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Posts Tagged ‘Tilford’

How the Eurozone Might Split

Posted by hkarner - 13. Januar 2018

Date: 12-01-2018
Source: Foreign Affairs By Mark Blyth and Simon Tilford

Could Germany Become a Reluctant Hegemon?

In February 2016, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development opined that developed country growth prospects had “practically flat-lined” and that only a stronger “commitment to raising public investment would boost demand and help support future growth.” Fast-forward some 24 months, and despite Brexit, the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, and the rise of the populist Alternative für Deutschland in Germany, the euro seems to be a much better bet than it has been in a long time. But has the euro really weathered the crisis and come out stronger? In this article, we make two interrelated arguments about the future of the eurozone.

The first is that even if the recent economic upturn continues, the eurozone could still split in two over the medium to long term thanks to a built-in design flaw in the eurozone architecture that makes it extremely difficult for the eurozone governors to deal with persistent export and import imbalances between states. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Pain in Spain

Posted by hkarner - 28. Oktober 2015

Photo of Simon Tilford

Simon Tilford

Simon Tilford is Deputy Director at the Center for European Reform.

OCT 28, 2015, Project Syndicate

LONDON – Spain is the eurozone’s latest poster child for austerity and structural reforms. Its economy has expanded for eight consecutive quarters, steadily gaining momentum and easily outperforming the rest of the currency union. Export growth has matched that of Germany; unemployment has fallen by over a million people in two years; investment is picking up; and industrial production has jumped 5% in the last 12 months.

But Spain’s recovery is not quite what it seems, and there is scant evidence that what progress the country has made is the result of austerity and reforms.

In fact, far from adhering to the usual austerity narrative – according to which fiscal consolidation revives business confidence and thus investment and job creation – Spain’s return to growth partly reflects the easing of austerity since early 2014. The country has sensibly resisted pressure from the European Commission to take more aggressive steps to reduce its deficit, which, at 5.9% of GDP, was the European Union’s third highest last year. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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