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Posts Tagged ‘Roubini’

Davos 2016: Questions About Globalization’s End and What Comes Next

Posted by hkarner - 23. Januar 2016

Date: 23-01-2016
Source: Forbes

Each year the World Economic Forum convenes government, industry and activist leaders to offer regional and international proposals along with private-public partnerships. Uncertainty and the expectations for “fundamental, radical global shifts” have permeated the 2016 meeting, explains Paul Laudicina for Forbes. “How leaders manage this system shift in years to come will determine the course the world takes, either towards growth, stability, and integration, or towards fracture and contraction in an increasingly protectionist and isolated environment.” Alternatives to the current form of globalization might include islandization, polarization or a new form of globalization. Leaders meeting at Davos may prefer the new form of globalization, though that requires leadership that can articulate a vision, ensuring global and democratic conversations; demonstrate commitment to ideals and the rule of law with accountability and transparency; and forge connections among diverse cultures. Inequality threatens globalization, unless leaders develop agendas and rally citizens behind proposals that offer opportunity for all. – YaleGlobal

Globalization has stalled; prospects for the world may include islandization, polarization or a new form of globalization that requires leadership

Something is different on the Mountain this year. The tone of the Davos dialogue has shifted markedly in the nearly two decades I’ve trekked to the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum. The buzz has morphed from global exuberance in the roaring 90s, to post 9/11 shock, to recession obsession, to this year’s focus on fundamental, radical global shifts in process. But where are we headed? Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Europe Question in 2016

Posted by hkarner - 5. Januar 2016

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

JAN 4, 2016, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – At the cusp of the new year, we face a world in which geopolitical and geo-economic risks are multiplying. Most of the Middle East is ablaze, stoking speculation that a long Sunni-Shia war (like Europe’s Thirty Years’ War between Catholics and Protestants) could be at hand. China’s rise is fueling a wide range of territorial disputes in Asia and challenging America’s strategic leadership in the region. And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has apparently become a semi-frozen conflict, but one that could reignite at any time.

There is also the chance of another epidemic, as outbreaks of SARS, MERS, Ebola, and other infectious diseases have shown in recent years. Cyber-warfare is a looming threat as well, and non-state actors and groups are creating conflict and chaos from the Middle East to North and Sub-Saharan Africa. Last, but certainly not least, climate change is already causing significant damage, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and lethal. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Barbarians Inside the Gate

Posted by hkarner - 30. November 2015

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NOV 30, 2015, Project Syndicate

BERLIN – I am on a two-week European tour at a time that could make one either very pessimistic or constructively optimistic about Europe’s prospects.

First the bad news: Paris is somber, if not depressed, after the appalling terrorist attacks earlier this month. France’s economic growth remains anemic, the unemployed and many Muslims are disaffected, and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Front is likely to do well in the upcoming regional elections. In Brussels, which was semi-deserted and in lockdown, owing to the risk of terrorist attacks, the European Union institutions have yet to devise a unified strategy to manage the influx of migrants and refugees, much less address the instability and violence in the EU’s immediate neighborhood. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Europe’s Politics of Dystopia

Posted by hkarner - 29. Oktober 2015

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

OCT 29, 2015, Project Syndicate

TOKYO – The recent victory of the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland confirms a recent trend in Europe: the rise of illiberal state capitalism, led by populist right-wing authoritarians. Call it Putinomics in Russia, Órbanomics in Hungary, Erdoğanomics in Turkey, or a decade of Berlusconomics from which Italy is still recovering. Soon we will no doubt be seeing Kaczyńskinomics in Poland.

All are variations on the same discordant theme: a nationalist leader comes to power when economic malaise gives way to chronic and secular stagnation. This elected authoritarian then starts to reduce political freedoms through tight-fisted control of the media, especially television. Then, he (so far, it has always been a man, though France’s Marine Le Pen would fit the pattern should she ever come to power) pursues an agenda opposing the European Union (when the country is a member) or other institutions of supra-national governance.

He will also oppose free trade, globalization, immigration, and foreign direct investment, while favoring domestic workers and firms, particularly state-owned enterprises and private business and financial groups with ties to those in power. In some cases, outright nativist, racist parties support such government or provide an even deeper authoritarian and anti-democratic streak. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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The Middle East Meltdown and Global Risk

Posted by hkarner - 1. Oktober 2015

Photo of Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

OCT 1, 2015, Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – Among today’s geopolitical risks, none is greater than the long arc of instability stretching from the Maghreb to the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. With the Arab Spring an increasingly distant memory, the instability along this arc is deepening. Indeed, of the three initial Arab Spring countries, Libya has become a failed state, Egypt has returned to authoritarian rule, and Tunisia is being economically and politically destabilized by terrorist attacks.

The violence and instability of North Africa is now spreading into Sub-Saharan Africa, with the Sahel – one of the world’s poorest and most environmentally damaged regions – now gripped by jihadism, which is also seeping into the Horn of Africa to its east. And, as in Libya, civil wars are raging in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia, all of which increasingly look like failed states. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Roubini : The Markets Are Too Pessimistic About Chinese Growth

Posted by hkarner - 4. September 2015

Roubini Cernobbio 2015Roubini Global Economics Co-founder and Chairman Nouriel Roubini discusses China’s slowdown, his strategy for the markets and when the U.S. will raise interest rates. He speaks to Bloomberg’s Guy Johnson and Anna Edwards from the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy. (Source: Bloomberg) 4/9/2015

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A Financial Early-Warning System

Posted by hkarner - 27. August 2015

Date: 27-08-2015
Source: Project Syndicate

NOURIEL ROUBINIRoubini CC

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration. He has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank.

NEW YORK – Recent market volatility – in emerging and developed economies alike – is showing once again how badly ratings agencies and investors can err in assessing countries’ economic and financial vulnerabilities. Ratings agencies wait too long to spot risks and downgrade countries, while investors behave like herds, often ignoring the build-up of risk for too long, before shifting gears abruptly and causing exaggerated market swings.

Given the nature of market turmoil, an early-warning system for financial tsunamis may be difficult to create; but the world needs one today more than ever. Few people foresaw the subprime crisis of 2008, the risk of default in the eurozone, or the current turbulence in financial markets worldwide. Fingers have been pointed at politicians, banks, and supranational institutions. But ratings agencies and analysts who misjudged the repayment ability of debtors – including governments – have gotten off too lightly.

In principle, credit ratings are based on statistical models of past defaults; in practice, however, with few national defaults having actually occurred, sovereign ratings are often a subjective affair. Analysts at ratings agencies follow developments in the country for which they are responsible and, when necessary, travel there to review the situation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Limits of Monetary Policy and Stimulus – Low Growth is Unavoidable

Posted by hkarner - 19. August 2015

Monday, August 17, 2015

Roubini GrowthNouriel Roubini, Chairman Roubini Global Economics. Interviewed at the 38th edition of the annual workshop „Intelligence on the World, Europe, and Italy“.

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Nouriel Roubini predicts break-up of Eurozone unless Economic Growth is restored

Posted by hkarner - 4. August 2015

Saturday, August 1, 2015

 Roubini IG Metall

 American economist Nouriel Roubini said on Wednesday that the Eurozone will break up unless the member states restore economic growth.
The New York University professor was speaking at a conference organised by IG Metall, Germany’s biggest trade union, in Berlin.
He said that the Eurozone was not paying enough attention to job creation and GDP growth, because it was too focused on austerity. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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Alpha, Beta, and Beyond

Posted by hkarner - 27. Juli 2015

JUL 27, 2015 4, Project Syndicate 

NEW YORK – Even in normal times, individual and institutional investors alike have a hard time figuring out where to invest and in what. Should one invest more in advanced or emerging economies? And which ones? How does one decide when, and in what way, to rebalance one’s portfolio?

Obviously, these choices become harder still in abnormal times, when major global changes occur and central banks follow unconventional policies. But a new, low-cost approach promises to ease the challenge confronting investors in normal and abnormal times alike.

In the asset management industry, there have traditionally been two types of investment strategies: passive and active. The passive approach includes investment in indices that track specific benchmarks, say, the S&P 500 for the United States or an index of advanced economies or emerging-market equities. In effect, one buys the index of the market. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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