Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Nach den kristallklaren Aussagen des Föhrenbergkreises zur Finanzwirtschaft aus dem Jahr 1999 gibt es jetzt einen neuen Arbeitskreis zum Thema.

Mit ‘Sweden’ getaggte Beiträge

Sweden Turns Japanese

Geschrieben von hkarner - 22. April 2014

Date: 21-04-2014KRUGMAN4
Source: Paul Krugman

Three years ago Sweden was widely regarded as a role model in how to deal with a global crisis. The nation’s exports were hit hard by slumping world trade but snapped back; its well-regulated banks rode out the financial storm; its strong social insurance programs supported consumer demand; and unlike much of Europe, it still had its own currency, giving it much-needed flexibility. By mid-2010 output was surging, and unemployment was falling fast. Sweden, declared The Washington Post, was “the rock star of the recovery.”

Then the sadomonetarists moved in.

The story so far: In 2010 Sweden’s economy was doing much better than those of most other advanced countries. But unemployment was still high, and inflation was low. Nonetheless, the Riksbank — Sweden’s equivalent of the Federal Reserve — decided to start raising interest rates.

There was some dissent within the Riksbank over this decision. Lars Svensson, a deputy governor at the time — and a former Princeton colleague of mine — vociferously opposed the rate hikes. Mr. Svensson, one of the world’s leading experts on Japanese-style deflationary traps, warned that raising interest rates in a still-depressed economy put Sweden at risk of a similar outcome. But he found himself isolated, and left the Riksbank in 2013.

Sure enough, Swedish unemployment stopped falling soon after the rate hikes began. Deflation took a little longer, but it eventually arrived. The rock star of the recovery has turned itself into Japan. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Veröffentlicht in Artikel | Getaggt mit: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

A hospital case

Geschrieben von hkarner - 21. Mai 2013

Date: 20-05-2013
Source: The Economist: Schumpeter

Sweden is leading the world in allowing private companies to run public institutions

SAINT GORAN’S hospital is one of the glories of the Swedish welfare state. It is also a laboratory for applying business principles to the public sector. The hospital is run by a private company, Capio, which in turn is run by a consortium of private-equity funds, including Nordic Capital and Apax Partners. The doctors and nurses are Capio employees, answerable to a boss and a board. Doctors talk enthusiastically about “the Toyota model of production” and “harnessing innovation” to cut costs. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Veröffentlicht in Artikel | Getaggt mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Sweden: The new model

Geschrieben von hkarner - 12. Oktober 2012

Date: 11-10-2012
Source: The Economist

A bit more unequal, a lot more efficient

SALTSJÖBADEN, A CHARMING seaside town on the outskirts of Stockholm, has an iconic place in Swedish economic history. The “Saltsjöbaden Accord”, signed there between unions and employers in 1938, ushered in the consensus system of labour relations that remains a pillar of Sweden’s economic model. Nowadays the town is famous for a different reason. It is one of Stockholm’s fanciest suburbs, and the setting for “Sunny Side”, a popular television comedy that pokes fun at the country’s new rich. In the show, Saltsjöbaden’s yuppy residents fret over how to get their babies into the best nursery. A badly behaved child is threatened with banishment to Fisksätra, a poor enclave a few train stops away, where immigrants from 100 countries cram into dilapidated blocks of flats.

The most equal country in the world is becoming less so. Sweden’s Gini coefficient for disposable income is now 0.24, still a lot lower than the rich-world average of 0.31 but around 25% higher than it was a generation ago. That rise is causing considerable angst in a nation whose self-image is staunchly egalitarian. A leftist group caused a media hubbub earlier this year by organising a “class safari” bus tour of Saltsjöbaden and Fisksätra. Opposition leaders insist that the ruling centre-right party is turning Sweden into America. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Veröffentlicht in Artikel | Getaggt mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Lessons from Sweden in Assembling a Recovery

Geschrieben von hkarner - 7. August 2012

 

Author: David Smith · August 6th, 2012 · The Sunday Times

Think today about two countries, both in Europe but not in the euro. They should, in theory, be facing very similar circumstances.

But one country, having performed strongly since the worst of the global financial crisis, surprised the markets a few days ago with a 1.4% jump in gross domestic product in the second quarter.

The other, having struggled since the crisis, shocked markets with a 0.7% second quarter GDP fall. In July, one country’s purchasing managers’ index for its manufacturing sector rose from 48.4 to 50.6, while the other’s slumped from 48.4 to 45.4, its lowest for more than three years.

To end the suspense, the first country is Sweden and the second, as you may have guessed, Britain. For Sweden, to quote Abba, it is a case of The Winner Takes It All.

Though Sweden’s latest GDP figures were a surprise, and have resulted in a hurried upward revision of 2012 growth forecasts, they were no flash in the pan.

After slumping 5% in 2009, Sweden’s economy surged 5.8% in 2010 and 4% last year. Britain shrunk a little less in 2009, 4%, but grew only 1.8% in 2010 and 0.8% last year. Leaving aside the vagaries of the data, the maths suggest any growth this year will be difficult. Sweden’s economy is well above pre-crisis levels of GDP, while Britain’s is more than 4% below it. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Veröffentlicht in weitere Artikel | Getaggt mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

A Random Walk Through the Data Minefields

Geschrieben von hkarner - 24. März 2012

By John Mauldin | March 23, 2012

and I dare a little more as I grow older.”

- Michel de Montaigne (influential writer of the French Renaissance)

This Friday finds me sleeping later than I planned … in the lounge at the airport in Stockholm, on my way to Paris. To the great applause of readers all over the world this may be the shortest letter in 12 years. I will write here and on the plane and quit when I land so I can be with friends this evening. No time for exhaustive research, so we will march through random topics that caught my attention this week until it is time to hit the send button. In no particular order, let’s jump in.

Sweden, the Socialist Mecca

I was brought to Stockholm to speak for Swedbank. They arranged for me to meet a wide variety of local people, as well as to have dinner with readers. I talked with a number of people who were in positions of authority during the Swedish credit and debt crisis of the early 1990s. And a crisis it was. The currency was under attack, as the fundamentals were negative. This was at the same time that Soros was attacking the British pound. Interest rates had been rising in Sweden, but the financial environment was being loosened. This meant that Swedish businesses and consumers could borrow in foreign currencies that had much lower interest rates, and borrow they did. The central bank made it very clear that they would protect the value of the currency, and everyone believed them. Remember, this is a relatively small country, and basically everyone knows someone who at least knows someone who was involved with the central bank. The central bank was adamant in its belief that it could protect the value of the currency, and it raised rates by 500% in order to do so. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Veröffentlicht in Artikel | Getaggt mit: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Copying Sweden, Fed Tries to Avoid Becoming Like Japan

Geschrieben von hkarner - 12. August 2011

http://seg.sharethis.com/getSegment.php?purl=http%3A%2F%2Ffbkfinanzwirtschaft.wordpress.com%2Fwp-admin%2Fpost-new.php&jsref=&rnd=1313049475265<:article id=singlePost>Author: David Nowakowski  ·  August 10th, 2011  · RGE EconoMonitor

There’s some precedent for what the Fed did yesterday, though I agree with their doing more easing I don’t know how much I like pre-commitment when inflation is not very low and has been volatile. The Fed’s efforts to actually stimulate credit in the economy have been limp since the markets have been functioning more normally, and depreciating the exchange rate is something they do indirectly; inflation and price level targeting are favored by Bernanke but would require Tea Party and Ron Paul’s stamp of approval to change their legal mandate. So they are doing somewhat weaker communication/commitment measures (though still somewhat effective, judging by market reaction yesterday – which seems to be in line with what we expected (Monetary Policy to the Rescue: Don’t Expect Miracles) and something like a surprise 25bp cut and shift to easing bias in more normal times (i.e. if we weren’t in a liquidity trap). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Veröffentlicht in Artikel | Getaggt mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

How Sweden Steered Clear of the Greece Fiasco

Geschrieben von hkarner - 21. Juni 2011

Date: 20-06-2011
Source: BusinessWeek

The case for national sovereignty: By staying out of the euro, the Swedes have steered clear of Greece’s mess. Brussels, take note

They are taking to the streets in Stockholm, but not with demands. Swedes, this month, ask for no more than a spare patch of grass or dockside granite to bask in the midsummer. The country has never really gone in for protest anyway, and right now there’s nothing to protest about. The economy grew at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter, after 5.7 percent last year, which was the strongest recovery in the European Union. And Sweden still has its krona.

Though it joined the union in 1995, Sweden never adopted the euro. It still enjoys the advantages of a tariff-free common market. It sends ministers, commissioners, and members of parliament to Brussels and Strasbourg. And right now, Swedes are looking south with relief. While Sweden enjoys monetary independence, Germany—another strong exporter with high-end manufacturing and solid growth—shoulders responsibility for saving Greece and preventing a wider financial collapse among the 16 other countries that use the euro. On June 13, Standard & Poor’s gave Greece the world’s lowest credit rating, while Greece’s debt load reached 143% of gross domestic product, the highest in Europe. Sweden’s krona has joined the Swiss franc as a favored currency for traders looking to profit from Germany’s expansion while avoiding the European debt crisis. “If you are buying the Swedish krona,” says Nick Parsons, head of markets strategy in London at National Australia Bank, “you are getting European growth without Greek politics.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Veröffentlicht in Artikel | Getaggt mit: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Fighting Nordic Bubbles

Geschrieben von hkarner - 8. Februar 2011

Mikko Forss  RGE Monitor, Feb 7, 2011 3:23PM

The debate about potential financial imbalances in rapidly growing Sweden—and about the measures that should be taken to prepare for the rising risks—is heated. Moreover, the situation in neighboring Norway and Finland has much in common with that of Sweden. None of these three countries—unlike the other Nordic economies of Iceland and Denmark—saw a housing bust around the time of the recent financial crisis and they are now growing at a robust rate that looks set to continue.

Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Veröffentlicht in Artikel | Getaggt mit: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Swedish Economic Outlook: In Recession, How Long Will It Last?

Geschrieben von hkarner - 3. August 2009

  • In Q2 2009, GDP contracted 6.2% y/y, compared with -6.5% y/y in the previous quarter. GDP was unchanged quarter-over-quarter. The Swedish economy is headed for its worst recession since World War II and is expected to experience a bigger drop in output than that experienced during the banking crisis of the early 1990s. Forecasts put the expected GDP contraction for 2009 in the range of 5% to 7%. The downturn is due to steep fall in exports, contraction in consumer spending, and a big negative growth contribution of inventories.

Veröffentlicht in Artikel | Getaggt mit: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Swedish Banks: Could They Get Burned By Heavy Baltic Exposure?

Geschrieben von hkarner - 26. Juni 2009

The health of Sweden’s banking system is increasingly coming under the microscope given its exposure to the rapidly contracting Baltic economies (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). Swedish banks’ outstanding lending to the three Baltic states is around 20% of their collective GDP (US$ 60 billion), mostly in foreign currency. In June, Sweden’s central bank and the financial supervisory authority (FI) both released stress test results, which showed all the Swedish banks weathering the Baltic malaise. However, the central bank and FI’s stress test scenarios were not especially stressful and may soon start looking more like base case scenarios. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

Veröffentlicht in Artikel | Getaggt mit: , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

 
Follow

Erhalte jeden neuen Beitrag in deinen Posteingang.

Schließe dich 346 Followern an