank’s policy autonomy and effectiveness; and a less hospitable global liquidity environment, owing in part to rising US interest rates – destabilized the foreign-exchange market. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The West Must Face Reality in Turkey

Posted by hkarner - 16. August 2018

Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, previously served as Director of Policy Planning for the US State Department (2001-2003), and was President George W. Bush’s special envoy to Northern Ireland and Coordinator for the Future of Afghanistan. He is the author of A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order.

Turkey’s currency crisis and standoff with the United States over the imprisonment of an American pastor have exposed the crumbling edifice of the two countries‘ Cold War-era partnership. Rather than hold out hope that Turkey will return to the Western fold, US and European policymakers must consider a new policy toward the country.

NEW YORK – Now that Turkey is at loggerheads with its erstwhile ally, the United States, the country’s currency crisis has morphed into a political problem of the first order. The immediate issue is Turkey’s refusal to release the American pastor Andrew Brunson, who is being held on charges of terrorism, espionage, and subversion for his alleged role in the failed July 2016 coup against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The US government is right to object to Brunson’s detention. But its reaction has been counterproductive. In particular, the imposition of additional US tariffs on imports of Turkish steel and aluminum could further undermine confidence in Turkey’s economy, triggering a wider crisis that would do serious harm to the global economy. Moreover, tariffs allow Erdoğan to blame his country’s economic woes on America, rather than on his own government’s incompetence. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Der Verfall der Lira birgt auch für Europa und Asien ein Ansteckungsrisiko

Posted by hkarner - 15. August 2018

Die Lira-Krise trifft nicht nur Schwellenländer – und ist längst zur Schuldenkrise geworden. Sie kann schnell auch auf etablierte Märkte überspringen.

13.08.2018 – 16:42 Uhr Handelsblatt.com

Die Währungskrise hat sich zu einer Schuldenkrise ausgewachsen. Sie kommt zur Unzeit

Es mutet wie ein Akt der Verzweiflung an: Erst fordert der türkische Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan seine Landsleute auf, angesichts des Kursverfalls der Lira Euro und Dollar sowie Gold in Landeswährung zu tauschen. Dann warnt er heimische Unternehmen, Geld in ausländischer Währung abzuheben.

Die Nervosität ist trotz aller Durchhalteparolen zum Greifen. Bricht die türkische Wirtschaft zusammen, birgt das erhebliche Risiken einer Ansteckung in Asien und Europa.

Wie schlecht es um die Türkei steht, zeigen die Kreditausfallversicherungen für fünfjährige Anleihen der Türkei. Sie haben den höchsten Stand seit der Finanzkrise 2008 erreicht. Die Währungskrise hat sich zu einer Schuldenkrise ausgewachsen, die schnell auf andere Schwellenländer überspringen kann. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Turkish Lira Plunges Further; Erdogan Fails to Assuage Investors

Posted by hkarner - 14. August 2018

Date: 13-08-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Lira falls as much as 10%, shaking emerging markets world-wide

Turkey’s currency plunged again Monday, rattling other vulnerable emerging markets, as a defiant speech from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and policy moves from the nation’s central bank failed to assuage investors about the country’s perilous financial condition.

The lira fell as much as 10% in early Monday trading to as low as 7.131 against the U.S. dollar, according to FactSet. It later pared some of the losses but President Erdogan’s fiery tone hit the currency again, leaving it down 6.95% lower at 6.91 against the dollar.

The lira is down more than 40% this year, battered by concerns about the NATO member’s political and economic stability and a continuing trade spat with the U.S.

“We will not retreat from our position,” Mr. Erdogan told a conference in Ankara, adding Turkey wouldn’t allow the U.S. “to lay its hands on achievements we gained at the cost of blood.”

As part of a plan announced earlier Monday, Turkish authorities made efforts to boost liquidity in the market, lowering the amount of reserves local lenders must park with the central bank. The move should help inject about 10 billion liras, $6 billion and $3 billion equivalent of gold into the financial system, the central bank said.

But analysts said the measures won’t have any direct impact on the lira because it doesn’t ease a core concern—the hefty debt exposure of Turkish banks and corporations—and warned the central bank has limited reserves of its own to weather the storm. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Türkei ist nur der Anfang: Neue Finanzkrise hat begonnen

Posted by hkarner - 13. August 2018

Dank an H.G.

Mit zu vielen riskanten Krediten hat sich die Finanzwelt in die nächste Krise gestürzt. Neue Banken-Rettungen sind nur eine Frage der Zeit.

Der dramatische Kurssturz der türkischen Lira versetzte am vergangenen Freitag die Finanzmärkte in Aufruhr. In den Hintergrund rückte die Tatsache, dass die Talfahrt bereits 2013 begonnen hat und schon seit Herbst 2016 schneller wurde. Als im Laufe des Freitag US-Präsident Donald Trump plötzlich die Zölle auf die zwei wichtigsten Exportprodukte der Türkei, auf Stahl und Aluminium, verdoppelte, geriet die Entwicklung  vollends außer Kontrolle. Die Lira war Freitag abends mit 6,42 TRY für einen Dollar und 6,93 für einen Euro nur mehr halb so viel wert wie vor einigen Jahren. Bis zum Herbst 2016 hatte sich der Kurs noch bei etwa 3,5 TRY bewegt.

Der Kurssturz der Lira ist die  Folge konkreter Probleme

Da Donald Trump derzeit vielfach für Aufregung sorgt, entstand am Freitag der Eindruck, der US-Präsident hätte die Krise ausgelöst. Der türkische Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdoğan erklärte auch prompt, die USA würden die Türkei bedrohen, kündigte an, sich nach Moskau zu orientieren und erklärte pathetisch, der Westen habe den Dollar, die Türkei aber habe Gott. Tatsächlich hat die Türkei konkrete wirtschaftliche Probleme wie sehr viele andere so genannte „emerging markets“ auch. Dass die Politik in der Türkei keinen Beitrag leistet, um das Vertrauen in das Land zu stärken, darf nicht unerwähnt bleiben: Massenverhaftungen von vermeintlich Verdächtigen und Massenkündigungen von Beamten, die beide zum Teil wieder zurückgenommen werden, sowie Prozesse gegen unabhängige Journalisten lassen am Rechtsstaat zweifeln. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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After decades of triumph, democracy is losing ground

Posted by hkarner - 16. Juni 2018

Date: 14-06-2018
Source: The Economist

What is behind the reversal?

IN A glass case at the Diyarbakir Bar Association are a striped shirt, dark coat and coiled belt. They belonged to the former chairman, Tahir Elci, a lawyer who was murdered in 2015 amid clashes between the Turkish army and Kurdish separatists. He was standing by the Four-Legged Minaret, a 500-year-old landmark in the ancient city, calling for peace. Someone shot him in the head. No one knows who killed him. The government blames Kurdish terrorists. Many Kurds blame the government. After Elci’s death, the army pounded the rebel-held part of Diyarbakir to rubble. The debris, including body parts, was heaped onto trucks and dumped by a river. Locals are scared to talk about any of this.

Barely a decade ago, Turkey was a budding democracy and aspired to join the European Union. Now it is galloping towards dictatorship. In 2016 army officers tried to mount a coup, putting tanks in the streets, bombing parliament and nearly assassinating the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It was quickly scotched. Mr Erdogan launched a purge. Over 200,000 people, mostly suspected members of the Gulen movement—the Islamist sect said to have led the failed putsch—were jailed or sacked. Anyone could be arrested for having attended a Gulenist school, holding an account at a Gulen-owned bank, or even possessing $1 bills, which the government says were a mark of Gulenism.

Millions of Turks are now terrified of their president. However, plenty admire him for protecting them from the Gulenists. Adem, an estate agent in Istanbul, congratulates Mr Erdogan for “cleaning away the enemies within”—echoing a government slogan. He says, of the purge’s victims: “They’ve been arrested because they’ve done something wrong.” He adds: “In America if you steal state secrets they put you in the electric chair, don’t they?” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Wirtschaftsboom am Bosporus: Türkei wächst stärker als China

Posted by hkarner - 29. März 2018

Im Vorjahr ist die türkische Wirtschaft um starke 7,4 Prozent gewachsen, in China lag das Wachstum bei „nur“ 6,9 Prozent.

Nach einer Wachstumsdelle wegen des Putschversuches 2016 hat die Wirtschaft in der Türkei im vergangenen Jahr noch stärker als die in China zugelegt. Die türkische Volkswirtschaft sei 2017 im Jahresvergleich um 7,4 Prozent gewachsen, wie das türkische Statistikamt in Ankara heute, Donnerstag, mitteilte. Der Wert übertraf die Erwartungen von Analysten leicht. Im Jahr zuvor hatte das nachträglich angepasste Wirtschaftswachstum bei 3,2 Prozent gelegen. In China lag das Wachstum der weltweit zweitgrößten Volkswirtschaft 2017 im Jahresvergleich nach offiziellen Angaben bei 6,9 Prozent.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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