Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Trade war’

The Art of Wait and See

Posted by hkarner - 12. Juli 2019

Keyu Jin, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, is a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader

Following yet another „truce“ between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Sino-American negotiations over trade, technology, and related issues appear to be back on. But those hoping for a respite in the escalating rivalry should not hold their breath.

BEIJING – Those now hoping for an eventual trade deal between China and the United States should not hold their breath. Contrary to what US President Donald Trump seems to think, the Chinese have not reached their wits’ end, and will not suddenly accede to his demands.

A successful negotiation usually requires that each side understand the other’s perspective. One can question the wisdom of China’s approach to the dispute thus far, but without a deeper apprehension of the country’s short- and long-term thinking, little progress will be made.Trump’s supporters insist that he should be taken seriously, not literally. Chinese leaders seem to agree. They have shrugged off the Trump administration’s excessive and unreasonable demands, but harbor little doubts about its intent: to keep China down. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Lost Spirit of the G20

Posted by hkarner - 20. Juni 2019

Javier Solana, a former EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Secretary-General of NATO, and Foreign Minister of Spain, is currently President of the ESADE Center for Global Economy and Geopolitics, Distinguished Fellow at the Brookings Institution, and a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe.

As Japan prepares to host its first G20 leaders’ summit later this month, little remains of the open and cooperative spirit that marked the first such gathering in 2008. But although the United States will most likely continue its protectionist drift, other G20 countries should use the occasion to make a clear case for free trade.

MADRID – On June 28-29, Japan will host its first G20 summit. The initial gathering of G20 leaders, back in November 2008, took place amid the turmoil that wracked global financial markets following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. It produced a clear statement: “We underscore the critical importance of rejecting protectionism and not turning inward in times of financial uncertainty.” In other words, the leaders of the world’s largest economies agreed not to repeat the policy mistakes that aggravated the Great Depression in the 1930s.

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Huawei Expects $30 Billion Revenue Hit From U.S. Clampdown

Posted by hkarner - 18. Juni 2019

Date: 17-06-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

It is the first time the Chinese tech giant has quantified the potential impact of American actions against it

Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei at a panel discussion held at the company headquarters in Shenzhen, China, June 17.

The U.S. campaign against Huawei Technologies Co. is taking a toll, with the company’s founder forecasting a hit to revenue of about $30 billion over the next two years.

Ren Zhengfei said he expects revenue of about $100 billion for Huawei in 2019, a decline from last year’s roughly $107 billion, following lower-than-expected growth in the wake of a U.S. export blacklisting and other actions against the Chinese technology giant. Mr. Ren had earlier targeted 2019 revenue to come in around $125 billion. The privately held company selectively discloses its finances, though it publishes an audited annual report.

Huawei, the world’s largest maker of networking equipment and the No. 2 maker of smartphones, is reeling following a Commerce Department entity listing last month that restricts the ability of suppliers to sell it American technology. Huawei procured $11 billion worth of U.S. technology last year out of a total procurement budget of $70 billion, according to the company.

Mr. Ren’s comments provide the first window into how the blacklisting is weighing on the company’s financial outlook. Huawei has grown sharply over the years, as it made quick inroads into networking equipment and smartphones, with revenue growing 20% to more than $100 billion last year. In the first quarter it surpassed Apple Inc. to become the second-largest maker of smartphones, behind only Samsung Electronics Co. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Foxconn Says Prepared to Move Apple Production Out of China if Necessary

Posted by hkarner - 12. Juni 2019

Date: 11-06-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Taiwan-based company tries to brush off investor worries over U.S.-China trade row

A Foxconn executive said the company’s manufacturing capacity outside of China is sufficient to meet demand in the U.S. from Apple and other customers.

HONG KONG— Foxconn Technology Group said it is ready to shift production out of China if necessary for Apple Inc., its biggest customer, as the electronics assembler tried to assuage investors’ concerns over the U.S.-China trade conflict.

In its first-ever investor meeting and conference call since going public in 1991, senior executives at Taiwan-based Foxconn sought to address investor uncertainty as it prepares for a leadership transition.

Tuesday’s events were aimed at outlining a succession plan for when Terry Gou, Foxconn’s founder, stands down as chairman to focus on his campaign for Taiwan’s presidency. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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G-20 Financial Leaders Criticize Trade Tensions for Impact on Growth

Posted by hkarner - 11. Juni 2019

Date: 10-06-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

The U.S. was at odds with most countries on how tariffs have impacted global growth and how to resolve trade conflicts

Finance ministers and central bankers fretted about trade and geopolitical tensions and agreed to stand ready with action in case those risks intensify, according to a statement released Sunday after a weekend Group of 20 meeting in Japan.

FUKUOKA, Japan—The Group of 20 major economies decried worsening trade tensions and their impact on global growth, with the U.S. and China locked in a protracted trade battle since negotiations fell apart a month ago.

Finance ministers and central bankers fretted about the trade and geopolitical tensions and agreed to stand ready with action in case those risks intensify, according to a statement released Sunday after a weekend meeting in Japan. Their statement didn’t mention the tariffs the U.S. and China have used, though the measures and their effect weighed on the officials’ closed-door discussions. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Taiwan’s computing titans are caught up in the US-China tech war

Posted by hkarner - 8. Juni 2019

Date: 07-06-2019
Source: The Economist

They would rather remain in the shadows

In the shadow of Taipei 101, the Taiwanese capital’s tallest skyscraper, 42,000 people attended Computex, one of the world’s biggest electronics trade expos, which concluded on June 1st. They bought, sold and ogled every electronic component imaginable. Neon-pulsating fans. Computer casings in every imaginable shade of beige. Infinite varieties of fibre-optic cables. And, of course, chips. If silicon had a smell, Computex would be oozing it.

The massive exhibition space is in fact a sideshow. The real action takes place high above, in the hotel suites of central Taipei. The world’s technology firms book them, then fly in for meetings with the Taiwanese companies that are the beating heart of the global electronics supply chain. Taiwan is, in effect, Computex writ large.

The largest Taiwanese tech companies are contract manufacturers, which make products for other firms rather than sell them directly to consumers. The combined sales of the 19 biggest last year totalled $394bn. They co-ordinate the fiendish logistics of getting hundreds of parts sourced from Asia and beyond to arrive in the right place at the right time, in order to keep their assembly plants, many located in China, humming. Largan, Pegatron, Quanta and tsmc are not household names. Their customers—Huawei, Apple, Amazon—are. But the global tech value chains atop which these illustrious firms sit would break without their Taiwanese links. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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New Huawei Phones Won’t Come With Facebook, Instagram or WhatsApp

Posted by hkarner - 8. Juni 2019

Date: 07-06-2019
Source: The Wall Street Journal

Facebook is the latest company to restrict access to its products following the U.S. blacklisting of the Chinese tech giant

Facebook will no longer have its apps pre-installed on Huawei smartphones.

Facebook Inc. will no longer allow its apps to come pre-installed on mobile devices made by Huawei Technologies Co. following the U.S. blacklisting of the Chinese tech giant, dealing another blow to its booming smartphone business.

Facebook, which owns popular apps including Instagram and WhatsApp, is one of many software makers whose apps come pre-installed on Huawei phones, which outsold Apple Inc.’s iPhone globally in the first quarter of this year. Huawei is now second only to Samsung Electronics Co.

Huawei will no longer be able to pre-install those apps, according to a person familiar with the matter, though those who already own Huawei phones will continue to have access to Facebook apps and updates. It isn’t clear if Huawei phone users without the apps will be able to download the apps and updates themselves. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The End of the World As We Know It

Posted by hkarner - 5. Juni 2019

Date: 04-06-2019
Source: by Joschka Fischer

Joschka Fischer was German Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor from 1998-2005, a term marked by Germany’s strong support for NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in 1999, followed by its opposition to the war in Iraq. Fischer entered electoral politics after participating in the anti-establishment protests of the 1960s and 1970s, and played a key role in founding Germany’s Green Party, which he led for almost two decades.

Last month, under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s administration, Google terminated its cooperation with Huawei, thereby depriving the Chinese smartphone maker of the license to use Google’s Android software and related services. The move marks both a new pinnacle in the Sino-American conflict and the end of US-led globalization.

BERLIN – After three decades of moving toward a single global market governed by the rules of the World Trade Organization, the international order has undergone a fundamental change. The United States and China are locked in a tariff war that at first seemed to be about the bilateral trade balance, but has turned out to be about much more. Until recently, one could find hope in the fact that, despite frequent exchanges of threats, the two countries were negotiating. Not anymore. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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China Deserves Donald Trump

Posted by hkarner - 5. Juni 2019

Date: 04-06-2019
Source: The New York Times By Thomas L. Friedman

It took a human wrecking ball to get China’s attention.

President Trump insists that his tough approach to China will benefit the United States.

A U.S. businessman friend of mine who works in China remarked to me recently that Donald Trump is not the American president America deserves, but he sure is the American president China deserves.

Trump’s instinct that America needs to rebalance its trade relationship with Beijing — before China gets too big to compromise — is correct. And it took a human wrecking ball like Trump to get China’s attention. But now that we have it, both countries need to recognize just how pivotal this moment is.

The original U.S.-China opening back in the 1970s defined our restored trade ties, which were limited. When we let China join the World Trade Organization in 2001, it propelled China into a trading powerhouse under rules that still gave China lots of concessions as a developing economy.

This new negotiation will define how the U.S. and China relate as economic peers, competing for the same 21st-century industries, at a time when our markets are totally intertwined. So this is no ordinary trade dispute. This is the big one. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Trump Trade War Recession?

Posted by hkarner - 3. Juni 2019

By John Mauldin, May 31, 2019

Hoover, Smoot & Hawley
Multiplayer Game Theory
Trade Sandpile
Victim List
Lopsided Polls
The Seven-Body Problem

Publisher’s Note: John Mauldin is recovering from a minor illness. He’ll be back next week. Meanwhile, with trade disputes still roiling markets, below is a still-timely letter he wrote last year. You should definitely read it again. Ed D’Agostino

“A conservative is someone who stands athwart history, yelling stop, at a time when no one is inclined to do so, or to have much patience with those who so urge it.”
William F. Buckley, Jr., 1955

I will never compare myself to Bill Buckley, as a writer or anything else. He was one-of-a-kind and a personal hero who I am disappointed to say I never met but who I read a lot. The response to my recent tariff comments gives me a small hint of how it must have felt to “stand athwart history” and launch the modern conservative movement.

Many of you support the tariffs. And I understand your reasons. I really do. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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