Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Stiglitz’

Joseph Stiglitz on artificial intelligence: ‚We’re going towards a more divided society‘

Posted by hkarner - 10. September 2018

Date: 09-09-2018
Source: The Guardian by Ian Sample Science editor

The technology could vastly improve lives, the economist says – but only if the tech titans that control it are properly regulated. ‘What we have now is totally inadequate’

Main image: ‘All the worst tendencies of the private sector in taking advantage of people are heightened by these new technologies’ … Joseph Stiglitz.

It must be hard for Joseph Stiglitz to remain an optimist in the face of the grim
future he fears may be coming. The Nobel laureate and former chief economist at the World Bank has thought carefully about how artificial intelligence will affect our lives. On the back of the technology, we could build ourselves a richer society and perhaps enjoy a shorter working week, he says. But there are countless pitfalls to avoid on the way. The ones Stiglitz has in mind are hardly trivial. He worries about hamfisted moves that lead to routine exploitation in our daily lives, that leave society more divided than ever and threaten the fundamentals of democracy.

“Artificial intelligence and robotisation have the potential to increase the productivity of the economy and, in principle, that could make everybody better off,” he says. “But only if they are well managed.”

On 11 September, the Columbia University professor will be in London to deliver the latest lecture in the Royal Society’s You and AI series. Stiglitz will talk about the future of work, an area where predictions have been frequent, contradictory and unnerving. Last month, the Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, warned that “large swathes” of Britain’s workforce face unemployment as AI and other technologies automate more jobs. He had less to say about the new positions AI may create. A report from PricewaterhouseCoopers in July argued that AI may create as many jobs as it destroys – perhaps even more. As with the Industrial Revolution, the misery would come not from a lack of work, but the difficulty in switching from one job to another. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Beyond Secular Stagnation

Posted by hkarner - 7. September 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

There is no reason economists should agree about what is politically possible. What they can and should agree about is what would have happened if their preferred policies had been implemented – and keep those lessons in mind as the next downturn approaches.

NEW YORK – As Larry Summers rightly points out, the term “secular stagnation” became popular as World War II was drawing to a close. Alvin Hansen (and many others) worried that, without the stimulation provided by the war, the economy would return to recession or depression. There was, it seemed, a fundamental malady.

But it didn’t happen. How did Hansen and others get it so wrong? Like some modern-day secular stagnation advocates, there were deep flaws in the underlying micro- and macroeconomic analysis – most importantly, in the analysis of the causes of the Great Depression itself.

As Bruce Greenwald and I (with our co-authors) have argued, high growth in agricultural productivity (combined with high global production) drove down crop prices – in some cases by 75% – in the first three years of the Depression alone. Incomes in the country’s major economic sector plummeted by around half. The crisis in agriculture led to a decrease in demand for urban goods and thus to an economy-wide downturn. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Klarstellung zur säkularen Stagnation

Posted by hkarner - 5. September 2018

Lawrence H. Summers, US Secretary of the Treasury (1999-2001) and Director of the US National Economic Council (2009-2010), is a former president of Harvard University, where he is currently University Professor.

CAMBRIDGE – Joseph Stiglitz hat kürzlich die Relevanz einer säkularen Stagnation für die amerikanische Wirtschaft in Abrede gestellt und dabei meine Arbeit für die Regierungen der Präsidenten Bill Clinton und Barack Obama angegriffen (ohne meinen Namen zu erwähnen). Ich bin kein neutraler Beobachter, aber nicht zum ersten Mal finde ich, dass Stiglitz‘ wissenschaftlich theoretische Arbeit zwar überaus stark, aber seine politischen Kommentare ebenso schwach sind. 

Stiglitz ruft Konservative wie John Taylor in Erinnerung, wenn er darauf verweist, dass es sich bei der Idee der säkularen Stagnation um eine fatalistische Doktrin handelt, die als Ausrede für eine schlechte Wirtschaftsleistung in den Jahren der Präsidentschaft Obamas herhalten muss. Das ist einfach nicht richtig. Die Theorie der säkularen Stagnation – wie von Alvin Hansen konzipiert und von mir vorgebracht – besagt, dass die Privatwirtschaft im Anschluss an eine starke Kontraktion auf sich allein gestellt womöglich den Weg in Richtung Vollbeschäftigung nicht mehr findet, weswegen politischen Maßnahmen entscheidende Bedeutung zukommt. Ich glaube, das ist auch Stiglitz’ Meinung, weswegen ich seine Angriffe nicht verstehe.  Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Myth of Secular Stagnation

Posted by hkarner - 29. August 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

Those responsible for managing the 2008 recovery found the idea of secular stagnation attractive, because it explained their failures to achieve a quick, robust recovery. So, as the economy languished, a concept born during the Great Depression of the 1930s was revived.

NEW YORK – In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, some economists argued that the United States, and perhaps the global economy, was suffering from “secular stagnation,” an idea first conceived in the aftermath of the Great Depression. Economies had always recovered from downturns. But the Great Depression had lasted an unprecedented length of time. Many believed that the economy recovered only because of government spending on World War II, and many feared that with the end of the war, the economy would return to its doldrums.

Something, it was believed, had happened, such that even with low or zero interest rates, the economy would languish. For reasons now well understood, these dire predictions fortunately turned out to be wrong.

Those responsible for managing the 2008 recovery (the same individuals bearing culpability for the under-regulation of the economy in its pre-crisis days, to whom President Barack Obama inexplicably turned to fix what they had helped break) found the idea of secular stagnation attractive, because it explained their failures to achieve a quick, robust recovery. So, as the economy languished, the idea was revived: Don’t blame us, its promoters implied, we’re doing what we can. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The US is at Risk of Losing a Trade War with China

Posted by hkarner - 31. Juli 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

The “best” outcome of President Donald Trump’s narrow focus on the US trade deficit with China would be improvement in the bilateral balance, matched by an increase of an equal amount in the deficit with some other country (or countries). In fact, significantly reducing the bilateral trade deficit will prove difficult.

NEW YORK – What was at first a trade skirmish – with US President Donald Trump imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum – appears to be quickly morphing into a full-scale trade war with China. If the truce agreed by Europe and the US holds, the US will be doing battle mainly with China, rather than the world (of course, the trade conflict with Canada and Mexico will continue to simmer, given US demands that neither country can or should accept).

Beyond the true, but by now platitudinous, assertion that everyone will lose, what can we say about the possible outcomes of Trump’s trade war? First, macroeconomics always prevails: if the United States’ domestic investment continues to exceed its savings, it will have to import capital and have a large trade deficit. Worse, because of the tax cuts enacted at the end of last year, the US fiscal deficit is reaching new records – recently projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2020 – which means that the trade deficit almost surely will increase, whatever the outcome of the trade war. The only way that won’t happen is if Trump leads the US into a recession, with incomes declining so much that investment and imports plummet. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Ist der Euro noch zu retten?

Posted by hkarner - 15. Juni 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

NEW YORK – Der Euro steuert möglicherweise auf eine neuerliche Krise zu. Italien, die drittgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Eurozone, hat eine Regierung gewählt, die sich am besten als euroskeptisch beschreiben lässt. Dies sollte niemanden überraschen. Die Gegenreaktion in Italien ist eine weitere vorhersehbare (und vorhergesagte) Episode in der langen Saga eines schlecht konzipierten Währungssystems, in dem die dominante Macht, Deutschland, die notwendigen Reformen behindert und auf einer Politik beharrt, die die dem System innewohnenden Probleme verschärft, wobei sie eine Rhetorik verwendet, die scheinbar die Absicht verfolgt, Leidenschaften anzuheizen.

Italien hat sich seit der Einführung des Euro wirtschaftlich schlecht entwickelt. Sein reales (inflationsbereinigtes) BIP des Jahres 2016 war dasselbe wie das des Jahres 2001. Aber auch für die Eurozone als Ganze läuft es nicht gut. Zwischen 2008 und 2016 ist ihr reales BIP insgesamt um bloße 3% gestiegen. Im Jahr 2000 – ein Jahr nach Einführung des Euro – war die US-Volkswirtschaft lediglich 13% größer als die der Eurozone; 2016 waren es 26%. Nach einem realen Wachstum von rund 2,4% in 2017 – was nicht genug war, um die durch ein Jahrzehnt der Misere verursachten Schäden auszugleichen – ist die Wirtschaft der Eurozone nun erneut ins Stocken geraten. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Costa Rica macht es richtig

Posted by hkarner - 14. Mai 2018

SAN JOSÉ – Autoritarismus und Protofaschismus sind in so vielen Teilen der Welt auf dem Vormarsch, dass es ermutigend ist ein Land zu sehen, in dem sich die Bürgerinnen und Bürger den demokratischen Prinzipien nach wie vor zutiefst verpflichtet fühlen. Derzeit ist diese Nation bestrebt, ihre Politik für das einundzwanzigste Jahrhundert neu zu definieren.

Costa Rica, ein Land mit weniger als fünf Millionen Einwohnern, hat im Lauf der Jahre weltweite Beachtung für seine progressive Staatsführung gefunden. 1948, nach einem kurzen Bürgerkrieg, schaffte Präsident José Figueres Ferrer das Militär ab. Seitdem hat sich Costa Rica als Forschungszentrum für Konfliktverhütung und -beilegung etabliert und ist Sitz der unter dem Mandat der Vereinten Nationen entstandenen Friedensuniversität. Auch in Bezug auf die Umwelt hat Costa Rica mit seiner reichen Biodiversität eine weitsichtige Politik betrieben und auf Wiederaufforstung gesetzt, ein Drittel des Landes zum Naturschutzgebiet erklärt und bezieht fast seinen gesamten Strom aus sauberer Wasserkraft.

Es deutet nichts darauf hin, dass sich die Costa Ricaner von ihrem fortschrittlichen Erbe lösen wollen. Bei den mit einer hohen Wahlbeteiligung durchgeführten jüngsten Präsidentschaftswahlen konnte sich Carlos Alvarado Quesada mit über 60% der Stimmen gegen einen Kontrahenten durchsetzen, der das langjährige Engagement für die Menschenrechte mit seiner Weigerung, gleichgeschlechtliche Ehen anzuerkennen zurückgeworfen hätte. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Trump’s Trade Confusion

Posted by hkarner - 9. April 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

US President Donald Trump’s recently announced import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and $60 billion in other goods that the US imports from China each year are in keeping with his record of responding to nonexistent problems. Unfortunately, while Trump captures the world’s attention, serious real problems go unaddressed.

NEW YORK – The trade skirmish between the United States and China on steel, aluminum, and other goods is a product of US President Donald Trump’s scorn for multilateral trade arrangements and the World Trade Organization, an institution that was created to adjudicate trade disputes.

Before announcing import tariffs on more than 1,300 types of Chinese-made goods worth around $60 billion per year, in early March Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum, which he justified on the basis of national security. Trump insists that a tariff on a small fraction of imported steel – the price of which is set globally – will suffice to address a genuine strategic threat. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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We shall overcome – aber wann?

Posted by hkarner - 13. März 2018

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

NEW YORK: 1967 – zwei Jahre nach der Explosion der Gewalt in Watts, einem Stadtviertel von Los Angeles – brachen in vielen Städten der USA Unruhen aus: von Newark (New Jersey) bis nach Detroit und Minneapolis im Mittleren Westen. Präsident Lyndon B. Johnson setzte daraufhin eine vom Gouverneur von Illinois, Otto Kerner, geleitete Kommission ein, die die Ursachen untersuchen und Maßnahmen zu ihrer Bekämpfung vorschlagen sollte. Vor fünfzig Jahren dann veröffentlichte die National Advisory Commission on Civil Disorders (gemeinhin als Kerner-Kommission bekannt) ihren Bericht, der eine drastische Schilderung der Bedingungen in Amerika enthielt, die zu den Ausschreitungen geführt hatten.

Die Kerner-Kommission beschrieb ein Land, in dem Afro-Amerikaner systematischer Diskriminierung ausgesetzt waren, unter einer unzureichenden Bildungs- und Wohnsituation litten und kaum wirtschaftliche Chancen hatten. Für sie gab es keinen Amerikanischen Traum. Grundursache war die „die rassische Einstellung und Verhaltensweise der weißen Amerikaner gegenüber schwarzen Amerikanern. Rassenvorurteile haben unsere Geschichte entscheidend geprägt; sie drohen nun, unsere Zukunft in Mittleidenschaft zu ziehen.“ Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Post-Davos Depression

Posted by hkarner - 2. Februar 2018

Chapeau, Prof. Stiglitz: That he dares to be so outspoken about morally corrupt CEOs, who hide behind the „values“ they are talking of!!! (hfk)

 

Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics, is University Professor at Columbia University and Chief Economist at the Roosevelt Institute. His most recent book is Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited: Anti-Globalization in the Era of Trump.

The CEOs of Davos were euphoric this year about the return to growth, strong profits, and soaring executive compensation. Economists reminded them that this growth is not sustainable, and has never been inclusive; but in a world where greed is always good, such arguments have little impact.

DAVOS – I’ve been attending the World Economic Forum’s annual conference in Davos, Switzerland – where the so-called global elite convenes to discuss the world’s problems – since 1995. Never have I come away more dispirited than I have this year.

The world is plagued by almost intractable problems. Inequality is surging, especially in the advanced economies. The digital revolution, despite its potential, also carries serious risks for privacy, security, jobs, and democracy – challenges that are compounded by the rising monopoly power of a few American and Chinese data giants, including Facebook and Google. Climate change amounts to an existential threat to the entire global economy as we know it.

Perhaps more disheartening than such problems, however, are the responses. To be sure, here at Davos, CEOs from around the world begin most of their speeches by affirming the importance of values. Their activities, they proclaim, are aimed not just at maximizing profits for shareholders, but also at creating a better future for their workers, the communities in which they work, and the world more generally. They may even pay lip service to the risks posed by climate change and inequality. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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