Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Nach den kristallklaren Aussagen des Föhrenbergkreises zur Finanzwirtschaft aus dem Jahr 1999 gibt es jetzt einen neuen Arbeitskreis zum Thema.

Mit ‘Roubini’ getaggte Beiträge

After the Gold Rush

Geschrieben von hkarner - 2. Juni 2013

Date: 02-06-2013Roubini CC
Source: Project Syndicate

VENICE – The run-up in gold prices in recent years – from $800 per ounce in early 2009 to above $1,900 in the fall of 2011 – had all the features of a bubble. And now, like all asset-price surges that are divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand, the gold bubble is deflating.

At the peak, gold bugs – a combination of paranoid investors and others with a fear-based political agenda – were happily predicting gold prices going to $2,000, $3,000, and even to $5,000 in a matter of years. But prices have moved mostly downward since then. In April, gold was selling for close to $1,300 per ounce – and the price is still hovering below $1400, an almost 30% drop from the 2011 high.

There are many reasons why the bubble has burst, and why gold prices are likely to move much lower, toward $1,000 by 2015.

First, gold prices tend to spike when there are serious economic, financial, and geopolitical risks in the global economy. During the global financial crisis, even the safety of bank deposits and government bonds was in doubt for some investors. If you worry about financial Armageddon, it is indeed metaphorically the time to stock your bunker with guns, ammunition, canned food, and gold bars.

But, even in that dire scenario, gold might be a poor investment. Indeed, at the peak of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, gold prices fell sharply a few times. In an extreme credit crunch, leveraged purchases of gold cause forced sales, because any price correction triggers margin calls. As a result, gold can be very volatile – upward and downward – at the peak of a crisis.

Second, gold performs best when there is a risk of high inflation, as its popularity as a store of value increases. But, despite very aggressive monetary policy by many central banks – successive rounds of “quantitative easing” have doubled, or even tripled, the money supply in most advanced economies – global inflation is actually low and falling further. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Roubini: Why I like stocks, for now

Geschrieben von hkarner - 9. Mai 2013

Date: 09-05-2013
Source: Fortune

Roubini CCNew York University economist Nouriel Roubini comes under fire for his bullish market call.

FORTUNE — Recently the famously gloomy economist Nouriel Roubini has been talking up stocks. He says the Federal Reserve is pumping up the U.S. market and that the weak global economy will require it to do so for the next two years. That’s an opportunity for anyone who has money in the market. After that, watch out.

But speaking at the SALT hedge fund conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday on a panel with other economists and financiers, Roubini come under fire for his stock market boom and bust investment thesis.

Austan Goolsbee, a former top economic advisor to President Obama, said the idea that the Fed is the only thing making stocks go up is bogus. Goolsbee pointed out that U.S. corporate profits are way up, and that the market is reflecting that. What’s more, Goolsbee said there is little evidence that Bernanke has created any bubbles. Based on historical valuations, Goolsbee said, the market doesn’t look expensive.

Larry Meyer, a former Fed governor also on the panel, said that the Fed will be quick when it eventually raises rates, it won’t do it slowly as Roubini suggest. He said the Fed learned its lesson in the run-up to the housing bubble. “You will never hear the term ‘at a measured pace’ again at the Fed,” says Meyer. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Trapdoors at the Fed’s Exit

Geschrieben von hkarner - 29. April 2013

Date: 29-04-2013
 Source: Project Syndicate
Roubini CC
MUMBAI – The ongoing weakness of America’s economy – where deleveraging in the private and public sectors continues apace – has led to stubbornly high unemployment and sub-par growth. The effects of fiscal austerity – a sharp rise in taxes and a sharp fall in government spending since the beginning of the year – are undermining economic performance even more.

Indeed, recent data have effectively silenced hints by some Federal Reserve officials that the Fed should begin exiting from its current third (and indefinite) round of quantitative easing (QE3). Given slow growth, high unemployment (which has fallen only because discouraged workers are leaving the labor force), and inflation well below the Fed’s target, this is no time to start constraining liquidity.

The problem is that the Fed’s liquidity injections are not creating credit for the real economy, but rather boosting leverage and risk-taking in financial markets. The issuance of risky junk bonds under loose covenants and with excessively low interest rates is increasing; the stock market is reaching new highs, despite the growth slowdown; and money is flowing to high-yielding emerging markets.

Even the periphery of the eurozone is benefiting from the wall of liquidity unleashed by the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and other major central banks. With interest rates on government bonds in the US, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Switzerland at ridiculously low levels, investors are on a global quest for yield. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Global Economy on the Fly

Geschrieben von hkarner - 2. April 2013

Date: 02-04-2013Roubini CC
Source: Project Syndicate, Nouriel Roubini

ISTANBUL – In the last four weeks, I have traveled to Sofia, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai, London, Milan, Frankfurt, Berlin, Paris, Beijing, Tokyo, Istanbul, and throughout the United States. As a result, the myriad challenges facing the global economy were never far away.

In Europe, the tail risk of a eurozone break-up and a loss of market access by Spain and Italy were reduced by last summer’s decision by the European Central Bank to backstop sovereign debt. But the monetary union’s fundamental problems – low potential growth, ongoing recession, loss of competitiveness, and large stocks of private and public debt – have not been resolved.

Moreover, the grand bargain between the eurozone core, the ECB, and the periphery – painful austerity and reforms in exchange for large-scale financial support – is now breaking down, as austerity fatigue in the eurozone periphery runs up against bailout fatigue in core countries like Germany and the Netherlands.

Austerity fatigue in the periphery is clearly evident from the success of anti-establishment forces in Italy’s recent election; large street demonstrations in Spain, Portugal, and elsewhere; and now the botched bailout of Cypriot banks, which has fueled massive public anger. Throughout the periphery, populist parties of the left and right are gaining ground. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Top Economists, Financial Experts and Bankers Say We Must Break Up the Giant Banks

Geschrieben von hkarner - 28. März 2013

Posted By Barry Ritholtz On March 25, 2013 @ 2:00 am In Bailouts,Think Tank | 17 Comments

Bernanke: “Too Big To Fail Was A Major Source of The Crisis, and We Will Not Have Successfully Responded To The Crisis If We Do Not Address That Successfully”

Current Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said [1] yesterday:

“Too Big To Fail is not solved and gone,” he said during a press conference. “It’s still here.”

***

“I agree … 100 percent that it’s a real problem,” he said.

***

“Too Big To Fail was a major source of the crisis,” he added a little later, “and we will not have successfully responded to the crisis if we do not address that successfully.”

Bernanke joins the following top economists and financial experts who believe that the economy cannot recover unless the big, insolvent banks are broken up in an orderly fashion:

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Die besten Talente in den öffentlichen Dienst! The brightest people into government!

Geschrieben von hkarner - 2. März 2013

H,F,Karner, 1/3

HFKarner Foto by Eva Karner (40)Eigentlich hat er ja Recht, der Roubini*:

Wir befinden uns in einer Reset Economy, mit einem wirtschaftlichen, emotionalen und sozialen Reset. “The global economy, and capitalism, will be “reset” in several important ways. It’s an emotional, social, economic reset. The interaction between government and business will change forever. In a reset economy, the government will be a regulator; and also an industry policy champion, a financier, and a key partner”  (Jeff Immelt)

Der Kapitalismus braucht im Staat einen starken Partner und Regulator! Aber mit den Politikern und tw. komischen Beamten? Josef Urschitz (Presse,  28/2) über den Mythos der Pragmatisierung der Beamten: „Die Pragmatisierung von Verwaltungsbeamten ist wichtig, um deren Unabhängigkeit gegenüber politischen Begehrlichkeiten abzusichern.“ Wie es wirklich aussieht, hat der Salzburger Finanzhofrat Paulus neulich vor dem Untersuchungsausschuss zur dortigen Landesspekulationsaffäre durchblicken lassen: Auf die Frage, wieso er dem Landtag über die Spekulationen nicht wahrheitsgemäß berichtet habe, sagte der Topbeamte, es sei „eine absurde Vorstellung, dass der Finanzhofrat gegen den Willen des Ressortchefs dem Landtag etwas berichtet“. Wird schon so sein in der österreichischen Realverfassung, aber wieso muss man Leute, die sich ohnehin nur als ausführendes Organ ihrer jeweiligen politischen Vorgesetzten fühlen, speziell schützen?”

Aber das heisst: Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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US Private-Sector Deleveraging: Where Are We?

Geschrieben von hkarner - 5. Februar 2013

‎02. ‎Februar ‎2013, ‏‎00:01:00 | John Mauldin

I was just in Greece with Christian Menegatti, and we had a good conversation about the piece he has sent along as today’s OTB. The case Christian and his coauthor David Nowakowski lay out regarding an incipient turnaround in US deleveraging (and therefore in economic growth prospects) is in some ways truly outside the box – I certainly wouldn’t call it the consensus view at this point. But they make the argument about as strongly as it can be made; so, if nothing else, they give us a solid piece of work off of which we can bounce counterarguments.

For new readers: I often feature pieces in Outside the Box that make us think and that don’t reflect my personal bias or opinion. The point is that, if you only read what you agree with, you will miss the important changes and associated opportunities when they happen. And note that this piece is from Christian, who is head of research at Roubini Global Economics – not exactly a hotbed of bullishness. (By the way, Nouriel will be at my conference this year, more on which in a few weeks.)

The authors point out that deleveraging in the US household sector is nearing completion, with consumer credit starting to releverage and home prices creeping upward. They admit that mortgage flows are still bad news – they remain in the negative territory they have occupied since 2008. Offsetting that, the authors see a promising surge in housing starts, which they project could grow by 30% this year. (But will the buyers be there, ready to load up on the debt it takes to buy a home?) Oh, and then there are those skyrocketing student-loan defaults, but they amount to “a mere $1 trillion,” say the authors, “and so [are] unlikely to trigger a systemic financial explosion” – though they do exceed both auto loans and credit-card debt. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Preparing for a Perfect Storm

Geschrieben von hkarner - 2. Februar 2013

Roubini

Author: Nouriel Roubini · January 31st, 2013 · , Project Syndicate

The global economy this year will exhibit some similarities with the conditions that prevailed in 2012. No surprise there: We face another year in which global growth will average about 3 percent, but with a multispeed recovery—a subpar, below-trend annual rate of 1 percent in the advanced economies, and close-to-trend rates of 5 percent in emerging markets. But there will be some important differences as well.

Painful deleveraging—less spending and more saving to reduce debt and leverage—remains ongoing in most advanced economies, which implies slow economic growth. But fiscal austerity will envelop most advanced economies this year, rather than just the Eurozone periphery and the United Kingdom. Indeed, austerity is spreading to the core of the Eurozone, the United States, and other advanced economies (with the exception of Japan). Given synchronized fiscal retrenchment in most advanced economies, another year of mediocre growth could give way to outright contraction in some countries. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Das Comeback-Kid der Weltwirtschaft

Geschrieben von hkarner - 24. Januar 2013

Naja, da geht mit ihm sein amerikanisches (wusste ich gar nicht) Temperament durch. Ein paar Vorlesungen an der Brown University (nicht verlängert) und Harvard, und schon ist das “American Bias” geschaffen. Zeit zum ordentlichen Recherchieren lassen ihm seine vielfältigen Aktivitäten halt nicht mehr.

Nun ein paar (gegenteilige)  Fakten

  1. “Auf der Ebene von Löhnen und Gehältern ist Detroit inzwischen mit Schanghai wettbewerbsfähig”Die Durchschnittslöhne  in Detroit sind 69.000 $ p.a., in Shanghai 5.940 $. Also muss die Produktivität in Detroit wohl zehn mal höher sein?!
  2. Das mit der “Reindustrialisierung Amerika’s” schaue ich mir erst an: Kosten, Facharbeiterausbildung?
  3. der Michael Porter ist seit 15 Jahren vorbei (“Move over, Michael Porter”, Philip Kotler). Drei der acht Punkte sind im Lichte des Patts im Repräsentantenhaus unrealistisch, ausserdem sagen sie anderswo genau, wo Amerika’s Unzulänglichkeiten liegen
  4. die USA als “Lokomotive der Weltwirtschaft”? Die Zeiten sind vorbei (G0 statt G20, das BIP  der Schwellenländer hat eben kaufkraftbereinigt das BIP der Industrieländer überholt). DIE usa wachsen zwar eindeutig schneller als die EU, aber im Vergleich zu den Schwellenländern nicht.
  5. “Gestärkter Präsident”? Naja.
  6. Der ” angesehene Kolumnist Fareed Zakaria”, so der angesehene “Gusi”: Im August 2012 wurde Zakaria nach Plagiatsvorwürfen von Time und CNN suspendiert. Ich bin zwar auch der Meinung, dass Zakaria gut ist, aber angesehen???
  7. Wie die USA ihre Staatsverschuldung von 100% des BIP, ein fiscal GAP des 12-fachen BIP abbauen wollen, ist dem Herrn Finanzexperten Gusenbauer wurscht! Solange Keynes regiert! 
  8. Ich an Gusi’s Stelle halte mich eher an die klugen Amerikaner Mauldin, Hoisington und die Beuteamerikaner Bremmer und Roubini, die die Situation in den USA – bei den volkswirtschaftlichen Basisdaten – für gefährlich für die Weltwirtschaft halten. Man brauche nur auf diesem Blog z.B. nach “Mauldin” suchen und die letzten 6 Einträge lesen!

hfk

Kommentar der anderen | Alfred Gusenbauer, 22. Jänner 2013, 17:21. derstandard.at

Die USA haben gute Zeiten vor sich. Billige Energie wird zu einer Reindustrialisierung beitragen, die demografischen Aussichten sind positiv

Pünktlich zum Jahreswechsel erreichten uns wieder zahlreiche imposante Statistiken und Trendprognosen. Unter den weniger beachteten, aber meines Erachtens deutlich spektakuläreren ist diese: 2020 sollen die USA zum Energieexporteur und 2035 sogar energieautark werden. Diese Prognose ist jedoch nicht einer Revolution erneuerbarer Energie geschuldet, sondern den gigantischen Schiefergasvorkommen in den USA sowie den neu entdeckten Ölvorkommen von Dakota bis zum Golf von Mexiko.

Allen Widerständen von Umweltschützern zum Trotz werden diese Vorkommen leichter zu nutzen sein als in Europa, da sie sich größtenteils in nicht oder nur dünn besiedelten Gebieten befinden. Der Abbau von Schiefergas kann dadurch zu so günstigen ökonomischen Bedingungen erfolgen, dass selbst der theoretische Export von amerikanischem Gas nach Europa Preise nach sich ziehen würde, die 30 Prozent unter den derzeitigen Gasprom-Lieferpreisen lägen. Die USA werden deshalb in absehbarer Zeit erneut über billige Energie verfügen (billiger als in Europa, bedeutend billiger als in China). Das stellt die überzeugendste Einladung an energieintensive Industrieproduktionen dar, sich in den USA niederzulassen. Denn die Energiekosten werden in diesen Produktionssparten schon heute als wesentlicher eingestuft denn die Arbeitskosten. Ob man es gutheißt oder nicht: Auf der Ebene von Löhnen und Gehältern ist Detroit inzwischen mit Schanghai wettbewerbsfähig. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Nouriel Roubini : China is The Biggest Risk for the second half of 2013

Geschrieben von hkarner - 21. Januar 2013

Roubini Blog, 19/1

Roubini Bremmer
Nouriel Roubini :

 “In absolute terms, the United States has significant fiscal, growth and unemployment problems,””[But] paradoxically, if we don’t reach an agreement in March on the fiscal debt ceiling and we get another downgrade, yields are going to fall, they’re not going to go up. Everywhere else, if a country gets a downgrade, the yields go up, in the U.S. it is the opposite.” Roubini said at a Reuters conference in New York on Monday , “We have low growth, we have low inflation below target, we have zero federal funds…in 2015, we’re doing QE3 (a third round of quantitative easing), maybe QE4,” he said. “Every time there is a global bout of risk aversion people go into the dollar and Treasurys,” he said. “At the peak of the crisis, the dollar rallied because we are the safest,” “Here you have five or six reasons why, in spite of large and unsustainable debt and the [political gridlock] the bond vigilantes are asleep at the wheel- and they’re going to stay like that for a while.” “Eventually the bond vigilantes are going to figure out that our debts are unsustainable [alongside those] in Europe, in Japan and in emerging markets and…Eventually, if we don’t solve our problems, if we [still] have this dysfunctional political system, then the bond vigilantes are going to wake up, but not yet.”-

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