Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Trade’

EU Plans to Pitch Trade Bargain to Trump

Posted by hkarner - 20. April 2018

Date: 19-04-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Deal would feature lower tariffs on U.S. cars, access to government bidding for Europe, and joint action on China

European officials want a permanent exemption from new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

The European Union is drawing up a peace offer it hopes will end trade hostilities with the White House and avoid steel and aluminum tariffs being imposed on the bloc in two weeks’ time, according to European officials.

Its centerpiece: A miniature, simplified version of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership—the controversial EU-U.S. trade agreement that was negotiated but never concluded under the Obama administration.

To complete the offer, the EU is considering joining forces with the U.S. in tackling what both see as China’s unfair trade practices, the officials said. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »


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The Global Trade Game

Posted by hkarner - 9. April 2018

Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz, the corporate parent of PIMCO where he served as CEO and co-Chief Investment Officer, was Chairman of US President Barack Obama’s Global Development Council. He previously served as CEO of the Harvard Management Company and Deputy Director at the International Monetary Fund. He was named one of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He is the author, most recently, of The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse.

History is less likely than game theory to provide useful insights into where the latest trade dispute between the US and China may be heading. The question, ultimately, is whether new tariffs will eventually lead to a more cooperative game, or to a competitive one in which everyone loses.

CAMBRIDGE – The trade confrontation between the United States and China is heating up. After firing an opening salvo of steep tariffs on steel and aluminum, the US administration has released a plan for a 25% tariff on 1,333 Chinese imports – worth about $50 billion last year – to punish China for what it views as decades of intellectual property theft. China has fired back with a plan to slap 25% levies on a range of US goods, also worth about $50 billion. In response to what he labels “unfair retaliation,” US President Donald Trump is now said to be considering yet another set of tariffs, covering another $100 billion worth of imports from China. Economists and market analysts are scrambling to figure out what will come next. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Trade Confusion

Posted by hkarner - 9. April 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

US President Donald Trump’s recently announced import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and $60 billion in other goods that the US imports from China each year are in keeping with his record of responding to nonexistent problems. Unfortunately, while Trump captures the world’s attention, serious real problems go unaddressed.

NEW YORK – The trade skirmish between the United States and China on steel, aluminum, and other goods is a product of US President Donald Trump’s scorn for multilateral trade arrangements and the World Trade Organization, an institution that was created to adjudicate trade disputes.

Before announcing import tariffs on more than 1,300 types of Chinese-made goods worth around $60 billion per year, in early March Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum, which he justified on the basis of national security. Trump insists that a tariff on a small fraction of imported steel – the price of which is set globally – will suffice to address a genuine strategic threat. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Handel ist für Briten größte Klippe bei EU-Ausstieg

Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2018

Die britische Premierministerin Theresa May fordert einen maßgeschneiderten Handels-Deal mit der EU, wie ihn die Welt noch nicht gesehen hat. Doch die EU-Staatenlenker wollen von „Rosinenpicken“ nichts wissen.

Ein Jahr vor dem offiziellen Ausstieg Großbritanniens aus der Europäischen Union (EU) wissen Politiker auf beiden Seiten des Ärmelkanals immer noch nicht, was die Zukunft bringt. Denn trotz zahlreicher Verhandlungsmarathons und einer de-facto-Verlängerung der EU-Mitgliedschaft für die Briten steht den Unterhändlern die größte Hürde noch bevor. Sie müssen einen Handelsvertrag unter Dach und Fach bekommen und insgesamt in Vertragstexte gießen, wie man nach dem Goodbye der Briten zu Europa zusammenleben will.

Und da haben beide Seiten konträre Vorstellungen: Die britische Premierministerin Theresa May fordert einen maßgeschneiderten Handels-Deal, wie ihn die Welt noch nicht gesehen hat. Die Kommission hingegen, die die Verhandlungen für die gesamte EU führt, stellt May lediglich Handelsverträge in Aussicht, wie man sie mit Drittstaaten wie Kanada abgeschlossen hat. Da wäre aber die auf der Insel starke Dienstleistungsbranche weitgehend ausgeklammert.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Trade Warrior

Posted by hkarner - 14. März 2018

Date: 12-03-2018

Donald Trump’s Attack on German Prosperity

U.S. President Donald Trump seems intent on launching a trade war. He is ignoring appeals to common sense coming from Europe and Asia, but one country stands to lose more than any other: Germany.

Starting last Thursday, automobile manufacturers once again began presenting their newest attractions. But this year, the executives are having a more difficult time than usual in exuding confidence. It’s not that their bottom lines are in bad shape; on the contrary. It’s not that they are weighed down by the ongoing diesel scandal; they’ve more or less become used to that. Rather, their collective mood was crushed by just a few words pecked out on the screen of the mobile phone of the most powerful man in the world.

On March 3, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Twitter that he would be slapping a punitive tariff on automobiles „which freely pour into the U.S.,“ as he complained. Prior to that, Trump had announced that he intended to introduce a 25-percent import tariff on steel and 10 percent on aluminum — and signed the corresponding executive order last Thursday. It was a move that threw a significant share of the automobile and metal industries into turmoil.

If Trump also fulfills his threat against foreign carmakers, it would be a painful blow to German producers, particularly Porsche. The VW subsidiary is heavily dependent on sales in the United States, with every fourth vehicle sold in America. Were tariffs introduced, Porsche would likely be forced to raise its prices and risk taking a hit on sales. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Trade Gimmickry

Posted by hkarner - 12. März 2018

Date: 11-03-2018
Source: Project Syndicate by Dani Rodrik

Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy, Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science, and, most recently, Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy.

The imbalances and inequities generated by the global economy cannot be tackled by protecting a few politically well-connected industries, using manifestly ridiculous national security considerations as an excuse. Such protectionism is a gimmick, not a serious agenda for trade reform.

CAMBRIDGE – US President Donald Trump’s bark on trade policy has so far been far worse than his bite. But this may be changing. In January, he raised tariffs on imported washing machines and solar cells. Now, he has ordered steep tariffs on imported steel and aluminum (25% and 10%, respectively), basing the move on a rarely used national-security exception to World Trade Organization rules.

Many commentators have overreacted to the possibility of tariffs, predicting a “trade war” and worse. One expert called the steel and aluminum tariffs the most significant trade restrictions since 1971, when President Richard M. Nixon imposed a 10% import surcharge in response to the US trade deficit, and predicted that, “It will have huge consequences for the global trading order.” The Wall Street Journal wrote that Trump’s tariffs were the “biggest policy blunder of his Presidency” – a remarkable claim in light of the administration’s missteps over Russia, the FBI, North Korea, immigration, taxation, white nationalism, and much else. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The threat to world trade: The rules-based system is in grave danger

Posted by hkarner - 9. März 2018

Date: 08-03-2018
Source: The Economist

Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium would be just the start

DONALD TRUMP is hardly the first American president to slap unilateral tariffs on imports. Every inhabitant of the Oval Office since Jimmy Carter has imposed some kind of protectionist curbs on trade, often on steel. Nor will Mr Trump’s vow to put 25% tariffs on steel and 10% on aluminium by themselves wreck the economy: they account for 2% of last year’s $2.4trn of goods imports, or 0.2% of GDP. If this were the extent of Mr Trump’s protectionism, it would simply be an act of senseless self-harm. In fact, it is a potential disaster—both for America and for the world economy.

As yet it is unclear exactly what Mr Trump will do. But the omens are bad. Unlike his predecessors, Mr Trump is a long-standing sceptic of free trade. He has sneered at the multilateral trading system, which he sees as a bad deal for America. His administration is chaotic, and Gary Cohn’s ominous decision on March 6th to resign as the president’s chief economic adviser deprives the White House of a rare free-trader, signalling that it has fallen into protectionist hands. Not since its inception at the end of the second world war has the global trading system faced such danger.

This danger has several dimensions. One is the risk of tit-for-tat escalation. After the EU said it would retaliate with sanctions on American goods, including bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorbikes, Mr Trump threatened exports of European cars. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ein Handelskrieg für Pittsburgh

Posted by hkarner - 8. März 2018

Warum Präsident Donald Trump auf einmal so schnell Strafzölle durchpeitschen will, hat vor allem einen Grund: die Nachwahl in der Stahlstadt Pittsburgh.

Washington. Donald Trump spielt seine Lieblingsrolle: Der US-Präsident gibt den gewieften Manager, der seine Ziele mit einer Mischung aus Drohungen, Bluff und Zugeständnissen erreicht. Kurz vor der geplanten Verkündung der angedrohten Strafzölle der USA auf Einfuhren von Stahl und Aluminium am Donnerstag liefen in Washington die Telefondrähte heiß. Mehr als hundert Politiker aus Trumps republikanischer Partei forderten, die Strafmaßnahmen müssten so zugeschnitten werden, dass ein großflächiger Handelskrieg vermieden werde. Der Präsident gestand bereits Ausnahmen für Kanada, den Hauptlieferanten der amerikanischen Stahl- und Aluminiumindustrie, sowie Mexiko zu. Das Feilschen wird vermutlich noch wochenlang weitergehen.

Lockangebote für „wahre Freunde“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Is the US Ready for a Trade War?

Posted by hkarner - 8. März 2018

Date: 07-03-2018
Source: YaleGlobal

Donald Trump won the US presidency by promising trade battles to restore manufacturing jobs that have also been decimated by automation. After announcing plans to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, he maintained that “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” Scott Kennedy, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, agrees that China distorts the global economy with discriminatory policies, seeking to dominate key industries through subsidies and over-production. Yet he also maintains that the United States is woefully unprepared for a potential trade war in five ways: by expecting China to fold quickly, not knowing what it wants, not preparing US citizens for higher prices and other sacrifices, not coordinating allies and even aggravating them, and not preparing for details that include possible court challenges. Trump’s threat to impose tariffs presents many unknowns and may yet prove to be bluster. If he proceeds, he will alienate many of his supporters while confronting a formidable opponent in a united China. – YaleGlobal

Triggering trade wars may seem easy for world’s largest economy, but the US is not ready for retaliation Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Border Controls on Trade Will Rise Again in Europe

Posted by hkarner - 11. Februar 2018

Date: 10-02-2018
Source: The Wall Street Journal By Stephen Fidler

U.K.’s decision to steer clear of any customs union means new red tape for British exporters

The leading voice of British business argued this week for staying in a customs union with the European Union, saying it was “part of the answer to the tough questions facing the government” over trade.

As the Confederation of British Industry was setting out its case, the government made clear it has other ideas. Britain, it said, wouldn’t be a part of any customs union after the post-Brexit transition period it hopes to secure ends in about three years.

As a result, for the first time in decades, the 180,000 British companies that export to the EU will face bureaucracy at the border. Even if Britain cuts a trade agreement with the EU after Brexit that keeps goods tariffs at zero, administrative costs for exporters to the EU will soar. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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