Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Szenario’

Dreifacher Schock:S&P spielt Schreckenszenario für Märkte durch

Posted by hkarner - 24. März 2011

von Andrea Cünnen, Handelasblatt Online, 24/3

Was passiert mit den Märkten, wenn die europäische Wirtschaft zusammenbrechen und die Anleihemärkte kollabieren würden? Die Ratingagentur Standard & Poor’s hat dieses Horrorszenario durchgespielt.

Verzweifelter Händler im Oktober 2008. S&P hat analysiert, was neue Schocks an den Märkten auslösen könnte. Quelle: AP Verzweifelter Händler im Oktober 2008. S&P hat analysiert, was neue Schocks an den Märkten auslösen könnte. Quelle: AP

FrankfurtRatingagenturen gehören nicht zu den Schwarzsehern. Im Gegenteil: Die Investoren an den Märkten sehen die Lage oft viel pessimistischer als die Bonitätswächter. Das ist auch Standard & Poor’s (S&P) klar. Deshalb zeigt die Ratingagentur in einer heute erscheinenden Studie, was den Märkten im Schreckensszenario von kollabierenden Anleihemärkten und einer einbrechenden Wirtschaft in Europa drohen würde. Dabei betont sie mehrfach, dass sie nicht erwartet, dass es so kommt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Advertisements

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Debt Supercycle

Posted by hkarner - 19. Juli 2010

Samstag, 17. Juli 2010, 19:29:00 | John Mauldin

Eine außergewöhnlich reflexive Betrachtung! (hfk)

The Debt Supercycle
Somewhere Over the Rainbow
The Path to Profligacy
Things That Cannot Be
I have been writing about The End Game for some time now. And writing a book of the same title. Consequently, I have been thinking a lot about how the credit crisis evolved into the sovereign debt crisis, and how it all ends. Today we explore a few musings I have had of late, while we look at some very interesting research. What will a world look like as a variety of nations have to deal with the end of their Debt Supercycle. We’ll jump right in with no „but first’s“ this week.

Understand, I started in the newsletter business back in 1981 or so, working with Dr. Gary North (also known as „Scary Gary“). Gary is an Austrian, and although I took a lot of economics courses at Rice, I had never read anything even remotely close to the Austrian school. I caught up rather quickly, and in the mid-1980s even wrote my own gold-stock newsletter (although I must admit I know next to nothing of the current gold-stock world). I was mostly limited to books, newsletters, and journals for reading material.

Then came the mid ’90s and the internet, and the world opened up. I became incurably addicted to information and read widely and deeply. At some point the small lens of Austrian thought became difficult to continue to peer through, as I looked for perspectives on the larger world. I now worship at a number of economic altars, in the ongoing effort to understand what is happening in the real world, not just in the world of theory or the world of what we would like to be. So, with that background, let’s look at The End Game.

The Debt Supercycle Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

How Larry Kotlikoff Would Fix the Financial System

Posted by hkarner - 11. März 2010

The Boston University economist wants to take all the risk out of banking, hedge funds, and insurance companies. Some people are listening

Ein unkonventioneller, aussergewöhnlich interessanter, alternativer Ansatz.

Aus der Business Week vom 4. Februar:

Kotlikoff’s forthcoming book, Jimmy Stewart is Dead, calls for a radical—and swift—reorganization of the financial system. So rather than wait for the book’s Feb. 22 publication date, Kotlikoff is e-mailing PDF versions to dozens of economists, journalists, and policymakers. „We have miscreants running the financial system left, right, and center,“ says Kotlikoff. „Nobody is calling the [Obama] Administration to task and saying, ‚You guys are putting a Band-Aid on cancer.'“

Kotlikoff would drain the risk-taking out of commercial and investment banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies—turning them into boring, narrow intermediaries akin to mutual-fund firms. Instead of taking deposits and making loans, banks would connect borrowers and depositors with ultrasafe mutual funds created for those purposes. That would solve the problem of banks not keeping enough money in their vaults to pay depositors if they all wanted their money at once, a flaw vividly demonstrated to George Bailey, the character played by Jimmy Stewart in It’s a Wonderful Life (hence the title of Kotlikoff’s book).

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel, Books | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

The Perils of Prosperity

Posted by hkarner - 31. Januar 2010

Date: 30-01-2010

  Source: NEWSWEEK  By Robert J. Samuelson |

 It’s that it doesn’t go bust often enough. 

We need to get the story straight. Already, a crude consensus has formed over what caused the financial crisis. We were victimized by dishonest mortgage brokers, greedy bankers, and inept regulators. Easy credit from the Federal Reserve probably made matters worse. True, debate continues over details. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke recently gave a speech denying that it had loosened credit too much, though he admitted to lax bank regulation. Just recently a congressionally created commission opened hearings on the causes of the crisis. Still, the basic consensus seems well established and highly reassuring. It suggests that if we toughen regulation, suppress outrageous avarice, and improve the Fed’s policies, we can prevent anything like this from ever occurring again. 

There’s only one problem: the consensus is wrong—or at least vastly simplified

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Zukunftslabor 2 des Arbeitskreises in Salzburg – Die Ergebnisse

Posted by hkarner - 25. November 2009

453_2_FHS_Campus_UrsteinDienstag, 24. November 2009

Wir danken über 200 Gästen von Kärnten bis Stuttgart für ihre Aufmerksamkeit und Ermutigung.

Anbei die Präsentation. FBK Zukunftslabor 2 Finanzwirtschaft 3_final blog_24-11-09

Posted in Beiträge von Mitgliedern, Termine, Zukunftslabor | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

The Japanese and Argentinian Desease – and the Austrian Solution!?

Posted by hkarner - 7. November 2009

from John Mauldin’s Newsletter Nov. 7

The Ugly Unemployment Numbers

The headlines said unemployment, as measured by the „establishment survey,“ was down by 190,000; and even though that was slightly worse than forecast, market bulls were cheered by the fact that the number was not as bad as last month’s. It is an improvement that we are not falling as fast.

Well, maybe. What I did not see in many of the stories I read was that the number of unemployed actually soared by 558,000, to 15.7 million, as measured by the household survey. The establishment survey polls larger businesses; the household survey actually calls individual households.

Let’s look at the real number in the establishment survey. If you don’t seasonally adjust the number, the actual change in unemployment for October was 641,000, or about 450,000 more than the seasonally adjusted number. And the Bureau of Labor Statistics added 86,000 jobs that they simply guess were created through the so-called birth-death ratio. Interestingly, the birth-death ratio number is not seasonally adjusted, so it is just added to the unemployment number. http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

The total (U-6) employment rate is at a record high of 17.5% (this includes those who are part-time for economic reasons). There are now over 10.5 million people who have lost their jobs since the beginning of the downturn.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in weitere Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

NEW Predictions from the Nostradamus of Investing

Posted by hkarner - 7. November 2009

From: John Mauldin, November 7.

Dear Fellow Investor,

My friends at Casey Research asked me to draft a quick note to you with my thoughts on their services. I’ve worked with Casey Research for years and when I think of them, one of the first things that comes to mind are quotes like this one from May 2008:

„Reduce your standard of living now (while the situation is still under control), greatly increase your savings (in gold, which is real money) and rig for greatly changed patterns of production, consumption, employment and business for a considerable time. The hurricane that’s just starting to hit the economy will both trigger and worsen problems in other areas.“

Was it Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson who said this? Ben Bernanke? Alan Greenspan? Of course not… Rather it was my friend, and legendary contrarian investor, Doug Casey, editor of The Casey Report.

Paulson, on the other hand, said this on May 16, 2008…

„Looking forward, I expect that financial markets will be driven less by the recent turmoil and more by broader economic conditions and, specifically, by the recovery of the housing sector.“

Why are investors still listening to those who missed the entire problem (let alone re-appoint them)? And those who not only missed the problem, but mis-diagnosed the solutions?

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in weitere Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Meeting Minutes des Arbeitskreises 4. Nov. 2009

Posted by hkarner - 4. November 2009

Die Meeting Minutes des Arbeitskreises werden immer fortgeschrieben, d.h. diese Version ersetzt ältere Versionen.

Dies ist der letzte Stand unserer Arbeiten und Hintergrundinformationen. FinEco III_09-11-2009

Posted in Beiträge von Mitgliedern, Meeting Minutes | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Amerikaner stammen aus Italien, Europäer aus Japan

Posted by hkarner - 28. Oktober 2009

Na, sonst kann man ja selten einer Meinung sein mit den Schlussfolgerungen des Herrn Sinn, aber diesmal könnte er mit seiner Analyse Recht haben:
Hans-Werner Sinn 

MÜNCHEN – Das amerikanische Geschäftsmodell ist zusammengebrochen. Während der letzten Jahre haben sich die USA riesige Summen vom Rest der Welt geliehen. Allein im Jahr 2008 betrugen der Nettokapitalimport über 800 Mrd. Dollar. Das Geld wurde hauptsächlich durch den Verkauf von hypothekengesicherten Wertpapieren (ABS) und darauf aufbauenden strukturierten Wertpapieren (CDO erzielt, die Forderungen gegen Forderungen gegen amerikanische Hausbesitzer waren (genauer: nur mehrstufige Forderungen gegen die Häuser selbst, da die Besitzer durch die regressfreien Kredite vor einer Durchgriffshaftung geschützt waren). Inzwischen ist jedoch der Markt für solche Wertpapiere verschwunden. Während im Jahr 2006 der Umfang der Neuemissionen noch 1,9 Billionen Dollar betrug, dürfte das Volumen im Jahr 2009 nach den jüngsten Schätzungen des IWF nur noch 50 Milliarden Dollar betragen. Der Markt ist um 97% geschrumpft. Keine andere Zahl sagt so viel über die Katastrophe des amerikanischen Finanzsystems aus wie diese.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Posted in Artikel | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Meeting Minutes Arbeitskreis Finanzwirtschaft

Posted by hkarner - 26. Oktober 2009

Hier finden sie immer den letzten Stand (tw. „Work in Progress“) der Arbeiten des Arbeitskreises FinEco III_26-10-2009

Posted in Beiträge von Mitgliedern, Meeting Minutes | Verschlagwortet mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »