Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Trust’

Mistrust in America could sink the economy

Posted by hkarner - 12. August 2017

Date: 10-08-2017
Source: The Economist: Schumpeter

Part of the problem is a lack of competition in some industries

AMERICA is a grumpy and confused place. For an overarching explanation of what has gone wrong, a decline in trust is a good place to start. Trust can be defined as the expectation that other people, or organisations, will act in ways that are fair to you. In the White House and beyond there is precious little of it about. People increasingly view institutions as corrupt, strangers as suspicious, rivals as illegitimate and facts as negotiable.

The share of Americans who say “most people can be trusted” fell from 44% in 1976 to 32% in 2016, according to a survey from the University of Chicago. In a new book, “The Retreat of Western Liberalism”, Edward Luce, a commentator for the Financial Times in Washington, argues that distrust will contribute to America’s decline and eventually, even, to autocracy. Lack of faith is chewed over in boardrooms, too. In his latest letter to shareholders, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase’s boss, describes trust as America’s “secret sauce” and worries that the bottle is running dry. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Demystifying the Black Box That Is AI

Posted by hkarner - 11. August 2017

Date: 10-08-2017
Source: Scientific American By Ariel Bleicher

Humans are increasingly entrusting our security, health and safety to “black box” intelligent machines

When Jason Matheny joined the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) as a program manager in 2009, he made a habit of chatting to the organization’s research analysts. “What do you need?” he would ask, and the answer was always the same: a way to make more accurate predictions. “What if we made you an artificially intelligent computer model that forecasts real-world events such as political instability, weapons tests and disease outbreaks?” Matheny would ask. “Would you use it?”

The analysts’ response was enthusiastic, except for one crucial caveat. “It came down to whether they could explain the model to a decision maker—like the secretary of Defense,” says Matheny, who is now IARPA’s director. What if the artificial intelligence (AI) model told defense analysts that North Korea was getting ready to bomb Alaska? “They don’t want to be in the position of thinking the system could be wrong but not being sure why or how,” he adds.

Therein lies today’s AI conundrum: The most capable technologies—namely, deep neural networks—are notoriously opaque, offering few clues as to how they arrive at their conclusions. But if consumers are to, say, entrust their safety to AI-driven vehicles or their health to AI-assisted medical care, they will want to know how these systems make critical decisions. “[Deep neural nets] can be really good but they can also fail in mysterious ways,” says Anders Sandberg, a senior research fellow at the University of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute. “People are starting to wake up to the realization that you just can’t trust this software completely.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Three-quarters of world has little or no confidence in Trump, Pew study finds

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juni 2017

Date: 27-06-2017
Source: The Guardian

Support for US president now below that of George Bush following Iraq invasion
Israel and Russia have faith in Trump – not so European allies

More than three-quarters of the world has little or no confidence in Donald Trump’s global leadership and his signature policies, with support for the American presidency collapsing fastest among America’s traditional allies in Europe, according to new polling by the Pew Research Center.

In many countries, support for the US president is now below that of George Bush in 2004, following the Iraq invasion. Globally, two-thirds of respondents describe Trump as “arrogant and dangerous”.

The research conducted across 37 countries shows a median of 22% have some or a great deal of confidence in Trump to do the right thing when it comes to international affairs. Almost three-quarters (74%) have little to no confidence in the Republican leader.

By contrast, in the final years of Barack Obama’s presidency, a median of 64% expressed confidence in Trump’s predecessor to direct America’s role in the world. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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How Fake News Wins

Posted by hkarner - 9. März 2017

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Vertrauen in Banken lässt zu wünschen übrig

Posted by hkarner - 18. Oktober 2016

17. Oktober 2016, 13:49 derstandard.at

 Laut einer Umfrage des Beratungsunternehmens EY vertrauen der eigenen Hausbank weltweit nur noch 40 Prozent

Wien – Neun Jahre nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise lässt das Vertrauen in Banken immer noch zusehends zu wünschen übrig. Nur 40 Prozent der Kunden weltweit vertrauen der eigenen Hausbank – vor einem Jahr waren es noch 44 Prozent. Das geht aus einer internationalen Umfrage des Beratungsunternehmens EY (vormals Ernst & Young) unter 52.000 Bankkunden hervor. Nicht einmal jeder Zweite (48 Prozent) ist davon überzeugt, dass sein Geld beim eigenen Finanzinstitut sicher ist. Lediglich 43 Prozent vertrauen darauf, dass die Hausbank ihre persönlichen und finanziellen Daten schützt. Und nur noch 27 Prozent halten die Beratungsleistungen ihrer Bank für zuverlässig. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Don’t We Trust Our Leaders?

Posted by hkarner - 4. August 2016

Photo of Ngaire Woods

Ngaire Woods

Ngaire Woods is Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government and Director of the Global Economic Governance Program at the University of Oxford.

AUG 3, 2016, Project Syndicate

OXFORD – In developed democracies today, political leadership is increasingly up for grabs. Voters, clearly tired of the status quo, want change at the top, leaving even major parties’ establishments struggling to install leaders of their choosing.

In the United Kingdom, Labour Party MPs have been stymied in their efforts to unseat Jeremy Corbyn as leader. In Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s preferred candidate for Governor of Tokyo, Hiroya Masuda, lost in a landslide to Yuriko Koike. As for the United States, the Republican Party wanted virtually anybody except Donald Trump to win the nomination for the presidency; yet Trump it is. And while the Democratic Party is being represented by the establishment choice, Hillary Clinton, her competitor, Bernie Sanders, put up a much stronger fight than virtually anyone anticipated. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Democracy Requires Trusted Experts

Posted by hkarner - 2. August 2016

Photo of Jean Pisani-Ferry

Jean Pisani-Ferry

Jean Pisani-Ferry is a professor at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, and currently serves as Commissioner-General of France Stratégie, a policy advisory institution in Paris.

AUG 1, 2016, Project Syndicate

PARIS – Last month, I wrote a commentary asking why voters in the United Kingdom supported leaving the European Union, defying the overwhelming weight of expert opinion warning of the major economic costs of Brexit. I observed that many voters in the UK and elsewhere are angry at economic experts. They say that the experts failed to foresee the financial crisis of 2008, put efficiency first in their policy advice, and blindly assumed that the losers from their policy prescriptions could be compensated in some unspecified way. I argued that experts should be humbler and more attentive to distributional issues.

The piece elicited far more comments from readers than any of my others. Their reactions mostly confirm the anger I had noted. They regard economists and other experts as isolated from and indifferent to the concerns of ordinary people; driven by an agenda that does not coincide with that of citizens; often blatantly wrong, and therefore incompetent; biased in favor of, or simply captured by, big business and the financial industry; and naive – failing to see that politicians select analyses that suit their ends and disregard the rest. Experts, said some, are also guilty of fracturing society by segmenting the debate into myriad narrow, specialized discussions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Reinventing Europe

Posted by hkarner - 4. Mai 2016

Photo of Joschka Fischer

Joschka Fischer

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany’s strong support for NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.

MAY 3, 2016, Project Syndicate

BERLIN – Since 2009, when the financial crisis that started in America in 2008 shook the eurozone to its core, crisis management has become Europe’s new normal. Indeed, crisis has followed crisis in Europe, and this is unlikely to change anytime soon.

Europe has had a financial crisis, a Greek crisis, a Ukraine crisis, and, since the late summer of 2015, a refugee crisis. And now, with the UK, one of the European Union’s strongest member states economically and militarily, holding a referendum on June 23 on whether to leave the EU (so-called Brexit), Europe could soon be facing a secession crisis.

Indeed, a massive crisis of trust vis-à-vis Europe and its institutions has developed in most EU member states, fueling a revival of nationalist political parties and ideas and a slackening of European solidarity. The re-nationalization of Europe is accelerating, making this crisis the most dangerous of all, as it threatens disintegration from within. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Do not blame Angela Merkel for the refugees

Posted by hkarner - 1. Oktober 2015

Date: 01-10-2015
Source: The Financial Times

Nationalist rhetoric cannot deliver national solutions — co-operation is what the EU is for

It is all the fault of Angela Merkel. Had the German chancellor not held out a hand of welcome, the refugee tide would have turned. Syrians would have stopped in their tracks on the road from Damascus. Iraqis, Afghans, Eritreans and the rest would have straightened their shoulders and faced up with equanimity to penury and death at home. Obvious, really.

Europe’s response to the refugee crisis has been displacement activity — an unedifying game of hide and seek with, save for one or two, politicians doing most of the hiding. The hundreds of thousands of Syrians fleeing barrel bombs and beheading did not need Ms Merkel’s permission to climb into boats promising a new life. Nor will they be deterred on their long march by the razor wire fences in one, nasty corner of the continent.

The forces driving the biggest movement of people Europe has seen since the 1940s are heedless also of the recriminations ricocheting between European capitals. The bitter argument about how to “share out” 120,000 asylum seekers seems almost perverse when there are a million following close behind. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Inexorable Logic of the Sharing Economy

Posted by hkarner - 29. September 2015

Date: 28-09-2015Spence CC
Source: Project Syndicate

MICHAEL SPENCE

Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, Academic Board Chairman of the Fung Global Institute in Hong Kong, and Chair of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on New Growth Models. He was the chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-2010 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence – The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World.

MILAN – When Amazon was founded in 1994, and eBay the following year, they harnessed the connectivity of the Internet to create new, more efficient markets. In the beginning, that meant new ways of buying and selling books and collectibles; but now e-commerce is everywhere, offering customers new goods and used goods – and becoming a global force in logistics and retail. Likewise, while today’s sharing-economy companies may be just out of their infancy, their services will one day be ubiquitous.

By now, most people have heard of Airbnb, the online apartment-rental service. The company has just 600 employees but a million properties listed for rent, making it larger than the world’s biggest hotel chains. Of course, what Airbnb offers is different from what hotels provide; but if Airbnb offered options for, say, maid service or food, they could become closer competitors than one might initially imagine. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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