Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Trade war’

The Siren Song of Strategic Autonomy

Posted by hkarner - 9. November 2019

Daniel Gros is Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

A recent report by the European Commission’s in-house think tank has called for Europe to aim for more “strategic autonomy.” But what may seem like an innocuous goal could easily take an economic-nationalist turn, with serious implications for world trade and the global economy.

BRUSSELS – For over a year, US President Donald Trump’s protectionist war against China – and his broader use of import tariffs to advance geopolitical objectives – has been fueling anxiety about the future of world trade. But tariffs are only the tip of the iceberg of economic nationalism. If the world doesn’t navigate carefully, hidden hazards could sink the global trading system.

The United States has not found any followers in its aggressive use of tariffs. In developing countries, there is little pressure to implement similar measures, because so many firms manufacture globally, and even those that do not depend on global supply chains. And in developed economies, major sectors that struggled to cope with import competition in the past – such as the clothing and steel industries – have by now mostly adjusted, and no longer play an important role. This explains why US business leaders largely opposed Trump’s tariffs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Chinese Chess Game

Posted by hkarner - 3. November 2019

The same is true in business, international relations… or even a chess game. Great ideas don’t always work out as expected. Then what?

In last week’s letter, we discussed some serious flaws in the decision to bring China into the world trade system. People across the spectrum mostly see this now; although they differ on what to do about it.

When the US and ultimately the rest of the Western world began to engage China, resulting in China finally being allowed into the World Trade Organization in the early 2000s, no one really expected the outcomes we see today. There is no simple disengagement path, given the scope of economic and legal entanglements. This isn’t a “trade” we can simply walk away from. But it is also one that, if allowed to continue in its current form, could lead to a loss of personal freedom for Western civilization. It really is that much of an existential question. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Allure and Limits of Monetized Fiscal Deficits

Posted by hkarner - 30. Oktober 2019

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. When that happens, policymakers will almost certainly pursue some form of central-bank-financed stimulus, regardless of whether the situation calls for it.

NEW YORK – A cloud of gloom hovered over the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting this month. With the global economy experiencing a synchronized slowdown, any number of tail risks could bring on an outright recession. Among other things, investors and economic policymakers a renewed escalation in the Sino-American trade and technology war. A military conflict between the United States and Iran would be felt globally. The same could be true of “hard” Brexit by the United Kingdom or a collision between the IMF and Argentina’s incoming Peronist government. 

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Handelskrieg nur Auslöser: Ursache der Rezession ist verfehlte Geldpolitik der Notenbanken

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2019

Dank an J.G.

DWN, 25/10

Trumps Handelskrieg ist nur der Auslöser der sich anbahnen-den Rezession. Doch die Ursachen liegen tiefer: In der verfehlten Geldpolitik der großen Notenbanken.

Trumps Handelskrieg hat eine globale Wachstumsverlangsamung mit Rezessionsgefahr ausgelöst. Doch die Ursachen der aktuellen Wirtschaftsverlangsamung gehen tiefer. Man kann nicht alles der Trump-Administration oder – innerhalb Europas – dem Brexit anlasten. Es ist viel-mehr die gesamte Politik der letzten Dekaden, welche ein inkohärentes, un-sicheres Gebäude der Weltwirtschaft errichtet hat.

Ein wichtiger Punkt ist die schlechte Qualität des konjunkturellen Aufschwungs seit der Grossen Finanzkrise, eigentlich sogar schon seit der Jahrtausendwende. Die Durchsetzung des sogenannten Freihandels mit China (WTO-Beitritt Dezember 2011) und die Integration der osteuropäi-schen Länder in die Europäische Union waren zunächst primär eine Arbitrage-Gelegenheit vor allem für westliche Großunternehmen und Multinationale, um Löhne, Steuern, Sozialleistungen und Umweltkosten zu sparen beziehungsweise zu drücken. Der Freihandel erfolgte nur in eine Richtung: China schottete seinen Binnenmarkt weiterhin sorgsam ab, wo die Führung dies wollte: Über prohibitive Zölle, und über den Zwang zu joint ventures für ausländische, in China produzierende Unternehmen. Profitiert haben neben diesen Konzernen zum einen China und dessen Zulieferer-Staaten in Asien, zum anderen die Länder Osteuropas. In den Vereinigten Staaten und in Westeuropa ist die Industrie stark geschrumpft – Ausnahme das Auto- und Maschinenbauerland Deutschland sowie einige kleine Länder mit ähnlichen Eigenschaften. Ein wesentlicher Grund ist auch, dass in den USA und in Europa seit Jahrzehnten zu wenig, teilweise viel zu wenig, in die Infrastruktur investiert wird. Kein Wunder ist das Wirtschaftswachstum der letzten beiden Dekaden in vielen Industrieländern von einer schwachen Investitionstätigkeit begleitet, nota-bene trotz der nominell und real niedrigsten Zinsen seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Financial Markets Face Fresh Wave of Political Uncertainty: ‘There’s Literally Nowhere to Hide’

Posted by hkarner - 22. Oktober 2019

Date: 21-10-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Investors spooked by widespread turmoil are seeking havens

The U.K. Parliament’s decision to postpone a final vote on the country’s exit from the European Union marks the latest geopolitical development likely to swing financial markets, highlighting the extreme levels of uncertainty that some investors worry isn’t being properly accounted for with U.S. stocks near all-time highs.

The U.S.-China trade war, Britain leaving the EU and impeachment proceedings in the U.S. are just some of the major political obstacles facing investors. Adding to the uncertainty are the Turkish military operation in Syria, attacks on Saudi oil production and social unrest spanning from Hong Kong to Barcelona.

In response, some investors are boosting holdings of cash and other assets that tend to hold their value when markets turn rocky. Others are recommending strategies that could protect against a swift downturn. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Why Markets Are Rising Despite a Trade War, Brexit and Impeachment Threats

Posted by hkarner - 20. Oktober 2019

Date: 19-10-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Many investors are watching the Fed while not trading geopolitical events

Some investors say they aren’t trading geopolitical events such as Brexit and the impeachment inquiry in the U.S.

The world seems more tumultuous than it has in years. Congress is weighing impeachment, the U.K. is on the verge of a momentous vote regarding its role in Europe, and the U.S. and China are still mired in a trade war.

Yet the S&P 500 is within about 2% of its all-time high. What’s going on with Wall Street?

For many money managers, the answer has a lot to do with the Federal Reserve. The central bank has already lowered interest rates twice this year and is widely expected to do so at least once more in 2019 to help support a slowing economy. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Unwinnable Trade War

Posted by hkarner - 11. Oktober 2019

Date: 09-10-2019
Source: Foreign Affairs By Weijian Shan

Everyone Loses in the U.S.-Chinese Clash—but Especially Americans

In late June, the leaders of China and the United States announced at the G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, that they had reached a détente in their trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that the two sides had set negotiations “back on track.” He put on hold new tariffs on Chinese goods and lifted restrictions preventing U.S. companies from selling to Huawei, the blacklisted Chinese telecommunications giant. Markets rallied, and media reports hailed the move as a “cease-fire.”

That supposed cease-fire was a false dawn, one of many that have marked the on-again, off-again diplomacy between Beijing and Washington. All wasn’t quiet on the trade front; the guns never stopped blazing. In September, after a summer of heated rhetoric, the Trump administration increased tariffs on another $125 billion worth of Chinese imports. China responded by issuing tariffs on an additional $75 billion worth of U.S. goods. The United States might institute further tariffs in December, bringing the total value of Chinese goods subject to punitive tariffs to over half a trillion dollars, covering almost all Chinese imports. China’s retaliation is expected to cover 69 percent of its imports from the United States. If all the threatened hikes are put in place, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports of Chinese goods will be about 24 percent, up from about three percent two years ago, and that on Chinese imports of U.S. goods will be at nearly 26 percent, compared with China’s average tariff rate of 6.7 percent for all other countries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Are Europe’s Economic Prospects Brighter Than They Appear? Oct 1, 2019 Anatole Kaletsky

Posted by hkarner - 2. Oktober 2019

Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics. A former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Times and the Financial Times, he is the author of Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath of Crisis, which anticipated many of the post-crisis transformations of the global economy. His 1985 book, Costs of Default, became an influential primer for Latin American and Asian governments negotiating debt defaults and restructurings with banks and the IMF.

Despite all the lurid headlines about the trade war causing a recession in the United States or some kind of collapse in China and its Asian neighbors, recent economic data reveal a very different picture: the main victim has been Europe. But, fortunately for the European economy, overdependence on foreign trade is not the whole story.

LONDON – In the year since US President Donald Trump escalated America’s trade war with China, policymakers and financial markets have been obsessed with the dangers to both countries’ economies. Yet the real threat the conflict poses to the global economy lies elsewhere. 

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The Worst China Trade Idea

Posted by hkarner - 1. Oktober 2019

Date: 30-09-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal By The Editorial Board

Banning investment would hurt the U.S. and reformers in Beijing.

A monitor displays Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York in May.

The Trump Administration is looking for ways to pressure China to change its trade practices, but how about not hurting the U.S. along the way? The latest shoot-self-in-foot moment came Friday when word leaked that the White House may restrict bilateral U.S.-China investment. Bloomberg News reported that the Administration may also block Chinese companies like Alibaba from listing on U.S. stock exchanges.

The delisting of Chinese companies is especially foolish. American financial exchanges are sources of U.S. economic strength, but they compete in a global market. Foreign firms can choose to list in London or Hong Kong or Frankfurt as easily as on the Nasdaq or the New York Stock Exchange. Banning Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges would merely hurt those American businesses and U.S. capital markets. The damage to the Chinese firms would be minor because investors would still be able to raise capital elsewhere. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The future of the global economy hinges on four games of chicken

Posted by hkarner - 26. September 2019

Date: 25-09-2019
Source: The Guardian by Nouriel Roubini

Trump’s rows with China and Iran, Brexit and Argentina’s populism put the world on a knife edge

Shipping containers from China and other Asian countries

In the classic game of chicken, two drivers race directly toward each other, and the first to swerve is the loser. If neither swerves, both will probably die. In the past, such scenarios have been studied to assess the risks posed by great-power rivalries. In the case of the Cuban missile crisis, for example, Soviet and American leaders were confronted with the choice of losing face or risking a catastrophic collision. The question, always, is whether a compromise can be found that spares both parties their lives and their credibility.

There are now several geo-economic games of chicken playing out. In each case, failure to compromise would lead to a collision, most likely followed by a global recession and financial crisis. The first and most important contest is between the US and China over trade and technology. The second is the brewing dispute between the US and Iran. In Europe, there is the escalating brinkmanship between Boris Johnson and the EU over Brexit. Finally, there is Argentina, which could end up on a collision course with the International Monetary Fund after the likely victory of the Peronist Alberto Fernández in next month’s presidential election. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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