Posts Tagged ‘Trade’
Posted by hkarner - 22. März 2017
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Countries export more to big economies than they do to small ones—a pattern May and Trump should keep in mind
To boost trade after Brexit, the U.K. will have to grapple with a powerful force: gravity.
Economists have for decades observed that the volume of trade between economies is tightly linked to their size and proximity. Countries export more to big economies than they do to small ones, and they trade more with neighbors than with markets further away.
For the economists who first discerned them, these patterns recalled the effect of gravity on celestial bodies in classical physics, where the force exerted by one object on another is determined by mass and distance. This phenomenon helps explain why the U.S.’s biggest trading partners are China and Canada and why the U.K. exports more to Ireland in a year than it does to India or Brazil. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Europe, Gravity, Trade, UK, WSJ | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 19. März 2017
18. März 2017, 18:57 derstandard.at
G20-Länder nach US-Blockade nur mit Minimal-Konsens zum Handel – IWF-Chefin warnt davor, die Erholung der Weltwirtschaft auszubremsen
Baden-Baden – In der G20-Gruppe der führenden Industrie- und Schwellenländer ist der Handelskonflikt mit den USA offen ausgebrochen. Die neue Regierung in Washington verhinderte nach heftigem Widerstand ein gemeinsames Bekenntnis zu freiem Handel und gegen Marktabschottung. Die Finanzminister und Notenbankchefs verständigten sich am Samstag nach zweitägigem Ringen in Baden-Baden nur auf einen Minimalkonsens. In der Abschlusserklärung heißt es knapp: „Wir arbeiten daran, den Beitrag des Handels für unsere Volkswirtschaften zu stärken.“ Damit konnte Gastgeber Deutschland trotz teils nächtelanger Kompromisssuche nur eine Einigung auf den kleinsten gemeinsamen Nenner erreichen. Themen wie Prinzipien für robustere Volkswirtschaften oder Investitionspartnerschäften für Afrika gerieten in den Hintergrund. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: G20, IMF, Standard, Trade, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 17. März 2017
Oonagh Fitzgerald, Director of the International Law Research Program at the Center for International Governance Innovation, is a former security coordinator for Canada’s Department of Justice, and a former legal adviser to Canada’s Department of National Defense.
Hector R. Torres
Hector R. Torres is a former executive director of the IMF and a former WTO staff member.
MAR 16, 2017 Project Syndicate
ONTARIO – Donald Trump’s presidency is posing fundamental challenges to the rule-based international trading system that has buttressed global growth for decades. But while America’s protectionist maneuverings threaten a global trading regime based on legal norms, they may also, paradoxically, help to reform it.
That is because middle powers – countries with modest GDPs but global influence – have an opportunity to moderate and reorient Trump’s anti-trade firestorm. Through enhanced cooperation, the world’s middle powers can avoid becoming collateral damage in Trump’s anti-globalization offensive. And they can help to maintain the stabilizing project of international cooperation by advancing a progressive trade agenda based on the rule of law.
Trump’s rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) by executive order, his promise to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and his claim that the World Trade Organization (WTO) is “a disaster,” all foreshadow likely trade tensions. In more ways than one, these could trigger trade conflicts that middle powers would wish to avoid and deescalate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brexit, Fitzgerald, Middle Powers, Project Syndicate, Torres, TPP, Trade, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 4. März 2017
Joakim Reiter is former Deputy Secretary General of UNCTAD and a former senior trade official and ambassador to the WTO for Sweden.
Guillermo Valles is Director for Trade at UNCTAD and a former vice minister and ambassador to the WTO for Uruguay.
MAR 3, 2017 Project Syndicate
GENEVA – While US President Donald Trump has promised an “America first” approach to economic policy, it is simplistic – even misleading – to describe that approach as merely protectionist. Rather, Trump’s modus operandi is revanchism. As he put it in his Inaugural Address: “We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs.”
Trump believes that the global economy is rigged against America, and he wants to change the rules fundamentally. But what revanchism will look like in practice is an open question. During the campaign, Trump said that he would be prepared to impose significant and comprehensive tariffs on imported goods. Frankly, however, this is unlikely to happen. Terminating existing trade agreements, or disregarding the global trade rules that prevent the US from unilaterally raising tariffs, would invite a trade war, which would have immediate and harsh economic consequences. It is hard to believe that the US Congress would allow this. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Reiter, Revanchism, Trade, Trump, Valles | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 14. Februar 2017
Kaushik Basu, a former chief economist of the World Bank, is Professor of Economics at Cornell University.
FEB 13, 2017 Project Syndicate
NEW YORK – US President Donald Trump is about to make a policy mistake. It will hurt – particularly in the short run – countries across Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia, especially emerging economies like China and Sri Lanka (which run large trade surpluses vis-à-vis the United States) and India and the Philippines (major outsourcing destinations). But none will suffer more than the US itself.
The policy in question is a strange neoliberal protectionism – call it “neo-protectionism.” It is, on the one hand, an attempt to “save” domestic jobs by slapping tariffs on foreign goods, influencing exchange rates, restricting inflows of foreign workers, and creating disincentives for outsourcing. On the other hand, it involves neoliberal financial deregulation. This is not the way to help the US working class today. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Basu, Deregulation, emerging economies, Project Syndicate, Protectionism, Trade, Trump, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 10. Februar 2017
Laura Tyson, a former chair of the US President’s Council of Economic Advisers, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, a senior adviser at the Rock Creek Group, and a member of the World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on Gender Parity.
Susan Lund is a partner with the McKinsey Global Institute.
FEB 8, 2017 Project Syndicate
BERKELEY – Around the world, countries are rethinking the terms of engagement in global trade. This is not all bad; in fact, acknowledgement of globalization’s disruptive effects on millions of advanced-economy workers is long overdue. But new trade policies must be based on a clear-eyed understanding of how globalization is evolving, not on a backward-looking vision based on the last 30 years.
Globalization has done the world a lot of good. Research from the McKinsey Global Institute shows that, thanks to global flows of goods, services, finance, data, and people, world GDP is more than 10% higher – some $7.8 trillion in 2014 alone – than it would have been had economies remained closed.
More interconnected countries capture the largest share of this added value. For example, the United States, which ranks third among 195 countries on MGI’s Connectedness Index, has done rather well. Emerging-market economies have also reaped major gains, using export-oriented industrialization as a springboard for rapid growth. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Globalization, Lund, MGI, Project Syndicate, Technology, Trade, Tyson, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 3. Februar 2017
J. Bradford DeLong
J. Bradford DeLong is Professor of Economics at the University of California at Berkeley and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. He was Deputy Assistant US Treasury Secretary during the Clinton Administration, where he was heavily involved in budget and trade negotiations. His role in designing the bailout of Mexico during the 1994 peso crisis placed him at the forefront of Latin America’s transformation into a region of open economies, and cemented his stature as a leading voice in economic-policy debates.
FEB 2, 2017 Project Syndicate
BERKELEY – In a recent Vox essay outlining my thinking about US President Donald Trump’s emerging trade policy, I pointed out that a “bad” trade deal such as the North American Free Trade Agreement is responsible for only a vanishingly small fraction of lost US manufacturing jobs over the past 30 years. Just 0.1 percentage points of the 21.4 percentage-point decline in the employment share of manufacturing during this period is attributable to NAFTA, which was enacted in December 1993.
A half-century ago, the US economy supplied an abundance of manufacturing jobs to a workforce that was well equipped to fill them. Today, many of those opportunities have dried up. This is undoubtedly a significant problem; but anyone who claims that the collapse of US manufacturing employment resulted from “bad” trade deals is playing the fool. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: DeLong, NAFTA, Project Syndicate, Trade, Trump, Unemployment, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 21. Januar 2017
Fassungslosigkeit herrscht hierzulande nach dem Trump-Interview der Bild-Zeitung. Ist man darüber erschrocken, dass der neue amerikanische Präsident versteht, was im internationalen Handel schiefläuft?
Als Donald Trump zum Präsidenten gewählt wurde, hatten wir bei Makroskop schon so eine Ahnung. Gleich zu Beginn des neuen Jahres drohte er China, Zölle von 45 Prozent auf chinesische Importe zu erheben. Da war es klar, wohin die Reise gehen sollte. Kurz nach Trumps China-Verlautbarung, am 13. Januar, schrieb Heiner Flassbeck in dem Beitrag „Trump und China – ein Vorgeschmack auf Trump und Deutschland“ wörtlich:
»Deutschland sollte sehr genau hinsehen, wie Trump sich zu China verhält, denn auch Deutschland, das G20 Land mit dem höchsten Überschuss der Exporte über die Importe (fast 9 % des BIP) hat einiges zu verlieren. Die USA sind für Deutschland der Handelspartner mit dem größten Defizit von etwa 60 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr. Das wird dem Präsidenten Trump spätestens dann auffallen, wenn sein Finanzminister den jährlichen Currency Report an den Kongress erstellt, in dem aus der Sicht der USA die größten Sünder im internationalen Handel angeprangert werden.« Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Flassbeck, Germany, Makroskop, Trade, Trump | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 30. November 2016
29 November 2016, voxeu
Trade agreements involving the US could be the first economic casualty of the 2016 election. The existing US trade agreements rose from the ashes of WWII and the Great Depression. This column argues that understanding how they protect the US economy, American workers, and consumers is critical to avoiding a repeat of the policy mistakes of earlier eras.
The recent pace of globalisation has led to disheartening job loss for some Americans, especially in certain communities that backed Mr. Trump in the election. While imports and exports indisputably contribute big gains to the US economy overall, those resulting benefits have not been adequately shared.
However, even the largest estimates find international trade has caused only a fraction of the US economic dislocation — including that likely suffered by Mr. Trump’s key voters. Recognised studies observe that the surge in imports from China is an important contributor to US unemployment, for example, but it is responsible for less than 20% of the manufacturing job loss from 1999 to 2011. The other 80% of lost jobs were caused by something else entirely.1 Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Brown, Peterson, Trade, USA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by hkarner - 18. November 2016
Source: Vice News
The US president-elect plans to increase jobs by ending trade that does not benefit the United States. That assumes the US is self-sufficient and that other countries might go along. Instead, the other countries, especially China as the world’s largest market and soon to be largest economy, will retaliate while possibly continuing trade with one another. Meanwhile, US prices will soar and quality suffer. “The era of globalization was born in the aftermath of World War II, when the United States made the decision that open trade and security guarantees with Japan and NATO would be the only way to avoid another war and counterbalance Soviet expansion,” explains Matt Phillips for Vice News. China’s entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 had consequences for the developing world along with rising inequality and automation. A first and easy step is killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but China will step into the void. Introducing barriers to established trade will take time and draw immediate response from other countries and US firms for which overseas sales generate the bulk of revenues. That includes ExxonMobil, General Electric, Apple and Boeing. – YaleGlobal
Killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership is easy; introducing barriers to established trade is tricky as bulk of revenues for US multinationals are from overseas Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »
Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: Globalization, Trade, Trump, Vice | Leave a Comment »