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Posts Tagged ‘Roubini’

Alpha, Beta, and Beyond

Posted by hkarner - 27. Juli 2015

JUL 27, 2015 4, Project Syndicate 

NEW YORK – Even in normal times, individual and institutional investors alike have a hard time figuring out where to invest and in what. Should one invest more in advanced or emerging economies? And which ones? How does one decide when, and in what way, to rebalance one’s portfolio?

Obviously, these choices become harder still in abnormal times, when major global changes occur and central banks follow unconventional policies. But a new, low-cost approach promises to ease the challenge confronting investors in normal and abnormal times alike.

In the asset management industry, there have traditionally been two types of investment strategies: passive and active. The passive approach includes investment in indices that track specific benchmarks, say, the S&P 500 for the United States or an index of advanced economies or emerging-market equities. In effect, one buys the index of the market. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Nouriel Roubini, Dr Doom, says Grexit would be a catastrophe

Posted by hkarner - 20. Juli 2015

July 19, 2015 3:54 am, FTWorld Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007

Nouriel Roubini, the renowned economist known as Dr Doom, told FTfm the consequences of Greece leaving the euro would be “catastrophic” for the global economy.

Mr Roubini, a former senior adviser to the White House, said that if Greece left the eurozone, the fallout would be far wider than the inevitable pain for the Greek economy.

“It will not happen because the consequences would be too terrible,” he said.

Greece has reached an uneasy deal with its creditors to prevent it crashing out of the eurozone.

Mr Roubini, known as Dr Doom for his predictions on the US housing crash and global financial crisis, said the biggest danger of a Greek departure would be that Greece’s ties with Russia would grow stronger. He said this could enable Russia to regain influence in the Balkans at a time when its dealings with Ukraine is already a concern for politicians.

He said: “We could see Russian influence extending in the Balkans again.” Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Roubini : This ‘time bomb’ will trigger next Financial Collapse

Posted by hkarner - 6. Juli 2015

Saturday, July 4, 2015


The man who called the 2008 financial crisis is sounding the alarm about what may cause the next one.
Nouriel Roubini, who has been dubbed “Dr. Doom” for his dark predictions, warned in an Op-Ed in The Guardian on Monday about the existence of a “liquidity time bomb” that he fears will eventually “trigger a bust and a collapse.”

The New York University economist joins a growing number of observers who are worried about the issue. Liquidity is the lifeblood of financial markets. It measures how easy it is for investors to quickly sell stocks and bonds. When investors get fearful but can’t sell their stocks, it causes even more panic. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Roubini on Italian political risk and emerging markets

Posted by hkarner - 29. Juni 2015

Friday, June 26, 2015

New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini comments on the state of the U.S. economy from Cernobbio, Italy
Roubini Cernobbio Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

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The Liquidity Time Bomb

Posted by hkarner - 1. Juni 2015

Date: 01-06-2015
Source: Project Syndicate

NOURIEL ROUBINIWorld Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – A paradox has emerged in the financial markets of the advanced economies since the 2008 global financial crisis. Unconventional monetary policies have created a massive overhang of liquidity. But a series of recent shocks suggests that macro liquidity has become linked with severe market illiquidity.

Polist interest rates are near zero (and sometimes below it) in most advanced economies, and the monetary base (money created by central banks in the form of cash and liquid commercial-bank reserves) has soared – doubling, tripling, and, in the United States, quadrupling relative to the pre-crisis period. This has kept short- and long-term interest rates low (and even negative in some cases, such as Europe and Japan), reduced the volatility of bond markets, and lifted many asset prices (including equities, real estate, and fixed-income private- and public-sector bonds). Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Signs of Life in the Eurozone

Posted by hkarner - 2. April 2015

Date: 01-04-2015
Source: Project Syndicate

NOURIEL ROUBINIWorld Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – The latest economic data from the eurozone suggest that recovery may be at hand. What is driving the upturn? What obstacles does it face? And what can be done to sustain it?

The immediate causes of recovery are not difficult to discern. Last year, the eurozone was on the verge of a double-dip recession. When it recently fell into technical deflation, the European Central Bank finally pulled the trigger on aggressive easing and launched a combination of quantitative easing (including sovereign-bond purchases) and negative policy rates. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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German Investment: The Pedal Is Off the Metal

Posted by hkarner - 1. April 2015

Author: Michelle Tejada  ·  March 31st, 2015  ·  RGE EconoMonitor

There is an ongoing discussion on whether Germany is underinvesting and whether it could do more to increase its growth through investment. An analysis of recent trends produced by Roubini (subscription only; referenced today in Bloomberg) shows that German investment is low when measured against its current ability to invest, and is unlikely to significantly increase in coming years, capping output growth. German structural and policy justifications are not irrational, although they are short-sighted; and current trends represent a missed opportunity to stimulate the economy, while limiting growth potential possible positive spillovers to the rest of the Eurozone.

Although households have historically been net saver, in the past three years the government has become a net saver as well. The government is giving priority to fiscal consolidation; reducing debt levels permanently and faster than required by the European rules. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Negative Way to Growth?

Posted by hkarner - 2. März 2015

Date: 01-03-2015
Source: Project Syndicate

NOURIEL ROUBINIWorld Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – Monetary policy has become increasingly unconventional in the last six years, with central banks implementing zero-interest-rate policies, quantitative easing, credit easing, forward guidance, and unlimited exchange-rate intervention. But now we have come to the most unconventional policy tool of them all: negative nominal interest rates. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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An Unconventional Truth

Posted by hkarner - 1. Februar 2015

Date: 01-02-2015
Source: Project Syndicate

NOURIEL ROUBINIWorld Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – Who would have thought that six years after the global financial crisis, most advanced economies would still be swimming in an alphabet soup – ZIRP, QE, CE, FG, NDR, and U-FX Int – of unconventional monetary policies? No central bank had considered any of these measures (zero interest rate policy, quantitative easing, credit easing, forward guidance, negative deposit rate, and unlimited foreign exchange intervention, respectively) before 2008. Today, they have become a staple of policymakers’ toolkits.

Indeed, just in the last year and a half, the European Central Bank adopted its own version of FG, then moved to ZIRP, and then embraced CE, before deciding to try NDR. In January, it fully adopted QE. Indeed, by now the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, and a variety of smaller advanced economies’ central banks, such as the Swiss National Bank, have all relied on such unconventional policies. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Where Will All the Workers Go?

Posted by hkarner - 2. Januar 2015

Date: 01-01-2015
Source: Project Syndicate

NOURIEL ROUBINIWorld Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2007

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – Technology innovators and CEOs seem positively giddy nowadays about what the future will bring. New manufacturing technologies have generated feverish excitement about what some see as a Third Industrial Revolution. In the years ahead, technological improvements in robotics and automation will boost productivity and efficiency, implying significant economic gains for companies. But, unless the proper policies to nurture job growth are put in place, it remains uncertain whether demand for labor will continue to grow as technology marches forward.

Recent technological advances have three biases: They tend to be capital-intensive (thus favoring those who already have financial resources); skill-intensive (thus favoring those who already have a high level of technical proficiency); and labor-saving (thus reducing the total number of unskilled and semi-skilled jobs in the economy). The risk is that robotics and automation will displace workers in blue-collar manufacturing jobs before the dust of the Third Industrial Revolution settles.

The rapid development of smart software over the last few decades has been perhaps the most important force shaping the coming manufacturing revolution. Software innovation, together with 3D printing technologies, will open the door to those workers who are educated enough to participate; for everyone else, however, it may feel as though the revolution is happening elsewhere. Indeed, the factory of the future may be 1,000 robots and one worker manning them. Even the shop floor can be swept better and cheaper by a Roomba robot than by any worker. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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