Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Stiglitz’

Beyond GDP

Posted by hkarner - 5. Dezember 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

What we measure affects what we do. If we focus only on material wellbeing – on, say, the production of goods, rather than on health, education, and the environment – we become distorted in the same way that these measures are distorted; we become more materialistic.

INCHEON – Just under ten years ago, the International Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress issued its report, Mismeasuring Our Lives: Why GDP Doesn’t Add Up.The title summed it up: GDP is not a good measure of wellbeing. What we measure affects what we do, and if we measure the wrong thing, we will do the wrong thing. If we focus only on material wellbeing – on, say, the production of goods, rather than on health, education, and the environment – we become distorted in the same way that these measures are distorted; we become more materialistic.

We were more than pleased with the reception of our report, which spurred an international movement of academics, civil society, and governments to construct and employ metrics that reflected a broader conception of wellbeing. The OECD has constructed a Better Life Index, containing a range of metrics that better reflect what constitutes and leads to wellbeing. It also supported a successor to the Commission, the High Level Expert Group on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress. Last week, at the OECD’s sixth World Forum on Statistics, Knowledge, and Policy in Incheon, South Korea, the Group issued its report, Beyond GDP: Measuring What Counts for Economic and Social Performance. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Can American Democracy Come Back?

Posted by hkarner - 8. November 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

America’s ideals of freedom, democracy, and justice for all may never have been fully realized, but now they are under open attack. Democracy has become rule of, by, and for the few; and justice for all is available to all who are white and can afford it.

NEW YORK – The United States has long held itself up as a bastion of democracy. It has promoted democracy around the world. It fought, at great cost, for democracy against fascism in Europe during World War II. Now the fight has come home.

America’s credentials as a democracy were always slightly blemished. The US was founded as a representative democracy, but only a small fraction of its citizens – mostly white male property owners – were eligible to vote. After the abolition of slavery, the white people of America’s South struggled for nearly a century to keep African-Americans from voting, using poll taxes and literacy tests, for example, to make casting a ballot inaccessible to the poor. Their voting rights were guaranteed nearly a half-century after the enfranchisement of women in 1920. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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DIE TÜCKEN STAATLICHER BILANZEN

Posted by hkarner - 24. Oktober 2018

FURCHE-Kolumne 252 Wilfried Stadler

Seit 2011 steht Christine Lagarde an der Spitze des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF). Unter ihrer souveränen Führung leistete diese nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg gegründete, globale Zentralbank entscheidende Beiträge zur Überwindung der Eurokrise. Aus den Reihen der für den Währungsfonds tätigen Ökonomen gehen immer wieder Wirtschafts-Nobelpreisträger hervor, wie zuletzt vor wenigen Wochen der US-Amerikaner Paul Romer und vor ihm schon 2001 Joseph Stiglitz.

Vor kurzem traten nun die die IWF-Experten mit einem neuen Thema an die Öffentlichkeit, von dem sie vielleicht insgeheim hoffen, wieder eine Grundlage für spätere Auszeichnungen zu schaffen. Es geht um den ambitionierten Versuch, Staatshaushalte nicht nur nach der Höhe des Schuldenstandes zu bewerten und danach, ob diese Schulden aller Voraussicht nach auch bedient werden können. Das höchst ehrgeizige Ziel ist, darüber hinaus eine Art Vermögensbilanz des öffentlichen Sektors zu erarbeiten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Joseph Stiglitz on artificial intelligence: ‚We’re going towards a more divided society‘

Posted by hkarner - 10. September 2018

Date: 09-09-2018
Source: The Guardian by Ian Sample Science editor

The technology could vastly improve lives, the economist says – but only if the tech titans that control it are properly regulated. ‘What we have now is totally inadequate’

Main image: ‘All the worst tendencies of the private sector in taking advantage of people are heightened by these new technologies’ … Joseph Stiglitz.

It must be hard for Joseph Stiglitz to remain an optimist in the face of the grim
future he fears may be coming. The Nobel laureate and former chief economist at the World Bank has thought carefully about how artificial intelligence will affect our lives. On the back of the technology, we could build ourselves a richer society and perhaps enjoy a shorter working week, he says. But there are countless pitfalls to avoid on the way. The ones Stiglitz has in mind are hardly trivial. He worries about hamfisted moves that lead to routine exploitation in our daily lives, that leave society more divided than ever and threaten the fundamentals of democracy.

“Artificial intelligence and robotisation have the potential to increase the productivity of the economy and, in principle, that could make everybody better off,” he says. “But only if they are well managed.”

On 11 September, the Columbia University professor will be in London to deliver the latest lecture in the Royal Society’s You and AI series. Stiglitz will talk about the future of work, an area where predictions have been frequent, contradictory and unnerving. Last month, the Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, warned that “large swathes” of Britain’s workforce face unemployment as AI and other technologies automate more jobs. He had less to say about the new positions AI may create. A report from PricewaterhouseCoopers in July argued that AI may create as many jobs as it destroys – perhaps even more. As with the Industrial Revolution, the misery would come not from a lack of work, but the difficulty in switching from one job to another. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Beyond Secular Stagnation

Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

There is no reason economists should agree about what is politically possible. What they can and should agree about is what would have happened if their preferred policies had been implemented – and keep those lessons in mind as the next downturn approaches.

NEW YORK – As Larry Summers rightly points out, the term “secular stagnation” became popular as World War II was drawing to a close. Alvin Hansen (and many others) worried that, without the stimulation provided by the war, the economy would return to recession or depression. There was, it seemed, a fundamental malady.

But it didn’t happen. How did Hansen and others get it so wrong? Like some modern-day secular stagnation advocates, there were deep flaws in the underlying micro- and macroeconomic analysis – most importantly, in the analysis of the causes of the Great Depression itself.

As Bruce Greenwald and I (with our co-authors) have argued, high growth in agricultural productivity (combined with high global production) drove down crop prices – in some cases by 75% – in the first three years of the Depression alone. Incomes in the country’s major economic sector plummeted by around half. The crisis in agriculture led to a decrease in demand for urban goods and thus to an economy-wide downturn. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Klarstellung zur säkularen Stagnation

Posted by hkarner - 5. September 2018

Lawrence H. Summers, US Secretary of the Treasury (1999-2001) and Director of the US National Economic Council (2009-2010), is a former president of Harvard University, where he is currently University Professor.

CAMBRIDGE – Joseph Stiglitz hat kürzlich die Relevanz einer säkularen Stagnation für die amerikanische Wirtschaft in Abrede gestellt und dabei meine Arbeit für die Regierungen der Präsidenten Bill Clinton und Barack Obama angegriffen (ohne meinen Namen zu erwähnen). Ich bin kein neutraler Beobachter, aber nicht zum ersten Mal finde ich, dass Stiglitz‘ wissenschaftlich theoretische Arbeit zwar überaus stark, aber seine politischen Kommentare ebenso schwach sind. 

Stiglitz ruft Konservative wie John Taylor in Erinnerung, wenn er darauf verweist, dass es sich bei der Idee der säkularen Stagnation um eine fatalistische Doktrin handelt, die als Ausrede für eine schlechte Wirtschaftsleistung in den Jahren der Präsidentschaft Obamas herhalten muss. Das ist einfach nicht richtig. Die Theorie der säkularen Stagnation – wie von Alvin Hansen konzipiert und von mir vorgebracht – besagt, dass die Privatwirtschaft im Anschluss an eine starke Kontraktion auf sich allein gestellt womöglich den Weg in Richtung Vollbeschäftigung nicht mehr findet, weswegen politischen Maßnahmen entscheidende Bedeutung zukommt. Ich glaube, das ist auch Stiglitz’ Meinung, weswegen ich seine Angriffe nicht verstehe.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Myth of Secular Stagnation

Posted by hkarner - 29. August 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

Those responsible for managing the 2008 recovery found the idea of secular stagnation attractive, because it explained their failures to achieve a quick, robust recovery. So, as the economy languished, a concept born during the Great Depression of the 1930s was revived.

NEW YORK – In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, some economists argued that the United States, and perhaps the global economy, was suffering from “secular stagnation,” an idea first conceived in the aftermath of the Great Depression. Economies had always recovered from downturns. But the Great Depression had lasted an unprecedented length of time. Many believed that the economy recovered only because of government spending on World War II, and many feared that with the end of the war, the economy would return to its doldrums.

Something, it was believed, had happened, such that even with low or zero interest rates, the economy would languish. For reasons now well understood, these dire predictions fortunately turned out to be wrong.

Those responsible for managing the 2008 recovery (the same individuals bearing culpability for the under-regulation of the economy in its pre-crisis days, to whom President Barack Obama inexplicably turned to fix what they had helped break) found the idea of secular stagnation attractive, because it explained their failures to achieve a quick, robust recovery. So, as the economy languished, the idea was revived: Don’t blame us, its promoters implied, we’re doing what we can. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The US is at Risk of Losing a Trade War with China

Posted by hkarner - 31. Juli 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

The “best” outcome of President Donald Trump’s narrow focus on the US trade deficit with China would be improvement in the bilateral balance, matched by an increase of an equal amount in the deficit with some other country (or countries). In fact, significantly reducing the bilateral trade deficit will prove difficult.

NEW YORK – What was at first a trade skirmish – with US President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum – appears to be quickly morphing into a full-scale trade war with China. If the truce agreed by Europe and the US holds, the US will be doing battle mainly with China, rather than the world (of course, the trade conflict with Canada and Mexico will continue to simmer, given US demands that neither country can or should accept).

Beyond the true, but by now platitudinous, assertion that everyone will lose, what can we say about the possible outcomes of Trump’s trade war? First, macroeconomics always prevails: if the United States’ domestic investment continues to exceed its savings, it will have to import capital and have a large trade deficit. Worse, because of the tax cuts enacted at the end of last year, the US fiscal deficit is reaching new records – recently projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2020 – which means that the trade deficit almost surely will increase, whatever the outcome of the trade war. The only way that won’t happen is if Trump leads the US into a recession, with incomes declining so much that investment and imports plummet. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ist der Euro noch zu retten?

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juni 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

NEW YORK – Der Euro steuert möglicherweise auf eine neuerliche Krise zu. Italien, die drittgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Eurozone, hat eine Regierung gewählt, die sich am besten als euroskeptisch beschreiben lässt. Dies sollte niemanden überraschen. Die Gegenreaktion in Italien ist eine weitere vorhersehbare (und vorhergesagte) Episode in der langen Saga eines schlecht konzipierten Währungssystems, in dem die dominante Macht, Deutschland, die notwendigen Reformen behindert und auf einer Politik beharrt, die die dem System innewohnenden Probleme verschärft, wobei sie eine Rhetorik verwendet, die scheinbar die Absicht verfolgt, Leidenschaften anzuheizen.

Italien hat sich seit der Einführung des Euro wirtschaftlich schlecht entwickelt. Sein reales (inflationsbereinigtes) BIP des Jahres 2016 war dasselbe wie das des Jahres 2001. Aber auch für die Eurozone als Ganze läuft es nicht gut. Zwischen 2008 und 2016 ist ihr reales BIP insgesamt um bloße 3% gestiegen. Im Jahr 2000 – ein Jahr nach Einführung des Euro – war die US-Volkswirtschaft lediglich 13% größer als die der Eurozone; 2016 waren es 26%. Nach einem realen Wachstum von rund 2,4% in 2017 – was nicht genug war, um die durch ein Jahrzehnt der Misere verursachten Schäden auszugleichen – ist die Wirtschaft der Eurozone nun erneut ins Stocken geraten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Costa Rica macht es richtig

Posted by hkarner - 14. Mai 2018

SAN JOSÉ – Autoritarismus und Protofaschismus sind in so vielen Teilen der Welt auf dem Vormarsch, dass es ermutigend ist ein Land zu sehen, in dem sich die Bürgerinnen und Bürger den demokratischen Prinzipien nach wie vor zutiefst verpflichtet fühlen. Derzeit ist diese Nation bestrebt, ihre Politik für das einundzwanzigste Jahrhundert neu zu definieren.

Costa Rica, ein Land mit weniger als fünf Millionen Einwohnern, hat im Lauf der Jahre weltweite Beachtung für seine progressive Staatsführung gefunden. 1948, nach einem kurzen Bürgerkrieg, schaffte Präsident José Figueres Ferrer das Militär ab. Seitdem hat sich Costa Rica als Forschungszentrum für Konfliktverhütung und -beilegung etabliert und ist Sitz der unter dem Mandat der Vereinten Nationen entstandenen Friedensuniversität. Auch in Bezug auf die Umwelt hat Costa Rica mit seiner reichen Biodiversität eine weitsichtige Politik betrieben und auf Wiederaufforstung gesetzt, ein Drittel des Landes zum Naturschutzgebiet erklärt und bezieht fast seinen gesamten Strom aus sauberer Wasserkraft.

Es deutet nichts darauf hin, dass sich die Costa Ricaner von ihrem fortschrittlichen Erbe lösen wollen. Bei den mit einer hohen Wahlbeteiligung durchgeführten jüngsten Präsidentschaftswahlen konnte sich Carlos Alvarado Quesada mit über 60% der Stimmen gegen einen Kontrahenten durchsetzen, der das langjährige Engagement für die Menschenrechte mit seiner Weigerung, gleichgeschlechtliche Ehen anzuerkennen zurückgeworfen hätte. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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