Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Trade’

The Year in Review: Global Economy in 5 Charts

Posted by hkarner - 19. Dezember 2017

By Oya Celasun, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Blog

December 18, 2017

On the economic front, 2017 is ending on a high note (photo: allstars/shutterstock)

It has been a tumultuous year marked by natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, and deep political divisions in many countries.

On the economic front, however, 2017 is ending on a high note, with GDP continuing to accelerate over much of the world in the broadest cyclical upswing since the start of the decade.

Here are five charts that help tell the economic story of the past year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

Posted by hkarner - 7. Dezember 2017

Daniel Gros is Director of the Brussels-based Center for European Policy Studies. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, and served as an economic adviser to the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the French prime minister and finance minister. He is the editor of Economie Internationale and International Finance.

The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

BRUSSELS – Free trade seems to have few supporters these days. Though actual trade volumes are recovering from the post-crisis recession and drop in commodity prices, “globalization” has become increasingly contentious, as exemplified by the election of US President Donald Trump on the back of a promise to rip up international agreements and get tough on trade partners. What does this mean for the future of the rules-based trading system?

Some 60 years ago, when the current rules-based global trading system was conceived, the United States was the world’s sole economic “hyperpower,” possessing unquestioned dominance in the day’s most advanced manufacturing industries. With enough power to impose rules, and enough dominance to be able to count on accruing the largest share of the benefits, it could – and did – perform the role of “benevolent hegemon.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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US-China Trade at Global Crossroads

Posted by hkarner - 13. November 2017

 

By Dan Steinbock, RGE Economonitor, 11/11/2017

Despite “America First” policies, President Trump’s economic agenda needs expanding trade with China.

President Donald Trump began his grueling 12-day Asia tour amid US Special Counsel’s first indictments, which cast a shadow over the White House’s future.

Nevertheless, Trump and President Xi Jinping were able to sign deals worth US$253 billion, which makes the visit to China historic in terms of the value of business agreements struck.

If anything, the visit demonstrates that, despite an insular foreign policy, Trump’s economic objectives cannot be executed without expanding trade with China.

Rapid trade expansion

In 2016, US-China trade amounted to $579 billion, while Trump’s singular focus is on the $368 billion trade deficit. Yet, merchandise trade is only one aspect of the broad bilateral economic relationship. Today, China is US’s second-largest merchandise trading partner, third-largest export market, and biggest source of imports.

The increase of imports from China in the US and the bilateral trade imbalance is largely the result of the shift of production facilities from other, mainly Asian countries to China. Since 1990, the share of US imports from China has soared sevenfold to 26 percent. Today, China is the center for global supply chains, which has greatly lowered US multinationals’ costs and thus prices for US consumers. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Britain and America suffer from similar delusions on trade

Posted by hkarner - 28. Juli 2017

Date: 27-07-2017
Source: The Economist

A special relationship with reality

NO TWO countries are doing more to strain the fabric of modern trade than America and Britain. President Donald Trump wants to rewrite the terms of America’s trade relationships with everyone from Mexico to South Korea. After its vote to leave the European Union, Britain faces having to negotiate fresh trade deals with both the EU and countries beyond.

The pair’s tone on trade is different: one wants to put “America First”, the other to create a “global Britain”. But both visions are predicated on the idea of striking swift, bilateral deals, and each has identified the other as the perfect partner. At a meeting of G20 leaders this month, Mr Trump spoke of a “powerful deal, great for both countries”, which would be done “very, very quickly”. On July 24th Liam Fox, Britain’s international trade secretary, met his American counterparts to start talks about a post-Brexit agreement. A day later the president tweeted his excitement: “Working on major Trade Deal with the United Kingdom. Could be very big & exciting. JOBS!”

An agreement between Britain and America would be a good thing in principle. Tariffs are already pretty low, although Mr Trump may have his eye on a 10% tariff on cars imported from America. But differences in rules and standards impede the flow of goods and services, worth $227bn in 2016, between the two countries. In practice, however, Mr Trump and, especially, the Brexiteers suffer from several profound delusions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Der Schiedsrichter flieht vor dem Handelskrieg

Posted by hkarner - 9. Juli 2017

Die WTO macht den Weg frei für Trumps „Schutzzölle“ und beraubt sich so ihrer letzten Daseinsberechtigung.

Traut er sich? Oder traut er sich nicht? Führt Donald Trump wie angedroht Strafzölle auf Stahlimporte ein und zettelt so einen Handelskrieg mit EU und China an? Brüssel und Peking haben ihre Bedenken jedenfalls vorsorglich bei der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) deponiert, die in solchen Fällen üblicherweise als Schiedsrichter fungiert. Doch diesmal scheint alles anders: „Die WTO ist nicht das richtige Forum für diesen Disput“, gab WTO-Chef Roberto Azevêdo beim G20-Gipfel zu Protokoll.

Interessant. Die WTO hat also offenbar keine Lust mehr, den Schiedsrichter zu spielen – und droht so ihre letzte Daseinsberechtigung zu verlieren. Viel mehr als zwei Aufgaben hat die 20 Jahre alte Organisation nämlich nicht: multilaterale Freihandelsverträge aushandeln und internationale Handelskonflikte beilegen. Punkt eins verfehlt die WTO seit Jahren grandios. 15 Jahre Doha-Runde brachten selbst bei freundlichster Betrachtung nur einen Minimalkompromiss. Die Beilegung von Konflikten funktionierte hingegen bisher gut. Warum nimmt sich die WTO da freiwillig aus dem Spiel?

Ihm seien die Hände gebunden, argumentiert Azevêdo sinngemäß. Artikel 21 der WTO-Regeln besagt, dass Staaten, die ihre protektionistischen Maßnahmen mit nationaler Sicherheit erklären, sich nicht weiter rechtfertigen müssten. Genau das versuchen jetzt die USA. Als Grund für die geplanten Zölle dienen nicht mehr angebliche Dumpingpreise der Ausländer. Stattdessen gibt Trump vor, die US-Stahlindustrie schützen zu müssen, um die Versorgung im Kriegsfall zu sichern. Tatsächlich landen allerdings nur drei Prozent der Stahlimporte bei Rüstungskonzernen. Dass die WTO der kruden Argumentation folgt, ist auch mit ihrer eigenen Schwäche zu erklären. Die USA drohten der Organisation bereits offen, ihren Schiedsspruch ohnedies ignorieren zu wollen. Dieser Schmach kommt Azevêdo mit seiner Verneigung nun zuvor. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ifo-Chef Fuest: „Größten Verlierer im Handelskrieg wären USA“

Posted by hkarner - 7. Juli 2017

Fuest rechnet mit keinem Handelskrieg, auch nicht damit, dass die US-Regierung flächendeckend Strafzölle auf Produkte aus dem Ausland erheben wird.

Ifo-Chef Clemens Fuest erwartet trotz Drohungen der Trump-Regierung keine umfassende Abschottung des US-Marktes. „Ein Handelskrieg wird nicht kommen. Der internationale Handel würde stark zurückgehen, aber der größte Verlierer wären die USA selbst“, sagte der Präsident des Münchner ifo-Instituts am Donnerstagabend vor Journalisten in Frankfurt.

„Wenn die Administration sich einigermaßen rational verhält, wird sie erkennen, dass das unattraktiv ist für die USA“, sagte der Ökonom.

Fuest rechnet daher nicht damit, dass die US-Regierung flächendeckend Strafzölle auf Produkte aus dem Ausland erheben wird. In einzelnen Branchen sei das aber durchaus vorstellbar. US-Präsident Donald Trump hat sich eine Abschottungspolitik („America first!“) auf die Fahnen geschrieben.

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The End of the Trump Administration?

Posted by hkarner - 16. Juni 2017

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How Trade with China Boosts Productivity

Posted by hkarner - 26. Mai 2017

By JaeBin Ahn and Romain Duval, IMF Blog

May 24, 2017

Container port, China. Trade with China has helped improve living standards in advanced economies through higher productivity 

Advocates of protectionist policies in advanced economies blame job losses on growing trade with China, and influential researchers have provided some empirical backing for their claims. Yet the benefits of trade with China are often overlooked. Among them is faster growth in productivity—the key driver of improved living standards. This suggests that rather than erecting new barriers to trade, advanced economies should continue to open up—while doing much more to help those who have lost their jobs to overseas competition.

Our new research shows that for advanced economies:

  • Productivity growth has been faster in countries and industries that have been more exposed to China’s opening to trade, all else equal; and
  • As much as 12 percent of the increase in productivity over the 12 years from 1995 through 2007 can be attributed to China’s integration into world trade. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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