Föhrenbergkreis Finanzwirtschaft

Unkonventionelle Lösungen für eine zukunftsfähige Gesellschaft

Posts Tagged ‘Roubini’

Unconventional Monetary Policy on Stilts

Posted by hkarner - 1. April 2016

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

APR 1, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – With most advanced economies experiencing anemic recoveries from the 2008 financial crisis, their central banks have been forced to move from conventional monetary policy – reducing policy rates via open-market purchases of short-term government bonds – to a range of unconventional policies. Although the zero nominal bound on interest rates – previously only a theoretical possibility – had been reached and zero-interest-rate policy (ZIRP) had been implemented, growth remained anemic. So central banks embraced measures that didn’t even exist in their policy toolkit a decade ago. And now they are poised to do so again.

The list of unconventional measures has been extensive. There was quantitative easing (QE), or purchases of long-term government bonds, once short-term rates were already zero. This was accompanied by credit easing (CE), which took the form of central-bank purchases of private or semi-private assets – such as mortgage- and other asset-backed securities, covered bonds, corporate bonds, real-estate trust funds, and even equities via exchange-traded funds. The aim was to reduce private credit spreads (the difference between yields on private assets and those on government bonds of similar maturity) and to boost, directly and indirectly, the price of other risky assets such as equities and real estate. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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2008 Revisited?

Posted by hkarner - 3. März 2016

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

MAR 2, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – The question I am asked most often nowadays is this: Are we back to 2008 and another global financial crisis and recession?

My answer is a straightforward no, but that the recent episode of global financial market turmoil is likely to be more serious than any period of volatility and risk-off behavior since 2009. This is because there are now at least seven sources of global tail risk, as opposed to the single factors – the eurozone crisis, the Federal Reserve “taper tantrum,” a possible Greek exit from the eurozone, and a hard economic landing in China – that have fueled volatility in recent years. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Global Economy’s New Abnormal

Posted by hkarner - 4. Februar 2016

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

FEB 4, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK Since the beginning of the year, the world economy has faced a new bout of severe financial market volatility, marked by sharply falling prices for equities and other risky assets. A variety of factors are at work: concerns about a hard landing for the Chinese economy; worries that growth in the United States is faltering at a time when the Fed has begun raising interest rates; fears of escalating Saudi-Iranian conflict; and signs – most notably plummeting oil and commodity prices – of severe weakness in global demand.

And there’s more. The fall in oil prices – together with market illiquidity, the rise in the leverage of US energy firms and that of energy firms and fragile sovereigns in oil-exporting economies – is stoking fears of serious credit events (defaults) and systemic crisis in credit markets. And then there are the seemingly never-ending worries about Europe, with a British exit (Brexit) from the European Union becoming more likely, while populist parties of the right and the left gain ground across the continent. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Davos 2016: Questions About Globalization’s End and What Comes Next

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2016

Date: 23-01-2016
Source: Forbes

Each year the World Economic Forum convenes government, industry and activist leaders to offer regional and international proposals along with private-public partnerships. Uncertainty and the expectations for “fundamental, radical global shifts” have permeated the 2016 meeting, explains Paul Laudicina for Forbes. “How leaders manage this system shift in years to come will determine the course the world takes, either towards growth, stability, and integration, or towards fracture and contraction in an increasingly protectionist and isolated environment.” Alternatives to the current form of globalization might include islandization, polarization or a new form of globalization. Leaders meeting at Davos may prefer the new form of globalization, though that requires leadership that can articulate a vision, ensuring global and democratic conversations; demonstrate commitment to ideals and the rule of law with accountability and transparency; and forge connections among diverse cultures. Inequality threatens globalization, unless leaders develop agendas and rally citizens behind proposals that offer opportunity for all. – YaleGlobal

Globalization has stalled; prospects for the world may include islandization, polarization or a new form of globalization that requires leadership

Something is different on the Mountain this year. The tone of the Davos dialogue has shifted markedly in the nearly two decades I’ve trekked to the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum. The buzz has morphed from global exuberance in the roaring 90s, to post 9/11 shock, to recession obsession, to this year’s focus on fundamental, radical global shifts in process. But where are we headed? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Europe Question in 2016

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2016

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

JAN 4, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – At the cusp of the new year, we face a world in which geopolitical and geo-economic risks are multiplying. Most of the Middle East is ablaze, stoking speculation that a long Sunni-Shia war (like Europe’s Thirty Years’ War between Catholics and Protestants) could be at hand. China’s rise is fueling a wide range of territorial disputes in Asia and challenging America’s strategic leadership in the region. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has apparently become a semi-frozen conflict, but one that could reignite at any time.

There is also the chance of another epidemic, as outbreaks of SARS, MERS, Ebola, and other infectious diseases have shown in recent years. Cyber-warfare is a looming threat as well, and non-state actors and groups are creating conflict and chaos from the Middle East to North and Sub-Saharan Africa. Last, but certainly not least, climate change is already causing significant damage, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and lethal. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Barbarians Inside the Gate

Posted by hkarner - 30. November 2015

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NOV 30, 2015, Project Syndicate

BERLIN – I am on a two-week European tour at a time that could make one either very pessimistic or constructively optimistic about Europe’s prospects.

First the bad news: Paris is somber, if not depressed, after the appalling terrorist attacks earlier this month. France’s economic growth remains anemic, the unemployed and many Muslims are disaffected, and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Front is likely to do well in the upcoming regional elections. In Brussels, which was semi-deserted and in lockdown, owing to the risk of terrorist attacks, the European Union institutions have yet to devise a unified strategy to manage the influx of migrants and refugees, much less address the instability and violence in the EU’s immediate neighborhood. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Politics of Dystopia

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

OCT 29, 2015, Project Syndicate

TOKYO – The recent victory of the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland confirms a recent trend in Europe: the rise of illiberal state capitalism, led by populist right-wing authoritarians. Call it Putinomics in Russia, Órbanomics in Hungary, Erdoğanomics in Turkey, or a decade of Berlusconomics from which Italy is still recovering. Soon we will no doubt be seeing Kaczyńskinomics in Poland.

All are variations on the same discordant theme: a nationalist leader comes to power when economic malaise gives way to chronic and secular stagnation. This elected authoritarian then starts to reduce political freedoms through tight-fisted control of the media, especially television. Then, he (so far, it has always been a man, though France’s Marine Le Pen would fit the pattern should she ever come to power) pursues an agenda opposing the European Union (when the country is a member) or other institutions of supra-national governance.

He will also oppose free trade, globalization, immigration, and foreign direct investment, while favoring domestic workers and firms, particularly state-owned enterprises and private business and financial groups with ties to those in power. In some cases, outright nativist, racist parties support such government or provide an even deeper authoritarian and anti-democratic streak. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Middle East Meltdown and Global Risk

Posted by hkarner - 1. Oktober 2015

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

OCT 1, 2015, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – Among today’s geopolitical risks, none is greater than the long arc of instability stretching from the Maghreb to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. With the Arab Spring an increasingly distant memory, the instability along this arc is deepening. Indeed, of the three initial Arab Spring countries, Libya has become a failed state, Egypt has returned to authoritarian rule, and Tunisia is being economically and politically destabilized by terrorist attacks.

The violence and instability of North Africa is now spreading into Sub-Saharan Africa, with the Sahel – one of the world’s poorest and most environmentally damaged regions – now gripped by jihadism, which is also seeping into the Horn of Africa to its east. And, as in Libya, civil wars are raging in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia, all of which increasingly look like failed states. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Roubini : The Markets Are Too Pessimistic About Chinese Growth

Posted by hkarner - 4. September 2015

Roubini Cernobbio 2015Roubini Global Economics Co-founder and Chairman Nouriel Roubini discusses China’s slowdown, his strategy for the markets and when the U.S. will raise interest rates. He speaks to Bloomberg’s Guy Johnson and Anna Edwards from the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy. (Source: Bloomberg) 4/9/2015

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A Financial Early-Warning System

Posted by hkarner - 27. August 2015

Date: 27-08-2015
Source: Project Syndicate

NOURIEL ROUBINIRoubini CC

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – Recent market volatility – in emerging and developed economies alike – is showing once again how badly ratings agencies and investors can err in assessing countries’ economic and financial vulnerabilities. Ratings agencies wait too long to spot risks and downgrade countries, while investors behave like herds, often ignoring the build-up of risk for too long, before shifting gears abruptly and causing exaggerated market swings.

Given the nature of market turmoil, an early-warning system for financial tsunamis may be difficult to create; but the world needs one today more than ever. Few people foresaw the subprime crisis of 2008, the risk of default in the eurozone, or the current turbulence in financial markets worldwide. Fingers have been pointed at politicians, banks, and supranational institutions. But ratings agencies and analysts who misjudged the repayment ability of debtors – including governments – have gotten off too lightly.

In principle, credit ratings are based on statistical models of past defaults; in practice, however, with few national defaults having actually occurred, sovereign ratings are often a subjective affair. Analysts at ratings agencies follow developments in the country for which they are responsible and, when necessary, travel there to review the situation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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